Climate Voyger: ..Plant zones of the future????

[Silas_Sancona]

...Anyone play around w/ this??  Thoughts??

Regardless of how accurate the " possibilities " might  -or might not-  be, kind of interesting seeing how much the zones could  shift  over such a relatively short amount of time,  esp. on this side of the U.S.  Maps have a similar look / feel to the data used by PRISM, Imo. 


AZ:  ..Note that in past casual discussions regarding how warm things  might  get around here,  i'd mentioned how ..i myself..  could see Phoenix reaching into 11A, while Tucson reaches zone 10 ..and the far southern end of the state could jump from zone 8 ( A and B ) to solid 9  ..with pockets of 10 south of Tucson in numerous places i've explored close to the border sometime before the end of the century.

Interesting to see my " what if " scenario laid out on a map.






I've also thought the possibility of S. Cal exceeding Zone 11 isn't something that might be all that far fetched, as is.  Seeing this particular mapping tool suggesting the possibility of some areas reaching 12A is pretty interesting,  regardless if that actually occurs in the coming decades.  Note that on the '23 plant zone map from PRISM, there are already a few specks of 11A on the map in S. Cal.

Imo,  other factors like how much the marine layer changes / how much things warm and dry out -overall- during the winter, ..if they do..  aside,   it would seem wide a band of 12A  ..or even 11B.. stretched out from San Diego to L.A. ..  would increase the potential for Coconuts surviving in S.Cal  ..esp. along the coast.





Only not- so- great thing i can find with this particular mapping tool so far  is that the resolution doesn't seem to capture what zone smaller areas like the FL. Keys. might be in  in the future all that well.  Miami area however is listed as bumping up to Zone12 around the same time period ...if not sooner,  -if such a scenario plays out as suggested.

I'm also curious if the pace of the suggested changes might actually occur faster than within the suggested time frame..  Anyway,

**** As with any of these maps, this is something that is more fun to look over,   than something to take literally, with Salt,  ...at least not yet, lol..  ****

[flplantguy]

I just looked at it and it is quite a bit like the others. My specific area is an odd dead zone on the edge of 10a in every map but the highest showing 10b by 2100. The other changes are all subtle here (water?) but keep me on the edge of the freeze zone every year, just i guess light ones or very few colder ones. Projected extremes are 24.4 or so in 1996 to the average of 29 or so on prism so it could bear a little weight. Nothing lower than 27 since then outside of possible 2010 imapacts that tell me it was 24ish here then too, so its close here at least.  Still keeping my cold protection collection no matter what!

[Foxpalms]

Wish this was made for European cities too. But by looking at US cities it looks like we would be on track for zone 10a here by 2050. Currently just barely below the threshold from my weather station temps from 2019. With the already barley 10a parts of central London having an average annual low just over 32f/0c. 

The all time record low for London St James park is -9c/15.8f and St James park is usually around 1.5c colder than the city of London and the most protected parts of the city of Westminster. January here has gotten warmer, though the winter month I have seen the biggest difference is February.  The average high is now around 11c with an average low of 6.5c in the last 7 years.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

14 hours ago, flplantguy said:

I just looked at it and it is quite a bit like the others. My specific area is an odd dead zone on the edge of 10a in every map but the highest showing 10b by 2100. The other changes are all subtle here (water?) but keep me on the edge of the freeze zone every year, just i guess light ones or very few colder ones. Projected extremes are 24.4 or so in 1996 to the average of 29 or so on prism so it could bear a little weight. Nothing lower than 27 since then outside of possible 2010 imapacts that tell me it was 24ish here then too, so its close here at least.  Still keeping my cold protection collection no matter what!

Not sure if you saw this but aside from looking at what the plant zones may look like in coming decades, there is another series of maps that look at how minimum temps may change ( decrease in days w/ temps lower than say 32, 28, 25, 20 or 15F )

A little 🤔 regarding interpreting some of the data aside,  suggested changes, ..if they followed even the " medium " end of the scenarios is quite stark, esp. in the west.  Might be why they introduce the band of 11B and 12A to S. Cal. in the higher end scenarios, esp by the end of the century  ( Because any " serious " cold outbreaks in the future have much less bite  ..if they effect that part / any part of CA at all )

Where you're at, maybe an 2010 style arctic outbreak in 2077 or 97 brings one morning w/an ultimate low of ...33F..  Nothing lower than that.
🤷‍♂️

Suggested decrease in sub 32F days..

by 2059



by 2099




 ...sub 25F days..

2059



2099




 

[flplantguy]

@Silas_Sancona i did not see the sub 25 degree days on there, thats interesting. I think the sub 32 days here (just inland since i cant select my spot exact) went from 3 to 4 down to 1 or 2 (decimal numbers between those) during that time, so that tells me one night from 30 to 32 each year, like january 2023 was here or last january just above freezing. Im radiationally vulnerable so i wonder how or if they handle those differences. I also think no days below 50 in cali is a bit out there but if seas warm in the region i can see it eventually.  Ill go back on there today and play with it on my computer the phone is harder to use for their site.  Im also curious about hawaii and heat with some of the amazing gardens there, and i wonder what it will even mean in a olace like phoenix where the summer heat overshadows any winter cold.

[Silas_Sancona]

On 9/21/2024 at 4:21 AM, flplantguy said:

Im also curious about hawaii and heat with some of the amazing gardens there, and i wonder what it will even mean in a olace like phoenix where the summer heat overshadows any winter cold.

Agree w/ that.. However it plays out, extreme heat will definitely overshadow any cold related issues ..Here esp,  but in other areas as well..

This past summer was the hottest JJA ( June, July, August ) average ever.. coming in at 98.9F,  which beat the record set ..last summer which was 97.1F.  Interesting too that all but one of our record breaker summers have occurred since 2000.  ..And yes, while our UHI plays apart in that,  it isn't just Phoenix that reached #1.  Tucson, Flagstaff ..and several other places up in the mountains. Palm Springs  Las Vegas, and numerous other places in Cali also topped their previous hottest summers as well this year.

Looking at Voyager's thoughts, their thinking is our summer average will fall somewhere between 95.1, and 97.9F ( Low and multi model " medium "  end of their suggestions ) somewhere in the 2060 - 80 time frame.. 

While one or two years exceeding the current multi -decade average doesn't set a new long term average, If we're already starting to poke above both suggestions, several decades ahead of the 2060-ish time frame, that can't be a good signal. 

Eye opener is the high outcome scenario, where our summer average could be over 100F by that time, and something like 104F by 2080 -2099. oof..

Hotter summers in big heat island cities like Phoenix / cities in the low deserts are one thing of course, cooking is the name of the game here  but, looking at a few other areas far removed from the desert furnace,  using the 1986 -2005 historical averages as a starting point,  Cen. Florida could see their summer average bump up from ~roughly~ 81.5 to somewhere between 90 and ...94,  San Diego = jumping from a historical JJA Avg. of 69.1 to 80,  San Francisco, from a chilly 62.4,  to 2 tenths shy of 75F, and San Jose rising from the '86-2005 historical avg. of 68.8 to ..possibly 82F, under the current / high scenario. That's obviously going to have quite a profound effect on what plants start to struggle, let alone what suddenly thrives..

FL. is hot enough as - is,  i can't imagine summers there that average several deg. hotter, lol.

I didn't see data for either Alaska or Hawaii on Voyager, so i don't know if they include either area.. ( would think both should be )

There was another " future climate scenario " site i'd found that offered more data, inc. from Alaska, Hawaii, ..and world -wide but i accidentally deleted the tab before saving a direct link to the site. 

That site had many more models to play with  and included future SST thoughts also.  From what i saw, Pacific could definitely warm quite a bit under the current / high emission / by 2080 -99 time frame..

Winter minimum temps aside, how much the Pacific warms, esp. along the California margin, could have some pretty big impacts on summer rainfall / potential expansion of the Monsoon here.  At least a couple recent studies linking warmer SST's off CA. to such an outcome, which was also seen during the warmer portion of the Pliocene which seems to be a decent analog of where we may be headed climate-wise..

[kinzyjr]

For anyone following along, here are the sites and a graphic showing how to access the information alluded to above:

Climate Voyager Site: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/voyager/

[Foxpalms]

I can only imagine what Kuwait city would be like in 2060 if it's already like this.

Inland whilst the lows are lower the highs are even more extreme than that. I'm pretty sure it hit 129.2f this year inland.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Foxpalms said:

I can only imagine what Kuwait city would be like in 2060 if it's already like this.

Inland whilst the lows are lower the highs are even more extreme than that. I'm pretty sure it hit 129.2f this year inland.

 

I think if Kuwait ..and other areas in that region... get any hotter than they already are,  you'll hear increasing reports of mass migration out of those areas.  Can't imagine anyone could adapt for long in a place where summers are constantly above 110 - 120+, plus the added factor an increased heat index that would make life absolutely miserable..

As far fetched as it might be in reality, i think the wildest scenario i saw while looking at what the future could look like in various parts of the U.S. was the higher end suggestion of zone 9 ..or 10 popping up in parts of the great lakes, ..and in Idaho of all places..

Great lakes, under the higher outcome scenario Really 🤔 this idea.







Zone 9, in Idaho??




Again, while both scenarios are probably far fetched / overblown,  or simply occurring too soon,  esp. for the great lakes but, who really knows..  Would be pretty wild though if Chicago in 2080 or 2099 was flirting with...   ..or just inside zone 9.  King or Queen Palms lining Navy Pier, or in Grant Park??

Have seen future vegetation distribution maps that have some desert plants currently restricted to zone 8b -10 areas down here spreading as far north as parts of Idaho and eastern Washington state in the future, so,  🤷‍♂️ ...anything is possible i suppose??

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I think if Kuwait ..and other areas in that region... get any hotter than they already are,  you'll hear increasing reports of mass migration out of those areas.  Can't imagine anyone could adapt for long in a place where summers are constantly above 110 - 120+, plus the added factor an increased heat index that would make life absolutely miserable..

As far fetched as it might be in reality, i think the wildest scenario i saw while looking at what the future could look like in various parts of the U.S. was the higher end suggestion of zone 9 ..or 10 popping up in parts of the great lakes, ..and in Idaho of all places..

Great lakes, under the higher outcome scenario Really 🤔 this idea.







Zone 9, in Idaho??




Again, while both scenarios are probably far fetched / overblown,  or simply occurring too soon,  esp. for the great lakes but, who really knows..  Would be pretty wild though if Chicago in 2080 or 2099 was flirting with...   ..or just inside zone 9.  King or Queen Palms lining Navy Pier, or in Grant Park??

Have seen future vegetation distribution maps that have some desert plants currently restricted to zone 8b -10 areas down here spreading as far north as parts of Idaho and eastern Washington state in the future, so,  🤷‍♂️ ...anything is possible i suppose??

The met office said here by 2050 in central London it will warm enough to grow mango trees. Personally though I don't see that happening by 2050.  What really regulates winter temps here are the sea temperatures, especially in Cornwall not so much in London as it's inland, though it still regulates the air masses.  Recently the sea temps have been a lot higher than average in the Atlantic. So even though I have noticed more polar vortex's with air coming from 90N for multiple days in a row they aren't as cold as they used to be.  The only freezes that have potential to kill the 9b palms here are easterly winds from Siberia such as in 2018 though those are very rare. And that one had cloud cover so it meant despite the very cold 850hpa temps for here it was still a 9b winter. 

If it does rise by 2c or more here then by that point it wouldn't be unreasonable to attempt royal palms and it definitely wouldn't be zone pushing as by that stage we would be  zone 10b. More like seeing how cool tolerant they are. It would be more of a trial on wether they would tolerate Jan which under a 2c rise would be 11c during the day and 7c at night.

The metoffice said the range for how much warmer the average temperature from today it will be by 2060 will be 1c to 4.2c higher in the winter and 1.2-5.5c warmer in the summer.

Winter average rainfall would be -1% to +35%. With summer rainfall being +1%to -49%. It's also worth noting the south east is stated to be the most vulnerable to extremes. Mainly for less rainfall and higher temperature the rest of the UK's averages.

These are the proposed 2080-2099 averages for winter. Highest emissions scenario would make the averages for Jan in central London 14c during the day and 10c at night.

Under the highest emissions scenario for the summer the average temp would be 26-27.4c.

 

The average summer high under the highest emissions would be 31c. It has already risen in July from 23c then to over 25c for the last 10 years the average July high. In would also mean central Londons average July low under that scenario would be 21-23c.

Winter precipitation

 

Summer precipitation.

This data here for the summer temperature change is interesting, as it almost perfectly matches the difference in the average high in London for the last 10 years compared to 1981-2000. This would mean by 2050 the average July high is only track here to rise by 2c more which I can personally see happening up to just over 27c. Were have already had years where July and August have averaged over that. Occasionally over 28c for the average high. 

2060-2080.

2060-80 average summer temp in London will supposedly be 23.4c-27.5c so roughly 25c. Which is hard to believe considering that's warmer than parts of the Med currently. The northern hemisphere at the higher latitudes is  the most effected hence why the anomalies here are far higher than the global average. What's also interesting is the lowest scenario temperature model also suggest the lowest precipitation totals. So low infact it would drop the annual rainfall down to 16 inches.

Essentially for here in London it means the climate will transition to csb, then csa with a very low chance of a semi arid climate. This year would meet the csb criteria, 2018 and 2022 csa. Infact there was a study published earlier this year which confirmed parts of Essex and London City airport. The last 10 years of data would meet the csb criteria. We will have to wait for more years of data however it's likely by 2030 it will be updated to csb officially. I remember people were laughing at UK palms for calling where he is Mediterranean, though whilst not like the typical med climates technically it is. It just barley scrapes that threshold.

Any way it is interesting to see the theoretical possibilities of what's possible we will see!

 

 

[DTS]

Zone 10 Michigan would be crazy

[Silas_Sancona]

14 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

The met office said here by 2050 in central London it will warm enough to grow mango trees. Personally though I don't see that happening by 2050. 

 Possible 2050 is too soon, but, ..you never know.  Can't count every time i'd heard this or that couldn't grow / would be killed / yada yada  back in San Jose..  Even from supposed longtime nursery " experts " yet, i'd find stuff / talk to people growing other stuff the " experts " said would fail there, inc. a few Mangoes, various " exotic " orchids, and the lone Royal palm in my own old neighborhood and various trees i'd planted that others had said would die in a bare -minimum cold spell.

Now Plumeria, which most people assumed couldn't be grown out there, ( because it is too wet / cold in winter )  are starting to pop up in various parts of town..

Obvious differences between Central CA and England  aside,  if i lived in an ideal spot in say London, i'd probably try Royal Palms, maybe a Mango..  Let alone other " tropical " fruits that are a little more durable / cold tolerant, like say Guava or Jaboticaba.

 

14 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Recently the sea temps have been a lot higher than average in the Atlantic. So even though I have noticed more polar vortex's with air coming from 90N for multiple days in a row they aren't as cold as they used to be.

This will probably be the biggest factor that determines how rapidly ( or not ) things change in the coming decades, both there and here in the states / other areas..

While i'm sure there would still be Polar Vortex -type events in a warmer world, if there isn't as much ice in the Arctic to " Charge the refrigerator " - so to say,  each fall / winter,  ..let alone the Arctic ocean itself taking longer to cool enough to form more ice  ..because of the lack of ice allows it to warm more each summer,   ..then you're not going to have the same deg. of potential pool of cold air building up up there  to tap into whenever the P.V. decides to relax allowing some of that cold air to spill south -somewhere-

Whether it crosses oceans ( better, from a moderating-effect standpoint ) or land,  if it isn't as cold to begin with,  imagine the " cold " air associated with that future Polar Vortex event might not have nearly as much bite where ever it ultimately ends up ..My thinking at least..  Would have a tougher time getting over barriers like the Rockies / other mountain areas here in the western U.S. as well, which is why the idea of 11B /12A zones showing up in CA or here makes sense, ...even if it is something that doesn't actually occur until after 2100,   rather than sooner, at some point within the suggested  2060-2099 time frame.

 

14 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

I remember people were laughing at UK palms for calling where he is Mediterranean, though whilst not like the typical med climates technically it is. It just barley scrapes that threshold.

Any way it is interesting to see the theoretical possibilities of what's possible we will see!

When it comes to defining them,  ..on a map or when out wandering in them, i always ask myself  " what exactly is " Typical " for X or Y climate / eco region "?  

Parts of CA classified as Mediterranean by many don't exactly fit the " by the book " definition when examined closely,  or when looking into the origins of some of the plants native to those specific locations themselves 

...so yea, while where you or UK Palms is located might be decades away from a solid, " by the book " definition of a Medi. type climate, if it did reach that far north ( not out of the question as far as i'm concerned )  that isn't to say you're not already starting to see X or Y  changes in that direction. So ..as far as i'm concerned, no reason not to call it as you see it,  so to say.. 


Yep, agree completely.. while any changes ahead might not occur quite as suggested, or as quickly as might be suggested, is definitely fun to look into what is possible.



 

[SeanK]

On 9/21/2024 at 2:57 AM, Foxpalms said:

Wish this was made for European cities too. But by looking at US cities it looks like we would be on track for zone 10a here by 2050. Currently just barely below the threshold from my weather station temps from 2019. With the already barley 10a parts of central London having an average annual low just over 32f/0c. 

The all time record low for London St James park is -9c/15.8f and St James park is usually around 1.5c colder than the city of London and the most protected parts of the city of Westminster. January here has gotten warmer, though the winter month I have seen the biggest difference is February.  The average high is now around 11c with an average low of 6.5c in the last 7 years.

 

I thought GW was due to shut down the North Atlantic Conveyor?

[Foxpalms]

2 hours ago, SeanK said:

I thought GW was due to shut down the North Atlantic Conveyor?

We will see about that, every time they mention it they contradict themselves.  It hasn't slowed down.  

 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Foxpalms said:

We will see about that, every time they mention it they contradict themselves.  It hasn't slowed down.  

 

Agree..  While there is evidence it may be slowing, overall,  how much it is doing so, let alone if it would actually shut down completely - within the span of a few decades vs. several centuries  is a much bigger question.

There is also a recent study that looked at the FL Current which seems to be holding steady / isn't showing signs of any radical changes..

FL. stays reasonably stable, imagine it would be harder for the rest of the current to really sputter, -at least in the near-er  term. Imo..

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-reassessing-stability-florida-current-insights.html

[Foxpalms]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Agree..  While there is evidence it may be slowing, overall,  how much it is doing so, let alone if it would actually shut down completely - within the span of a few decades vs. several centuries  is a much bigger question.

There is also a recent study that looked at the FL Current which seems to be holding steady / isn't showing signs of any radical changes..

FL. stays reasonably stable, imagine it would be harder for the rest of the current to really sputter, -at least in the near-er  term. Imo..

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-reassessing-stability-florida-current-insights.html

Even if there was a directional shift though or reversal of the currents in the far away future, that would actually make Europe significantly warmer. As the water would be coming straight up from cape verde rather than having to travel across the entire Atlantic ocean in the 30s and 40s N latitude.

[Silas_Sancona]

7 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Even if there was a directional shift though or reversal of the currents in the far away future, that would actually make Europe significantly warmer. As the water would be coming straight up from cape verde rather than having to travel across the entire Atlantic ocean in the 30s and 40s N latitude.

Not an impossible scenario..  

Well known U.S. climatologist mentioned in his YT popup tonight his involvement in an upcoming study on the AMOC / Gulf Stream. 

Will interesting to hear his thoughts once the study is released.