2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JLM]

Update for the morning of 9/22/22

Hurricane Fiona is still a Category 4 hurricane, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for Bermuda. Once Fiona passes Bermuda, next up is the Canadian Maritimes. Fiona has the potential to have the lowest pressure on record for Canada when it arrives there. This could be historic for them, and typically lower pressures = higher winds and wave/storm surge potential. This one could be a doozy.

Tropical Storm Gaston has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for the western and central Azores this morning. You dont hear about the Azores being under tropical alerts very often, but here we are. Gaston will likely be a fairly low end impact for the Azores before it turns extratropical.

Invest 98L is trying to fire off convection this morning, but pretty much nothing else has changed. The RECON data from lastnight was supposed to help the models a little bit, but they seemed to split even further. Now the Euro/EPS is showing a faster north turn, a subsequently a further east track. The GFS/GEFS is the opposite, showing a slower turn north and subsequently a further west track. We will see what happens, but until a center forms models will be confused. Models also have biases, the Euro often has a strong ridge bias and the GFS often has a weak ridge bias. In this case, the ridge will be positioned to make the storm turn north, with the GFS's weak ridge bias theres no wonder why its showing this storm hitting Texas. That seems like an unlikely solution, and the GFS operational is an outlier from its own ensemble right now, which has a decent clump of ensembles going from SE Louisiana to NW Florida. Some GEFS members do also go over the Florida Peninsula and Big Bend region. The Euro shifted a tiny bit "west" towards the Big Bend overnight, but that doesnt much matter until we get a storm. Anyways, its ensemble is "clumped" more over the Eastern Gulf and Peninsula. Each model has its biases, and they are really showing right now. Take everything with a grain of salt.

Invest 99L still has a low chance to develop, and if it does develop it likely wont be a problem for anyone.

The wave over Africa has a 60% chance to develop once its completely offshore. It will turn north immediately, and will not be a problem for anyone to the west. The coast of Africa may experience increased surf and rip currents if something does form over there.

[D. Morrowii]

The models seem to be getting close to agreeing on a landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula as of this this morning.  

[JLM]

57 minutes ago, D. Morrowii said:

The models seem to be getting close to agreeing on a landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula as of this this morning.  

That may be true, but at the same time this is still 5 days out, and a lot can happen that could change the track. For example, the "HWFI" on that plot is the HWRF hurricane model, and in the most recent run it is showing some downshear center reformations, and subsequently it shifted west to just barely clipping the western tip of Cuba. Compared to the pervious run which is shown on the plot above, it was over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba. So in other words, it shifted to the western edge of the guidance, and i wouldnt be surprised to see other models follow it. This does not mean it wont turn east at some point, but this east turn will probably be later and a landfall point would probably be at Tampa or north from there. This is all just speculation though. 

An important reminder is that what happens within the next 72 hours will greatly impact where it goes long term. I would suspect that if we get a few center reformations to the west or southwest, the guidance will shift west along with it. Now there will also be an upper low over the Yucatan Channel that will significantly impact the track of a weaker storm, causing a sharper north turn into Cuba, and subsequently it makes landfall as a weaker storm over the southern half of Florida. Lots of different possibilities out there.

Edited September 23, 2022 by JLM

[D. Morrowii]

I’m with you, it would not surprise me if this shifted West a couple of times over the next 2-3 days and ends up making a landfall in Louisiana on Thursday or Friday. From a preparedness stand point though I usually restock supplies if I’m in the cone 5 days out and start tying stuff down if I’m in the cone 2 days out. Do you know if this is expected to be a big storm area wise? 
 

Edit- Actually looks to be shifting further East at least at the moment? 

[bubba]

GFS takes this Bad Boy just above Tampa as a 956 MB (Cat 3) Wednesday September 28, 2022. European run stops on Tuesday September 27, 2022 with the Bad Boy still south of Western Cuba. Sidewinder Season commences...

[IHB1979]

NHC has landfall Wednesday, 8AM in SW Florida as major. I'm going to take a bunch of garden photos this weekend. I remember Irma was 80 miles to the west and my yard was shredded pretty good. 

[PalmatierMeg]

Yikes! Shades of Charley, Wilma & Irma! Looks like my 5-year run of storm good luck may be over.

[Barry]

Yes, not looking good for SW Florida, but it can definitely shift one way or the other. I was not living here for Charley, but here the day after. Lived thru Wilma and Irma! Will start prepping the yard tomorrow. Then see how it looks Sunday morning for major moving of plants and yard stuff.

[Jimbean]

I love hurricanes

[JLM]

Sorry for the lack of updates recently, i will be more available tomorrow and hopefully Sunday as well.

I know yall are watching very closely down there all over the peninsula, and rightfully so. Ian is expected to be a major Category 3 hurricane on approach to the Florida coast next week. There is still a very high degree of uncertainty.

The latest forecast track shows possibilities from around Apalachicola to the northern Bahamas in terms of track.

There are some big things that will play a role in determining the eventual track. First is the wind shear it is facing now, an upper low, and the trough.

Ill start with shear, the shear is causing the storm to be tilted to the southwest, and it is possible that overnight the mid level center (where all the storms are) digs down towards the surface and pulls the low level center southwest. This is not a guarantee to happen, but if it does then the storm will probably end up a little further west of the current forecast track. The further west the northwest turn is, the more west it will go. Same goes for east, the sooner it turns northwest/north, the more east it will track.

Now theres an upper low that will eventually break down into a trough over the NW Caribbean, this may help a weaker storm turn north faster. A stronger storm wouldnt be affected by this feature very much.

Now the trough, and this is where most of the model differences are coming into play. The GFS shows the trough digging down, but the storm misses the trough as the trough exits to the northeast. Behind the trough, a ridge over Texas builds eastward, imparting northerly flow onto the storm, while the ridge over the Atlantic imparts southerly flow. This would cause the storm to stall out for a little bit over the eastern Gulf. On the GFS, the storm makes landfall along the far western edge of the forecast cone near Apalachicola. 
The European shows a much different solution. One the Euro, this trough digs down similar to the GFS, but on the Euro a shortwave comes through and digs the trough even further, resulting in a quick escape across Florida and up the east coast/out to sea. These are two very different solutions, and this will have to monitored to see which solution wins out. The GFS has been the most inconsistent thus far, but the Euro can be pretty stubborn sometimes, so just dont take any individual model run as gospel. 

Also, the National Hurricane Center has requested that all forecast offices east of the Rockies begin launching weather balloons at 06z and 18z in addition to the usual launch times. This will hopefully help the forecast models produce more accurate scenarios. Along with RECON data, this should really help out the models. Once Ian turns north, hopefully we will get a much better idea of where its going. All of Florida should be preparing for a hurricane impact, because while a northern Gulf Coast threat is unlikely, its still not out of question. Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and the Carolinas should be watching future forecast updates on Ian at the National Hurricane Center site. If you are currently in the forecast cone, you should be preparing for a major hurricane strike. Be prepared, not scared.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like this week will be a little more interesting than anticipated from @PalmatierMeg's place to mine.

[PalmatierMeg]

Yesterday afternoon my husband spent 2 hours & $200 waiting in line at 2 Wawas buying boat gas for our generator. Let the games begin.

[JLM]

6 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Yesterday afternoon my husband spent 2 hours & $200 waiting in line at 2 Wawas buying boat gas for our generator. Let the games begin.

Im not sure if we have long lines at stores here. Track has shifted west, im sure if it hasnt already happened it will soon.


Something to note, a stronger storm will be more west, weaker will be more east. Thats not to say that if it went more east that it wont be a major hurricane at all, im saying that a stronger/west storm could be Cat 4+.

Something else to note, shear will increase the further north it gets, so weakening would be expected if it makes a landfall really anywhere north of Tampa.

[PalmatierMeg]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

Im not sure if we have long lines at stores here. Track has shifted west, im sure if it hasnt already happened it will soon.


Something to note, a stronger storm will be more west, weaker will be more east. Thats not to say that if it went more east that it wont be a major hurricane at all, im saying that a stronger/west storm could be Cat 4+.

Something else to note, shear will increase the further north it gets, so weakening would be expected if it makes a landfall really anywhere north of Tampa.

Tampa may luck out this time, too. It is about 80 years past due for its "big one." Hurricane Charley was predicted to hit Tampa before it took a last minute right turn to clobber Punta Gorda/Cape Coral/Fort Myers in 2004. Fort Myers was 44 years past due for its "big one." Karma?

Gas lines are starting to form and grocery stores are hopping. And joy of joys, Aldis just got a shipment of imported German cakes, pastries and strudels. Yum.

[JLM]

Update: The governor of Florida has now expanded the State of Emergency to ALL 67 Florida counties. Lines are about to form all over the state.

[kinzyjr]

Just to cover the bases, filled up the car to the brim.  None of my offices are planning on closing as of now.  That decision will probably be made Tuesday when the exact track is a bit more predictable.

National Hurricane Center has this update:

 

[Looking Glass]

After watching so many of these over the years, I’ve found that if you are outside the cone of death early on, watch out.  If you are inside, it always moves.  Also, you usually have 3 more days than you initially think, to get ready, when it’s 6+ days out.  

Most of the nativish folks don’t get too worried until it hits Cat 3+, but of course, even now there is a run on highly perishable foods, tiny fancy bottles of water, and D batteries.   

When it’s eminent, I usually make sure my AA batteries are stocked, we have enough gas for the grill, and I’ve filled up every 1L Nalgene, some pitchers, the 10 gallon Gatorade Beverage Cooler, the hiking bladders, and some buckets with tap water.  I’ll freeze huge chunks of ice for the coolers in advance.  And make sure the gas tank is full, and that I’ve got extra cash on hand.   I usually buy some canned stuff (soups, tuna, canned octopus and sardines) and protein bars, maybe summer sausage/cheese, single serving envelopes of instant potatoes or pasta…  the kind of stuff that would work on a 1 week hiking trip in the back-country with no power or refrigeration.  

All the potted palms I’ll stick in the corners, against the fence, and tie them to it, or steak the smaller stuff in their pots in protected positions.   In-ground palms are mostly on their own.  
 

 

[DoomsDave]

24 minutes ago, Looking Glass said:

After watching so many of these over the years, I’ve found that if you are outside the cone of death early on, watch out.  If you are inside, it always moves.  Also, you usually have 3 more days than you initially think, to get ready, when it’s 6+ days out.  

Most of the nativish folks don’t get too worried until it hits Cat 3+, but of course, even now there is a run on highly perishable foods, tiny fancy bottles of water, and D batteries.   

When it’s eminent, I usually make sure my AA batteries are stocked, we have enough gas for the grill, and I’ve filled up every 1L Nalgene, some pitchers, the 10 gallon Gatorade Beverage Cooler, the hiking bladders, and some buckets with tap water.  I’ll freeze huge chunks of ice for the coolers in advance.  And make sure the gas tank is full, and that I’ve got extra cash on hand.   I usually buy some canned stuff (soups, tuna, canned octopus and sardines) and protein bars, maybe summer sausage/cheese, single serving envelopes of instant potatoes or pasta…  the kind of stuff that would work on a 1 week hiking trip in the back-country with no power or refrigeration.  

All the potted palms I’ll stick in the corners, against the fence, and tie them to it, or steak the smaller stuff in their pots in protected positions.   In-ground palms are mostly on their own.  
 

 

 

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Just to cover the bases, filled up the car to the brim.  None of my offices are planning on closing as of now.  That decision will probably be made Tuesday when the exact track is a bit more predictable.

National Hurricane Center has this update:

 

 

8 hours ago, JLM said:

Update: The governor of Florida has now expanded the State of Emergency to ALL 67 Florida counties. Lines are about to form all over the state.

 

9 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Tampa may luck out this time, too. It is about 80 years past due for its "big one." Hurricane Charley was predicted to hit Tampa before it took a last minute right turn to clobber Punta Gorda/Cape Coral/Fort Myers in 2004. Fort Myers was 44 years past due for its "big one." Karma?

Gas lines are starting to form and grocery stores are hopping. And joy of joys, Aldis just got a shipment of imported German cakes, pastries and strudels. Yum.

 

On 9/23/2022 at 6:52 PM, Jimbean said:

I love hurricanes

 

On 9/23/2022 at 5:32 PM, Barry said:

Yes, not looking good for SW Florida, but it can definitely shift one way or the other. I was not living here for Charley, but here the day after. Lived thru Wilma and Irma! Will start prepping the yard tomorrow. Then see how it looks Sunday morning for major moving of plants and yard stuff.

 

On 9/23/2022 at 6:39 AM, bubba said:

GFS takes this Bad Boy just above Tampa as a 956 MB (Cat 3) Wednesday September 28, 2022. European run stops on Tuesday September 27, 2022 with the Bad Boy still south of Western Cuba. Sidewinder Season commences...

 

On 9/23/2022 at 8:18 AM, IHB1979 said:

NHC has landfall Wednesday, 8AM in SW Florida as major. I'm going to take a bunch of garden photos this weekend. I remember Irma was 80 miles to the west and my yard was shredded pretty good. 

Praying for all of you all over in Florida.

[bubba]

GFS run this morning has this hitting somewhere between the Florida panhandle and coast of Alabama on Friday, September 30, 2022 as a 971 millibar hurricane. This constitutes a wind speed of approximately 100 mph at landfall. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

European run this morning has this grazing Tampa on Thursday, September 29, 2022 as a 977 millibar hurricane. This constitutes a wind speed of approximately 90 mph without actual landfall. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

Split the difference and you have a 974 millibar Hurricane hitting somewhere around Apalachicola and Steinhatchee early Friday morning. This constitutes a wind speed at landfall of approximately 95 mph. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

Contrary to constant main stream warnings, hurricane models at this time have become extremely reliable five days out in both path and intensity. We can thank God that we got through Cape Verde Season without the real horrific missiles. We can hope Sidewinder Season is equally kind.

 

 

 

[JLM]

Tropical Storm Ian has likely begun its rapid intensification phase. Forecast models have consolidated to a much smaller range of possibilities generally somewhere between Apalachicola and Sarasota.

I want to make this very very clear to anyone near the west Florida coast, especially the Tampa Bay area. IT WILL NOT TAKE A DIRECT HIT FOR LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE TO OCCUR!!! Tampa Bay will be in a position to catch the storm surge, and given that the models have trended towards a much slower storm passing by Tampa, it could be a multi day event. Please listen to local officials if they tell you to evacuate!!

Not only will storm surge be an issue, but also heavy rainfall and flash flooding. If Ian is slow to progress north, up to 10 inches or more can be expected in spots. 

The wind will also be an issue for not just the landfall location, but for a wider area. A weakening major hurricane will have an expanding wind field, this means that if a storm makes landfall in the Big Bend, tropical storm force winds may extend as far east as say Jacksonville or beyond, and as far west as possibly Panama City (maybe even Destin depending on how far west Ian gets).

Folks along the Florida east coast and the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts will also possibly see increased surf and rip current potential, and with onshore flow in these areas caused by a pressure gradient between Ian and a ridge of high pressure, coastal flooding may be an issue. High surf and rip currents will be expected across the north central Gulf Coast as well, with beach erosion being possible. 

Further west across the western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Mississippi, a strong pressure gradient will form over this area just like the east coast, and this may cause strong northerly wind gusts in the 35-50 mph range, with higher gusts along the coast. This will bring down dry air on Wednesday, and there might be fire weather potential across this area on Wednesday before moisture associated with Ian moves north going into Thursday.

Southwest Florida is not out of the woods here, tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and heavy rainfall/flooding may still occur here despite Ian moving further offshore. Do not let your guard down here.

The Florida Keys are now under a Tropical Storm Watch, and while a direct hit to the Keys is not anticipated, tropical storm conditions are a possibility.

Southeast Florida will likely see some heavy rainfall, and with the eastern outer bands comes a tornado threat. A Marginal Risk for severe weather exists for the southern half of Florida on Tuesday. This threat will likely continue across the Peninsula through Wednesday or even Thursday depending on how fast Ian passes by.

The list of impacts above is very telling. It means that Ian will have a wide range of impacts for a very very large area. This is why you are told not to focus on the forecast cone, as impacts will undoubtably occur outside of the cone.

[DoomsDave]

10 hours ago, bubba said:

GFS run this morning has this hitting somewhere between the Florida panhandle and coast of Alabama on Friday, September 30, 2022 as a 971 millibar hurricane. This constitutes a wind speed of approximately 100 mph at landfall. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

European run this morning has this grazing Tampa on Thursday, September 29, 2022 as a 977 millibar hurricane. This constitutes a wind speed of approximately 90 mph without actual landfall. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

Split the difference and you have a 974 millibar Hurricane hitting somewhere around Apalachicola and Steinhatchee early Friday morning. This constitutes a wind speed at landfall of approximately 95 mph. Not good but not exactly catastrophic.

Contrary to constant main stream warnings, hurricane models at this time have become extremely reliable five days out in both path and intensity. We can thank God that we got through Cape Verde Season without the real horrific missiles. We can hope Sidewinder Season is equally kind.

 

 

 

There’s always Andrew II.

REALLY praying at that thought.

[DoomsDave]

1 hour ago, DoomsDave said:

There’s always Andrew II.

REALLY praying at that thought.

Praying and cringing in dread

[JLM]

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued further north into Southwest Florida. This advisory has also introduced Storm Surge Watches for all US coastal areas under a tropical alert. Storm surge of 2-4 feet possible across the Keys north to Bonita Beach, with 5-7 feet between Bonita Beach and Englewood.

[JLM]

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

Tropical Storm Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Storm Surge Watches, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Florida coast. All underlined location in the above list are
in the US. Locations not underlined are either in Cuba or the Cayman Islands, where Hurricane Warnings have been issued.

Edited September 26, 2022 by JLM

[bubba]

Thank you Dave. We will have an Andrew 2 but this is not it. Andrew was a Cape Verde in late August. Ian originated in the western Caribbean and is a late September storm. Ian Is a major storm and the fact that it slows down around Tampa and grazes it for such a long period of time is beguiling. That stated, there is a major difference between 185 mile an hour winds experienced in Andrew and the 90-100 mile an hour winds that will be experienced in Ian.

The latest runs have Ian ultimately making landfall between Apalachicola and Steinhatchee or a little east of Tallahassee. Winds are estimated to be approximately 90 mph upon landfall. Listen to JLM!

[JLM]

New storm surge forecast for the Florida west coast this morning.

[SeanK]

I'd stick with the Euro model.

North of Pinellas, but south of Taylor. Cat3

[bubba]

South Florida Atlantic:

[JLM]

Based on recent trends, it is possible that we have a hurricane impacting central and south Florida on Wednesday while wildfires could be started across the northwest portion of the state. This is a very very strange setup here.

[Matthew92]

3 minutes ago, JLM said:

Based on recent trends, it is possible that we have a hurricane impacting central and south Florida on Wednesday while wildfires could be started across the northwest portion of the state. This is a very very strange setup here.

It does look to be possible for us in the Panhandle to get some rain from Ian though. I hope we do because it's been since September 12th that we've had a drop!

[JLM]

8 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

It does look to be possible for us in the Panhandle to get some rain from Ian though. I hope we do because it's been since September 12th that we've had a drop!

We either have too much or not enough here, theres never an in between!

[SeanK]

A lot of folks in Dixie are looking for rain, too!

[bubba]

Both GFS and ECMWF runs show Ian grazing Tampa as a Cat 1 Hurricane and moving over north Florida as a relatively slow moving TS but dissipating by late Friday PM September 30, 2022/early AM Saturday October 1, 2022. This is no Charlie!

These runs are interesting because both show no hurricane activity whatsoever through the next 10 days of October. However, that can change very quickly. Notwithstanding the activation of every storm team moving to the scene with large fans in tow, this is a relatively minor hurricane at the end of the day. Thank God!

[Merlyn]

@bubbathe UKMET runs from a couple of days ago now pretty much match the guidance from NHS today.  A direct hit to Tampa as a Cat3 is the forecast.  There's a divergence of models, half show it skimming the coast of Tampa, and the other half show it going up I4 to Orlando and Daytona Beach.

 

[Jimbean]

I'll bet it will hit further south, maybe Fort Myers area and do either a Charley or a Irma.  Both Charley and Irma were supposed to hit Tampa. 

[Merlyn]

Here's a comprehensive set of models: https://www.weatherusa.net/tropical/models/2022/at/9

Most of these look like they were started last night, based on the start point.  Current average estimate has it landing around Tampa/Sarasota at 125mph = Cat3.

[PalmatierMeg]

1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

I'll bet it will hit further south, maybe Fort Myers area and do either a Charley or a Irma.  Both Charley and Irma were supposed to hit Tampa. 

My thoughts, too. We had only 30 minutes’ notice from the moment Charley turned right and when it slammed into us. At least we got to watch Irma take aim at us in slow motion. We finished last minute preparations earlier this morning.

[Merlyn]

1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

My thoughts, too. We had only 30 minutes’ notice from the moment Charley turned right and when it slammed into us. At least we got to watch Irma take aim at us in slow motion. We finished last minute preparations earlier this morning.

Yep, the final track depended on how it went over the Western edge of Cuba.  Right now the tracks are all shifting South to landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Cape Coral.  If the eye keeps shifting the way it has been over the last 4-8 hours, it may end up landing near Cape Coral.  The morning runs on the models are all pointing in that direction, but most have not been updated after it popped out into the Gulf.

There was always one model that was closest (historically) to predicting the course, and every time hurricane season comes around...I forget which one it is!  One of the "big models" consistently got it wrong...REALLY wrong.

Some of these were run this morning:

[Jimbean]

3 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I'll bet it will hit further south, maybe Fort Myers area and do either a Charley or a Irma.  Both Charley and Irma were supposed to hit Tampa. 

I want to say on record that I thought about this yesterday and made the quoted post before the the track was updated to show it hitting south of Tampa (now Sarasota county),  I'll bet it makes landfall in Lee county and moves up toward Kissimmee, and exits back into the Atlantic at around New Smyrna Beach.  I made this prediction in my head yesterday around noon and let's see how my prediction holds up. 

[SeanK]

WPBF 11:00 AM shows Cat3, center of cone Sarasota.