United States Severe Weather

[Ben OK]

5 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Hope @Ben OK and the other Oklahoma folk on the forum do alright.

We will see what the night has in store for us. It's hard to believe that we will really get the storms they are predicting. It was cloudy and cool all day here. Normally strong storms, and especially tornadoes, are preceded be some warm weather during the day. Stranger things have happened before though than cool weather followed by strong storms. 

We fixed some hail damage on our home less than a year ago though, so I am really hoping there isn't any large hail in my neck of the woods this time.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ben OK
Typo

[JLM]

21 minutes ago, Ben OK said:

We will see what the night has in store for us. It's hard to believe that we will really get the storms they are predicting. It was cloudy and cool all day here. Normally strong storms, and especially tornadoes, are preceded be some warm weather during the day. Stranger things have happened before though than cool weather followed by strong storms. 

We fixed some hail damage on our home less than a year ago though, so I am really hoping there isn't any large hail in my neck of the woods this time.

Severe thunderstorm warning for the OKC metro area, 70 mph wind gusts expected there. This thing should lose some steam as it gets closer to eastern OK, but damaging winds will still be an issue all the way into portions of Arkansas and Missouri. Definitely stay weather aware tonight and have a way to get warnings.

[Ben OK]

48 minutes ago, JLM said:

Severe thunderstorm warning for the OKC metro area, 70 mph wind gusts expected there. This thing should lose some steam as it gets closer to eastern OK, but damaging winds will still be an issue all the way into portions of Arkansas and Missouri. Definitely stay weather aware tonight and have a way to get warnings.

I appreciate your concern for us. We live in a rural area, so we don't hear any tornado sirens at our house. We do get alerts on our phones any time there is a tornado warning anywhere in our county though.

[JLM]

2 minutes ago, Ben OK said:

I appreciate your concern for us. We live in a rural area, so we don't hear any tornado sirens at our house. We do get alerts on our phones any time there is a tornado warning anywhere in our county though.

Seeing that a tornado damn near hit the National Weather Center, which houses both NWS Norman and the Storm Prediction Center. A tornado may have also struck the OKC metro area.

Some scary stuff happening in your state tonight, and i hope it winds down before it reaches your area.

[Ben OK]

We were fine in my area of the state last night. I heard the rain and wind last night. I checked out my property this morning and didn't have any damage. I feel bad for those who got it worse than us, but Cherokee county seems to have been spared anything too bad.

[JLM]

Ok heres a quick update tonight on the severe weather situation. So apparently the atmosphere decided to be itself today and line up ingredients for a tornado threat in portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. A Level 3 Enhanced Risk is in place there for tonight. Some tornadoes are possible with damaging winds and large hail.

Tomorrow (Thursday) could be significant, as we have a Moderate Risk zone across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Tornadoes (some strong), damaging straight line winds, and large hail. There is a risk for all hazards, all of which does have the potential to be significant (EF2+ tornadoes, 75 mph+ winds, 2"+ hail). Have a way to receive warnings tomorrow!!!

Day 3 (Friday) currently has a Slight Risk over a large area. The risk area may change some as we go through the next couple of days. Right now the hazards look to be damaging winds and some tornadoes, some hail cant be ruled out. Thursday will probably be more in the form of a squall line, but portions of GA should be watched for the possibility of pre frontal cells to develop, which would hold a higher tornado potential.

Combined Day 2 & 3 Outlooks:


Beyond Friday, there are currently no big signals for severe weather. We just gotta get through the rest of this week, then we can catch a break! Have MULTIPLE ways to receive warnings this week if you are in ANY risk zone!

Edited March 2, 2023 by JLM

[amh]

6 hours ago, JLM said:

Ok heres a quick update tonight on the severe weather situation. So apparently the atmosphere decided to be itself today and line up ingredients for a tornado threat in portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. A Level 3 Enhanced Risk is in place there for tonight. Some tornadoes are possible with damaging winds and large hail.

Tomorrow (Thursday) could be significant, as we have a Moderate Risk zone across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Tornadoes (some strong), damaging straight line winds, and large hail. There is a risk for all hazards, all of which does have the potential to be significant (EF2+ tornadoes, 75 mph+ winds, 2"+ hail). Have a way to receive warnings tomorrow!!!

Day 3 (Friday) currently has a Slight Risk over a large area. The risk area may change some as we go through the next couple of days. Right now the hazards look to be damaging winds and some tornadoes, some hail cant be ruled out. Thursday will probably be more in the form of a squall line, but portions of GA should be watched for the possibility of pre frontal cells to develop, which would hold a higher tornado potential.

Combined Day 2 & 3 Outlooks:


Beyond Friday, there are currently no big signals for severe weather. We just gotta get through the rest of this week, then we can catch a break! Have MULTIPLE ways to receive warnings this week if you are in ANY risk zone!

Golf ball sized hail this morning in the slight risk zone.

[JLM]

Our quiet period has ended, as we have a Slight Risk today across portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi. 



The hazards are relatively typical of a Slight Risk, and they will all be detailed below starting with the tornado threat.

The tornado threat is at Marginal Risk levels for today, isolated tornadoes cant be ruled out for areas in green. As the storms grow upscale into a line, the tornado threat drops off almost completely. 



The damaging wind threat is at Slight risk levels today. Scattered severe storms are possible containing severe winds gusts up to 60 mph, as storms move east they will build upscale into a squall line, which would then feature a higher wind risk. This higher wind risk exists in the areas in yellow.



The hail threat is probably the bigger story here, which is at Slight risk levels today. Although, we do have the SIG outline for portions of the risk area, which means hail of 2" or greater diameter is possible. Throughout the risk area, and especially in the yellow area, scattered storms may produce severe hail of quarter size, and in the black hatched area hail of up to 2" or greater is possible. As the storms become more linear with eastward extent, the hail threat lowers.



Onto Day 2, which features a larger Slight risk zone across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Tomorrows risk looks more substantial and may have slightly more potential. Day 2 will start off with the line of storms from Day 1, which will pose a low end risk for damaging winds across northern MS and AL. As the line drifts south and east, it should die out. A surface low forms and causes an increase in favorability for severe storms, and storms should begin across portions of Mississippi and Alabama as supercells. With eastward extent, storms should grow upscale into a squall line which will pose a damaging wind, tornado, and hail risk.



The tornado threat is more elevated, and depending on how things go tomorrow with observations, a slightly higher tornado threat may materialize. However, this potential for a higher tornado threat is very conditional. The tornado threat for tomorrow is at Slight risk levels. 



The wind threat tomorrow is at slight risk levels. If a squall line can materialize further west where the better instability will be, a slightly higher threat may come to fruition. Much like the tornado threat, this is very conditional. The wind threat will continue as a line of storms moves east southeast across Georgia and Florida. Further west across MS, AL, and NW FL, supercells will be capable of all hazards, especially damaging winds and hail.



The hail threat for tomorrow is at slight risk levels. Like Day 1, there is a potential for SIG hail (2"+ diameter). This more significant hail threat is confined to where the better overlap of instability and lapse rates will be, which is over southern MS, AL, and NW FL. As storms grow upscale with eastward extent, the significant hail threat lowers but the overall hail threat remains.



Day 3 features a Marginal risk across portions of Florida. I havent read much into it, but forcing will probably put a limit on severe potential, hence the low end risk. Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible for areas in green on Monday. Regardless of whether severe storms happen or not, im sure the rainfall will be greatly appreciated down there.



Have multiple ways to get alerts if you live in any of the risk areas, and remember that clocks spring forward tonight!

[JLM]

I forgot to mention the Marginal risk out over California today. There is a a low end risk for all hazards including damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail.

[JLM]

A potentially significant severe weather outbreak may occur tomorrow across the south. While there are several fail modes to this event, the ceiling is quite high. There is a Moderate Risk (4/5) for portions of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. An Enhanced Risk (3/5) for portions of Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama. A Slight Risk (2/5) for portions of Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama. Lastly, a Marginal Risk (1/5) for portions of Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida.

Here is the Categorical Outlook:


The Tornado threat is the reason for the Moderate Risk zone. The SPC has outlined portions of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas in a 15% chance contour. Just as a reminder, the 15% zone means theres a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. Or, theres a 15% greater chance of seeing a tornado tomorrow than you would on any other regular day. With the expected conditions tomorrow, it would not take much to get a significant tornado outbreak. The black hatched zone indicates where there is a 10% chance of Significant tornadoes (EF2+). This SIG zone takes up the 15% and most of the 10% zones, with the 15% being red and the 10% being yellow. Surrounding this, there is a 5% outline which takes up a very large portion of the Slight Risk zone on the above map, which is colored brown below. The 2% zone covers most of the Marginal Risk zone, which is green on both maps.

Day 2 Tornado Outlook:


The Wind threat is also significant tomorrow, overall being higher than the tornado threat. The 30% wind risk zone, which is red, takes up most of the Enhanced Risk zone. The black hatched area represents a 10% chance for significant severe wind of 75 mph or greater. This is outlined over the northern portion of the risk area, where the conditions are more allowing for a straight line wind threat.

Day 2 Wind Outlook:


The Hail threat is much lower, at Slight Risk levels. Large hail is possible, especially over the yellow zone in the below map. Areas in brown have a low end hail threat. 

Day 2 Hail Outlook:


A potentially significant outbreak of severe storms is possible tomorrow, and everyone in each risk category has a threat for severe storms tomorrow. In the end, Mother Nature does not follow risk boundaries. Have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts tomorrow in ALL risk zones!!

[JLM]

The Moderate risk zone was shifted northward overnight, and now includes portions of the Memphis, TN metro. There is still a good deal of uncertainty this morning, as models are still split on how bad this event can get. Some models are showing that supercells dont develop quite as much in NE Louisiana and N Mississippi, and subsequently there wouldnt be as great of a tornado risk. This does not mean that the risk will be lower though. The upper end solutions are showing numerous supercells in the warm sector and subsequently, a higher tornado risk. Now this upper end solution, the conditions would be right for strong to intense tornadoes. SPC has mentioned that mesoscale (smaller) features will determine where the highest tornado potential is today.

Please take this event very seriously today.

Edited March 24, 2023 by JLM

[JLM]

A series of tornadoes struck Mississippi yesterday. Some towns that were directly hit by these tornadoes were Rolling Fork, MS, Silver City, MS, Winona, MS, and Amory, MS.

So far it appears the worst of the damage happened in Rolling Fork and Amory, but regardless all the towns listed were hit pretty badly. A total of 23 deaths have been confirmed so far, with 4 missing and dozens injured. Im not sure how these numbers are divided out between each location.

Below are some views of the damage that has occurred, just to put some perspective on the magnitude of this.

Rolling Fork, MS:

Silver City, MS:

Amory, MS:

I could not find much for Winona, but there are some damage reports around that area.

[JLM]

An update from NWS Jackson, Mississippi: 
*All ratings are Preliminary*
Rolling Fork/Silver City Tornado: EF-4
Blackhawk/Winona Tornado: EF-3
NWS Memphis, Tennessee is expected to have their preliminary rating for the Amory Tornado sometime tomorrow.

So far 25 deaths have been confirmed as of earlier this afternoon by the Mississippi EMA. They also said that the 4 missing people have been found.

Now, an update on the severe weather potential for tonight and tomorrow, and later into the week.

Tonight there is a Slight Risk across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. A Marginal Risk is in place for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. The main threats tonight are hail and damaging winds. As time progresses, the hail threat will increase as well as the potential hail size. An isolated tornado is also possible.

Categorical Outlook for tonight:


Tornado Threat tonight:


Wind Threat tonight:


Hail Threat tonight:


Now looking at the severe outlook for tomorrow, we have gone up to an Enhanced Risk, which at the moment is hail driven. Although, based on recent model trends we may see some changes to the outlook tonight. This could be a rather sneaky tornado setup, and we could see tornado probabilities rise overnight in the severe outlook. We will see what happens. Regardless, large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes are all possible tomorrow across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado is possible across portions Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Categorical Risk:


Tornado Threat:


Wind Threat:


Hail Threat:


Now looking ahead to Thursday, there is a Slight Risk across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Any details will be ironed out in a few days. For now, lets just keep an eye on it, but keep a closer eye on tonight and tomorrow.

Categorical Risk:

[SeanK]

I lived near Greenville for awhile and traveled US82 back to Tuscaloosa many times (ROLL TIDE!).  Never saw a tornado arrive in the daytime. 

[JLM]

Today's outlook has uptrended significantly. We are now at a Moderate Risk for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The tornado threat has increased tremendously, and the hail and wind threat has also increased.

Todays Categorical Outlook:


Todays Tornado Threat:


Todays Wind Threat:


Todays Hail Threat:


Please take todays severe weather threat VERY SERIOUSLY! The hatched zone on the tornado outlook means significant tornadoes of EF2+ are possible. The hatched zone on the hail outlook means that hail of 2"+ diameter is possible. This hatched zone for hail extends from Texas to South Carolina. Below is an alert map as of 2:15 PM CDT:



Orange - Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Brown - Special Weather Statement
Yellow - Tornado Watch
Pink - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

[JLM]

Big update tonight. Tomorrow will feature a potentially widespread severe weather outbreak across the Mississippi River Valley. There are 2 Moderate Risk zones for tomorrow. Area 1 is for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Area 2 is across portions of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. The Enhanced Risk is in place for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri. Something to note is that nearly the entire state of Illinois is in an Enhanced Risk or higher for tomorrow. The Slight Risk is in place for portions of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. The Marginal Risk is in place for portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. Below is the Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow:


So what are we looking at for hazards? Well, all hazards are at play, and some hazards are greater in some spots than in others. Ill break it down by hazard below.

First is the Tornado Threat, which is at 15% for both Moderate Risk zones. There is also a SIG risk for the hatched areas in the map below. 


The Wind Threat is also quite elevated, with a 45% risk across the northern MDT risk zone. There is a SIG wind risk for both MDT risk zones, but the southern MDT zone remains at 30%.


Next is the Hail Threat. This hazard is particularly elevated for the northern MDT risk zone, as there is currently a 30% zone with a SIG risk for that area. The southern MDT zone remains at slight hail risk levels.


Heading into Day 3, severe potential drops dramatically. There is a Marginal Risk for portions of the Southeast and also interior Northeast.


Looking forward now to Day 6, there is already an Enhanced Risk for portions of Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee.


Folks, we are headed into the heart of the spring severe weather season. By now you should know the drill, but if not, make sure to have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts on any severe weather day. With tomorrows severe risk, there are AT LEAST 70.9 MILLION people at risk for severe weather. Some major cities include Memphis TN, Cedar Rapids IA, Jonesboro AR, Chicago IL, Nashville TN, St Louis MO, Madison WI, Des Moines IA, Indianapolis IN, Milwaukee WI, Cincinnati OH, Louisville KY, Dallas TX, Columbus OH, Kansas City MO, and Toledo OH.

[JLM]

The separate Moderate Risk zones have merged this morning. There is now 10 million people in JUST the Moderate Risk zone. This will be a high impact event over a very large area. Half of the state of Illinois is now in a Moderate Risk. 
Here is the newly updated outlook:


There are over 18 million at risk for significant tornadoes today. Newly updated tornado outlook:


Over 21 million are at risk for significant straight line winds today. Newly updated wind outlook:


Over 15 million are at risk for significant hail today. Newly updated hail outlook:


Just let these numbers sink in for a moment. In total, over 88 million are in some risk for severe weather today. 88 million. 

With the tornado threat, the SPC mentioned that long track, strong to violent tornadoes are possible. This is probably the closest we have been to a tornado driven High Risk in quite a while. Do note that a Moderate Risk can still be just as severe as a High Risk, its just that a High Risk is only triggered when theres ample confidence on such scenario where one is needed. Im not sure we will end up with a High Risk today, but you never know. Have **MULTIPLE** ways to receive weather alerts today. It is imperative! 

[JLM]

The SPC has officially announced two HIGH RISK (Level 5/5) zones. I will post the new outlook whenever it's released. The last time we had bi modal High Risk zones was in April 2012.

Edited March 31, 2023 by JLM

[JLM]

Extremely dangerous situation today.

Here is the new outlook:

Here is the new Tornado Outlook:

Memphis TN is just one of the major cities included in this High Risk today. This is a very serious threat and should not be taken lightly.

[JLM]

A tornado struck the Little Rock, AR metro area earlier. This is just the beginning of the event. There is currently 2 PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watches in effect, including parts of the states of Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

[JLM]

Large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground in Iowa right now:
 

 

[JLM]

Its been a good minute since the last update. Cant go into too much detail right now, im lacking time. For Day 1 we have another double Moderate Risk. This one doesnt scream High Risk potential like last week's threat did. 
Categorical Outlook:


The Moderate zones are tornado driven today for the northern one, and tonight for the southern one. There is a risk for significant tornadoes in both zones. The wind threat is at Enhanced levels for all within the orange and red zones on the map. The hail risk is at Enhanced levels for the northern half of the risk area, although significant hail is still possible as far south as Texas.

For tomorrow, there is an Enhanced Risk for a large area from the Great Lakes down into the Ohio River Valley.
Categorical Outlook:


The tornado risk is at Enhanced levels for Michigan and vicinity. There is a risk for significant tornadoes there too. The highest wind threat is generally confined to the Ohio River Valley. Hail risk is highest over portions of Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois. Sig hail risk there as well. SPC has mentioned possible upgrade to Moderate risk for tomorrow, probably tornado driven.

Beyond tomorrow, there is a Marginal risk for the Mid Atlantic region, and another one over south central Texas. After Thursday, severe weather is not currently expected really anywhere in the US for the next week or so.

[JLM]

Another thing i want to put in here is that there is an Extremely Critical fire weather threat today for portions of the plains.

[JLM]

An unprecedented situation is unfolding in eastern Broward County, FL tonight. Over the past 7 hours, a lone supercell type thunderstorm has parked itself over the city of Fort Lauderdale and vicinity, and has dumped up to 22 inches of rain at the airport. Rain is still falling, and may be falling at higher rates than earlier. Also, there have been a few tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings prompted by this cell today, and it may have dropped a tornado in the Dania Beach area earlier, as there was a debris signature on radar. A Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for the Fort Lauderdale area. Between 1-2 inches of rain is still expected in the area. This is shaping up to be a 1,000 year flood event, this is just purely catastrophic.