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Hardiness zone changes 1990-2015


MarkbVet
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Here's some zone maps from Arborday.org, showing zone changes up until 2015....  interesting to see.  So. Oregon is getting some zone 9 inland areas now, close to where I'll be moving.   It's getting hotter, folks!  So, sip some cold drinks and ... Grow Them Palms!!  

USDA climate zone changes.png

USDA 2015 climate zones.jpeg

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I wish there was a more specific map breaking out where certain palms will and won’t grow long term not based on only the zone number map. I think it can be very misleading to people just getting into the gardening game. Theres a few others like heat zone or sunset zone map? 
@MarkbVet there’s no question things are getting warmer everywhere though. Daffodils and crocuses are pushing up here, all my fruit trees and bushes have turned red (a sign they’re going to bud very soon) geese have been flying north over my house. All these signs of spring are at least a month early from where they used to be 3-4 years ago, it’s literally still February….

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35 minutes ago, teddytn said:

I wish there was a more specific map breaking out where certain palms will and won’t grow long term not based on only the zone number map. I think it can be very misleading to people just getting into the gardening game. Theres a few others like heat zone or sunset zone map? 
@MarkbVet there’s no question things are getting warmer everywhere though. Daffodils and crocuses are pushing up here, all my fruit trees and bushes have turned red (a sign they’re going to bud very soon) geese have been flying north over my house. All these signs of spring are at least a month early from where they used to be 3-4 years ago, it’s literally still February….

Very complicated for palms. But I am in New Texas Zone 9, but had a Zone 7a last year.

Yesterday picture. The end result after of a 30 year zone average of 9a, but after one night of Zone 7a. 4*F.

Pacific Northwest should look at 1950, to see what could happen tomorrow.

4C596243-4E6D-4550-9DB4-C17C832D8F10.jpeg

644C7ABF-9ED0-44BD-89B6-13C6E7522718.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms
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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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Zone maps are intended to provide, in my opinion, a generalized guideline for average temperatures across a set period of time in any given location represented. They however, are NOT a finite or absolute truth. They have several limitations that others here may be better adept at explaining. In theory a "zone map" that takes things into account like elevation, and min/max temperatures across recorded history may be a better "definitive" (and I use that loosely) guide for planting. I hope someday we have that kind of data represented in a visual format. I would think that it may be quite useful. 

As @Collectorpalms (and most of Texas for that matter) has demonstrated, just because your property lies within a given zone - does not mean it is not a calculated risk with planting anything - whether it be a queen palm in 9a, or a Banana in Saint Louis. 

Best you can do, is take the risk and benefit from the rewards (or gift of mother nature) for as long as possible. 30 years, or 100. We are all at the mercy of this planets climactic shifts on any given growing season. 

If you live in the continental US then you are subject to events like these at least once in your lifetime. Just be prepared, and keep these things in mind.

^_^

 

 

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What I have seen on this forum time and time again are areas that fluctuate a lot downward from their stated zone.  Someone says I'm in zone 8a for example and I look up their temps and see several zone 7a or 7b temps in the last 10 years is pretty common.  Some areas seem to do this more than others. 

The plantzones are based on a 30 year average of the absolute low each year but lets look at how that can be deceptive......

We'll use 4 made up years to keep it a simple example.  This is a extreme example to illustrate a point.  I understand temps generally don't vary this much

Yearly lows / Average temp / zone

-10F, 0F, 20F, 30F  / Avg 10F / zone 8a   ( But the -10F temp will kill all your palms and you thought you could plant 8a palms)

I feel to grow palms (especially if you don't want to protect) you should do your own analysis of your yearly lows for as many years as you feel comfortable (10, 30, 50?) and plant based on the absolute low you are comfortable with.  Forget about zone and plant based on observed lows.  I think this is what @Dartolution was saying

Of course a record low can still happen and we know how that goes.  It's always a gamble

Edited by Allen
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Youtube (TN Tropics) 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), louisiana(5), palmetto (1)  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

Very complicated for palms. But I am in New Texas Zone 9, but had a Zone 7a last year.

Yesterday picture. The end result after of a 30 year zone average of 9a, but after one night of Zone 7a. 4*F.

Pacific Northwest should look at 1950, to see what could happen tomorrow.

4C596243-4E6D-4550-9DB4-C17C832D8F10.jpeg

 

Heartbreaking, so sorry :crying:

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I think of as comparing 8b portland to 8b Austin. Before the freeze there was washies, medjools, palmettos very common. Portland struggles with palmettos(click the link to see what I mean

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Inground-   1x Syagrus romanzoffiana 2x Livingstona Chinensis 5x Phoenix Robelleni 

In Pots-  3x Sabal Mexicana 5x Phoenix dactylifera 4x Sabal Palmetto 3x Livingstona Chinensis 3x Ravenea Rivularis 6x Cycas Revoluta

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1 hour ago, Allen said:

What I have seen on this forum time and time again are areas that fluctuate a lot downward from their stated zone.  Someone says I'm in zone 8a for example and I look up their temps and see several zone 7a or 7b temps in the last 10 years is pretty common.  Some areas seem to do this more than others. 

The plantzones are based on a 30 year average of the absolute low each year but lets look at how that can be deceptive......

We'll use 4 made up years to keep it a simple example.  This is a extreme example to illustrate a point.  I understand temps generally don't vary this much

Yearly lows / Average temp / zone

-10F, 0F, 20F, 30F  / Avg 10F / zone 8a   ( But the -10F temp will kill all your palms and you thought you could plant 8a palms)

I feel to grow palms (especially if you don't want to protect) you should do your own analysis of your yearly lows for as many years as you feel comfortable (10, 30, 50?) and plant based on the absolute low you are comfortable with.  Forget about zone and plant based on observed lows.  I think this is what @Dartolution was saying

Of course a record low can still happen and we know how that goes.  It's always a gamble

Good thoughts, all.   Nice thing in Oregon, is zone 8 is pretty reliably zone 8...  we don't have -10F ever, at least not in my lifetime (60+ years).   East of the Rockies, you can get cold Canadian air sweeping down in to southern reaches of the  USA on occasion, whereas where I'm at a really cold spell is 10F (and that, uncommonly).   Of course, a really unusual cold event can happen-- really rarely lol.  I'll take it!   Overall it is getting warmer, and our winters are less harsh, and less often so, than in the 1980's.  Gives me hope for planting in the ground, when the time comes.  I'll be living within shouting distance of Calif. then, which helps a bit too.  

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2 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

Very complicated for palms. But I am in New Texas Zone 9, but had a Zone 7a last year.

Yesterday picture. The end result after of a 30 year zone average of 9a, but after one night of Zone 7a. 4*F.

Pacific Northwest should look at 1950, to see what could happen tomorrow.

4C596243-4E6D-4550-9DB4-C17C832D8F10.jpeg

644C7ABF-9ED0-44BD-89B6-13C6E7522718.jpeg

Wow, lots of loss.  Is that  CIDP looking healthy there?  

 

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6 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

Wow, lots of loss.  Is that  CIDP looking healthy there?  

:unsure:

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10 hours ago, Little Tex said:

I think of as comparing 8b portland to 8b Austin. Before the freeze there was washies, medjools, palmettos very common. Portland struggles with palmettos(click the link to see what I mean

I think you’re mistaken. There was never any palmettos planted in that location. Just some trachys, wags and a BxJ. For whatever reason some of those palms and the Albizzia(zone 6) failed to thrive. To this day that garden is still full of palms. 
 

Here’s the largest palmetto I know of just outside of Salem which is considerably colder than downtown Portland which is classified as zone 9a along the Willamette. The reason you don’t see many Sabal palms around here is they grow much slower.  Our cool summer nights and lack of humidity definitely slows them down. So you really need to get a larger plant otherwise you’re going to wait a long time. 
 

 

Palms from more moderate areas do well here. There’s about 30 species we can grow but dry heat lovers like Phoenix and Washingtonia suffer mold and fungus issues in winter from the wet damp  it doesn’t get cold enough to kill them outright  

Here’s one of my own Sabals, I have many species of them throughout my garden. None have ever been damaged by winter.  

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I think you’re mistaken. There was never any palmettos planted in that location. Just some trachys, wags and a BxJ. For whatever reason some of those palms and the Albizzia(zone 6) failed to thrive. To this day that garden is still full of palms. 
 

Here’s the largest palmetto I know of just outside of Salem which is considerably colder than downtown Portland which is classified as zone 9a along the Willamette. The reason you don’t see many Sabal palms around here is they grow much slower.  Our cool summer nights and lack of humidity definitely slows them down. So you really need to get a larger plant otherwise you’re going to wait a long time. 
 

 

Palms from more moderate areas do well here. There’s about 30 species we can grow but dry heat lovers like Phoenix and Washingtonia suffer mold and fungus issues in winter from the wet damp  it doesn’t get cold enough to kill them outright  

Here’s one of my own Sabals, I have many species of them throughout my garden. None have ever been damaged by winter.  

 

 

Yeah, the Sabal king!  (Oregon-wise anyway lol)

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2 hours ago, Swolte said:

:unsure:

Mis-typed....  was trying to ask "Is that a CIDP"...it looks alive to me, but how?  Or am I mistaken and it's something else?  Leaves look too long for a Jubaea? 

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23 minutes ago, MarkbVet said:

Mis-typed....  was trying to ask "Is that a CIDP"...it looks alive to me, but how?  Or am I mistaken and it's something else?  Leaves look too long for a Jubaea? 

Are you talking the palm to the right of the big palmetto?  It’s a Butia. 

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3 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Are you talking the palm to the right of the big palmetto?  It’s a Butia. 

The one to the right of the driveway (as we face it, anyway).  Up in front.   I think I see the one way back, that you're talking about.  But the one in front, that appears to be intact amongst all the destruction... what is that?   And is it alive, or just awaiting dismemberment?  (forgive me, i'm partly color blind, so green and brown aren't always---  distinct lol.) 

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7 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

The one to the right of the driveway (as we face it, anyway).  Up in front.   I think I see the one way back, that you're talking about.  But the one in front, that appears to be intact amongst all the destruction... what is that?   And is it alive, or just awaiting dismemberment?  (forgive me, i'm partly color blind, so green and brown aren't always---  distinct lol.) 

Yeah I'm pretty sure that's his CIDP and it survived the freeze.

Unfortunately the city is now saying it has to be removed for sidewalk expansion. Talk about being kicked while your down right?

Here's that thread 

 

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So the gist of the story is, the lowest winter temps are becoming less frequent in any zone. But they still happen. So we'll end up protecting our marginal species less but we'll still need to plan on protecting them. And less need to protect means people can be more adventurous with what they try. 

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10 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

Mis-typed....  was trying to ask "Is that a CIDP"...it looks alive to me, but how?  Or am I mistaken and it's something else?  Leaves look too long for a Jubaea? 

Ah sorry, I should have explained that expression. It was one of like 'yikes, there's a sensitive topic'.  One of CPs large palm that came through like a champ now is threatened by the city. Unbelievable.  

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No change for Vashon island it seems, PNW.  Wish we would warm up half a zone higher id be a solid 9A, marginal now, were mostly 9a winters but every 3-5 years we have 8b (this year low of 18f) but most years it stays in the 20s. Growing up as a kid id pray for arctic snow and ice and was thoroughly disapointed every year, now i just want sunshine. I can drive hour and a half to the mountains for snow. Not a fan of global warming due to pollution of our planet,  but hey if its gonna happen anyways at least let me grow more palms!

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9 hours ago, floridaPalmMan said:

Yeah I'm pretty sure that's his CIDP and it survived the freeze.

Unfortunately the city is now saying it has to be removed for sidewalk expansion. Talk about being kicked while your down right?

Here's that thread 

 

wow...how the heck did that survive when so many of his palms were toast!?   Might have to try a CIDP myself when i move to So. Oregon.  Seen them on the coast in Oregon, but it's not nearly as cold in winter as inland.   Love to get some seed from that plant!   

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6 hours ago, Swolte said:

Ah sorry, I should have explained that expression. It was one of like 'yikes, there's a sensitive topic'.  One of CPs large palm that came through like a champ now is threatened by the city. Unbelievable.  

I'd just move it further back in the yard, if it can survive transplant.   

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30 minutes ago, MarkbVet said:

wow...how the heck did that survive when so many of his palms were toast!?   Might have to try a CIDP myself when i move to So. Oregon.  Seen them on the coast in Oregon, but it's not nearly as cold in winter as inland.   Love to get some seed from that plant!   

There are like two dozen or more within a few miles of his house. I don't recall seeing very many dead ones, maybe one or two 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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10 hours ago, Xenon said:

There are like two dozen or more within a few miles of his house. I don't recall seeing very many dead ones, maybe one or two 

Exaggerating a bit much? I had no idea that College Station was the CIDP Capital. Hmmmmm…. Can you tell me where the two dozen or more mature canaries are that are within three miles of me? 

Seems like I’d know about them. I think your numbers are off. But I’d like to be proven wrong.

there is 1 at the Hilton, very protected microclimate. Neighbors I planted isn’t very big, it’s about to fall over from root die back going to be removed by sidewalk,  there three at Fuegos not very big. There was another a couple neighborhoods over, not sure if it lived. 

beyond three miles, planted two in Bryan that are nice size. South College Station I saw one posted online here. And pebble creek, about 10 miles south there are 2 or 3 that were the largest. I am not sure if they lived. Two were also 2-3 miles south of A&M at some duplexes near Dowling Rd.

Edited by Collectorpalms
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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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14 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Exaggerating a bit much? I had no idea that College Station was the CIDP Capital. Hmmmmm…. Can you tell me where the two dozen or more mature canaries are that are within three miles of me? 

Seems like I’d know about them. I think your numbers are off. But I’d like to be proven wrong.

there is 1 at the Hilton, very protected microclimate. Neighbors I planted isn’t very big, it’s about to fall over from root die back going to be removed by sidewalk,  there three at Fuegos not very big. There was another a couple neighborhoods over, not sure if it lived. 

beyond three miles, planted two in Bryan that are nice size. South College Station I saw one posted online here. And pebble creek, about 10 miles south there are 2 or 3 that were the largest. I am not sure if they lived. Two were also 2-3 miles south of A&M at some duplexes near Dowling Rd.

Oh there are more, at least 5 in the residential area within 2 miles of Farm Patch. At least 3 near Texas Ave/University. I don't intentionally look for them, but they are around. 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Oh there are more, at least 5 in the residential area within 2 miles of Farm Patch. At least 3 near Texas Ave/University. I don't intentionally look for them, but they are around. 

The ones near Texas Ave/University are the ones I mentioned. One house that had 4 near Farm Patch I think are all gone. They lost every palm except a majesty that was small and planted on their foundation

Regardless, they did better than anything other than Sabal Palmetto/Mexicana as far as common palms.

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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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17 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

One house that had 4 near Farm Patch I think are all gone. 

Well I drive past 4 or 5 CIDP a few times a week... neighborhood around North Ave/College Ave/Texas Ave. There's also a trunking one on Finfeather Rd

Somewhere in south College Station (can't recall) there is a Phoenix dactylifera/hybrid 

 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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There's a fat one at Woodlands Ridge Drive. I think it lived. A big one in Nantucket too.
:)

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16 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

how the heck did that survive when so many of his palms were toast!?

I think you are mistaking the hardiness of these with the hardiness of medjools. I have only seen one dead one in Houston and not dead because of the freeze. A big problem that led to the demise of so many washingtonia is that they hate wet roots when its cold, CDIP can handle it better.

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Inground-   1x Syagrus romanzoffiana 2x Livingstona Chinensis 5x Phoenix Robelleni 

In Pots-  3x Sabal Mexicana 5x Phoenix dactylifera 4x Sabal Palmetto 3x Livingstona Chinensis 3x Ravenea Rivularis 6x Cycas Revoluta

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1 hour ago, Swolte said:

There's a fat one at Woodlands Ridge Drive. I think it lived. A big one in Nantucket too.
:)

Nantucket was somewhat palmy at one time, but not been there in many years.  At one house in Nantucket there were 2, plus a taller Sylvestris and some other palms ( washingtonia). all planted before 2007 according to google maps. There looks like a med and only 1 Canary that remain.

Woodland Ridge Drive, behind Lowes is a relatively new street, couldn't find that one.

It was implied that there were 2+ dozen big boys in my neighborhood, those are 10 miles south. I still havent found the ones in my neighborhood. I had one planted at the Brazos River as well that lived, that is about 17 miles away. Something that was rare now seems common, because it is about the only big palm that could take the freeze and live.

Edited by Collectorpalms
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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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4 hours ago, Xenon said:

Well I drive past 4 or 5 CIDP a few times a week... neighborhood around North Ave/College Ave/Texas Ave. There's also a trunking one on Finfeather Rd

Somewhere in south College Station (can't recall) there is a Phoenix dactylifera/hybrid 

 

Only True Date that was alive anywhere near me, came back and then declined, the one behind bryan Walmart.

Edited by Collectorpalms
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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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If I believe that I am now in z6 instead of z5 will

that keep me warm when it gets to -20F again.

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5 hours ago, Little Tex said:

I think you are mistaking the hardiness of these with the hardiness of medjools. I have only seen one dead one in Houston and not dead because of the freeze. A big problem that led to the demise of so many washingtonia is that they hate wet roots when its cold, CDIP can handle it better.

Well, CIDP are usually rated reliable only into zone 9,  possibly a little into zone 8, but 4F is down into lower zone 7.   Didn't expect ANY date palms (including canaries) to survive that.  My only guess is it was a brief dip to that low temp, then right back up.  

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4 hours ago, Jimhardy said:

If I believe that I am now in z6 instead of z5 will

that keep me warm when it gets to -20F again.

None of that is warm lol!  Zone 6 is still brrrr...   but hey maybe a bit warmER.   It's all relative, right?  :yay:

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1 hour ago, MarkbVet said:

Well, CIDP are usually rated reliable only into zone 9,  possibly a little into zone 8, but 4F is down into lower zone 7.   Didn't expect ANY date palms (including canaries) to survive that.  My only guess is it was a brief dip to that low temp, then right back up.  

well CDIP have longer tolerance

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Inground-   1x Syagrus romanzoffiana 2x Livingstona Chinensis 5x Phoenix Robelleni 

In Pots-  3x Sabal Mexicana 5x Phoenix dactylifera 4x Sabal Palmetto 3x Livingstona Chinensis 3x Ravenea Rivularis 6x Cycas Revoluta

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3 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

Well, CIDP are usually rated reliable only into zone 9,  possibly a little into zone 8, but 4F is down into lower zone 7.   Didn't expect ANY date palms (including canaries) to survive that.  My only guess is it was a brief dip to that low temp, then right back up.  

I won't rehash the February 2021 Texas Freeze to death, but it was FAR FAR FAAAR from brief, for Central and North Texas to the point of breaking records for longest freeze in recorded history for some cities.

Edited by Collectorpalms

30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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That was brutal :(

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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3 hours ago, MarkbVet said:

Well, CIDP are usually rated reliable only into zone 9,  possibly a little into zone 8, but 4F is down into lower zone 7.   Didn't expect ANY date palms (including canaries) to survive that.  My only guess is it was a brief dip to that low temp, then right back up.  

 

14 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

I won't rehash the February 2021 Texas Freeze to death, but it was FAR FAR FAAAR from brief, for Central and North Texas to the point of breaking records for longest freeze in recorded history for some cities.

In the grand scheme of things I say yes to both counts above here.  The duration of the Feb '21 Texas freeze was incredible, it's why even down here in Corpus the damage was much more severe than I would have expected by just looking at the ultimate low.  But just because a CIDP in TX can survive 4 degrees doesn't mean it will survive anywhere in zone 7, let alone 7a.  On a larger scale, the TX freeze was brief because it was a single event (albeit a week-long single event), whereas in zone 7 you might also have an ultimate low of 4 degrees, but throughout the season you also probably had two freezes of 8 degrees, and handful at 10 or 12, and a multitude of freezes in the teens stretched over a lengthy winter, and a CIDP just won't take that, very few palms will without protection.  That's why palm diversity really starts opening up at 9a, even if a zone 9 can experience zone 7 or 8 temps from time to time.

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Corpus Christi, TX, near salt water, zone 9b/10a! Except when it isn't and everything gets nuked back to the stone age of zone 8.

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11 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

Woodland Ridge Drive, behind Lowes is a relatively new street, couldn't find that one.

Its on google maps. See below,  image 2019.

I believe the two large washies in the street next to it (Rocky meadows) survived too.

Canary Screenshot 2022-02-22 201142.png

Edited by Swolte
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3 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

I won't rehash the February 2021 Texas Freeze to death, but it was FAR FAR FAAAR from brief, for Central and North Texas to the point of breaking records for longest freeze in recorded history for some cities.

Yes but wasn't the 4F only one day, at least in this guy's location.... even though it was 'freezing' (below 32F) a lot longer?  I thought the person with the CIDP post (and devastated front yard) said it was 4F just one day.. If most of the 'freezing temps' were 15F or higher, that's within the CIDP wheelhouse for survival.   What sort of cold were they actually exposed to over that bad weather spell, temp wise...I'm very curious.   Should the CIDP be rated zone 8 hardy instead of zone 9, do you think?   

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