Jump to content
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT LOGGING IN ×
  • WELCOME GUEST

    It looks as if you are viewing PalmTalk as an unregistered Guest.

    Please consider registering so as to take better advantage of our vast knowledge base and friendly community.  By registering you will gain access to many features - among them are our powerful Search feature, the ability to Private Message other Users, and be able to post and/or answer questions from all over the world. It is completely free, no “catches,” and you will have complete control over how you wish to use this site.

    PalmTalk is sponsored by the International Palm Society. - an organization dedicated to learning everything about and enjoying palm trees (and their companion plants) while conserving endangered palm species and habitat worldwide. Please take the time to know us all better and register.

    guest Renda04.jpg

Florida winter 2023-2024


flplantguy

Recommended Posts

Wow than leans colder than weather.com and google. Hard to believe Citrus County had successful citrus production for over a decade at least when Inverness is still 9a and 30s in November is typical. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook discussion comes more on the increasing possibility of a cold mid December.  

"..Although the reforecast tools are in good agreement for above-normal temperatures across the  
eastern CONUS, forecast confidence is low as a blocking ridge at the higher  
latitudes over the Davis Strait and Greenland could bring an increasing chance  
of anomalous cold by mid-December. The analog tool derived from the manual  
500-hPa height blend features increased below-normal temperature probabilities  
across the Southeast. Therefore, the week-2 temperature outlook hedged colder  
from the automated tool and near normal temperatures are favored for much of  
the Southeast." 
  • Like 1

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read a new winter outlook for new mexico I need to find again.  It was talking about a setup in the pacific that would lead to a positive PNA similar to the 2010 pattern.  The downstream flow would then be a cold one here.  Good news for Florida is there is generally a good lead time in models for a major cold event, but this last dip in the NAO an AO was not so steep in models, just a cold event in forecasts, so it's not perfect.  It's surprising what the difference can be from here to just a bit south.  47 here and over 50 to 55 in Pinellas when the wind calmed down.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast from the NWS has dropped to 36 for me now. A little lower than I would think but the clouds are heavy and may clear out tonight so that's probably why.  I'm now thinking I will cover a few of the palms in ground that are more sensitive just in case since that's very close to frost territory. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently looks like low 40s here in town and high 30s or barely scraping 40F out by the airport.  That 5% chance of 32F or less just north of Brooksville on the NWS map shared by @JJPalmer probably went up.  Looks like there is another cold front coming in on its heels around the middle of next week.

image.thumb.png.d506a48a55b1211bd2877395af1e19b4.png

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They are calling for patchy frost near the Brooksville airport and 34 now.  38 predicted here both nights so ice on the car may happen but I doubt on anything biological. I did check the airport history and a freeze there is not abnormal in the last week of November.  My only gripe is if the cold fronts get stronger or too frequent as that is when we are in trouble. or a ton of snow north to pave the way for it.  I love the time between the cold fronts, especially when they hit NOT on the weekend.  80 by Saturday is perfect for me and the best part of living here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only calling for 48 here in MI early tomorrow.. Dreary this afternoon thats for sure. It never got above 59 at my place today. 

716436D5-CAD1-45B1-9BCE-D5CBD0579F36.jpeg

E664A071-197A-454E-85A5-3427CF72B636.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39.2F here as of 8:41 PM CST. Im supposed to be at this temperature at midnight.... Forecast low 34F by the NWS at like 5-7 AM CST. TWC has low of 32F. Accuweather has low of 33F. Pretty small range between the different sites.

There seems to be a small range of possible outcomes. Either way it looks certain that there will be frost, considering everything is covered in dew. With the way the temp is dropping right now, I fully suspect I have my first freeze. Expecting the lowest possible outcome to be around 30F. 

Foxtail is wrapped, banana trunks are wrapped, cat is wrapped, satsuma mandarin is wrapped (its a baby), potted stuff all moved inside. Ill report back about the low temp at some point tomorrow.

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Current temps across the state as of 8:52 PM CST on 11/28/23

Screenshot 2023-11-28 205150.png

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

Only calling for 48 here in MI early tomorrow.. Dreary this afternoon thats for sure. It never got above 59 at my place today. 

It barely eclipsed the 60F mark here at the house.  That extra degree won't mean much overnight though.

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coldest spot I could find this morning with upper 20s in the usual spot. Brooksville sat just above freezing for hours before popping up again. I had the same drop to 36 before it came up again too.  The wind must have started up again to stop the drop or it would have been colder.  Hopefully one of a few cold events this winter, if it's only just starting then it may get pretty chilly this year.

Screenshot_20231129-071521.png

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First below 40F night for us in Jacksonville,  noted a bit of frost on the rooftops and some yards while driving to a doctor's appointment. 

20231129_074344.thumb.jpg.6652a7ce6a9747ed589fe32a7322d671.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My area got down to 41 with some patchy frost on rooftops. North Orlando area in Longwood. Predicted was 45 with no frost. 
 

IMG_4907.jpeg

IMG_4908.jpeg

  • Like 4
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had ice on the car, but only the part away from the house.  The back end was not frozen where it was about 4 feet and closer to the house.  Ultimate low early on of 36.6 that rose to 39 before dawn.  Greenhouse was 50 so that's a win.

IMG_20231129_073728_01.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heres a good lesson for anybody with the ability to track their own temperature:

All the agencies overshot my low this morning. However, their forecast is not what i prepared for. When i observed temperatures falling well ahead of the forecast, i started giving a more likely outcome based on experience of how the temperature falls overnight on nights like this, and prepared accordingly.

As i type this, my temperature is sitting at 29.7F. The NWS expected 34F. TWC expected 32F. Accuweather expected 33F. Either way, the growing season is officially over here with this freeze.

Also, its very interesting as to what can happen on solid radiational cooling nights when a light wind occurs. I had two temperature spikes lastnight as a result of light wind:

Screenshot2023-11-29071136.thumb.png.bc3a5e869e3e013ce6ed7d39f3493d76.png

Screenshot2023-11-29071153.thumb.png.535a6868f30a4f8ef25c34857bc8a11c.png

So how did my protection go? It went great. Here are the results:

Screenshot2023-11-29072817.thumb.png.e824670d2d00a63e93c951a1f53b6d20.png

Screenshot2023-11-29072827.thumb.png.c224f7249d46e511c97c9ddc8f770b2d.png

  • Like 3
  • Upvote 4

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with readings between 43F and 45F.  There was no frost or ice on the car or roof this morning, thankfully.  KLAL reported 42F from 4am-5am.  These were all higher than predicted, as KLAL was forecast to go down to 39F and my area was forecast for 41F.  Above Interstate 4, the temperatures seemed to go a little lower overnight and probably hit the 39F forecast for the airport.

The WUnderground stations around KORL were predominantly reporting 46F-48F while the airport was reporting 51F at 10pm last night.  Similar scenario around 11pm.  This station appears to be reading a bit high.

It will be interesting to see what the Tarpon Springs Water Plant reported since this station often reports temperatures much lower than what we see on WUnderground.

  • Like 2

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if the warmer waters and expanded Hadley cell slowed the high and prevented it from getting as far south as they thought it would. My tempest sensor is the only part of the yard to drop below 40 for any decent length of time, everything near the house and in the trees was warmer.  My sensor recorded the wind too and the little raise that came with it. Looks like my yard is very radiation freezes vulnerable but any light wind movement changes it as does even slight canopy or larger tree biomass to add heat. The forest is almost a half zone warmer than the front on cool nights and it seems consistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It got colder than expected:

IMG_2368.thumb.png.91dc2a57454c56dc6133babdb0241374.png

Normally I’m about the same as @kinzyjr in Lakeland and even Orlando. Not the morning though. I’m not sure if it’s just a function of being further west and getting the cold air sooner, or something more localized like how cold air occasionally flows this way from the Brooker Creek Preserve (very rural.)  In any case, it wasn’t cold enough to do any damage and I learned more about which parts of the yard get colder. I’m planning on another experiment tonight.

  • Like 2

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NWS allows you to view station data across their various providers: link

You can increase the density (i.e. the number of stations shown on the map) if you zoom in a bit.  Using these stations, which are predominantly commercial-grade instruments, can supplement Weather Underground PWS data well. 

image.thumb.png.ffb19df44b639edf5ff673e32d7dfbda.png

  • Like 3
  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I use the wundermap, tempest station map, the NWS maps like above, and mesonet websites that collect the same data. PRISM has a similar modeling and history site as well that's more like a pin point forecast the NWS does.  Between them and the forecast is was close to what I expected and I can map out where more detail is needed for me to have a reasonable expectation of the next cold event.  I love it cuz I'm a weather nerd too lol.  Then I compare those to topography and soil types and it seems to give a partial picture of how it works, but there are always variables we don't have a hold on which is why no freeze warning when there was freezing temps shown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Not the morning though. I’m not sure if it’s just a function of being further west and getting the cold air sooner, or something more localized like how cold air occasionally flows this way from the Brooker Creek Preserve (very rural.)  In any case, it wasn’t cold enough to do any damage and I learned more about which parts of the yard get colder. I’m planning on another experiment tonight.

It seemed to be a flow more down the west side of the peninsula.  Sometimes this happens with impact freezes too and your garden gets nuked, like what happened in the January 2008 freeze.  Fernandina Beach fared better than a lot of places on the Gulf Coast not named St. Petersburg.  Thankfully, this was a trial run without any damaging cold.  Only 4 more months...

24 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

The NWS allows you to view station data across their various providers: link

You can increase the density (i.e. the number of stations shown on the map) if you zoom in a bit.  Using these stations, which are predominantly commercial-grade instruments, can supplement Weather Underground PWS data well. 

Thank you a ton for this link.  I see a few of my favorite local stations on there, including the DVP2 I often use to verify or toss out my own readings.  There are stations on there close to some of our favorite spots to visit like Leu Gardens as well.

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think multiple factors combine to make the west side more vulnerable and it happens to stop right before I4.  Closer to the continent source by a bit, dryer sand, no open water or wetlands until central Pasco county, and the topography lead to a channel of cold air right to central Florida.  I posted a 27 reading that fits the panhandle a large distance to the north.  If that area were wetlands and not dry sand the temps would be much different for all of us but especially spring hill.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steep drop overnight and a fast recovery in the last few hours as the wind came in. The difference in the open yard was 8 degrees in minutes, so I question the accuracy of the tempest on a radiational night. Sensors elsewhere kept above 40ish again so I think it just runs cooler in general like when another surface radiates heat like cars.  Greenhouse 47+

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The door is wide open.  If the cold air decides to show up, it could be mighty freezish in these here parts.  Keep your eyes wide open the first 15-20 days of December.  The AO has bottomed out and looks to be in no hurry to go neutral or positive.  It resembles the AO of December 2009 that delivered a sucker punch 3 weeks later (early January 2010).  That was an El Niño year too.

image.thumb.png.c107663e900fbc0d5e6b1bdbd5d0e4ee.png

image.thumb.png.6dcc38cef69b8ef923bed7f454deb8eb.png

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The door is wide open.  If the cold air decides to show up, it could be mighty freezish in these here parts.  Keep your eyes wide open the first 15-20 days of December.  The AO has bottomed out and looks to be in no hurry to go neutral or positive.  It resembles the AO of December 2009 that delivered a sucker punch 3 weeks later (early January 2010).  That was an El Niño year too.

image.thumb.png.c107663e900fbc0d5e6b1bdbd5d0e4ee.png

image.thumb.png.6dcc38cef69b8ef923bed7f454deb8eb.png

 

 

I know many people won't want to hear this but if it has to happen I hope it's this year before I plant more and so i can see how my yard does. I keep seeing a few indicators too but not the crazy forecast, but they also didn't forecast a large dip like this week had.  It's been trending negative for a long time too so I was hoping it would flip back over winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another cool down coming next week from the look of it:

image.png.b337e50d7ef7cd7f9f6a3b1fcbb60bd0.png

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm reading a few blogs saying there is a possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming mid month which would lead to cold around Christmas to New Year's.  The pattern is not looking good for cold around the worst time for it.  Hopefully just the same jet stream clouds and rainfall to help bust the drought.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Classic El nino pattern showing in the long range geopotential height anomaly.  It's been cloudy and a bit rainy here already this fall, could lead to some crazy winter weather for the eastern US and cold in Florida if the storms set up right.  Hopefully a negative PNA at the same time, and no more negative arctic and north Atlantic oscillations.  The big freezes of the 80s happened when the PNA was averaging positive over long periods of time, but then and the late 1890s had a negative Atlantic multidecadal oscillation at the same time.  Right now it's positive and has been since 1998.  The last positive run was 1927/8 to 1961/2, the last warmer period. Suspect years for Florida freezes too.  I wonder if we go into a negative AMO if those big freezes become frequent again. The AMO is water temperature dependent, so with warming Atlantic water it may not ever go negative again.  I do not envy meteorologist work.

PXL_20231205_191551822.jpg

PXL_20231205_191605455.jpg

PXL_20231205_192758358.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pasco county lows this morning on the official stations.  Wunderground shows the cold spot in the area better, but it seems personal home stations tend to read lower than the official ones.  I think it's a few factors, so both have merit as my yard reflects both.  36 in the open yard on the tempest and above 40 everywhere else under trees.  Even a sabal by itself 10 feet from the station showed 5 degrees warmer, but the sensor is in a boot at 6 feet just below the fronds. Nearby official stations are at 38, places  in small parking lots near open areas so the asphalt may give the bump. Cool to see how fast it changes and how the time below certain temps can vary over short distances. 

PXL_20231207_132008456.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cold spots in detail on wunderground.  A 26 in there, while Pinellas on the water is at 50 still.  Yet everyone here wants to plant Christmas palms for their landscaping anyway lol.

Screenshot_20231207-071923.png

Screenshot_20231207-071929.png

Screenshot_20231207-071938.png

Screenshot_20231207-071950.png

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the moment at least, it appears we have escaped unscathed.  Unfortunately, winter isn't here yet.  As of now, next week looks benign.

image.png.c997e681e107b0b51b8a06247a313d29.png

  • Like 3

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Another relatively cold one here.

IMG_2453.thumb.png.59d6f733147b657060dd4a6e7361b1fc.png

I don’t remember having this much of a temperature difference from you guys on the West coast. It must be the way the lows have been coming through?

My low was 50.7 last night not too shabby. 57A49ABF-31F9-4F0A-8EF5-EA2006680B64.thumb.jpeg.891a899e0a2d1f5fc8f3bcc5c2cdbe8e.jpeg

 

 

45 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

For the moment at least, it appears we have escaped unscathed.  Unfortunately, winter isn't here yet.  As of now, next week looks benign.

image.png.c997e681e107b0b51b8a06247a313d29.png

Well good news! We zone pushers can relax for now at least. The way I look at it though is if I gamble I better be prepared to lose. A freeze, drought or hurricane is out there somewhere waiting to pounce! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, D. Morrowii said:

I don’t remember having this much of a temperature difference from you guys on the West coast. It must be the way the lows have been coming through?

My low was 50.7 last night not too shabby. 57A49ABF-31F9-4F0A-8EF5-EA2006680B64.thumb.jpeg.891a899e0a2d1f5fc8f3bcc5c2cdbe8e.jpeg

 

 

Well good news! We zone pushers can relax for now at least. The way I look at it though is if I gamble I better be prepared to lose. A freeze, drought or hurricane is out there somewhere waiting to pounce! 

The wind turned out of the NE very early keeping the east coast balmy.  50.1 F was my lowest this AM.    It could be so much worse.

  • Like 4

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...