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PNW - 3rd La Nina Winter in a row weather talk


Chester B

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23 hours ago, southpacific73 said:

Thanks Chester B for the heads up on this upcoming cold weather. I checked out tropical tidbits and ventusky for the long range scenarios. Let’s just say it’s not pretty yikes 😱 Hopefully the numbers get better as we get closer to that week!

Fortunately the models are backing off. Both daytime and nighttime temps are looking much better. A couple nights no colder than 25 and daytime highs at 40F or above. 

A711ED9B-892A-449D-AF31-16C365F15E30.png

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Chester B as expected the forecasted temps for next week are moderating and don’t look that bad high 30s daytime to high 20s in the night for next week. The week leading up to Christmas weekend is still unknown which is showing near freezing highs and low 20s. Hopefully that forecasts moderates also!

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Doesn’t look to bad at all. And super dry! We have been very dry this fall and our reservoirs are pretty low from the summer. Most of the precip has fallen as snow (higher up at least where our reservoirs are) which is great for next year, but doesn’t fix the now issue haha. Very weird for the wettest time of year, in a La Niña to boot. 
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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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It’s definitely been pretty dry here as well for this time of year but it still seems to find a way to rain on the weekends. 

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I hate having these apps on your phone. One day later my app is showing the coldest I would ever experience at this location. it blows my mind how drastically they change from day to day. 

 

 

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@Chester Bagree, look at the difference between the screenshot yesterday to today. Quite a difference. They always overestimate the cold this far out though, I’m sure it will be dialled back by the time the cold comes. Yep pretty good arctic blasts for us before x-mas. Maybe the new year will bring better fortunes. 
8ABC40A9-5C87-4936-A369-FFAD8C15DF87.thumb.png.2cf00670bbbf3a098a55dbaaeee1c6e2.png

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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@ShadyDan I’ve learned to be a little more patient with these forecasts as you are right they always improve. Still not happy seeing this though. 

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55 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I hate having these apps on your phone. One day later my app is showing the coldest I would ever experience at this location. it blows my mind how drastically they change from day to day. 

 

 

C6992C51-AFD3-482C-9072-C7143DAC3F06.png

At least for here that apple weather app doesn't seem to be particularly accurate. It always shows colder temperatures than what it ends up as. Either way looks like a bad freeze, hopefully you're plants will make it.

 

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40 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

At least for here that apple weather app doesn't seem to be particularly accurate. It always shows colder temperatures than what it ends up as. Either way looks like a bad freeze, hopefully you're plants will make it.

 

Yeah they seem pretty horrible.  After this upcoming cold snap we're returning to seasonal temps.  Our winter/spring is earlier here than other parts of the country.  December is our coldest month, with January  second.  By the time February hits, things are on a upswing but still there is some potential for a cold couple of days.  So far I've only lost two plants to cold in the six winters I've been here.

Weather network is showing a more favorable forecast. 

image.png.fcf3c3c2007ac768a8141759878c8de0.png

 

Edited by Chester B
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16 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Yeah they seem pretty horrible.  After this upcoming cold snap we're returning to seasonal temps.  Our winter/spring is earlier here than other parts of the country.  December is our coldest month, with January  second.  By the time February hits, things are on a upswing but still there is some potential for a cold couple of days.  So far I've only lost two plants to cold in the six winters I've been here.

Weather network is showing a more favorable forecast. 

 

image.png.ea31796e49fbf8ad67c57880215608e5.png

The temperature is supposed to return to around or slightly above seasonal temperatures  here after our freeze. Hopefully Jan and Feb are mild then we are in the clear.

Screenshot_20221212-181251670 (1).jpg

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I agree with you Chester B and ShadyDan that these forecasts can give you migraines worrying about your plants. I find the only slightly reliable site is tropical tidbits which gives you several scenarios using various international weather models other than that it’s quite variable until you get closer to that specific week. Hopefully this our last outbreak but I’m sure January will bring us surprises!

Edited by southpacific73
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Cold night coming up tomorrow.  It will be my coldest night of the year.  After that its looking pretty good.

image.thumb.png.7b4b4437fe9932b44cfdd67e70c6860c.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well we went from that Arctic blast straight into a major Pineapples Express. Flooding, downed trees and landslides. Currently I’m one of the 100,000 or so people in the Portland area without power. It’s been off for 3.5 hours with no crews dispatched or root cause according to the PGE website. I sure hope it comes back by tonight. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

There is a guy who lives fairly close to me in Nanoose and keeps pretty detailed weather records. He has a decent high quality home weather station, so I trust his data to be fairly accurate. Despite the La Niña, this was the driest year we have had in Nanoose since he started recording his data 19 years ago with 798mm of precipitation. His average is 1,045mm. While we had a pretty wet and miserable late spring / early summer, the taps completely turned off mid-July and didn’t turn on again until late October. Even then, our typically wettest months (especially November) were relatively dry. Despite the drier November and December, much of that precipitation did fall as snow in the higher elevation areas of the Island, so our snow pack should be in good shape for next year. Our lower elevation reservoirs and lakes are still quite low, but January has been pretty wet so far with lots more rain in the forecast which should help to top those up. 
 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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@ShadyDan We had about 8" more rain than you this year, we came in at 40" which has been higher than the last 3 years.  The first half of the year was pretty wet.

Upcoming weather - talk about consistency!  This is pretty much what I can expect for most of the next 2-3 months, with each month being a little warmer.  I personally don't enjoy 4-5 months of this spring weather, too much of the same for me.

image.png.4edcb09b2abd1bd1e48ef528436ab16d.png

Edited by Chester B
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3 hours ago, Chester B said:

@ShadyDan We had about 8" more rain than you this year, we came in at 40" which has been higher than the last 3 years.  The first half of the year was pretty wet.

Upcoming weather - talk about consistency!  This is pretty much what I can expect for most of the next 2-3 months, with each month being a little warmer.  I personally don't enjoy 4-5 months of this spring weather, too much of the same for me.

image.png.4edcb09b2abd1bd1e48ef528436ab16d.png

February / March was quite dry for us. I wonder if the storms went south and hit Oregon instead of us.

Exactly what my forecast looks like too, temperatures and all. I'll take this any day over another cold blast. I always bank on February to start giving us some nice warmer / sunny days so hopefully that pans out in another month. On the plus side, daffodils and crocuses are already starting to push above the soil in some spots. Definitely ahead of last year (thankfully).

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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I can't complain really if we don't get any more cold.  It just feels like we have about 6 months every year at 50 degrees with a chance of rain.  February can throw some nice days at us, and generally that's when I start itching to get out in the garden.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like a pattern change to some colder weather is coming up to start February. after this dry stretch. On the bright side la nina is on the way out of here.

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18 hours ago, nick206 said:

Looks like a pattern change to some colder weather is coming up to start February. after this dry stretch. On the bright side la nina is on the way out of here.

Colder nights for sure.  I'm looking to be at or slightly above freezing just about every night in the extended forecast.  Just about in the clear though, once we I get into the 3rd week of February I feel like its smooth sailing.

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Heads up - right now models are showing some cold weather starting Saturday overnight.  Daytime highs above freezing but some chilly looking nights.  Hopefully the models back off before then.

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10 hours ago, Chester B said:

Heads up - right now models are showing some cold weather starting Saturday overnight.  Daytime highs above freezing but some chilly looking nights.  Hopefully the models back off before then.

Forecast here has been flip flopping, as it often does this far out, but it’s not looking too bad as of right now. Hopefully it stays more or less like this. Anything over -5C I don’t worry about anything in the garden. That lack of precipitation looks nice though! 

B1A6D6E8-9395-44BE-95F1-3CF5EDEC2002.png

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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2 hours ago, ShadyDan said:

Forecast here has been flip flopping, as it often does this far out, but it’s not looking too bad as of right now. Hopefully it stays more or less like this. Anything over -5C I don’t worry about anything in the garden. That lack of precipitation looks nice though! 

B1A6D6E8-9395-44BE-95F1-3CF5EDEC2002.png

Right now I’m showing -4s and -5 at night. Daytime highs above freezing at least. 

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The forecast here is getting chillier as well and dry.  I am debating if I would cover some of my palms. I still hope it will change though. 

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59 minutes ago, Trustandi said:

The forecast here is getting chillier as well and dry.  I am debating if I would cover some of my palms. I still hope it will change though. 

My forecast is getting worse the closer we get, at least the nightime lows are. I' m seeing 20F now which would be the second coldest temp I've seen at my place.  Two bad cold spells in one year will suck.

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45 minutes ago, Chester B said:

My forecast is getting worse the closer we get, at least the nightime lows are. I' m seeing 20F now which would be the second coldest temp I've seen at my place.  Two bad cold spells in one year will suck.

Welcome to my world. I am just coming out of my second bad freeze in what has been a crap winter. I went down to -8C / 17-18F here during both events, which was my lowest temperatures since 2018. Parts of London have had their lowest temperatures since the famous 2010 freeze and also their lowest January temps since 1987. We had a ton of rain in between both freezes too, which has just exacerbated any rot/fungal issues. A terrible, terrible winter. I can’t wait to see the back of it now. Roll on spring!

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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From what I can see on Windy, looks like most of the cold air will be East of the Island and firing out the Columbia gorge. Oregon, especially further south towards Salem, look pretty darn cold for this event. We will get our fair share of cold coming out of the Fraser as well, but does not look nearly as bad as the December freeze we had.

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Here’s my forecast temperatures for next week! Everyone else’s temperatures look better than mine lol. I also have my friend snow coming to visit me again towards the end of next week!

6A06C542-D8B2-45CF-B47B-E4D1477343EA.png

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1 hour ago, ShadyDan said:

looks like most of the cold air will be East of the Island and firing out the Columbia gorge

That is the whole issue here.  Our normal winter weather is milder compared to areas around us, but when a true Arctic blast comes through and has some strength behind it we get colder due to that opening in the mountains.

Plus we never have a cold event that isn't wet before and after.

image.png.90ae8041e7fbca7df9774787c013d0fa.png

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It's pretty interesting because forecasts can vary a lot between your source of information, One thing I noticed is that the American weather models are always more extreme than the European ones at least regarding forecasts for Europe. And it looks like that at day time the predictions on my favourite app are more accuarte at daytime and less accuarte at night time. It seems to me that at daytime it gets updated by the European models and at night time they switch to the American ones. So when you just want to look at the forecast before bed at night you get a shock because all of a sudden it looks like hard freezes are coming your way and the next morning everything looks less severe again. It's not like the forecast is completely wrong in terms of trends but usually it doesn't get as cold (or exteremly hot in summer). Right now we're in a smiliar situation in Western Europe with the overall forecast though. The forecast before the "cold spell" that is now at its end was way worse than it came out to be. I protected several plants that have been damaged by our cold blast in December and it would not have been necessary. There were predictions with temperatures down to -6°C and many frosty nights but we barely got any frost at all and my minimum temperature was only -2.6°C one night. Other than that just cold weather but no hard freezes.

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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3 hours ago, Chester B said:

My forecast is getting worse the closer we get, at least the nightime lows are. I' m seeing 20F now which would be the second coldest temp I've seen at my place.  Two bad cold spells in one year will suck.

I usually observere the radar thoroughly hour for hour (interactive) and make my own predictions because sometimes clear skies are predicted but when you look at the radar it seems very unlikely that it clears up. Sometimes there are fronts colliding and from the radar you can already see that the cold one is not able to reach you. Things like that...

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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A little colder now in the forecast but still dry and not concerning for me. Our December freeze was actually pretty dry, the only precip that fell before the worst of the cold was nice “dry” snow,that insulated everything, then didn’t rain until the temps were up to 15C a few days after the freeze. Looking like this freeze will be nice and dry too thankfully, certainly a rare occurrence to have a dry freeze here. 

98191FFB-704E-4C05-ACB4-00C3234437EE.png

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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59 minutes ago, ShadyDan said:

A little colder now in the forecast but still dry and not concerning for me. Our December freeze was actually pretty dry, the only precip that fell before the worst of the cold was nice “dry” snow,that insulated everything, then didn’t rain until the temps were up to 15C a few days after the freeze. Looking like this freeze will be nice and dry too thankfully, certainly a rare occurrence to have a dry freeze here. 

98191FFB-704E-4C05-ACB4-00C3234437EE.png

My weather forecast is a whole lot worse.  1.5" of rain that will continue as the weather drops.  Then cold and windy again.  Horrible set up as usual, with rain on the backside. Worse than December.  Around here people are seeing damage to zone 7 broad leaf evergreens this year for some reason.  Local weather guys have a slightly improved forecast.

image.png.714734f420de55ef241c5d49b94c97fe.pngimage.thumb.png.708f5faf207a7d13592d6432a60e2e90.png

Edited by Chester B
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Things are easing off a bit.  Two cold nights, colder than what I typically see in a year.  I am wrapping some of the smaller, and more tender plants.

image.png.4f333042f8e4640b478dc1034032ec6a.png

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Looking pretty enjoyable actually for the next few days. I’ll certainly take these temperatures especially with all the sun. Today was beautiful. 

BB631680-12AA-4648-9ED7-67E2315026DD.png

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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Didn’t even drop to -3 last night. Temperatures are already on their way up quick, looking like it’s going to be a beautiful, crisp day. 

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C, 23/24: 1.1C (so far!)

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4 hours ago, ShadyDan said:

Didn’t even drop to -3 last night. Temperatures are already on their way up quick, looking like it’s going to be a beautiful, crisp day. 

-2C for me last night but the cold east wind is blowing.

Tonight is my cold night somewhere around 23F or -5C.  It's a brief drop and then its looking good into mid February.  So this should be it for the year, the second half of Feb is what I consider the safe zone.

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17 minutes ago, Chester B said:

So this should be it for the year, the second half of Feb is what I consider the safe zone.

Ah, the trusty "safe zone". I remember saying the exact same thing pretty much in late January / early February 2018. It was a rather mild winter that year and I considered anything beyond mid-February as being safe, in regards to palm killing temperatures at least. I even started planting stuff ahead of spring as it was so mild up until that point.

Well low and behold a freak easterly freeze hit out of nowhere right at the end of February 2018 and I experienced my coldest temperature since I began growing palms and exotics. Almost 5 years later and it is still the coldest temperature that I have had here and about 3C colder than anything I have experienced this winter during the two bad freeze events.

So while the odds remain very low, and you almost certainly won't have any bad cold during the 2nd half of February, you still cannot rule it out. Especially since you are up at 45N. All it takes is one SSW event or a bad polar outbreak from BC or Alberta and you are suddenly in trouble. I believe Portland has experienced -17C in late February before. Just saying.

I'm not out of the woods here until 1st March at the earliest. I learnt my lesson in 2018. It's pretty much the same for you guys too. In fact you guys have had it quite a bit colder than here in late February before. Just be careful about letting your guard down. I think they had -13C or -14C on the west coast of France at 45N during the last week of February 2018. That area is warmer than the PNW too.

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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37 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Ah, the trusty "safe zone". I remember saying the exact same thing pretty much in late January / early February 2018. It was a rather mild winter that year and I considered anything beyond mid-February as being safe, in regards to palm killing temperatures at least. I even started planting stuff ahead of spring as it was so mild up until that point.

Well low and behold a freak easterly freeze hit out of nowhere right at the end of February 2018 and I experienced my coldest temperature since I began growing palms and exotics. Almost 5 years later and it is still the coldest temperature that I have had here and about 3C colder than anything I have experienced this winter during the two bad freeze events.

So while the odds remain very low, and you almost certainly won't have any bad cold during the 2nd half of February, you still cannot rule it out. Especially since you are up at 45N. All it takes is one SSW event or a bad polar outbreak from BC or Alberta and you are suddenly in trouble. I believe Portland has experienced -17C in late February before. Just saying.

I'm not out of the woods here until 1st March at the earliest. I learnt my lesson in 2018. It's pretty much the same for you guys too. In fact you guys have had it quite a bit colder than here in late February before. Just be careful about letting your guard down. I think they had -13C or -14C on the west coast of France at 45N during the last week of February 2018. That area is warmer than the PNW too.

I'm not worried, I haven't had any real cold in the second half of Feb.  People I know who have been growing in the PNW a lot longer than me (decades) consider it the Safe zone so that's good enough for me.  The sun is higher, the days are much longer (10.5 hours+ of daylight) and February is when we can experience some pretty warm days.  We had some overnight snow in March last year if I remember correctly but it wasn't all that cold.  You have to go back to 1950 to find anything like -17C.

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32 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I'm not worried, I haven't had any real cold in the second half of Feb.  People I know who have been growing in the PNW a lot longer than me (decades) consider it the Safe zone so that's good enough for me.  The sun is higher, the days are much longer (10.5 hours+ of daylight) and February is when we can experience some pretty warm days.  We had some overnight snow in March last year if I remember correctly but it wasn't all that cold.  You have to go back to 1950 to find anything like -17C.

For the UK and the Pacific Northwest I'd say late February is very likely in the safe. By that I mean light frosts might be possible but not hard freezes except in rare cases. Obviously though some areas such as central London and Brookings Oregon shouldn't even experience light frosts by late February. Day length here then is between 10 hours to 10 hours 50mins.

Edited by Foxpalms
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