For some, Florida drought is getting very "extreme"

[D. Morrowii]

On 7/23/2023 at 9:26 PM, Looking Glass said:

It’s crazy how hyper-local the wet season rains can be here.   Weather calling for zero inches / sprinkles….  And instead, it’s a good soak out there, with the gutters gushing.    You could be 10 minutes  away and dry as a bone.  Last year, was the exact opposite.   Looks like the next few days will be dry though.  
 

It’s was clear, sunny, and pass-out hot during the day, so I did get my chance to trim and mow, but it was brutal out there in that sun.  

Night shots…

 

We’ve had some major storm cells skim right past us here.  A couple days ago not 3 miles away they got a couple inches while my neighborhood got .08 lol. I see it coming and then somehow a gap opens up or it just disappears. 

[flplantguy]

4 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

Great!  A nice deep soak is a lifesaver during the dry spells.  I view irrigation as life support to get you through, but nothing can compare to a good rain getting down deep.  

My thoughts too!  I expect some quick changes in the yard now.  Almost chilly overnight at 72🤣

[sonoranfans]

7 inches of rain so far this year, compared with an annual average of about 32 inches by the end of july so we are 25 inches below a typical average year.  Keeping new plantings happy is rough this year, and potted plants are getting cooked.  I guess the rain we usually get is going to the northeast US.  I saw the anna maria island low of 82F today compared with 77F at my place.  I have never heard of anna maria being more than 2 degrees warmer than here, the gulf water must be really warm for this to happen.

[kinzyjr]

12 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

We’ve had some major storm cells skim right past us here.  A couple days ago not 3 miles away they got a couple inches while my neighborhood got .08 lol. I see it coming and then somehow a gap opens up or it just disappears. 

Been the same lately.  We'll start the day with >= 50% chance of rain and not see a drop.  Of in the distance you see some dark clouds and maybe hear some thunder, but all bark and no bite.

[Jimbean]

I've been getting rained on here every day.  You guys can have it. 

[D. Morrowii]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Been the same lately.  We'll start the day with >= 50% chance of rain and not see a drop.  Of in the distance you see some dark clouds and maybe hear some thunder, but all bark and no bite.

On that note we got 1.39” today on what was forecast as lowest chance of rain this week 😂

[PalmatierMeg]

Total monthly rainfall as of 7/17/23 = 1.79”

Total monthly rainfall as of today 7/26/23 = 1.79”

Net increase = 0”

Thanks to west winds and Sahara dust we are parched as a desert. Every day features dawn to dusk blazing sun and temps in the mid- to upper-90s as well as requisite heat advisories. I get up at 6 a.m. several times a week to hand water the many small palms that replace what Ian destroyed. Being cooped up indoors every day is a drag.

[sonoranfans]

I saw on the weather channel that manatee bay buoy was measuring 101.2F for the water temperature.  Yeah its shallow and hotter than the gulf but the gulf is also cooking in the upper 90's in close   I have not seen this dry a wet season here, june plus july of under 3" rain, a drastic departure from a few years ago when it rained every other day this time of year.  My daughter came to visit  7-8 years ago and it was cloudy for a week before she came.  Water temp was 77F on july 4th about 20 degrees lower than this year on the 4th.  The sun heats the water radiatively and when there are no clouds it can get hot.  The heated water increases humidity and that leads to high dew points and high overnight low temps.  This is somehow connected to the atmospheric river that eliminated californias 15 year drought.  Dams are overflowing and flooding fears will continue to winter as the snow melt continues.  I was counting on a wet summer for some of my wet loving palms in containers.  Now I run around with a hose every other day just to keep them alive.

[flplantguy]

There are a few storms moving back towards the coast this evening, a first for the summer.  The lightning show is a first too most of the others were rain without much lightning.  The pattern never got going and is still struggling, but maybe its all starting to come together now. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by flplantguy
spelling

[PalmatierMeg]

Rain update!

Last night we got 0.75” of rain at our parched palm paradise. Sign of rainy season days to come? We can only hope so as half the “wet” season has withered away. 

Rainfall total since early June:

1.79” + 0.75” = 2.54”

[Looking Glass]

8 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Rain update!

Last night we got 0.75” of rain at our parched palm paradise. Sign of rainy season days to come? We can only hope so as half the “wet” season has withered away. 

Rainfall total since early June:

1.79” + 0.75” = 2.54”

Looks like you’ve got some wet weather the next few days.   I see red on the radar in your neck of the woods.   Plants should be poppin…  Enjoy!  
 

[Jimbean]

We have minor flooding in south Brevard.  Like I said, you guys on the west coast can have some of this. 

[kinzyjr]

5 hours ago, Jimbean said:

We have minor flooding in south Brevard.  Like I said, you guys on the west coast can have some of this. 

At this point, send some here too.

[Jimbean]

4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

At this point, send some here too.

my backyard is generally elevated and doesn't flood.  Today I had to hook up  a chain to a bush to get it out of mud.  That's how much rain we've had here.  Many yards are flooded past the ditches.  It's been raining here practically everyday, and usually pours.  Lately it's been pouring for hours, from morning to afternoon.  You guys on the west side can have it.  Blow the winds the other way.

[Looking Glass]

4 hours ago, Jimbean said:

my backyard is generally elevated and doesn't flood.  Today I had to hook up  a chain to a bush to get it out of mud.  That's how much rain we've had here.  Many yards are flooded past the ditches.  It's been raining here practically everyday, and usually pours.  Lately it's been pouring for hours, from morning to afternoon.  You guys on the west side can have it.  Blow the winds the other way.

Same here, but I hate to complain about it.   Last year was the opposite and sucked.   The plants are happy at least and it sucks to hand water all the time.  

[PalmatierMeg]

Got another 1/2” in a quick downpour yesterday.

Total rainfall for June/July so far = 3.04”

That’s still less than the average combined total of our two driest months of dry season (Dec. & Apr.). Sheesh.

[SubTropicRay]

Tampa is 14” below normal for the year.  The east wind is trying to get established.  It’s simply not the year for it.  The driest summer on record for many west coast locations is happening right before our eyes.

[bubba]

Wish we could send some over from here to you!

[SubTropicRay]

From the NWS Tampa Bay today....it's all over but the crying....

 

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Ridging is currently sitting over the area with the morning skew-t
showing PWs around 2.2. For us this is giving us generally weak
flow but with plenty of moisture to work with. Typically in this
flow pattern we see early afternoon showers along the coast
before a very slow movement inland. Due to the nature of the
storms this flow regime typically brings locally heavy rainfall in
areas as storms will be very slow to move.

This pattern looks to stay in place until Tuesday when the ridge
sadly starts to shift south once again. This will bring back the
west to southwest flow meaning more dry days for our coastal areas
which need the rain the most. This southwest flow looks to stick
around through the rest of the week

[SubTropicRay]

On 7/25/2023 at 9:05 PM, Jimbean said:

I've been getting rained on here every day.  You guys can have it. 

If there were a way to take you up on this offer, I surely would.

[kinzyjr]

While locations in Downtown Lakeland got 1-2 inches of rain, my location managed to skate by unscathed - 0.00 inches.  Been stuck in a doughnut hole lately.

[D. Morrowii]

11 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Tampa is 14” below normal for the year.  The east wind is trying to get established.  It’s simply not the year for it.  The driest summer on record for many west coast locations is happening right before our eyes.

Sheesh, that could almost be the storm surge map for Ian’s land fall couldn't it?. Somebody must have put a weather curse on the Central West part of Florida. Seriously though I hope the rain shows up for you guys soon. 

 

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

While locations in Downtown Lakeland got 1-2 inches of rain, my location managed to skate by unscathed - 0.00 inches.  Been stuck in a doughnut hole lately.

I just need to keep my mouth shut and be grateful over here. I know our turn for some weather related challenge will show up at some point but right now the weather gods are being very kind. 

[SubTropicRay]

In our 1.5 days of ESE wind, I got 3 inches of rain.  Imagine that, a normal wind pattern for a small window of time.  No worries though, the WSW wind returns by Saturday squashing any hope of salvaging what little is left of the rainy season.

 

[flplantguy]

On the edge of the drought we have gotten just enough, and random luck has filled gaps the last 2 weeks.  Plants that can handle the sand here natively have to be some of the toughest outside of the worst deserts.  Long range outlook is showing a rainier than average winter north and warmer than average south florida, so maybe the rainy season will linger and help make up the difference.

[SubTropicRay]

More WSW wind.  Cry me a river....


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
441 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Slightly more moisture will drift north into the area Friday, but
with southwest to west flow PoPs will still only range from 30
percent near the coast from Tampa Bay north to 50 percent over the
interior and southwest Florida. Over the weekend the low level
flow becomes rather light as the ridge axis sets up across central
Florida with moisture increasing leading to higher rain chances,
scattered to numerous PoPs, across the entire area. This deeper
moisture will hold into early next week, but as the trough deepens
the low level ridge will become suppressed back to south Florida
with a cold front moving into the southeast states shifting the
flow back to southwest to west. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are still expected early next week, but timing of
the highest rain chances will shift to morning and early afternoon
near the coast then moving inland during the late afternoon and
evenings.

[flplantguy]

Im setting up irrigation this weekend, enough is enough.  I planted out some tough seedlings that the rainy season should be enough for... and one royal poinciana that had a few very healthy leaves dropped and looked dead. Im now watering every day and its starting to put out a leaf, so everything gets a dripper minimum and a switch so i can turn them off. Once i do this the pattern will shift where i am, and the whole system will be turned off and i will be buying fungicide instead🙄🤣.

[SubTropicRay]

On 8/9/2023 at 8:38 AM, flplantguy said:

Im setting up irrigation this weekend, enough is enough.  I planted out some tough seedlings that the rainy season should be enough for... and one royal poinciana that had a few very healthy leaves dropped and looked dead. Im now watering every day and its starting to put out a leaf, so everything gets a dripper minimum and a switch so i can turn them off. Once i do this the pattern will shift where i am, and the whole system will be turned off and i will be buying fungicide instead🙄🤣.

I'd love to utilize some fungicide right about now.  After nearly 3 solid months of the same wind pattern, I don't see it changing.  My concern is whether this will become a new normal.  I will put a halt on my gardening prowess and significantly scale back my "operation" if that's going to be the case.  The water bills and keeping up with the drought takes a toll on you after awhile.

[flplantguy]

47 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

I'd love to utilize some fungicide right about now.  After nearly 3 solid months of the same wind pattern, I don't see it changing.  My concern is whether this will become a new normal.  I will put a halt on my gardening prowess and significantly scale back my "operation" if that's going to be the case.  The water bills and keeping up with the drought takes a toll on you after awhile.

My fear too is that its a change thats more frequent, if not permanant.  Its part of the theories on climate change that we would dry out, but this flip of a switch is crazy.  Imagine this pattern with the trough up north in winter? Yikes. 

[Looking Glass]

3 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

I'd love to utilize some fungicide right about now.  After nearly 3 solid months of the same wind pattern, I don't see it changing.  My concern is whether this will become a new normal.  I will put a halt on my gardening prowess and significantly scale back my "operation" if that's going to be the case.  The water bills and keeping up with the drought takes a toll on you after awhile.

It’s just an anomalous year.   Weather patterns can vary quite a bit.   A few hours away, and we are getting rain like every day, to every other day.  Last year was like the wet season that never came, for us.  Hot, dry, and sunny.  Had to hand water and irrigate every other day from spring to fall.  Don’t bulldoze the palms and plant cactuses just yet.  

[PalmatierMeg]

July ended up with the 3.04" I reported on 7/29 covering June & July.

So far in Aug we got the following

8/1  nada, 8/2  0.40", 8/3  0.25", 8/5  1.75", 8/6  0.20",  8/7 nada, 8/8 nada, 8/9  nada, 8/10 nada as of 1:30 p.m.  

In the meantime, daily highs as measured on my shaded, north-facing thermometer in the Caribbean Garden have been upper 90s to over 100F so far this whole month, peaking at 102.6F a couple days ago.  Lows have been running 84-86F. The humidity is so high you feel like you're breathing in pea soup. I've been going outdoors just after sunup most mornings to work or hand water in the garden but can tolerate only tolerate 30-60 minutes before feeling signs of heat exhaustion. Hard to get much done.

Oh, it's 99.7F at the moment.

[D. Morrowii]

0.17 inches so far in August where I’m at. The heat and lack of rain just over the last 10 days has the grass half brown already. The rain barrels will be empty today if it doesn't rain. Theres been rain around us most days it just hasn’t landed here lately. I cant complain about drought though.

[kinzyjr]

4 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

0.17 inches so far in August where I’m at. The heat and lack of rain just over the last 10 days has the grass half brown already. The rain barrels will be empty today if it doesn't rain. Theres been rain around us most days it just hasn’t landed here lately. I cant complain about drought though.

You see the clouds forming and by the time they get to you, they evaporate or go everywhere else except over your slice of paradise.  It's been happening here since the last 10 days of July or so.  Aside from not watering the plants like it is supposed to, the lack of rain tends to give high temperatures a chance to eclipse 100F with regularity.  Definitely a forgettable "growing" season thus far.

[ruskinPalms]

This is the driest I’ve ever seen it here, summer or winter. It just doesn’t rain here this summer. I’ll be glad when cold fronts can return here for a number of reasons, freezes be damned lol. I have no idea how much rain we’ve had here this summer (year) but it has not been much at all. Only has stormed a few times this entire summer. Very abnormal.

[ruskinPalms]

Maybe this is becoming the Kona side of Florida 🤣

[D. Morrowii]

Its definitely been a hotter year so far too. I have notifications set up on the weather station for rain, cold, wind and heat. At 95F I get an email. Last year I think I got 3 or 4 heat notifications and they were spread out. This year I’ve had at least a dozen. 

[PalmatierMeg]

August total thru 8/10 = 2.6”

8/11 = 1.0” which makes Aug total = 3.6”

Beats the June/July rainfall

[sonoranfans]

1.09 inches of rain for august with 6" typical for august.  I used to leave and work remotely for 4-6 months at a time.  I'd have a lot of dead palms if I did that this year.  I have 2x a week irrigation from HOA well and add 3 days of my own in this heat.  Seems like its been 95 high lately with dewpoints of 77-80.  Anna Maria Island has been up to 4F degrees HOTTER than my place 15 miles inland due to gulf water temps which usually keep anna maria 3-4 degrees cooler over night.  Gulf water temperatures are as high as 92F.  All these sunny rainless days are cooking the ocean.  To me I havent felt sun this hot on the back since I lived in arizona.  When walking in and out of shade it does remind me of arizona, though its not as hot a sun as arizona.  Rain and temperature are inversely related, less rain more heat and we have had ~8 inches this year so far.  That is like an arizona number, not a florida number.

[SubTropicRay]

6 straight 96F days with nary a cloud in the vicinity.  You can't have rain without clouds.  Name me the last August where 6 days passed with clear blue skies.   Some full sun palms and plants are getting some sunburn and the oaks keep dropping leaves out of season.  You'll never here me state this .....COME ON FALL!

[Eric in Orlando]

At my house in Altamonte Springs (about 14 miles NW of downtown Orlando) its going on 3 weeks now since a good rain, only a few very light rains that evaporate the next day. Luckily we have reclaimed water for irrigation or I would have drastically changed the landscape into more native or xeric. Rain started good in June and through mid July then tapered off to nothing. But even in June and July the rains did not have much lightning like usual, only a few storms, just mainly rain.

[JLM]

WPC 7 day rainfall forecast below, frontal boundary is expected to drop south towards the northern Gulf Coast, as it does that itll drag some tropical moisture over the FL Peninsula. Currently looking at totals around 3 inches for most areas, with localized amounts of 4-5 inches possible. Fingers crossed this comes to fruition