Milton

[Jimbean]

Here we go again Florida!  

[SeanK]

Looks like Wednesday around noon or so.

 

 

[flplantguy]

A very tiring month shaping up. The last two weeks have been already. I hope they are wrong and it shears apart.

[SeanK]

Florida folks need to start watching this. Models are already tight, St Pete Beach to Homosassa, surge above 12 ft on the south side of the eye.

[Barry]

Already started full hurricane prep yesterday. Moving the rest of plants today. It is a lot to do, but has to be done. I’m feeling a landfall somewhere around Sarasota at this point. Which puts us on the dirty side! I don’t have to worry about surge, but flooding from rain is possible. Already major rains coming ahead of storm. Every one prepare and be safe! It is not going to be good for west coast of Florida. It is incredible the surge damage from Helene in my area, some areas close to what happened in Ian. Helene was 300 miles away from us.

[Jimbean]

I'm actually thinking this time it will be Tampa/Bradenton area, and then wobble over the state a bit.  I also think it's going to get close to category 4 strength.  I'm pretty good at calling these things.  See my previous posts with Ian for example.  We'll see.  

[Merlyn]

@Jimbean yep, the current spaghetti maps are all looking like Tampa-Sarasota area at Cat3.  It's going to be a pretty big storm, so probably will affect everyone from Miami to Jax.  It's also looking like a fast mover (like Helene) once it starts heading to the East.  The final path and strength probably depends on how close it gets to the Yucatan peninsula and the hot water region between Cancun and Cuba.

This site usually has up to date maps and models with not a lot of spam:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#14L

[Barry]

We will see if Tampa’s “Iron Dome” for hurricanes works this time? Every storm slated to go there has turned and not hit Tampa full on.

Not wishing it on anyone, but someone is going to get hit bad. 

[Jimbean]

Let's see if I'm right again

I think it tracks a bit south of where the models converge, but then turns a bit more north Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.  

Between points #1 and #2, will be rapid intensification to nearly, or into category 4 strength.  By point #3, encounters some wind sheer and weakens right before hitting land, and wobbles a bit as it interacts more closely with the stalled frontal boundary.  Also drawing in dry air from the west.  

The orange circles will be hit surprisingly hard.  Of course, the winds from the eye wall and storm surge will greatly impact Tampa area and there will be plenty of wind damage in Polk, Orange, Brevard, etc counties.  

Behind the storm, after the power is knocked out, the weather will be nice and cooler than normal for a day or two.  

Power will be out for several weeks in many places across central Florida and to a lesser extend, southwest and northeat Florida.

[SeanK]

Looks like the +/- 2 sigma likelihood is Homosassa to Ft Myers, +/- 1 sigma is Clearwater to Venice. Still 3 days out so there's time to prep.

[SeanK]

3 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Let's see if I'm right again

I think it tracks a bit south of where the models converge, but then turns a bit more north Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.  

Between points #1 and #2, will be rapid intensification to nearly, or into category 4 strength.  By point #3, encounters some wind sheer and weakens right before hitting land, and wobbles a bit as it interacts more closely with the stalled frontal boundary.  Also drawing in dry air from the west.  

The orange circles will be hit surprisingly hard.  Of course, the winds from the eye wall and storm surge will greatly impact Tampa area and there will be plenty of wind damage in Polk, Orange, Brevard, etc counties.  

Behind the storm, after the power is knocked out, the weather will be nice and cooler than normal for a day or two.  

Power will be out for several weeks in many places across central Florida and to a lesser extend, southwest and northeat Florida.

This would help Tampa Bay a little.

[Jimbean]

26 minutes ago, SeanK said:

This would help Tampa Bay a little.

As you said, it's several days out so things can change, and I can very well be wrong too.  Floridians need to watch this regardless.  

[PalmatierMeg]

Shades of Irma! Well, Irma came up from the south and Milton apparently from the SW. Until Ian Irma was the worst we saw. Tons of landscape damage. I expect no less from our latest storm. We’ve begun the process of closing shutters. While some people watch the NFL we made a last minute supply run. So many people are just not too bright. Mon. & Tues they will panic because stores and service stations are stripped bare. Did anyone learn a thing from Helene? Guess we’ll find out.

[SeanK]

6 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

As you said, it's several days out so things can change, and I can very well be wrong too.  Floridians need to watch this regardless.  

I just saw DeSantis on the news. Centerline is Madeira Beach. 

[SeanK]

3 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Shades of Irma! Well, Irma came up from the south and Milton apparently from the SW. Until Ian Irma was the worst we saw. Tons of landscape damage. I expect no less from our latest storm. We’ve begun the process of closing shutters. While some people watch the NFL we made a last minute supply run. So many people are just not too bright. Mon. & Tues they will panic because stores and service stations are stripped bare. Did anyone learn a thing from Helene? Guess we’ll find out.

This should help clear out most of the recent transplants. 

[Barry]

Very concerned about assets for power companies that are dealing with Helene, so recovery could be slower. And this could also have widespread ramifications thru Florida. It will be a hurricane when it exits the east coast.

[Jimbean]

9 minutes ago, Barry said:

Very concerned about assets for power companies that are dealing with Helene, so recovery could be slower. And this could also have widespread ramifications thru Florida. It will be a hurricane when it exits the east coast.

That's what I was thinking too.  There's already a shortage of repair equipment as it is due to Helene and other reasons. 

[Looking Glass]

The track is inching a bit more south today.  If the eye falls more south of Tampa, that is good for them, if it falls north, bad news for surge flooding.  This one is going to blast the majority of Florida in a Tuesday night through Wednesday event.  

I don’t like the look of this one.  That’s a lot of warm open water on both sides.  People are doing panic-prep already.   Have full gas tanks, cash on hand, stored water (tap is fine, but if you’re a snowbird, buy all the cases of Fiji), and an exit plan if you are in a flood zone.  
 

 

 

[D. Morrowii]

Very informative breakdown by Levi from Tropical Tidbits. In the video he describes why the storm probably won’t continue to intensify all the way to landfall. Hopefully that’s the case. It still sounds like it will be a very dangerous storm but the weaker the better🤞

[miamicuse]

I don't remember seeing one approach from the west like that.  A few from the SW coming up like Irma, Wilma caused major damages.  It's already flooding outside and that's not even related to Milton.

[Merlyn]

11 minutes ago, miamicuse said:

I don't remember seeing one approach from the west like that.  A few from the SW coming up like Irma, Wilma caused major damages.  It's already flooding outside and that's not even related to Milton.

I saw a clip that said only two other storms had formed in the bay of Campeche and hit Florida...since the mid 1800s.  So yeah, extremely unusual!  The intensity projection has it going towards Cat4 at the moment.

[flplantguy]

My covers are up, plants will come in later on if the track has the eyewall or very high winds over my location. I'll decide that tomorrow i think, it won't take a long time to move them.  Hoping the shear begins sooner and weakens it before it hits, but its not looking good.

[flplantguy]

By the way yale climate connections has a blog that has live commentary from very smart (and very dumb) people about the storm. Some hype and then people that state facts, but always use the NHC forecast.

[Barry]

I decided to protect my Sabinaria magnifica, got this as a one strap leave seedling 4 years ago. It has canopy above it, it has been thinned by Irma and Ian. But it is doing so well, took some extra care for it. 
 

Thank goodness I have accordion hurricane shutters, takes only 30 minutes or some to lock everything down! One of the best decisions getting the shutters
 

 

[Merlyn]

And this morning there's divergent forecasts.  Most of the spaghetti models were going sort of mid-state aiming at Tampa, but spread out randomly on the coast down to Cape Coral. 

Last night most of the models tightened up around Tampa, but the UKMET ones diverged to South of Fort Myers.  UKMET's intensity also predicts it'll get sheared off by skimming the Yucatan peninsula and waver between CAT2 and CAT3.  We'll see....

[UK_Palms]

Milton is a confirmed category 4 hurricane already and is much stronger than anticipated at this period of time. It is only 7mph off from reaching cat 5 it seems, which is inevitable now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it slams into western Florida as a cat 4 and crosses over land at cat 3 at least.

 

If you are in Tampa, I would be looking to evacuate. Forget trying to ride this thing out. But then again I don’t live there so easy for me to say. It’s not looking good though!

 

[Jimbean]

So far my track is on point but my intensity forecast already missed the mark.  It underwent rapid intensification sooner than I expected.  

 

25 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

 I wouldn’t be surprised if it slams into western Florida as a cat 4 and crosses over land at cat 3 at least.

I think it will lose quite a bit of strength as it crosses Florida, mainly due to the wind shear.  

[Merlyn]

3 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I think it will lose quite a bit of strength as it crosses Florida, mainly due to the wind shear.  

Yes, the only time hurricanes retain wind speed over land is if they are moving *really fast.*  This happened with Helene, going northeast at about 25mph.  Instead of dumping all the rain and windspeed at landfall it was moving fast enough to dump the rain into the Carolinas.  South Carolina had wind gusts in the 50-75mph range. 

Current intensity forecasts have it crossing the state as a Cat1, with official landfall around Cat2.  This is reasonable given the cold water between Cuba and Tampa and the shear it'll see near landfall.  But they could be wrong.  😮 

I've already "hurricane cut" my big Alfredii yesterday, and am going to lop off any queen fronds that might hit my roof.  Otherwise my yard area is pretty much cleaned up.

[Jimbean]

9 minutes ago, Merlyn said:

Yes, the only time hurricanes retain wind speed over land is if they are moving *really fast.*  This happened with Helene, going northeast at about 25mph.  Instead of dumping all the rain and windspeed at landfall it was moving fast enough to dump the rain into the Carolinas.  South Carolina had wind gusts in the 50-75mph range. 

Current intensity forecasts have it crossing the state as a Cat1, with official landfall around Cat2.  This is reasonable given the cold water between Cuba and Tampa and the shear it'll see near landfall.  But they could be wrong.  😮 

I've already "hurricane cut" my big Alfredii yesterday, and am going to lop off any queen fronds that might hit my roof.  Otherwise my yard area is pretty much cleaned up.

I'm still thinking category 3 landfall, ~125mph winds.  My forecast has been Bradenton, but ten miles to the north and Tampa will get flooded. 

[flplantguy]

Up to cat 5 now with a cleared stadium eye.  Its overperforming the models and thats scary.  Many still coming in north of tampa in a worst case scenario, making stress even higher.  And another still showing in the models for south florida around the 17th.  This year can go away already.

[Aceraceae]

4 hours ago, Merlyn said:

.  This is reasonable given the cold water between Cuba and Tampa and the shear it'll see near landfall.  But they could be wrong.  😮 

 

Cold water between Cuba and Tampa? 🧐 

You mean the 1 degree dip in the trail of Helene? 

Milton is now a small but instense upper cat 5 storm at 175 peak winds. Almost strong enough to be a 'cat 6' cat 5, the next reasonable designation that would begin at 180 or 185 mph nominal peak 1-min winds. A couple dozen hurricanes and typhoons would be in this category, such as Dorian, Allen, the giant pacific storms like record low pressure Typhoon Tip, and of course record wind >200 mph Hurricane Patricia in 2015.

[DoomsDave]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

Up to cat 5 now with a cleared stadium eye.  Its overperforming the models and thats scary.  Many still coming in north of tampa in a worst case scenario, making stress even higher.  And another still showing in the models for south florida around the 17th.  This year can go away already.

 

4 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I'm still thinking category 3 landfall, ~125mph winds.  My forecast has been Bradenton, but ten miles to the north and Tampa will get flooded. 

 

4 hours ago, Merlyn said:

Yes, the only time hurricanes retain wind speed over land is if they are moving *really fast.*  This happened with Helene, going northeast at about 25mph.  Instead of dumping all the rain and windspeed at landfall it was moving fast enough to dump the rain into the Carolinas.  South Carolina had wind gusts in the 50-75mph range. 

Current intensity forecasts have it crossing the state as a Cat1, with official landfall around Cat2.  This is reasonable given the cold water between Cuba and Tampa and the shear it'll see near landfall.  But they could be wrong.  😮 

I've already "hurricane cut" my big Alfredii yesterday, and am going to lop off any queen fronds that might hit my roof.  Otherwise my yard area is pretty much cleaned up.

 

4 hours ago, Jimbean said:

So far my track is on point but my intensity forecast already missed the mark.  It underwent rapid intensification sooner than I expected.  

 

I think it will lose quite a bit of strength as it crosses Florida, mainly due to the wind shear.  

 

5 hours ago, Merlyn said:

And this morning there's divergent forecasts.  Most of the spaghetti models were going sort of mid-state aiming at Tampa, but spread out randomly on the coast down to Cape Coral. 

Last night most of the models tightened up around Tampa, but the UKMET ones diverged to South of Fort Myers.  UKMET's intensity also predicts it'll get sheared off by skimming the Yucatan peninsula and waver between CAT2 and CAT3.  We'll see....

 

17 hours ago, Barry said:

I decided to protect my Sabinaria magnifica, got this as a one strap leave seedling 4 years ago. It has canopy above it, it has been thinned by Irma and Ian. But it is doing so well, took some extra care for it. 
 

Thank goodness I have accordion hurricane shutters, takes only 30 minutes or some to lock everything down! One of the best decisions getting the shutters
 

 

 

20 hours ago, flplantguy said:

By the way yale climate connections has a blog that has live commentary from very smart (and very dumb) people about the storm. Some hype and then people that state facts, but always use the NHC forecast.

 

23 hours ago, miamicuse said:

I don't remember seeing one approach from the west like that.  A few from the SW coming up like Irma, Wilma caused major damages.  It's already flooding outside and that's not even related to Milton.

 

On 10/6/2024 at 10:59 AM, D. Morrowii said:

Very informative breakdown by Levi from Tropical Tidbits. In the video he describes why the storm probably won’t continue to intensify all the way to landfall. Hopefully that’s the case. It still sounds like it will be a very dangerous storm but the weaker the better🤞

 

On 10/6/2024 at 10:08 AM, Looking Glass said:

The track is inching a bit more south today.  If the eye falls more south of Tampa, that is good for them, if it falls north, bad news for surge flooding.  This one is going to blast the majority of Florida in a Tuesday night through Wednesday event.  

I don’t like the look of this one.  That’s a lot of warm open water on both sides.  People are doing panic-prep already.   Have full gas tanks, cash on hand, stored water (tap is fine, but if you’re a snowbird, buy all the cases of Fiji), and an exit plan if you are in a flood zone.  
 

 

 

 

On 10/6/2024 at 8:49 AM, PalmatierMeg said:

Shades of Irma! Well, Irma came up from the south and Milton apparently from the SW. Until Ian Irma was the worst we saw. Tons of landscape damage. I expect no less from our latest storm. We’ve begun the process of closing shutters. While some people watch the NFL we made a last minute supply run. So many people are just not too bright. Mon. & Tues they will panic because stores and service stations are stripped bare. Did anyone learn a thing from Helene? Guess we’ll find out.

Praying for all of you over there.

Let us know if you're okay.

Hope you are. 🙏

[Merlyn]

1 hour ago, Aceraceae said:

Cold water between Cuba and Tampa? 🧐 

You mean the 1 degree dip in the trail of Helene?

Yeah the scale on the last map I looked at was unusually expanded, and I didn't notice.  The big red splotch in the gulf of Campeche is where it formed, about 3F warmer than the area it's passing through on the way to Tampa.  That's a main reason it went from Cat 1 to 5 so quick.

[JLM]

This definitely seems like it could be on its way to having a sub-900 mb pressure, if it doesn’t already have a pressure in the upper 890s. Intensification since last night has been nothing short of explosive.
 

Also, a quick reminder that at 10 AM CDT yesterday, this was a 65 mph tropical storm.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Merlyn said:

Yeah the scale on the last map I looked at was unusually expanded, and I didn't notice.  The big red splotch in the gulf of Campeche is where it formed, about 3F warmer than the area it's passing through on the way to Tampa.  That's a main reason it went from Cat 1 to 5 so quick.

SOTO ( State Of The Ocean ) = Far better site for checking current SSTs and current SST anomalies:



Current SSTs:




Current SST anomalies:

[flplantguy]

I hope it dies as spectacularly as it formed.  Sub 900 monster with a pinhole eye and once again the crazy model runs end up close to accurate.  That's the scary part because it means they will probably have landfall pegged too.  Lots of things wont be what there were before and the trees will pay dearly for it.  Im hoping my forest holds up but the plants were moved partly today and they come in tomorrow, some if not all.

[SeanK]

21 hours ago, Jimbean said:

So far my track is on point but my intensity forecast already missed the mark.  It underwent rapid intensification sooner than I expected.  

 

I think it will lose quite a bit of strength as it crosses Florida, mainly due to the wind shear.  

Cat1 to Cat5 in 24 hours!

[SeanK]

On 10/6/2024 at 1:08 PM, Looking Glass said:

The track is inching a bit more south today.  If the eye falls more south of Tampa, that is good for them, if it falls north, bad news for surge flooding.  This one is going to blast the majority of Florida in a Tuesday night through Wednesday event.  

I don’t like the look of this one.  That’s a lot of warm open water on both sides.  People are doing panic-prep already.   Have full gas tanks, cash on hand, stored water (tap is fine, but if you’re a snowbird, buy all the cases of Fiji), and an exit plan if you are in a flood zone.  
 

 

 

I hate to wish good luck on some at the expense of others. Still, center and south will bear the brunt of 10-ft surge.

[Merlyn]

So nothing has really changed overnight, the models are all tightening up around the Tampa-Sarasota area.  Apparently the UKMET people are just as wildly inaccurate as ever.  They were the ones predicting it to hit South of Ft. Myers yesterday.  The one bit of good news is that there's a LOT of wind shear that will *hopefully* tear this hurricane down in strength as it tracks Northeast:

It's pushing against a fairly large dry cold front from the NW, which is what was originally going to come across FL late this week.  Ironically the further North it goes, the more it'll lose strength from heavy shear and colder water.  I think this is why the intensity models are saying it's hit the maximum intensity last night and will be dropping today:

If you look at the 48 hour mark in the below path models, it's more or less on Tampa to Lakeland.  But the modeled intensity at 48 hours is a medium to strong Cat1.  Landfall looks on the map to be well after the 36HR dots, which is modeled as a medium to lower end Cat3.  Hopefully it'll land in the Cat2-3 range...

One thing I'm sure of is that I'll lose power for 5-10 days.  The overhead line going back to our street is surrounded by water oaks.  FPL always leaves us until the last 10% of houses to get power back.  I'll be pulling out the generator today...

[Cindy Adair]

Thinking of all of you in harm’s way…