My New Hardiness Zone Map of Texas (Handmade)

[Jimbean]

12 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Making a map like that is very much a best-guess, anyway.  That's whether the map uses @Jimbean/ @RedRabbit's method of using marker plants and significant weather events, or the map uses temperature data and statistical analysis.  It would be neat to see a map have overlays of both just to see how close they line up.

I'm glad you pointed out these two fundamental different approaches.  

 

11 hours ago, Xenon said:

I just think it's verging on misleading to make an assumption like that solely on the result of one particular freeze (2021). In the historical record, there are freezes that hit Laredo and McAllen harder than Corpus and Brownsville and vice versa. Houston is generally warmer than San Antonio, but occassionally there are freezes like 2018 that hit Houston harder (especially in terms of deviation from the mean).  Far southeast Texas towards the Louisiana border actually fared better relative to latitude in 2021. 

I just don't think it's stastically accurate or practical to say that Laredo is "more long term for queen palms" than Corpus Christi, it's just that in this singular freeze that's the way it played out.  

I'm curious what you guys in Florida are using as the benchmark for "long term"? Is it 2010 or the 1980s? Why should 2021 arbitrarily be used as the benchmark for "long term"? The absolute lows and duration of cold for 2021 deviated from the long term average much more than any other freeze in the past three decades, the next harshest freeze (2011) doesn't even come close to the degree of deviation from the moving (warming) mean. As far as plants go, I'm not convinced and won't tell others that 2021 is the defnitive freeze for what can grow where. 

I made some graphs a while ago, the data is absolute annual minimum at the Brownsville Airport. You can see post 1989 dots in bold and there's a table that represents the "weight" of the freezes relative to the regression line (the mean absolute annual minimum over time). Hopefully it makes sense, not wanting to get too bogged down with numbers and graphs (also been a while since I've done statistics lol).

 

You have to be careful not to put abstraction above observation.  The reason why I use mature specimens is precisely to account for the differences of freezing events over time.  Kinzyjr pointed out about the two different approaches to map out hardiness; one approach uses data and makes assumptions about cold tolerance to any particular species to fill the gaps, whereas by using observations of specimens doesn't make those assumptions but then makes assumptions in areas that lack the planting of such specimens to begin with.  

 

There's is a point that I am making in this thread though.  Compared to south and central Florida, Texas sucks for long term survival of tropical plants.   

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

 

You have to be careful not to put abstraction above observation.  

There's is a point that I am making in this thread though.  Compared to south and central Florida, Texas sucks for long term survival of tropical plants.   

To be frank, how are you going to accomplish the observation part without being on the ground making observations? Crowd sourcing the data on this forum is a good start, but there are a lot of problems with that too.

I did a short stint with USDA surveying/mapping citrus canker in the Houston Area and the methodology was literally driving around ever neighborhood cul-de-sac looking for citrus trees like it's where's Waldo lol. So I know "observation". Of course, I was/am more interested in the palms 😄. This was an attempt to map W. robusta in spring 2021:

 

As far as comparisons to Florida, I don't think a map is necessary to support the conclusion you're making. No one is going to argue otherwise. South Florida should not be in the discussion at all. No need for more "Texas sucks"

I'm still questioning the insightfulness of  reductive maps like these, especially on how they apply to landscaping choices.  Guess it depends on if you subscribe to the overly conservative camp or closer to the middle. I'm not going to tell someone in Galveston where the average absolute minimum is something like ~31F and has seen 13 consecutive zone 10 winters before that queen palms are not reasonably hardy there. 

[Jimbean]

On 11/16/2024 at 12:24 PM, Xenon said:

I'm still questioning the insightfulness of  reductive maps like these, especially on how they apply to landscaping choices.  Guess it depends on if you subscribe to the overly conservative camp or closer to the middle. I'm not going to tell someone in Galveston where the average absolute minimum is something like ~31F and has seen 13 consecutive zone 10 winters before that queen palms are not reasonably hardy there. 

 

That depends on what context you are defining 'hardy.'  The fact is, in Galveston, you can have a long stretch of years where queen palms look fantastic and royal palms coming along, and then you get a repeat of February 2021.  By the UDSA's definition Galveston is a solid zone 9B, in practice however, in the long term it is suitable as a 9A/9B.  

[Xenon]

9 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

 

That depends on what context you are defining 'hardy.'  The fact is, in Galveston, you can have a long stretch of years where queen palms look fantastic and royal palms coming along, and then you get a repeat of February 2021.  By the UDSA's definition Galveston is a solid zone 9B, in practice however, in the long term it is suitable as a 9A/9B.  

USDA has it as 10a. There is a pretty big distance between the hardiness of royals and queens. Some of the royals there were planted since the late 90s. Some kind of 9B sounds about right but it's too warm to be any kind of 9A.  Even the 50 year average annual minimum including all of the way below average bad freezes of the last 4 years and all of the 80s is ~30F 

 

[Jimbean]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

USDA has it as 10a. There is a pretty big distance between the hardiness of royals and queens. Some of the royals there were planted since the late 90s. Some kind of 9B sounds about right but it's too warm to be any kind of 9A.  Even the 50 year average annual minimum including all of the way below average bad freezes of the last 4 years and all of the 80s is ~30F 

 

I would disregard the 2023 USDA map completely.  The USDA's system for determining hardiness zones should be reviewed.  The fact that you pointed out about Galveston is a case in point why the USDA's hardiness classification system ought to be reformed.  

[kinzyjr]

Here is a little head start for anyone that wants to grab the station data. 

You can grab station data here using daily summaries and the date range: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search

The attached spreadsheet contains the USC, USR, and USW stations for Texas.  Column N is labeled NOAA_ID.  That's what you can use to look up the station in the search above.

NOAA_Stations_TX.xlsx

[RedRabbit]

On 11/16/2024 at 9:21 AM, kinzyjr said:

Basically, you're somewhere around a Lake City, FL planting scheme?  Either way, good to see you're adapting to your new environment well.

What I meant was there’s not many palms for reference. In Tampa Bay I’d look for pre-2010 coconuts or pre-1980s royals. I can’t draw many conclusions from seeing a Washingtonia here, for example. Taking the observations of surviving palms might not work here for a map like in central Florida.

[RedRabbit]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

USDA has it as 10a. There is a pretty big distance between the hardiness of royals and queens. Some of the royals there were planted since the late 90s. Some kind of 9B sounds about right but it's too warm to be any kind of 9A.  Even the 50 year average annual minimum including all of the way below average bad freezes of the last 4 years and all of the 80s is ~30F 

 

Honestly, Galveston does look like 9a. I understand it used to be different, but currently it looks considerably less tropical than 9b in Florida.

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Here is a little head start for anyone that wants to grab the station data. 

You can grab station data here using daily summaries and the date range: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search

The attached spreadsheet contains the USC, USR, and USW stations for Texas.  Column N is labeled NOAA_ID.  That's what you can use to look up the station in the search above.

NOAA_Stations_TX.xlsx 2.9 MB · 1 download

Thank you!

[SeanK]

Like Houston is generally z9a SE and z8b NW. 

[Xenon]

19 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Honestly, Galveston does look like 9a. I understand it used to be different, but currently it looks considerably less tropical than 9b in Florida.

Thank you!

Yes things change 😆. Don't wish landscape changing cold on anyone, but the hammer can come down anytime!

I don't think Jacksonville or New Orleans looked like zone 9 after 1985 either but I'd consider both to be comfortable zone 9 for the most part. The three big coastal I-10 metro areas in the south are all comparable over the long run imo. All 3 have a complex interplay of several water moderating factors (Galveston Bay, the Gulf, Lake P, Mississippi River, The St. John's, the Atlantic) and UHI. Very similar record lows, average annual lows and average temperatures. 

I'm sure you've seen my Houston/Galveston thread full of pics 2 days before the 2021 freeze. I knew 30 years was going down the drain even then. 

[ahosey01]

4 hours ago, Xenon said:

Yes things change 😆. Don't wish landscape changing cold on anyone, but the hammer can come down anytime!

I don't think Jacksonville or New Orleans looked like zone 9 after 1985 either but I'd consider both to be comfortable zone 9 for the most part. The three big coastal I-10 metro areas in the south are all comparable over the long run imo. All 3 have a complex interplay of several water moderating factors (Galveston Bay, the Gulf, Lake P, Mississippi River, The St. John's, the Atlantic) and UHI. Very similar record lows, average annual lows and average temperatures. 

I'm sure you've seen my Houston/Galveston thread full of pics 2 days before the 2021 freeze. I knew 30 years was going down the drain even then. 

85 was bananas for Florida.  Or dead bananas.