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Coldest spring on record for UK and most of Europe


UK_Palms

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Highs of 27-28C across western Surrey today. Big towns like Guildford and Woking pushing 29C. 

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Pretty extreme Csb influence in southeastern England right now. June is still only on 0.09 inches of rainfall here and we're almost half way through the month now. Last measurable rainfall was 11 days ago. We've had very warm and very dry conditions since the last week of May. It does feel like it is slowly making up for the dreadful spring that we had now. 

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I'm really not seeing much rainfall at all in these forecasts now though... perhaps a shower on Thursday if we're lucky...

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Looks like the southeast may see some pretty decent heat as early as Saturday the 19th again with temps nudging 32C in London. Both the Euro and Met models are now predicting quite a bit of heat next weekend. So a very short cool down on Thursday and Friday before the temps start rising again. Southeast looks pretty warm by Saturday. France and central Europe baking hot. There's a low pressure system trying to come in off Iceland, but the high pressure block just buffers it. 

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GEM model also predicting a lot of heat for southeastern England next weekend...

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Euro model puts London at 30C next Saturday on the 19th...

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Late June is looking pretty warm and dry as the Azores High heads straight for us again. July should start off pretty hot. 

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Highs of 27-28C across western Surrey today. Big towns like Guildford and Woking pushing 29C. 

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Pretty extreme Csb influence in southeastern England right now. June is still only on 0.09 inches of rainfall here and we're almost half way through the month now. Last measurable rainfall was 11 days ago. We've had very warm and very dry conditions since the last week of May. It does feel like it is slowly making up for the dreadful spring that we had now. 

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I'm really not seeing much rainfall at all in these forecasts now though... perhaps a shower on Thursday if we're lucky...

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Looks like the southeast may see some pretty decent heat as early as Saturday the 19th again with temps nudging 32C in London. Both the Euro and Met models are now predicting quite a bit of heat next weekend. So a very short cool down on Thursday and Friday before the temps start rising again. Southeast looks pretty warm by Saturday. France and central Europe baking hot. There's a low pressure system trying to come in off Iceland, but the high pressure block just buffers it. 

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GEM model also predicting a lot of heat for southeastern England next weekend...

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Euro model puts London at 30C next Saturday on the 19th...

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Late June is looking pretty warm and dry as the Azores High heads straight for us again. July should start off pretty hot. 

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The official high from the met office was 24 yesterday so those temperatures are way off lol this morning the models have it turning much wetter after Wednesday there could be lots of rain so after a dry first half the second half could be very wet again continuing the trend of wet then average summer months and to be honest  next weekend looks pretty awful to me not breaking 20 degrees in the warmest part of the year is terrible and nothing like a summer med climate 

 

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I recorded 31C / 88F in the shade of my garden on Sunday. No stevenson screen or whatever it is called, but it was verified across 3 different platforms (wooden thermometer, digital thermometer and other nearby stations). I trust the recordings. If only the Met had an 'official' station in western Surrey to further verify recordings. 

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Looks like we're going to get a load of thunderstorms move up from the Spanish Med region mid-week. They could be pretty hit and miss though, meaning some places barely get any rain, while others get soaked...

 

 

Any rainfall that does come will be from thunderstorms. Some areas may not see any rainfall at all...

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It doesn't look like a massive breakdown in the weather late next week. A few cooler days, around 20C, with the odd thunderstorm or shower, but as you can see, temperatures start rising again towards end of the month. Unless somewhere gets a really bad thunderstorm and heavy rain, those totals are going to remain pretty low for the month...

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Looks like the Med regions are getting a real soaking over the next few days...

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It looks like next weekend may be pretty warm though according to the UK Met model, although the models in general seem to be a bit all over the place right now...

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Maxed out at 31.2C / 89F on Monday in my garden. Guildford getting a shade higher at around 32C / 90F. Temperatures would have got a few degrees higher if it didn't cloud over at about 3pm. The temperature dropped down to 28C / 82F by 4pm, becoming unbearably humid due to the overcast conditions. Today was the first day this year where stepping out of an air-conditioned car legit felt like opening an oven door. Just stifling this afternoon. Heat indexes of about 35C in urban areas of west Surrey.

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These are the 2pm temps, with Guildford and it's UHI obviously being warmer than surrounding regions...

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At 1am the temperature is still hovering around 21C in Guildford and London. 

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We've had about 3 weeks straight of temps in the mid - high 20's C now and practically no rainfall. So some rain and cooler temps will be quite welcome later this week, ahead of the actual onslaught of summer heat in July and August. I'm quite looking forward to a bit of cooler weather, although there may not be much of it to come, with some models showing the heat returning quite promptly for southeastern England. 

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This has got to be an 'outlier', but the UK Met model has London at 37C / 100F this coming Sunday, Paris at 40C / 104F... surely not! Other models disagree, but it is also the Met, so... :o

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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@UK_Palms I’ve been looking at temps of Europe last year, as well as this. And as you show us a lot of your temperatures in the southeast of England. I notice that Berlin at also 52.5N is actually generally (and more consistently) warmer in summer than you. And then colder in winter. 
 

 

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@JohnnyKarelian Berlin and most of Germany, as well as central Europe, has a strong continental climate. Cold, dry winters and warm, wet summers. Berlin is marginally warmer than London in summer, on average, although London's record highs in each summer month are just a shade higher than Berlin's record highs. London also tends to get more intense heatwaves during the peak of summer, although Berlin is a bit warmer on average across the summer months. Probably due to cooler intervals coming off the Atlantic every few weeks to affect the UK and lower the averages.

But when the proper Saharan heat hits in July and August, London is usually a few degrees warmer than Berlin. There's not a massive difference between the two though in summer, temperature-wise. Berlin's wettest month is June and summer is the wettest season. London's wettest month is October and the wettest period is October - December. Other than that, London and Berlin are quite similar in summer. Winters are obviously quite a bit colder over there on the continent, but Berlin is about 1C warmer on average in July. However their heatwaves don't usually have the same intensity as London's come late July / early August.

Saying that, it looks like central Europe has a big heatwave on the cards this week. We're world's away from the near record cold spring that we have just seen in the UK, Netherlands, France, Germany, Switzerland etc. High pressure really building over Germany and Switzerland later this week, with the sun at its strongest intensity of the year. There should be some records broken in the coming days. That is record breaking heat being forecast for Berlin.

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Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Looks like there could be some phenomenal rainfall totals over the next few days flooding could be a problem for some us in the southeast and turning much cooler as well temperatures staying under 20c is very poor for high summer and continues the trend of wetter then average summer months still no sign of the decrease in summer rainfall after a dry opening to June the rest of the month will make up for that big time 

 

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10 hours ago, JohnnyKarelian said:

@UK_Palms I’ve been looking at temps of Europe last year, as well as this. And as you show us a lot of your temperatures in the southeast of England. I notice that Berlin at also 52.5N is actually generally (and more consistently) warmer in summer than you. And then colder in winter. 
 

 

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Most places in Northern Europe have hotter summers then southern England despite what he claims 

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@Samuel Those thunderstorms are going to be pretty hit and miss. Some places may see an entire months worth of rain in the space of an hour, while a few miles down the road they may get hardly anything. Just this morning the Met were saying that most of the southeast could miss out on them if the storms track further east.

I want the rain as much as anyone. I am on 1mm of rain here so far for June and some parts of Essex and Kent have had 0mm. I hope it absolutely pours down. Also, these thunderstorms are coming up from the Med after all. I mean some of the true Med regions have had 5 x as much rainfall as us already this month with more still to come. So on the whole we are still pretty dry here. Madrid is supposed to be warm-summer Med, leaning towards semi-arid, yet they have loads of rain forecast there in the coming days…
 

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I’m currently at 27C / 80F in my garden right now and we still have another 30C day to come tomorrow, before the cool down and potentially stormy conditions.

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Any rain that does come does not change the fact that we have had next to no rainfall for 2-3 weeks in the southeast now. Quite an extended dry spell. How wet the next week or so will be, is up in the air. We could still be relatively dry come the weekend and warm again. I think you need to access the rainfall values and stats at the end of summer, given that July is forecast to be drier than average as well. You can’t say anything at this stage when we are still only on 1mm of rain for the first two weeks of June. 

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Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Still looking like we will see a lot of rain Over the next few days with flooding becoming an issue and looks like it will be staying wet into next week with cool temperatures unlike in the med where after a few storms it turns hot and sunny the uk gets stuck with low pressure over us for weeks on end that’s why we don’t have a summer med climate to many unsettled cloudy days with suppressed temperatures between warmer spells 

 

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I reached 31C / 88F on Wednesday here on what was a stifling, horribly humid day. However it did make way for a fair bit of rainfall later on in the evening. No thunder or storms though, so to speak. Just a few heavy rain showers. Only had a low of 19C last night as well due to the cloud cover.

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Seeing as large swathes of the Mediterranean has just had, or is still having, quite severe storms and rainfall, it doesn’t mean too much that we have just had some showers and have more forecast. It seems Western Europe in general is quite wet this week. 

We will see what the totals are at the end of the month, and at the end of summer. July and August will probably be quite dry. This June so far has been exceptionally dry and it’s hard to say how much rainfall will come exactly. We have some drier days with some sunshine in the forecast if you look at the Met or BBC forecasts.

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I’m going for a high of 23-24C here today. It’s currently 20C at 9am here. Not ‘cold’ by any stretch right now, although tomorrow may be a bit on the cooler side. 

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I reached 31C / 88F on Wednesday here on what was a stifling, horribly humid day. However it did make way for a fair bit of rainfall later on in the evening. No thunder or storms though, so to speak. Just a few heavy rain showers. Only had a low of 19C last night as well due to the cloud cover.

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Seeing as large swathes of the Mediterranean has just had, or is still having, quite severe storms and rainfall, it doesn’t mean too much that we have just had some showers and have more forecast. It seems Western Europe in general is quite wet this week. 

We will see what the totals are at the end of the month, and at the end of summer. July and August will probably be quite dry. This June so far has been exceptionally dry and it’s hard to say how much rainfall will come exactly. We have some drier days with some sunshine in the forecast if you look at the Met or BBC forecasts.

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I’m going for a high of 23-24C here today. It’s currently 20C at 9am here. Not ‘cold’ by any stretch right now, although tomorrow may be a bit on the cooler side. 

You’re temperature recordings are not accurate the fact you always record temps 3-5 higher then anywhere else shows how inaccurate they are that’s why the met office don’t include them  officially no where has recorded over 30c this June it’s the  first summer month not to achieve it since august 2017 we had rain last night and looks like the next week at least will be very wet stopping us from having a drier then average month so still no sign of this supposed decline in summer rain July could be dry or it could be wet who knows but I’d be surprised if august is dry it is almost always a washout yes parts of the med have also been having storms but here’s the massive difference it’s doesn’t last long and temperatures don’t drop under 20c like it does here because we are an oceanic climate not a summer med 

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2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

This June so far has been exceptionally dry and it’s hard to say how much rainfall will come exactly.

I don't think you'll have any problems with rainfall in your Mediterranean summer.

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Its still hot on the continent with temperatures of about 30 C and will be warm for the coming days. You winters might be milder than ours but I think the continent still wins

during the summer. 

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@sipalms I'm guessing the Met Office are more clued up on UK forecasts than Google, which uses weather.com. So let's use the Met's forecast for UK, which clearly shows less rainfall and more sun. Clearly not all of those days are going to be 'washouts', although my tomatoes, peppers and palms are in need of big downpours after the past few dry weeks...

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We've basically got a week of cooler, wetter weather now then it will warm up and become dry again as we head towards July...

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Before yesterday, we had like 1mm of rain over the past 3 weeks and above average temperatures since late May. Having 1 week with below average temperatures and some rainfall isn't that surprising and doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Especially when actual Med regions have had more than their fair share of rainfall recently too. I believe Barcelona has already seen over 2 inches of rain this month, compared to just 0.24 inches here (although it is increasing by the hour). 

Wait until the month is over, or even until summer is over, then assess the rainfall stats then. We don't know how much is going to fall over the next week, or month, or next 3 months even. One cool, wet week doesn't mean anything. Not after 3 weeks of warm, dry weather. And especially with the rest of summer to come still. There was obviously going to be some rain at some point and it seems like you have been waiting in the wings since the onset of summer here, to comment as soon as the rain fell. I understand why though, given my "trending towards Csb" claims. 

It seems western Europe, and the Atlantic region in general, is going to be pretty wet over the next few days. There's abnormally low pressure on the Atlantic coasts and abnormally high pressure pushing into central and eastern Europe. So western Europe is getting soaked the next few days, even Med regions...

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Madrid is very hot and dry in summer, akin to a semi-arid climate, but even they have quite a bit of rain forecast in the next few days...

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The Canary Islands are notoriously dry in summer, but they have a fair bit of rain forecast...

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Once you factor in the incredibly dry first half of June, this month will probably finish on around average rainfall, with almost all of it concentrated into one week. Provisional forecasts suggest July is going to be incredibly dry and warm for western Europe. That's far from certain though, but we need to wait until summer is over, or at least later on in the season, before we can assess rainfall totals or draw up conclusions. If this summer ends up wetter than average, or far from being Csb, you can by all means say "I told you so". Summer has only just started here though. I mean July - September could be incredibly dry. Plus, I have maintained that we are 'trending' towards Csb gradually. I don't think we are full-on Csb at present. Although this coming July, August and September will make or break that statement. Let's see come September. 

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Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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9 hours ago, Marco67 said:

Its still hot on the continent with temperatures of about 30 C and will be warm for the coming days. You winters might be milder than ours but I think the continent still wins

during the summer. 

I agree that most places on the continent are a bit warmer on average during summer, except for Scandinavia and Baltic regions. London has slightly higher all-time records than northern cities like Amsterdam, Berlin, Hamburg, Warsaw etc, but they are a shade warmer on average. However most places are not drier than London and southeast England, especially during summer. Outside of the Med regions, southeast England is probably the driest place in summer in Europe. Certainly the driest summers in Europe above 45N. 

Right now there is abnormally wet weather for coastal regions of western Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, UK), which is caused by abnormally high pressure in central and eastern Europe. While they currently get lots of heat and sunny, dry weather, western Europe gets rain and overcast weather. Even in Med regions along the Atlantic they are wet and miserable. This cycle will faze out in 5-7 days time, when the Azores High returns over western Europe, restoring sunny, dry weather and causing cooler, wetter weather in central and eastern Europe. We were warm and dry here in early June when central Europe was still pretty cold and wet. 

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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47 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

@sipalms I'm guessing the Met Office are more clued up on UK forecasts than Google, which uses weather.com. So let's use the Met's forecast for UK, which clearly shows less rainfall and more sun. Clearly not all of those days are going to be 'washouts', although my tomatoes, peppers and palms are in need of big downpours after the past few dry weeks...

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We've basically got a week of cooler, wetter weather now then it will warm up and become dry again as we head towards July...

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Before yesterday, we had like 1mm of rain over the past 3 weeks and above average temperatures since late May. Having 1 week with below average temperatures and some rainfall isn't that surprising and doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Especially when actual Med regions have had more than their fair share of rainfall recently too. I believe Barcelona has already seen over 2 inches of rain this month, compared to just 0.24 inches here (although it is increasing by the hour). 

Wait until the month is over, or even until summer is over, then assess the rainfall stats then. We don't know how much is going to fall over the next week, or month, or next 3 months even. One cool, wet week doesn't mean anything. Not after 3 weeks of warm, dry weather. And especially with the rest of summer to come still. There was obviously going to be some rain at some point and it seems like you have been waiting in the wings since the onset of summer here, to comment as soon as the rain fell. I understand why though, given my "trending towards Csb" claims. 

It seems western Europe, and the Atlantic region in general, is going to be pretty wet over the next few days. There's abnormally low pressure on the Atlantic coasts and abnormally high pressure pushing into central and eastern Europe. So western Europe is getting soaked the next few days, even Med regions...

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Madrid is very hot and dry in summer, akin to a semi-arid climate, but even they have quite a bit of rain forecast in the next few days...

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The Canary Islands are notoriously dry in summer, but they have a fair bit of rain forecast...

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Once you factor in the incredibly dry first half of June, this month will probably finish on around average rainfall, with almost all of it concentrated into one week. Provisional forecasts suggest July is going to be incredibly dry and warm for western Europe. That's far from certain though, but we need to wait until summer is over, or at least later on in the season, before we can assess rainfall totals or draw up conclusions. If this summer ends up wetter than average, or far from being Csb, you can by all means say "I told you so". Summer has only just started here though. I mean July - September could be incredibly dry. Plus, I have maintained that we are 'trending' towards Csb gradually. I don't think we are full-on Csb at present. Although this coming July, August and September will make or break that statement. Let's see come September. 

We have had around 2 dry weeks after the one of wettest mays on record and now we are going back to rain the next 10 days are looking like a washout for us down here tbh If we were really transitioning into a summer med climate we would need consecutive summers of dry and hot weather which we do not have if you cared to do real research you would see that summers have actually warmed the least out of every season in the uk and the summers were drier and hotter in the 1990s infact summers from 1989-2006 were consistently much warmer and drier compared to what we have experienced since 2010 and that is a fact 

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1 minute ago, Samuel said:

We have had around 2 dry weeks after the one of wettest mays on record and now we are going back to rain the next 10 days are looking like a washout for us down here tbh If we were really transitioning into a summer med climate we would need consecutive summers of dry and hot weather which we do not have if you cared to do real research you would see that summers have actually warmed the least out of every season in the uk and the summers were drier and hotter in the 1990s infact summers from 1989-2006 were consistently much warmer and drier compared to what we have experienced since 2010 and that is a fact 

It has been dry in the southeast of England since the last week of May, so we have gone a good 3 weeks with barely a drop of rain, until now. It was just over 3 weeks actually. Now we have a wet, cooler spell like the rest of western Europe over the next week or so, before warmer, drier conditions resume. And the Azores High will return again, as it has been temporarily shifted east up into central Europe. It will be back in time for the end of June though, with early July being hot and dry. We're still 5-6 weeks out from the warmest part of the year.

Also, the Met Office themselves say that summers are becoming warmer and drier in general, although rainfall events are getting heavier year-round. So while there is less rain across the summer months in general, when it does rain it will be more intense. Also the 2 wettest winters on record have occurred since 2015, showing a clear increase in winter rainfall. So the trend is definitely for wetter, milder winters and warmer, drier summers. This is something that I have been observing here, gradually. If you live in southeast England, I am surprised you don't see it. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-extreme-events-_heavy-rainfall-and-floods

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2018/ukcp18-launch-pr

https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/climate-change/climate-adaptation

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-britain-idUKKCN1NV13D

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Here in the Costa del Manchester it's been all sun and warm weather - no rain yet in the month of June :D

I expect July or August will be miserable as usual though, no climate transitioning going on here that I can see, apart from getting milder (especially at night).  Need to enjoy the good weather while it lasts in a place like this!

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Manchester, Lancashire, England

53.4ºN, 2.2ºW, 65m AMSL

Köppen climate Cfb | USDA hardiness zone 9a

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37 minutes ago, Ryland said:

Here in the Costa del Manchester it's been all sun and warm weather - no rain yet in the month of June :D

I expect July or August will be miserable as usual though, no climate transitioning going on here that I can see, apart from getting milder (especially at night).  Need to enjoy the good weather while it lasts in a place like this!

I’m surprised you’ve still had no rain up there in Manchester this month. We were totally dry for June up until Wednesday night, when the low pressure front hit, coming up from the Med. Then again we are closer to the continent down here and this rainfall has come up from the Med regions of Spain and France, so it would hit us first and likely effect us worse. It looks like you guys may get some in the coming hours/days though.

It has been coming down pretty heavy here over the past hour or two today. My rainfall totals have probably doubled since my last post on here. I need to check, but I am probably up to 25-30mm now this month. I was only on 1mm for the month on Wednesday afternoon, so it has been quite a wet 48 hours here. Summer rainfalls seem to be getting heavier though, even if rainfall in general is lower during summer, due to more extended dry periods.

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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@Samuel You are not from the UK, hence why your ONLY posts on this site have been on this topic. You’re yet to make a single palm related post and have set this account up just to counter anything I say. I have an idea of who you are. It’s obvious you are trying to perpetuate the myth that London and southeast England is always wet and cold.

You have also waited for the one day, or two day period this month where the UK is cooler than anywhere else and then said that “sums up the UK” when it really doesn’t. Southern England was hotter than most Med regions earlier this week. On Wednesday London was 5C warmer than Athens and 3C warmer than Alicante. Of course you didn’t post anything about that then though, did you. The fact you deny that summers are getting drier is also a bit suspicious, given that you claim to live in London. 

We were obviously going to have a brief cooler, wetter spell at some point, which does not reflect the entire summer, as much as you want it to. We’ll be back to warmer, drier conditions later next week. Heat and warmth may be returning quicker than originally scheduled now. I bet you’ll stop posting for a while when the heat and drought really kicks in here come July…

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Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

@Samuel You are not from the UK, hence why your ONLY posts on this site have been on this topic. You’re yet to make a single palm related post and have set this account up just to counter anything I say. I have an idea of who you are. It’s obvious you are trying to perpetuate the myth that London and southeast England is always wet and cold.

You have also waited for the one day, or two day period this month where the UK is cooler than anywhere else and then said that “sums up the UK” when it really doesn’t. Southern England was hotter than most Med regions earlier this week. On Wednesday London was 5C warmer than Athens and 3C warmer than Alicante. Of course you didn’t post anything about that then though, did you. The fact you deny that summers are getting drier is also a bit suspicious, given that you claim to live in London. 

We were obviously going to have a brief cooler, wetter spell at some point, which does not reflect the entire summer, as much as you want it to. We’ll be back to warmer, drier conditions later next week. Heat and warmth may be returning quicker than originally scheduled now. I bet you’ll stop posting for a while when the heat and drought really kicks in here come July…

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Okay where do I start with this firstly i am from the uk I’ve lived here all my life I only post on this topic to correct some of the statements you make which are completely false i read through some of the forums about palms in the uk and have seen the pictures you have shared of large palms which are amazing  I grow palms my self Im relatively new to it I am not trying to say London and southern England is cold and wet all the time that is of course not true overall the climate is fairly reasonable and mild hence why we can grow palms here but it annoys me that you keep lying and saying London is turning into a summer med climate when it’s not true I have posted loads of evidence to show that summers are not getting drier which you always seem to ignore the met office says summers will turn drier in the future but at the moment there is no trend towards it again I’ll show evidence but you will know doubt  ignore it you said in an earlier reply that 2 of the wettest winters on record have occurred recently that is true the winter season has warmed the most and gotten wetter  however we have also had some of the wettest summers on record over the past decade 2012/2015/2007/2008/2009/2011 as examples. And I do not only post when the weather is bad I made my account at the end of may just when the weather flipped from the wetness of may. As you can see from these charts summers got drier through the 90s before turning wetter again through till now the driest summers on record occurred before the year 2000 it also shows summer temperatures are very stable at the moment after the warming during the 80 and 90s they also show that summers are not getting any sunnier.

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F063EB8F-9A4D-414E-93EE-579E5681426F.png

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@Samuel The thing is it’s not me just making outlandish claims that we are heading towards Csb climate in southeastern England. The Met Office, BBC and National Geographic are all saying that London and southeast England‘s summers are becoming increasingly warmer and drier, with winters becoming milder and wetter. I have noticed a definite trend towards drier summers and wetter autumns/winters here, but the Met Office themselves are also stating this. I have posted the links to this in my previous posts. I agree it is debatable and we are not seeing a consistent change year on year, but the gradual change is definitely there and noticeable in my opinion.

I’m also not the one who is saying that London’s climate will resemble Barcelona’s climate by 2050. That is the Met Office and National Geographic saying that. I just posted about it. I mean you can think otherwise, and to be fair you are entitled to your own opinion obviously, but I’m thinking the Met Office and National Geographic know more than either of us when it comes to the state of the UK’s climate and future climatic trends. I guess only time will tell though. Again, let’s see how the rainfall stats look at the end of summer. It could be a wet one, but the long range forecast already suggests that July is going to be exceptionally dry and warm. 

Also regarding the graphs you just uploaded, it will not reflect the regional differences for the southeast for instance, since it is for England in general. I believe southwest England and northwest England may be getting wetter in summer, while southeast and northeast England are getting drier in summer. Hard to say though. The east of England in general is definitely getting drier in summer though, unless the Met are totally wrong. So we really need regional maps specific to London and the southeast to show the change towards drier summers and wetter winters. Rather than maps for England in general. 

Another reason I was sceptical about you not being from the UK is because you said that London’s palms will be wiped out sooner or later. That is something I have heard before from people in other countries. The bigger CIDP’s have been there for about 20-25 years now and have survived the coldest month on record in December 2010, when they were much smaller. At their current, much bigger size, there is no way they will get knocked out now, especially given London’s mammoth UHI. The big ones will take a hell of a lot of cold now. The same goes for the south coast CIDP’s. This winter just gone was pretty cold but the CIDP’s and Washies are totally undamaged in London and on the south coast. Climate change, stronger UHI’s and the fact that people didn’t really grow palms a few decades ago all explain why big specimens are popping up nowadays. 

 

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Here's this week's forecast from a trending Med / Csb Summer. Sorta place I'd go to get a good tan, wearing boardshorts and drinking beer on the beach or at the lake all day...

MS-Med-C.png.20142d78e67a315e8964740ea89e43ef.png

 

MS-Med-F.png.55483db1025911c02c5962669b6f02e0.png

 

Edited by sipalms
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32 minutes ago, sipalms said:

Here's this week's forecast from a trending Med / Csb Summer. Sorta place I'd go to get a good tan, wearing boardshorts and drinking beer on the beach or at the lake all day...

MS-Med-C.png.20142d78e67a315e8964740ea89e43ef.png

 

MS-Med-F.png.55483db1025911c02c5962669b6f02e0.png

 

But we had 3 weeks of warm weather so we are definitely turning into a summer med climate let’s just ignore all the cool wet weather that happens in between :D

Edited by Samuel
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@sipalms The forecast isn't as bleak as you are making out. Google weather are overstating the amount of rain and understating the temperatures slightly. The western Atlantic regions of Europe, including northwest Portugal and Spain, and western France, have all had abnormally low pressure and wet weather due to high pressure fixating over central Europe. It is shifting back though in the coming days. July will be dry and warm here. August and September probably will be as well. There is going to be a big seasonal lag following the cold spring we have just had. 

 

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Longer range it is looking pretty stable as we head into July...

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High pressure is returning later next week...

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This year has been incredibly bizarre in general though. January and February unusually cold, then a very mild start to spring with my highest March temperature on record. Followed by the driest, sunniest and coldest April on record. Then my wettest and 3rd dullest May on record, despite the last week of May being very good. The first two weeks of June had impeccable weather with temperatures consistently in the 25C - 30C range here and no rain. Then the Atlantic regions get hit with abnormally low pressure for June. Parts of Portugal, Spain, France and UK have broken 24 hour rainfall records. Temperatures have been 10C below average in parts of Portugal and Spain in recent days.

For western Atlantic regions, it's almost like summer hasn't yet properly kicked in. It still feels a bit like a transition between spring and summer, with the early June weather making up for the crap April and May. I expect early July - mid September to be the proper summer period, due to seasonal lag in Atlantic regions and following on from that record cold spring. The trees foliage have caught up, to a degree, but flowers and fruit trees are still about 2-3 weeks behind where they should be. So I am expecting a big seasonal lag this summer following the cold spring. July looks like it will be pretty warm and dry, but I think the major heat will come in August this year. September may be pretty warm as well for Atlantic regions. 

A week of cooler/wetter weather does not make or break a season, or a summer. Let's see what you have to say in a few weeks time when high pressure stabilises again in western Europe and the oven is turned on as we approach mid-summer...

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Western Europe is definitely on the wrong end of the heat right now, although we had the warmth during the first two weeks of June, now it has travelled east...

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Spain and Portugal especially cold, with some northwest coastal regions of Iberia barely reaching 15C in recent days. France and UK also being affected by same system. 

 

Have you ever seen hail as bad as that... in Spain of all places...!?

 

Even parts of the Spanish Med didn't escape...

 

Madrid is supposed to be semi-arid with incredibly dry summers...

 

Crazy storms in northern Spain last week, more last night...

 

 

Big storms on Saturday night across western Europe...

 

Try to keep a straight face while watching this French dude. He can't believe what he is witnessing...

 

Hail the size of tennis balls in France...

 

Unfortunately some tornadoes touched down in western France causing damage and a few injuries. Very unusual for tornadoes in June in western Europe. 

 

Meanwhile... in Paris...

 

Biblical rainfall totals at Disneyland Paris... nearly 8 inches in 24 hours!

 

France absolutely battered...
 

 

Tornadoes in Belgium...

 

 

Holy mother of ganja... this is in the Netherlands I believe. I couldn't imagine seeing this outside in my garden! I have tomatoes, peppers, palms all sorts in pots outdoors right now. I feel bad for the people who experienced this. Crazy for western Europe and looks like the UK has dodged a bullet...

 

I mean London has just had a summer 'shower' in comparison to some of these other places. Terrible weather in western Europe in recent days. France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal all battered by storms. The UK may be one of the more fortunate places, despite our temperatures being 6-7 degrees C below average as well on Sunday and Monday. I would certainly take that over my garden being destroyed by storms or major flash floods like in Paris and northern Spain. Those places are all running a good 7-8 degrees C below average as well, similar to us. Just they had major storms too. There hasn't been any wind at all here and just on and off rain. Still below the monthly average here, just. 

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Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Well we have a arrived at the summer solstice the longest day of the year and it’s raining and 13 degrees we have had better weather in December and January things look like they will return to average by the end of the week but nothing overly warm looks like showing up also haven’t seen the sun since last Wednesday at least in proper summer med climates there version of poor weather still see temps in the 20s with more sunshine in-between the storms  

 

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3E616161-9C94-48AA-BDAC-0EC3DBD17D35.png

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Dreadful weather here, I have to admit. It's like the record cold May weather has returned to torment us. It has been unseasonably cool and wet the past few days. The palms and plants aren't complaining, but the people certainly are. I'm still only on 13C / 56F at 2pm here! Parts of Scotland and Wales up to 20C though as they don't have the clouds and rain. You couldn't write it.

thumbnail_image0-60.thumb.jpg.df94264657e3c6b207ac2c40f3beb71e.jpg

 

Exactly a year ago today it was like 23C here. So 10C colder compared to last year's solstice. I had a high of like 35C on the 2017 solstice, so over 20C colder than the 2017 solstice too. Just rubbish all-round this year. Not sure what the record low high is for the date, but it cant be far off today, if 13C is the high!? Definitely the coldest summer solstice that I have ever experienced in my lifetime and possibly the joint coldest on record for Guildford (records only go back to 1981). The average high for the time of year should be 22C here! The warmth can't return soon enough. Although it will warm up after today is over and out...

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The only positive I can pull out if this is that we didn't get the awful storms like the rest of western Europe did. No wind, tornadoes, crazy hail, or extreme flash flooding. Our rainfall has been relatively spaced out in recent days and not as intense as on the continent where they have been flooded out in places and had their property trashed by hurricane force winds.

I know people in France and Spain, who I have been trading tomato & pepper seed with and keeping in contact with, and they had all their tomato plants blown over and smashed to bits by wind, hail and extreme downpours. Some guys in Madrid and Barcelona had their balcony plants snapped completely by hail, another guy near Paris had his plants blown away into neighbours yards. Similar thing happened to a Dutch guy on a tomato forum. People in Portugal and Belgium saying they have lost tomato plants in the storms too.

I mean we totally escaped that dreadful weather here, minus a bit of rain. Just saying. The videos I posted above show the devastation on the continent that we somehow avoided. Again, I would take a week of cool, wet weather over 2-3 days of intense storms like the ones they all got. As bad as our weather has been recently, we have dodged a bullet it appears. They will tell you that...

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

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Still we've been very lucky here in the northwest, no rain yet in June.  It was forecast to get us on Sunday but by Saturday the forecasts showed it staying south and east, which indeed it did.  Given we normally have the opposite pattern, I'm glad to have escaped it this time!  The garden wouldn't mind a bit of rain though on the other hand, I've been having to water it.  A second drawback of the dry weather is that my hay fever has begun, which normally is kept at bay by rain every few days.  The forecast is for continued dry and mostly cloudy weather, temperatures pretty normal here.  It was 18C earlier but has dropped over the afternoon down to 14C now.

One nice thing about the northwest is the moderation - lack of extreme heat, cold, nasty weather.  On the other hand, it is the cloudiest and rainiest part of England.

Manchester, Lancashire, England

53.4ºN, 2.2ºW, 65m AMSL

Köppen climate Cfb | USDA hardiness zone 9a

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7 hours ago, Ryland said:

Still we've been very lucky here in the northwest, no rain yet in June.  It was forecast to get us on Sunday but by Saturday the forecasts showed it staying south and east, which indeed it did.  Given we normally have the opposite pattern, I'm glad to have escaped it this time!  The garden wouldn't mind a bit of rain though on the other hand, I've been having to water it.  A second drawback of the dry weather is that my hay fever has begun, which normally is kept at bay by rain every few days.  The forecast is for continued dry and mostly cloudy weather, temperatures pretty normal here.  It was 18C earlier but has dropped over the afternoon down to 14C now.

One nice thing about the northwest is the moderation - lack of extreme heat, cold, nasty weather.  On the other hand, it is the cloudiest and rainiest part of England.

Bud - check the weather for Oregon - not so moderate the next while.  Two bad fires so far.

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Record breaking heat in the west of North America, from Mexico up to Canada. PNW will get it bad in a few days as the plume of heat continues moving north. 

I know Death Valley has been setting records. Mexico just had it's hottest June temperature on record too...

 

 

Russia and Siberia also seeing record breaking heat, extending well into the arctic circle.

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile western Europe has been running 5-10C below average for a week or so, with violent, destructive storms in Spain, France, Netherlands & Belgium. Now they're moving east through Switzerland, Germany and Austria.

France has been hit bad yet again today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More on the Belgian tornado...

 

 

The storms have now moved into Switzerland, Germany and Austria.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Record breaking heat in the west of North America, from Mexico up to Canada. PNW will get it bad in a few days as the plume of heat continues moving north. 

I know Death Valley has been setting records. Mexico just had it's hottest June temperature on record too...

 

 

Russia and Siberia also seeing record breaking heat, extending well into the arctic circle.

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile western Europe has been running 5-10C below average for a week or so, with violent, destructive storms in Spain, France, Netherlands & Belgium. Now they're moving east through Switzerland, Germany and Austria.

France has been hit bad yet again today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More on the Belgian tornado...

 

 

The storms have now moved into Switzerland, Germany and Austria.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At least when Spain gets bad weather in summer it’s still above 20c and doesn’t  go days without seeing the sun unlike here after a promising start this summer has truly gone to shit as is usually the case with our summers 

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On 6/22/2021 at 12:36 AM, Chester B said:

Bud - check the weather for Oregon - not so moderate the next while.  Two bad fires so far.

Indeed, my mother is very worried about the heat (might we have been talking about different northwests?) and dryness.  I checked the forecast for Medford last night - every day at least upper 90s F including four consecutive days over 100, with a peak of 109 on Sunday!  If I were there I'd be desperate for some rain.  Her Brahea and Washingtonia will love it, but I don't think the Trachycarpus palms will be pleased.

These sorts of conditions do arise for a few weeks every summer in the Rogue Valley, but this is a particularly strong and early one.  I remember 2008, when I still lived there, it reached 114 in Medford which I believe is still the record high.  There was a lot of smoke about then as well :(

I've just checked a few forecasts - looks like it's not much cooler in Portland (fewer 95+ and 100+ days, but still expecting 108 on Sunday) and Seattle may even see 100F.  Brookings on the other hand is mostly in the 60s, with the hottest day forecast at 72F - that would suit me much better.  Hoping you've got the water supply etc. to get all of your plants through.

Manchester, Lancashire, England

53.4ºN, 2.2ºW, 65m AMSL

Köppen climate Cfb | USDA hardiness zone 9a

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107 is the all time high for Portland. They’re saying the temps may go higher than what they’re forecasting so far. I’ve been watering extra but they’re asking us to cut outdoor watering by 50% due to a chlorine shortage.  Can’t win these days. At least I have a newer house with AC. 
 

Hopefully the weather improves up your way. I know how finicky the weather can be over there I spent many months working in Ireland and Northern Ireland. 

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The crazy weather continues across Europe. It has moved away from western Europe, into central and eastern Europe. Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland all affected. Germany has been hit particularly bad over the past 24 hours. Possibly the worst hail storm I have ever seen. Looks more like a blizzard...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Storms in Austria...

 

 

 

 

Floods in Switzerland...

 

 

 

 

Tornadoes tearing roofs off houses in Switzerland...

 

 

In France they have found the body of a 17 year old male who was swept away in the floods...

 

Far east of France still in the firing line on Wednesday...

 

 

Coldest June night in 40 years for the UK though with -2.4C in the Scottish Highlands. London in comparison only dropped down to 12C that night. Still unseasonably cold and wet though for the time of year. Temperatures are trending upwards again though now. 

 

2021 has been a crap year so far, for most of Europe. Especially northwestern Europe. 

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Wow those are some videos.

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Looks like the normal oceanic UK summer influence is around for the forseeable future.

Hopefully some of the palms damaged by the freeze earlier this year will get a decent chance to recover, given that days are starting to get shorter and there are only 8-9 weeks of the meteorological summer left.

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Interesting to compare to a more typical psuedo-mediterranean climate at this time of year (I realise there is a serious heat event but still).

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Here in a totally non-mediterranean climate in mid winter we are having days in the mid teens celcius, however the forecasters are talking about next week being one of the coldest of the last 5 years with an Antarctic blast bringing snow down to low levels in the mountains. Hopefully the subsequent frosts won't be too bad, at this stage the overnight lows don't look too serious.

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We just clocked 20 degrees C / 67F here today which is nice and pleasant for being properly into winter.

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Edited by sipalms
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