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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season


JLM

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The weekend is now behind us, and we have some things to talk about.

First off, Invest 92L looks very healthy for a June MDR storm this morning. With this, the NHC has increased development probabilities to 100%. A tropical depression or storm will likely form later today. 
92L currently looks to be developing into a Tropical Depression at the time of this message being typed. There are curved banding features evident on satellite, and outflow has started to blow towards the Equator on some of the most recent frames. This is important to sustain convection over the system, and given that it appears to be breathing semi well this morning, it shouldnt take long for that TD status.
So what will happen with 92L? Well first off its still got to develop into at least a TD and have a well defined center before models will have a good hold on this. For now though, models seem to think that this may become a hurricane before approaching the Lesser Antilles in the next 4-5 days. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the track forecast, as a weaker system will move faster and will continue into the Caribbean, where it will likely die off fairly quickly. The other option is a stronger solution which means it will move slower. The thing about a stronger/slower storm is that it will likely recurve before reaching the Antilles and wouldnt really be a problem at that point besides boating/overseas shipping interests. Anyways, the Lesser Antilles needs to monitor the progress of 92L over the coming days.
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Next up is newly dubbed Invest 93L, which is another tropical wave thats right behind 92L. This wave's development chances are highly dependent on how 92L develops. A stronger 92L would induce a lot more shear over this system and would kill it off quickly. A weaker 92L may allow this to live on, although some shear from 92L will still likely be an issue. 

93L is sustaining some convection this morning, the wave axis appears to be oriented from the SW to the NE. This wave axis will need to rotate around and become oriented from S to N before it can really develop. Im not very sure where 93L will track and how strong it will get. We need to deal with 92L first before we dive into 93L. 93L should also be watched by the Antilles but as of right now im thinking that 93L ends up being an open wave as it nears the islands, bringing beneficial rainfall to the region following 92L. 93L has a 40% chance of development in the next 7 days.
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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Let the games begin. Could be an interesting season - certainly not for the faint-hearted.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Tropical Depression 03L has formed, and is expected to get the name Bret today. NHC is forecast Three to be a hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles with max winds of 80 mph.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should be closely following the progress of this system and should go ahead and start getting preparations underway.

145832_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.f3916c8d01c2db80d4ca97c1775059d1.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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5 hours ago, JLM said:

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should be closely following the progress of this system and should go ahead and start getting preparations underway.

There were people at the grocery stores already loading up with bottled water.

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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No Cape Verde formed in June has ever hit Florida. Water too cold. Either a fish storm or way down deep in the Carribean.

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What you look for is what is looking

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51 minutes ago, bubba said:

No Cape Verde formed in June has ever hit Florida. Water too cold. Either a fish storm or way down deep in the Carribean.

By this time of year, the water is certainly warm enough. Water temperatures arent the problem, especially this year. The problem is wind shear, which tears them apart. Bret will hit a wall of wind shear as it enters the Caribbean, and will die out there. It will join all the other storms that have died in the "Caribbean Graveyard".

Another issue that Bret will encounter is some dry air. While the Saharan Air Layer is super relaxed for June, this doesnt mean there isnt any. We will need to watch to see if the SAL stays reduced, as this will help to determine how much activity we get in the MDR this season.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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  • 4 weeks later...

Not related to the North Atlantic, but Hurricane Calvin in the Eastern Pacific may pose a threat to the Hawaiian Islands. We will have to see if Calvin can hold itself together between now and then, as the system has moved into colder waters with more stable air. Calvin is currently weakening and is expected to barely be hanging on as a Tropical Storm by the time it reaches Hawaii. Regardless of whether or not Calvin survives as a tropical entity, it will pose a threat for heavy rainfall and some gusty winds.

For the Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Don is currently churning in the north central Atlantic. It is expected to hang around for a while before getting carried off or just dissipating. 

Looking ahead into the future, there are a few interesting looking tropical waves that will move off the coast of Africa in the coming weeks, although not currently expecting much from these. Stay tuned for any changes.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Its been almost a week since the previous update. Don, now a fully tropical storm, is still churning over the Atlantic and has actually made a loop. It is expected to strengthen to near 65 mph before hitting its own cold wake and also being carried off northeast. Don is no threat to land.

The next item of discussion is Invest 95L, which is located in the MDR. It currently has a 70% chance to develop in the next 5 days. There are a few inhibiting factors, one of those being dry air. Dry air will actually be the main inhibitor for 95L. Right now it has not been able to expand its convection because of the dry air. It is currently sustaining through what we call "DMIN", or Diurnal Minimum, which is when convection usually dies out over the oceans. DMIN occurs around sunset, so of course the opposite of this is "DMAX", or Diurnal Maximum. DMAX occurs around sunrise and is when convection is most favored. For 95L to be sustaining through DMIN, that is pretty telling. Convection has expanded a little bit since peak DMIN. As we head towards DMAX, it will be interesting to see if it can organize enough convection over the next 12 hours to become a tropical cyclone. 95L already has a low level circulation, or LLC. This is what the NHC tracks as the official center. The framework for a tropical system is already there, we just need sustained and organized convection. I wouldnt be surprised if 95L is classified as a Tropical Depression at some point tomorrow. 

So what is 95L's future looking like? Honestly, 95L's future is EXTREMELY uncertain and will rely HEAVILY on what it does over the next couple of days. If 95L can manage to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, it might have a fighting chance in the Caribbean Sea. Some of the previous hurricane models had shown something like this, and brought it up to hurricane status over the eastern Caribbean. If this were to happen, it would probably mean we would have a long term tropical system to deal with. The most recent hurricane specific model runs have shown 95L being unable to even become a Tropical Depression until, in some cases, right before the Islands. If this were the case, 95L would die out fairly quickly in the Central Caribbean Sea due to unfavorable conditions. So to say the least, the future of this system is highly uncertain and depends a lot on what happens over the next few days as it comes closer to the Islands.

Another thing that is not helping with 95L's future in model guidance is that its such a small storm that some models may not even be resolving it as an actual entity. This is something to keep in mind over the next few days. Models have also been up and down, so really watching satellite trends is probably the best way forward right now. Currently, there is no threat to the US, but those down in the islands from Grenada northward to Guadeloupe needs to pay attention, as impacts will occur down there beginning in the next 4 days or so. 95L may be a tropical storm before reaching the islands as an upper end, to being an open wave as a lower end. Tropical waves can and often do pack a punch, so just be ready for it.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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JLM, I do appreciate all the time you take to post about hurricanes.
 

Everyone in Puerto Rico exhales once November comes. And I worry about everyone in regions prone to these ever more serious storms.

Every year I try to be better prepared, but know there is no way to protect all my belongings and land (and palms)!
 

Still having gone through 6 months of no electricity with only a small rarely functioning portable gas generator and no city water for 3 months following María in 2017, I am happy to have a propane powered push button generator and a big water tank.

Plus stored potable bottled water too.
 

Here the city power and water often unpredictably “pause” for hours to a few days partly because improvements are being made to the systems. 

I am glad to have gone through the expense and trouble to get the power line from the street buried the long way to my house as it is inevitable that limbs and bamboo from a steep hill above will fall again. 

And I learned that many banks close and ATMs don’t work and cash is the only way to pay only when roads are clear enough to get to stores that might be open and have supplies. 
 

Even the few banks that opened with long lines and hour or more drives limited withdrawals to $100 per day. 
 

It took years but I understand PR has received the funds promised following Fiona last year and María and is making visible improvements to infrastructure even in my rural area.
 

Anyway, thanks again to you and all who credibly help give me advance notice and hope everyone stays safe.

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Cindy Adair

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Tropical Storm Don has now become the first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season! Luckily it is up in the subtropics and will not impact anybody.

Invest 95L has failed to maintain its thunderstorm activity, and will likely not develop at this point. Forecast models have almost entirely dropped the signal for 95L. Why did forecast models suddenly drop it? It is likely that trade winds ended up being stronger than previously anticipated, and because of this 95L will not be able to maintain any thunderstorm activity and will probably remain a tropical wave. Now that being said, surprises can and have happened before so just continue to monitor the system as it moves west. Chances for development are lowering.

Looking into the future, more tropical waves will move off of Africa and there is a signal thats beginning to develop for the wave that will move off in a few days from now. Nothing from the NHC just yet but ill be watching it.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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  • 2 weeks later...

What i said on July 15th has generally remained true all the way until now, and will likely persist. Now with that being said, the overall pattern in the Atlantic looks more conducive for *something*, particularly west of 60W IF we can get a coherent entity to take advantage of the environment. There are 2 tropical waves in the MDR that will be monitored, particularly the one around 30W (just came off Africa). Some forecast models have perked up with it from time to time but again, nothing is guaranteed right now. We will need to wait and see how these waves evolve over the next week or so. On the other hand, a mid lat trough may break off and get shoved westward, and ironically enough could be in around the same spot as the tropical wave i mentioned around the same time. Do these two features merge and eventually develop? Do they hurt each other and cause it to be harder for something to consolidate? We will not know until about a week from now. Ensembles have been kind of confusing to tell apart for each entity.

For now, enjoy the quiet Atlantic, as it may not last much longer, especially as we get closer to the climatological ramp up of activity (August 15-20).

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Looking like next week we might see a monsoon trough breakdown in the MDR. It is yet to be seen what the outcome of this will be. Do we get 2 storms, 1 storm, or no storms? I guess we will find out next week.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Model signal is still scattered on this, lots of dry air out there should prevent anything significant from getting started at least. I expect that if we do get something out there going into this upcoming weekend, itll probably be weak and short lived. Cant rule out the possibility of one of these waves sneaking west and developing closer to home, but no major signal for that either right now.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Update for 8/16/23:

NHC is now monitoring multiple areas of development. Since i accidently hit post, i will do a separate post below to attempt at detailing each.

Edited by JLM

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Area #1 is currently located almost midway between the Islands and Africa. Forecast models seem to be becoming more in agreement at this becoming a tropical depression within the next 3-5 days or so. This is the middle piece in part of a monsoon trough breakdown, which is a rather complex situation to try to explain. A monsoon trough (MT) is a long strip of vorticity, in this case stretching from Africa to about 40W. As vorticity processes occur, this trough begins to break down into separate pieces of vorticity, which can become tropical cyclones if conditions are favorable. We are expecting to see this happen over the next 5 days or so, and as a result could see up to 2 tropical systems form out of this. The portion of the MT, that is Area #1, may develop into at least a tropical storm as it begins heading WNW towards the islands. As it does so, it may encounter a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), which causes shear over these systems and tears them apart. As this system approaches that, which is located north of the islands, the system should begin to weaken as it curves northward and out to sea. Development chances through 48 hours are at 30%, and chances through 7 days are at 50%.

Area #2 is on the eastern end of this MT breakdown, models are not quite as excited with this one intensity wise but do show some development. It is currently located south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and will also move WNW to NW. This one should be weaker, and given that its much further east, it will likely die out over the Atlantic and be a problem for shipping interests only. Development chances through 48 hours are at 30%, and chances through 7 days are at 40%.

Area #3 is currently located north of the Greater Antilles. It is a dry tropical wave that is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. With a stalled frontal boundary draped over the northern Gulf of Mexico, it should allow for thunderstorm activity to increase for this wave as it moves westward across the Gulf. The environment over the western Gulf looks quite favorable with low wind shear and plenty of moisture, as well as very high sea surface temperatures. IF a storm has developed by then, it could become something much bigger and stronger, but thats only if something has formed by then. Regardless of development, everyone across the coastal areas of Gulf states should see an increase in rain chances, and if it becomes something more, Texas and northeastern Mexico would likely see significant rainfall totals. This area needs rain, but if it all falls at once, that can cause major issues. It is something to monitor for sure as we go through the next 7 days. Development chances in the next 48 hours is at 0%, and chances through 7 days are currently at 20%.

I would also like to mention that the western portion of the MT breakdown is expected to move west across the Caribbean Sea, and could interact with a potential CAG (Central American Gyre), which is rare for August. Should this happen, it could produce results that nobody would want to see. Luckily this is beyond 7 days and plenty of things will change between now and then. For now, given that this is shown beyond 7 days in forecast models, the NHC does not have anything highlighted. I do expect however that if they do mark this feature, it will happen within the next 5-6 days. This is just something to watch for pattern recognition for now, and I will be monitoring it, but right now there are more important areas of interest that are actually existing currently and need to be monitored. This can and likely will be revisited in a later update.

Now for my routine reminder at the end of nearly every long update that its never a bad idea to gradually prepare ahead of time. By gradually preparing i mean buying an extra case of water at the store every week and putting it back in your stock, or buying an extra box of non perishable food items and putting that into your stock. Next update will probably be this upcoming weekend unless something changes drastically between now and then.

Screenshot 2023-08-16 174302.png

Edited by JLM
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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Its the weekend now and as promised, heres another update. Strap in, this may get lengthy. Theres now 5 areas being watched by the NHC currently, 3 of which are Invests. I will start with highest probabilities and go to the lowest. 

Disturbance 1 is Invest 98L, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is producing fairly minimal shower and thunderstorm activity right now. 98L currently has a high chance for development over the next 48 hours and 7 days (70%). 98L is not a threat to land.

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Next up is Disturbance 3 (Disturbance 2 will be next). This is Invest 90L, located over the southern Windwards. A low pressure system has formed with this, and it has been producing scattered deep convection. This convection has gradually become more organized since lastnight, and so therefore development chances has increased. 90L is expected to move WNW to NW across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Model guidance currently seeing that this will only move so far west before being pulled directly north, most models indicating that this moves over Hispaniola. As it stands right now, 90L should not be a threat to the US, but it will produce heavy rainfall over the Greater Antilles, which could result in flash flooding. A tropical depression or storm may form over the Caribbean early next week. Development chances are 40% through 48 hours and 60% through 7 days. (PS: This was the disturbance that had a chance to interact with a possible CAG event, but it is developing faster and therefore will turn north before having a chance to do so.)

two_atl_7d3.png.b2569a3224390110f06c09f0cab0fbfe.png

Next up is Disturbance 2, which is Invest 99L. 99L is currently located about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. It has a potent low level center and has been trying to fire convection around that center all day. Should it achieve this, it could briefly become a tropical depression before conditions become unfavorable for development. The window for this system is fairly short, only lasting about 2 days. 99L will not be a threat to land. Development chances through 48 hours is at 50%.

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Next up is Disturbance 4, which is currently located over the Bahamas. As it moves westward, it will help to enhance shower and storm activity for southern portions of the Florida Peninsula. As it moves west across the Gulf of Mexico, a broad area of low pressure may form and could become a tropical depression or storm before reaching the coast of Mexico or Texas. Regardless of whether this develops, it will help to produce some much needed rainfall for the region, and should be welcomed into the area. It has a 10% chance to develop over the next 48 hours and a 50% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

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Last but definitely least at the moment, is Disturbance 5. It is a tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa. It may experience some slow development as it moves generally WNW. This does not look to be a threat but that can change as we have seen in the past. As with anything in the Atlantic this time of year, it will be watched. Development chances through the next 7 days are at 20% currently. 

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Below is a basin-wide satellite image showing the locations of all the disturbances as of the time of this post:

Screenshot2023-08-19133302.thumb.png.23f1956989e4e4f3b92c5646cdcc9113.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Invest 99L has now become Tropical Depression 06L. It is not forecast to become a tropical storm. Just another number inflator.

204836_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.434fa5ba2899612b93b89af0ccae4a4e.png

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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NHC has designated Tropical Storm Emily this morning (formerly Invest 98L). Max winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 1001 mb. Emily is not expected to last long and will recurve. It is noted that conditions may be favorable for redevelopment in the subtropics later on down the road.

Tropical Depression Six (formerly Invest 99L) is remaining steady state in the face of shear and dry air. Six is not expected to last much longer. If by some off chance it becomes a named storm before dissipating, the next name is Franklin.

Invest 90L is very close to becoming a tropical depression or storm, and seems likely to become just that later today. Development chances are now up to 70% in 2 days and 80% in 7 days. 90L will likely produce a heavy rainfall and flooding threat for Hispaniola and potentially Puerto Rico as it gets tugged north in a couple days regardless of whether it develops. More updates to come with this one, as great uncertainty exists north of the islands. What can be semi confidently said right now is 90L will not be a threat to the US mainland, but whats uncertain is whether or not 90L may eventually become a hurricane over the SW Atlantic. Next names are Franklin or Gert.

The Gulf AOI is bubbling convection this morning over the Gulf. Any development would likely be slow to occur as this system is expected to traverse the Gulf quicker than usual due to strong high pressure over the central US. Regardless of development, much needed rainfall is to be expected across portion of Texas and northern Mexico.

The next AOI is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa which is up to a 50% chance of developing in the next 7 days. In my opinion, it is the best candidate to be the next hurricane of the season and/or first major hurricane, but thats getting ahead of the forecast here. Luckily, there is hardly any ridging to speak of over the Atlantic and these should recurve quickly. Next names are Franklin and Gert.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Tropical Storm Franklin has now formed in the Caribbean Sea (formerly Invest 90L)

Tropical Storm Watches are up for the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Franklin is expected to strengthen to a hurricane AFTER reaching the open waters of the SW Atlantic.

Here is the forecast track:

205640_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.d8b2a08a1bec927773d1a040ad4e3240.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Happy Tuesday! Over the past 24 hours or so, a lot of things have happened, so lets dig right in.

First, Tropical Storm Harold formed and made landfall in Texas this morning, bringing wind gusts of 60 mph, flash flooding, and tornadic activity to southern Texas earlier today. Harold is now a Tropical Depression well inland from the coast. Lets all just be glad this didnt have 24-48 more hours over water.

Tropical Depression Six become Tropical Storm Gert, very randomly. It has since dissipated earlier today.

Tropical Storm Emily died off, but has a decent chance now to redevelop in the Subtropics. It has a 50% chance of doing so. This will continue to be a threat to nobody.

Invest 92L, which in the update on Sunday was the AOI off the coast of Africa, had a high chance of development. However, given that Franklin is expected to impart strong wind shear over the system as it continue its trek WNW to NW into drier air, its development chances have lowered now. This will be a threat to nobody but shipping interests. It now has a 40% chance of developing in the next 7 days.

Tropical Storm Franklin is the only one which hasnt had a major change since the last update. Franklin has actually weakened a bit today, and understandably so. Shear is causing all thunderstorm activity to be pushed to the eastern side, so as this happens, the vortex becomes misaligned. A vertically stacked system is a key factor to get a strengthening tropical cyclone. A tropical cyclone has 2 centers, one at the low levels and one at the mid levels. The low level center (LLC) is what is tracked by the NHC. The mid level center (MLC) is the host for all the thunderstorm activity. In Franklin's case, the MLC is being pushed off towards the southeast or east while the LLC remains on the west side of the thunderstorm activity associated with the MLC, creating for a very misaligned system. It has made attempts at becoming better aligned but has failed each time. Center relocations are likely to occur, so be on the lookout for that. Dont be surprised if center of storm jumps around down there.

Regardless of Franklin's health, Hispaniola will also help to shred it even more, likely disrupting any LLC Franklin has at the point of landfall, wherever that may be. Franklin should not spend too long over the island, and should start to slowly redevelop north of the Caribbean. The shear that the storm is facing now will continue to be an issue for it even after crossing Hispaniola, and will likely keep a cap on Franklin's intensity over the next 3 days or so. After that time, the redeveloped system should begin to turn towards the north or north northwest, which is when it will get into a much more favorable shear environment. This could allow for decent organization or intensification, or both. There is a chance Franklin becomes a hurricane right about this time. Where it tracks over the western Atlantic is still a big ?, as it will depend on how far east it goes before making that turn. Interests in Bermuda should be following the progress of Franklin over the coming days and it wouldnt hurt to review your hurricane plans.

In the near term for Franklin, heavy rainfall will occur in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico regardless of what state the storm is in. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the main threat for whatever comes through, particularly in Hispaniola. Some gusty winds up to tropical storm force is expected as Franklin gets pulled over the island. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Dominican Republic and portions of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for the Turks and Caicos islands.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Todays update is going to be centered around 93L only. 93L, currently located in the far NW Caribbean Sea, has a 90% chance to develop in the next week, and has a 70% chance to develop in the next 2 days.

Looking at satellite, 93L looks pretty healthy right now, as it now has a closed area of low pressure, with curved banding features wrapping into this low. 93L could be classified as a Tropical Depression at any time now.

c48bd409-5977-4715-af0d-f102fe6edbae.thumb.jpg.14c8710292fd3e89695fbba62c3347df.jpg

93L's future track is very uncertain, as it could realistically track anywhere from Tampa to Pensacola. Looking at various model guidance, Hurricane Franklin is going to play a major role in determining where 93L's ultimate track will be. As Hurricane Franklin's track shifts towards the south and west on the forecast models, it kind of shifts the upper pattern westward as well given Franklins large anticyclone. This, along with 93L possibly developing well before models have shown, could allow us to narrow it down to the Big Bend/Panhandle, but this cant be done yet. 

If 93L manages to become a tropical storm before entering the Gulf of Mexico, all it would have to do is strengthen. At that time, it could erode any shear inducing mechanisms, and essentially create its own environment. We will have to watch for this possibility over the coming days.

As it stands right now, 93L is expected to be on the Florida Coast likely at some point on Wednesday, what kind of impacts it may bring is unknown. The possible intensities range anywhere from a weak and disorganized tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane. Thats what we have for now, and this could easily change once we get a developed system. For now, go ahead and resupply your kits and review your plans just in case you need to take action.

two_atl_7d1(1).png.8812464f289e928f7f5cef8a632e3fac.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Tropical Depression Ten (10L) has been designated in the Yucatan Channel. It is currently moving southwest at breakneck speeds of 2 mph (this is sarcasm), and will continue to meander in the far NW Caribbean Sea over the next 24-36 hours. At around that time mark in the forecast, a trough and strengthening ridge over the SW Atlantic will help to pull Ten out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The depression has been very well organized for a depression, with a small vorticity maximum present on radar (among a larger rotation), and curved banding wrapping into this feature. I expect this feature to become dominant if it stays over water during the next 24-36 hours, which has been the overall trend in model guidance today is that it stays over water. Theres a question for whether Ten moves south, then loops towards the east and northeast, and clipping western Cuba, or if it stalls out/barely moves and begins moving north from around where it is currently. These two scenarios will yield very different results. If the first scenario happens, it will have a further east launching point into the Gulf of Mexico, and would generally track closer to the Florida Peninsula. If the second scenario were to occur, it would have a further west launching point and could ultimately end up anywhere from about Mobile AL to the Big Bend region, but this is very dependent on strength.

The intensity for Ten is very uncertain, as it will depend on if it stays offshore over the next day or so. If it moves inland, its ceiling intensity can be lowered a good bit, as it would have to work to organize itself in the Gulf, and that would not allow for a ton of intensification (still not ruling out a minimal hurricane, however). If it remains over water, the system may already be a moderate tropical storm upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, and this could yield dangerous results. A strong hurricane in this case would certainly not be ruled out. 

Looking at its eventual track again, i mentioned an upper trough and a ridge earlier on in this post. These features are very important, as they will create a "lane" for the storm to track through. The trough will be situated over either Texas or Louisiana, depending on how far east this is will determine how far west Ten could track. If the trough is over Louisiana, this generally keeps anything from coming west of Panama City. At the same time, the ridge over the SW Atlantic will matter a lot, considering that if it is stronger and situated closer to or over the FL Peninsula, it would push the system further west, with an eastern bound being the Big Bend. A weaker ridge could allow tracks as realistically far south as the Fort Myers area. The storms strength will be tied to which track it takes, as a more east track would give less time over the jet fuel aka Gulf of Mexico, yet a more west track would allow for more time over the warm Gulf. Still generally looking at a stronger west/weaker east situation, but that doesnt mean it wont be impactful wherever it ends up (and still does not rule out a hurricane). Hurricane Franklin may have an impact on ridge placement, as a further west Franklin may cause the ridge to be nudged west as well. This is also something to watch.

Impacts cannot be pinned down to any location currently, but everyone on the FL Gulf Coast should be preparing for a hurricane in the middle of next week. Impacts like storm surge, rainfall/flooding, tornadoes, and wind cannot be pinned down yet. These will become clearer as time progresses, so check up on the NHC site periodically over the coming days.

The official NHC track forecast is saying 80 mph in the eastern Gulf with landfall in the Big Bend of Florida, both track and intensity can and likely will change over the coming days, so continue to monitor the NHC for more information on that. Below is the NHC track forecast:

024528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.b14bdadef156c2b91eb3173dafb10b74.png

For current alerts, there is a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba, with a Tropical Storm Watch for the Isle of Youth. Watches for the Gulf Coast will likely arrive by Monday night and no later than that unless the storm slows down.

The forecast cone is great, but i would also like to post a product from Tomer Burg, which is a Super Ensemble, composed of ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC. As of the 12z runs (midday runs on 8/26/23), there is moderate confidence for a storm to track generally from Grayton Beach, FL to Spring Hill FL, and a low confidence from Pascagoula, MS to Bonita Beach, FL.

density_new.thumb.png.e853de9576a8d331b5fe32de89ebc9fd.png

Here is the wind speed probability graphic by the NHC (which is a great tool by the way), showing currently about a 30% chance for tropical storm force winds generally from Panama City to Fort Myers. There are higher probabilities offshore, and this will move inland as certainty increases, which will happen over time. Hurricane wind probabilities will remain low until it becomes a hurricane, so keep that in mind. Also, you can see Hurricane Franklin's probabilities on the right side of the map as well.

024528.png.63c2cae1ed25e9a6cfae862b811f3084.png

Switching gears now to Hurricane Franklin real quick, NHC is forecasting Franklin to become the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As it stands with the most recent forecast, they are expecting Franklin to top out at Category 4 intensity as it passes between the US East Coast and Bermuda. Bermuda is not out of the woods yet, as it may still bring tropical storm force winds to the island (about a 60% chance according to the above map). Tropical alerts may be needed for Bermuda in the coming days. Below is the NHC track forecast for Hurricane Franklin.

024920_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.2f7cbbf133fe825829091e4cb0243cb7.png

In Florida, prepare for a hurricane during the middle of next week. There is a tax free holiday for hurricane preparedness items lasting now through September 8th, so take advantage of that!! This storm couldnt have aligned with this tax holiday anymore perfectly lol

Here is a graphic showing what applies:

Screenshot2023-08-27002052.thumb.png.d0edd7b33c2d002a13c589e0e8c337fb.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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I'm in Gainesville FL and Idalia looks like it may kick out butt

"You can't see California without Marlon Brando's eyes"---SliPknot

 

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Gina, 

Please be careful and stay safe, hopefully goes further away from you. Being in Ft Myers, still not 100% going that far north, from past history. It does not look very pretty wherever it goes.

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Idalia update for 8/28/23:

Idalia is currently somewhere near the western tip of Cuba, due to airspace issues the RECON plane could not tell us exactly where the center was before having to head back to Florida. Current sustained winds are at 70 mph, with a pressure of 983 mb as of the 10 pm CDT advisory. 

The NHC is now forecasting Idalia to become a Category 3 hurricane before landfall in the Big Bend of Florida. Current forecast cone has anywhere from St Marks to Crystal River as the potential landfall area. Idalia will be a very large storm as it moves north across the Gulf, and so impacts will be felt over a large chunk of the Florida Peninsula. Im going to detail alerts below.

ALERTS:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Apalachicola to Englewood and all points in between, including Tampa Bay. 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Englewood to Chokoloskee and all points in between, including Charlotte Harbor on the Florida Coast. Areas from the Florida/Georgia line north to the South Santee River in South Carolina and all points in between including Charleston, SC.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, Citrus, Levy, western Marion, western Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist, Taylor, Lafayette, Suwannee, Hamilton, Columbia, Madison, Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, and Coastal Franklin Counties in Florida. Also includes Echols, Lowndes, Brooks, and Lanier Counties in Georgia. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dry Tortugas (Lower Monroe), Coastal Collier, Lee, Charlotte, Sarasota, Hardee, Desoto, Polk, Osceola, Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Lake, Volusia, eastern Marion, Flagler, Putnam, St John, eastern Alachua, Union, Bradford, Clay, Baker, Duval, Nassau, Leon, Inland Wakulla, Inland Franklin, Liberty, Gulf, and Gadsden Counties in Florida. Also includes Grady, Thomas, Clinch, southern Ware, Charlton, Camden, and Glynn Counties in Georgia. 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lower Monroe and Inland Collier Counties in Florida. Also includes Colquitt, Cook, Berrien, Atkinson, Coffee, Jeff Davis, northern Ware, Appling, Bacon, Pierce, Wayne, Brantley, Tattnall, Long, Mcintosh, Liberty, Bryan, Evans, Bulloch, Effingham, and Chatham Counties in Georgia. Also includes Jasper, Beaufort, Coastal Colleton, Charleston, and Berkeley Counties in South Carolina.

STORM SURGE:
All values below are expected surge above normally dry ground.

On the Gulf side:
- 1-2 ft expected for the Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas.
- 1-3 ft expected from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee
- 2-4 ft expected from Chokoloskee to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor
- 3-5 ft expected from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
- 4-7 ft expected from the Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
- 6-9 ft expected from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka
- 8-12 ft expected from Chassahowitzka to Aucilla River
- 5-8 ft expected from Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River
- 3-5 ft expected from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
- 1-3 ft expected from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

On the Atlantic side:
- 1-3 ft expected from the Volusia/Flagler County line to Florida/Georgia line
- 2-4 ft expected from the Florida/Georgia line to the South Santee River

EVACUATIONS:
Baker County - Voluntary (no other info listed)
Citrus County - Mandatory Zone A, Voluntary for those in structures that cannot withstand Category 3 winds
Dixie County - Mandatory (no other info listed)
Franklin County - Voluntary for all low lying areas and barrier islands
Gilchrist County - Voluntary (no other info listed)
Gulf County - Mandatory for Indian Pass and low lying areas, and for recreational vehicles along the coast
Hernando County - Voluntary for Zones A, B, and C, including manufactured homes county wide
Hillsborough County - Mandatory for Zone A, mandatory for manufactured homes and low lying areas.
Jefferson County - Voluntary for low lying areas and mobile homes
Lafayette County - Mandatory for all manufactured homes county wide
Levy County - Mandatory for recreational vehicles, manufactured homes, low lying and coastal areas.
Madison County - Voluntary (no other info listed)
Manatee County - Mandatory Level A including mobile home parks, Voluntary Level B
Marion County - Any manufactured homes, RVs, or substandard housing west of I-75
Pasco County - Mandatory Zone A and manufactured homes, Voluntary Zones B and C and special needs
Pinellas County - Mandatory Zone A and manufactured homes
Suwannee County - Mandatory (no other info listed)
Taylor County - Mandatory for coastal areas and manufactured homes, RVs, and substandard housing
Union County - Voluntary for manufactured homes and substandard housing, low lying areas
Volusia County - Voluntary for manufactured homes, RVs, and substandard housing, low lying areas
Wakulla County - Voluntary (no other info listed)
Sarasota County - (Voluntary, Mandatory?) Evacuation of Level A, mobile and manufactured homes.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

I bet it makes landfall further south than expected.  South of Tampa maybe. 

could be that it does hit tampa or south of it, though that is outside all the current models.  The different models appear very consistent, but its the weather and predicting these events is a crapshoot.  And the big wind side is closer to shore so even if the eye is north of tampa a bit, the wind will be further reaching.

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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Thinking about everyone in Idalia’s path.
 

If you are not evacuating, please check in on PT after the worst of the storm to let us know you are OK!

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Cindy Adair

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21 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I bet it makes landfall further south than expected.  South of Tampa maybe. 

I was wrong

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Brevard County, Fl

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Dawn is approaching here and power is still on. Winds and rain were minimal overnight but more rain on the way now.  Surge seems lower than expected as well, possibly a far luckier outcome than expected but i sure hope everyone left that should have.

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Hurricane Idalia has made landfall near Keaton Beach, FL (Taylor County) as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph as of 7:45 AM EDT.

Multiple Extreme Wind Warnings are in place for areas in orange in the below image. Extreme Wind Warnings are issued when winds are expected to reach or exceed 115 mph.
Screenshot2023-08-30072955.png.34c228092935569e4c5fcaef7b5ebfa7.png

Idalia will continue inland and will cross southern Georgia today, hurricane warnings stretch from the FL/GA line to the GA/SC line this morning, as Idalia is expected to remain a hurricane as it cross the state. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the rest of the GA, SC, and NC coastlines.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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I don’t know why I still watch the weather channel.  I think it’s just a carry over from decades ago, when networks like CNN and The Weather Channel were actual news stations, and not reality TV politically biased nonsense.   Last night they were describing the storm as “unprecedented in history” and “unsurvivable”.  

I do wish everybody good luck though, no doubt many people will be dealing with a bunch of flooding and damage from a Cat 3.  Again, those older structures built before the strict hurricane building codes were instituted in Florida, will suffer a lot of damage.   

Lol!….  They just cut away to commercial, while I was typing this, as some guy just paddled by in a recreational kayak, flexing, while they were describing the end of days conditions.   You can’t make this stuff up…. 

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Dixie County is getting hammered. Here in Alachua we have had trees down, had to go out and cut one up off the driveway so we could get out in case of an emergency. The winds here in NW Gainesville area are gusting to about 50 mph, and there are significant power outages in town. All in all, we are doing pretty well.. Cedar Key is under water, so is Steinhatchee.

Edited by metalfan

"You can't see California without Marlon Brando's eyes"---SliPknot

 

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3 minutes ago, metalfan said:

Dixie County is getting hammered. Here in Alachua we have had trees down, had to go out and cut one up off the driveway so we could get out in case of an emergency. The winds here in NW Gainesville area are gusting to about 50 mph, and there are significant power outages in town. All in all, we are doing pretty well.. Cedar Key is under water, so is Steinhatchee.

I’m not totally against the push down here to plant more hardwood trees and less palms, but during the hurricanes, you see a big difference in performance.  Live oaks are considered very storm hardy and wind tolerant, but those giant branches break in hurricanes, taking out power lines and roofs, while most common palms do much better under these conditions.  

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28 minutes ago, Looking Glass said:

I don’t know why I still watch the weather channel.  I think it’s just a carry over from decades ago, when networks like CNN and The Weather Channel were actual news stations, and not reality TV politically biased nonsense.   Last night they were describing the storm as “unprecedented in history” and “unsurvivable”.  

I do wish everybody good luck though, no doubt many people will be dealing with a bunch of flooding and damage from a Cat 3.  Again, those older structures built before the strict hurricane building codes were instituted in Florida, will suffer a lot of damage.   

Lol!….  They just cut away to commercial, while I was typing this, as some guy just paddled by in a recreational kayak, flexing, while they were describing the end of days conditions.   You can’t make this stuff up…. 

I think it was unprecedented "for the big bend area of florida" for a major hurricane(cat 3) to come ashore there.  It appeared to be sensationalism in news/entertainment perhaps mixed with some true concern for an area that has never suffered a big hit.  Like is often the case in the media, the qualifier for "unprecedented"(in the big bend) was left off.  Its shoddy journalism for the best ratings chasing at the worse.  This is the way of modern journalism, they don't need qualifiers or sources to chase ratings.  So much journalistic garbage on the internet, not surprised it has completely contaminated the broadcasting companies as well.  I feel for the people who were/are impacted.  Journalsts have become tainted by the big bucks of ratings, its hard to trust news these days.  

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Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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4 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

You guys are finally getting some rain on the west coast though!

Yep it has rained on and off through the night accumulations say 2.6", its nice.  Last notable rain was august 18 for 1.1 inches.  Looks like my chamby may finally open up a new leaf this week.  Its been holding so tight a second spear is approaching its height.  The heat has not subsided as I had hoped, it was 81F at 8am, just too much heat coming off the gulf I suppose.  My palms are growing faster in the heat as I have watered through the drought 3-4 days a week.  

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Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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23 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

I’m not totally against the push down here to plant more hardwood trees and less palms, but during the hurricanes, you see a big difference in performance.  Live oaks are considered very storm hardy and wind tolerant, but those giant branches break in hurricanes, taking out power lines and roofs, while most common palms do much better under these conditions.  

I would take palm trees any day over the trees we have. We live in an ecosystem called Hardwood Hammock. The trees here are mainly old growth (for Florida) oaks, very huge pines over 100 ft in many cases that have a tendency to snap in half in really high wind, Hickory, Sweetgum, Elm and I don't know all the others. The trees on our property were here when the house was built in the 1980's, (so always been here, never cut or altered except right up around the house). I live on basically 5 acres of trees, and so do my 4 neighbors. And its scary as hell in a storm. We moved to this house from a house in town in 2002. In 2004, Hurricanes Frances and Jean either toppled or broke about 50 trees on our land alone. It cost us over $5000 to clean up the trees just from the front of the property so that we could use the driveway and road. Hurricane Irma dropped 2 huge hickory trees on my house. It was a twist of fate, but the tree service dropped one of the trees back onto the house when they were removing it. If they hadn't, miraculously, there would have only been about $500 of shingle damage because of the way the trees fell. But them dropping the tree meant over $8000 in damage, which their liability insurance had to cover. Last year Ian dropped about 5 trees, one of which fell on and damaged my greenhouse. Yesterday with Idalia we had one tree fall, across the driveway. It was large enough that our chainsaw struggled with it, we are going to have to have a tree service come to remove the rest of it. I would take palm trees ANY DAY over hardwoods. Palms are equipped to withstand the storms, regular trees are not.

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"You can't see California without Marlon Brando's eyes"---SliPknot

 

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14 minutes ago, metalfan said:

I would take palm trees any day over the trees we have. We live in an ecosystem called Hardwood Hammock. The trees here are mainly old growth (for Florida) oaks, very huge pines over 100 ft in many cases that have a tendency to snap in half in really high wind, Hickory, Sweetgum, Elm and I don't know all the others. The trees on our property were here when the house was built in the 1980's, (so always been here, never cut or altered except right up around the house). I live on basically 5 acres of trees, and so do my 4 neighbors. And its scary as hell in a storm. We moved to this house from a house in town in 2002. In 2004, Hurricanes Frances and Jean either toppled or broke about 50 trees on our land alone. It cost us over $5000 to clean up the trees just from the front of the property so that we could use the driveway and road. Hurricane Irma dropped 2 huge hickory trees on my house. It was a twist of fate, but the tree service dropped one of the trees back onto the house when they were removing it. If they hadn't, miraculously, there would have only been about $500 of shingle damage because of the way the trees fell. But them dropping the tree meant over $8000 in damage, which their liability insurance had to cover. Last year Ian dropped about 5 trees, one of which fell on and damaged my greenhouse. Yesterday with Idalia we had one tree fall, across the driveway. It was large enough that our chainsaw struggled with it, we are going to have to have a tree service come to remove the rest of it. I would take palm trees ANY DAY over hardwoods. Palms are equipped to withstand the storms, regular trees are not.

I totally agree with @metalfan. Hurricanes Irma and Ian together probably cost us $10k-11k damage to our yard (almost none to the house except the lanai). Of all the tall vegetation that was destroyed I estimate 90% of it was hardwood trees, including Eucalyptis spp, snake wood, mahoe, silk floss and similar and more. I lost very few palms and many of those were taken down by falling hardwood trees. The dense plantings of palms helped shield our house from cat 4/5 wind gusts. My Sabal Row stood firm on the east side of the house. When Idalia passed by the other day, our remaining royal poinciana dropped a large branch and that was the most damage we suffered. I’ve wanted to take that menace down since Irma trashed it in 2017 and Ian followed suit in 2022 but my husband refuses to part with it because of the pretty red flowers. But at least we’re done with rainbow eucalyptus after Ian. That menace has no place in any yard subject to major tropical storms.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Meg several years ago LariAnn Garner (the aroid hybridizer in So FL) posted the same thing about Rainbow Eucalyptus. I can't remember which storm it was but two fell on their house and did a lot of damage. Since they aren't a hardy tree here I have never had one. I'm going to have to call a frigging tree service to clear up the one that fell on the driveway during Idalia. Its about 60 ft tall, and too large a diameter for our home chainsaw. We managed to cut enough out to get through with cars, but we can't clean it up. More $$$ due to damn hardwood trees

"You can't see California without Marlon Brando's eyes"---SliPknot

 

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