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PNW - 3rd La Nina Winter in a row weather talk


Chester B

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There's been no accumulation of snow despite the sometimes heavy wet flakes. My kind of snow storm.

Feb.25-23.jpg.2dfbbe567d437cd1302f084e33308f11.jpg

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Well yesterday afternoon was relatively warm and sunny so I was able to get the protection off a few plants ahead of the rain today and all week. Back to the usual gloomy winter weather. 

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We finally picked up 2" of snow between 7pm last night and morning today. Most of that melted today in the sun. We're forecast for below seasonal temps for the week ahead.

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Got 8.5" of snow late Saturday till Sunday morning. Sun was out yesterday and melted some of it. Currently snowing again. Sunny forecast for the following weekend. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
And the cold continues...
 
 
The western U.S. is experiencing one of the coldest end-of-winter periods in the historical record, with too many cold records to list.
 
Portland?   The latest two weeks tied for the second coldest for the entire record.
 
chart%20(52).png

 

During the past few weeks, a large number of major low-temperature records were broken in the West.  Not only were a huge number of daily records broken,  but MONTHLY low-temperature records as well. That is very, very unusual.
Edited by Chester B
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It's a bit of an obscure record, but Portland has not hit 60 degrees in 130 days!  That's the longest stretch we have seen since the airport weather station was established in 1940.

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Even here in South Texas the temperatures going to drop from the 80s down to 50s , even upper 40s for the next 4 days with lows in the mid-upper 30s . No freezes expected but we already gotten used to warm spring weather now this lol.  What a crazy winter.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

Only 5 days at 60F and over and no 70s yet.  Long term forecast shows rain every day and mid 50's almost into May.  Pretty miserable year so far.  So many dormant plants that usually would have flowered in Feb, are just showing signs of being alive.  I have a feeling this is going to be like last year, and things will do a 180 in mid June and we'll go straight into the heat.

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10 hours ago, Chester B said:

Only 5 days at 60F and over and no 70s yet.  Long term forecast shows rain every day and mid 50's almost into May.  Pretty miserable year so far.  So many dormant plants that usually would have flowered in Feb, are just showing signs of being alive.  I have a feeling this is going to be like last year, and things will do a 180 in mid June and we'll go straight into the heat.

Yep certainly shaping up to be a repeat of 2022. Pretty sick of the continuous cool, would like some warm days at one point here… At least it’s been sunny most days by the water with most of the nasty snow / hail / graupel staying to the interior of the Island. We have been getting snow pretty much every night out in woods at work for the past 3 weeks, anything interior of the Island and >500m has been continuously white. Pretty rare to see this time of year. 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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My family in the Rogue Valley have reported similar conditions, and after what my mother called a relatively severe winter.  But she is very grateful for all the precipitation, which is preferable to a dry spring leading to more severe fires and drought in the summer.

It's similarly been a very cool, dull spring for me so far.  March was almost identical to February.  I've had one day touch 60ºF so far and it's not forecast to be repeated yet.  Hoping for things to turn around by the end of April, when usually (there have been exceptions even recently) summer starts winning out over winter.

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Manchester, Lancashire, England

53.4ºN, 2.2ºW, 65m AMSL

Köppen climate Cfb | USDA hardiness zone 9a

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OMG... I really hope this will happen. i am just sick of these prolonged 'much below average temperatures' that we have been having.  Screenshot_20230407-172903.thumb.png.d45653db5385931612bebac97428c417.png

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That would be a dream.  Right now I see three days above average in the long term forecast, with the rest being a mixed bag.  I'm not holding my breath.  Our plants still think its February, it's ridiculous.

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I'll believe it when it happens. Had basically this same forecast about a week ago for this weekend and the ridge fell apart overnight and we got an atmospheric river and high 40s instead.

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I keep seeing high 70s in my long term, but it fizzles out after a day or two.   Looks like we'll be heading into May only 10F below normal instead of 15F like the previous months.  Big shocker- rain this weekend, just like every other weekend this year.  Next weekend looks dry, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least it stays light out until almost 8 so I can continue the spring cleanup on weekday nights when its dry.

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@Chester B It has been a crap spring for us too so far. March was the dullest/cloudiest on record for me and also the 2nd wettest too. I think the highest I have had so far this year is like 17C / 63F on a couple of days. I may have had one day of 18C / 64F. That is still really bad for mid-April now, considering we had 21C in February a few years back.

We are due to warm up quite a bit this weekend and into next week however. The first 21C / 70F of the year on Sunday hopefully. Possibly mid 70’s F on Tuesday. It can’t come soon enough. The lack of a proper warm up this spring hasn’t helped with recovery rates on damaged palms/plants following the crap winter we had. It seems to be a similar story for you guys too. 🙄

1EA6F283-51CC-44E3-B599-42C7FF5D8D96.thumb.png.d63a862c9ff6345779a5d8ab0a47a9ff.png

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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5 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@Chester B It has been a crap spring for us too so far. March was the dullest/cloudiest on record for me and also the 2nd wettest too. I think the highest I have had so far this year is like 17C / 63F on a couple of days. I may have had one day of 18C / 64F. That is still really bad for mid-April now, considering we had 21C in February a few years back.

We are due to warm up quite a bit this weekend and into next week however. The first 21C / 70F of the year on Sunday hopefully. Possibly mid 70’s F on Tuesday. It can’t come soon enough. The lack of a proper warm up this spring hasn’t helped with recovery rates on damaged palms/plants following the crap winter we had. It seems to be a similar story for you guys too. 🙄

1EA6F283-51CC-44E3-B599-42C7FF5D8D96.thumb.png.d63a862c9ff6345779a5d8ab0a47a9ff.png

Pretty similar it sounds.  We've had 5 days in the 60's but no 70 yet.  I'm wondering if we're going to break the record for the latest 70F day.  Lots of rain, hail and graupel here, but no frosts for a long time and we're well beyond our average last frost date.  Plants still think its February but things are slowly starting to wake up.

And YES this long duration of below average temperatures has really hindered recovery.  I removed my Butia eriospatha as it wasn't going to make it.  This is the first time I've ever had to remove a palm that was fairly large.  Three of four days with no precipitation and temps over 15C would go a long way.  At least it looks like you'll be getting some.

Surprisingly both of my W robusta are alive and actively growing - weird stuff.

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23 hours ago, Chester B said:

Pretty similar it sounds.  We've had 5 days in the 60's but no 70 yet.  I'm wondering if we're going to break the record for the latest 70F day.  Lots of rain, hail and graupel here, but no frosts for a long time and we're well beyond our average last frost date.  Plants still think its February but things are slowly starting to wake up.

And YES this long duration of below average temperatures has really hindered recovery.  I removed my Butia eriospatha as it wasn't going to make it.  This is the first time I've ever had to remove a palm that was fairly large.  Three of four days with no precipitation and temps over 15C would go a long way.  At least it looks like you'll be getting some.

Surprisingly both of my W robusta are alive and actively growing - weird stuff.

No frosts since Jan in London but the winter has had an abnormal amount of polar vortexs. March was very cloudy way below the average sunshine hours and wet. I have not been in London since late March however the forecast has been showing lots of sunshine hours and mild weather. Looks like low 70s and high 60s next week. Hopefully this is the end of the wetter weather. Lots of predictions pointing towards a hot summer at the moment, we will see. Spain is expected to be hotter than average so as those warm/hot air masses travel up to here we might get a few heatwaves. At the moment the jetstream still seems very unstable like it was during the winter. In central London it has reached the 60s 17 times so far this year in my garden, a lot of those times just barely.

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@Foxpalms You’re lucky you have been overseas somewhere warmer over the past week or two. The weather has been absolutely atrocious here, especially in recent days. On Wednesday we had a storm and the windiest April conditions in SE England for at least a decade. 45-50mph wind gusts here. I had an F1 tornado just down the road from me which damaged gardens. Quite a bit of heavy rain too and barely any sun. Temps barely getting above 12C / 54F.

Following on from where March left off, the first half of April has been a shocker here. I would rate spring so far as 3/10 overall. A really poor first half of the season. It hasn’t been particularly cold, but below average daytime temps, very cloudy and pretty wet with that fairly destructive storm as well. Emerging tree foliage appears to be at least a week or two behind schedule. We are in an almost identical situation to the PNW, although marginally warmer. It can only get warmer and sunnier for both locations at this point however. 👍

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@Foxpalms You’re lucky you have been overseas somewhere warmer over the past week or two. The weather has been absolutely atrocious here, especially in recent days. On Wednesday we had a storm and the windiest April conditions in SE England for at least a decade. 45-50mph wind gusts here. I had an F1 tornado just down the road from me which damaged gardens. Quite a bit of heavy rain too and barely any sun. Temps barely getting above 12C / 54F.

Following on from where March left off, the first half of April has been a shocker here. I would rate spring so far as 3/10 overall. A really poor first half of the season. It hasn’t been particularly cold, but below average daytime temps, very cloudy and pretty wet with that fairly destructive storm as well. Emerging tree foliage appears to be at least a week or two behind schedule. We are in an almost identical situation to the PNW, although marginally warmer. It can only get warmer and sunnier for both locations at this point however. 👍

It looks like the temperatures have also been downgraded. We need some southerly winds, the jetstream is still all over the place. Southern Europe seems to be above average, so if we can get an airmass from there we the weather will be warm.

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On 4/5/2023 at 9:27 AM, Chester B said:

Only 5 days at 60F and over and no 70s yet.  Long term forecast shows rain every day and mid 50's almost into May.  Pretty miserable year so far.  So many dormant plants that usually would have flowered in Feb, are just showing signs of being alive.  I have a feeling this is going to be like last year, and things will do a 180 in mid June and we'll go straight into the heat.

As we have mentioned, Oregon (PNW) weather has tendency to "GET STUCK" on what ever pattern it is on.  Only a big push can change that such as change in season.  But so far even longer days and higher noon sun of "Spring" has not changed that.  Brookings is and has been stuck on this cold and wet pattern since Nov of last year with brief fake change in Jan. 

Even though the weather guys are saying La Nina is over, it takes time for weather patterns in the North Pacific to change.  I suppose we won't see this change until June or later this year.  My wild guess is we should see a week plus of some more spring like weather in second half of this month, April, and then another batch of "cold and wet" towards June.  But by June the pattern will begin to change, slowly at first then all at once.  

Whats your guess?

Edited by Banana Belt
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It appears reprieve is in the horizon. This should hopefully move spring a long and jump start some of my plants. My wife is getting sick of my tomatoes and peppers living in the house, they can finally move to the greenhouse by the weekend now that the overnight lows are more reasonable. 

image.thumb.png.109561b81e03f80c86b797df7cd68e15.png

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Next week is looking good but rain after that again.  However they seem to terrible with long term predictions out this way.  Right now I'm seeing a week of 65-75 temps and sunny, I sure hope this pans out.  I've already booked a 4 day weekend to coincide with this.  

On 4/19/2023 at 5:45 AM, Banana Belt said:

Even though the weather guys are saying La Nina is over, it takes time for weather patterns in the North Pacific to change.  I suppose we won't see this change until June or later this year.  My wild guess is we should see a week plus of some more spring like weather in second half of this month, April, and then another batch of "cold and wet" towards June.  But by June the pattern will begin to change, slowly at first then all at once.  

I agree, if I had to guess this is how I see it playing out.  We may end up with another year like last year where October was just downright hot.

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Looks like our first real stretch of ABOVE average temperatures(4 days),  that will rapidly descend back to WELL BELOW normal temps again. I took Friday off to enjoy this first bit of much delayed warm weather.  After this stretch I should know for sure what is going to make it or die.  This heat will help the plants to realize if they're dead or not.  

image.thumb.png.a8dbcf1b4c5f168a9040075e79604ded.png

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It has been a wild couple days. Yesterday first 70 degree day, today the first 80 degree day and tomorrow we may hit 90. 
 

The sad news is that as of Sunday we’ll be dropping back down to 10 degrees below normal for the foreseeable future. 

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Didn’t make it to 90 today but 88F was close enough. A really nice day and the plants and trees sprung to life. 

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We hit 87 in my area, 3 degree more than the forecast

 Now, we are back to slightly cooler temps. 

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