mnorell Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 The new GFS (12z) has dropped on Pivotal Weather and it looks like it is backing off of the harsher temps a little bit. The peninsula now showing the freezing line staying north of the Tampa-Orlando line, and less dire temps south of the I-20. Of course it's still a long way out and things can change on a dime with these models... One thing I learned while living in southern Mississippi was that the most damaging cold periods seem to require a "priming" of the land to the north with copious snow/ice covering the ground for the thousands of miles the air must traverse into the subtropics. In 2010 this was very evident and of course it was like a long blitzkrieg. But this year has been ridiculously mild/warm in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and unless I missed something, there is rather little of this priming available, at least on the early portion of the upcoming period. Perhaps that bodes well for the southernmost tier in this blast of polar air. Of course if it persists that could change and be very bad for later January or February. Can someone chime in on whether the '83/'85/'89/'96 events had this feature distinguishing their assaults? Also I assume there has been a decent amount of tender new growth throughout FL with this anomalously warm autumn, which is a hallmark of worse-than-normal plant damage in late-season freezes there... 3 Michael Norell Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 293 ft | z10a | avg Jan 44/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310 previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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