2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[D. Morrowii]

On 7/25/2022 at 4:18 AM, Looking Glass said:

Man it’s been hot and dry here for this season (I’ll probably regret saying that in 4-6 weeks).  Rainy season has been a bit of a bust other than minor 1-2 events.  

Same thing up here! My grass is half brown again after getting a couple decent shots of rain at the beginning of the month. We got a little of that rain that @JLM pointed out this morning which will help. Our norm here in Merritt Island has been around 50” over the last 3-4 years. We are going to need 30” in the next 3 months in order to catch up. I think Nov.- Dec. are usually pretty light.

[Looking Glass]

1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

Same thing up here! My grass is half brown again after getting a couple decent shots of rain at the beginning of the month. We got a little of that rain that @JLM pointed out this morning which will help. Our norm here in Merritt Island has been around 50” over the last 3-4 years. We are going to need 30” in the next 3 months in order to catch up. I think Nov.- Dec. are usually pretty light.

Yeah, it’s been really dry and hot lately.   We are getting a little rain, but we really need inches intermittently per week to get the best growth this time of year.  

Atleast today we get a little…

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Looking Glass

[JLM]

How much have yall had down there this month? Here is where it stands so far up here for both the year and month.

[D. Morrowii]

30 minutes ago, JLM said:

How much have yall had down there this month? Here is where it stands so far up here for both the year and month.

3.5 inches at my place. What is your yearly average up there? 

[Looking Glass]

Where’s an easy place to pull up totals by area?  

[JohnAndSancho]

@JLM when will it rain in Texas? 

[JLM]

1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

@JLM when will it rain in Texas? 

7 day rainfall forecast below, probably the biggest FU ive seen since the 2021 freeze towards Texas LOL

[JLM]

5 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

Where’s an easy place to pull up totals by area?  

Here is Ft Lauderdale. Below average for July, right at average for the year. These can be found on twitter. For your location, search "IEMBot_MFL" on twitter if you have that platform, and you will find that these are posted daily.

[JohnAndSancho]

2 minutes ago, JLM said:

7 day rainfall forecast below, probably the biggest FU ive seen since the 2021 freeze towards Texas LOL

That looks literally 0% promising 

 

Fam we're cooking down here. Ordinary when we talk about Texas cooking we mean smoked brisket or fajitas. Ummm this ain't ordinary. 

 

 

 

 

[JLM]

5 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

3.5 inches at my place. What is your yearly average up there? 

Looks like around 65 inches here.

[JLM]

5 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

That looks literally 0% promising 

 

Fam we're cooking down here. Ordinary when we talk about Texas cooking we mean smoked brisket or fajitas. Ummm this ain't ordinary. 

 

 

 

 

By this time last year we were sitting like 10-20 inches above average for the year. It was crazy with rainfall last year. Wishing for a weak tropical system to bring yall some rain over there sooner rather than later, doesnt look like a possibility within the next 10 days though.

[JLM]

I am happy to report that through at least August 6th, no activity is expected. After the 6th GEFS flares up a little bit in the Gulf/Caribbean. We will see if anything happens, its a minimal signal for now especially given the fact that only 1-2 EPS members show something.

[bubba]

Thank you!

[SeanK]

Every year, same GW BS from the NWS.

"This year more active than normal. Expect 57 named storms"

Alas, Saharan sand extinguishing a lot of wishes this summer.

[SeanK]

..

Edited August 4, 2022 by SeanK

[JLM]

9 hours ago, SeanK said:

Every year, same GW BS from the NWS.

"This year more active than normal. Expect 57 named storms"

Alas, Saharan sand extinguishing a lot of wishes this summer.

They have never called for 57 storms before, that is just ridiculous. In fact, new forecasts were released today and the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes have been slightly reduced. Saharan dust is pretty typical for the time of year. The beginning of August can definitely be dead. As of right now we have right around 90% of the hurricane season left to go through. That being said, its possible that this season may be "back weighted", meaning that the peak of the season is later in September or quite possibly even October. You can expect to have storms churning in the Atlantic by the end of the month as the pattern flips to a more favorable Atlantic. Until then, we watch and wait for the season to ramp up.

[bubba]

August 15-September 15. Herbert’Box 1 to end of September ( Cape Verde season). Herbert’s Box 2 October on (Sidewinder season). For some reason this year we have substantial Saharan dust!

[JLM]

1 hour ago, bubba said:

August 15-September 15. Herbert’Box 1 to end of September ( Cape Verde season). Herbert’s Box 2 October on (Sidewinder season). For some reason this year we have substantial Saharan dust!

Saharan dust is typical for this time of year...

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/saharan-dust-atlantic-hurricane-tropical-storm-development-august
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/weather/hurricane-season-saharan-dust-wxn/index.html
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/what-is-the-saharan-air-layer/

[JLM]

Looky what we got here. If i remember correctly, this is the first one since early July. Anyway, a tropical wave is set to move off the coast of Africa by Monday. Looking at global models and their ensembles, conditions look to be somewhat favorable for development once it moves offshore. The next name is Danielle.

[D. Morrowii]

A couple runs from Tropical Tidbits through Mikes Weather Page.

[JLM]

Chances now up to 40% in 5 days. Below is the development area and what it currently looks like.

 

[bubba]

Seems to be heading a little bit north for us. It was already at 22° north just after it left Africa. That stated, who knows. Cape Verde season has started…

[JLM]

Invest 97L did not develop. It no longer has development potential. As of this morning, the NHC has marked a new spot near the north central Gulf Coast. This disturbance will drift westward towards Texas over the next day or two. This disturbance has a 10% chance to develop just off the coast of Texas (personally, i feel the odds may be higher than 10%). This will be a rainmaker for Texas, which is just exactly what yall need over there.

[bubba]

August 15, 2022. Cape Verde season has begun...

[JLM]

As promised, the Atlantic is beginning to wake up. We currently have only 1 disturbance out there right now with a 20% chance of development in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance will likely be a problem for Mexico only regardless of development. Otherwise, forecast models are really beginning to show the Atlantic waking up. Looking at the EPS and GEFS, they both advertise at least some level of support for about 2-3 systems before the end of the month. This is what we have been waiting for, and now its coming. Get prepared ASAP, you dont want to be waiting in several hour long lines to get supplies if/when something comes you way!

[chinandega81]

2 hours ago, JLM said:

As promised, the Atlantic is beginning to wake up. We currently have only 1 disturbance out there right now with a 20% chance of development in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance will likely be a problem for Mexico only regardless of development. Otherwise, forecast models are really beginning to show the Atlantic waking up. Looking at the EPS and GEFS, they both advertise at least some level of support for about 2-3 systems before the end of the month. This is what we have been waiting for, and now its coming. Get prepared ASAP, you dont want to be waiting in several hour long lines to get supplies if/when something comes you way!

Correct me if i'm mistaken, but it seems like the pattern will turn whatever develops, out to sea. I see a lot of east coast troughing.

[JLM]

7 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Correct me if i'm mistaken, but it seems like the pattern will turn whatever develops, out to sea. I see a lot of east coast troughing.

It depends. Some waves may be able to sneak west before developing. Any that develop east will have a much greater chance at recurving.

[chinandega81]

21 hours ago, JLM said:

It depends. Some waves may be able to sneak west before developing. Any that develop east will have a much greater chance at recurving.

Sounds like we will just have to wait and see then. It does feel odd to not be bombared with storms. Perhaps this will be a respite year or just a very late start. I notice a lot of large, easily topple over type trees that are quite big. It that shows how long it's really been since we have had hurricane force winds here for such weak trees to get so large.

[bubba]

The later the better.

[Xenon]

On 8/17/2022 at 6:40 AM, JLM said:

As promised, the Atlantic is beginning to wake up. We currently have only 1 disturbance out there right now with a 20% chance of development in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance will likely be a problem for Mexico only regardless of development. 

Looks like it's heading for the lower Rio Grande Valley 

[JLM]

Alrighty, we have had an uptick in activity recently, which should be expected for August. 

First off, i want to mention that Potential Tropical Cyclone Four did not become a named storm. Because this disturbance was designated and given a number, the rest of the storms will be offset for the season. For instance, Danielle is the 4th storm on the list and should be 04L, however this year it will be 05L because of PTC 04L. 

Invest 90L, which was a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago, lost its development chances and is now longer being monitored.

We have 2 new disturbances out there right now. Their futures are HIGHLY uncertain. Obviously given that the first disturbance is closer to land, it bears watching even more. It currently has a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. Forecast models have recently been showing an uptick, with the GFS being the most extreme (we will not be talking about that unless more models jump on board with a solution like this). GFS and Euro ensembles have also been showing some increased support recently. Given the environment that this disturbance will be heading into, especially as it heads west across the Caribbean, i do not see how this will not develop to some extent. This one bears watching over the next 5 days and beyond. Refer to official information put out by your local meteorologists and local National Weather Service offices. Also to see the updates for the below maps, which are released at 2 AM/PM and 8AM/PM EDT everyday, check out the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov)


Now for the next disturbance, which is a tropical wave that has yet to move off the coast of Africa. Most models that develop this show it recurving at some point before reaching the islands, however we should still monitor to see what may happen. Chances of development with this wave is 20% over the next 5 days. More details will be available once this hits the water, as models have had a tendency to show a great amount of support before it reaches water, but when it finally reaches the water nearly all of the support goes away. This has especially been a problem so far this season. Stay tuned for future updates. 

[bubba]

Thank you! Did the first disturbance you reference come off of Africa or develop in the Caribbean? The second one definitely bears full attention.

[JLM]

2 minutes ago, bubba said:

Thank you! Did the first disturbance you reference come off of Africa or develop in the Caribbean? The second one definitely bears full attention.

The first disturbance may have had some origin from Africa, but it seems like its embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This first disturbance was also helped along by a cold surge that took place over South America, which is leading to a favorable MJO forming over the Caribbean. Its a very interesting situation for sure, but development chances are strictly reliant on whether or not this sustain convection (showers & thunderstorms). I have marked all of the current features on the most recent satellite image from Tropical Tidbits.

[Looking Glass]

Some tropical storms would be nice.    We are about 8-9” below average for rainfall for the past 2 months.  That’s pretty dry and pretty sunny for the hottest time of year.  

[JohnAndSancho]

This hurricane season is so slow, my phone tried to autocorrect "hurricane" to "burrito*

[JLM]

Welp, August had no tropical storms or hurricanes for the first time in like 25 years or something like that. Funny enough, to start your first day of September we have Tropical Depression Five. Five is located way on up in the subtropics and isnt expected to impact anyone within the next 5 days. Yes, it is forecast to become Danielle, and yes it is also forecast to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Could it get stronger than the current forecast? Yes, it very well could. Here is the forecast:


Next up is Invest 91L which has a high development probability within the next 5 days (80%). 91L is currently expected to move generally NW as it makes an attempt to develop, but it should be noted that really any deepening of this system will make it turn northeast. Models generally agree right now that IF 91L ever does end up being a hurricane, it will occur after it recurves. If 91L does not end up deepening and recurving, it will pretty much sit there in one spot in the SW Atlantic until something either comes by and pulls it out to sea or high pressure builds in over it and pushes it west. Dont be alarmed though, this is 1) Highly unlikely and 2) even if it does end up west it will pretty much be dead beyond any point of saving. This is the general theme that can be seen in the GEFS ensemble plots below.



Last and probably least, we have newly designated Invest 94L out by the Cabo Verde Islands. It has a low development chance through the next 48 hours (30%) because thats really the only amount of time it has (48 hours) before it moves into unfavorable conditions. This one is really just a rainmaker for the Cabo Verde Islands and nothing more. This one, regardless of intensity, will turn north around the 5 day mark give or take. 


PS: NHC updated while i was typing this, so there may be timing inconsistencies between the NHC graphics.

[bubba]

Thank you and this is “ Texas Hold ‘em” season. Still ready to fasten your seatbelts!

[JLM]

No real changes have been seen today in our Invest areas (91L and 94L), although development chances for 94L are down to 10% from 30% this morning. 

In other news, Tropical Depression Five has been named Tropical Storm Danielle. Danielle has organized pretty quickly today and already has sustained winds of 65 mph, with that Danielle is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow and a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday afternoon. Below is the forecast track for Danielle, as well as an animated satellite image which is valid as of the time this post was posted. You can see how Danielle made an attempt to close off an inner core, but as of now it appears to have lost some steam in doing so. You can also see that there is some shear over the storm as well.

Edited September 2, 2022 by JLM

[JLM]

Major changes tonight with Invest 91L, a plane has flown into the invest and found that the center of circulation has become better defined and pressure have fallen some. With this, the National Hurricane Center will issue advisories on Tropical Storm Earl within the next 40 minutes. Looks like no other disturbances will pop up at least for a little bit. How long is a little bit, i cant tell you. Sometimes, especially in the most favorable time of the year, we can get storms to develop quickly under the right conditions. The next name is Fiona!

[bubba]

I am officially woken up. Earl just hit Herbert’s Box 1. It appears to be predicted to remain westerly. The five day has it at 25.2° N latitude and 65° W longitude.
 

NHC seems to indicate current unfavorable environment for intensification but a Cape Verde that hits Herbert’s Box 1 on September 3rd is a scary proposition for South Florida…