Southwestern U.S. and California Fall / Winter 2022 / 23: Triple dip trip..

[Silas_Sancona]

With Monsoon 2022 now in the books, attention across the U.S. Southwest and California now turns to what may lie ahead for the winter ahead..  After a " decent " Monsoon season here, and some other parts of the Southwest, ..and parts of Southern California,  will the trend of the last couple years continue? or, could the 3rd La Nina winter throw some interesting curves into the mix? 

For the moment, here at least, " Fantastic Fall Hiking Season" has returned as " Sizzle Season " looks to be put to bed..  Warmth will continue for the time being, in the low deserts at least, but, 80s and 90s are better than daily 100+ (++) heat, especially now that nights are trending back into the 70s, with 60s not far off in the forecast. Mountains, and parts of Southern AZ are already there.

After the rare visit from a Tropical system, most of California looks to be settling into a fairly typical, early fall pattern of warm days, cool evenings..  with some tropical / left over monsoonal moisture hanging around some parts of the state atm, which is also pretty typical.. Most of the more memorable lightning events that i saw in San Jose/ would track in the Central Valley occured this time of year out there.

 Overall,  things should stay warm/ mild for the time being both here and in CA.

Thoughts from the Weather West twitter page / Daniel Swain: As stated, warm, but no " serious " heatwaves being seen in the forecasts -for now-














Looking further out:

While it is impossible to know what the weather might  do as we head toward winter, there are some signals to watch.. Some are a bit conflicted right now..  As always, take these " thoughts " with a grain of salt.. Next NMME update should be out by Wednesday / Thursday.  We'll take a look into that " Crystal Ball " then.

As most already know, we're on track for a Triple dip La Nina Winter..  Which likely means another dry / very dry ..and mild to warm winter for most of the west/ Southwest ahead.  That said, no two winters are alike, even during ENSO - driven years.. Many other factors play into how these two major Wx cycles influence day to day weather.  One thing that could add some influence?, the major volcanic eruption in the Southwest Pacific last year which injected a decent amount of water vapor into the Stratosphere..  On one hand, that could cause the polar Jet Stream to tighten up around the North Pole and limit how much cold air is able to slip south this winter..  On the other, it could have very little influence on how the Jet stream acts in the next few months..

At the same time, there is a suggestion that La Nina itself may be on the wane by the latter half of this winter.. Depending on if ..or how quickly that occurs during this time frame, that may open the door to more precipitation for California and the inter-mountain west, particularly, over the upper Co. River Basin in late winter.

That said, while it could be an " ok " year up there, it is highly unlikely it will be near enough to put a significant dent in the overall, on-going drought..   ..And again, there are some glaring conflicting signals in some  longer term forecast models..  Via Tropical Tidbits:  CFS Monthly suggesting some wetter periods at times in December, Jan., Feb.,  while current CanSIPS Model data keeps things dry over the coming months. Both should update in the next day or so, so we'll see how they're looking then. Other models are also leaning dry for the winter ahead across the southwest, for the moment at least..

Current ENSO CFS v2 graph, via Stormsurf: A bit interesting since SST Temps could bottom out a tad cooler than last year, before starting an upward trend.  Possible they end up in the same range, if not slightly warmer than they were as we headed toward the start of Monsoon season in 2021 as well.. There are some thoughts that wetter monsoons tend to occur when ENSO is running " down the middle " or on the dry side of neutral, vs. during a legit El Nino.  Last couple years, ...and maybe next year could add more critical data to this " idea ".  If on the warmer, " headed toward El Nino " side of things by that time, perhaps that could include a more active East Pacific Hurricane Season next summer.. Not that this year has been all that quiet.

Obviously, this will change ..perhaps by a lot by May 2023.



September ENSO plot update from the IRI:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table


For what it is worth, Accuweather's " Winter Forecast "
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/KEwfRiKw

A couple thoughts from Judah Cohen:  Regarding any cold outbreaks, If there's anything to keep an eye on going forward, it might be Siberia..







Link to his September 23rd Blog update on AER:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

For now, enjoy some of the best weather of the year, especially after such a hot summer for many..  Take a hike, ...and some pictures,  ...Visit some gardens / friend's gardens..  Plant stuff..  Get Outside.


 

[Silas_Sancona]

Thoughts on the winter ahead, from today's November update of the CPC's  NMME Model Suite:

While the overall precip and temp trends seem to favor a standard La Nina Winter pattern, as you can see,  this year could be a little more interesting ...depending on which model has the correct idea on how the pattern progresses over the coming months. Could California and the west be in for super dry winter #3? ...or could there be  **Some**  drought  relief ahead this time around?


November  Precip. /Temp. Anoms:







December Precip. / Temp. Anoms:









January Precip. Temp. Anoms:








Feb. Precip. / Temp. Anoms:








March Precip. Temp. Anoms:








***Included the NMME's " thoughts " on where ENSO may be headed as we get into the Spring of 2023.  No doubt these maps will have changed by the time we get to the start of Spring in a few months***

Right now, general thoughts by many is that the current cold / La Nina side of ENSO will be be headed more toward neutral sometime in March / April,   ...with the start of a warming trend possible ( headed up, toward El Nino Territory ) starting sometime in the May / after May time frame.. We'll see how this evolves. 

Can see that on most of the Models, a distinct warm " Tongue " is starting to develop along the Equator off the west coast of South America by May  ...in this update anyway.

Will post updated " thoughts "  on this as we get closer to the start of Spring.


Feb:



March:



April:



May:

[Silas_Sancona]

CPC long range update for the winter ahead:   *** As with any and all  Wx. prediction, Long range esp., take with a grain of salt.. *** 

November:



3 month outlooks:

N D J:




D J F:




J F M:





F M A:





For the short term, here at least, warm for the next day or two, then some legit Fall weather.  Some low 50s, maybe flirting with the upper 40s in some neighborhoods early next week...




Storm scheduled to pass thru the area  over the weekend may bring some showers, ...or they stay north of us.  Does look like mountains between the Sierras and Rockies will see some snow w/ this system. Another storm, currently on the maps for mid or late week next week may bring a little more rain / snow as well.  May not be a ton, but it is something.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

This looks interesting, esp. that 6z run for S. Cal.... Of note: QPF totals for the Sierra is water equivalent, so a " potential " of 10" / 10"+ just northwest of Tahoe  would be -at least- a few feet of snow, ...if it falls as the white death.

**posting Pivitol WX data sine tha' T-bits ..is on the fritz ( Something happened to one of their servers. various model run data are out of whack -for now )**

Pivitol QPF, 06z run:



Pivitol QPF, 12z run



Oh half-reliable GFS,  Just what art thou hinting at?

[Silas_Sancona]

 Chilly morning numbers 12 / 14 / 22:

Chandler and the East Valley:





Queen Creek / San Tan Valley Area:



Tucson area:







Sonoita / Patagonia.. A bit surprised it isn't much colder in these areas.. ( Nuthin' but open country down there )






San Jose, CA / Santa Cruz / Monterrey Bay areas:

















Vista, San Marcos, Escondido and coastal North County areas..









Greater San Diego:





Around Orange Co. and L.A.











Palm Springs:




Fresno:





Modesto / Stockton:



Sacramento:






St. George:





ABQ:

[Silas_Sancona]

As i'd suspected while watching the models all week, that "Warm and pretty much dry"  forecast suggestion as we end 2022 i mentioned last week,  looks to get the boot, kicked down the road, put on ice, whatever.. ..for a little bit anyway..

While the weekend ahead looks pretty nice for pretty much everyone, Whole lot of jet stream energy crossing the Pacific will flip the pattern in the West / Southwest to wetter.. At least for the final days of the year, maybe into the first week of Jan.

For now, suggested storms look mild/ warm, vs systems with a lot of cold arctic air attached, at least at the start.. Strong possibility  California gets dumped on again as well, esp the further north you head.. Pac. N.W. should get a break from the cold too..

As far as "exact" rainfall, ..that's still up in the air a bit.. Have seen the models flip n' flop between just a little, ( here ) and quite a dumping ( here, ..and over CA / further north )

Last night's 00z suggested totals: There have been some runs that were more bullish than this over the past 3 or 4 days as well.



This morning's ( 12z run ) thoughts:



Regardless, could be looking at an inch or two ( ..or more ) inches locally over the next several days, after Tuesday.. 
There will be snow from some of these storms, esp. if any of them trend cooler. That said, if warmer, the bigger storm ..or storms, could be "Snow eaters" for the sierra / other mountains and cause rapid snow melt runoff related issues before snow levels come down low enough for all possible precip. to fall as snow.  We'll have to see how this plays out.  Don't think these will trend cool enough to be massive snow dumpers for the West, but anything is possible..


Overall, looking at today's 6-10 and 8-14 day thoughts.. it's gonna get wet, no matter what.. Darker the green "above" normal shading suggestions, the more confident you can be rainfall totals could be big ( ..or at least decent )   ***Obviously,  much can change w/ these,  and day to day forecasts..





On the flip side, look how everyone east of the Rockies flips from extreme cold, to quite warm looking anomalies..  "Weather Whiplash" anyone??..





Looking further out, things ~might~ calm down later. Some hints of a drier / warmer pattern setting up after this wet spell in some of the model runs.. We'll see.



More later...

[Silas_Sancona]

A wet start to the new year for everyone in the west, esp CA..   And it looks to continue, esp in California for the time being thanks to the continued momentum from a stronger than is typical during La Nina  East Asian Jet that is bringing repeated Atmospheric Rivers to the west coast...

Current positive numbers of the NAO, weakly positive #'s of the PNA are also likely adding more weight to this pattern hanging around for the time being, ....through -at least- the 15th -20th of Jan. as it looks right now in the longer range forecasts.. Which means..   ..Things could get a little interesting over the next 1-2 weeks, if what some of the more bullish model runs are hinting at, comes to fruition..  This morning's total Precip. forecast map from Pivitol WX was pretty eye opening, ..and that's saying a lot since CA. can see massive amounts of rainfall during winter..

06Z Total Precip. forecast:



Totals back off -a little- in the 12Z run.. Still quite impressive..  Will be watching the rest of the runs today/ next several days to see if these suggested totals hold ..or increase..



Regardless, ..and i don't say this often, but ..these kinds of rainfall totals, over a 7-10 day period are a little concerning. Rainfall over the past few days / weeks has been more than enough to saturate the ground, with many Reservoirs filling quite rapidly ( a couple in Santa Clara Co. are already topping their spillways ) and there have already been some pretty serious flooding issues in a few areas.. 

If projected rainfall meets ..or exceeds some of the eye popping totals suggested above, there are going to be bigger issues, especially in light of the many, massive fires around the state ( North / Central areas esp. ) in recent years.. Strongly suggest Where ever you are, advise keeping a close eye on any nearby creeks / monitor any and all flood forecasts / alerts carefully..

One thing is for sure, this will definitely help ease the drought, if not break it - at least temporarily- in some areas.. ..Anyone thinking it won't, is nuts, lol..


Some thoughts from Daniel Swain / Rob Mayeda.. I'm sure Daniel will have a special post on Weather West  sometime today/ tomorrow.. And again Current Wx pattern is NOT  El Nino generated...







We'll see how long the pattern holds..

In the mean time, Stay safe, ...and dry...  Enjoy that free irrigation / lack of sub 33F mornings..

[GottmitAlex]

9c/48F  has been out lowest (until now) during this rainfall.  I'll keep you posted. 

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Some updates.. ( More later.. )

18z Total precip. "thoughts" from Pivitol Wx:  In this model run, S. Cal. may get in on the action, as may parts of S. Utah. Lower elevations of AZ may see some rain but looking like mot of it will focus on the mountains / Foothills ...IF... this kind of forecast pans out..



Some thoughts from Dan Swain, and a link to his latest post on Weather West.





Link to the Weather west update:

https://weatherwest.com/archives/22404

Can't remember the last time i'd seen such wording being used by the S.F. / Monterey NWS, or the kind of  "potential" rainfall totals this particular model may be hinting at either..  This one is for Santa Rosa.. There have been others for places like Sacramento as well.. Will have to try and find the site to look at data for other areas, if accessible to the public.





Some December rainfall totals from parts of the Central Valley..  Now add some of the higher totals  suggested on top of this..



Again, while the next storm is set in stone, the other potential storms suggested later this week / next week, etc could end up being much less significant than suggested this far out..  Overall though, the suggested pattern is looking pretty certain at this point.  We'll see what happens..

....Stay Tuned...

[chinandega81]

How is the winter going in the desert southwest? All over the news they focus on coastal and central and northern CA with the rains, but how is the watershed for the Colorado River doing? Has the lower desert gotten any decent rains? It seems like it has been cool to seasonal ever since November in the SW, have there been any spells of warmer than usual temps? How is Feb looking? From afar, it seems like a dry and cool winter in AZ and Socal deserts, please correct me if i'm mistaken.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

How is the winter going in the desert southwest? All over the news they focus on coastal and central and northern CA with the rains, but how is the watershed for the Colorado River doing? Has the lower desert gotten any decent rains? It seems like it has been cool to seasonal ever since November in the SW, have there been any spells of warmer than usual temps? How is Feb looking? From afar, it seems like a dry and cool winter in AZ and Socal deserts, please correct me if i'm mistaken.

As laid out when i post in the "current temp thread", pretty quiet, overall, locally atm.. Some cool days, some milder ones mixed in.. some decent rain events, but nothing too spectacular..  Is at least one more "ok" looking rain event in the forecasts for next week before what appears to be a good stretch of drier weather takes shape.  Rains so far should be enough to see some good spring color, esp. in the foothills.. No "serious" cold, ..and no big, mid- winter heat suggested right now either..  ( i myself use the Meteorological calendar date, not the Astronomical one )

California, inc. the deserts, should be outstanding this spring when everything starts to bloom as well..

While close enough, 95% of the storms soaking CA. atm are largely bi-passed Cen. Southern AZ, ..w/ greater focus over NV / UT.. Northern UT esp..  One thing the current pattern has done is keep lows milder..  mainly 40s ( Which is not  cold ) ..Could see slightly cooler mornings if the pattern heads drier late month, but don't see any significant frost / freeze threats in the next 7-14 days..

As far as snowfall.. This is the current map from SNOTEL..  While there are some great numbers on it atm, keep in mind, the #'s seen are for this point in the overall  2022-2023 winter season.. 



***Of Note:  Just because things looks good now, doesn't mean the entire season will look as nice once we're half way through March..  CFS weeklys, and monthly forecast for Feb. and March continue to look drier / mild to warmer than the last couple months / weeks.. We'll see. None of the longer term forecasts have been completely trustworthy so far, so their "suggestions" may ..or may not pan out quite as they appear right now..

...Another thing to keep in mind,  for anyone outside CA. and the west ...who i'm sure are curious..  While recent rain / snowfall will definitely help the drought situation / put water in reservoirs, CA. esp.,  One good year, Will  NOT erase 22+ years of drought... Sorry,  Golf Courses still have to be removed / gotta keep conserving water..  

Some current views of the Drought situation, -as it stands today ( will update again on Thursday ) across the area.. I will say, a bit perplexed as to Utah's current Drought status considering current data from SNOTEL.  I'm sure someone will iron this out later.







Would take several years of consistently rainy / snowy winters like this / better than what we're seeing now, and some more monster Monsoon seasons in the west to end the drought.. As a realist, such a long term outcome is unlikely to occur.. 

For the moment, if here, or in palm springs, New Mexico, etc... Get out and enjoy the mild weather.. Heat will be back soon enough.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[chinandega81]

That's good to hear. I thought it was drier for AZ, I do hope you get better rains though. The dearth of warm spells this winter has surpised me as the SW usually sees several warm stretches above normal and this year it doesn't seem to have been the case. I hope the storms later in this season also track furthur south, but I know that isn't likely either. It's great that you haven't had damaging cold too, let's keep our fingers crossed for a benign second half of the winter...

[mnorell]

There seems to be concern at NOAA about the coming ridge over the Pacific elongating vertically poleward into the Bering Strait and a possibility (now echoing through several models) of an Arctic spillway opening down its east side, possibly down the west side of the Divide. If this solution holds, temps do not look very promising for the southwest during the fourth week of January...I for one am hoping this will change. The CPC prognosticators' discussion notes that spill could be to the west or east of the Divide (or both), but it seems that current projections seem to favor something very cold moving this direction. Hopefully there is time for this to change and give us some of that often-promised warmth--for a change!--in this seemingly endless, very consistently chilly fall/winter so far, out here around Palm Springs. My relatively new landscape here--including a whole area planted over the last six months, currently under open sky and already battered by the chill and repeated bouts (at least ten nights) below 40F in December--is too young to handle a freeze...
See the latest CPC discussion here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

[Silas_Sancona]

33 minutes ago, mnorell said:

There seems to be concern at NOAA about the coming ridge over the Pacific elongating vertically poleward into the Bering Strait and a possibility (now echoing through several models) of an Arctic spillway opening down its east side, possibly down the west side of the Divide. If this solution holds, temps do not look very promising for the southwest during the fourth week of January...I for one am hoping this will change. The CPC prognosticators' discussion notes that spill could be to the west or east of the Divide (or both), but it seems that current projections seem to favor something very cold moving this direction. Hopefully there is time for this to change and give us some of that often-promised warmth--for a change!--in this seemingly endless, very consistently chilly fall/winter so far, out here around Palm Springs. My relatively new landscape here--including a whole area planted over the last six months, currently under open sky and already battered by the chill and repeated bouts (at least ten nights) below 40F in December--is too young to handle a freeze...
See the latest CPC discussion here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Unfortunately, the CPC 10/14 Day / 3-week projections are prone to shift around a bit.. Though they can sometimes sense trends, the outlooks can also be slow to pick up on big flips..  Unfortunately, the pattern right is being pulled in several directions that will determine the outcome toward the end of the month / Feb.  ...strengths or weaknesses in X factor influencing things that would lean toward warmer or cooler weather in the west aren't showing their hand much atm..

The big things to watch include where the big 3 Teleconnections ( PNA, NAO, AO are / are headed, then add the current and forecast phase of the WPO, EPO, MJO, and Tropical forcing ( Beyond the current ENSO phase ) ..and of course the P.V.  which itself may lend a big hand in shifting things around, esp. if a potential split and SSW being suggested by various models in coming days comes to fruition..

Barring the random 38-40F morning through the middle of March, If we do head into a solid, cool / "chilly" 2 or 3 week period, it might be the last for the "winter" ..here anyway.   Rather be here, than east of here when cold starts gathering anywhere in the west, in winter, esp. at this point in the season.

 

[bubba]

The CDC long range issued December 23, 2022 for January 7-20, 2023 certainly proved to be largely accurate. While no freezing temperatures or even low temperatures under 40F have been experienced in South Florida, the lack of normal high temperatures (particularly January 14-15, 2023) only approaching 60F is not ordinary. The high temperature in Key West today was only 64F. Simply stated, the CDC prediction of colder than normal for South Florida was accurate. Our temperatures bounce back quickly compared to the southwest because of the combination of latitude and warm surrounding water. South Florida does experience the only tropical climate in the CONUS based upon Koeppen.

The CDC’s long-term predictions seem to have made substantial progress in their accuracy. While there are numerous sources available throughout social media, who base forecasting on a tethering of spaghetti runs and vanish, like Cheshire cats when wrong. Of course, when their Hail Mary is correct, they assertively feast on their genius.

That cannot be stated about the CDC, who does not vanish and takes it squarely in the shorts when inaccurate. If I were in California or anywhere in the southwest, I would heed the CDC forecast put forward by Michael. It has been many years since I have seen any prediction of arctic incursions spilling into the west coast (2007, 1990, etc). No one is bullet-proof.

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, bubba said:

The CDC long range issued December 23, 2022 for January 7-20, 2023 certainly proved to be largely accurate. While no freezing temperatures or even low temperatures under 40F have been experienced in South Florida, the lack of normal high temperatures (particularly January 14-15, 2023) only approaching 60F is not ordinary. The high temperature in Key West today was only 64F. Simply stated, the CDC prediction of colder than normal for South Florida was accurate. Our temperatures bounce back quickly compared to the southwest because of the combination of latitude and warm surrounding water. South Florida does experience the only tropical climate in the CONUS based upon Koeppen.

The CDC’s long-term predictions seem to have made substantial progress in their accuracy. While there are numerous sources available throughout social media, who base forecasting on a tethering of spaghetti runs and vanish, like Cheshire cats when wrong. Of course, when their Hail Mary is correct, they assertively feast on their genius.

That cannot be stated about the CDC, who does not vanish and takes it squarely in the shorts when inaccurate. If I were in California or anywhere in the southwest, I would heed the CDC forecast put forward by Michael. It has been many years since I have seen any prediction of arctic incursions spilling into the west coast (2007, 1990, etc). No one is bullet-proof.

Huh, didn't realize the CDC handled weather forecasts, let alone long tern Wx forecasts.. The "New conspiracy theory, for 23" maybe? 😂

..Anyhow, while it will be "cooler" ..for a little while anyway,  these "cool" episodes occur once or twice each winter almost each year..  Nothing all that special about what we'll see this ..and maybe.. next week.. None of the forecasters i trust are even mentioning it..   No worries on their end = no worries on mine .. Definitely nothing panic over.. Most people out here don't freak out when there might be some nights in the low 40s / 30s in the forecast anyway.   Just a nice cool-ish end of Jan, as we start this year's uphill climb. 

[bubba]

As you age, combined with a touch of dyslexia, the myriad of sequential code takes its toll. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center! No conspiracy theories here just an observation regarding the CPC’s accuracy in that particular forecast. I look forward to your expert analysis of the CPC’s January 13, 2023 blarney weave.

[GottmitAlex]

😁

[chinandega81]

On 1/13/2023 at 10:40 PM, mnorell said:

There seems to be concern at NOAA about the coming ridge over the Pacific elongating vertically poleward into the Bering Strait and a possibility (now echoing through several models) of an Arctic spillway opening down its east side, possibly down the west side of the Divide. If this solution holds, temps do not look very promising for the southwest during the fourth week of January...I for one am hoping this will change. The CPC prognosticators' discussion notes that spill could be to the west or east of the Divide (or both), but it seems that current projections seem to favor something very cold moving this direction. Hopefully there is time for this to change and give us some of that often-promised warmth--for a change!--in this seemingly endless, very consistently chilly fall/winter so far, out here around Palm Springs. My relatively new landscape here--including a whole area planted over the last six months, currently under open sky and already battered by the chill and repeated bouts (at least ten nights) below 40F in December--is too young to handle a freeze...
See the latest CPC discussion here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Thanks for sharing. I was looking around the website and I couldn't find that discussion or a link to it on their webpage, where did you find it? It really does seem shocking at the total lack of SW warmth this winter so far. The cold set in early and has only intensified and it looks like it may continue to do so for quite some time, even if the ultimate temperatures aren't record breaking. I can't recall a SW winter with out any occasional warm spells like this one.

[bubba]

The NOAA/CPC link attendant to Michael’s post that you copied gives you the information.

[Silas_Sancona]

4 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Thanks for sharing. I was looking around the website and I couldn't find that discussion or a link to it on their webpage, where did you find it? It really does seem shocking at the total lack of SW warmth this winter so far. The cold set in early and has only intensified and it looks like it may continue to do so for quite some time, even if the ultimate temperatures aren't record breaking. I can't recall a SW winter with out any occasional warm spells like this one.

🤦‍♂️ Cool, at times  ..but not cold..   Plenty of winters that have had cooler spells between average / above average ones.. Last year, 19-20... 17-18 is the only "really warm" winter that stands out since i have been here.

Over the course of 3 or 4 months, if a few days each winter are in the 50s / nights in the 40s, ..w a few mornings in the 30s is not cold unless extremely thin skinned.  In KS, days like the cooler ones here were T-shirt, ( ...and shorts / sandals, if you're brave, lol ) weather..

Just like the others, this cooler phase won't last long.. For one, MJO won't be hanging out in the coolest phase for the S.W.  ( Phase #2 ) for long.

Today's GEFS Forecast for the MJO: **Note:  the further out from the center the MJO tracks, the stronger the potential influence it can have on temperatures / Precip. in X area during X phase..  If it stays near or in the center, influence is weak.  Right now, forecast suggests it will be strongest ( ~ roughly: ~ sigma 2.5 ) as it quickly moves through phase 2 into 3, before weakening in 3.  Other forecast models have it staying closer to the center ( near-neutral / weaker influence )

***Also note, this forecast changes daily..***  Being one of several forecasts ..and an outlier among those forecasts ftm,  can today's thoughts changing a bit by Thursday..

While not the only factor in determining the overall pattern, stronger it is, more influence it can have..




Suggested Temp. diagrams per MJO phase for JFM ( Jan. / Feb. / Mar. ) and FMA ( Feb. / Mar. / Apr. )  

JFM:




FMA:

[mnorell]

5 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Thanks for sharing. I was looking around the website and I couldn't find that discussion or a link to it on their webpage, where did you find it? It really does seem shocking at the total lack of SW warmth this winter so far. The cold set in early and has only intensified and it looks like it may continue to do so for quite some time, even if the ultimate temperatures aren't record breaking. I can't recall a SW winter with out any occasional warm spells like this one.

I did post a link to the discussion page on the NOAA/CPC site, but I realize that page will probably be dynamically updated (and hopefully will change for the better!)...it is still there as it appeared last Friday, so I grabbed the pertinent material, here it is:

A major pattern change is forecast during late January as a high-amplitude ridge develops and strengthens near the West Coast. Ensemble means from multiple models depict this ridge axis retrograding westward from Jan 25-27 with the 500-hPa ridge becoming centered over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska. The dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued retrogression of the longwave pattern over the North Pacific and North America through week-3 (Jan 28-Feb 3) with a transition to a typical La Niña pattern with anomalous ridging over the Aleutians, downstream troughing across the western and north-central CONUS, and a subtropical ridge over the Southeast. For the week 3-4 period, excellent agreement exists between the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means with the 500-hPa pattern and surface temperatures. Forecast confidence in the temperature outlook is raised by this excellent model agreement, consistency with tropical forcing, and evolution from weeks 2 to 3. The ECMWF ensemble mean is the strongest with a full-latitude ridge extending poleward over the Bering Strait which would favor an outbreak of Arctic air into the western and/or north-central CONUS. Although the CFS model lacks a full-latitude ridge over Alaska, its solution depicts a large area of below-normal 500-hPa heights over the western and north-central CONUS. Regardless of the magnitude of the anomalous cold, the placement of upstream ridging coupled with below-normal 500-hPa heights favors below-normal temperatures throughout the West, northern to central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley. Equal chances of above or below normal temperatures (EC) is forecast for much of the southern Great Plains where forecast uncertainty is high and an intrusion of Arctic air could reach, especially if the ECMWF model solution verifies. EC is also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Great Plains where temperatures are anticipated to be highly variable. An expected storm track across the Ohio Valley along with positive 500-hPa height anomalies enhance probabilities for above-normal temperatures closer to the Gulf and East Coasts.

And I agree, this has been a continuously cold fall/winter here in the low desert in California. The CPC keeps putting up prognostic maps colored orange only to replace them with blue a week later...we are very much below average for a very long stretch now, and they just keep dodging back under their "warmth expected" (eventually) maps. We need the rain so I can't complain about that aspect of it, but I agree with you wholeheartedly that it would be nice to have some periods of warmth interspersed with it! I can't imagine how bummed the people who are paying over $600/night for their Palm Springs winter escapes (yes, that's what they are charging!) are feeling when they get here and find it uninterruptedly frigid and rainy. And Keith (bubba) of course is very much right when he points out South Florida's singularity in having a mostly dependable warm-winter climate in the Lower 48.  If you want a December/January vacation in the warmth, you should book it somewhere between Palm Beach and Key West. Unlucky timing even there can give you a chilly disappointment, but it is usually brief!

[Silas_Sancona]

4 minutes ago, mnorell said:

I did post a link to the discussion page on the NOAA/CPC site, but I realize that page will probably be dynamically updated (and hopefully will change for the better!)...it is still there as it appeared last Friday, so I grabbed the pertinent material, here it is:

A major pattern change is forecast during late January as a high-amplitude ridge develops and strengthens near the West Coast. Ensemble means from multiple models depict this ridge axis retrograding westward from Jan 25-27 with the 500-hPa ridge becoming centered over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska. The dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued retrogression of the longwave pattern over the North Pacific and North America through week-3 (Jan 28-Feb 3) with a transition to a typical La Niña pattern with anomalous ridging over the Aleutians, downstream troughing across the western and north-central CONUS, and a subtropical ridge over the Southeast. For the week 3-4 period, excellent agreement exists between the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means with the 500-hPa pattern and surface temperatures. Forecast confidence in the temperature outlook is raised by this excellent model agreement, consistency with tropical forcing, and evolution from weeks 2 to 3. The ECMWF ensemble mean is the strongest with a full-latitude ridge extending poleward over the Bering Strait which would favor an outbreak of Arctic air into the western and/or north-central CONUS. Although the CFS model lacks a full-latitude ridge over Alaska, its solution depicts a large area of below-normal 500-hPa heights over the western and north-central CONUS. Regardless of the magnitude of the anomalous cold, the placement of upstream ridging coupled with below-normal 500-hPa heights favors below-normal temperatures throughout the West, northern to central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley. Equal chances of above or below normal temperatures (EC) is forecast for much of the southern Great Plains where forecast uncertainty is high and an intrusion of Arctic air could reach, especially if the ECMWF model solution verifies. EC is also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Great Plains where temperatures are anticipated to be highly variable. An expected storm track across the Ohio Valley along with positive 500-hPa height anomalies enhance probabilities for above-normal temperatures closer to the Gulf and East Coasts.

And I agree, this has been a continuously cold fall/winter here in the low desert in California. The CPC keeps putting up prognostic maps colored orange only to replace them with blue a week later...we are very much below average for a very long stretch now, and they just keep dodging back under their "warmth expected" (eventually) maps. We need the rain so I can't complain about that aspect of it, but I agree with you wholeheartedly that it would be nice to have some periods of warmth interspersed with it! I can't imagine how bummed the people who are paying over $600/night for their Palm Springs winter escapes (yes, that's what they are charging!) are feeling when they get here and find it uninterruptedly frigid and rainy. And Keith (bubba) of course is very much right when he points out South Florida's singularity in having a mostly dependable warm-winter climate in the Lower 48.  If you want a December/January vacation in the warmth, you should book it somewhere between Palm Beach and Key West. Unlucky timing even there can give you a chilly disappointment, but it is usually brief!

Only people who complain about the normal variability of the weather here, are people from back east,  who should have never moved here / vacation here in the first place..  Notice how there's very little hymin' and hawin' from natives here about cooler days this time of year?  ..there's a reason for that. 


..and for the endless " It's so cold in FL."  memes which we in the west greatly appreciate, haha.. 🙃

[mnorell]

Well, Nathan, I think it's a highly subjective topic, so it has to be "to each his own"...but really based on personal thermostats more than any nativity. This native Southern Californian is plenty miserable this year (and was often miserable in winters of my childhood in San Diego as well as decades of adulthood in Los Angeles). The only winter-comfortable places I've lived have been Honolulu and South Florida. Even when I was in Natchez, Mississippi, there were cyclical warm periods (like 80F at 10pm, memorably having drinks with friends in the courtyard) before the cold fronts would move in. I've known plenty of people from northern climes who despise their native winters and crave endless warmth, as well as people from warmer climes who crave snow and cold. So it cuts both ways. Maybe you've had some periodic warm-ups in the Phoenix area where we haven't over the recent period, or perhaps your own Kansas experiences, as you mention, may somewhat color your tolerances and preferences...but plenty of natives here are complaining about this cold fall and winter...at least those I know and talk to. And very importantly, my plants are really complaining this year! But I really do think it's just the near-continuous nature of it that has been so palpable.

[Silas_Sancona]

A quick update on the Snowfall situation for the west, and thoughts for the final 12 days of Meteorological Winter.


Yes, these stats are good..  But note Daniel Swain's mention of "Short Term" relief..  This winter's bounty in the Upper CO. Watershed  WON'T move the needle all that much in terms of refilling the lakes, Though it will add a few drops ( see articles ) so no, Western Drought is far  from over.  Roll eyes any way you choose but No way we'll see 15, yes, that is correct,  FIFTEEN YEARS of back to back ABOVE AVERAGE winter precip. - What it would take to bring Lake Powell back to 90% / 2000 level capacity. 





https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/theres-enough-water-in-this-years-snow-to-completely-refill-lake-powell-heres-why-that-wont-happen/ar-AA17jJrJ

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2023/02/16/lake-powell-drops-to-a-new-record-low-as-feds-scramble-to-prop-it-up/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/why-increased-snowpack-may-not-help-lake-mead-water-levels/ar-AA17g0hC

Moving on, some thoughts on the pattern for the next few weeks ...as things are looking right now...

While it is looking -slightly- milder in these parts for the next few days, looking at all the current outlooks, the overall pattern entrenched over the west looks like it may continue into the start of March.

Main things keeping ..things as they are right now.. are both the stubbornly flat PNA that may take a dive into neg. territory as March begins...  Combined with that stubborn 'ol S.E. Ridge  over the Gulf / Caribbean that just won't quit..  It needs to get snuffed out ..or completely retrograde into western / southwestern Mexico / far E. Pacific, then try to build over the west, w/ out getting knocked down,  before any prolonged warm ups can occur.  For now, that ain't gonna happen..   That said, at least in these parts, sun angle and associated Solar input via increasing day length should start to influence things shortly..  March may not be a 80's heat fest, but i don't think it will be cold. One look at  today's ECMWF Weekly update shows a gradual trend away from below normal temps. -at least for the Southwest- by mid March ..Since i have no faith in any longer term forecast "suggestion" beyond 6 or 7 days, We'll see what happens.

Current PNA.. Will it dive as we start March?? ( Maybe now that i mention it,  it reverses direction, lol ) I'd like to see in somewhere between the two "X"'es to get a nice, prolonged warm spell.



One thing that might shake things up -at least a little- depending on what it does,  NAO may finally slide towards Neutral, maybe into Neg. territory beyond the start of next month. That might influence what the PNA decides to do ( ..or at least lessen a possible dive ) Might rough up the S.E. ridge a bit too ( Snow starved folks back east can hope ...for something..)



..Just have to see. Regardless, even today's look at the weeklys keeps warmth around in the Southeast through next month.. So yes,  totally possible the ridge may win out / Spring gets a jump start back there.




In ahh nutshell, cool n' unsettled pattern is it, for now..   ...but hopefully not for much longer.




....Because i know some folks will likely fall hook line and sinker by this emerging hype over the next few days,  a reality check 

...And yes, have seen it snow ...at less than 1.5Kft, but not in my back yard,  -on the valley floor out there... PLENTY of times, in Feb. ..and early March, ( ..Sky is falling, right? oOh My! ).  A similar outcome, if it happens, is not that unusual.  Several days of chilly rain -potentially- is a drag though.

Snow flakes at the beach, in Santa Cruz?  Happened a few times too. Don't think it will this time, ..buutt... cuz' no one can see the future, anything is possible..

That said, would be cool to see pictures of a dusting of snow on the ground in San Jose / part of San Jo' i grew up in.. Last time that occurred was in the late 70's, when Avocado and Orange colored Shag Carpets were supposedly stylish.. 🤢

Hype warning: Sky is soon to fall..






Hard Truth Reality says...





Regardless, watching this closely, ..just in case the sky does indeed fall. ( Wonder if a tin foil hat would help keep off that fallen sky at all? )🤔


As for ENSO?  ..Just creeping in on Neutral, or so it appears.. I know what some folks are suggesting for later on, ..but we'll have to wait and see..

Tidbit from today's update on storm surf..



And the current map o' red, blue, n' grey noodles..




.....And lastly,  a nice little side note from my could be brother from another mother, from back in early Jan: 

Rain is good, Italian Cypress - filled suburban monoculture monstrosity is not. 🤣 Couldn't agree more myself.





 

[Silas_Sancona]

As California prepares for ANOTHER Atmospheric River Event, a much less common setup across the Central Valley the last few days ..Today especially, led to something you rarely see on this side of the Rockies..  Legit, California Supercell Thunderstorms.. Complete w/ all the fixins' a storm geek could want ( large hail, wind, heavy rain, Wall clouds and a rotating mesocyclone, funnel clouds, and at least one, confirmed, weak tornado -yesterday, near Sacramento ).

While CA can see " low topped" strong Thunderstorm activity that can exhibit Supercell-esque tendencies from time to time, Storm tops are often lower than ~approx. 25-30Kft, and individual storm cells typically don't last too long.  Storms seen today / yesterday had tops between 33-42Kft and maintained a longer lifespan, which is more typical of moderate-strength Supercell storms on the Plains.

While a bit shorter in height than the stronger of their Plains cousins, Structure-wise, they're pretty much the same beast.. Note the "hook" echo on storm closing in on Fresno on the Radar imagery.. Classic Supercell-type Thunderstorm signature. **Image credit, Daniel Swain**



****Photo Credits to: Collin McCarthy , Jim Tang, who often joins the AZ storm chasing crew during Monsoon season, and  Jeff Boyce ***












I know i'd be cris-crossing the valley if i were there today..  Pretty sweet..

 

[chinandega81]

The freakishly cool winter has extended into Spring now...still well below normal. It's pretty amazing how long this below average weather pattern has lasted, almost all the way from Fall through Spring. Too bad it hasn't brought much rain to the lower deserts of the Southwest. The SE ridge and SW trough have been semi-permanant features with a duration like I haven't seen before....im sure things will change suddenly to blast furnace shortly though.

[Silas_Sancona]

6 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

The freakishly cool winter has extended into Spring now...still well below normal. It's pretty amazing how long this below average weather pattern has lasted, almost all the way from Fall through Spring. Too bad it hasn't brought much rain to the lower deserts of the Southwest. The SE ridge and SW trough have been semi-permanant features with a duration like I haven't seen before....im sure things will change suddenly to blast furnace shortly though.

A trip outside of town, in pretty much any direction reveals: more than enough rain this winter here.. 









As for the cool-ness? ..not really that bad. Plants are happy.  Time to turn it up a notch or two, ..to get the hot season things moving a touch faster though.  NO complaints otherwise.

[enigma99]

21 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

The freakishly cool winter has extended into Spring now...still well below normal. It's pretty amazing how long this below average weather pattern has lasted, almost all the way from Fall through Spring. Too bad it hasn't brought much rain to the lower deserts of the Southwest. The SE ridge and SW trough have been semi-permanant features with a duration like I haven't seen before....im sure things will change suddenly to blast furnace shortly though.

Gfs 2m april 8th at 5pm. Weather pattern isn’t budging for April. Perhaps May might warm up

[Silas_Sancona]

4 hours ago, enigma99 said:

Gfs 2m april 8th at 5pm. Weather pattern isn’t budging for April. Perhaps May might warm up

This is why we never hang on one particular model run..




...86F at 11AM ~local time~, on the 18z at 384 is kind of a tease, lol

[enigma99]

@Silas_Sanconawe’ll see  I am a pessimist this fall/winter/spring

[Silas_Sancona]

39 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

@Silas_Sanconawe’ll see  I am a pessimist this fall/winter/spring

  Totally agree, it has been a pretty crazy winter / ..now sliding into spring..  There were some suggestions back in October from some climatologists i follow that parts of the west might see an "ok" winter,  ..but no one anticipated anything close to what we've seen.

Been watching the model runs tease an end to the overall pattern out here for over a month, only to have it get casually nudged down the road a little more..  May be starting to back off a little here, but things are progressing a little slower than usual regardless.  Rare that the wildflowers and certain Cacti are flowering and the native bees that pollinate them aren't also buzzing about.  Just started seeing them ( the bees ) today.

Definitely gonna have to just wait and see if things really do start moving in the right direction, right after Easter as might be suggested.  No rush to jump from mild / gradually increasing the warmth, right into the frying pan ..here at least,  even though it could be one of those years.   All the snow over the Sierra / wet ground elsewhere out there will slow any rapid warming -for awhile at least-  though. 

I'm already very curious at how next winter may look ..The complete opposite of this year?, even during an El Nino ..if..  a legitimate warm ENSO cycle occurs??  Regardless, if that did happen, at least CA will be set -if it does end up being a dry / mild winter- instead of another wet one.


 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[enigma99]

[enigma99]

And the very next run coming in now is warmer. We’ll just have to wait and see

[Silas_Sancona]

16 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

And the very next run coming in now is warmer. We’ll just have to wait and see

Yep, and that is how it goes..  One day some model runs will lean warmer, than switch tomorrow, than switch again in a day or two.. That is Wx forecasting 101 to the tee..

[Silas_Sancona]

On 3/26/2023 at 10:25 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Yep, and that is how it goes..  One day some model runs will lean warmer, than switch tomorrow, than switch again in a day or two.. That is Wx forecasting 101 to the tee..

Comparison between the last 3 model runs ( 00, 06, and 12Z )  for Apr. 8 at 5PM ( Tidbits GFS timestamp Apr. 9th ) and Apr. 10 (  timestamp Apr. 11th )  at the same time for the Southwestern U.S / CA. 

Compare these runs to yesterday's 00z and 18Z model runs for the same time periods, which were looking cooler.. 

For CA esp, 06Z run is warmest for April 8th..  While the 12Z is warmest for Apr. 10th out there.  Here, 00Z is warmer for the 8th, while both  the 06 and 12Z are pretty darn' toasty for the 10th..

 Comparison of data between several model runs over a day / multiple days ( ..better.. ) is how you'd look for hints of a trend developing...  ...Or more forecasting headaches,  lol..  

While the overall  trend ahead looks like it tilts warmer as we get into next month, - For now at least -,   We'll see what happens. 

...Never throw 100% trust into even the most optimistic-looking, long range model runs.


Apr. 8th









Apr. 10th..  

[Silas_Sancona]

...Cha' Cha" Changes     ....Maybe..

Despite the usual and continued variability in the day to day model runs since my last post,  Finally, it appears there is more confidence in a nice pattern change for California  ..and a good chunk of the rest of the west.. as we get into April,  vs. staying in the same " Ground Hog's Day " kind of annoyingly wet and chilly pattern many areas have been stuck in since  ...forever..., it would seem..

While i'm not about to throw too much confidence into it, morning model runs look warm / toasty ( here ) after this coming week..

Couple days -as they're looking right now- on the Current GFS 12Z..










***Note that the GFS ( as well as other weather models ) can have a warm, or cold bias in their suggested temp data at times.. Especially in the Western U.S.  While pretty reliable, ...compared to Wx modeling data in the past anyway...  even the most advanced super computers used to generate forecasts right now can have trouble resolving the effects of highly variable terrain here and how that effects temperatures.  Some have dubbed our special data resolution hiccup as the " Rockies Effect "  So, in a nutshell,  it may not get quite  as hot -that quickly- as it may look on the maps right now, or in other areas once things warm up. Flip the coin, any cool days might be a touch milder than the data for that time period suggests as well.

That said,  this year being ..this year,  maybe we do flip from mild / warm-ish, to borderline scorching hot ( Here ) Cool/ wet to borderline hot / drier than it has been in other areas, CA. esp..  ..for a few days anyway... on a dime..


As to how long this change may last?  ...you know the answer.. There isn't one.

Regardless, when Daniel Swain is confident enough to post his thoughts on the subject, can be more confident a longer term change is on deck, even if there could still be some cool downs / precip chances tossed in among an overall change to milder/ warmer/ drier -than it has been.. kind of spring pattern ahead here in the West / Southwest.  Only exception to that could be the Pac. N.W.  where the chilly stuff could return / hang out ( ...and further annoy everyone up there ) later.








No matter what we'd prefer, Weather is always going to do what it wants.  We're just along for the ride.



Accuweather's Current 10 Day for Chandler.. Of Note, fairly often, When we flirt w/ the 90's/ see our first 90's+ days, you can be pretty sure areas -outside the desert- will likely be warmer -than it has been in those areas up to that point-  too..  We'll see what happens..

With that, this is my final post for the winter 22/23 thread..

[enigma99]

Spring is more or less canceled now for April, at least for NorCal. Hopefully May will bring some 70s

Edited April 3, 2023 by enigma99

[Silas_Sancona]

18 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

Spring is more or less canceled now for April, at least for NorCal. Hopefully May will bring some 70s

Not sure exactly what you want from " spring" but it doesn't look like doom and gloom out there going forward to me..  Eyes and mind on the positives only 😄

[enigma99]

Latest couple runs are going COLLLD again. I just don’t believe this at all.

 

Highs in the 40s for Southern California on April 17th?