Socal Cycad Market

[Bill Nun]

I have been doing a great deal of research the past few months in anticipation of beefing up my plant collection but now I'm getting cold feet and heres why: I've started compiling data from every cycad grower I know in San Diego county and surrounding areas trying to figure out who's got the best deals on which plant. I'm a bit surprised to discover that the cycad market appears to bear a striking resemblance to the real estate market.

1. There is a ton of inventory out there that is not moving or moving very slowly.

2. A handful of collectors are trying to sell their entire collection.

3. Nurseries like Rancho Soledad report "at lease one call day" from people trying to unload cycads

4. Backyard growers have been cultivating like mad to try to cash in.

5. The guys with the most money invested are still holding out to get yesteryears prices while continuing to accrue holding costs.

6. The economy sucks

It seems like with all these factors in play, we could be getting close to a big deflation in prices. Should I hold off on doing anything for a while or am I missing a big part of the story?

[MattyB]

You might be right. Sounds like the plants aren't as important to you as getting a good deal. I understand that, but I'm sure you can find lots of plants for fair prices now, without waiting it out for the absolute lowest rock bottom prices ever. If youre not trying to buy low and resell high, but have a passion and love for the plants, then a few dollars wont matter, when your walking around your beautiful garden. That garden may never happen if youre always waiting for the deal. Are you the type of guy who tells everyone how much each plant cost when giving a tour? Thats just annoying.

[Bill Nun]

You might be right. Sounds like the plants aren't as important to you as getting a good deal. I understand that, but I'm sure you can find lots of plants for fair prices now, without waiting it out for the absolute lowest rock bottom prices ever. If youre not trying to buy low and resell high, but have a passion and love for the plants, then a few dollars wont matter, when your walking around your beautiful garden. That garden may never happen if youre always waiting for the deal. Are you the type of guy who tells everyone how much each plant cost when giving a tour? Thats just annoying.

Thanks for the input Matt..I didnt mean to sound like I was complaining about plants being overpriced and hopefully this thread doesnt turn into speculation about me and what I'm about. I'm just trying to determine whether my assessment of the market is correct or not. If its not correct, what am I missing?

Edited June 1, 2012 by Bill Nun

[LJG]

Good first post and all your points are spot on. I just had this conversation with some collectors the other day. Too many people holding on to broken dreams in my opinion. They thought they had a golden egg and sat on it only to find out a bunch of others all did the same thing. I just laugh when I see some of the pricing out there still. I can understand for things like Hirsutus but not what I have seen on many others. True that generally the cost of a cycad goes up with time, but once it is no longer rare or has demand, time really becomes irrelevant. People can't give the common greens away anymore. I had a chance to but a few various Macrozamias with basketball sized caudex for $100. The guy paid hundreds for them 10 years ago he said.

For me first and foremost, Cycads are just part of the design element of the garden. I love having them and I certainly enjoy the rare stuff, but I won't get gouged. I will simply wait my time for the right price in my head. My garden will go on without a Woodii. I would never be in a hurry to buy a cycad. Shop around as there are many deals to be had!

[MattyB]

I don't know about markets and stuff. I like to speculate about what people are about. I'm sure there are some experts here who will chime in with some of that market insight. we'd love to see some pics of your collection. What part of town do you live in? What kind of microclimate do you have? What do you grow besides cycads?

[Dypsisdean]

I think comparing the cycad market to the real estate market is valid. So - what does that mean? Does that mean you continue to rent until the market bottoms? Does that mean you keep looking, keep hoping, keep planning, but afraid to pull the lever. Nobody is going to ring a bell for you when the prices hit bottom - they might already have done that, and you will just miss the boat if you are worried about not getting the absolute best price. Many people were left behind the last time there was a downturn in the housing market, and they watched for over 10 years as prices never retreated.

Buying for a garden is just like buying a house. Don't worry about what the price will be in 6 months - because you can't recapture the joy and time lost while sitting on the sidelines for those 6 months, not enjoying your own house and garden. Think about what things will look like and how much pleasure you will have realized in 10 years. I think it is safe to say prices for houses and cycads will be more in 10-15 years than they are today - especially the prime real estate and rare well cared for plants.

If you intend to make quick money on your plants, you may just find yourself in the same boat as those you are buying from. But if your plan is to derive pleasure over many years then you will be a winner. However, if you are going to keep score based on the value of your collection month to month, then good luck - you will need it.

[MattyB]

Thats what it sounded like in my head.

[DoomsDave]

Good deals are as perennial as cycads

if your patience also is

[DoomsDave]

Bill nice to meet you!

Welcome to our merry band, in our merry little land . ..

Palms ain't cycads, but, well, obsession crosses many boundaries.

[Palmlover]

In this market I found some great deals on Cycads. Up to 50% off what people were asking during the market boom! I buy with no care for resale. I'm in for the long haul. I buy it cause it makes my yard look nice and down the road if I decide to get rid of a cycad and break even I'm happy. My 2 cents!

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

I am in Florida, not SoCal, but I figure things are pretty much the same here as there. The Real Estate market seems to have bottomed or even picked up a percentage point or two, but that does not influence my plant buying. I am buying some Encephalartos from CFKingfish today because I want to add to the Arboretum and he has good deals and delivers.

Maybe we all can plant these things without fear that they will be stolen by lowlifes in the dark of night now. No more chains, rebar and microchips?

[Tomw]

Bill,

Welcome, you bring up some valid points. I too like to get a good deal, looking around and planning what I want is all part of the fun! I live in South Florida and the availability for the South African blues are particularly hard and expensive to come buy. I’m in it for the long hall, so I decided to buy a couple of seedlings. I find that I actually prefer the seedlings now, I love watching flush and they are so cool when small. I find that I have a more personal relationship with my small cycads, than I do with the bigger ones that I’ve planted out.

I think it is safe to say prices for houses and cycads will be more in 10-15 years than they are today - especially the prime real estate and rare well cared for plants.

Dean,

I agree with most of your post, but I respectfully disagree with part of your assumption that prices for houses and cycads will be more in 10-15 years. Will house prices probably be higher in 10-15 years YES! Will cycad prices be higher in 10-15 years, not so sure, but maybe? As these rare cycads get older and start to cone, more and more enthusiast and people in the business will learn how to pollinate the cones. How many viable seeds can you get from one cone? How long dose it take for a (I know that it varies from cycad to cycad) cycad to go from seedling to a mature coning plant? If you could build a house and in 10-15 years pollinate it and from that one house you could get 200 – 400 baby houses that you could grow into big houses; what would that do to the housing market? I remember about 8-10 years ago how it was hard and expensive to find a large Wodyetia bifurcata, now there a dime a dozen.

[Darold Petty]

Len, if you really want an E. woodii, my Nigerian friend is having a special, discount sale this month !

[Mandrew968]

You might be right. Sounds like the plants aren't as important to you as getting a good deal. I understand that, but I'm sure you can find lots of plants for fair prices now, without waiting it out for the absolute lowest rock bottom prices ever. If youre not trying to buy low and resell high, but have a passion and love for the plants, then a few dollars wont matter, when your walking around your beautiful garden. That garden may never happen if youre always waiting for the deal. Are you the type of guy who tells everyone how much each plant cost when giving a tour? Thats just annoying.

Thanks for the input Matt..I didnt mean to sound like I was complaining about plants being overpriced and hopefully this thread doesnt turn into speculation about me and what I'm about. I'm just trying to determine whether my assessment of the market is correct or not. If its not correct, what am I missing?

Welcome to the forum, Bill. I think it all depends on what will be rare later on down the road. Tom had a good point with Wodyetias, but so did Matty--If you find the right house and you can afford to get it, the only thing you will be worrying about is whether you can go ahead and get it, before someone else does. However what I like and what others like can differ. I think the right Cycad can be a great investment, if you don't fall in love with it, several years after!

Edited June 1, 2012 by Mandrew968

[tropicalb]

apparently bill...when it comes to cycads, you simply just haven't yet met the right people.

there is so much to say here, but i won't be the one to say it.

[Bill Nun]

I think the blue horridus is a prime example of a plant that was rare 10 years ago but has now been cultivated to the point of being nearly as common as a spinulosum due to its popularity.

[Tomw]

I think the blue horridus is a prime example of a plant that was rare 10 years ago but has now been cultivated to the point of being nearly as common as a spinulosum due to its popularity.

EXACTLY!!!

[LJG]

Len, if you really want an E. woodii, my Nigerian friend is having a special, discount sale this month !

Thanks for looking out for me

[XYZ]

Bill:

Kudos on a most interesting post and follow up that partially explodes the myth that cycads (or any kind of plant for that matter) should be viewed as investments.

For a wide variety of reasons I respectfully disagree with Dean and say that, barring hyperinflation ever hitting the US due to excess, unsterilized money-printing by the Fed ever coming home to roost or huge numbers of coning-sized plants in both privateers and nurserymen's hands being abandoned to die over the next several years, I see no real chance that cycad prices will ever approach levels seen during fast money days of yore. As a somewhat tenuous but relevant reference, over the past month I have just watched an acquaintance in forced liquidation unsuccessfully try and monetize the beautiful and well-grown contents of a 35,000 sq. ft. once successful and somewhat famed orchid nursery near San Francisco...even at 25 cents or less on the dollar, it was bid wanted. A frank and honest conversation with almost any nursery grower in this area that deals with any of the exotica almost always reveals a great deal of concern about the future of the biz.

That having been said, I do agree with both Matty and Dean that, if you have the dosh and have been bit by the bug, by all means don't forestall a plant purchase that will enhance your gardening/collecting pleasure just because it may see a nominal price decline over the next couple months or years. In my own case, I mentally assign a monetary value of zero to any new purchase and find this very liberating.

Today, Americans buy ca. 14 million cars and light trucks every year that take a huge depreciation hit the moment that wheel them off the lot, yet no-one complains that most car values (Ferrari Enzos and similars aside) depreciate with depressing rapidity. People in the U.S. might want to consider any investment or purchase in a similar light. There is no such thing (nor should there be) as a guaranteed positive return.

Not even (or especially) in residential RE.

Cheers,

J

[MattyB]

Wow. I feel smarter now. Good writting. Thanks.

[Stevetoad]

I see washies and queens for sale on craigslist all day long for 1000$ what a steal!!!

[Dypsisdean]

For a wide variety of reasons I respectfully disagree with Dean and say that, barring hyperinflation ever hitting the US due to excess, unsterilized money-printing by the Fed ever coming home to roost or huge numbers of coning-sized plants in both privateers and nurserymen's hands being abandoned to die over the next several years, I see no real chance that cycad prices will ever approach levels seen during fast money days of yore.

Jay,

I can not take issue your statement. But let me add some qualifications to what may have been a overly simplistic assertion.

Also, I think the original question was not whether prices would return to the lofty prices of past, but would they go lower. And my thinking was that a 1 in. caudex cycad purchased today with the 15 years of added growth, would be worth more than a 1 in. caudex purchased anew in 15 years. At any rate, even if you could buy "like for like" for less in 15 years, is the wait worth it - with nothing to enjoy in the interim?

But as you took into account, even without "hyperinflation" the dollar you don't spend today will lose 30-40% of its value in 15 years, even at today's low rate of inflation. So keep your money in your mattress and wait for a deal - and hope it loses value slower than cycads might. Or invest your money, but then your are at the same speculative quandary you are with cycads.

So Bill, I think the main consideration in getting a useful answer to your question is "what are you trying to accomplish by purchasing and growing cycads?" Is it for profit, or pleasure? Or it sounds as if you may be the type who hates to buy something only to find another store puts in on sale the following month.

[Bill Nun]

So Bill, I think the main consideration in getting a useful answer to your question is "what are you trying to accomplish by purchasing and growing cycads?" Is it for profit, or pleasure? Or it sounds as if you may be the type who hates to buy something only to find another store puts in on sale the following month.

I'm purchasing for pleasure but I usually sell several seedlings once they reach 3 years of age in order to fund a larger purchase so I do rely somewhat on increases in value. I guess I'm just trying to do my best to understand what is happening in the marketplace so I can plan accordingly.

[Vincent]

The cycad market is a microeconomic snapshot of the broader macroeconomy. There has been across the board deflation in many goods and services, regardless if you live in California or Florida. Supply continues to grow as more people liquidate, just as demand dwindles, forcing prices down. This is how the free market economy functions. There is some talk of more quanitative easing- QE3- in time for the election.

This artifical printing of money, digital money not worth the paper it is not printed on, is a quick fix. Then, like any addiction, the economy will need another fix, QE4 and such. This is not a sustainable trajectory. The end result will be hyperinflation. So, you could see an Encephalartos gratus seedling priced at $3000 in the next two years. Then again, bread could be $10000 a loaf. Anyone recall the Weimar republic?

Trillions of dollars in wealth have evaporated over the past four years. Maybe monetizing the debt is the only option at this point.

[Mark lasvegas]

Agreed. How likely is it the U.S. will pay back it's i.o.u. without a hyperinflation?. Not likely.

[Ice Blue]

Hi Bill,

I think I have to agree with Burt's post in that, as respectfully as possible, I think you haven't yet met the right people. The cycad growers that I know are savvy business people who have priced their products according to market demands. They are making good money and their sales are very brisk, especially with the blues. For example one grower sold out of blues last summer. I waited for his seedlings to be ready in the spring. However ALL of his blues were bought out even before they even flushed their first leaf! I couldn't buy anything. Often when growers get blue seedlings or rare greens or dioons etc. in you have to jump on it right away or they're gone. A lot of these growers keep a lower profile because truthfully the cycad world does attract thieves and scumbags. Some growers simply refuse to sell to anyone that they don't know personally. It's almost like you have to be a "made man" to be able to buy from them. In my opinion all of this indicates that instead of being on the brink of a pricing catastrophe the cycad market is alive and thriving.

Also yes there are some nurseries that do have their cycads priced high, but they DO make sales. Some nurseries price low and do a lot of volume but others choose to price high and do less volume, but they make more money per cycad when they complete their sales. A lot of them have a stable list of clients that trust them and prefer to do business only with them. Why? Because many of the rare cycads are very difficult to tell apart and unscrupulous sellers can take advantage of this claim to sell a rare species that is in reality a more common one. It would be hard to tell them apart until they cone in 20 years. So people will pay a little more to buy from a nursery that they trust and that can provide provenance and reliable documentation.

Lastly, unlike palms, cycads, and especially blue encephalartos are very difficult to propagate. For encephalartos the natural pollinating insects are not present here so everything has to be hand pollinated. You have to have male and females of coning size and you have the knowledge and skill and possibly refrigeration capacity to be able to successfully pollinate them, and create viable seed. Experts are set up nicely for this, but unlike with palms, the layman is simply not equipped for this. Plus the blues are of course slower and and on top of this will only cone in certain environmental conditions.

There is a lot more to say but basically my opinion, as someone who has bought, sold and kept a lot of cycads, in Southern California the cycad market is very brisk and a lot of sales are being made. From what I have experienced I don't see any indicators of an impending market crash. I think the crash already occurred some time ago and the savvy businesspeople have now priced their products accordingly.

I

[rprimbs]

I think the blue horridus is a prime example of a plant that was rare 10 years ago but has now been cultivated to the point of being nearly as common as a spinulosum due to its popularity.

I agree they're becoming less rare, and even less valuable as time passes. I wouldn't even be totally shocked if varieties like E. horridus started showing up at big box stores like Home Depot and Lowe's.

And some of the rare Encephalartos like nubimontanus -- are not that uncommon anymore. And not even that expensive. I've seen 1 inch plants for $60. But I've also seen a few growers trying to get as much $300 for that same size.

I think rare cycads like E. latifrons, E. hirsutis, E. heenanii, E. brevifoliolatus, E. woodii, will always be valuable and expensive. But I could be wrong.

[cycadjungle]

I think your comments on the cycad market if fairly correct, whether it be in your area, or anywhere in the US right now. You can pretty much say the same thing for the woody ornamental market as well. There aren't as many houses going in and there is a lot less landscaping in general going on. Some people are cutting their prices just to stay alive, and many nurseries are totally going out of business. The big difference between the cycad market in Florida compared to the market in California is that there are more cycad nurseries in California compared to Florida, thus creating a lot more competition, and, prices for larger cycads in California, especially Encephalartos species, has always been almost twice the price, as they have been in Florida.

It used to be, before the internet existed, that some people were asking vey high prices because it all mattered on WHO you knew, and when they saw that they were dealing with a person who didn't know where else to get a certain species, they would jack it up extra, because they knew they would get it. There are still people over your way that don't have specific prices listed and they wait to see who the customer is, and then they will tell you the price. Since the internet, finding rare plants in general is a lot easier for the new person, and if you have enough money, you can have a huge, new collection in no time. It used to be that you could only buy a certain amount of cycads with just money, but if you wanted something really special, you would have to be able to trade something good for the something good that someone else had.

There again, with the cycad market, there are actually several sub markets and each sub-market has a totally different situation. There are really high priced encephalartos species, mainly in California, that go for very high prices, and then, even in the same genus, there are very nice looking plants that can be used in the general landscape market, that go for a more resonable price, in comparison. There is also the cycad seed market.

I personally, never invested in the super rare encephalartos species, mainly because there was no way in hell that I would pay $1000+ for a small plant that I could easily kill. I have been put down by some prospective customers in the past, because I couldn't provide them with these super rare plants and I have always just refered them to someone who did. For my own pleasure, when I found a good deal on one of these rare plants, I would finally buy one or two of them, but haven't really thought about how much I could make on them, but just be happy I get to look at them every day, because, even if I do have a cycad nursery, many of the plants are MY plants and they might only ever be for sale, once I'm gone and my wife sells them all for a dollar each. At least for me, when I get to buy myself a "fun" cycad, I still get to write it off, because I can still use it for propagation some day, right?

Many cycad species are much cheaper because people like myself have made a point to propagate the species, thus making them more common, thus making the plants cheaper to buy compared to the prices of the same species when they first came out for sale. The species that have kept their high price are the ones that people are not propagating yet, or ARE being propagated, but don't tell any of the public about and hoard all the material for themselves, and their very close friends. This IS happening a lot more than people realize in the SoCal area because there are plenty of old timey collectors out there with houses covered in rare cycads, but are totally off the grid. Some of the younger guys out there who like to beat the bushes, are out there pollinating these people's plants and making new seeds and seedlings, and in another 5 years, people in your area will start seeing more of these plants being made available. There are even hirsutus seeds out there, and euryphyllidia plants being made available if you know the right people!

You mention the smaller people who are dumping their cycads. Many new people look at the prices and try to get in on the "big money" they can make on cycads. Anyone who has a good business sense quickly sees that there is not a lot of big money in growing cycads. Everything takes so much time, and if you look at what you can make on anything that grows faster, you can see that just growing cycads for a living is not a good idea. You really need to just LOVE these plants to be dumb enough to do this for a living, and just be happy with what you do make. There is still good, fast, money to be made with rare cycads, but the people who are doing this, are the go getters out there who are mainly brokering the plants, and know a lot of people who will buy these plants, and they are out there hitting it hard to make these deals. You won't be seeing these prices on the internet anywhere. Those plants are bought and sold way too fast to be put on a long term price list.

Sorry for the long post, but there are only a few people out in the world that really keep up with what is going on with cycads. Before the internet, I regularly had a $300 a month long distance bill because I was calling people all over the world, and pretty much, if anybody was bringing something in, I knew about it, one way or the other, even when they were bringing in the plants illegally, you would finally find out about them from someone who had a big mouth and couldn't help bragging about what they had done. I don't keep up with that kind of thing any more. I have about 30,000 cycads and there is only one species that I still really want, and that plant isn't even a good grower, so if I never get that one, I don't really care all that much. I still hear a lot oabout what is happening out there though. I constantly get phone calls and e-mails from people who have bought plants from someone else and when it is dying, they ask me for help to try and save their plants. Or they ask me if a certain price is a good deal, or they tell me about how they have been ripped off by a certain dealer, and all kinds of things like that. One of the bad things going on right now that I hear about from your area are the people who are selling cycads that they know were stolen from a certain nursery and are even bragging about it to their friends, and don't realize that their freinds can't keep their mouths shut when they are talking to other people that they think they can trust. Whether anything legal ever gets done about their situation remains to be seen, but this kind of situation is appalling and should not be tolerated by anyone who truly knows and cares about what is right and what is wrong. For this reason, I am glad I don't live in California.

[LJG]

Hi Bill,

I think I have to agree with Burt's post in that, as respectfully as possible, I think you haven't yet met the right people. The cycad growers that I know are savvy business people who have priced their products according to market demands. They are making good money and their sales are very brisk, especially with the blues. For example one grower sold out of blues last summer. I waited for his seedlings to be ready in the spring. However ALL of his blues were bought out even before they even flushed their first leaf! I couldn't buy anything. Often when growers get blue seedlings or rare greens or dioons etc. in you have to jump on it right away or they're gone. A lot of these growers keep a lower profile because truthfully the cycad world does attract thieves and scumbags. Some growers simply refuse to sell to anyone that they don't know personally. It's almost like you have to be a "made man" to be able to buy from them. In my opinion all of this indicates that instead of being on the brink of a pricing catastrophe the cycad market is alive and thriving.

Also yes there are some nurseries that do have their cycads priced high, but they DO make sales. Some nurseries price low and do a lot of volume but others choose to price high and do less volume, but they make more money per cycad when they complete their sales. A lot of them have a stable list of clients that trust them and prefer to do business only with them. Why? Because many of the rare cycads are very difficult to tell apart and unscrupulous sellers can take advantage of this claim to sell a rare species that is in reality a more common one. It would be hard to tell them apart until they cone in 20 years. So people will pay a little more to buy from a nursery that they trust and that can provide provenance and reliable documentation.

Lastly, unlike palms, cycads, and especially blue encephalartos are very difficult to propagate. For encephalartos the natural pollinating insects are not present here so everything has to be hand pollinated. You have to have male and females of coning size and you have the knowledge and skill and possibly refrigeration capacity to be able to successfully pollinate them, and create viable seed. Experts are set up nicely for this, but unlike with palms, the layman is simply not equipped for this. Plus the blues are of course slower and and on top of this will only cone in certain environmental conditions.

There is a lot more to say but basically my opinion, as someone who has bought, sold and kept a lot of cycads, in Southern California the cycad market is very brisk and a lot of sales are being made. From what I have experienced I don't see any indicators of an impending market crash. I think the crash already occurred some time ago and the savvy businesspeople have now priced their products accordingly.

I

Thanks for your reply. You raise some great points. In reading it the first thing that came to question for me is what's "Good Money"? I have never seen a cycad dealer become rich but I have seen rich people become cycad dealers. SoCal has quite a few of those types just like one of the people you hinted about that likes to keep on the downlow. If you want to talk of price drops, I just picked up a $125 Dolo seedling. They were just going around. Just like $150 Latifronds seedlings. You couldn't even get seed for those prices a while back. And remember, cycads are slow and still somewhat 'new'. It won't take much more time for the many backyard growers to popup everywhere with seedlings and pups from their plants. It is already happening. It is my belief most larger guys hyperinflate the pricing in the market and many others try to convince buyers it is still a hot market. Just like real estate agents before the crash, even with flashing red lights going off. I guess your comments lead to a good point in that it all depends on your definition of good business and what one should be making for their time. To me, there is nothing "brisk" about the market. Sure you can make a great living, and many do. But it sure ain't easy! Yes, sales are made, but I see only an increase in inventory, and that isn't good if you are looking to cash in later. Like many have said here, buy the plants because you enjoy them. Don't buy them as part of some retirement strategy.

[palmsnbananas]

Bump.. what do you guys think about this now. I believe were amidst the great cycad-market crash of 2012-13. I've only been around for a while but I've seen prices fall so low that I can reasonably procure almost any species for under 90$, the list of super-rare species is dwindling and sure there's still stuff out there like hirsutus but everything else has seemed to have fallen to the wayside and become quite affordable. I've have grown and sold cycads and during the process of getting them up to size prices have fallen to the point where I think I shouldn't have even started, good thing I actually want some of the plants in my garden and am selling on the side as a hobby, I can imagine if you went all-in big business style you could be sitting on a huge amount of devalued/devaluating assets, and it seems like the price drop is exponential, with some species becoming so common that I don't know why anyone would sell them at all (or just that the profits must be extremely small). What do you guys think???

[virtualpalm]

I haven't purchased or sold many cycads lately, so I can't really speak to the general status of cycad pricing at the moment... other than to say the prices on Macrozamia macdonnellii are ridiculous right now. While it is a cool plant, I have no idea why this plant has become so "valuable" all of a sudden. One other observation is that seedlings on eBay seem to be more readily available now than ever before but prices seem to be staying up there even with so much competition.

[edbrown_III]

 

I think your comments on the cycad market if fairly correct, whether it be in your area, or anywhere in the US right now. You can pretty much say the same thing for the woody ornamental market as well. There aren't as many houses going in and there is a lot less landscaping in general going on. Some people are cutting their prices just to stay alive, and many nurseries are totally going out of business. The big difference between the cycad market in Florida compared to the market in California is that there are more cycad nurseries in California compared to Florida, thus creating a lot more competition, and, prices for larger cycads in California, especially Encephalartos species, has always been almost twice the price, as they have been in Florida.

It used to be, before the internet existed, that some people were asking vey high prices because it all mattered on WHO you knew, and when they saw that they were dealing with a person who didn't know where else to get a certain species, they would jack it up extra, because they knew they would get it. There are still people over your way that don't have specific prices listed and they wait to see who the customer is, and then they will tell you the price. Since the internet, finding rare plants in general is a lot easier for the new person, and if you have enough money, you can have a huge, new collection in no time. It used to be that you could only buy a certain amount of cycads with just money, but if you wanted something really special, you would have to be able to trade something good for the something good that someone else had.

There again, with the cycad market, there are actually several sub markets and each sub-market has a totally different situation. There are really high priced encephalartos species, mainly in California, that go for very high prices, and then, even in the same genus, there are very nice looking plants that can be used in the general landscape market, that go for a more resonable price, in comparison. There is also the cycad seed market.

I personally, never invested in the super rare encephalartos species, mainly because there was no way in hell that I would pay $1000+ for a small plant that I could easily kill. I have been put down by some prospective customers in the past, because I couldn't provide them with these super rare plants and I have always just refered them to someone who did. For my own pleasure, when I found a good deal on one of these rare plants, I would finally buy one or two of them, but haven't really thought about how much I could make on them, but just be happy I get to look at them every day, because, even if I do have a cycad nursery, many of the plants are MY plants and they might only ever be for sale, once I'm gone and my wife sells them all for a dollar each. At least for me, when I get to buy myself a "fun" cycad, I still get to write it off, because I can still use it for propagation some day, right?

Many cycad species are much cheaper because people like myself have made a point to propagate the species, thus making them more common, thus making the plants cheaper to buy compared to the prices of the same species when they first came out for sale. The species that have kept their high price are the ones that people are not propagating yet, or ARE being propagated, but don't tell any of the public about and hoard all the material for themselves, and their very close friends. This IS happening a lot more than people realize in the SoCal area because there are plenty of old timey collectors out there with houses covered in rare cycads, but are totally off the grid. Some of the younger guys out there who like to beat the bushes, are out there pollinating these people's plants and making new seeds and seedlings, and in another 5 years, people in your area will start seeing more of these plants being made available. There are even hirsutus seeds out there, and euryphyllidia plants being made available if you know the right people!

You mention the smaller people who are dumping their cycads. Many new people look at the prices and try to get in on the "big money" they can make on cycads. Anyone who has a good business sense quickly sees that there is not a lot of big money in growing cycads. Everything takes so much time, and if you look at what you can make on anything that grows faster, you can see that just growing cycads for a living is not a good idea. You really need to just LOVE these plants to be dumb enough to do this for a living, and just be happy with what you do make. There is still good, fast, money to be made with rare cycads, but the people who are doing this, are the go getters out there who are mainly brokering the plants, and know a lot of people who will buy these plants, and they are out there hitting it hard to make these deals. You won't be seeing these prices on the internet anywhere. Those plants are bought and sold way too fast to be put on a long term price list.

Sorry for the long post, but there are only a few people out in the world that really keep up with what is going on with cycads. Before the internet, I regularly had a $300 a month long distance bill because I was calling people all over the world, and pretty much, if anybody was bringing something in, I knew about it, one way or the other, even when they were bringing in the plants illegally, you would finally find out about them from someone who had a big mouth and couldn't help bragging about what they had done. I don't keep up with that kind of thing any more. I have about 30,000 cycads and there is only one species that I still really want, and that plant isn't even a good grower, so if I never get that one, I don't really care all that much. I still hear a lot oabout what is happening out there though. I constantly get phone calls and e-mails from people who have bought plants from someone else and when it is dying, they ask me for help to try and save their plants. Or they ask me if a certain price is a good deal, or they tell me about how they have been ripped off by a certain dealer, and all kinds of things like that. One of the bad things going on right now that I hear about from your area are the people who are selling cycads that they know were stolen from a certain nursery and are even bragging about it to their friends, and don't realize that their freinds can't keep their mouths shut when they are talking to other people that they think they can trust. Whether anything legal ever gets done about their situation remains to be seen, but this kind of situation is appalling and should not be tolerated by anyone who truly knows and cares about what is right and what is wrong. For this reason, I am glad I don't live in California.

 

Tom

Did you say you were saling these C. aeuryphyllidia plants ?

Best regards

Ed

[KennyRE317]

Hi Bill,

I think I have to agree with Burt's post in that, as respectfully as possible, I think you haven't yet met the right people. The cycad growers that I know are savvy business people who have priced their products according to market demands. They are making good money and their sales are very brisk, especially with the blues. For example one grower sold out of blues last summer. I waited for his seedlings to be ready in the spring. However ALL of his blues were bought out even before they even flushed their first leaf! I couldn't buy anything. Often when growers get blue seedlings or rare greens or dioons etc. in you have to jump on it right away or they're gone. A lot of these growers keep a lower profile because truthfully the cycad world does attract thieves and scumbags. Some growers simply refuse to sell to anyone that they don't know personally. It's almost like you have to be a "made man" to be able to buy from them. In my opinion all of this indicates that instead of being on the brink of a pricing catastrophe the cycad market is alive and thriving.

Also yes there are some nurseries that do have their cycads priced high, but they DO make sales. Some nurseries price low and do a lot of volume but others choose to price high and do less volume, but they make more money per cycad when they complete their sales. A lot of them have a stable list of clients that trust them and prefer to do business only with them. Why? Because many of the rare cycads are very difficult to tell apart and unscrupulous sellers can take advantage of this claim to sell a rare species that is in reality a more common one. It would be hard to tell them apart until they cone in 20 years. So people will pay a little more to buy from a nursery that they trust and that can provide provenance and reliable documentation.

Lastly, unlike palms, cycads, and especially blue encephalartos are very difficult to propagate. For encephalartos the natural pollinating insects are not present here so everything has to be hand pollinated. You have to have male and females of coning size and you have the knowledge and skill and possibly refrigeration capacity to be able to successfully pollinate them, and create viable seed. Experts are set up nicely for this, but unlike with palms, the layman is simply not equipped for this. Plus the blues are of course slower and and on top of this will only cone in certain environmental conditions.

There is a lot more to say but basically my opinion, as someone who has bought, sold and kept a lot of cycads, in Southern California the cycad market is very brisk and a lot of sales are being made. From what I have experienced I don't see any indicators of an impending market crash. I think the crash already occurred some time ago and the savvy businesspeople have now priced their products accordingly.

I

Thanks for your reply. You raise some great points. In reading it the first thing that came to question for me is what's "Good Money"? I have never seen a cycad dealer become rich but I have seen rich people become cycad dealers. SoCal has quite a few of those types just like one of the people you hinted about that likes to keep on the downlow. If you want to talk of price drops, I just picked up a $125 Dolo seedling. They were just going around. Just like $150 Latifronds seedlings. You couldn't even get seed for those prices a while back. And remember, cycads are slow and still somewhat 'new'. It won't take much more time for the many backyard growers to popup everywhere with seedlings and pups from their plants. It is already happening. It is my belief most larger guys hyperinflate the pricing in the market and many others try to convince buyers it is still a hot market. Just like real estate agents before the crash, even with flashing red lights going off. I guess your comments lead to a good point in that it all depends on your definition of good business and what one should be making for their time. To me, there is nothing "brisk" about the market. Sure you can make a great living, and many do. But it sure ain't easy! Yes, sales are made, but I see only an increase in inventory, and that isn't good if you are looking to cash in later. Like many have said here, buy the plants because you enjoy them. Don't buy them as part of some retirement strategy.

couldn't be a better statement in such few words! ..... i don't know anything about the palm & cycad market since i'm fairly new but i do know random collectibles as i have more hobbies than i'd like to admit and although a lot of my stuff has appreciated, some many times over, i have also lost some money on things as well. do i want to lose money on stuff? obviously no, but did i enjoy what i had during the time i had it? yup! and to me that's what it's all about. If all my toys got burned in a fire it would hurt emotionally, not financially

[Palmzilla]

You guys should dig up all your 15'' blue horridus and sell to me before they are worth nothing

[Walter John]

The basic principle in pricing for plants used to be the rarity aspect. Rare to find, perhaps illegal to obtain seed etc. from habitat and/or simply tough to propagate. Consider the anomaly of the Foxtail Wodyeti burfacata (I know not a cycad but), she was super expensive to acquire initially due to one of the above mentioned factors. Now, it's out in cultivation and possibly one of the easiest palms to grow from seed, ironically in many cases it's still holding fair value.

my 2 cents.

[turfpro01]

If anyone knows of a grower looking to sell out, hit me up. Just don't call me after all the blue cycads get bought. lol

I look at cycads as a long term investment, I try to grow a lot of common stuff that can be sold for landscape material along with palms. When we get a big jump in the economy, houses start going up, people start spending money, you will see them move. Could possibly even see a whole new group of collectors start buying, Ive created a few my self.

[John Case]

Len, if you really want an E. woodii, my Nigerian friend is having a special, discount sale this month !

Same guy that sold the Nigerian Walking Palm?