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I guess as palm enthusiasts those of us outside of the tropics cannot get tired of this topic.

Yesterday in the local paper was a feature story on how California's wine growing regions are in perile, that they did a new computer model study and found that the warming of various microclimates in Northern California will decimate the wine country areas.  Of course the wineries interviewed were optomistic, saying they'd alter their growing practices, but none denied the probable warming trend.  They did agree that the wine growing regions will be moving Northward up the Pacific coastline.  And as I've posted before, my microclimate has warmed by 10 degrees F in the last 50 years.

Perhaps they can convert to palm plantations!

I wonder if others are predicting changes of industries because of this yet.  How about Temecula area in SoCal?   Other parts of the world?  I do know that some areas are already experiencing great change, such as here, and other areas are not.  It's not homogeneous change, but pocketed.  And I wonder how it will affect palm growing in the subtropics and tropics, if at all.

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Stan

Last year there was a article in the Hayward paper of a local growing pineapples in his front yard planter bed.The brick type  you usually see as a bedding planter. He has grown them for the last three years. I have to post my Mango with MANY small fruits.Even i don't believe my eyes.

And my answer to those who say wait for the next big freeze-so what?..the ratcheting of the climbing temps is on.A below average winter will become far and few between.

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elHoagie

(Kathy @ Jul. 12 2006,11:46)

QUOTE
And I wonder how it will affect palm growing in the subtropics and tropics, if at all.

Kathy,

As you mentioned, global warming is not uniform over the globe.  In general, the largest changes are seen near the poles and the smallest changes near the equator.  I would guess the only changes in the low elevation tropics would be a shift in rainfall patterns, probably towards more precipitation.  Temperatures probably wouldn't change much.  Although there would probably be more/stronger tropical storms, which might not be good for palm growing....

Jack

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SubTropicRay

I agree Stan.  The only unfortunate thing is one bad winter is all it takes to ruin decades of growth.  In fact, forget winter averages.  You can have one bad night in an overall above average winter and the plants are toast.  

Ray

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spockvr6

(Ray, Tampa @ Jul. 12 2006,12:52)

QUOTE
I agree Stan.  The only unfortunate thing is one bad winter is all it takes to ruin decades of growth.  In fact, forget winter averages.  You can have one bad night in an overall above average winter and the plants are toast.  

Ray

Aint that the bane of the central FL palm garden  :(

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BobbyinNY
I agree Stan.  The only unfortunate thing is one bad winter is all it takes to ruin decades of growth.  In fact, forget winter averages.  You can have one bad night in an overall above average winter and the plants are toast.  

Ray

Ray, this is EXACTLY what frightens the pants off of me and why I want to move SOUTH of West Palm Beach...... Knowing me... if I lived in Central or Northern Florida, I'd be tempted to plant out my entire collection - and If I lost it all because of one night I'd be devastated... At least here in NY, I know I can't keep all my stuff outside without a huge greenhouse so I just winter everything over...but If I lived in a marginal area I would probably take the chance and then be SH##ing my pants every time a cold front came... DAMN CANADA !!!

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spockvr6

Bobby -

To be safe....stay south of WPB and as close to the water as you can afford!  Heck...just go straight to the southern Keys and be done with it!  

Many inland So. FL locations get colder than even where I am.  Its quite shocking to me really.

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BobbyinNY
...just go straight to the southern Keys and be done with it!

ahhhhh.... "Livin on spongecake.... watchin the sun bake"..

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spockvr6

"all of those tourists...covered with oil"........

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Dave-Vero

Regrettably, Puerto Rico is having severe economic problems.  Among other things, electricity is horribly expensive even by Long Island standards.  

However, the northwest corner of the island is developing a smallish tourist industry focusing on surfers and, I think, the upper crust.  The airport at Aguadilla (former Ramey Air Force Base) makes it convenient to NYC and now Orlando.

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Palmy

Here, its hard to tell that global warming is happening. The temps still dip down quite a bit in the winter. We have had a lot more rain though the past 10 years.

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Stan

Palmy,even the central valley didn't get snow.You must have a bad micro climate-an elevated cold air sink. parts of Orinda are near frost free  zone 16 (Sunset) and others near 14.

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BobbyinNY

The temperature diversity in California is amazing.... I've never seen a state that has so many different climates......

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spockvr6

(BobbyinNY @ Jul. 12 2006,15:28)

QUOTE
The temperature diversity in California is amazing.... I've never seen a state that has so many different climates......

No doubt.

I recall a few drives Ive made from inland desert areas towards the coast.  In very short periods, things change rapidly.

One time I drove from the inland deserts towards San Diego in a rental which happened to be a convertible.  It was baking hot and 110F in the desert.  I got fried the whole way with the top down.  By the time I crossed over the mountains and into San Diego, not only did I have to put the top up (it was too chilly), but I actually turned the heat on!

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chris78

Global warming is a hot topic.....but we don't really understand its causes and effects..

One point is that we are still recovering from the last ice age...but this recovery is not a streight line of temperature increase...but a series of warm ups followed by cool downs know as mini ice ages.

Also what some people see as warming in local areas is more to do with urban heat islands and not global warming. Especially in fast growing towns in metro areas.

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Walter John

This proof of global warmimg was sent to me yesterday.

I know it's a serious topic but I had to share this with someone else and the topics is being discussed here.

post-51-1152746354_thumb.jpg

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Stan

2016 is going to be some year at the beach...

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NBTX11

(BobbyinNY @ Jul. 12 2006,15:28)

QUOTE
The temperature diversity in California is amazing.... I've never seen a state that has so many different climates......

Watch Texas in the winter.  It can be 80 degrees in Deep South Texas at the same time there is a snowstorm blowing across the panhandle.  Over 800 miles from north to south.

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Jeff Nugent

Hmm, I expected the usual denial of any problem in this topic but not.

Don't assume that global warming means consistantly warmer temperatures.  What we are seeing and will probably see more of is unseasonal weather events which are often record breakers. ie hotest winter coldest summer wettest, driest, strongest winds, etc.

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bgl

QUOTE

The temperature diversity in California is amazing.... I've never seen a state that has so many different climates......

Watch Texas in the winter.  It can be 80 degrees in Deep South Texas at the same time there is a snowstorm blowing across the panhandle.  Over 800 miles from north to south.

Big deal! :laugh: Here on the Big Island you can leave the beach (80 degrees F or so), and after a two hour drive you can be on top of Mauna Kea, 13796 ft up, where it may be 30F and snowing (during the winter anyway). No need to drive 800 miles! So forget about a whole state, CA (and a very large one at that). Here we have much more climatic diversity on one single island, which is about twice the size of the state of Delaware.

Bo

And Wal, when I saw the photo you posted above I thought it was your backyard. Then I realized there were no palms, so I guess it must be your neighbor's? :P

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JakeK

I believe that global warming is a result of a more damaging occurence, desertification, not the cause of it.

There seems to be a shift in thinking towards this in the scientific community, and the results of desertification could be far worse than global warming by itself.

First of all the destruction of our tropical rainforests is a direct cause of desertification. The tropical rainforests help sustain the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The ITCZ as well as the Great Ocean Conveyor are the two principle moderators of Earth's climate. A fluctuation in the ITCZ would cause a climate changes globally as the ITCZ is responsible for maintaining proper atmospheric heat transfer from the tropics to the poles which is the main generator of precipitation in continental climates and arctic climates. The result would be increased desertification at higher latitudes creating shortages of arable land.

The actual consequences are much greater than not being able to grow a certain palm species or the new ability to grow a different palm species. As global warming is a result of desertification, global warming will be the cause of the slowing of the GOC which will in turn cause even more desertification in the form of long winter and short summers also reducing the amount of arable land.

Fortunately the cycle is completely natural and even if we lower our production of hydrocarbons the destruction of the rainforest will keep the ball rolling, remember that is a huge carbon sink and dead trees do not absorb CO2 nor do they maintain the necessary humidity levels for equitorial precipitation.

Humans are just the accelerant, like lighter fluid is to a fire. Nature will restore the balance, but the balance might not be compatible with humans.

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elHoagie

(JakeK @ Jul. 12 2006,21:41)

QUOTE
I believe that global warming is a result of a more damaging occurence, desertification, not the cause of it.

There seems to be a shift in thinking towards this in the scientific community, and the results of desertification could be far worse than global warming by itself.

First of all the destruction of our tropical rainforests is a direct cause of desertification. The tropical rainforests help sustain the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The ITCZ as well as the Great Ocean Conveyor are the two principle moderators of Earth's climate. A fluctuation in the ITCZ would cause a climate changes globally as the ITCZ is responsible for maintaining proper atmospheric heat transfer from the tropics to the poles which is the main generator of precipitation in continental climates and arctic climates. The result would be increased desertification at higher latitudes creating shortages of arable land.

The actual consequences are much greater than not being able to grow a certain palm species or the new ability to grow a different palm species. As global warming is a result of desertification, global warming will be the cause of the slowing of the GOC which will in turn cause even more desertification in the form of long winter and short summers also reducing the amount of arable land.

Fortunately the cycle is completely natural and even if we lower our production of hydrocarbons the destruction of the rainforest will keep the ball rolling, remember that is a huge carbon sink and dead trees do not absorb CO2 nor do they maintain the necessary humidity levels for equitorial precipitation.

Humans are just the accelerant, like lighter fluid is to a fire. Nature will restore the balance, but the balance might not be compatible with humans.

Jake,

I agree that desertification is causing global warming because it puts more CO2 in the air.  I tend to doubt it's the main cause, but it is a cause.

I don't understand how the tropical rainforests help maintain the ITCZ.  My understanding is that the ITCZ is formed roughly where the maximum heating of the Earth's surface is occurring.  This is generally near the equator, but it shifts north during the northern summer and south during the southern summer.  Over large bodies of water (like the Pacific), the albedo is fairly high and the latent energy stored in the ocean is so large that the ITCZ doesn't shift much.  But, over large landmasses (like Africa/Asia), the ITCZ can shift as high as 30 degrees latitude near India.  This is because landmasses generally don't have much latent heat and have a lower albedo than the ocean, which means they absorb more energy from the sun.  Since cleared land generally has a higher albedo than dense forest, I agree that clearing tropical forests will influence the ITCZ.  Since the land won't absorb as much energy from the sun, the ITCZ will not shift as far from the equator.  By far, the largest change in the Earth's climate will be that the summer rains at tropical latitudes will not occur as far from the equator.

Anyway, I understand how the location of the ITCZ will be changed slightly by desertification, but I don't see how this will change the strength of the ITCZ or the Hadley cells, especially since the ITCZ is located mosly over ocean.  If the strength of the ITCZ and the Hadley cells is unchanged, how will the transfer of energy from the equator to the poles be disrupted?

I'm not disputing what you're saying, I just don't understand it and I'd like to learn more.

Jack

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Neofolis

There arte numerous human activities that will have an undeniable contribution to global warming.  It annoys me when people deny global warming, because it is not hotter where they are.  Global warming means exactly that, the mean global temperature is increasing, why would someone think that that means every single place would get hotter.

Yes, humans are only an accelerant to the naturally occuring process and yes humans will be able to adapt, assuming temperatures don't increase too much.  The bigger problem caused by the faster than normal change is that it makes it more difficult for other species to adapt.  Animals may be able to migrate, depending on where they are and where would be available and accessible for the migratory process.  Plants are not so lucky.  Whilst they can move their distribution gradually thought pollination, it is unlikely to be rapid enough to keep up with the rate of change in many areas.  Human intervention is likely to be necessary to preserve many species.

California can always change their grape species and make different wines, up to a point, however I won't miss their wine if it should ever cease to be.

The slightly disturbing aspect of global warming with a human accelerant is that there is no way of forecasting how far things will change.  In this planets natural cycle, it has coped with many warming and cooling cycles, but this is not the case for other planets in our solar system, none of which could any longer sustain human life in their current state.  We need to avoid this planet going the same route and with so many humans even minimal contribution for each person still amounts to a huge influence.

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JakeK

Jack,

Your last sentence in the second paragraph sums up what I was trying to say much better than I could. Basically what would happen is that the monsoonal rains that much of Africa and Asia receive as a result of the ITCZ shifting northward and back southward again will drop. Many of these areas are already fairly dry for most of the year and any production from them comes during a narrow time frame when the rains stop but the temperatures aren't high enough to kill the crops outright or at least completely dry out the soil.

I read an interesting study a while back done with several models trying to forecast the results of coastal deforestation in West Africa. The models all basically said that deforestation over the semi-arid areas just south of the Sahara will have little effect on the ITCZ as it travels over that area, but deforestation along the coasts where the ITCZ effect's on land masses are greatest (I think that is correct) would cause a complete collapse of the monsoonal rains that replenish West Africa each year not just in the semi-arid areas north of the coast but along the coast as well. If I recall correctly, the ITCZ provides the catalyst for precipitation in many areas and many of those areas depend on less "moody" climates to sustain the energy of the ITCZ as it travels across land.

I hope that explains it a bit clearer. It's been awhile since my college days and I am trying to recollect those lectures and guest speakers.

The whole subject is very fascinating to me and if I can learn more, I will try to make sure I do.

Jake

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BobbyinNY

It's gonna be hotter in NY than MIAMI over the Next week... YEAHY!!!... GROW GROW GROW!!!!

MIAMI FORECAST

TODAY

Jul 14  Partly Cloudy

88°/78° 0%  

SAT

Jul 15  Partly Cloudy

87°/74° 10%  

 

SUN

Jul 16  Scattered T-Storms

87°/72° 30%  

 

MON

Jul 17  Scattered T-Storms

86°/73° 50%  

 

TUE

Jul 18  Isolated T-Storms

86°/75° 30%  

WED

Jul 19  Scattered T-Storms

86°/76° 40%  

THU

Jul 20  Isolated T-Storms

87°/75° 30%  

NEW YORK FORECAST:

TODAY

Jul 14  Sunny

87°/73° 0%  

SAT

Jul 15  Partly Cloudy

87°/73° 0%  

 

SUN

Jul 16  Partly Cloudy

91°/77° 0%  

MON

Jul 17  Sunny

93°/78° 20%  

 

TUE

Jul 18  Isolated T-Storms

94°/77° 30%  

WED

Jul 19  Isolated T-Storms

88°/74° 30%  

THU

Jul 20  Mostly Sunny

86°/73°

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NBTX11

Bobby,

I didn't realize LI had lows in the mid-upper 70's.  Sounds like A/C time.  If it's accompanied by high humidity, it is "Florida like".  Of course in FL it lasts for months and months on end.

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elHoagie

(JakeK @ Jul. 14 2006,08:32)

QUOTE
I hope that explains it a bit clearer. It's been awhile since my college days and I am trying to recollect those lectures and guest speakers.

The whole subject is very fascinating to me and if I can learn more, I will try to make sure I do.

Jake

Jake,

I think we were both trying to say similar things...

I'm also trying to remember what I learned in college.  I always have to spend a few minutes looking through my old textbooks to make sure I'm saying things correctly...

Jack

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Neofolis

Bobby you have better temperatures than us, but I think I prefer our forecast for the next week.

Sat 15th - Sunny

25°/11°C (77°/52°F)

Sun 16th - Sunny

27°/12°C (81°/54°F)

Mon 17th - Partly Cloudy

27°/13°C (81°/55°F)

Tues 18th - Sunny

28°/16°C (82°/61°)

Weds 19th - Partly Cloudy

27°/15°C (81°/59°F)

Thurs 20th - Partly Cloudy

24°/14°C (75°/57°F)

I know it's not as hot as there, but plenty of sun and warm by UK standards.

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BobbyinNY
Bobby,

I didn't realize LI had lows in the mid-upper 70's.  Sounds like A/C time.  If it's accompanied by high humidity, it is "Florida like".  Of course in FL it lasts for months and months on end

Yeah, in the summer our night temps are almost always above 70f...

It usually doesn't drop back into the 60's at night until September... then it starts dropping fast :(... In October it drops into the 50's at night and by November it's in the 40's... then it's all downhill until Mid-late April.

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BobbyinNY

Corey,

your Night temps are pretty low.... I imagine that it would be hard to grow stuff like bananas there....

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Exotic Life

Neofolis,

Why that "low" tempetures ? Londen is gonne be hotter ...

For me ..

Sun 16th , Sunny and dry

28C/82.4F

Mon 17th , Sunny and dry

29C/84.2F

Tues 18th , Sunny and dry

29C/84.2F

Weds 19th , Sunny and Dry

28C/82.4F

Thurs 20th , Sunny and dry

31C/87.8F

Fry 21th , Sunny and dry

32C/89.6F

The most of the time it's 2 or 3 Degrees warmer then the predicted, so that's gonna be a lot of 30's :)

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Darold Petty

I urge every reader to watch the Al Gore movie, "An Inconvienient Truth".

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Stan

What i dont get is that pre man- made global warming,i.e., the "Dinosaur days" resulted in a planet  tropical -subtropical from pole to pole. Man made global warming is causing a desert Earth. Why?

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Stan

Here's a thinker...would a dense planting of fast growing Eucs ALL through a future desert  Amazon by advanced beings(ha) cause the return of a rainforest pattern?.that would then kill the dry climate Eucs?..cant win when things go bad it looks...

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Neofolis

Robbin, London is generally hotter than here in the Summer.  Usually the Southeast is the hottest area of the UK during the summer, but where I am in the Southwest tends to have milder winters.

Bobby, our night time temperatures are invariably quite low, so things tend to grow slowly compared to somewhere with warmer nights, but my banana (Musa sikkimensis) is doing fine outside.  The cooler nights certainly make sleeping easier.

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JakeK

(Stan @ Jul. 15 2006,12:53)

QUOTE
What i dont get is that pre man- made global warming,i.e., the "Dinosaur days" resulted in a planet  tropical -subtropical from pole to pole. Man made global warming is causing a desert Earth. Why?

Global warming is a result of desertification which is a rapid conversion of grassland and dry forest into less arable land (desert). This is what is being proven to cause a "dangerous global warming." So therefore global warming is a result of desertification, not the other way around. At least this is what much scientific research being conducted today is concluding to.

Because land degradation and desertification are primarily fast conversions, very few natural occurences can cause such a rapid change (meteor strikes and plinian volcanic eruptions being the primary two) which means man is causing this change and not nature.

During the "Dinosaur days" our CO2 levels were much higher, but that didn't mean there wasn't any desert either, much of the landmass then was fairly arid for at least 1/2 the year. The misconception is that since temperate areas now were more tropical in climate back then that must mean it was rainforest and in some cases that was true, but in many areas it simply mean hotter year round and precipitation patterns were monsoonal, much like what exists in the tropics outside of the rainforests, i.e. dry forests and savannah. Think of much of the world being a "Sahel" type region.

I hope that helps the difference between the two eras with similar CO2 levels.

Jake

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Kris

hi Kathy,

you have inisiated a very useful topic,which is the current crisis

which is of most signifance on par with rise of AIDS Problem in the underdeveloped world.

Now if you ask about india and the effects of global warming.I would tell that our summers are more hot up by 5 to 6 degrees and previously during the summers in the evenings their would be cool sea breeze followed by mild/gentle rain fall reducing the mercury a bit.

past 3 years we are experincing hot dry summer and very wet rainy season followed by prolonged winter spell.this is not

the indian peninsula climate.and for the past 2 years in Madras(South India) we experienced tremmors originating from Indonesia & Andaman Nicobar Islands, but the damage was from last year rains,since Tamil-Nadu is a flat plain region the heavy torrential rain water stagnated put our peoples normal life out of Gear. the water stagnated for 3 months.

the goverment department all issued white paper blaming this calamity to global warming. and our trees got their roots rooted due to stagnant rain waters.

Kathy have watched cnn or bbc recently they showed Bombay

flooded with rain water these have become scean now.this is the 2 second year in a row that our people are experiencing this.and scientist beleive that the glacier in the everest and in the n & s poles the glaciers are melting resulting in more sea and rain water quantity.

Love,

Kris Achar(from South India_Madras).

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Palmy

If this continues, in Al gores movie, they showed how the land would be flooded. They showed the bay area also getting flooded and if that was the case, I think they would build a wall around SF and parts of the bay area. Think about it may cost 10 billion to get a wall in place think about how much real-estate there is. Just a theory off the top of my head.

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steve 9atx

I'm not an expert on this subject.  There are those who are, however...........

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/News/07142006_1990.htm

http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/0...gman_Report.pdf

It would almost be funny that they have discovered folks that seek to distort their data as a group if it weren't so sad.  As far as I'm concerned, the "hockey stick" model is debunked!

I have heard more credible evidence recently from climatologists and astronomers that we are entering a period of decreased solar activity that will result in global cooling - bad news for palm enthusiasts in marginal zones.

Anyone ever see that episode of the Twilight Zone where the two women in NYC are dying of heat prostration when one of them wakes up and figures out it was all a dream?  In reality the earth was moving away from the sun and they were actually freezing to death.

Steve

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elHoagie

Steve,

Here's my response to the last two articles.  In no way are these comments directed towards you, they are just critiques of the articles.

Your second article (which is based on the third) focuses on the "findings" of two Candians (one of whom is an oil industry consultant, the other an economist), along with some statisticians who aren't experts in the field of climatology.  It's easy for me to see why the two Canadians would have an interest in propogating the "belief" that global temperatures are not being increased by human activities.  

As a scientist, I'm extremely insulted by what Mr. Wegmen, one of the statisticians, implies about the scientific community.  He claims that peer reviewed articles are not properly critiqued because scientists hang together instead of trying to determine the truth.  I have been involved with the peer review process first hand, and I have never seen evidence of this type of dishonesty.  Also, for those who don't know, the peer review system is completely anonymous, no one knows who is reviewing his or her article and the reviewers have on idea who the author of the article is...

This "conspiracy theory" about the corruption of climatological scientist is the justification given for the fact the very few climatologists dispute that human activities are causing global temperatures to rise.  So, they had to rely on people "outside the field", like the two Canadians, to uncover the "truth".

Jack

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