Oct Stock Market Discussion..............

[trioderob]

Dean-

whats your next big move stock wise ?

what are you thinking about buying now ?

Edited October 2, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob,

As I have said, I don't see any bargains out there, nor do I see anything over extended or over priced. I see us in the middle of a trading range (bonds as well) - so no buys, no sells, just holds for me at this point. I remain fully invested with the ability to margin and add or hedge if I see a need. If things break out on the upside I may lessen my exposure to the higher yielding stocks in favor of more growth, but that is the only move(s) I can see at the moment.

I am still expecting my holdings (which I bought at depressed prices) will be higher 6-12 months from now, and will continue paying me juicy dividends. So until I see something at what I consider a long term inflection point, I'll just sit and watch. I only saw two such inflection points this year, so they don't come around that often.

[trioderob]

might not be a bad time to pick up some of this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QID

[redant]

I'd say the market has show remarkable resilience in light of all the turmoil, Syria, new fed reserve chairman, gov shutdown, deficit limit. blah blah blah. I'm staring to think (but not netting yet) that a huge upside may be in the cards.

[Dypsisdean]

I'd say the market has show remarkable resilience in light of all the turmoil, Syria, new fed reserve chairman, gov shutdown, deficit limit. blah blah blah. I'm staring to think (but not netting yet) that a huge upside may be in the cards.

A nice wall of worry..... And with favorable seasonality around the corner..... And with Rob looking at QID......

[Dypsisdean]

might not be a bad time to pick up some of this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QID

Rob,

I noticed an article on the link you posted from July 17th proclaiming that QID was oversold and a good time to buy. They didn't get it right then.

[redant]

The following is for information purpose only

NO COMMENTS ON THE FOLLOWING LINK PLEASE

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101082066

[tank]

Glad I sold FSLR . Gone up 5% since I sold it and is a solid green on a red day.

[trioderob]

oh Dean-

I can tell that you think like everyone else - try to see past the headlines and the obvious

that's my tip to you,

Bingo on my call - I nailed it

to perfection :

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QID

but I want to give you something because you have taken your time to help people here.

this guy is the best - read his site daily - you will learn alot from him:

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/

Edited October 3, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

oh Dean-

I can tell that you think like everyone else - try to see past the headlines and the obvious

that's my tip to you,

Bingo on my call - I nailed it

to perfection :

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QID

but I want to give you something because you have taken your time to help people here.

this guy is the best - read his site daily - you will learn alot from him:

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/

From the guru that has failed to ever make one real commitment in anything on these stock talks and games, why no practice portfolio to show us your talents rob?

[trioderob]

redant-

you teach me

i just recommended a fantastic web site

return the favor

i am all ears

Edited October 3, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

TRIN is not even low

this is a orderly sell off - not a panic sell off - yet

internals look horid

interesting

Edited October 3, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

SHOOTING ON CAPITAL HILL

[redant]

Apple seems to be at a very interesting technical area. I have found with commodities 250 days is more reliable the 200 day moving average, the other line is the 50 day.

apple.pdf

[trioderob]

IT BOUNCED OFF THE 150 DAY

WHAT DO YOU SEE ?

[Dypsisdean]

Glad I sold FSLR . Gone up 5% since I sold it and is a solid green on a red day.

At least your honest about it.

[Dypsisdean]

Bingo on my call - I nailed it

to perfection :

I would never cry "Bingo" until I closed out my position and put some money in the bank. And I would never gloat over a "call" that I didn't even act on. You could flip a coin and make a "call" every day here - and half the time you could come back and say you were right. But did you make any money???

I could just as easily claim I nailed it.

we are near the middle of the range. Next 400-500 pts could go either way - but will still be in the range. We'll see which way it breaks out. I am still anticipating to the upside.

[Dypsisdean]

From the guru that has failed to ever make one real commitment in anything on these stock talks and games, why no practice portfolio to show us your talents rob?

He recommends a QQQ short in passing as a possibility. Could of said he took a position. Could have joined the Fantasy Game and took a position. But didn't do either - yet he "nailed it." It seems he gets all excited about 1% daily moves he mentions, yet leaves buying and profiting on the 20-30% longer term moves to me.

[Moose]

IT BOUNCED OFF THE 150 DAY

WHAT DO YOU SEE ?

"Hyman Roth always makes money for his partners"

[trioderob]

Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:43 AM

$ 30,000.000,000 fed POMO today

read and learn :

http://www.newyorkfe...s/pomo/display/

they are pumping today.

if the rest of the week is up that's a different story

there are guys like Dean JUMPING UP AND DOWN thats today is a up day.

you have brokerage houses calling their clients saying this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime

be careful - this may drag on for a long time

say what you want - i called it right

you guys never saw it coming - LOL

at end of year we can talk total % up or down

O.K. GURUS - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ?

I MADE MY CALL - YOU MAKE YOURS

Edited October 4, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

you guys know that this is just for fun.

if i want to really learn something i read things like this:

BIS Quarterly Review, September 2013

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1309.htm

these are type of folks that actually know something

Edited October 4, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob,

Just speaking for myself - I have tried, but I have stopped paying attention to your calls since there are five or six every week and in so many different directions, sometimes separated by only hours.

How about limiting your calls to when you have enough conviction to actually take a position - they would be much easier to follow and give credit.

For a fun example: If you had said yesterday you were going to buy QID today at the open and sell at the close - you would have made the kind of call that means something. But for fun, let's assume you did that. I don't think that really qualifies for and "I nailed it." A quick calculation shows that trade netted about 2%. Take 33% off for short term gains, and you made about 1.3%. So even if you had done that, big deal. I'm going to do better than that in dividends alone next week for two positions I have (VZ & T). But I didn't plan on tooting my own horn for it.

[Moose]

Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:43 AM

$ 30,000.000,000 fed POMO today

read and learn :

http://www.newyorkfe...s/pomo/display/

they are pumping today.

if the rest of the week is up that's a different story

there are guys like Dean JUMPING UP AND DOWN thats today is a up day.

you have brokerage houses calling their clients saying this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime

be careful - this may drag on for a long time

say what you want - i called it right

you guys never saw it coming - LOL

at end of year we can talk total % up or down

O.K. GURUS - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ?

I MADE MY CALL - YOU MAKE YOURS

"Hyman Roth always makes money for his partners"

[trioderob]

we are trading on this rummer right now

lets see if it has legs:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/04/us/politics/debt-limit-impasse.html?_r=0

Mr. Boehner’s comments, recounted by multiple lawmakers, that he would use a combination of Republican and Democratic votes to increase the federal debt limit if necessary appeared aimed at reassuring his colleagues — and nervous financial markets — that he did not intend to let the economic crisis spiral further out of control.

Edited October 4, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

short sellers are afraid of a deal over the weekend.

if there is no deal Monday will be a big down day again

[Dypsisdean]

Interesting how Rob's QID "nailed it" call played out.

My chart shows that if you bought at the open at the market price on Thursday (the first chance to buy after his call), you would have bought it at $18.68

After 13 hours of trading it closed at $18.73 - up 5 cents.

Yet he "nailed it"?????

But of course he would have managed to buy at the low of the range, and sold at the high.

[Bags]

I sold apple and one other loser I had and have put it into atrs, my only stock now. This is a gamble as they have a FDA decision on one of their drugs on 10/14. I am going back and forth about getting out of individual stocks completely. If I do continue it will be primarily with dividend growth stocks that I will hold for a very long time. In my opinion this is the best way to make money in the market with individual stocks.

Thanks for the insight Rob. Good news stocks go up and bad news stocks go down? I couldn't agree more, but this only helps if you know which way it is going to go therefor completely meaningless.

[Dypsisdean]

I sold apple and one other loser I had and have put it into atrs, my only stock now. This is a gamble as they have a FDA decision on one of their drugs on 8/14. I am going back and forth about getting out of individual stocks completely. If I do continue it will be primarily with dividend growth stocks that I will hold for a very long time. In my opinion this is the best way to make money in the market with individual stocks.

Thanks for the insight Rob. Good news stocks go up and bad news stocks go down? I couldn't agree more, but this only helps if you know which way it is going to go therefor completely meaningless.

Aaron - keep it up and you will be one satisfied investor when you are my age.

[redant]

As I said before it really is hard to beat the index's, very few pros do it so some years maybe you get lucky, but not all years or your using black magic. Div growth stocks may not do as well as others in in environment of increasing interest rates, which MAY be in the future.

Your picks for the practice trading have been performing great considering the environment.

[Bags]

Redant,

What are the best stocks for a rising interest rate environment? I am mostly thinking of stocks I can hopefully hold forever. I am also not convinced interest rates are going to go up significantly any time soon. I wonder how the US would pay its debt at 6% instead of 2%.

[trioderob]

Rob,

As I have said, I don't see any bargains out there, nor do I see anything over extended or over priced.

Dean -

do you think that just because you write something in an authoritative tone is makes it correct ?

there are many many stocks out there that have gone up in a stratospheric parabola.- that's not over extended ?

talk to me about this one- overpriced ? fair priced ? bargain ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCLN+Interactive#symbol=pcln;range=my;compare=^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Edited October 4, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob,

As I have said, I don't see any bargains out there, nor do I see anything over extended or over priced.

Dean -

do you think that just because you write something in an authoritative tone is makes it correct ?

there are many many stocks out there that have gone up in a stratospheric parabola.- that's not over extended ?

talk to me about this one- overpriced ? fair priced ? bargain ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCLN+Interactive#symbol=pcln;range=my;compare=^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

When you ask for an opinion, I have given you one. An opinion is neither right or wrong - it is only a judgement that another may disagree with.

Perhaps I should have used different terminology - I didn't know you would dissect it so finely. Please substitute "over extended" with "over valued." And just because a stock has "gone up in a stratospheric parabola," that does not make it over valued. And there are numerous criteria on which to measure value - it's subjective.

While I am sure there are many stocks out there that are over/under valued - I confess, I do not follow and analyze all of the thousands of stocks. And I do not ever consider certain stocks depending on sector, size, short interest, outstanding shares, P/E, yield, etc.

So, again - for a majority of the stocks/markets that I have followed for decades, I find them closer to fairly valued than over or under valued. I sense a balance of bulls and bears - no irrational exuberance, and no doom and gloom mania (except for you). But that's just my opinion, that I offered since you asked.

[redant]

Redant,

What are the best stocks for a rising interest rate environment? I am mostly thinking of stocks I can hopefully hold forever. I am also not convinced interest rates are going to go up significantly any time soon. I wonder how the US would pay its debt at 6% instead of 2%.

IF, IF IF IF, get the point, I as you are not convinced interest rates going up much more in the near future but there is a big possibility they will, the banks and financial would prosper from this. Just look at what many of the big div stocks have done as of lately, T, VZ, all utilities, just to mention a few. Most index's not far from highs, the div players far off, compare something like HDV the the S&P, or better yet compare to XLF (financial etf)

[redant]

Dean, you still shotr Tesla in youn play account, you didn't light up the model S just to make a score in the play world did you.

Edited October 5, 2013 by redant

[Dypsisdean]

Redant,

What are the best stocks for a rising interest rate environment? I am mostly thinking of stocks I can hopefully hold forever. I am also not convinced interest rates are going to go up significantly any time soon. I wonder how the US would pay its debt at 6% instead of 2%.

Aaron,

I waited to let Redant answer first, but let me add a couple of thoughts.

The overriding factor at work is higher rates mean there are other financial vehicles that can compete for capital and that produce income. So, generally higher rates are not good for any stocks. But worse for the higher yielding stocks.

But there are some qualifications. Like why are rates rising? Is it because of inflation, or because the economy is "heating up" - not always the same thing - example - stagflation. And the rate of any rise is also important. Is it steady and orderly, therefore predicable, or is it volatile and unpredictable? And of course the ultimate rate itself is a factor. We have become way too accustomed to historically low rates. So what may seem high today, the market accepted and did well with in the recent past.

[redant]

HDV verses XLF, 1 year chart, HDV is the blue line (not the moving average blue line) I got out of the vast majority of div stocks in late spring and put some of that into XLF and BX (housing play).

[Bags]

Thanks Dean and Redant. I will keep that in mind. I did hold Wells Fargo for a while and it was one of my best performers. It would probably be one to continue to benefit with rising rates? Probably why it is Buffets biggest position. For me so hard to guess as to what is going to happen though.

[Dypsisdean]

For me so hard to guess as to what is going to happen though.

Rob will tell you.

[trioderob]

"Down we go" is my call....................

Dean here is your call - I think you could not be more wrong

Posted 30 September 2013 - 03:32 PM

Quote

I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover' - Dean

Edited October 7, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob,

1) The futures are already down big. Are you predicting we go down further from here - or are you hoping we didn't notice? It looks like the market is going to open down over 100 pts. But that's not a "call" - that's just checking the quote.

2) Small error. Check again - I didn't say that.