North American Monsoon 2022: Wet Monsoon, Act #2? ..Realistic Optimism

[Silas_Sancona]

In the Southwest, we wait all year,  for the best time of the year..  hating the heat that precedes it, but looking forward to the magic it can bring once the rains begin..  This is the Monsoon..  The most unique of weather patterns in the North American subtropics.

***For anyone curious, i'll defer further insight into the detailed details of exactly what the North American Monsoon is  to looking through past year's threads here***. 

That said, in a nutshell, the word " Monsoon "  ..a word of Arabic origin  refers to a seasonal reversal of wind direction.. one that often brings rain and raised humidity..  While used too often by miss informed people, the word " Monsoon " does not refer to an individual storm event..

Here in the Southwestern U.S. and neighboring Mexico, this " seasonal wind change " brings critical amounts of annual precipitation to many areas, particularly those parts of the state / region that see little or no winter precip.  When wet, starkly dry land is suddenly turned to lush horizons of glowing emerald green, almost overnight. Seemingly lifeless stretches of the Sonoran Desert are suddenly full of life.  Canyon Oasis ..and many a backyard.. become lush, almost tropical - like gardens full of plants and animals that only appear - or look their best -  after the rains have arrived.. 

This was the scene last year when Arizona in particular experienced one of our wettest Monsoons on record.  To say past accounts i'd read about describing the view of a wet summer here as magical, is putting it mildly.. Only a warm, wet winter in California comes close to the experience of the desert after a wet summer..

If we're lucky this year, we could enjoy an encore..  There is optimism for it.. and in fact, it is looking like the season will start off a bit early, like last year..  At the same time, one must accept the reality that the monsoon can be a fickle thing and what may start off looking good, can end up dry.. or soak one part of the state while other areas get dust.  While the reverse can occur, " late starts " often signal a dry -overall- season..

This year, we'll see how things progress..

While the Nat. Wx's definition of the season started yesterday and runs until the end of September, many old timers use the " Dew Point Rule" ..IE: Monsoon Season doesn't start until the Dew Points have been above 55deg for 3 consecutive days in a row..  Both " ideas " make sense, though the dew point rule is a more concrete signal adequate moisture  for rain and storms had arrived ..at least for that moisture surge event..

A look at how past years have stacked up from the " old rule perspective " provided by local forecaster Matt Pace back on the 12th.




As it stands, moisture that will help spark the coming weekends' " opening Act " is quickly surging north from Mexico, the Gulf of CA. with extra moisture being pulled west from the Gulf of Mexico. There is also a Hurricane ( Blas ) approaching the southern tip of Baja that will add a little extra fuel to the fire, so to say.. as it swipes left of baja, out into the Pacific.

In this weekends situation, moisture is being squeezed between the large central Plains High pressure anchored  over most of the country, and a sharp trough of low pressure nudging up against the PAC. N.W.  Towards the end of the season, a similar set up would be considered a " Transitional Season Event " IE:  When the subtropical, 4- corners / Central Plains High begins to retreat back into Mexico / the Caribbean for the year as the Polar jet stream starts to sag further south.

While the exact placement of who gets a few good showers/ storms  this weekend continues to waffle a bit, pretty much everyone from Phoenix east should see at least .05" - .10"  Higher terrain will obviously do better than the deserts, for now at least..

Mid day COD true color view of S. AZ/ N.M. and Mexico (  Sonora in particular ) Can see moisture rapidly building north into AZ  from Mexico. Some smoke from a large fire west of Nogales ( AZ ) that painted the sky orange late last night. Anticipate more smoke from that fire, and another in west central N.M. spreading over the area today as well.




Things in our favor this year

** La Nina: Much like last year, ENSO hangs in negative territory.. While exactly how La Nina factors into wetter summers in the southwest is still being explored, there are some interesting correlations that have been observed that point in the " generally wetter Monsoon " direction during La Nina events.  That said, there are plenty of Dry La Nina years in the historical record to balance the optimistic ones.  There have been some comparisons made between some seasons as 1950, 1955, 84, 88/89, and 99 in terms of a " double dip La Nina ", let alone how strong of a La Nina were in place at the start of Monsoon season. Many of these years leaned wet both up here around Phoenix, and down in Tucson.

** Atlantic Hurricane Season set up.. More systems in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico = better potential for upper level lows / remnant tropical systems tracking west across Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean.. More moisture they provide to the mountains of N.W. Mexico = more moisture that can surge into AZ / N.M. and beyond.

** Mexico itself, Sierra Madre Occidental especially..  W/ out moisture building north up this chain of mountains thru June, we would have a tougher time seeing rainfall here..  As it stands, things are looking quite good across the mountains down there right now.. " A good foundation being laid " has been repeated by several local meteorologists in regards to how things are looking as the season beings - here at least -

** Ideal 4 corners / Central / Southern Plains High position.. Too far west / anchored over central AZ, or suppressed south into Mexico = dry and hot, like summer 2020. Centered over the 4 corners, centered over the Great Basin ( roughly Northern Utah /Eastern Nevada ) and / or sprawled out across the central or Southern Plains = ideal set up for moving moisture west from the Gulf of Mexico towards the Southwest.

We always want to be " under " the High so upper level winds are constantly out of the east / southeast / south..

** Dry winter/ spring ..And boy has it been dry.. While not a guarantee, it is generally thought that dry winters lead to wet summers.

** Hot and dry Plains / Upper Midwest..  Many forecasts calling for a hot / fairly dry summer for both areas.. While research continues into the link, when the Plains / Upper Midwest are in a summer drought, Southwestern U.S. will be wet / wetter.. Wet out there, Dry here..


Things being watched..

** As mentioned, there have been years where Monsoon onset was early, but the latter half ended up very dry.. A " front loaded " Monsoon if you will.. Hopefully this does not occur this year.

** East Pacific Hurricane activity..  Usually suppressed during La Nina Years, and expected to be suppressed this year. While not critical to a good Monsoon, remnants from tropical systems that venture far enough north do provide a good end of season boost to rainfall. In some cases, they can provide more than a season's worth.  While the season is expected to be subdued, we can still have a one off storm surprise everyone and bring rain.  Another thing to be watched, looking like La Nina is starting to loose it's grip.. While it won't change enough to really effect this year's  E. Pac Hurricane season much, it could allow a little more activity than currently suggested..  Next year? ..We'll look at that later..

**Late summer forecasts..  Mixed bag going in, Mixed bag possible through the season ahead..

June 16th update CPC precip outlooks for July, Aug, and Sept. They have been bouncing around a bit, after looking pretty wet for the summer earlier in the year









Current CFS outlooks for the same time..  ..Has been wavering between drier and wetter since March.








ECMWF weekly.. Of all the wx models, they have been the more consistent with a wet signal for the Southwest US. While no long range model is perfect and can nail the forecast 100% months head of X date, there has been some research suggesting the international models may perform better than the Wx models used by the NWS (  ie: GFS, NMME ) in seasonal forecasting.

Current ECMWF weekly update keeps a wet to normal signal across the area through July.. Up until the 5th of next month would be the more reliable of their longer range forecasts though.

Side note: June update of the NMME  looked awful when released earlier this month. Not posting it.   We'll see..

*** Current SST's in the Gulf of CA and SST Anomalies there..  June is a " warm up " month, and ..we're getting there. Northern Gulf looks good ..but not quite at the magic 29C threshold that almost guarantees rain. Peak SST's won't be reached until September.


Looking at the current anomalies ( State of the Ocean Data ), hrmmm.. will the slug of cool water centered off the mouth of the Gulf temper how quickly the gulf itself warms, or how Gulf Surge events evolve through the season?..  Another wait and see factor..  A little warm off S. Call at the moment as well.  Dark Red = +3C anomalies.  Dark Blue = -3C anoms.





So there it is.. Realistic Optimism..  As always, always looking for that " obliterates all rainfall records to dust " kind of year,   but will be happy with another 4-5" over a long season.. As long as this summer doesn't even attempt to approach the same dreadfully hot and depressing level of summer 2020, that is good enough.. 


  Looking forward to another year of  wild sunsets, flooded washes and backyards, lush, emerald carpeted landscapes, and many humid late nights dodging lightning bolts and dust  ahead..


As some clouds roll in, hinting at what might a good sunset later,   Welcome to:  The season of magic..


Surprise, high - based Thunder showers prowling the desert over Casa Grande a few days ago ( 6 / 12 / 22 ) A day after the surprise storms that popped up on the northwest side of town..







 

[Chester B]

Best of luck to you. If I could I would send all this hellish wet stuff down your way. 

[Silas_Sancona]

6 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Best of luck to you. If I could I would send all this hellish wet stuff down your way. 

You guys have definitely had more than enough rain and crappy temps. this year for sure..  

We'll see what happens of course, but think at some point ( sooner rather than later ), the faucet should shut off up there and we'll be the next area in the west " in the news " for flooding, particularly up by Flagstaff where big fires have been burning recently.  They had pretty serious flash flooding issues last year, the burn scar from a fire a few years back helping to make much worse.
 

[SailorBold]

Its been good here I got 0.96" so far..which is actually alot..  The temps 10- 30 deg below normal tho as the trade-off...which is fine too..because I think we were at 80 days without rain. Ill take it..  

My gut feeling is telling me this is going to get snuffed out tho by high pressure..and then rain in September..

What do you think Nathan?

[SailorBold]

My sort of quick hooked up rainbarrel.. one of three..  

These im going to water Trachies.. Fatsias..(maybe a fern??) around my patio.. when I get to it..

[Silas_Sancona]

29 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Its been good here I got 0.96" so far..which is actually alot..  The temps 10- 30 deg below normal tho as the trade-off...which is fine too..because I think we were at 80 days without rain. Ill take it..  

My gut feeling is telling me this is going to get snuffed out tho by high pressure..and then rain in September..

What do you think Nathan?

As always, it's tough to guarantee the entire summer will be wet.  That said, looking real good for the next couple weeks - at least-  though the axis of where heavier rain / storms occur may shift west towards AZ by the end of the month / start of July so you may dry out a little ..But don't think it will go totally dry... Regardless,  Longer tern signal still looks good for the season.  there's always at least one dry/ hot break in between wet periods throughout the season ..so i'd expect that ..

Overall, think there's a pretty good chance we'll end up in a similar boat as last year, maybe a bit better since New Mexico should be pretty wet as well.. You're already off to quite a wet start atm..



Looking at notes on the years sited by Grant, here's how they stacked up for Tucson, Albquequerqe, and Phoenix..

Phoenix wettest / driest years ( Avrg. Monsoon Season rainfall is 2.43" )



Tucson wettest / driest years ( Average Monsoon Season rainfall is  5.69" )



Albuquerque wettest/ driest years ( Avrg. Monsoon Season rainfall is 4.48" )



The years in Grant's post broken down:

                     Tucson:      Phoenix:     Albq:

** = very wet summer.

1919            **Wet           wet           **Wet

1933             avrg.         avrg.            **Wet

1953              dry            dry              dry

1969             avrg.         avrg.             dry

1984           **Wet          **Wet            Wet

1999             wet            wet            Wet

2018             Wet            avrg.           avrg.        

Last year :   **Wet           wet            dry

So you can see how only one year was super dry with 3 years being wet / very wet across the board.. Perhaps a good sign for this year??



If the High Pressure " dome"  set up stays pretty much in the same general configuration it is currently over the Plains / Texas and southeast  most of the summer.. moisture / easterly wave activity from what could be an pretty active hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could have an easier time getting here. Even better if part of it sets up over the northwestern Great Basin at times next month and in August. 

Just have to wait and see how it plays out..  and enjoy whatever we get.

>

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Couple GREAT nights for Monsoon '22  RARE that late June is this active..  While the " official " rain Gauge at Chandler Muni reads .31" from last night's whopper, guarantee more than that fell.. Storm sat overhead / the area for nearly 3 hours and dumped..

Some dust..  But not quite Haboob - Status event yet..  Keeps raining over a wide enough area, like it has the last couple days, we might go Haboob- less again this year.







Why to NEVER plant ( or allow ) Leucanea leucocephala ( White Lead Tree ) to grow in your yard ( HINT: Your neighbors will despise you )



Some decent bolts..  Wish the Street Lights came w/ a remote to switch half of them off though..

[JohnAndSancho]

TLDR version: no rain for SE TX all year lol 

[Silas_Sancona]

A few " ok " day time bolts from the other day..  This particular cell was kind of stingy w/ the cloud to grounders, especially those that weren't hidden where rain was falling..  Goal in this case was to try and capture a big bright bolt w/ lots of forks weaving it's way from the cloud base and down through the clear space between the Washingtonia.. Pictures 1 and 4 came real close..









As mentioned elsewhere, Storms the other day ended up being more popcorn / or " Pulse " - type activity vs. a widespread event w/ lots of electricity, let alone a good soaking,valley wide rain.. While it poured in some parts of town i passed through while out after this storm finished it's show, only some quarter - sized drops at the house.. 

Maybe some storms tomorrow or Thursday ( ..maybe Friday as well ) before things may quiet down over most of the state for a few days..   At the moment,  not looking like nature will add it's own fireworks to local 4th of July skies this year but, because a weather forecast is never set in stone,  things could change between now and Monday afternoon.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Aside from what fell a few nights ago, mainly dry and watching what storms have occurred skirt the outskirts of valley.. That said, did have our first " decent " dust event the other day.. As mentioned over in the " cloud " thread, while developing Cumulus along the Outflow boundary look threatening, none did much as they ..and the dust moved through.  dust event itself was rather localized compared to a " real deal " Haboob..  While some rain has fallen between here and Tucson, very little green up out in the desert yet so the " traditional " dust bed areas along the I-10 between here and Tucson are still primed for a doozy of a duster..  ~ if  ~  we can get the atmosphere to cooperate

Dust generated by this particular event came more from the open desert areas southwest of town to the right, rather than head on from the south or southeast ( Where the big events usually form )..

















Now you see it.. ( Looking south, toward where the freeway is )





Now you don't..




Some stats from June regarding how the monsoon is doing so far. *** Will add:   While precip totals over AZ look impressive on the maps, keep in mind that isn't saying much.. June totals across many areas of the lower elevation areas of AZ average 0.00" - 0.04" for June.   Most areas are still bone dry.. *** Considering how close it has been, not thrilled about Tucson missing out on most of the activity so far either..







Winner for June by far is New. Mexico..



What is ahead for July???  ...Well, ...  See the " Current Temp " post.

[Silas_Sancona]

Been awhile since i added anything here so, ...in anticipation for another ramp up in activity next week, time to do so, lol..

Some selected lightning shots from mid- month events..  Not all that impressed w/ this camera's night time video quality, and do wish i had a 30 / 30+ second long exposure setting ..rather than just 15 seconds but,  ...it is, what it is,  -for now..

First, how lightning activity is looking across the state for the season - so far, as of yesterday.. Pretty decent, and ahead of last year at the same time. If next weeks forecasts pan out as suggested, could add quite a bit to this total by next weekend across the state.. Can see just how odd both 2019 and 2020 were compared to every other season, even the next least active active ones back in '91 and '93



Yesterdays SST readings in the Gulf of CA.. 30c contour still stuck below Isla Tiburon in the Central Gulf..  Still another 2 months before sea surface temps. peak for the year here..



As is the case earlier on in the season, storms like to play a game of hide and seek with bolts, though the last few threw around plenty of Cloud-to-Grounders.. Trouble is trying to capture them in a 15 second window, haha..







The streak on the left is a plane moving into view..








...That moment when your camera is panned just a little too far to the left




...And when you forget to charge the battery, and it starts to die ..just as some active storms develop at 2am.. ( and the storm itself decides to go into a " down " de-intensifying phase and concentrate lighting activity back up in the clouds, rather than produce more CGs Which usually occur w/ more frequency during an " active / growing " phase of a storm's life cycle )






Time to dump a bunch of pictures on the SD card and wait for the next act in the show to take the stage..


Today's CPC outlook thoughts for the next 10, 14 days / 3-week time frame :  Steady sailing ahead??

[Chris Chance]

I'm hoping to see some storms roll through here next week. Awesome pictures! 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Chris Chance said:

I'm hoping to see some storms roll through here next week. Awesome pictures! 

Crossing my fingers everyone out there gets in on the action as well..  As long as the upper level flow stays favorable ( ..everything generally moving from east to west from AZ and Sonora / Baja ) pieces of energy / disturbances should work their way toward California, much like last year ...if not a little more  -this year.

As far as the pictures, happy w/ them so far, but need to get away from the house, lol..  Pretty brutal sitting in a car for a few ( or several ) hours waiting on storms to form / head toward where you're positioned when it is 110+ out.  

Night time storms are better, but some of the closer, ideal vantage points ( to the house  ) close at 10:30.  Considering AZ driver behavior, have to be aware of traffic when you head outside of town, ..more out in the desert where the views are better / less polluted by city lights.

[Desert DAC]

On 7/22/2022 at 2:18 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Been awhile since i added anything here so, ...in anticipation for another ramp up in activity next week, time to do so, lol..

Some selected lightning shots from mid- month events..  Not all that impressed w/ this camera's night time video quality, and do wish i had a 30 / 30+ second long exposure setting ..rather than just 15 seconds but,  ...it is, what it is,  -for now..

First, how lightning activity is looking across the state for the season - so far, as of yesterday.. Pretty decent, and ahead of last year at the same time. If next weeks forecasts pan out as suggested, could add quite a bit to this total by next weekend across the state.. Can see just how odd both 2019 and 2020 were compared to every other season, even the next least active active ones back in '91 and '93



Yesterdays SST readings in the Gulf of CA.. 30c contour still stuck below Isla Tiburon in the Central Gulf..  Still another 2 months before sea surface temps. peak for the year here..



As is the case earlier on in the season, storms like to play a game of hide and seek with bolts, though the last few threw around plenty of Cloud-to-Grounders.. Trouble is trying to capture them in a 15 second window, haha..







The streak on the left is a plane moving into view..








...That moment when your camera is panned just a little too far to the left




...And when you forget to charge the battery, and it starts to die ..just as some active storms develop at 2am.. ( and the storm itself decides to go into a " down " de-intensifying phase and concentrate lighting activity back up in the clouds, rather than produce more CGs Which usually occur w/ more frequency during an " active / growing " phase of a storm's life cycle )






Time to dump a bunch of pictures on the SD card and wait for the next act in the show to take the stage..


Today's CPC outlook thoughts for the next 10, 14 days / 3-week time frame :  Steady sailing ahead??

 

On 7/22/2022 at 2:18 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Been awhile since i added anything here so, ...in anticipation for another ramp up in activity next week, time to do so, lol..

Some selected lightning shots from mid- month events..  Not all that impressed w/ this camera's night time video quality, and do wish i had a 30 / 30+ second long exposure setting ..rather than just 15 seconds but,  ...it is, what it is,  -for now..

First, how lightning activity is looking across the state for the season - so far, as of yesterday.. Pretty decent, and ahead of last year at the same time. If next weeks forecasts pan out as suggested, could add quite a bit to this total by next weekend across the state.. Can see just how odd both 2019 and 2020 were compared to every other season, even the next least active active ones back in '91 and '93



Yesterdays SST readings in the Gulf of CA.. 30c contour still stuck below Isla Tiburon in the Central Gulf..  Still another 2 months before sea surface temps. peak for the year here..



As is the case earlier on in the season, storms like to play a game of hide and seek with bolts, though the last few threw around plenty of Cloud-to-Grounders.. Trouble is trying to capture them in a 15 second window, haha..







The streak on the left is a plane moving into view..








...That moment when your camera is panned just a little too far to the left




...And when you forget to charge the battery, and it starts to die ..just as some active storms develop at 2am.. ( and the storm itself decides to go into a " down " de-intensifying phase and concentrate lighting activity back up in the clouds, rather than produce more CGs Which usually occur w/ more frequency during an " active / growing " phase of a storm's life cycle )






Time to dump a bunch of pictures on the SD card and wait for the next act in the show to take the stage..


Today's CPC outlook thoughts for the next 10, 14 days / 3-week time frame :  Steady sailing ahead??

Glad you all in Arizona and up in Albuquerque are getting good monsoon rains. But so far their outlook missed it big-time in Las Cruces, like most every week of July. Temperatures 4-6F above average, and 20-40% rain chances most days have ended up dry. My part of town particularly has missed most storms further east has had...year to date is about 1 to 1-1/2 inch of rain, half since late June.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Desert DAC said:

 

Glad you all in Arizona and up in Albuquerque are getting good monsoon rains. But so far their outlook missed it big-time in Las Cruces, like most every week of July. Temperatures 4-6F above average, and 20-40% rain chances most days have ended up dry. My part of town particularly has missed most storms further east has had...year to date is about 1 to 1-1/2 inch of rain, half since late June.

Been more of a miss so far in my part of the valley as well.. At least the rain part, lol..  Current Monsoon rainfall total Might  be just over .50" at the local, municipal Airport here in Chandler..  ...and that may be pushing it, haha..  Most of that likely fell when we had a good storm dump almost overhead back in June.. Been mainly sprinkles or a brief ( say less than 10-15 minute ) heavier downpour this month, when we've seen rain.

Other areas closer to the mountains on this side of town, and a good chunk of the Northwest side of Phoenix have done better.  Hopefully things even out this month but i'm not holding my breath.  By this time last year, summer annual stuff i plant in the rock out front was sprouting and a lot of roadsides / undeveloped lots were also greening up.. Not seeing much of that this year  -yet-.

At least the spots i'll be visiting down south this month and in September seem to be greening up ok so far..

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A few good shots, w/ the moon included:









 

[Desert DAC]

On 8/2/2022 at 8:58 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Been more of a miss so far in my part of the valley as well.. At least the rain part, lol..  Current Monsoon rainfall total Might  be just over .50" at the local, municipal Airport here in Chandler..  ...and that may be pushing it, haha.. 

By this time last year, summer annual stuff i plant in the rock out front was sprouting and a lot of roadsides / undeveloped lots were also greening up.. Not seeing much of that this year  -yet-.

At least the spots i'll be visiting down south this month and in September seem to be greening up ok so far..

Except Oro Valley I've seen photos of Tucson, and it's green. Greener near the border, and waterfalls all over the Catalinas. I'm just happy for the .25" late Friday night and most lows back in the 60's.

[Silas_Sancona]

26 minutes ago, Desert DAC said:

Except Oro Valley I've seen photos of Tucson, and it's green. Greener near the border, and waterfalls all over the Catalinas. I'm just happy for the .25" late Friday night and most lows back in the 60's.

Very green down there right now... Know Sabino Canyon, and Tanque Verde have been running high t times lately as well.  That whole N.E. side of the Catalinas was already greening up when i was down there in late July,  while the rest of Tucson was still crispy brown.  Weird how the airport has missed out on the bigger storms and is actually running really dry atm, but a fair chunk of Tucson seems to be doing alright so far..  Similar pattern up here .. At Sky Harbor / this section of the valley at least..

S. AZ looks really good as well..  Foothill areas just to my east were just starting to green up nicely when i was out there last week and should look lush in another week or two, ...as long as the rains keep up.

We managed to squeeze out a heavy, 30min  " Moon Shower " last night pretty much right over head. Might see more today though it is still cloudy which usually means we won't see enough heat to help destabilize the atmosphere later.  Missed out on the big storm that dumped 3" over the N.E. side of the valley the other day though. 

While rain cooled air hasn't pushed temps. back into the 60s here yet, shower last night / outflow from the bigger storms the other day did cut temperatures back to the upper 70s for several hours/ overnight.

[SailorBold]

Here's my total so far.. lots of rain this year for sure.. considering I get 6-8" a year..this has been a great monsoon.

June: 2.62"

July: 1.74"

Aug to date: 1.23"

Total: 5.59"!!

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, SailorBold said:

Here's my total so far.. lots of rain this year for sure.. considering I get 6-8" a year..this has been a great monsoon.

June: 2.62"

July: 1.74"

Aug to date: 1.23"

Total: 5.59"!!

Boooooo, Hisss, Hahaha..   

Think we're at ..or just barely over... an inch here in Chandler atm so far.. Sky Harbor has been dry as well..  Both areas have been one of the few spots in the valley that has missed out on most of the bigger storms/ rainfall totals this summer.. Tucson has been in a similar rut also, at least at the Airport.   That may change by Sunday though.. You'll likely be over the 6" mark by Monday as well from the same rain event we're supposed to see starting tonight / tomorrow.

[SailorBold]

7 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Boooooo, Hisss, Hahaha..   

Think we're at ..or just barely over... an inch here in Chandler atm so far.. Sky Harbor has been dry as well..  Both areas have been one of the few spots in the valley that has missed out on most of the bigger storms/ rainfall totals this summer.. Tucson has been in a similar rut also, at least at the Airport.   That may change by Sunday though.. You'll likely be over the 6" mark by Monday as well from the same rain event we're supposed to see starting tonight / tomorrow.

Lol.. you know it's not much still.  A few nights ago it was raining at midnight.. and I was like wow.. its pouring outside..

Checked my weather station..

0.13". I'm like geeze.. if i think thats pouring outside...smh

so the totals have been a grand total of several rains like that.. with literal sun showers and white cloud rainstorms.. I always am amazed tho.. the sand is still dry lol.

We had one good thunderstorm.. literally 10 minutes.. but hopefully we'll get a good one this weekend like you said! And you too!

[Silas_Sancona]

17 hours ago, SailorBold said:

Lol.. you know it's not much still.  A few nights ago it was raining at midnight.. and I was like wow.. its pouring outside..

Checked my weather station..

0.13". I'm like geeze.. if i think thats pouring outside...smh

so the totals have been a grand total of several rains like that.. with literal sun showers and white cloud rainstorms.. I always am amazed tho.. the sand is still dry lol.

We had one good thunderstorm.. literally 10 minutes.. but hopefully we'll get a good one this weekend like you said! And you too!

That is how last year was.. .15"- .30" or so each time, that added up.. + a few bigger events.  This year it has been mainly spit, with a couple larger, but under-whelming events..

When i look at pictures of the old yard / rest of this side of town from last year, yard was a jungle, rest of the east valley pretty green. Some greener spots around town, but not even close -overall-  this year.  We'll see what happens this weekend/ rest of what is left of the season though..

[Silas_Sancona]

Some final #'s for Monsoon 2022..  While decent, overall, some obvious winners and losers across the Valley -and state.

Final Lightning activity total ( State- wide )

537,366 total strikes for the season, or 16th most active year. Interesting how lightning activity was higher this year compared to last year's WET summer.  At least at the house, i know i saw more lightning here last year than this year.

Graph:



Interesting tweet regarding who saw the most lightning activity across the state:



Valley area totals:

Phoenix, at Sky Harbor:

2.23" / Monsoon Season average: 2.43"  Compared to 4.20" last year.

Chandler:
2.17" 

Mesa:
4.02"

Queen Creek:
5.98"

Apache Junction:
4.61"

Gilbert:
3.54"

Wider view of valley-wide 2022 Monsoon Rainfall totals overall..



Some additional valley-wide stats/ maps: Hopefully the " dry " parts of town this year, wash away next year, haha..







Better resolution of the above two maps:






Tucson / S. AZ:  **Sonoita, Patagonia, and Madera Canyon don't have official rain gauges, so using " best guess " thoughts on their rain totals based upon nearby gauges. **

Tucson ( at the Airport ) other areas of town saw more/ quite a bit more in certain, localized spots:

4.34" / Normal: 5.69"

How 2022 compares to other years using the Haywood Plot



Other spots around S. / S.E. AZ:

Sierra Vista:
11.15" / M.S.N. : 8.54"

Nogales:
14.93" / M.S.N. : 9.57"


Safford:
5.63" / M.S.N. : 3.68"


Wilcox:
13.57" / M.S.N. : 6.60"


Western / Southwestern AZ:

Yuma:
1.13" / Monsoon Season Normal:  .59"

Flagstaff:
10.63" / Monsoon Season Normal: 7.68"

Kingman:
4.66" / Monsoon Season Normal: 2.78"

Ajo:
7.93" / M.S.N : 2.94"


ABQ ( top ) and El Paso ( below )

ABQ.
6.10" / Monsoon Season Normal: 4.48" ** 10th wettest Monsoon season.

El Paso:
5.85" / Monsoon Season Normal: 5.27"

Vegas and Palm Springs:

Las Vegas:
1.77" / M.S.N. : 1.05"

Palm Springs / Borrego / El Centro:
** Missing

Not the worst of years, but could have been a bit better ...at the house / in the immediate area at least... Imo, S. AZ definitely won the season, as did Albuquerque.

While it doesn't count for the season,  some moisture hanging around AZ and neighboring areas the next several days which could spark isolated storms at times in the area, esp. the mountains, and across portions of southern AZ.  Temperatures are finally headed in the right direction ..No more 100's / Nights in the 70's, and *hopefully* by next weekend the 60's.  Could start seeing more 80's by mid- month..  Fall Hiking Weather Season inbound!..

After Monsoon heads south for winter vacation..  We'll see what next year brings..


 

[Silas_Sancona]

Some additional more detailed final #'s from Tucson and Southern AZ:

General Tweet from Tucson's NWS Office via UofAZ Hydrology and Atmospherics professor Christopher L Castro:



Better detail of totals around Tucson:

Catalinas / Mt. Lemmon did pretty well while the valley itself was a mixed bag this year. Last year, the airport alone accumulated over 12", compared to 4.94" this year.



...Around the rest of S. AZ. :  Wettest Monsoon since 1921 for Patagonia... No wonder everything was so green down there.





On a side note, Today marks the  12 year anniversary of one of... ..if not the largest... Hail storm to strike Phoenix and surrounding areas. Looking at data from Interactive Hail Maps, a few areas around town saw hail stones in the 3" ( in diameter ) size..  Looking at the same map below, looks like i could have seen 1-2" sized hail here. 

https://www.interactivehailmaps.com/hail-map-phoenix-az-october-5-2010-2/

While pretty rare, Yes,  big hailstorms do occasionally occur in the desert.

[Silas_Sancona]

After a 2 ..or 3 years wait, the next, and much anticipated chapter in Monsoon- season related films by the master of  Storm- related films, Mike Olbinski is live..  What a treat to enjoy just as the " down " season ( aka winter ) sets in.  Well worth the loonngg wait.. Actually wish it were a bit longer, haha

Enjoy....



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZniBKmSNGmQ

** A word of caution for anyone who might sensitive to Photographically- induced " Strobe-Light Effects "  The film contains PLENTY of Lightning sequences.

***All material is Copyright of Mike himself. ***

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Silas_Sancona
edit