Winter 21/22 predictions!

[Swolte]

Hey all, just sharing some of the potential bad news (see link!). Hope it won't turn out to be another palm massacre here in Texas but at least I'll be more prepared. I am definitely holding off on any z8+ palm purchases! 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by Swolte

[Silas_Sancona]

Only Winter Wx predictions that have any attention worthy weight, at least for the U.S. are those discussed by Judah Cohen..  98% of stuff from Accuweather, Weather Channel =Trash..  Some early hints the pattern this winter may not be quite as " La Nina dominant " as last year as well..  That alone may throw a few wrenches in what happens w/ the P. V. in the coming months.

If there's any, only bad news is that all those who love the constant 100+ heat will have to suffer with much nicer 70s / 80s for the next few months

 

[knikfar]

14 hours ago, Swolte said:

Hey all, just sharing some of the potential bad news (see link!). Hope it won't turn out to be another palm massacre here in Texas but at least I'll be more prepared. I am definitely holding off on any z8+ palm purchases! 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

 

Notice the publication date "12-09-21". Makes me question the entire article. 

[Swolte]

10 minutes ago, knikfar said:

Notice the publication date "12-09-21". Makes me question the entire article. 

Wish you were right, hah, but that's just European style date reporting (day-month-year).

[GregVirginia7]

21 hours ago, Swolte said:

Hey all, just sharing some of the potential bad news (see link!). Hope it won't turn out to be another palm massacre here in Texas but at least I'll be more prepared. I am definitely holding off on any z8+ palm purchases! 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

 

Well...I found myself struggling to follow the analysis but when I thought I was looking at the effect of the polar vortex on the mouse population in one of the ads (the ad had a purplish liquid In a bowl like a temperature indicator and a dead mouse beside it) I realized this was beyond my ability to comprehend. Though, that notion of surface temps loading up into the polar vortex to force its frigid temps out and south to the USA and Europe made a lot of sense. However, from what I could glean from it, the analysis seems really convincing and even though a lot of it escapes me, all my bloviations about letting my palms hang out this winter may have just deteriorated to an on-call basis.

[Sabal_Louisiana]

The polar vortex forms every winter. This is normal. [See Wikipedia].

It's when it weakens and moves to where it shouldn't be (displaced to the south) that catches our attention.

[UK_Palms]

8 hours ago, Swolte said:

Wish you were right, hah, but that's just European style date reporting (day-month-year).

Yeah, I can confirm that here in the UK we always put the day before the month. So today is the 15/09/21, to me at least. I have actually been caught out by articles in the past due to the American way of writing the date by month-day-year. It's only a tiny little difference, but clearly it will catch people out. Even people that are aware of the difference. 

Regarding the possibility of the polar vortex being displaced, well, I'm just going to leave this here...

 

While definitely not a certainty, it is something to keep an eye on. Back in November 2020, this guy predicted sudden stratospheric warming in the Canadian arctic during late January, which actually happened and led to the Texas freeze in mid February. He kind of predicted it 2-3 months in advance, or at least the models did. Of course climate models are far from accurate, especially long-term ones, but they do give us some indications of what to potentially expect.

[Chester B]

38 minutes ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

The polar vortex forms every winter. This is normal. [See Wikipedia].

It's when it weakens and moves to where it shouldn't be (displaced to the south) that catches our attention.

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

[Silas_Sancona]

14 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

Hey, if you pay attention to the weather, ~ sans the often overblown sensational Wx terms ~,  you can anticipate what to expect in the yard, a good portion of the time anyway..  Dust the crust off,  no one looks good w/ crusty faces / eyes / orifices ( More like they should check into a hospital, perhaps, Don't come near me, haha )    ..and what is " Old Age? " .. More an assumed frame of mind, than actual age?  ..Forever 25 here

[RJ]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

 

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

I’m from around the 45th too. 
 

all fancy words to weaponize weather 

[Chester B]

I probably check the weather 10 times a day especially in winter. So yes I am on top of it, my wife thinks I’m a little obsessed with it.  
 

I used to be forever 25 until this last year!

[sipalms]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

This is so true ^ ^ ^

Just recently the New Zealand Metservice released a new colour code system for severe weather e.g. Red warning being extreme weather.  The ironic and honestly laughable thing was it was only released in roughly the last year. Yet last weekend the mainstream news trotted out the old scary headlines like "Metservices releases RED SEVERE WIND WARNING - This only the SECOND TIME that a code Red has been issued - take cover!" type of thing.

Can you imagine the result? People went crazy, we had relatives ringing to make sure we were going to be okay with the red warning, after all it's only the second one in history...... turns out it was pretty windy but by no means anywhere near the top 10 wind events I can think of in my short 29 years on earth.

Sadly this same hyperbole is used by those peddling fearmongering climate messaging. And I honestly worry that all it does is put unnecessary alarm and worry into our poor young generation who will grow up staring at their screens in alarm instead of opening their eyes and finding out that severe weather has happened for millenia and often the best measure of how bad something is is not a code on a news headline but what one can see and feel as well as what older generations can share of their experience.

[KDubU]

12 hours ago, Chester B said:

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

Hah! I can so relate having grown up in Montreal (Habs are better than Leafs  ). It really wasn’t cold until it got down to like -20c+ or -4f+. Now living in FL and growing palms and such I’m like please no cold!!!

[Dartolution]

14 hours ago, Chester B said:

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

@Chester B THIS! 

I've noticed the same... these terms now are silly. 

I feel like every winter is now another "The Day After Tomorrow" movie... 

 

[necturus]

Polar vortex and bomb cyclone are old meteorological terms that have gone mainstream. No question things are more sensationalized, but the terms themselves aren't new.

[Silas_Sancona]

47 minutes ago, necturus said:

Polar vortex and bomb cyclone are old meteorological terms that have gone mainstream. No question things are more sensationalized, but the terms themselves aren't new.

True as it is, It's funny you mention this..  Was thinking about something i was surprised never went mainstream, something  i've only seen one weather caster use..

Many years ago, Pete Giddings, a highly respected veteran forecaster w/ one of the S.F. Bay Area's news stations  would occasionally mention the term " Upper Level High " in some forecasts, particularly during the summer / fall.. He'd even go so far as to give this term it's own color scheme on forecast maps ( same w/ upper level lows ) as a way to differentiate between normal high ( or low ) pressure areas on the map.  After he left working for the station ( Channel 7 = KGO ) never saw the " ULH " term used by any other forecaster i've watched anywhere i have lived, even Bryan Busby, another highly respected veteran forecaster in Kansas City..  ( think he is semi? - retied now )

Have been somewhat puzzled by this considering some people give winter time " polar " storms  names,  Honestly the dumbest weather related thing to go semi-mainstream ever..  anyway,

Still have the post card i'd received from Pete after writing to him, inquiring about his thoughts on what the maximum potential thunderstorm cloud height ( in the Bay Area ) might be during such events, particularly some of the bigger ones ( Weekend of September 21st-24th, 1990 in particular )

Summed up, his answer  equated to " 50K / 50k+ ft cloud tops would be tough " ( to occur in that part of California,  primarily due to various factors that might significantly challenge this degree of sustained updraft / other factors that would kill the development of these kind of storms along the west coast, most of the time )  Can't remember what was measured during the 1990 event ( Technology for doing so wasn't all that great / reliable at the time,  if i remember < could be dead wrong, lol > ) let alone more recent,  but thinking storm tops in a few have exceeded this..  45-60K / 60K+ storm tops are pretty typical east of the Rockies, here / down in Sonora during Monsoon Season.  Tall storms = epic storm chases / lots of fun watching / tracking.

 

[GregVirginia7]

23 hours ago, Chester B said:

I remember when used to say cold snap or severe storm.  Now we have all these inflammatory weather terms Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, etc, etc to grab people's attention.  I know the weather guys love throwing these out to make the weather more sexy.  I know as gardeners we all pay close attention to it and have an interest in it but its kind of overboard.  Sorry @Silas_Sancona and all you other weather enthusiasts.

Growing up in Toronto, Canada and experiencing "Polar vortexes" was a normal thing, and all we used to say was its going to be cold this week.  End of story.  Never heard the term Polar Vortex prior to 10 years back.

Guess I'm getting crusty in my old age

I would agree...I saw a wooly bear caterpillar the other day and it was mostly black so that supports the prediction...But we’ll see. Today’s weather in NOVA...literal flash flood in my cul-de-sac and some of it washed right around my Brazoria like a river...it stood its ground like a real trooper! I just hope we get some good snow this winter...love pictures of cold hardy palms in snow...gives real meaning to the hobby, but maybe just a bit heavier This year...one that will shut down DC and my business for a day or two.
 

[teddytn]

Grew up in upstate New York. Want to talk about crazy winter weather. As a kid “blizzards” we’re common and we would get winter “nor’easters”. I think it was 1993 it literally snowed over 36” overnight and kept snowing the next day. Set a bunch of records, stayed below 0f for weeks at a time that winter. -15f wasn’t unheard of. From my perspective anywhere the ground doesn’t freeze solid and stays above 5-10f is pretty balmy. 

[RJ]

2 hours ago, GregVirginia7 said:

I would agree...I saw a wooly bear caterpillar the other day and it was mostly black so that supports the prediction...But we’ll see. 

I saw an all black one in Maine over the summer 

[RJ]

1 hour ago, teddytn said:

Grew up in upstate New York. Want to talk about crazy winter weather. As a kid “blizzards” we’re common and we would get winter “nor’easters”. I think it was 1993 it literally snowed over 36” overnight and kept snowing the next day. Set a bunch of records, stayed below 0f for weeks at a time that winter. -15f wasn’t unheard of. From my perspective anywhere the ground doesn’t freeze solid and stays above 5-10f is pretty balmy. 

Yes that was the super storm of 93. I was snowmobiling on the roads in my town. It was the only way you could get around . 

[joetx]

On 9/14/2021 at 6:41 PM, Swolte said:

Hey all, just sharing some of the potential bad news (see link!). Hope it won't turn out to be another palm massacre here in Texas but at least I'll be more prepared. I am definitely holding off on any z8+ palm purchases! 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

 

I sure hope we don't see another extreme winter here in TX. I might just give up if we do 

[Will Simpson]

Maybe the below link will make some feel better .

Will

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

[DallasPalms]

We hit 100 today.  It's a bit late I think the highest temp, September and on @ last year was 95ish... Last summer was mild compared to normal and then Uri...  This year was sort or mild also considering we usually spend alot of hot afternoons over 100F but we did not have many... and a late 100F. 

I think the heat is fighting harder this year.. if anything it will be a late winter again. I have a theory that the Maunder Minimum has alot to do with the arctic swirl... since it affects pressures and the cycle is linked to earthquakes and volcanoes in past centuries... freezing of the Thames river etcetera

The part I made up in my head is that the solar flares charge up the poles and that somehow affects the pressure in the atmosphere which holds the heat stable somehow... and when it gives we get crazy weather flukes and then it turns back to regular, except for Texas...

I saw reports about solar storms recently.  Hopefully it means regular palm friendly winter

Edited September 20, 2021 by DallasPalms

[kinzyjr]

On 9/16/2021 at 9:22 PM, RJ said:

Yes that was the super storm of 93. I was snowmobiling on the roads in my town. It was the only way you could get around . 

I remember the winters in 1993 and 1994.  We set records in snowfall and cold where I used to live.  The closest city recorded -27F, but out in the boondocks, we had -40F one night.

 

My Prediction Based on Nothing, But with a 99.9% chance of being right: This winter will not be as bad as the last one for Texas.  If I'm wrong, I'm still qualified to be a sports commentator.

[Swolte]

This prediction is better (read: warmer). I follow his blog and usually has credible information.  

https://gardenprofessors.com/la-nina-expected-to-affect-climate-around-the-world-by-end-of-year/?fbclid=IwAR1u-pILr3WCdq2iY3JxHOVZP1ciZb9i_aAo0kRMBST0xJ4FQXYgtvLRMmk

[aegean]

Every day I take a look at the newest GFS and ECMWF weather model cards for the next two weeks. (www.meteociel.fr)

For the next 5-6 days the forecast is always quite good and these cards usually don't change much with the next update.

The forecast for day 7-10 gives you a good idea of what might come then, but it is much less reliable and often changes a lot with the next update.

The forecast for day 11-14 is absolutely useless and often changes dramatically with every update.

 

So in my opinion any weather prediction for more than two weeks can't be taken serious and it's useless to worry now about the weather that might come in january.

[Jimhardy]

I think they have about 3-4(if that) maps they just rotate in and out every 

year because it always sounds like a broken record, if you ever read 

how the Farmers Almanac figures out their accuracy its kind of a joke

and although they always brag about their accuracy I just have never

seen it.....esp their forecast for every week during fall winter and spring....

but that said even a broken clock is right a couple times a day.

[DallasPalms]

So what they're saying is

It will be a warm and dry winter.

But also it could be the same again...

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/warmer-than-average-winter-predicted-for-north-texas-as-la-nina-pattern-returns/2781654/

[CumberlandPlants]

On 9/16/2021 at 12:00 PM, necturus said:

Polar vortex and bomb cyclone are old meteorological terms that have gone mainstream. No question things are more sensationalized, but the terms themselves aren't new.

Slight correction: A storm, “Bombing out” due to it’s pressure being very low is a meteorological term, and has been around a while.  Bomb cyclone is a new click bate term. 
Check out Weathermadness.com. He is very good at forecasting winter weather and looking at the indicators that allow for the polar vortex to send cold air into the U.S. he is often a 2 weeks ahead of major cold spells. Plenty of time to prepare palms that are being push in colder climates!  

[JLM]

6 hours ago, CumberlandPlants said:

Slight correction: A storm, “Bombing out” due to it’s pressure being very low is a meteorological term, and has been around a while.  Bomb cyclone is a new click bate term. 
Check out Weathermadness.com. He is very good at forecasting winter weather and looking at the indicators that allow for the polar vortex to send cold air into the U.S. he is often a 2 weeks ahead of major cold spells. Plenty of time to prepare palms that are being push in colder climates!  

Technically, the term "bombing out" means a low pressure system that drops its minimum central pressure by 24 mb or more within a period of 24 hours. But yes, that is the general idea. I will check this source out, see if i find him credible, but he sounds like hes pretty good at what he does!