Florida Winter 2021-2022

[PalmatierMeg]

Woke up to a freeze warning in Cape Coral. Will my 80' wide canal be my jungle's saving grace? Only time will tell.

[sonoranfans]

On 1/26/2022 at 8:39 AM, Aceraceae said:

 

Homestead and Orlando are forecast only a couple degrees apart ultimate low being low 30s and 30. But Miami/Beach and Fort Lauderdale will be at least 5 degrees warmer. Whether advective as in this case, or radiational, the urban heat island helps a lot. 

lets revisit this forecast after the event.  Homestead~tampa in temp would be a very rare event I think.  The accuracy of these models is being tested this weekend and rare events are likely among the least reliable in forecasting.  

[JJPalmer]

We're now in range of the short-term CAMs; 12z HRRR is shown below.  We'll get a lot more visibility into Saturday night today. 

[ruskinPalms]

NWS now has me at 32F for Sunday morning and 36F for Monday morning. Honestly, Monday morning worries me most as I will probably get hit pretty hard with frost. That being said if this forecast holds, I doubt I will have much death, just a bunch of frost and wind burn to make things look cruddy heading into spring - provided there aren’t any more freezes coming this winter…

[Jimbean]

South Florida is looking like it's about to get hit harder relative to the rest of the state, while north Florida looks pretty routine and central Florida looks like average annual minimum. 

[Walt]

As I said in an earlier post, Sunday morning doesn't worry me near as much as Monday morning, even though Sunday is forecasted to be 2 degrees colder (30 degrees). I remember in January of 2003 I had an advective freeze where the low was 29 degrees, and virtually nothing was hurt. Higher ground areas were hurt more than me as they had more direct exposure to the cold dry wind.

Monday morning is forecasted to be 32 degrees, but I fully expect to drop well into the 20s with heavy frost. I can confidently say that as I already had a 29 (and some tenths) reading and a 30 degree reading (on another sensor) during the last cold front with total roof coverage frost and much ground frost.

Other than the potted palms on my trailer that I will put in my garage, I only protected two palms.  This morning I finished installing the insulation (mover's quilts and assorted cotton rags) on my green Malayan dwarf coconut palm. I placed a remote temperature sensor (photo #3) in the base of an attached petiole. Once my sensor reports that the air temperature has dropped to 35 degrees I will plug in my heating cables.  I may then move the sensor under the wraps to see what the temperature is under the insulation. I did this in December of 2010 when my open yard temperature dropped into the low 20s, and my sensor temperature never dropped below 55 degrees in the meristem area, no doubt the temperature was influenced by the heating cable.

I also wrapped a small coconut (just planted this past summer) and used a heating cable to protect it.

[Aceraceae]

1 hour ago, ruskinPalms said:

NWS now has me at 32F for Sunday morning and 36F for Monday morning. Honestly, Monday morning worries me most as I will probably get hit pretty hard with frost. That being said if this forecast holds, I doubt I will have much death, just a bunch of frost and wind burn to make things look cruddy heading into spring - provided there aren’t any more freezes coming this winter…

 

44 minutes ago, Walt said:

As I said in an earlier post, Sunday morning doesn't worry me near as much as Monday morning, even though Sunday is forecasted to be 2 degrees colder (30 degrees). I remember in January of 2003 I had an advective freeze where the low was 29 degrees, and virtually nothing was hurt. Higher ground areas were hurt more than me as they had more direct exposure to the cold dry wind.

Monday morning is forecasted to be 32 degrees, but I fully expect to drop well into the 20s with heavy frost. I can confidently say that as I already had a 29 (and some tenths) reading and a 30 degree reading (on another sensor) during the last cold front with total roof coverage frost and much ground frost.

The wind speed Saturday night/Sunday am has dropped a lot, but the humidity is still forecast to be as low as 50% at freezing temps, so watch out for a hard freeze or extreme frost on the first night in calmer spots. 

The wind has also switched from NNW to NW so some of many facets of the predictions might be falling apart. Looks like it might not be the perfect set up of a strong cooling and drying NNW wind Saturday, combined with partial cloudiness in southern FL and the Keys, then a last minute calm Sunday am. Looks like the wind in general has lowered so the calm first night might be the only worsening part of the forecast. 

[Alan_Tampa]

[Alan_Tampa]

interesting pattern, thats euro model

[RedRabbit]

25 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

 

The wind speed Saturday night/Sunday am has dropped a lot, but the humidity is still forecast to be as low as 50% at freezing temps, so watch out for a hard freeze or extreme frost on the first night in calmer spots. 

The wind has also switched from NNW to NW so some of many facets of the predictions might be falling apart. Looks like it might not be the perfect set up of a strong cooling and drying NNW wind Saturday, combined with partial cloudiness in southern FL and the Keys, then a last minute calm Sunday am. Looks like the wind in general has lowered so the calm first night might be the only worsening part of the forecast. 

I see the wind as NE to NNE here and the wind is from the NW in south Florida.
 

 

It looks like wherever you are, the wind is coming from the peninsula and pushing out over the water. I wonder if this is usually the case with advective freezes?

My understanding is it’s best to be on the south or southeast side of a large body of water. However, if what I’m seeing here is accurate a better rule for a good microclimate would be you need water between you and the center of the state. If you’re on the east coast, having water to your NW would be important and on the west coast having water on the NE. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by RedRabbit

[Aceraceae]

I meant the daytime wind changed a little, reduced speed and more NW, and at night look how calm it's predicted now. Enough for rapid temp drop with the very low humidity still predicted. 

[TampaPalms]

I'm a little more optimistic now that temperatures are going to be within a couple degrees of freezing now in Tampa. At my place around 30°. I will be watering all my palms thoroughly this afternoon. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by TampaPalms

[Jimbean]

https://weather.us/model-charts/korea/florida/temperature-f/20220130-1200z.html

I looked through all of the different models, and they are all over the place.  Some of these models are laughable. 

The GFS, French, European, Canadian, and German models look decently possible.  

Edited January 28, 2022 by Jimbean

[TampaPalms]

14 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/korea/florida/temperature-f/20220130-1200z.html

I looked through all of the different models, and they are all over the place.  Some of these models are laughable. 

The GFS, French, European, Canadian, and German models look decently possible.  

GFS doesn't even have a freeze in Hillsborough County. 

 

[JJPalmer]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/korea/florida/temperature-f/20220130-1200z.html

I looked through all of the different models, and they are all over the place.  Some of these models are laughable. 

The GFS, French, European, Canadian, and German models look decently possible.  

There’s a lot more to meteorology than looking at models.

[Matthew92]

This will deaden the effect of microclimates. This morning, the NWS discussion said to expect below freezing all the way to the ocean. 

 

 

[palmsOrl]

6 hours ago, TampaPalms said:

GFS doesn't even have a freeze in Hillsborough County. 

 

I've noticed that.  I was under the impression that Tampa itself was about as cold as Orlando on the coldest nights and it was before recently according to data I have seen but it seems to stay a couple degrees warmer than Orlando in recent history on the coldest nights.

-Michael

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, palmsOrl said:

I've noticed that.  I was under the impression that Tampa itself was about as cold as Orlando on the coldest nights and it was before recently according to data I have seen but it seems to stay a couple degrees warmer than Orlando in recent history on the coldest nights.

-Michael

One city seems to usually get it worse than the other in any given freeze.  As a whole though, I think non-coastal Tampa is about the same as Orlando. My numbers are usually about the same as what I see from Wunderground stations on E Colonial and what grows here is about the same as what grows there. 

[ChristianStAug]

I am noticing that the NWS “grid” temps aren’t high resolution enough to capture the tight predicted gradient from barrier islands/immediate coast to mainland. This looks true across the east coast of Florida. Here we have 34 degree squares next to 29 degree squares! 

If you look at high res models like HRR they seem to paint a better picture of the various microclimates in the state, including those near rivers, lakes and waterways. 

[ChristianStAug]

Not sure it matters much, but tonight’s freeze warning for inland N Florida looks very hard to verify by morning! Many areas in that warning still 50 degrees as we approach midnight. Immediately upstream it’s certainly colder but the decline is not super abrupt as you go into GA. 

[JLM]

On 1/27/2022 at 8:13 PM, Ubuntwo said:

Tropical Tidbits now has 3-hr frames, soundings, and more parameters for 00/06/12/18z ECMWF runs. ↓ Today's run for 1/29-1/31

This is heavenly, i can now hopefully avoid pivotal weather. I do like pivotal weather, buts its just slow and laggy for me.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Not sure it matters much, but tonight’s freeze warning for inland N Florida looks very hard to verify by morning! Many areas in that warning still 50 degrees as we approach midnight. Immediately upstream it’s certainly colder but the decline is not super abrupt as you go into GA. 

All models were off on current temps by 3-4 degrees so far. All the way to AL and GA.  Would be nice if this trend continues but I don't trust advective cold snaps. NAM is spot on for Orlando (had 52 at 2 AM) and they're forecast is 35 tomorrow night. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by pj_orlando_z9b

[ChristianStAug]

2 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

All models were off on current temps by 3-4 degrees so far. All the way to AL and GA.  Would be nice if this trend continues but I don't trust advective cold snaps. NAM is spot on for Orlando (had 52 at 2 AM) and they're forecast is 35 tomorrow night. 

NAM is noticeably warmer for us tomorrow night, too. Nearly 40 at our coast and no freeze in St. John’s county at all. (Also matching our current temp precisely for 2 am. ) Seems way warm and hard to believe, honestly, but I’m not complaining. But, the euro poked up to mid 30s as well with night run. Cautiously optimistic here. 

[Looking Glass]

Was out about 3:30 am and is was still 61 degrees….

……now 2 hours later and it’s 55.  Wind is coming in hard from the due west right now.  Gusting really strong.  I guess this is close to the warmest it will be for for these next 36 hours.   

Wind is strong and big 40+lb palm fronds seem a bit brittle right now.  Stuff was falling all over.  

Please be careful under the big palms.  The sharp edge of the petiole causes bad injuries, especially to the head, if you are unfortunate to be in the wrong place (sidewalk/parking lot) at the wrong time (now).  


 During hurricanes people are inside, hunkered down.  People are still out and about on these gusty days.  

 

[Jimbean]

I bottomed out at 42F this morning.

For comparison downtown Orlando got down to 41F and downtown Tampa got down to 45F.

 

[Walt]

The remote sensor I placed near the meristem of my coconut palm (photo posted earlier) is reading 43 degrees at 7:42 a.m.. I don't expect it to drop any lower now that the sun is coming up. But the wind is almost non existent. I guess N.W. to N. winds will pick up soon.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Walt
left our key information

[D. Morrowii]

Ultimate low of 42 here this morning. 2-3 degrees above what most forecasts were predicting. It stayed pretty mild through most of the night and didn't start dropping steeply until a little after 2am. The hourly forecast was predicting temps at or below 50 by 11pm but the cold wind didnt really get going until much later so I guess it didnt have a chance to creep down that couple extra degrees here. Front yard microclimate never went below 45.5. Forecasts for tonight/tomorrow morning still ranging from 31-33. 

[Merlyn]

It was slightly warmer here in NW Orlando/Sanford area than expected.  My low was 37.5 in the backyard, and 40 in the front yard.  I think Wunderground predicted 38F last night and the airport was 42F.  Typically I am 3-5F colder than the airport.  Wunderground is predicting 4 hours of 32-33F tonight and 6 hours of 39F on Sunday night.  If it only gets into the upper 20s here tonight then I think 99% of my plants will be fine.  Of course it was a nice balmy 55F in the garage for all my seedlings. 

Edit: fixed temps at the airport...durrrr....

[Hombre de Palmas]

Good luck to everyone over the next couple of days.

The WU which had been colder than the NWS leading up until today is now 33F for us, while the NWS is 30F. The larger issue will probably be on Sunday night where we look likely to receive a significant frost. I think my foxtails will be OK, although I expect some frond damage, but I am not so sure about the adonidias. Funny that I finally succumbed to pressure from my wife to have a large queen palm removed, since those should fare pretty well over the next couple days.

I will be dragging my potted plants in that are of reasonable size, and will set the pool to run 24hrs but that's it. It will be instructive to see what comes out of this without getting it's hair mussed. I am going all in on Darwinism for this cold snap.

My best hope is that everything survives, but even then, it will be months before the landscape recovers. If we experience worse-case scenario, I will definitely be moving to alleviate my stress and worry in upcoming winters by replanting with bullet-proof specimens. You can have a very tropical-looking yard without so much risk during winter weather and the only people who would know would be enthusiasts such as those on this board.

The problem, as I see it, is that there will be a great demand for hardier species, and the price will be as it is already due to the pandemic.

Buena suerte a todos

[pj_orlando_z9b]

Low was 43 at my house in Belle Isle. Will be curious to watch how much temp we gain today. Currently 45. Euro, GFS and ICON forecast 46, 49, 47 respectively. Only the Euro goes to freezing tonight. I think Tampa is in a good position. Already 50 across the region and most models forecasted upper 40s. In fact, GFS has TPA to only 39 tonight. I'll still be protecting the coconut today. 

[Jimbean]

The forecast is looking better now everywhere except for east central Florida.  My low is now forecast at 31F, down from 34F yesterday.  East central Florida is looking like it's going to get nailed.

[kinzyjr]

Ended up with minimum readings between 41F and 44F here in the yard.  The airport had 41F when I woke up this morning, but dropped to 39F by 7:50AM.  Currently, a bright and sunny 48F and the wind is blowing off and on.  Currently forecast to hit 29F here tonight after a high of 49F or 50F.   

[NickJames]

I posted in the other thread, but definitely overperformed in Osteen this AM. 
 

Briefly dipped below 40 for a second at sunrise. Was supposed to be 36. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

16 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

The forecast is looking better now everywhere except for east central Florida.  My low is now forecast at 31F, down from 34F yesterday.  East central Florida is looking like it's going to get nailed.

I sadly agree. The NWS synopsis this morning read like Armageddon for palms and tropicals and the 10:45 update is even more alarming.

[RedRabbit]

46f here this morning. I’m surprised to have been one of the warmer place, but it’s nice for a change! 

The forecast is for 31f tonight so I might cover 1 or two exposed palms but that’s it. Good luck to everyone taking protective measures!

[PalmatierMeg]

52.9F this morning - wind is howling, sun is shining.   Predicted low tomorrow now 36F. Predicted low Monday a.m. now 39F. Skies to be clear. After many cloudy days this winter some clouds overnight would be nice.

My two rescue cracker cats are bummed by this weather.

[ruskinPalms]

Wind is roaring in from the northwest right now here so the temps are staying up above 50F so far. But, as soon as that wind loses its western component, it will drop like a rock here. Supposed to be NNE winds here tonight which is probably the most unfavorable wind direction for where I’m at. Even a due north wind has to travel over Tampa and Tampa bay to get to me here. 

[kinzyjr]

59 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

46f here this morning. I’m surprised to have been one of the warmer place, but it’s nice for a change! 

The forecast is for 31f tonight so I might cover 1 or two exposed palms but that’s it. Good luck to everyone taking protective measures!

About time you caught a break!  Usually it is the spots over here that aren't near pavement or water that look like Flor-Alaska on the Wundermap.

[Estlander]

Recorded 32.7F up here in the northwest. Supposed to drop to 39F tonight. So, overall, can’t complain too much. 
Hope it won’t be too bad for you guys either over on the peninsula tonight. 

[Brian M]

Dropped to 37.2 right around sunrise this morning, a little warmer than the forecasted 35. Looks like NWS bumped our predicted low for tonight from 30 to 33 but still predicting patchy frost. Ended up wrapping some palms but thanks to the wind I'll be out there again this evening rewrapping my adonidia merrellii that came undone.