Opinions, And Analysis On Next Week's North American Cold Blast

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

8 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

Another problem is how stressful it becomes to be going out in the cold and wind to 'cover' plants and rip out the ones you want to save. I have a lot of bananas and when they die, the trash that I have to take out is immense. The predictions change by the minute and go lower and lower which can be nerve racking and cause a lot of anxiety. I belong to a local gardening group in Houston and everyone is freaking out. Even my friends who are traveling are asking me to go water their plants they brought in. The temperatures now in Houston are predicted to go as low as the Feb 2021 freeze, about 16 degrees. The city is not prepared for these temperatures and yes like others have said before, the warm weather is causing these blasts to come further south. We had a very warm first of December. Went up to 80 degrees which was crazy. This is probably going to happen every year or every other year. If people want to waste money buying all these tropicals, then that's on them. I do it because I love the look and it is the only way I feel sane in the summer heat. People en masses will probably not do this anymore. I'm tempted to move to Mexico or Central America at this point.

I want to move south too.  I ABSOLUTELY HATE COLD WEATHER, AND TO ME ANYTHING BELOW 50F IS WAY TOO COLD FOR ME!!!

John

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

7 hours ago, WisTex said:

P.S.  Can you tell I am NOT very impressed with the owners/managers of local nurseries, LOL!!!???

 

Me too. 

And James Gill, the owner of Gill's Nursery and Landscaping, is a well "respected" member of the community, despite being a VERY ARROGANT MORON when it comes to palms and other tropical plants in a climate that can normally support such plants.  I have met the guy, and honestly, I wouldn't give a Rat's Ass for that guy!!!  Just goes to show you, that it is often NOT intelligence, integrity, quality, and hard work that equals success in business in the U.S., but just being nothing more than part of the "Good "Ole Boy and Good 'Ole Gal" System, like him!!!  At least in the nursery/landscaping business, there are a LOT of very knowledgeable people with lots of experience, who have nothing, or a really struggling, whereas, there are a LOT of absolute idiot, arrogant, morons who have successful businesses, just because of who they know!!!  A terrible shame for the worked to death slave "employees" of them, and their defrauded, cheated unsuspecting customers!!!

John

[kinzyjr]

49 minutes ago, Xenon said:

From 26F to 24F to 21F to 18F to 15F...maybe it'll be 10F by tomorrow 🤣. The models have the Siberian Express making a beeline for the upper TX Gulf with freezing temperatures even way offshore. 

Looks like this freeze will erase all recovery of anything zone 9ish that managed to survive/resprout from Feb 2021 if not cause some casualties itself. 

Might be bad further east, but can't be any worse than this 😆. Central/south Houston is forecast for 17F despite a 1991-2020 average annual extreme minimum of ~28F. That's a -11F anomaly just two years after a -13F anomaly....zone 9B is now zone 8! Almost can't believe the numbers I'm seeing!!

Let's hope it moderates at least some.  As of now, similar to January 2022 with one advective night and one radiational night in the forecast.  NWS has 32F/35F for Friday and Saturday.  Weather.com has 33F/33F.  Over the years, Weather.com has had more accurate forecasts for my particular area.  I guess we'll see come the end of the week.

12 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

15 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I'll probably be a dissenting voice here but I would have no problem if a record breaking cold outbreak happened in peninsular Florida.  I think that would be a good indication on what is hardy long tern and what is not.  That way I know exactly what I can get away with and where. 

I agree. I hope we don’t have another once in a lifetime freeze like 1962, but I’ll take another 2010 or a 1980s freeze. Sooner or later it will happen so we might as well know where we really stand. I know my palms in Westchase are in trouble under that scenario, but I suspect the ones in Laurel will hold up. We’ll see.

One thing worth considering though is a record low doesn’t mean it won’t ever get colder so it’s plausible the 1962 lows eventually don’t hold. 😬

Currently, it doesn't look like one for the record books, but that could change. 

We know what happens at 18F-20F.  @Eric in Orlando has the pictures and the beginnings of the Cold Hardiness Master Data were from the freezes in the 50s/60s/80s, especially in the Orlando, Melbourne, and Daytona areas.  It should be noted that the Daytona observations came from the Dent Smith property across the Halifax River. 

Besides, the 1980s just about put barbers out of business, right along with palm horticulturists.  No need to relive that either

[Xerarch]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

From 26F to 24F to 21F to 18F to 15F...maybe it'll be 10F by tomorrow 🤣. The models have the Siberian Express making a beeline for the upper TX Gulf with freezing temperatures even way offshore. 

Looks like this freeze will erase all recovery of anything zone 9ish that managed to survive/resprout from Feb 2021 if not cause some casualties itself. 

Might be bad further east, but can't be any worse than this 😆. Central/south Houston is forecast for 17F despite a 1991-2020 average annual extreme minimum of ~28F. That's a -11F anomaly just two years after a -13F anomaly....zone 9B is now zone 8! Almost can't believe the numbers I'm seeing!!

 

Dude that is terrible! Your 2022 will turn out worse than my 2021 if that forecast holds. For now the forecast for my area is to bottom out at 28 (CC NAS) I will count myself lucky if that holds, the biggest reason that would be bad is just because nearly all of my stuff was planted within the last year. I wish you, and all of us, the best 

[Jimbean]

14 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Let's hope it moderates at least some.  As of now, similar to January 2022 with one advective night and one radiational night in the forecast.  NWS has 32F/35F for Friday and Saturday.  Weather.com has 33F/33F.  Over the years, Weather.com has had more accurate forecasts for my particular area.  I guess we'll see come the end of the week.

Currently, it doesn't look like one for the record books, but that could change. 

We know what happens at 18F-20F.  @Eric in Orlando has the pictures and the beginnings of the Cold Hardiness Master Data were from the freezes in the 50s/60s/80s, especially in the Orlando, Melbourne, and Daytona areas.  It should be noted that the Daytona observations came from the Dent Smith property across the Halifax River. 

Besides, the 1980s just about put barbers out of business, right along with palm horticulturists.  No need to relive that either

Yeah like I said, it looks like an average annual cold event for Florida. 

One of these days I'd like to see Florida get nuked by a freeze all the way down to Marathon Key. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Jimbean

[__nevii]

20 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Funny you said that about the desert moving east.  I read somewhere a while back that with Man Made Climate Change, the western U.S. desert IS indeed moving eastward, upwards of 100 miles per decade is what I read!!!  And that would probably help to explain the more intense and more frequent BAD ARCTIC outbreaks in Texas, as the humidity lessens in the wintertime due to the eastward advancing desert, and thus the dew points dropping with lack of moisture in the air, this would exacerbate the BAD ARCTIC fronts making them WORSE than they otherwise would be if we still had more humidity in the air.  Lower dew points means lower overall temps!!!

John

Coconut, I am not sure about "desert moving east." But you are absolutely correct about the dryness of the air being a factor regarding the potential of cold: in the case of this cold snap, the dryness would be due to the Arctic/Siberian continental origin of the air, the low dewpoints increase the risk for lower temperatures.

Also, for Texas/nearby states in particular, I believe the Rockies actually make the cold pushes much worse. Apart from effects regarding jetstream tendencies, the barrier prevents the cold high pressure from completing circulation to the west: that means that when the cold air pools (too dense to rise across the mountains), it has no choice but to "rocket" southwards: look at the models to see what I mean, how fast the front pushes down Texas while also spreading eastward.

The process above with mountains continues all the way down Mexico thanks to the Sierra Oriental mountains. This is why these cold pushes in Texas can bring effects all the way down to Tampico.

Fortunately, the cold in this case is associated with a system that will be moving across the United States. The trough axis therefore will move east of Texas, so that allows some "spreading of wealth" compared to 2021, as well as drier (but very cold) weather that, hopefully, will be easier compared to similar temps but with snow and ice.

Otherwise, wish you the best of luck 🥰

[__nevii]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

From 26F to 24F to 21F to 18F to 15F...maybe it'll be 10F by tomorrow 🤣. The models have the Siberian Express making a beeline for the upper TX Gulf with freezing temperatures even way offshore. 

Looks like this freeze will erase all recovery of anything zone 9ish that managed to survive/resprout from Feb 2021 if not cause some casualties itself. 

Might be bad further east, but can't be any worse than this 😆. Central/south Houston is forecast for 17F despite a 1991-2020 average annual extreme minimum of ~28F. That's a -11F anomaly just two years after a -13F anomaly....zone 9B is now zone 8! Almost can't believe the numbers I'm seeing!!

 

Seems like that one guy on that other forum was correct: North America is a "flawed geographical climate fail"

Really wish the best for you, @Xerarch, @Mr. Coconut Palm, and others across Texas and the other Southern states 🥰

Edited December 19, 2022 by __nevii

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

12 minutes ago, __nevii said:

Seems like that one guy on that other forum was correct: North America is a "flawed geographical climate fail"

Really wish the best for you, @Xerarch, @Mr. Coconut Palm, and others across Texas and the other Southern states 🥰

Thank you.  Me too, hoping for the best.

John

[RedRabbit]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Currently, it doesn't look like one for the record books, but that could change. 

Yep, this doesn’t look bad at all. I’m a little disappointed I’m out of town for the coldest nights of the year though. 😒

Plenty of winter left, but I’m not concerned about this cold front. 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

32 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Yep, this doesn’t look bad at all. I’m a little disappointed I’m out of town for the coldest nights of the year though. 😒

Plenty of winter left, but I’m not concerned about this cold front. 

Hmmm.  Must be nice to NOT be concerned about this cold front!!!  I wish I had that luxury!!!  It looks like the National Weather Service is saying Orlando will only be getting down to about 32F one morning, and Tampa, not even that cold.  Lucky Florida, as usual!!!

John

[RedRabbit]

24 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hmmm.  Must be nice to NOT be concerned about this cold front!!!  I wish I had that luxury!!!  It looks like the National Weather Service is saying Orlando will only be getting down to about 32F one morning, and Tampa, not even that cold.  Lucky Florida, as usual!!!

John

Come on over John, no need to stick it out in Texas and worry about the cold every year! Even spots in central Florida like Bradenton and St. Pete are a lot warmer than the RGV/SPI.

Edited December 19, 2022 by RedRabbit

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Come on over John, no need to stick it out in Texas and worry about the cold every year! Even spots in central Florida like Bradenton and St. Pete are a lot warmer than the RGV/SPI.

I wish I could!!!

 

[Merlyn]

At the moment the forecast for NW Orlando is 31F Friday and Saturday night, with only a high of 48 on Saturday and 50 on Sunday.  It's not expected to hit the 60s until Tuesday.  Of course, last January the forecast was only about 30F and it hit 24.4F in my backyard.  A few miles South and East of me there were white bird of paradise and philodendron selloum that were mostly untouched.  i think the killer is going to be the guaranteed frost 2 nights in a row. 

For reference, the 2009 freeze was recorded at Leu Gardens as:

• Jan. 1 68/47
• Jan. 2 58/39
• Jan. 3 47/36
• Jan. 4 52/33
• Jan. 5 47/35
• Jan. 6 50/31
• Jan. 7 61/30
• Jan. 8 59/38
• Jan. 9 41/31
• Jan. 10 45/29
• Jan. 11 53/30
• Jan. 12 58/32
• Jan. 13 63/36

This front doesn't currently look like it'll be as long as the 2009 one, hopefully it stays that way!

[Ivanos1982]

12 hours ago, __nevii said:

Coconut, I am not sure about "desert moving east." But you are absolutely correct about the dryness of the air being a factor regarding the potential of cold: in the case of this cold snap, the dryness would be due to the Arctic/Siberian continental origin of the air, the low dewpoints increase the risk for lower temperatures.

Also, for Texas/nearby states in particular, I believe the Rockies actually make the cold pushes much worse. Apart from effects regarding jetstream tendencies, the barrier prevents the cold high pressure from completing circulation to the west: that means that when the cold air pools (too dense to rise across the mountains), it has no choice but to "rocket" southwards: look at the models to see what I mean, how fast the front pushes down Texas while also spreading eastward.

The process above with mountains continues all the way down Mexico thanks to the Sierra Oriental mountains. This is why these cold pushes in Texas can bring effects all the way down to Tampico.

Fortunately, the cold in this case is associated with a system that will be moving across the United States. The trough axis therefore will move east of Texas, so that allows some "spreading of wealth" compared to 2021, as well as drier (but very cold) weather that, hopefully, will be easier compared to similar temps but with snow and ice.

Otherwise, wish you the best of luck 🥰

I have noticed that the high pressure systems have stayed for very long periods of time all summer long which is what caused the air to be so dry and thunderstorms so weak in Houston. We didn't really get any rain and that's why we had a drought. This system is going to last an entire weekend with freezing temperatures every night for four nights in a row... that happened a lot in El Paso which is where I'm originally from. Not really in Houston. That's why I said it feels like the desert because these scenarios of cold snaps and dry summers are typical of El Paso. It's like living there all over again. I have noticed that west of Houston, outside the city they have cleared a lot of forests to make way for crops. Daily they chop down thousands and thousands of trees. This has been happening quietly in the last decade. At this point this is all just my personal observations. I have tried talking to meteorologists but they give very simple answers like "Oh it is just typical atmospheric changes". So I don't know. From 2021 to now this doesn't feel like Houston. It feels like El Paso. The air is dry, it's cold, no rain etc. The first two weeks of Dec though def felt like Houston.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Ivanos1982

[WisTex]

1 hour ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I have noticed that west of Houston, outside the city they have cleared a lot of forests to make way for crops. Daily they chop down thousands and thousands of trees.

It would be more accurate to say to make way for houses.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

1 hour ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I have noticed that the high pressure systems have stayed for very long periods of time all summer long which is what caused the air to be so dry and thunderstorms so weak in Houston. We didn't really get any rain and that's why we had a drought. This system is going to last an entire weekend with freezing temperatures every night for four nights in a row... that happened a lot in El Paso which is where I'm originally from. Not really in Houston. That's why I said it feels like the desert because these scenarios of cold snaps and dry summers are typical of El Paso. It's like living there all over again. I have noticed that west of Houston, outside the city they have cleared a lot of forests to make way for crops. Daily they chop down thousands and thousands of trees. This has been happening quietly in the last decade. At this point this is all just my personal observations. I have tried talking to meteorologists but they give very simple answers like "Oh it is just typical atmospheric changes". So I don't know. From 2021 to now this doesn't feel like Houston. It feels like El Paso. The air is dry, it's cold, no rain etc. The first two weeks of Dec though def felt like Houston.

I think you hit on the reason that Brownsville saw it's all time record low of 12F in February of 1899.  I honestly think it IS because of all the clear cutting of 99% of the native subtropical palm forest along the Lower Rio Grande River to make way for farmland in the mid and late 1800's.  Doing this apparently lowered the rainfall in the region, probably by as much as 7 to 8 inches, thereby drastically changing the areas climate and turning it into a semi arid region that never was before, and significantly lowering the dew points, especially in wintertime with Arctic fronts heading southward, and thus allowing for much lower temps than would otherwise have been experienced there.  Had these native subtropical palm forests NOT been clear cut, I honestly believe Brownsville would never have experience any temp lower than 17F or 18F, putting it on par with the Tampa, Florida area.  Mankind has got to STOP Destroying Nature, and learn to LIVE IN HARMONY WITH NATURE, like the Native Americans did, if we are going to have any real future to speak of, and if we are going to even have a planet left to live on!!!

John

[WisTex]

Most weather forecasts for Corpus Christi airport (CRP) are for a low of 24F.  It is in an open plain surrounded by nothing.  The forecasts for the Flour Bluff/North Padre Island sections  of Corpus - about 20 miles southeast of the airport are for a low of 28.  Difference can be attributable to the Laguna Madre, adjacent to Flour Bluff on southwest, adjacent to North Padre on the northeast and the Gulf of Mexico, adjacent to North Padre on the southeast.  Current water temperature for the Gulf off of Corpus is in the mid-60s F.  

[Ivanos1982]

20 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I think you hit on the reason that Brownsville saw it's all time record low of 12F in February of 1899.  I honestly think it IS because of all the clear cutting of 99% of the native subtropical palm forest along the Lower Rio Grande River to make way for farmland in the mid and late 1800's.  Doing this apparently lowered the rainfall in the region, probably by as much as 7 to 8 inches, thereby drastically changing the areas climate and turning it into a semi arid region that never was before, and significantly lowering the dew points, especially in wintertime with Arctic fronts heading southward, and thus allowing for much lower temps than would otherwise have been experienced there.  Had these native subtropical palm forests NOT been clear cut, I honestly believe Brownsville would never have experience any temp lower than 17F or 18F, putting it on par with the Tampa, Florida area.  Mankind has got to STOP Destroying Nature, and learn to LIVE IN HARMONY WITH NATURE, like the Native Americans did, if we are going to have any real future to speak of, and if we are going to even have a planet left to live on!!!

John

trees and forests def keep the ground temperate, not sure how much that affects overall weather though. I agree we need to stop destroying nature. Unfortunately the demand for food is exponential and farmers keep expanding to areas where there is access to water which is where the forests usually are. My take is these events are going to start happening more often, not just cold fronts but dry spells, flooding, tornadoes and hurricanes. Coastal cities are already being affected. I'm thinking about how many farmers will be losing crops due to this cold front coming in, I'm sure many are prepared for it? I do know that many cattle owners and ranchers lost a lot of money in the summer with the drought.

[Ivanos1982]

The positive thing about this is even in places with very extreme weather like El Paso, you still have palmtrees. My mom has these giant filibustas on her backyard in El Paso and it gets way  below 15 there. They are so large she will have to remove them soon as when a leaf falls from there it's a darn cannon lol

[Can't think of username]

I have to say that this freeze being as advective as it is will is going to help the Florida places that are vulnerable to radiational cooling. South-Central Florida's Archbold Biological Station, despite having around the same/comparable winter month minima to places like San Antonio or Jacksonville due to radiation, is not forecast for a frost AT ALL this week, just 2 Celsius.

That's also true to an extent of Brooksville, it seems similar to Pensacola for minima due to radiation but is only forecast for -1 Celsius and could easily escape a frost if the forecast changes just a bit.

Definitely more than you can say for Texas. I, like @Xenon, am super scared of Houston's -7 Celsius - heck I'm super scared for just about every Texas Triange and Gulf Coast city.😱

Edited December 19, 2022 by Can't think of username

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

31 minutes ago, WisTex said:

Most weather forecasts for Corpus Christi airport (CRP) are for a low of 24F.  It is in an open plain surrounded by nothing.  The forecasts for the Flour Bluff/North Padre Island sections  of Corpus - about 20 miles southeast of the airport are for a low of 28.  Difference can be attributable to the Laguna Madre, adjacent to Flour Bluff on southwest, adjacent to North Padre on the northeast and the Gulf of Mexico, adjacent to North Padre on the southeast.  Current water temperature for the Gulf off of Corpus is in the mid-60s F.  

Just 4F or 5F warmer wouldn't be so bad, and my Coconut Palms and other tropical trees could probably come through it okay.

John

[Emman]

Augusta is forecast for 18 or 19F which is about the average mean minimum temp, the length of the cold is more worrisome, it will barely reach above freezing Saturday afternoon.

By New Years though it's forecasted highs in the mid 60s like nothing happened😄.

[Can't think of username]

2 hours ago, Emman said:

Augusta is forecast for 18 or 19F which is about the average mean minimum temp, the length of the cold is more worrisome, it will barely reach above freezing Saturday afternoon.

By New Years though it's forecasted highs in the mid 60s like nothing happened😄.

Yeah, I'm seeing the same advective effects that I mentioned for Augusta too, now that you mention it. The 8b to 9a-9b difference between Bush Field and Daniel Field and downtown, which mostly exists because of radiational cooling, is close to nonexistent in this freeze, they're getting those Bush Field lows you mention.

Hoping it will be less severe for Daniel Field and downtown, both in terms of duration and minimum temperature. But like you also said, there is that lovely New Year's warmup!😁

Edited December 20, 2022 by Can't think of username

[Steve the palmreader]

On 12/19/2022 at 1:56 PM, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I think you hit on the reason that Brownsville saw it's all time record low of 12F in February of 1899.  I honestly think it IS because of all the clear cutting of 99% of the native subtropical palm forest along the Lower Rio Grande River to make way for farmland in the mid and late 1800's.  Doing this apparently lowered the rainfall in the region, probably by as much as 7 to 8 inches, thereby drastically changing the areas climate and turning it into a semi arid region that never was before, and significantly lowering the dew points, especially in wintertime with Arctic fronts heading southward, and thus allowing for much lower temps than would otherwise have been experienced there.  Had these native subtropical palm forests NOT been clear cut, I honestly believe Brownsville would never have experience any temp lower than 17F or 18F, putting it on par with the Tampa, Florida area.  Mankind has got to STOP Destroying Nature, and learn to LIVE IN HARMONY WITH NATURE, like the Native Americans did, if we are going to have any real future to speak of, and if we are going to even have a planet left to live on!!!

John

I dont think cutting down trees had anything to do with the 1899 freeze , Florida also recorded all time record lows also Tallahassee had  2 below zero 

 

[JohnAndSancho]

Crap crap crap crap crap crap. 

Welp I guess I'm dragging the Queen inside and putting Dirty Sanchez in the kitchen. 

[GottmitAlex]

34 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Crap crap crap crap crap crap. 

Welp I guess I'm dragging the Queen inside and putting Dirty Sanchez in the kitchen. 

13, 16, 18 F??!?!!

Protect 'em!

 

 

[JohnAndSancho]

42 minutes ago, GottmitAlex said:

13, 16, 18 F??!?!!

Protect 'em!

 

 

Everybody is indoors now.  I'm glad my Washy has wheels under it, cuz he's freaking heavy.

[JohnAndSancho]

Dirty Sanchez and Queen Elizabeth were the last 2 living palms outdoors. B. Alfreidii and D. Lutescens were already on top of my old entertainment center.  I did leave some dead seedlings out there but they're already dead so no sense wasting space. What are they gonna do, die twice? 

 

Dirty Sanchez only stabbed me once so that's a victory. And the Queen fits better than anticipated. 

[__nevii]

Meh. I took a break for a while, but just now checked recent forecasts: it is all about the same as prior, more or less. If anything, some of the models warmed up slightly: I just checked the mesocale NAM (which is very good at handling these type of arctic airmasses) and I see nothing below very low 20s much of Houston now (with upper teens going farther inland). Much better than some of the prior forecast models that showed lower teens across the entire Gulf.

Anyway, even 18-19°F isn't all that big a deal, especially given the dry nature of this event without any precip. Biggest problem, as a poster mentioned above, is that the cold does have quite some duration: a full day barely getting above freezing, with chilliness continuing through the weekend ... definitely not the most ideal.

[__nevii]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:50 AM, Ivanos1982 said:

I have noticed that the high pressure systems have stayed for very long periods of time all summer long which is what caused the air to be so dry and thunderstorms so weak in Houston. We didn't really get any rain and that's why we had a drought. This system is going to last an entire weekend with freezing temperatures every night for four nights in a row... that happened a lot in El Paso which is where I'm originally from. Not really in Houston. That's why I said it feels like the desert because these scenarios of cold snaps and dry summers are typical of El Paso. It's like living there all over again. I have noticed that west of Houston, outside the city they have cleared a lot of forests to make way for crops. Daily they chop down thousands and thousands of trees. This has been happening quietly in the last decade. At this point this is all just my personal observations. I have tried talking to meteorologists but they give very simple answers like "Oh it is just typical atmospheric changes". So I don't know. From 2021 to now this doesn't feel like Houston. It feels like El Paso. The air is dry, it's cold, no rain etc. The first two weeks of Dec though def felt like Houston.

For sure, I definitely understand what you mean regarding an "overall" standpoint: the combination of a rather dry summer and this sharp cold spell certainly evokes more "high plains/desert-like" pattern functionally speaking. I just was explaining the distinct processes involved (i.e. cross-polar low-level cold from Siberia for this current outbreak versus upper-level subtropical ridge for summer dry-spells).

Those first two weeks of December were great compared to the coming freeze. Fortunately, temps are back up to the 70s by next week.

Edited December 22, 2022 by __nevii

[__nevii]

On 12/19/2022 at 1:06 AM, RedRabbit said:

Come on over John, no need to stick it out in Texas and worry about the cold every year! Even spots in central Florida like Bradenton and St. Pete are a lot warmer than the RGV/SPI.

Ye! 🌝 Let us all take our talents to South Beach!

[Sabal_Louisiana]

This stuff coming down looks brutal.

Denver's all time record low is -29F. it's -22F this Friday am.

The arctic front roared through Wichita and OKC with gusts over 50mph.

In the Dallas area it dropped from the mid 40s to the mid 20s in one hour.

[Jimbean]

1 hour ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

This stuff coming down looks brutal.

Denver's all time record low is -29F. it's -22F this Friday am.

The arctic front roared through Wichita and OKC with gusts over 50mph.

In the Dallas area it dropped from the mid 40s to the mid 20s in one hour.

That's some interesting stuff

[Ivanos1982]

So we hit 15 degrees in Houston this morning and it looks like we will not be going above freezing until Saturday mid day. Next week we have forecasts of about 77 degrees.... this is just crazy! We had 80 degrees in the beginning of Dec. Who knows if that warmth next week will trigger another cold front to sink down all the way to Brownsville again. I hope not. The damage we are having now is really bad. Even my covered plants are wilting. What are yalls thoughts on the probability of this to happen again this winter?

[kinzyjr]

Just now, Ivanos1982 said:

So we hit 15 degrees in Houston this morning and it looks like we will not be going above freezing until Saturday mid day. Next week we have forecasts of about 77 degrees.... this is just crazy! We had 80 degrees in the beginning of Dec. Who knows if that warmth next week will trigger another cold front to sink down all the way to Brownsville again. I hope not. The damage we are having now is really bad. Even my covered plants are wilting. What are yalls thoughts on the probability of this to happen again this winter?

Likely.  Once the road is paved it is easier to drive on, so to speak.

[__nevii]

12 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

So we hit 15 degrees in Houston this morning and it looks like we will not be going above freezing until Saturday mid day. Next week we have forecasts of about 77 degrees.... this is just crazy! We had 80 degrees in the beginning of Dec. Who knows if that warmth next week will trigger another cold front to sink down all the way to Brownsville again. I hope not. The damage we are having now is really bad. Even my covered plants are wilting. What are yalls thoughts on the probability of this to happen again this winter?

Probably not: this pattern of cross-polar cold was actually driven by a jet extension, which has moved on to the full phase wherein the entire country will be flooded with warmth ... more of the zonal "Pacific flooding" rather than amplified high pressure/ridging that gave us warmth earlier in December.

The next chance of cold will occur when the jet retracts ... and patterns from full extension typically favor cold in areas in the Eastern Seaboard/SE US versus Houston. This is as of now, a lot can change later.

[JohnAndSancho]

7 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

So we hit 15 degrees in Houston this morning and it looks like we will not be going above freezing until Saturday mid day. Next week we have forecasts of about 77 degrees.... this is just crazy! We had 80 degrees in the beginning of Dec. Who knows if that warmth next week will trigger another cold front to sink down all the way to Brownsville again. I hope not. The damage we are having now is really bad. Even my covered plants are wilting. What are yalls thoughts on the probability of this to happen again this winter?

Welcome to winter in SE TX. We don't do seasons here. 

[Ivanos1982]

22 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Welcome to winter in SE TX. We don't do seasons here. 

there seems to be no seasons anywhere south anymore

[JohnAndSancho]

1 minute ago, Ivanos1982 said:

there seems to be no seasons anywhere south anymore

And the cold snaps get colder, and the summers get hotter. I'm just grateful that this was just cold and wind and not that week and a half of snow and ice we had last year. Summer felt like we had 3 months of triple digits and no rain and the wind chill was like -9 when I went to work this morning. Oh and didn't we just get stupid flooding rain a few days ago too? 

 

The Dirty South gets all the extremes. 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On 12/21/2022 at 6:43 AM, Steve the palmreader said:

I dont think cutting down trees had anything to do with the 1899 freeze , Florida also recorded all time record lows also Tallahassee had  2 below zero 

 

But it DID drastically dry out the area, turning the area from a naturally semi moist area with rainfall of about 34"  or 35" per year, to a semi arid area of only about 25" to 26" per year, thus lowering humidity, and lowering dew points in winter during Arctic blasts, so therefore, I still think IT DID have a direct impact on the absolute lowest temps ever recorded in Brownsville, Texas of 12F.  Had most of the native subtropical palm forest still existed around Brownsville at the time of the HORRIBLE 1899 Freeze there, I honestly do not think temps would have dropped below 17F or 18F.

John