florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[JLM]

Next two weeks look above average for temps. Hopefully that continues into the back half of February. My queens will need as much warmth as they can get, and i plan to kickstart the recovery process tomorrow despite still being January. Normally i would just hold off until March but these palms have been torched the past 3 winters now.

[kinzyjr]

I received permission from the original poster to rename their thread for Central Florida to include observations for Florida and the Southeast USA.  Here is the official cold damage thread for January's long cold and snow storm:

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/87879-january-2025-cold-damage-florida-and-se-usa/

[Matthew92]

Meteorological community on X is abuzz with a potential polar vortex split mid Feb. If a polar vortex lobe like this swung this far south it could give potential for round 2 of cold weather in the Southeast US. Both Euro and GFS show the split now. Subject to change though as this is still somewhat far out.

 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

 

Sure, it bears watching but...

We're already ruined this season so of course now the bitter cold will stay up to the north like it should have in January.

Despite the vortex split,  I see no indication (yet) of freezing weather in the Deep South. 

Unlike the ominous medium-long range model forecasts that were shown in unison by the Euro, the GFS and the cfsv2 back in early January, the latest GFS 384 hr runs show nothing but mild temperatures ahead as does the predicted CFSV2 weekly anomalies for the next 4 weeks:

 

[Matthew92]

Looking at my forecast, getting close to 80 deg at the beginning of February in Northwest FL is quite something. I've lived here long enough though to recognize it's too early to get this warm and stay warm from now through spring. Regardless of what happens with the polar vortex, I believe we will have a freeze or freezes sometime in the 2nd half of Feb (at least Northern FL). It's too early and the pattern has to swing back. Now if we were in mid to late Feb getting such warm temperatures through the 10 day forecast: I would say we could be done with any threat of significant freezes, but there's too much of winter left at this point. Unfortunately, some plants and trees will probably start trying to grow again (or break dormancy) and if we get a significant freeze later in February it could be quite destructive. 

[JLM]

13 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Looking at my forecast, getting close to 80 deg at the beginning of February in Northwest FL is quite something. I've lived here long enough though to recognize it's too early to get this warm and stay warm from now through spring. Regardless of what happens with the polar vortex, I believe we will have a freeze or freezes sometime in the 2nd half of Feb (at least Northern FL). It's too early and the pattern has to swing back. Now if we were in mid to late Feb getting such warm temperatures through the 10 day forecast: I would say we could be done with any threat of significant freezes, but there's too much of winter left at this point. Unfortunately, some plants and trees will probably start trying to grow again (or break dormancy) and if we get a significant freeze later in February it could be quite destructive. 

Neighbors maple tree wasted no time getting started here. Already starting to flower.

[Hombre de Palmas]

18 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

 

Sure, it bears watching but...

We're already ruined this season so of course now the bitter cold will stay up to the north like it should have in January.

Despite the vortex split,  I see no indication (yet) of freezing weather in the Deep South. 

Unlike the ominous medium-long range model forecasts that were shown in unison by the Euro, the GFS and the cfsv2 back in early January, the latest GFS 384 hr runs show nothing but mild temperatures ahead as does the predicted CFSV2 weekly anomalies for the next 4 weeks:

 

I also do not see any serious cold outbreaks reflected in the CFS long-range model that takes us into March. I looked at the EPS and GEF this morning and they continue to concur on a warmer pattern into mid-February. On the other hand, once you get out past two weeks even a general forecast becomes little more than a dart throwing endeavor. I will follow the forecasts over the next couple weeks. If, in mid-February, the forecast continues in the present trajectory, I will suspend my frost concerns and find something else to fret about until we head closer toward hurricane season.😱

One observation I would like to report is that we should have a bumper crop of mangoes this season based on the massive amount of flowering I can see in the area. Last year it was pretty sparse.

[JLM]

I finally got a chance to sit down and put together all the temperature data from 1/20/25 to 1/23/25. All temperature data recorded in my front yard by my ambient weather station. It went below freezing by 8 PM on the 20th and did not rise above freezing again until around 12:30 PM on the 22nd. The low temp on the morning of the 22nd was a brutal 12F, and my yard experienced 6 hours below 20F. Dropped down briefly into the teens again early on the 23rd for about an hour total. Between the 20th to the 23rd, we spent about 73 out of 96 hours below freezing. Below is the charts i put together for each of those days. Pink represents 10s, purple 20s, dark blue 30s, and light blue 40s:

[JLM]

Light freeze/frost looking possible in N FL between the 20th and 25th, but too soon to know if it will happen and if it does, how cold it’ll get. I think we definitely get at least one more light freeze before it’s all said and done here, just wondering exactly when.

[kinzyjr]

20 hours ago, JLM said:

Light freeze/frost looking possible in N FL between the 20th and 25th, but too soon to know if it will happen and if it does, how cold it’ll get. I think we definitely get at least one more light freeze before it’s all said and done here, just wondering exactly when.

I could certainly handle an early end to winter.  Punxsutawney should retire the groundhog, too.

[SubTropicRay]

This isn't good and would worry me more if it were December or January.  That said, the potential for another chill is definitely there.  Look what the dip in January did to our weather.    

[Hombre de Palmas]

14 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

This isn't good and would worry me more if it were December or January.  That said, the potential for another chill is definitely there.  Look what the dip in January did to our weather.    

I've been noticing a general trend in the models for a cooler regime for the past 4-5 days. This doesn't look like a quick dip and recovery, more like a sustained period of chillier temps.

That said, as you mentioned, the fact that it is coming toward the end of February should insulate us from more drastic consequences than we are likely to experience.

The current parade of 80s for highs and 60s for lows has really awakened the landscape.

[kinzyjr]

It's looking a bit cooler toward the end of the forecast.  We might have to take an umbrella and a jacket to the CFPACS Booth at Plantae-palooza on the 22nd.

[Matthew92]

I had a hunch this might happen

[Hombre de Palmas]

The model blends not nearly so dire. After the run of above avg temps we have had it was only a matter of time.

Probably just a garden variety cool down.

53 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

I had a hunch this might happen

 

[Matthew92]

12 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

The model blends not nearly so dire. After the run of above avg temps we have had it was only a matter of time.

Probably just a garden variety cool down.

 

Maybe for Central/S. FL, but up here it's looking like it's very possible we could get a hard freeze.

[HudsonBill]

Why? This is so late. It was 33 34 in November here below freezing near me thats so early. Now this? Makes no sense. I swear everything they say that has an effect on temperature has 0 effect on it. It just does what it wants. 

[kinzyjr]

My temperature sensors recorded their first 90F day of 2025 yesterday.  The end of the week looks to be pretty chilly by comparison, but thankfully, no Valentine's Day Massacre freeze: 

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/48658-the-1899-valentines-day-florida-massacre/

[Hombre de Palmas]

12 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Maybe for Central/S. FL, but up here it's looking like it's very possible we could get a hard freeze.

The Euro is considerably colder than the GEFS currently and has seemed to run colder for the past month or two. In the event, they ended up being not as accurate as the warmer American (GEFS) models.  The Weather Underground is leaning more towards the GEFS for our extended. Hopefully, that is what we will all experience. One thing for sure though, we have a week+ of cooler weather on deck and I am watching the trends pretty carefully.

[flplantguy]

Im noticing the "still too early to tell" disparity between models showing different temps (35 and 40 here) and expect some change still, hopefully for the better.  I have a chest infection from the last cold snap, and the greenhouse needs repairs beforehand, so ive got my fingers and toes crossed!

[flplantguy]

There is an AP news article that discusses this winter and why its been this way. Judah Cohen says in the article that the polar vortex has split TEN TIMES this winter, starting with the november cold that @HudsonBill mentioned. Normal is two or three! Many of those got my yard to 32.something with only the snow event being worse at 26.6 (cloud cover for two cold days before may have been a lucky factor for us all), but i would think that many splits SHOULD be worse in Florida than it has been.

One reason most of Florida was spared is a split is not the same as a collapse, which allows all the cold down at once (usually in NA or Asia). These splits keep it and pull it back into the circular vortex between splits, so the air doesnt moderate but isnt as bad as a full collapse. Depending on other factors the collapse can miss us, and usually does since it normally happens late season, but some years we can still get hit.  There is some indication that lower ice levels in the arctic (especially by sibera in the Barents-Kara sea) are contributing to the constant splits instead of typical patterns. 

That all means this could be a norm in the future, and it could hopefully be moderated by warming gulf water temps (i hit that 26.6 because the water offshore was below 50 degrees and stole my shield lol).  Also this polar vortex has been record strong, so the splits we are seeing are more able to return to an intensely cold vortex aloft, and give a return punch without losing integrity of the whole vortex.  We could even see some chilly weather later on when the vortex finally collapses in march (our usual last cool event is march but not freezing usually).

I feel like we are in another cold pattern like the last ones, just moderated so intensity for Florida is moderated (sorry Texas). Add in urban heating and the southern parts of the state will become freeze free almost entirely over time, and south texas should see similar changes with a bit less impact due to the express route called the plains. 

Im hopeful all this theoretical change makes it here and that random 26.6 is even more rare, but im north of the major developed areas and spring hill isnt large enough to have a big impact on temps like the big cities do.  It will always get chilly here in winter, but if the polar vortex gets less able to move down it will be a near ideal palm growing environment, with cold and hot temps, but minimal freezes or temps above 96.  Orlando with the heat island has some amazing palms growing in some gardens as we know, but that heat island isnt here at the same latitude and we saw radically different temps that night so i need all the help i can get lol.

[Matthew92]

Got to 33deg this morning here with frost.

Still slated to get a significant freeze in the FL Panhandle Thur/Fri timeframe. 

Here in Okaloosa county, we have a fair amount of plants and trees trying to push out new growth which is unfortunate (thanks to 4 solid weeks of April-like temperatures). Some Saucer magnolias are blooming, citrus growing new leaves, an elm and mulberry tree I saw with new leaves coming out as well. Thankfully though, the majority of vegetation is "smart" and hasn't done so yet (many native).  

Here's the latest main computer models showing the potential degrees of this freeze.

GFS is warmest

Euro

Canadian (coldest)

ICON

[Matthew92]

Some of the saucer magnolias blooming in the area. Many of these will already be fading by the time of the freeze this Thursday/Friday, so they probably will do okay as the leaves won't have come out yet. All these are the standard light pink cultivar sold in garden centers (among the first to bloom). I've tried finding the exact name of this cultivar, and the closest matches I've found looking online are 'Alexandrina,' 'Forrester's Pink,' and 'Ann.' Many years they are a bland whitish-pink, but due to various conditions, some years they are darker and more attractive. This year they have better color (pictures with my iphone don't do it justice/looks more striking in person). Maybe has to do with getting more cold/chilling? (which we've certainly had this winter). Other cultivars have even more spectacular flower color (from white, to magenta, deep pink, purplish-red, and even yellow) and bloom later after the threat of frost, but are planted much less than this light pink one. The Gardens of the Big Bend in Quincy, FL (near Tallahassee) have an excellent collection of saucer magnolia. If you scroll through the photos section of their facebook page here you'll see photos of them over the years.

[kinzyjr]

9 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Here's the latest main computer models showing the potential degrees of this freeze.

GFS is warmest

The graphics explain the wide temperature range in the forecasts at the beginning of the week.  Everything seems to be coalescing around the 40F mark at current.  There is room to drop yet, but hopefully this will be our last one.

[Matthew92]

Was supposed to be about 31 deg here this morning, was only 35, but during yesterday/last evening it just didn't have that bite in the air when the arctic airmass arrives. Now today it really feels like it has arrived with gusty winds and the highest being 51 degrees. Already 40deg at 6:12pm. It has that look and feel that it is going to get pretty darn cold tonight.

Forecast low has been slightly raised from 27 to 28 (Crestview to my north is forecast for 25 vs 23 a couple days ago). With how some areas in TX overperformed in how cold it got, I am wary for that happening here. Will see.

[Matthew92]

I'll maybe start another thread for damage photos from this winter. Phoenix canariensis and related hybrids in my area (not in a beach microclimate) have taken the most damage I've seen in years with some around 100% brown with a few others still having a tinge of green near the bud and leaf bases. Some Phoenix sylvestris are 100% brown and I'm thinking some might bite the dust. There's even a few Livistona chinensis I've seen that are about 100% brown. A few Butia have brownish tinges on some of the leaves: not completely sure if that was already there or is something else but I'll keep an eye out as time goes. I know in the '13-'14 winter (17 deg and a couple other nights in the low 20's+long durations in the 20's) my big Butia odorata in the front yard looked fine but when it started growing out leaves in the spring a couple came out with black blemishes on them which I think was latent damage.

[kinzyjr]

1 minute ago, Matthew92 said:

I'll maybe start another thread for damage photos from this winter. Phoenix canariensis and related hybrids in my area (not in a beach microclimate) have taken the most damage I've seen in years with some around 100% brown with a few others still having a tinge of green near the bud and leaf bases. Some Phoenix sylvestris are 100% brown and I'm thinking some might bite the dust. There's even a few Livistona chinensis I've seen that are about 100% brown. A few Butia have brownish tinges on some of the leaves: not completely sure if that was already there or is something else but I'll keep an eye out as time goes. I know in the '13-'14 winter (17 deg and a couple other nights in the low 20's+long durations in the 20's) my big Butia odorata in the front yard looked fine but when it started growing out leaves in the spring a couple came out with black blemishes on them which I think was latent damage.

You can tack them on here: https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/88227-january-2025-cold-damage-florida-and-se-usa

[flplantguy]

Our forecast was good here with a low of 35.2, still slightly below the forecast but no frost or issues.  More fronts on the way but nothing bad so hopefully a benign spring with good growing weather.

[Matthew92]

Got to 27 here at 6:43am. 7:46am now and it is only 30deg. No frost. While not a super hard freeze, this is quite a long duration one below freezing. Thankful I moved the potted tender stuff inside and put towels over some tender perennials that were starting to emerge.

[JLM]

26F here this morning. Structure maintained over 10F above ambient after the major repairs following yesterday’s strong winds. The top piece of plastic (one of the most important ones) got ripped in half - not repairable. Threw a tarp over it and during this process one of the middle PVC pipes snapped. Whatever. Hopefully this will be the last freeze and I can take this junk down for good once it’s over.

[flplantguy]

7 hours ago, JLM said:

26F here this morning. Structure maintained over 10F above ambient after the major repairs following yesterday’s strong winds. The top piece of plastic (one of the most important ones) got ripped in half - not repairable. Threw a tarp over it and during this process one of the middle PVC pipes snapped. Whatever. Hopefully this will be the last freeze and I can take this junk down for good once it’s over.

My greenhouse is the same way, im over it too lol.  Patching and taping and replacing every time it gets windy, and half the shade cloth is ripped.  We are in the home stretch though! I hope lol.  How many times can the polar vortex stretch in one season anyway?

[kinzyjr]

13 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

We are in the home stretch though! I hope lol.  How many times can the polar vortex stretch in one season anyway?

Don't tempt fate LOL.  That's @SubTropicRay's job

Here in the yard, a small spread of temperatures from 40F-41F.  The first night is usually warmer than forecast here, and then the second or third night is usually cooler.  The airport recorded 41F for its lowest hourly observation.  I'll wait until we can get tomorrow morning's temperature before grabbing the full slate of NWS airport records and attaching them.

 

[JLM]

Think i forgot to mention this. Took the structure down for Saturday because wind was expected to be quite strong and the threat for severe storms. During the storms, the one stem with a rack of bananas on it fell. Snapped half a foot off the ground. The support had been moved out from under it at some point, and so down it went. The rack is in the kitchen with the hopes we can get anything from it, but it appears they are way too underripe. At this point just protecting the remaining larger and taller ones with the hopes they flower early on in the growing season.

[kinzyjr]

The records for the cool off for the 21^st and 22^nd are attached.

20250223_obhistory.zip

[JLM]

Full steam ahead into spring? I sure as hell hope so. I’m sure we will get another frost here along the I-10 corridor before it’s all said and done, but this brings me hope that there are no more freezes in the cards. Would like to note that there is also a chance for above average precipitation across the entire state during the entire 6-14 day time period. Guess now it’s just time to enjoy this level of warmth while it lasts, because it’ll be in the 90s again soon enough.

[Hombre de Palmas]

It looks like most, or all, of Florida is in good shape going forward based on medium-long term models. There is always some variation but there is no indication of a concerted push of cold air in the eastern U.S.

There certainly will be an episode or two of short term cool spells and models are subject to change, but as we get deeper into March, the days are longer, the sun is higher, and the earth is warming up which will temper those brief intrusions.☀️

BTW, registered 2.15" of rain last night which brought down my Thunbergia grandiflora trellis which was in glorious full bloom but the rest of the landscape loved it. I will have my work cut out for me this afternoon but I think I can salvage it. All the rain always comes at one go this time of the year.

[SubTropicRay]

On 2/21/2025 at 6:15 PM, kinzyjr said:

Don't tempt fate LOL.  That's @SubTropicRay's job

 

 

yes just when you felt good comes a dose of reality.  Hey at least it rained 😝

[JLM]

Have had a few dips to around 40F and even a couple mornings briefly at 39F these past couple of weeks. NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for tonight though, expecting 36F. Hopefully this is the last threatening cold snap. Trees leafing out in full force around here now.

[kinzyjr]

Hopefully this is our last trip into the 40s for the remainder of the year.  That said, good weather for cleaning up the yard.

[Hombre de Palmas]

Has a surprise 42°F Yesterday morning. Only 2° higher than our lowest temp for the year! We have had a series of cool mornings, that said, the temperature rockets up as soon as the sun rises.

I believe that was the last low in the 40s and now the warm-up into the rainy season.