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Florida Winter 2022-2023


JLM

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Recorded 36.1F in my yard last night here in coastal NW FL. Forecasted to get down to just 46F tonight. 

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For this morning, my weather underground lows are the following:

40.3F

39F

42.6F

35.1F

35.1F

and there was a 33.6F not too far away, also there were 30F to 32F readings just west of I-95 from where I'm at. 

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Brevard County, Fl

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My sensors recorded 34F here.  The airport had 36F for a low on the hourly reports.  This event was a little more sporadic, with minimums from 33F-41F in my neck of the woods, and a minimum of 30F at one station near the airport.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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I came in at 39F this morning.  Frost on cars and rooftops. Hopefully this is the end. Looks good through end of month right now. 

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1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

My sensors recorded 34F here.  The airport had 36F for a low on the hourly reports.  This event was a little more sporadic, with minimums from 33F-41F in my neck of the woods, and a minimum of 30F at one station near the airport.

Do you agree this is mostly due to thermometer placement instead of actual climate differences? 

.

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My lows were 33-34f. The thermometer in the font only got down to 41f, further highlighting the benefits of planting close to the south side of your house. (I need to add in a smaller stature z10 palm there.)

B56115D3-0D8E-43EB-86DC-29D824485024.thumb.png.f0e7b8d82654e851f9a80f06541456d5.png

Edited by RedRabbit

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I hit 38 and 37F 20230116_072218.thumb.jpg.77dcc6056cb5c9529c62a6dba5a1d19e.jpg

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Looking for:  crytostachys hybrids, Pseudophoenix sargentii Leucothrinax morrisii, livingstona canarensis

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A lot of frost today. Temp around 32. 
 

notice the lack of frost near the mule palm/mulch/driveway. Love heat sources lol. 

5B6E265A-E319-401F-87EB-6D26BAF4F0AB.jpeg

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9 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I came in at 39F this morning.  Frost on cars and rooftops. Hopefully this is the end. Looks good through end of month right now. 

There was a little on the cars early this morning but none on the roof.  That's in contrast to the day before where the entire roof had frost.  Only 2 more months until spring 😬

7 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Do you agree this is mostly due to thermometer placement instead of actual climate differences? 

In most cases, yes.  That said, I've noted a few stations close by that are mounted on the side of a house or on a roof that recorded a lower temperature than I did here, even though they should record elevated temperatures.  You hit the nail on the head a while back in that its an inexact science, at best.

Probably a bigger concern from my end has been overall consistency.  As examples, I posted earlier in this thread about 2 airports in particular where the personal weather stations in close proximity do not mirror the airport they are near.  Plant City (KPCM) and Orlando Executive (KORL) are two that I posted, but I've seen it happen at other airports as well.  Just as a recent example, the minimum reading at KORL last night was 40F.

20230116_2140_KORL_min.jpg.0fd9c2bed75a8ef4df870c7bfc1cb2ed.jpg

If I take a look at a few PWS near there on WUnderground, here are the lows (note KFLORLAN622 is right next to a paved street) :

Looking at our airport, the closest station I see broadcasting near our airport (36F) is ~2 miles away from the sensor, so not as close proximity as the KORL stations :

Typically, poorly sited stations record elevated temperatures (too high, near a surface that absorbs + releases heat, under canopy, etc.).  If the siting affects the temperature, I would expect it to be elevated rather than depressed, but that shows what I know.  The only variable I could think of that would depress the night time temperature is if they placed the sensor in a low lying area compared to the rest of their property.  Could you think of any other siting issues that would cause a depressed reading?

I've been doing some independent data recording when the chance arises.  Typically, a red liquid thermometer should be the gold standard and a properly calibrated sensor should march in lockstep with it.  It seemed to work here, so I took one of each to the airport and took hourly records.  The electronic sensor seemed to match the airport hourly records for the most part, but the red liquid thermometer was showing significantly lower temperatures the entire time (-4F).  I have AmbientWeather, AcuRite, and Avantek sensors available for my tests, but nothing conclusive on one or the other working better.  My work on that is still not complete.

The numbers @pj_orlando_z9b posts are very consistent with KMCO (38F).   That might be because he has a really nice piece of hardware compared to the AcuRite and AmbientWeather stations that are pervasive on Weather Underground. 

Thank you for sharing AmbientWeather.net!  This is a great resource since it eliminates the variable of different brands.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Coldest night for the next 7 days is 45F, warmest day(s) in the forecast is 76F. Ill take it.

image.png.b212c5486f748ae6280898674b3ead04.png

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

There was a little on the cars early this morning but none on the roof.  That's in contrast to the day before where the entire roof had frost.  Only 2 more months until spring 😬

In most cases, yes.  That said, I've noted a few stations close by that are mounted on the side of a house or on a roof that recorded a lower temperature than I did here, even though they should record elevated temperatures.  You hit the nail on the head a while back in that its an inexact science, at best.

Probably a bigger concern from my end has been overall consistency.  As examples, I posted earlier in this thread about 2 airports in particular where the personal weather stations in close proximity do not mirror the airport they are near.  Plant City (KPCM) and Orlando Executive (KORL) are two that I posted, but I've seen it happen at other airports as well.  Just as a recent example, the minimum reading at KORL last night was 40F.

20230116_2140_KORL_min.jpg.0fd9c2bed75a8ef4df870c7bfc1cb2ed.jpg

If I take a look at a few PWS near there on WUnderground, here are the lows (note KFLORLAN622 is right next to a paved street) :

Looking at our airport, the closest station I see broadcasting near our airport (36F) is ~2 miles away from the sensor, so not as close proximity as the KORL stations :

Typically, poorly sited stations record elevated temperatures (too high, near a surface that absorbs + releases heat, under canopy, etc.).  If the siting affects the temperature, I would expect it to be elevated rather than depressed, but that shows what I know.  The only variable I could think of that would depress the night time temperature is if they placed the sensor in a low lying area compared to the rest of their property.  Could you think of any other siting issues that would cause a depressed reading?

I've been doing some independent data recording when the chance arises.  Typically, a red liquid thermometer should be the gold standard and a properly calibrated sensor should march in lockstep with it.  It seemed to work here, so I took one of each to the airport and took hourly records.  The electronic sensor seemed to match the airport hourly records for the most part, but the red liquid thermometer was showing significantly lower temperatures the entire time (-4F).  I have AmbientWeather, AcuRite, and Avantek sensors available for my tests, but nothing conclusive on one or the other working better.  My work on that is still not complete.

The numbers @pj_orlando_z9b posts are very consistent with KMCO (38F).   That might be because he has a really nice piece of hardware compared to the AcuRite and AmbientWeather stations that are pervasive on Weather Underground. 

Thank you for sharing AmbientWeather.net!  This is a great resource since it eliminates the variable of different brands.

There could be some siting issues causing depressed readings, but for Orlando it looks like the station average was somewhere around 36f and the airport had 39f as the low. TPA seems to have the same issues.

I’m not sure what’s going on. It could be something with the airport’s radiation shield, a less sensitive thermometer, or their sampling methodology. Or they’re both getting a lot of help from the runways, which is probably the case with TPA. We see pretty consistently that airports record higher temperatures than home stations so it would be a nice mystery to figure out. 

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The airport issue described by Kinzy is interesting and true. Our official site is our airport, PBIA. It is always on the low side, particularly during our cool season.

I checked out its location. It is on the far western side of the airport. It receives no protection from northerly winds. It is best described as in an open field absent any vegetation and far away from any factor that could provide a hint of warming. During our cool season, stations in PB record low temperatures 3-7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.

For an area that promotes itself as a tourist destination during the cooler months, this creates an interesting paradigm!

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What you look for is what is looking

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Not a forecast...

But just giving a heads up that the pattern could be conducive for some below average, cold temperatures in the state of FL at the very end of January. This is one of many instances of computer models and guidance currently catching onto a potential return of a colder pattern.

 

 

 

Edited by Matthew92
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I see some broken Queen fronds in my future 😬

image.png.ba4c8aa81752f568d8b73ccbaf097b4e.png

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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On 1/15/2023 at 12:12 PM, Matthew92 said:

So this is the way I see it: much of the time FL sees its first major cold (hard freeze in North/North-Central FL, light freeze in Central FL), it is in January. Then there's a big warmup in February where many people get spring fever and so many plants try to leaf out and bloom: but then the pattern cycles back and we get a cold snap in March. However, being that late, usually only North FL sees freezing temps (recent notable examples include March 2018 and March 2022) as the sun has gotten high enough/weather patterns modified enough that it is never a threat for a significant hard freeze event much anywhere in the state.

Hit the nail on the head. I used to love February heat waves for my weather monitoring but now I'm changing my mind since I know they lead to those dumb backloaded Marches. Ironically last winter I was wishing hard for a February heatwave and got one, but my weather monitoring areas paid the price on March 12-13.🙃

Funny enough, although March 2022 cold snap was widespread, years like 2017 and 2018 seemed to leave Texas and Louisiana well alone to the point that places up to Dallas had early January-mid February last frosts and a lowest March temperature of 4C. It would be fun to see that happen throughout the Southeast, great last frost monitoring in Florida etc!😀

I'm hoping for a March 2020 repeat this year: that was the only reasonably warm February I know of which did not lead to a massive March backload like 2018, 2022, etc. February 2015 would also (mostly) be nice to repeat, bad as it was for February weather monitoring, because it seems starting at Tallahassee and heading east, February 20-21 last frosts were the norm as the cold was used up. Even places as far north and inland as Albany and Augusta got February 21 last frosts.

TL;DR: Tired of seeing March backloads in weather monitoring from these false hope February heat waves. Let's see North Florida get a plenty of January-February last frosts!

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On 1/16/2023 at 10:04 PM, kinzyjr said:

There was a little on the cars early this morning but none on the roof.  That's in contrast to the day before where the entire roof had frost.  Only 2 more months until spring 😬

So glad to see another user of astronomical seasons instead of those too-widely-used meteorological seasons that don't take daylight into account nearly as well.😀😅

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On 1/8/2023 at 6:48 PM, Can't think of username said:

As for the present, I'm wondering how the cold hole Tallahassee airport will do with regards to last frosts. Being a Southeast US weather enthusiast monitoring first and last frosts is a very big winter event for me, and despite FSU Tallahassee being my main site to monitor I'm hoping the airport can get some kind of 'compensation' for that freak October 20 2022 first frost.
Compensation meaning an earlier than normal last frost at least as early as February.  It seems to be somewhat uncommon for them given that they're of course a cold hole, but recent February last frosts that would be great compensation if they were repeated are February 14 2012, February 20 2015, and February 28 2014/2016/2020. 

If all the stars align they might even break their all time record for earliest last frost. That would be January 2 1949, and they haven't had frost since December 28, so currently they have a shot at breaking it and it would be pretty awesome compensation if they did!😃
 

As it turns out no way that will happen this year lol. Still a chance for a January or February last frost though!

Speaking of Tallahassee, on the 19th the cold hole airport ended up getting to 29C and broke the all time January record high (not such a cold hole then😁), while FSU Tallahassee ended up 2C cooler at 27C (and this also happened last January when the airport tied the previous 28C record high but FSU only got to 26C). This leads me to believe that during hot weather, the sandy soil of the otherwise cold hole airport heats it up more than anything FSU has going for it, despite the higher elevation that helps FSU not be a cold hole.

Edited by Can't think of username
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Yes, I hope we get enough cold temps in Feb so that everything waits to grow/leaf out/bloom until the proper time later in March. That's one thing I really dislike about this climate is how fickle temperatures are and cause things to grow too early only to be potentially damaged in late frosts/freezes. 

If I continue to live here and have my own house one day: I would like much of my landscaping to be plants and trees that are "sensible" and wait until the right time to resume growth in spring, or are evergreen and aren't affected either way. Trees like Nuttall, Shumard, and Post Oak, Winged and Chinese Elm, Crepe Myrtle, Sycamore, Sweetgum, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Dogwood (among many others) are not fazed by February heat waves and wait until March to leaf out.

Trees that are horrible in leafing or flowering way too early are Citrus, Saucer Magnolia, Red Maple, and anything semi-tropical.

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4 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Red Maple, and anything semi-tropical.

lol, you mentioned red maple and I already see the red buds on them here, surely before anything like sweetgum blooms, they can't even wait until the end of January. 

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10 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Trees that are horrible in leafing or flowering way too early are Citrus, Saucer Magnolia, Red Maple, and anything semi-tropical.

Except for citrus, ive seen everything else in this list that is flowering. Some red maples around here are in full flowering mode especially around Hwy 90. The saucer magnolias are covered in flowers, and i do have canna lilies that are poking up in between the dead stalks that i still havent cleaned up.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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On 1/20/2023 at 10:38 PM, JLM said:

I see some broken Queen fronds in my future 😬

image.png.ba4c8aa81752f568d8b73ccbaf097b4e.png

This prediction verified unfortunately. These fronds are coming off this afternoon as they are starting to mold.

IMG_20230125_161531751_HDR.jpg

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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There are not really any signals that im seeing that suggests any freezing temperatures for the state for the rest of the month and going into the first week of February.

Going through February, the pattern supports warmer than average temperatures for February with a ridge stationed over the Southeast blocking any major cold intrusions. 

I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, even if the end of February ends up being cold (there is no guarantee for warmer or colder)

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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23 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I’m calling it, winter is over!

🤞😬

Let's hope so.  While it hasn't technically gone "below average" in the yard, I can live without that happening.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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On 1/27/2023 at 9:39 PM, RedRabbit said:

I’m calling it, winter is over!

The kiss of death. 

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Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

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2 hours ago, Alan_Tampa said:

The kiss of death. 

I pulled up the 10-day expecting to see:

  • 80/60
  • 80/60
  • 80/60
  • 40/25
  • 37/23
  • 55/29
  • 65/40
  • 70/45
  • 80/60
  • 82/65

... but thankfully not in the immediate future.

1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

Well I just pulled all the winter prep stuff out of the front yard so I hope I didn't jinx us all….

Now we have a choice of scapegoats ;)

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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On 1/27/2023 at 9:39 PM, RedRabbit said:

I’m calling it, winter is over!

To elaborate on this a bit, February is forecast to be above average.

2853D01A-30E1-41D6-9DF8-FB143A30D324.thumb.jpeg.43a3f0a16078edb82fd99fb1586100d1.jpeg

So February is looking pretty good and the odds of a freeze in March are slim.


TLDR: Winter is over. Plus, I recorded 87f today so it sure feels like winter is over.

Edited by RedRabbit
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As Alan said. Do not tempt Mother Nature and February can be a wild and woolly winter month! That stated, I am pulling for you!

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What you look for is what is looking

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Im usually not completely out of the woods until Easter. Seems like we have gotten a light freeze or at least some frost around that time for the past few years. On Valentines Day im gonna show my plants some love by ridding all plants of anything thats dead (a local nursery told me not to do it now, to wait until then), i will start fertilizing March 1st. Im 110% ready for Spring.

Im stumped about my citrus though, the tree has never taken cold this hard before, ever. I guess we wait to see what comes back and what doesnt. If we get an early Spring, that might be a good thing.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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The Arctic Oscillation looks to be neutral to positive so above normal temps are more likely.  See what the dip in mid December did to us?   Negative AO is a bad, bad thing.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

 

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Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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3 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The Arctic Oscillation looks to be neutral to positive so above normal temps are more likely.  See what the dip in mid December did to us?   Negative AO is a bad, bad thing.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

 

I hope so, here in Europe I'm concerned the winds might reverse mid February.

Edited by Foxpalms
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I went ahead and deployed my bag of Florikan palm blend for my first half of the year feeding. 

since it’s timed release, it’ll just break down as temperatures and conditions warrant. I’m loving this weather. 

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Well im not waiting until Valentines Day to clean everything off, im doing it this weekend. Temperatures have been consistently in the 70's lately, and there will only be one day of a high in the 50's and a low in the 30's before temperatures rebound going into next week. 

I will wait until March to fertilize though.

Ill take a pic of the neighbor's maple tree tomorrow, its putting on quite the show right now!

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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Spring is practically here.

IMG_20230202_072016539_HDR.jpg

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 2 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 3 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 8 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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On 12/23/2022 at 10:15 PM, RedRabbit said:

Here are a few microclimates I’ll be watching to see how they hold up:

- Anna Maria Island… Evidence of 10b/11a?

- St. Pete: Venetian Isles, Tropical Shores… How solid might they be at 10b?

- West side of Lake Tarpon… More evidence it’s a solid 10a.

- Tampa: Davis Island, Ballast Point… Warmest spot in Tampa?

- Orlando: Belle Isle… More evidence it’s really 10a.

- Winter Garden… Possibly 10a due to the lake?

- Jacksonville, east side of St. John’s river… Solid 9b?

- St. Simons Island, East Beach… Solid 9b?

- North Captiva / Useppa (if any stations are left)… 11a?

 

Anna Maria is nice overall, but depending on the benchmark for 10b/11a, that might be ambitious.  At 200 Coconut Ave on the west side of the island, they had a quad-planting of coconuts at the house at the turn in Dec 2007.

20230204_AnnaMaria_Dec2007.jpg.c2e55b773b1850cf6d7b18cc57cfa738.jpg

After the January 2010 and December 2010 freezes, the best one was heavily damaged and at least one perished.  The other two may have been removed after the January freeze or sometime before.  We wouldn't be able to verify it now.

20230204_AnnaMaria_Jul2011.jpg.98e9820bd15c9e26fe7e7f6194ce566b.jpg

The most current photo looks pretty good.  Full recovery from any of the events since then.

20230204_AnnaMaria_Mar2021.jpg.b6c4764d9c65afbd96b9e1e56e003d28.jpg

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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