Polar Vortex

[SeanK]

Florida I10 

[SeanK]

Coastal GA

[SeanK]

Coastal SC

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Chester B said:

I’m at 36/37f just before sunrise.  No signs of frost on the roofs or car windows. 
 

I looked at Florida and it’s kind of shocking how far down the cold made it.  

38F here...SW Loop 610 and Hobby only 42F 

[Robert Cade Ross]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

38F here...SW Loop 610 and Hobby only 42F 

38.4° Manvel I’m satisfied lol

[MarcusH]

37.6° measured at the Randolph Air Force Base weather station which is about 5 miles away from my house.  It warmed up pretty quick though. Nothing dramatic so far.  Are those artic blasts shifting to the SE of the US lately or is the bullet with the Texas name on it , already in the chamber? 

[MarcusH]

42 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

38.4° Manvel I’m satisfied lol

Lol the thing is it's only November.  

[SeanK]

I checked Texas temps around 7:30 this morning. Even Amarillo was above freezing.

[Chester B]

Officially 37F at Bush Airport which is only a few miles from me.  No signs of damage to the frost sensitive plants like Bananas and Colocasia.  It’s currently 72F and after this back to the 80s for the foreseeable future. 

[Xenon]

24 hour lows

look at the difference north vs south of Lake P !!

 

30s deep into Pinellas 

 

Sudden dip into the 40s is probably enough to shock things like soursop and breadfruit into leaf drop

[PalmatierMeg]

On 11/11/2025 at 7:25 AM, SeanK said:

Is this what you're seeing this morning? 

°C

Not quite. This morning it was 43F. Over at the hospital in SFM yesterday morning was also 43F. Generally we are a few degrees warmer because we are closer to the coast and overlook a freshwater canal. These early cold temps will make my tropical palms very unhappy.

[PalmatierMeg]

On 11/10/2025 at 8:45 AM, MarcusH said:

If we see some below average cold fronts this winter I definitely lose my hope for mild winters. I believe colder , below average winters will be the norm . Climate is changing for sure.  

We've had some warmer-than-usual winters the past few years. We are overdue for a shellacking.

[MarcusH]

3 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

We've had some warmer-than-usual winters the past few years. We are overdue for a shellacking.

I like that word shellacking lolThe average might be above normal but the artic blasts are pretty nerve-racking .  Time to put on some boxing gloves. 

[MarcusH]

3 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Not quite. This morning it was 43F. Over at the hospital in SFM yesterday morning was also 43F. Generally we are a few degrees warmer because we are closer to the coast and overlook a freshwater canal. These early cold temps will make my tropical palms very unhappy.

What's the coldest event you've experienced in Cape Coral since you life there? 

[HudsonBill]

This is how cold northern pasco county got this am. That area that was in the 20s had a reading of 19 last winter. Im right south of the area in the 20s my tenp got down to 32.3 at its lowest last night. 

[flplantguy]

There are posts from some meteorologists about a sudden stratospheric warming event becoming more likely. It would be a rare event in November just like the last cold front was.  It's been interesting weather wise lately in Florida, so why not?

[MarcusH]

On 11/12/2025 at 9:41 PM, flplantguy said:

There are posts from some meteorologists about a sudden stratospheric warming event becoming more likely. It would be a rare event in November just like the last cold front was.  It's been interesting weather wise lately in Florida, so why not?

It's already happening !!! Someone's gonna ruin the party this winter.  

[SeanK]

A week back, the mid-range trends were for above average temperatures. Now there seems to be a turnaround, with December sharply colder. This is Dec. 1st, looking at the Euro AI model. 15F° below average.

 

[UK_Palms]

@SeanK The regular Euro 12z has something similar with the east Asia / Siberia cold pool shifting across the north pole (where it gathers more intensity) on its way over the pole and lines up in northwest Canada. If that happens it will spill straight down the eastern side of the Rockies, obliterating the mid-west USA and maybe the east coast too (Florida should be safe). I think you guys really need to watch out for the 2nd week of December.

25th November

 

3rd December (huge shift)

 

I hate to say it, but you guys taking the rap from that in the mid-west USA will fire up the jet stream and promote mild westerlies into Europe for us here, at your expense. You can somewhat see that knock on effect on the second hPa 850 chart above. We currently have below average temperatures here, but the mild air moves back in on that chart as the cold is all diverted to Canada, firing up the jet stream and Atlantic mildness.

The strange thing is, the long range modelling and analogs should favour colder/blocking setups for us here in western Europe going into December, while promoting mild/warm in most of USA. So it seems the opposite outcome to what the drivers support may end up happening. Probably due to a split in the vortex or something that disrupts the previously supported pattern for late November / early December.

Again the background drivers and longer range modelling had a Greenland high bringing the arctic air to Europe and milder air to the mid-west USA. The models must be picking up on a vortex split or reversal or something that disrupts that and shunts all the cold into northwest Canada initially and then into central/eastern USA, potentially. It will need watching closely. 2nd and 3rd week of December is going to be BAD for central/eastern USA, or us in Europe, depending on how the vortex behaves. I am less worried about it now for me though, compared to 24 hours ago. Just saying.

[MarcusH]

The voices are getting louder about a very strong polar vortex moving its way down to the lower 48 at the end of November and early December. I think we're getting hammered by a series of polar vortexes this winter 25/26.  Our daytime highs are well above 80s ,not a good sign.  

[SeanK]

Well, all the hype for a horrific polar vortex was just that, hype. We did however, switch from October to January as we passed Thanks giving.

[mnorell]

5 hours ago, SeanK said:

Well, all the hype for a horrific polar vortex was just that, hype. We did however, switch from October to January as we passed Thanks giving.

Try not to get ahead of yourself...the seasoned meteorologists I watch on YouTube have all made quite a point that this stratospheric warming event predicts a very unstable, wavy or spoke-like polar vortex that will follow in several weeks, roughly in the Christmas and New Year's timeframe. There is a lot of cold Siberian air loading up over the icy pole and likely spilling across into Canada and toward the midwest and eastern U.S. later this month. I keep seeing analog years of 1983 and 1989 being mentioned. Hopefully not the case, but keep your eyes and ears open...