Silas_Sancona Posted December 20, 2021 Report Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rapha2343 said: Hummm... so what's the best one in which we can trust? None are 100% trustworthy 100% of the time.. but some are closer to the target than others... I myself will: Carefully analyze run to run inconsistancies noticed w/ the global models, like the GFS / Ensemble models like GEFS, 4x times daily. Check all updated runs of all longer term forecast models daily, weekly, monthly.. Look for any emerging patterns i might notice ( ..always remember, they too can flip on a dime ) Compare mental notes w/ what various forecasters might be seeing.. See which " solidify " over time.. Compare 5, 7, 10 day forecasts from local and national sources, and find a middle ground ..then see who comes closest to what actually occurs on a particular day / week, etc.... Say all three local weather forecasters here predict a low range of 33, 35, 32, but national sources like WX Underground, Accuweather, WX Channel, etc are forecasting a different range, say 35, 39, 38.. Middle ground, for me at least, would be 36, with the thought that it could go a tad lower ..or be a tad warmer.. But in the ballpark. Cold, but, for the most part, not cold enough to worry much. I'll add, Here at least, no one ever gets how much rain we may see from a storm correct ( Summer esp. ) ..never, haha.. Have received over an inch ..when .25" was predicted, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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