Pacific Northwest Arctic Outbreak?

[Collectorpalms]

GFS seems like it wants to target you guys with some very bitter temperatures. Below zero for Seattle and low single digits in Portland. 

GFS nailed Texas last year this far in advance. 
 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Paradise Found]

By tomorrow it will likely be a totally different forecast!

It is going to get chilly and cold with snow in the forecast for sure come this weekend and early next week. It all depends on if we have clear or cloudy night on how cold it gets. No ones talking about record cold anywhere here, at least not yet. 

[Collectorpalms]

7 minutes ago, Paradise Found said:

By tomorrow it will likely be a totally different forecast!

It is going to get chilly and cold with snow in the forecast for sure come this weekend and early next week. It all depends on if we have clear or cloudy night on how cold it gets. No ones talking about record cold anywhere here, at least not yet. 

Uh huh….. NWS Seattle warning homeless and people without heat to expects 10s coming .

[Chester B]

I'm freaking out a little bit to be honest.  Just bought 20 strings of mini Christmas lights and 100' roll of frost cloth.  Nothing on the local news here about it getting really cold yet, but I am seeing many days just above freezing after Christmas.  If we keep the clouds it will lessen the impact.  I've never seen cold like this stay for more than a couple days.  I sure hope this doesn't pan out.  These numbers are literally changing every 20 minutes, it's going to be a long couple of weeks.

 

I guess the last bad one was in 2008, which was before I moved out this way.

 

.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Chester B

[Paradise Found]

23 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Uh huh….. NWS Seattle warning homeless and people without heat to expects 10s coming .

Time will tell for sure. Our weather changes very quickly around here.  However! I did see a low next weeks wednesday at 19F for the airport which runs colder than my area. 

I'm not freaking until after christmas. .. alright maybe Christmas eve!

[Chester B]

1 minute ago, Paradise Found said:

Time will tell for sure. Our weather changes very quickly around here.  However! I did see a low next weeks wednesday at 19F for the airport which runs colder than my area. 

I'm not freaking until after christmas. .. alright maybe Christmas eve!

I'm going to have to lean on your wisdom and experience.  This is going to put a damper on the holidays for me if this pans out.

[Paradise Found]

10 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I'm going to have to lean on your wisdom and experience.  This is going to put a damper on the holidays for me if this pans out.

Just Hope for the Best but Plan for the worst, lol!  

This winter I will cover the Aloes with greenhouse popup. They did fine last winters with out it,  low of 25F, and 14" of snow all at once in three days did no faze them. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Paradise Found

[Meangreen94z]

Nobody on here believed Collectorpalms last February about Texas. The local forecasts didn’t align with his predictions until the last second. That NFS may end up being wrong but I would prepare like it’s what’s coming. 

[ShadyDan]

Slightly concerned myself, but the real cold is still a ways out. I see absolute lows for my location anywhere from -5C (totally fine with that) to -14C (no thanks!), depending on the model. 
 

During one of our outbreaks last year, GFS predicted -13C for me at one point. Coldest I saw was -5C, so that model definitely missed the mark. 
 

We will see how things look closer to Christmas, should have a better idea if I need to protect anything by then. 

[Paradise Found]

30 minutes ago, ShadyDan said:

Slightly concerned myself, but the real cold is still a ways out. I see absolute lows for my location anywhere from -5C (totally fine with that) to -14C (no thanks!), depending on the model. 

I found the coldest for me at 7F and the warmest at 27F the coldest nights.  I'll be seeing what the local forecasters are saying about this. Right now they are just talking about the snow, and whether it will be clear cold or cloudy warmer cold. 

[Trustandi]

It is very concerning. Which weather forecast is more accurate do you guys think? I looked at 3 different weather forecasts (wunderground, accuweather, and dark sky). Wunderground shows the worst forecast for next week.

Oh btw, Fred Meyer have sales on all Christmas lights 40%.

[Chester B]

29 minutes ago, Trustandi said:

It is very concerning. Which weather forecast is more accurate do you guys think? I looked at 3 different weather forecasts (wunderground, accuweather, and dark sky). Wunderground shows the worst forecast for next week.

Oh btw, Fred Meyer have sales on all Christmas lights 40%.

Got 20 strings there today actually!

[ColdBonsai]

Hrmmm... Seattle going below zero would break the 1950 record, and I'd hate to think what that would mean for us in the inland Northwest. 

Still taking a wait and see approach for how cold it will actually get. Winter forecasts here tend to change suddenly and substantially. 

But then again it hasn't gone below 16 degrees at my house for the past couple winters, so we're probably due for some cold.

[Collectorpalms]

The European Model Says to GFS, I can match that forecast. Brrr…

Texan Grilling and Seattle Chilling….

Edited December 21, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Collectorpalms]

Canadian Model. Very Cold but a little more progressive pattern, more typical. 

[Collectorpalms]

Hmmmmm……bitter cold “risk.”

Edited December 21, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Collectorpalms]

[Collectorpalms]

[RJ]

Ecmf and ensembles 850mb anomalies look very concerning. 

[UK_Palms]

I’ve just looked at the GFS model and it isn’t looking good if you are in the PNW. The last few days of December look bad enough, but it’s the run beyond that in the first week of January that appears to be the main concern. Here is the run up until the 30th December at midday. Surely that can’t be a high of -5C (22F) in Portland at midday!? This is in degrees C. 

Here is the run until 4th January, with the cold far more severe and widespread into the other states. It looks like it will be a pretty prolonged saga if it comes to fruition. There is obviously a chance that it will be downscaled considerably between now and then, but having the ECMWF model in agreement with the GFS is never a good sign. 

It also looks like a possible plume into the Midwest and down through Texas into the Gulf of Mexico. I’m guessing @Collectorpalms is aware of this possibility on the latest GFS run? I’m pretty sure that wasn’t on the forecast models last night was it? Definitely something to monitor going into the New Year. 

 

8 hours ago, Trustandi said:

It is very concerning. Which weather forecast is more accurate do you guys think? I looked at 3 different weather forecasts (wunderground, accuweather, and dark sky). Wunderground shows the worst forecast for next week.

Oh btw, Fred Meyer have sales on all Christmas lights 40%.

Whatever forecast you look at, make sure the data comes via the GFS model really since you are in the States. The American model should be more reliable and better at predicting American weather, at least in theory. I mean it’s closer to home and all that. I assume Wunderground gets it’s forecasts from GFS data, or is it NOAA fed?

While the ECMWF is pretty reliable, it is based out of Shinfield, England and is better suited for European forecasting. Likewise, I wouldn’t really trust the American GFS that much when it comes to European forecasts either. Both are decent models and I use them both when checking my forecasts here, but GFS is clearly better suited for North America and ECMWF is better suited for Europe. Goes without saying really.

If both models align with severe cold somewhere, that is bad news then, since one model often contradicts the other to some degree as they battle it out. It looks like a definite prolonged Arctic blast into the PNW now. I wouldn’t expect those forecasts to change too much, given that the Canadian and Japanese models are aligning as well.

The Arctic hasn’t been this cold in December for over a decade now, so there is a lot of stored up Arctic cold up there that looks to be released into western Canada now. I’m expecting a cold blast here around New Year’s as well. A below average January is probably on the cards for a lot of us in the northern hemisphere due to how cold the Arctic is this year. 

[Collectorpalms]

Time to start planning to put your parkas and heat sources on your precious’s…. Just in case.

I think it’s been 38 years since Seattle went below 10F? 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Las Palmas Norte]

27.5°F this morning here. Forecasts are for colder overnight lows in the coming week. Daytime may or may not get above freezing. There's nothing that exceeds the zone 8 limitations. Still too cold for me.

[Jesse PNW]

This forecast seems to change by the minute.  But it should be an educational experience for the marginal stuff. I just hope the greenhouse doesn't freeze, lots of seedlings in there. 

[Paradise Found]

I got 20 yrs of blankets in storage just for this kind of event. Looks like I will have an 8b winter after all, that not to bad.  I better get my secret weapon... high heat candles to heat my popup greenhouses. Last time I used them they got to hot and palms started to grow a little. Friday and Saturday will be protection day.  Hope for the best but plan for the worst!!!

Edited December 21, 2021 by Paradise Found

[Meangreen94z]

I would keep an eye on things. Weather Chamnel predictions last February didn’t start to fall closer in line with GFS until 4-5 days prior, and it shifted by the hour after that. I hope it’s wrong, but I know I’m glad I listened ahead of time and started to prepare while supplies were available. 

[Jtee]

Y’all stay warm up north. I’ll be having a 75 degree Christmas in Alabama. 

[JeskiM]

Hmmm.  Most of the short-medium range models (GFS, ECWMF, NAM, HREF, SREF, RAP,), etc are still in disagreement from run to run this far out;  I would say that we will not know for sure till we are within 48 hours of the event.  The trick is to watch several of these models and the various ensembles, and once they come into very close agreement, typically around the 72-48 hr mark then you can be more certain.  Problem here is that we have two primary issues at different scale.

1:  The very strong High pressure to the west over the Pacific  and the shortwave that will drop south along it's eastern flank.  The problem is exactly where that wave drops down and how close/far it is to the coastline.  That  upper level shortwave trof I am talking about is currently in the process of forming up and there is uncertainty to it's exact placement, configuration,  path, and timing.

2:  The cold air on the east side of the Cascades,  is a few kilometers deep. It will have to be drawn westward and over/through the ranges. The forcing for that will be driven by the shortwave trof discussed above.   Most of the models struggle with the lowest layers of the atmosphere which contain this cold pool; especially with the topography in that area too.

Bottom line is this:  There is a real potential here for all time records being broken. That air sitting over parts of BC is running 50-70 degrees below normal (serious cold). If it can make it's way westward then the temps and those forecasts will drop off the cliff ... Teens and single digits can be expected. The current forecasts are fluctuating from run to run variances of which ever model that forecast is tied to

It's best to prepare in any event, and hope for the best.

-- Matt

 

 

 

[Dartolution]

6 hours ago, Jtee said:

Y’all stay warm up north. I’ll be having a 75 degree Christmas in Alabama. 

Indeed! As long as that cold stays well to the west and north Im happy. 

As of Friday we have highs in the mid 70's and lows around 60 predicted for a stretch. 

 

Im hoping we do not have a pattern flip like back in the 80's and end up with some of the coldest weather on record in January and February... 

FINGERS CROSSED! 

[RJ]

2 hours ago, Dartolution said:

Indeed! As long as that cold stays well to the west and north Im happy. 

As of Friday we have highs in the mid 70's and lows around 60 predicted for a stretch. 

 

Im hoping we do not have a pattern flip like back in the 80's and end up with some of the coldest weather on record in January and February... 

FINGERS CROSSED! 

It’s been a warm December for us in the Carolina’s so it’s certainly in the cards ….

[DAVEinMB]

30 minutes ago, RJ said:

It’s been a warm December for us in the Carolina’s so it’s certainly in the cards ….

Eh, it's been a bit about average. This week is reminding us what time of year we're in

[sipalms]

Isn't it crazy to believe that this place recorded Canada's highest ever temperature on record, 49.6 °C (121.3 °F), almost 6 months ago to the day....

Look at those lows over the next week.

There were many news articles on the mainstream media at the time, portraying Lytton as Morrocco... I wonder if they realist it is more Siberian in nature in the coming weeks.

 

 

[Jimhardy]

Warsaw Missouri has a similar temp thing going on...state high 118F(1954)

and the state low of -40F(1905) occurred there as well.

[Las Palmas Norte]

4 hours ago, sipalms said:

Isn't it crazy to believe that this place recorded Canada's highest ever temperature on record, 49.6 °C (121.3 °F), almost 6 months ago to the day....

Look at those lows over the next week.

There were many news articles on the mainstream media at the time, portraying Lytton as Morrocco... I wonder if they realist it is more Siberian in nature in the coming weeks.

 

 

That town (still recovering from wild fires) is an inland location well away from the moderating influences of the coast, well known for extremes.

[ColdBonsai]

Looks like a low around 9 or 10 degrees for my southerly inland location.

-5 up north in Spokane. 

Seems like a realistic forecast. I'll be putting some lights on my palms and cover them, but 10 degrees shouldn't be too hard on what I have.

[Jesse PNW]

Well the forecast has gotten worse... 

[Collectorpalms]

Latest GFS model Run. Almost no changes for the last 54 hours since I posted this thread.

But the cold has now expanded deeper into California, Idaho, and Nevada. 

[Paradise Found]

Well there goes the last of the summer blooms.  I keep reading lows for my area at 15-18F.  A big deal for semi hardy plants.  Will have to see what happens, very mild out tonight raining cats and dogs.  looks like we slip down to 48F at 9:30 pm.

[UK_Palms]

The latest GFS run still has freezing temps right through to the 8th January, which is the furthest it goes. There doesn’t appear to be any let-up. Pretty unusual to see that amount of sustained cold in that area, assuming it does come to fruition. 

The latest run definitely shows that cold blast punching right through to Texas eventually, in a southeasterly flow from northwest Canada. The second week of January will be interesting to say the least. Definitely a red flag for northeast Texas at this stage, but the jury is out on how far the extreme cold will penetrate. Is that setup looking anything like the Feb 2021 event?

[JeskiM]

Here's a pretty recent run from the ECMWF (Euro) for SeaTac.  That's several days below freezing with it bottoming out at -1 F.  Here's the Temp/Dewpoint spread from the GFS model  That will be some very humid/cold air through the 28th. Hopefully there is either snow or ice to help cover and protect some plants.  However, we had plenty of snow/ice with that deep freeze in Cen. TX last year and I doubt it really helped at all given how long lasting that cold was....worse case for the PNW may be similar to what we saw in TX back in Feb.  Hoping not, but the various models are coming into agreement with regards to the cold, so the odds are going up on that front. Precip will continue to be in question for a bit longer.

Best to prepare anyways.

-- Matt

Edited December 23, 2021 by JeskiM

[Paradise Found]

1 hour ago, JeskiM said:

Here's a pretty recent run from the ECMWF (Euro) for SeaTac.  That's several days below freezing with it bottoming out at -1 F.  Here's the Temp/Dewpoint spread from the GFS model  That will be some very humid/cold air through the 28th. Hopefully there is either snow or ice to help cover and protect some plants.  However, we had plenty of snow/ice with that deep freeze in Cen. TX last year and I doubt it really helped at all given how long lasting that cold was....worse case for the PNW may be similar to what we saw in TX back in Feb.  Hoping not, but the various models are coming into agreement with regards to the cold, so the odds are going up on that front. Precip will continue to be in question for a bit longer.

Best to prepare anyways.

-- Matt

The Euro model are usually spot on.... I am now looking a low of 13F for the coldest.