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Texas 2024


Meangreen94z

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This upcoming January 14-16th event is looking more and more like the December 2022 event. Although along the coast they are predicting rain, we are forecasted to be dry through then. I’m seeing 17-19°F predicted in Central Texas Monday night, currently, but based on the last few years will assume it will drop further. Dallas may see 12°F or lower. 

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What is this? We just cannot catch a break. Even during an El Nino year now, we get a deep freeze. 

Those few days out of the year that ruin the palms, otherwise the winter is bearable. And the wetness certainly doesn't help.

This has been the consistent pattern for the last several years.

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34 minutes ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

What is this? We just cannot catch a break. Even during an El Nino year now, we get a deep freeze. 

Those few days out of the year that ruin the palms, otherwise the winter is bearable. And the wetness certainly doesn't help.

This has been the consistent pattern for the last several years.

It has been a strange span. 5 out of the last 6 have been harsh to extreme? 

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I’m holding out hope, last I checked they said low of 19…but who knows what will happen in the next couple of days…really don’t want to have to cover the 30+ tender plants in my yard…I keep thinking we will get back to normal…and like you said, a lot of moisture before a heavy freeze is awful news 

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I don’t know, Fox is showing a low of 15 and nbc is showing a low of 19 as of 11:15

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So ... yet another arctic blast is on its way to decimate Texas/adjacent states and finish off whatever has been left since the prior recent outbreaks.

The winter of 2017-2018 was definitely an omen — that winter brought some of the chilliest temps since the 80s to both Texas and Louisiana locales, but the two winters that followed afterwards were very gentle.

But the 2020s (so far) have only since amped up the ridiculousness — not only in terms of these harsh cold blasts, but also the punishing summer dry spells. And the two extremes have literally been back to back!

I should have known that catching a break like @Sabal_Louisiana said was too much to ask. Silly me. If I didn't know any better, I'd say that Texas/adjacent states have been cursed and forsaken. Definitely being punished for something.

Edited by _nevi
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As of now it’s looking not toooooo bad for me here in Alvin 25 minutes south of Houston…. I’m sure I’ll probably end up around 25° in the end but hoping for the best #Zone9B?🙄😹

IMG_7510.png

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1 hour ago, hinovak said:

I don’t know, Fox is showing a low of 15 and nbc is showing a low of 19 as of 11:15

I’m seeing 14°F Sunday night and 13°F Monday night for Fort Worth currently. Leander 16°F and Alvin 25°F for Monday night.  But it’s dropping by the hour. One weather model showed Houston dropping to 17°F, Dallas in the single digits.

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“It’s all so tiresome” meme…really over it…it’s so tempting to not protect and say it won’t be that bad, and then 6 hrs before it will drop another 8 degrees from what you thought and peace toast to all your stuff…

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Yeah, it seems like we’ve shifted from a decade of mild temperatures to a decade of cold.

Dallas currently showing 14°F Sunday, night 11°F Monday night. 
Austin 15°F Monday night

Houston/Alvin  23°F Monday night, 28°F Tuesday night.

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Every single desert museum paloverde tree is going to die in dfw, same with every Americana and blue glow agave….palms are not gonna be happy either..

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@Meangreen94z

Pick the nastiest, worstest, and overall most horrible model solution (regardless of model accuracy) — THAT will ALWAYS be the solution that verifies for Texas. 

Just watch those forecasted lows trend lower and lower. Sincerely want to be wrong on this.

 

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There is definitely no moderation in temperatures when it comes to Texas. 

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1 hour ago, Meangreen94z said:

There is definitely no moderation in temperatures when it comes to Texas. 

So far, the 12z runs: the ICON is, by far, the worst case scenario (especially for Texas, widespread single digits north, teens south),  GFS is the best (highs above freezing, lows no lower than mid 20s), and the EURO is inbetween (still some teens, but closer to 20°F, and the front is delayed compared to previous runs).

Still holding hope that the ICON is too extreme, and that this becomes more a Jan 2010,  Jan-Feb 2014,  and Jan 2018 event at worst ... versus a Feb 21'/Dec 22' repeat. Even the NAM model, also said to be good with "shallow arctic airmasses", isn't near as cold with the airmass compared to the NAM.

Edited by _nevi
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13 minutes ago, Cade said:

lol time to change my yard over from 9B to 8A-8B safe stuff 

I think that would strictly be sabals, mules, pindos, etc, as well as certain dates (canaries, sylvesters) and maybe livistonia chinesis.

I've also heard good things about chamaedorea microspadix (as well as radicalis).

Edited by _nevi
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39 minutes ago, _nevi said:

GFS is the best (highs above freezing, lows no lower than mid 20s)

 

Let's go GFS 😂, mid 20s would lighten my protection load a ton

41 minutes ago, Cade said:

lol time to change my yard over from 9B to 8A-8B safe stuff 

I'm going to doubledown on the tropicals. What's the worst that could happen? 5 below average winters in a row? 🤣

 

Our warm spell is coming one day (I hope). At this point, is asking for 4 perfectly average winters a in row too much? 😂

Don't get (too) discouraged everyone 🙂

 

 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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29 minutes ago, Xenon said:

 

 What's the worst that could happen? 5 below average winters in a row? 🤣

The 1980s ??

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11 minutes ago, WisTex said:

The 1980s ??

This recent streak has already been as cold as the 80s or close for many parts of TX

Now the 1890s coming back/millennia level cold would really be something 😅

Edited by Xenon
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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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The models backed down all around for Florida as well, so the trend is good and still far enough out that I think it will change. Hopefully for the better also. And if this is the "next 1980s" it's not as bad as then, so maybe a trend over time will make the next wave less as well.  Hopeful thoughts lol.

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Still not the winter I hoped for, but I can accept this. RGV looks like it might be spared. A more rapid northeast movement of the cold mass seems to be trending in the last two runs, hope it keeps doing so!

 gfs_T2m_scus_fh144-168.gif.8917481b3183c78f23b07b4c3147cd53.gif

 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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I'm seeing 15 to 16 degrees for my forecast, which isn't that bad considering that there is wind and cloud cover predicted. 

I'm worried that it will be clear and calm Tuesday night, which would bring single digits due to radiational cooling.

 

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3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Still not the winter I hoped for, but I can accept this. RGV looks like it might be spared. A more rapid northeast movement of the cold mass seems to be trending in the last two runs, hope it keeps doing so!

 gfs_T2m_scus_fh144-168.gif.8917481b3183c78f23b07b4c3147cd53.gif

 

Am really hoping this continues to stay to the north and moderates more.  We need more barbwire fences between us and Canada.  :)

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Clay

South Padre Island, Zone 10b until the next vortex.

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Really feeling for y’all. I grew up watching so many amazing Texas gardens on the various tropical plant and hardy palm forums in the early 2000s. Many of these gardens must be totally wiped out now. 😞

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34 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

Really feeling for y’all. I grew up watching so many amazing Texas gardens on the various tropical plant and hardy palm forums in the early 2000s. Many of these gardens must be totally wiped out now. 😞

A lot of tropical plants are hardier than they are rated, but these 3 years from hell cant be helping.

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Came across a pair of mules that looked to be recovered from 2021-2022? And a young Bismarck hopefully the owner protects it .

2nd pic a handful of large 2K size date palms just planted might give the owners a scare with this event Friendswood Tx :) 

276E2C65-1617-4DA4-A44A-97571D6297CF.jpeg

IMG_7542.jpeg

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Will be checking back on this thread. I'm in Lake Charles, so very close to Tx. Wondering of I need to protect queens, bismarck, CIDP and citrus? They're calling for lows of 23/24

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Our potential salvation continues....not forsaken yet! Local NWS has also pulled back on lows slightly

gfs_T2m_scus_fh126-156.gif.8961093cb108f798b15b1ced3a958fbe.gif

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Our potential salvation continues....not forsaken yet! Local NWS has also pulled back on lows slightly

gfs_T2m_scus_fh126-156.gif.8961093cb108f798b15b1ced3a958fbe.gif

IMG_7571.jpeg.24160d0790e8570579526cf9ab17389f.jpegI feel like this will be the final outcome lol still better than 2018 queen killer event so I’ll take it 

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2 hours ago, KsLouisiana said:

Will be checking back on this thread. I'm in Lake Charles, so very close to Tx. Wondering of I need to protect queens, bismarck, CIDP and citrus? They're calling for lows of 23/24

Give the Bismarck some heat . 🤞

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1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Our potential salvation continues....not forsaken yet! Local NWS has also pulled back on lows slightly

 

27 minutes ago, Cade said:

I feel like this will be the final outcome lol still better than 2018 queen killer event so I’ll take it 

I noticed that late this morning — even the ICON model now (as of Jan10 12z run featured below) only shows those same NDFD blend brief farther inland teens Tuesday morning 16th. Bear in mind that this same model ran consistently colder than the other models  regarding this coming event (not counting crazy CMC) — previous ICON runs (00z, yesterday's 12z) had sub-freezing high temps down to RGV, with lows deep into teens along the northern Gulf coastline for Wednesday morning 17th.

 

icon_T2m_scus_fh96-180.gif

Edited by _nevi
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1 hour ago, Cade said:

Give the Bismarck some heat . 🤞

Will do for sure! Definitely going to take caution. 

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4 hours ago, _nevi said:

 

I noticed that late this morning — even the ICON model now (as of Jan10 12z run featured below) only shows those same NDFD blend brief farther inland teens Tuesday morning 16th. Bear in mind that this same model ran consistently colder than the other models  regarding this coming event (not counting crazy CMC) — previous ICON runs (00z, yesterday's 12z) had sub-freezing high temps down to RGV, with lows deep into teens along the northern Gulf coastline for Wednesday morning 17th.

 

icon_T2m_scus_fh96-180.gif

I really hope this model is wrong, otherwise I'll be single digits.

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Houston 2023 almost had it's first 10b year, downtown and Hobby airport to the southeast didn't freeze, but there were lots of mid 30s. Calendar year lowest temp each year vs seasonal hardiness differ. It will freeze this 2023-4 winter season, as it did in December 2022 for the 22/23 winter season, but 2023 didn't freeze. 

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6 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

Houston 2023 almost had its first 10b year, downtown and Hobby airport to the southeast didn't freeze, but there were lots of mid 30s. Calendar year lowest temp each year vs seasonal hardiness differ. It will freeze this 2023-4 winter season, as it did in December 2022 for the 22/23 winter season, but 2023 didn't freeze. 

It would be a remarkable feat if it didn’t have major freezes 2 weeks prior to starting and 2 weeks after it ended.

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2 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

Houston 2023 almost had it's first 10b year, downtown and Hobby airport to the southeast didn't freeze, but there were lots of mid 30s. Calendar year lowest temp each year vs seasonal hardiness differ. It will freeze this 2023-4 winter season, as it did in December 2022 for the 22/23 winter season, but 2023 didn't freeze. 

My back yard low for 2023 was 36 degrees, although that sounds cool, unfortunately that doesn't really help when the actual winter, which spans years has a hard freeze anyway.

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Corpus Christi, TX, near salt water, zone 9b/10a! Except when it isn't and everything gets nuked.

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On 1/8/2024 at 8:36 PM, Meangreen94z said:

This upcoming January 14-16th event is looking more and more like the December 2022 event. Although along the coast they are predicting rain, we are forecasted to be dry through then. I’m seeing 17-19°F predicted in Central Texas Monday night, currently, but based on the last few years will assume it will drop further. Dallas may see 12°F or lower. 

Texas has not been the place to be to avoid severe cold or longer cold spells in recent years.  We'll know more in a few days.  It does appear this arctic blast will be tempered a bit.

On the positive side of this, hardy palm growers can benefit by selling seeds or offshoots of survivors of these severe cold spells/longer cold snaps.  There is a market for finding hardier varieties of palms, etc.  There definitely have been some "tests" in recent years that have exposed some things we didn't previously know.

Edited by RFun
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16 hours ago, amh said:

I really hope this model is wrong, otherwise I'll be single digits.

That was actually the warmest run in a while from that model. Subsequent runs have since come in colder.

Just one of many models, though — others like GFS, EURO aren't as severe (knock on wood).

Edited by _nevi
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2 minutes ago, _nevi said:

ICON = worst case scenario for Texas

 

icon_T2m_scus_fh123-123.gif

Wow that looks like a repeat of February 2021

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Brevard County, Fl

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