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Southern Hemisphere Growing Season 22/23


Tyrone

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It was a sunny 30C yesterday. Cloudy this morning but depending on the forecast we are going for anything from 28C to 32C today. It will depend on the timing of the sea breeze. With no real rain the irrigation is earning its keep. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Warm and muggy today, even had a few spits of rain on the windscreen yesterday, just enough to make bloody horrible followed by a warm humid night. Heading for 35c today but it's quite an unpleasant 35c. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Well on this day last year we had that stupidly hot day where we hit 43.5C. Today was positively mild with 30.9C and peak dewpoint of 20C. Now at sundown there is the rumble of thunder and fork lightening. Great night to sit back with a beer and enjoy it. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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How is Auckland going now? Is life starting to go back to normal yet, or is it total chaos?

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

How is Auckland going now? Is life starting to go back to normal yet, or is it total chaos?

I live 1.5hrs drive South and have not been there since the floods, but there are something like 250 homes red stickered I.e. do not enter and about 4000 yellow, as in safe to enter but not inhabitable. For those lucky enough that homes did not flood, life will be pretty much back to normal soon apart from a few roads closed, but for the unlucky will take most of the year to sort out. 

 

 

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The Southwest wind and some vaguely normal weather has finally returned. Just passing though the redeveloped Hamilton city zoo carpark and someone in charge of the design really likes Nikau palms ( has good taste then ) and has put in 30 to 50 odd. They would have loved all the rain during Jan, looking very lush.

 

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56 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

I live 1.5hrs drive South and have not been there since the floods, but there are something like 250 homes red stickered I.e. do not enter and about 4000 yellow, as in safe to enter but not inhabitable. For those lucky enough that homes did not flood, life will be pretty much back to normal soon apart from a few roads closed, but for the unlucky will take most of the year to sort out. 

 

 

OK. I’ve been checking the news every day. I just saw too that a cyclone is expected to form and possibly hit the north island, although it’s likely too early to actually say that with any real certainty. However I ran a couple of models on windy.com and they both seem to more or less agree. I hope it just slips past or a high comes into the region and disassembles it. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cbmnz said:

The Southwest wind and some vaguely normal weather has finally returned. Just passing though the redeveloped Hamilton city zoo carpark and someone in charge of the design really likes Nikau palms ( has good taste then ) and has put in 30 to 50 odd. They would have loved all the rain during Jan, looking very lush.

 

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Looks really nice. Wish we could get nikaus that size here and the councils planted them in central London and other mild spots. For now I will have to wait untill these get bigger before I plant some around parts of London. Grown from seed collected on the Scilly isles.

Screenshot_20230206-051122719 (1).jpg

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4 hours ago, Tyrone said:

OK. I’ve been checking the news every day. I just saw too that a cyclone is expected to form and possibly hit the north island, although it’s likely too early to actually say that with any real certainty. However I ran a couple of models on windy.com and they both seem to more or less agree. I hope it just slips past or a high comes into the region and disassembles it. 

Yes. Been watching that. Possibly a little in denial right now, as if the GFS is correct would be the worst direct strike from a cyclone since maybe the 1960's. Given the current fragile state of the ground.. prefer not to think about that. 

However the GFS seems do that quite often, showing a depression in the 960s or 970s passing over but it never (normally) happens,it either passes to the North and goes to the TC graveyard of the empty Pacific to the East,  or fills in to 985-990 or so before crossing.

I'm not liking however, that the EC model as well, has it coming close enough to do damage.

 

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3 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Looks really nice. Wish we could get nikaus that size here and the councils planted them in central London and other mild spots. For now I will have to wait untill these get bigger before I plant some around parts of London. Grown from seed collected on the Scilly isles.

Screenshot_20230206-051122719 (1).jpg

The species has for all purposes, no minimum heat or strong sunlight requirements, just a fairly cliff edge minimum temp tolerance of -4C or so. So if London only dropped to -3C minimum during the bad freeze this year, can't see why they would not grow there.  There must have been events in the 20th century that none could survive however, otherwise there would be the odd mature one around there now as can't believe they would not have been tried many times.

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35 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

The species has for all purposes, no minimum heat or strong sunlight requirements, just a fairly cliff edge minimum temp tolerance of -4C or so. So if London only dropped to -3C minimum during the bad freeze this year, can't see why they would not grow there.  There must have been events in the 20th century that none could survive however, otherwise there would be the odd mature one around there now as can't believe they would not have been tried many times.

Low here in central London was -2c in the coldest part of the garden and the warmest parts of central London only went down to -1c and we had the coldest night since the 1980s. Most winters are much milder. Even after the December freeze, birds of paradise, howea forsteriana, cannas, monstera deliciosa were undamaged and even bougainvillea was still in flower. Nikaus are very uncommon in the UK and whislt they have been tried in Cornwall and have done well in costal locations I think I'm the first person to try them here in central London.  At least I have never heard of anyone trying them in central London maybe someone has in the outskirts but here it's a completely different climate to the outskirts. London Heathrow (outskirts) zone 9a most winters, went down to -8.4c one night this winter compared to -1/2c in central London. I think they may also have some growing in ventnor zone 10a on the isle of wight. What I do find concerning though for Nikaus is when we have a low of 28c one night and a high the next day over 40c like we did last July.

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6 hours ago, Tyrone said:

OK. I’ve been checking the news every day. I just saw too that a cyclone is expected to form and possibly hit the north island, although it’s likely too early to actually say that with any real certainty. However I ran a couple of models on windy.com and they both seem to more or less agree. I hope it just slips past or a high comes into the region and disassembles it. 

Are the cyclones able to hit NZ because the ocean temperature not too much further north is warm despite the fact around new Zealand the waters are much cooler? Since we get the tail end of hurricane here brought up by the Jetstream but obviously it's not a hurricane by the time it arrives here and the the sea temperature in Auckland is similar to here for around August 6th. I presume it just has way too much cool ocean with cooler temperatures to travel across untill the point it reaches here. The ex hurricanes can still have higher wind speeds than a cat 1 hurricane in parts of the UK, luckily not in London as we are in the east and all the buildings help reduce wind speeds.

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2 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Yes. Been watching that. Possibly a little in denial right now, as if the GFS is correct would be the worst direct strike from a cyclone since maybe the 1960's. Given the current fragile state of the ground.. prefer not to think about that. 

However the GFS seems do that quite often, showing a depression in the 960s or 970s passing over but it never (normally) happens,it either passes to the North and goes to the TC graveyard of the empty Pacific to the East,  or fills in to 985-990 or so before crossing.

I'm not liking however, that the EC model as well, has it coming close enough to do damage.

 

I’m going to be watching that one closely and holding my breath for NZ. I hope the thing just falls apart. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Well we’ve been having some really humid weather lately. Yesterday was 29C with clouds and haze and dewpoints as high as 20C. The night before last, we had a minimum of 19.2C but most of the night sat around 20, 21C with even a brief shower of very heavy tropical size drops on the roof which woke me up. Last night we had a min of 18.4C but humidity sat at 94-96% all night and it rained briefly so everything this morning is damp. In fact it’s drissling at the moment and feels like we are in the clouds at 1000m asl in the subtropics somewhere. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Are the cyclones able to hit NZ because the ocean temperature not too much further north is warm despite the fact around new Zealand the waters are much cooler? Since we get the tail end of hurricane here brought up by the Jetstream but obviously it's not a hurricane by the time it arrives here and the the sea temperature in Auckland is similar to here for around August 6th. I presume it just has way too much cool ocean with cooler temperatures to travel across untill the point it reaches here. The ex hurricanes can still have higher wind speeds than a cat 1 hurricane in parts of the UK, luckily not in London as we are in the east and all the buildings help reduce wind speeds.

I am no expert are really just parroting what I have read  and seen in videos. A TC needs a min SST of 26C to maintain its tropical (warm core, eye with an eyewall) structure, Northern NZ SST reach 23C max. Even Norfolk Island SST normally don't quite  reach 26C, so all cyclones lose their tropical structure from Norfolk island   (29S) downwards. All other factors neutral this change to ex-tropical weakens the storm, however for some of them, if the jetstream is in the right place, they start to strengthen again.  Even if after re-deepening the central pressure is lower than when the storm was a TC (which can happen), it's not the same, now a cold core low with no eye or eyewall, the winds are more spread out evenly, so nowhere gets hit with the devastating eyewall , but still can do plenty of damage.

I believe the situation is similar for the UK, because of the gulf stream, TC can retain tropical structure up to 40N or so, which somewhat compensates for the much higher latitude of UK. It does not matter however, if the low starts to strengthen with the jetstream it can get deeper and deeper the higher up in latitude it goes. Being  higher latitude can mean you get hit worse.

 

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The models have taken a turn for the worst, I have never seen the models so tightly aligned on an event of this magnitude, so far out. Not alot can do to prepare other than tie down some of my shadecloth structures when time comes and be prepared for a decent time without power.

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2 hours ago, cbmnz said:

The models have taken a turn for the worst, I have never seen the models so tightly aligned on an event of this magnitude, so far out. Not alot can do to prepare other than tie down some of my shadecloth structures when time comes and be prepared for a decent time without power.

Ive just been looking at exactly that and it's ominous. Norfolk Island in every model gets king hit every time too. I think all you guys can do is use the good weather you have left to make emergency plans, get emergency supplies, clean up what you can, get to higher ground and dig in for a wild 4 days starting on Saturday. Expect the worst and hope for the best.

I'm really gutted too because I was planning a trip across the Tasman next month and we may have to cancel now. I don't know how tourist ready NZ will be after this one. 

Let's hope the models swing to a milder outcome very soon. If not, keep an eye on Norfolk Island as that will give you some sort of indication as to how bad it will be once it comes near NZ. 

😩😪

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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It's just been named Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Gabrielle isn’t really changing course, so far. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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I was worried something like this might happen after that last lot of rain. It's not uncommon for weather to follow the same pattern for a few weeks. Hopefully it will move over faster than that last low or change direction still.  We've got to prepare and stay safe out there. 

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Really benign weather here at the moment under a high pressure zone. Beautiful blue skies today and a top of 25C.

Looking at TC Gabrielle, two of the models now have the eye missing NZ, while two have it heading to the mainland. Not really far enough movement though to be comforting. How the high pressure ridge to the east performs will be the big key on the day. Hopefully it loses pressure and Gabrielle sails past with only minimal impact to NZ. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Bananas before they get shredded.  Last couple of days fine and sunny.  Everything is calm locally, no rush on anything.  I think some people are not really registering what is coming.  This is a 960hpa low, not the 980 or 990s that we are used to. Best chance of most densely populated area of country to avoid worst was for centre to go East but EC brought it back again this morning after teasing last night that it might do that.

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It’s been downgraded to a cat 2 this morning and moving in on Norfolk Island. I just read that they’ve only had 4 cyclones come close in the last 40 years. Normally they’re downgraded to a tropical low by the time they come near the island. Also no buildings are built to a cyclone code either.

It’s going to be a tense few days as this all pans out. I hope people stay safe and come through this ok. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It’s been downgraded to a cat 2 this morning and moving in on Norfolk Island. I just read that they’ve only had 4 cyclones come close in the last 40 years. Normally they’re downgraded to a tropical low by the time they come near the island. Also no buildings are built to a cyclone code either.

It’s going to be a tense few days as this all pans out. I hope people stay safe and come through this ok. 

Yeah it's tense with half slipped slips waiting to cause mayhem at my place! Spent the afternoon clearing drains and culverts as council don't seem to do any maintenance these days!  Three of my neighbours have diggers so it was quite a street party.

 

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Gabrielle is only a few hours away from Norfolk Is and is likely to make a direct hit. They've already recorded winds of just over 100 kph on the island. Winds at the centre are still at 110 kph, gusting to 155 kph. But strong wind shear and dry air along with lower sea temperatures are causing it havoc. It's likely now that Gabrielle has been "decapitated", the upper circulation separated from the low level circulation. It's still expected to pass over Norfolk Is at the intensity of a Cat 2 TC. Storm force winds (89 kph to 102 kph) extend about 240 kms out from the centre. It'll take a while for this system to blow itself out.

 

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TC Gabrielle is now a tropical low and damage on Norfolk Island has been less than expected with the island missing the worst of the cat 2 system thankfully. Now it’s heading for NZ. Was just reading that a peak wind gust of 133kmh at Cape Reinga has been recorded and Northland is on a red alert. 

The chance that it may just drift past NZ has now gone I think. It looks like it will just hang around the Great Barrier Island, Coramandel, Bay of Plenty area for a while too. That’s a bit different to the situation with Norfolk Island where although it was stronger and still a cat 2 it basically sailed along at full speed. 

All the best to our NZ friends. Take care. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Still have power and no damage so far. Just need to get though this evening when the20230213_122033.thumb.jpg.7f6737ca4f517db6fdab91b3bfaf1f39.jpg low deepens and gets close to Auckland. Looks like ironically the fact that low will be so close when it deepens will spare the worst wind. Rain will be heavy though.

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1 hour ago, cbmnz said:

Still have power and no damage so far. Just need to get though this evening when the20230213_122033.thumb.jpg.7f6737ca4f517db6fdab91b3bfaf1f39.jpg low deepens and gets close to Auckland. Looks like ironically the fact that low will be so close when it deepens will spare the worst wind. Rain will be heavy though.

It's quite a complex system to forecast because NZ is just so mountainous. Hopefully your place somehow escapes the worst of the wind and rain and you just sail through it. 

I'm looking into cancelling our NZ trip now. It kind of seems wrong to attend an area where local people have been displaced from their damaged homes and we are taking the motel rooms that the locals need to live in temporarily. That's even if the rooms we booked aren't damaged as well. I see Whangarei is expecting a storm surge into the middle of town. Also most of the tracks and walk trails we wanted to see will probably be closed due to land slips and downed trees and washed away bridges etc, or just haven't been assessed yet by the authorities to see if they are safe and remain closed. 

Lots of power outages and downed lines in the Northland area. They may be out for ages, as you can't put lines back up when this weather is around. Cell towers are going down too as they sustain damage, or the battery backup dies once the power goes out. The trouble is, in an emergency the towers get more use not less, so they will go out quickly once the power dies. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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My power just came back on,  after 28 hours.  Wind gusts were strongest through  Sunday night - early Monday morning

Today was surprisingly,  not that windy at all. but some  rain has settled in for few hours now, not heavy rain luckily .

 

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1 hour ago, PalmCode said:

My power just came back on,  after 28 hours.  Wind gusts were strongest through  Sunday night - early Monday morning

Today was surprisingly,  not that windy at all. but some  rain has settled in for few hours now, not heavy rain luckily .

 

I'm glad your powers back on. Have you had any damage? I think you are close enough to the central low part now that the wind has backed off a bit.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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1 hour ago, PalmCode said:

My power just came back on,  after 28 hours.  Wind gusts were strongest through  Sunday night - early Monday morning

Today was surprisingly,  not that windy at all. but some  rain has settled in for few hours now, not heavy rain luckily .

 

Kicking off now though(9pm) eh!  Pressure down the 960 s and dropping and wind piling on.  Rain not super heavy but next few hours will be the most intense. Stay safe guys.

 

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1 hour ago, PalmCode said:

My power just came back on,  after 28 hours.  Wind gusts were strongest through  Sunday night - early Monday morning

Today was surprisingly,  not that windy at all. but some  rain has settled in for few hours now, not heavy rain luckily .

 

Hope your power stays on. Amazingly power has not gone off for me despite since about 5pm the strongest winds since have lived at this address which is since 2002. Still give it 50/50 of going off overnight though.

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Second spears of the summer opening on the chathams nikau now. First ones opened in Dec. Getting a few green leaf hoppers. 

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Looks like ex TC Gabrielle has slowed and isnt moving away for another 12 hours or so.  Hope east coast/cape and everyone else is doing ok! 

Screenshot_20230214-102429_Windy.jpg

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Horrible night but no major damage at mine. Part of back fence came down, can fix it. Spears on some palms prematurely opened by wind. At least mature queen and Kauri tree which are large and close enough to house to do real damage if fell, stood up to it well. A little bit of sun now and sounds of distant chainsaws everywhere.

 

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7 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Awful things happening in other parts of the country,  count myself lucky.

The images coming out of NZ are incredible at the moment. Large amounts of devastation. Gabrielle won't be forgotten. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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