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Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989


Collectorpalms

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Just now, amh said:

I hope they're right, but I'm still prepping for 0F.

I do too.  Maybe they are wrong, but multiple 10pm newscasts just forecasted teens for San Antonio.   Not one forecasted single digits and I just sat there and watched 3 of them.  They are (supposedly) looking at the weather 8 hours a day.  

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6 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

I do too.  Maybe they are wrong, but multiple 10pm newscasts just forecasted teens for San Antonio.   Not one forecasted single digits and I just sat there and watched 3 of them.  They are (supposedly) looking at the weather 8 hours a day.  

Again, I hope they're correct. I noticed that WOAI and spectrum were forecasting 11F, while KENS and KSAT were showing teens.

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32 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

The sun will NOT come out tomorrow...

Its been slowly falling through the day if you look upstream. It will hold steady in the afternoon before it begins to fall rapidly with the main surge of arctic air. No moderation of airmass. Nothing, no life lines. 

Maybe that low pressure system will pick up some milder air from az/nm and push it into Texas..  4500' higher here than where you are.. maybe it will spill down into Texas. The arctic air appears it isn't strong enough to push over.. so it must be shallow somewhat..

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1 minute ago, amh said:

Again, I hope they're correct. I noticed that WOAI and spectrum were forecasting 11F, while KENS and KSAT were showing teens.

The lowest one I saw was 12.  Kens was like 15, another was 14, another was 16 earlier in the day, and the Euro model is 17.  If all of these are correct, the GFS model is full of crap.   There's a big difference between 15 and like 5 or 7.  That bit of difference may be the difference in one or 2 of my palm trees surviving.  

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2 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

The lowest one I saw was 12.  Kens was like 15, another was 14, another was 16 earlier in the day, and the Euro model is 17.  If all of these are correct, the GFS model is full of crap.   There's a big difference between 15 and like 5 or 7.  That bit of difference may be the difference in one or 2 of my palm trees surviving.  

I was referring to the websites, they probably haven't updated the forecast yet.

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30 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Just watched all the 10pm forecasts on the local news and they were in the teens for San Antonio.  If they end up accurate, then the GFS is full of crap.

Honestly, I'm starting to feel that this is all overdone. Too many things just don't add up. Not saying don't take precautions though, and I'm ready to eat my words if I'm wrong.

Edited by AnTonY
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3 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

Honestly, I'm starting to feel that this is all overdone. Too many things just don't add up. Not saying don't take precautions though, and I'm ready to eat my words if I'm wrong.

At this point, who knows.  I am prepared to lose tall palm trees.  There is nothing I can do about it.  Whatever happens, happens.  I personally feel it will not get below 10F.  We are just too far south for extended cold.  It has gotten below 10 4 times since 1949, and other than 1949, they were all between 6 and 10.  Is this truly a 50 year freeze.  Maybe so, but it's actually hard to get that cold at 29 degrees latitude.

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On 2/9/2021 at 8:46 AM, Collectorpalms said:

the NAM 6 hour forcast for DFW International was 35, its 30. Officially at 32 at 6am 2/9/21 The NAM has Dallas hovering between 30-37 ( and running too warm at initial) for the NEXT consecutive 80 hours. Before the real "cold event". The real cold event predicted by GFS this would add another several days. I think they are going to need a snow cover to make top 5.

That will prevent a 1983 event if so. ( hours at or below 32)

Most Consecutive Hours at or Below Freezing
295 hrs 7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983

211 hrs

3 pm Jan 15 - 10 am Jan 23, 1930

178 hrs 1 am Jan 23 - 11 am Jan 30, 1948
170 hrs 9 am Feb 1 - 11 am Feb 8, 1905
163 hrs 5 pm Jan 16 - 12 pm Jan 23, 1978
158 hrs 12 am Jan 27 - 2 pm Feb 2, 1951
 139 hrs* 5 pm Jan 3 - 12 pm Jan 9 1942
137 hrs 5 pm Jan 30 - 10 am Feb 5, 1996
*  An additional 58 hours occurred from 6 am Jan 1 to 3 pm Jan 3, 1942.  The temperature climbed to 33 degrees at 4 pm on Jan 3.  Combined with the 139 hours above, this makes a total of 197 inconsecutive hours.

These charts & weather data are interesting- thanks for effort to share! This is my kinda geek discussions (though, I am sad as to why we're all brought here witnessing another historical event.

I can't take much more as of late! :mrlooney:

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My internet company must be metering me, because my connection keeps going out.

Within 72 hours of the coldest day since 1989 for central and north Texas. We now have three models with snow/ice over Texas. Whoever gets this pray its snow/and or sleet and not freezing rain.

GFS previously got my snow correct this  January, but the NAM was good at getting the ice over the hill country yesterday morning.

 

 

gfs_asnow_scus_fh66_trend.gif

gem_asnow_scus_fh66_trend.gif

namconus_asnow_scus_fh66_trend.gif

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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35 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

At this point, who knows.  I am prepared to lose tall palm trees.  There is nothing I can do about it.  Whatever happens, happens.  I personally feel it will not get below 10F.  We are just too far south for extended cold.  It has gotten below 10 4 times since 1949, and other than 1949, they were all between 6 and 10.  Is this truly a 50 year freeze.  Maybe so, but it's actually hard to get that cold at 29 degrees latitude.

I hope you're right though I am prepping for the worst. I have never seen such low temps, even during the day, for days in a row. Something is really really off. 

Edited by Swolte
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Tuesday February 2021, Coldest temperature since Dec 22, 1989 across central and North Texas. Three models, Candadian goes for coldest. ( hoping for the NAM in College station!) 

gem_T2m_scus_fh84_trend.gif

gfs_T2m_scus_fh84_trend.gif

namconus_T2m_scus_fh84_trend.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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2 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Tuesday February 2011, Coldest day across central and North Texas. Three models, Candadian goes for coldest. ( hoping for the NAM in College station!) 

Same here and hoping for no freezing rain.

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31 years, 1 month, 25 days excluding the end date till the end of a great run we have had!

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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On 2/9/2021 at 6:39 PM, NBTX11 said:

Without digging up a bunch or records and maps, I feel like I am about 2 or 3 degrees warmer than College Station.  Certainly quite a bit further south anyways.  Where I am at is south of Central Houston.  I got nothing in terms of snow this year.  Literally nothing other than 10 min of sleet.

I actually think that we have milder temperatures here in the southern part of Georgia and especially the SE part of the state closer to the coast. It’s snowed here once since I’ve been alive, and it’s never sleeted- ever. It rarely gets below 25. And when it gets below freezing, it’s usually very brief.  Texas is a lot more susceptible to those artic blasts than we are here in southern and SE Georgia. In fact, I believe the cold weather is more milder here where I live than the panhandle of Florida. 

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8 minutes ago, Jcalvin said:

I actually think that we have milder temperatures here in the southern part of Georgia and especially the SE part of the state closer to the coast. It’s snowed here once since I’ve been alive, and it’s never sleeted- ever. It rarely gets below 25. And when it gets below freezing, it’s usually very brief.  Texas is a lot more susceptible to those artic blasts than we are here in southern and SE Georgia. In fact, I believe the cold weather is more milder here where I live than the panhandle of Florida. 

Yeah, being along a large body of water makes a huge difference. North and West of Houston might see 15*F, but go South of Houston, down along Galveston Bay and it’s mid to upper 20’s. Galveston Island might be over 30*F. I’m sure it’s the same way inland from you.

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4 hours ago, Jcalvin said:

I actually think that we have milder temperatures here in the southern part of Georgia and especially the SE part of the state closer to the coast. It’s snowed here once since I’ve been alive, and it’s never sleeted- ever. It rarely gets below 25. And when it gets below freezing, it’s usually very brief.  Texas is a lot more susceptible to those artic blasts than we are here in southern and SE Georgia. In fact, I believe the cold weather is more milder here where I live than the panhandle of Florida. 

It's what I described earlier, a happenstance of particular upper-air patterns. Make no mistake, Southern Georgia and adjacent Florida can certainly get deep cold and freezes along with wintry events - hence the record lows in 1985, teens in Jacksonville during 2003, as well as the icing event in Brunswick/Glynn county during 2018. But, in recent years, there's just been certain tendencies in patterns.

All that's been happening is that Southern Georgia and Florida have been less exposed to active upper-levels and storm tracks, and the constant disturbances, shortwaves, low-pressure systems that ride along them - likely an effect from the W. Atlantic High.  Meanwhile, there's been a persistent tendency towards low pressure systems in the SW US/Northern Mexico/Baja region, which means that Texas and the Gulf states through the Florida Panhandle are put in closer to the storm track and associated effects. This is why you see lots of winter rainfall in Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle, whereas the rest of Florida, especially the peninsula, sees a strong winter dry season.

The disturbances that are responsible for bringing the wintry precip and cold advection event into Texas actually originated over the North Pacific, and moved in onshore Northern California and Oregon.  But, guess what? They took a dive into Arizona, causing them to have more effect on the Texas weather patterns. This is exactly what I mean when I refer to the frequency of low pressure in the SW US, the disturbances always come in and dive down deep in that region, or form there - doesn't matter what the antecedents are. You see, had those disturbances stayed more on a straight course across the northern tier of the country from Northern California and Oregon, then Texas would just be dealing with a simple chilly period without the threat of flirting with record lows - the surface high bringing the chill would then have moved east, away from Texas. Instead, those disturbances always take that same positive dive into Arizona, and then eject - this causes surface low pressure to develop off the Texas Gulf, and the northerly flow on the back side will suck down the pent up polar vortex air right down through Texas, and even down the Gulf Coast of Mexico (hence the freeze at Tampico). It's exactly the same set-up as a Nor'Easter (Bombogenesis).

Edited by AnTonY
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27 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

It's what I described earlier, a happenstance of particular upper-air patterns. Make no mistake, Southern Georgia and adjacent Florida can certainly get deep cold and freezes along with wintry events - hence the record lows in 1985, teens in Jacksonville during 2003, as well as the icing event in Brunswick/Glynn county during 2018. But, in recent years, there's just been certain tendencies in patterns.

All that's been happening is that Southern Georgia and Florida have been less exposed to active upper-levels and storm tracks, and the constant disturbances, shortwaves, low-pressure systems that ride along them - likely an effect from the W. Atlantic High.  Meanwhile, there's been a persistent tendency towards low pressure systems in the SW US/Northern Mexico/Baja region, which means that Texas and the Gulf states through the Florida Panhandle are put in closer to the storm track and associated effects. This is why you see lots of winter rainfall in Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle, whereas the rest of Florida, especially the peninsula, sees a strong winter dry season.

The disturbances that are responsible for bringing the wintry precip and cold advection event into Texas actually originated over the North Pacific, and moved in onshore Northern California and Oregon.  But, guess what? They took a dive into Arizona, causing them to have more effect on the Texas weather patterns. This is exactly what I mean when I refer to the frequency of low pressure in the SW US, the disturbances always come in and dive down deep in that region, or form there - doesn't matter what the antecedents are. You see, had those disturbances stayed more on a straight course across the northern tier of the country from Northern California and Oregon, then Texas would just be dealing with a simple chilly period without the threat of flirting with record lows - the surface high bringing the chill would then have moved east, away from Texas. Instead, those disturbances always take that same positive dive into Arizona, and then eject - this causes surface low pressure to develop off the Texas Gulf, and the northerly flow on the back side will suck down the pent up polar vortex air right down through Texas, and even down the Gulf Coast of Mexico (hence the freeze at Tampico). It's exactly the same set-up as a Nor'Easter (Bombogenesis).

So way isnt this polar airmass able to moderate like other ones have....especially being so far south? Does this also mean we have "exhausted" the supply of frigid air or is more being produced and stored toward the poles? Im so ready for this winter to be over!

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Nor’easter and  Bombogenesis Are not synonymous. Nor’Easters typically have 40+ mph winds, and often have mslp’s in the sub 980mb sometimes even into the 960’s. Nothing off the coast of Texas is remotely that strong. Bombogenesis is a term used to define a storm that’s has gone under rapid intensification of 1mb/h for 24 consecutive hours tropical or non tropical. Many nor’easters do undergo this however. I’ve lived through many Nor’easters, The nearly back to back storms of 1978 , the 1993 superstorm and all of them up until 2015. 
 

that being said. This is a historic forecast for Dallas .

 

 

8F72375B-6519-4876-AC04-BF5777EBC65F.png

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Never say we Never, we had a strong gulf storm this time of year.

1969:

 

 

E896B509-17AC-47EA-A82A-26E78F6774C7.jpeg

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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Never said never , just right now ;) you won’t see freezing rain in a nor Easter, too much mixing in the layers of the atmosphere. It’s usually caused by CAD

 

but that’s a doozy of a storm :blink:

Edited by RJ
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2 hours ago, AnTonY said:

It's what I described earlier, a happenstance of particular upper-air patterns. Make no mistake, Southern Georgia and adjacent Florida can certainly get deep cold and freezes along with wintry events - hence the record lows in 1985, teens in Jacksonville during 2003, as well as the icing event in Brunswick/Glynn county during 2018. But, in recent years, there's just been certain tendencies in patterns.

All that's been happening is that Southern Georgia and Florida have been less exposed to active upper-levels and storm tracks, and the constant disturbances, shortwaves, low-pressure systems that ride along them - likely an effect from the W. Atlantic High.  Meanwhile, there's been a persistent tendency towards low pressure systems in the SW US/Northern Mexico/Baja region, which means that Texas and the Gulf states through the Florida Panhandle are put in closer to the storm track and associated effects. This is why you see lots of winter rainfall in Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle, whereas the rest of Florida, especially the peninsula, sees a strong winter dry season.

The disturbances that are responsible for bringing the wintry precip and cold advection event into Texas actually originated over the North Pacific, and moved in onshore Northern California and Oregon.  But, guess what? They took a dive into Arizona, causing them to have more effect on the Texas weather patterns. This is exactly what I mean when I refer to the frequency of low pressure in the SW US, the disturbances always come in and dive down deep in that region, or form there - doesn't matter what the antecedents are. You see, had those disturbances stayed more on a straight course across the northern tier of the country from Northern California and Oregon, then Texas would just be dealing with a simple chilly period without the threat of flirting with record lows - the surface high bringing the chill would then have moved east, away from Texas. Instead, those disturbances always take that same positive dive into Arizona, and then eject - this causes surface low pressure to develop off the Texas Gulf, and the northerly flow on the back side will suck down the pent up polar vortex air right down through Texas, and even down the Gulf Coast of Mexico (hence the freeze at Tampico). It's exactly the same set-up as a Nor'Easter (Bombogenesis).

Yeah, 2018 was a booger. It wasn’t so much the temperature, it was the freak snow and then ice that came though, covered the plants and then remained for 4 or 5 hours. And, I think that’s another huge point. Sustained cold- especially below freezing- is just so rare. I think that’s another huge difference in Georgia and Florida 9A/8b versus the 9A/8b one sees in, say, Texas. Maybe I’m completely wrong about this. 
 

The kids enjoyed it though, and we didn’t have to drive to the mountains to see it. 

Edited by Jcalvin
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I just wanted to reach out for some advice. In my area we have been below freezing for a few days now and we probably will not get above freezing again until next Friday. Absolute lows are predicted to get as low as -2 to -7F over the next few mornings with highs in the low teens.

With all of that said I have wrapped my more vulnerable palms (washingtonia hybrid, waggies, takils, palmetto, and even S. birmingham) in frostcloth with tarps wrapped over that. Without heat, I am still afraid that I am about to lose all of my marginal palms at once. I am sure my sabals (I have a lot of small minors) will grow back even if they completely defoliate.  I may even lose all of my needle palms too, since they tend to spear pull on me when small even in good years.

I have two smallish takils, 3 to 5 gal size, on the south side of my home (about 18 inches from the foundation and the concrete driveway). I have one more takil and two waggies on the east side of my home also near the foundation. This is the first winter in the ground for the takils, planted last spring, and the second winter for the waggies. 

Should I dig any of these palms and put them in my insulated attic or in my garage? Or will i do more harm than good at this point? I also don't know how hard I should  work to save palms that can apparently get wiped out so easily. I have no guarantee that we won't see this kind of cold again next year. I have considered digging just one of the takils ao I don't lose them all, but i bought 3 of them in the hopes of getting seed one day.

What would you do in my shoes?

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It might be too late at this point. That would be a while for them to be out of sunlight and going into those dormancy conditions already being very unhappy.  Is the ground still not frozen over where you live? 

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Go! ANY and ALL measure are needed to save all palms north of Austin, Texas. with maristems above ground. Minors underground will recover.

We are knocking out one of our average 20 year freezes, so do something anything you can think of. I have a lot in my garage, but I got plants so pretty and tall, they are looking bad and its going to drop 20 more degrees and stay under 32 until who know!

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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4 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

It might be too late at this point. That would be a while for them to be out of sunlight and going into those dormancy conditions already being very unhappy.  Is the ground still not frozen over where you live? 

The ground is definitely frozen at the surface, our soil is full of rocks though, so i think the tools to get smaller palms dug out if needed.

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20 minutes ago, Ben OK said:

I just wanted to reach out for some advice. In my area we have been below freezing for a few days now and we probably will not get above freezing again until next Friday. Absolute lows are predicted to get as low as -2 to -7F over the next few mornings with highs in the low teens.

With all of that said I have wrapped my more vulnerable palms (washingtonia hybrid, waggies, takils, palmetto, and even S. birmingham) in frostcloth with tarps wrapped over that. Without heat, I am still afraid that I am about to lose all of my marginal palms at once. I am sure my sabals (I have a lot of small minors) will grow back even if they completely defoliate.  I may even lose all of my needle palms too, since they tend to spear pull on me when small even in good years.

I have two smallish takils, 3 to 5 gal size, on the south side of my home (about 18 inches from the foundation and the concrete driveway). I have one more takil and two waggies on the east side of my home also near the foundation. This is the first winter in the ground for the takils, planted last spring, and the second winter for the waggies. 

Should I dig any of these palms and put them in my insulated attic or in my garage? Or will i do more harm than good at this point? I also don't know how hard I should  work to save palms that can apparently get wiped out so easily. I have no guarantee that we won't see this kind of cold again next year. I have considered digging just one of the takils ao I don't lose them all, but i bought 3 of them in the hopes of getting seed one day.

What would you do in my shoes?

I would dig what you can and put them in the garage.  Make sure to get as much rootball as you can on those Sabals(all of them really but especially Sabals).

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1 hour ago, Jcalvin said:

Yeah, 2018 was a booger. It wasn’t so much the temperature, it was the freak snow and then ice that came though, covered the plants and then remained for 4 or 5 hours. And, I think that’s another huge point. Sustained cold- especially below freezing- is just so rare. I think that’s another huge difference in Georgia and Florida 9A/8b versus the 9A/8b one sees in, say, Texas. Maybe I’m completely wrong about this. 
 

The kids enjoyed it though, and we didn’t have to drive to the mountains to see it. 

You're not wrong, the inland Panhandle of Florida(for example) has seen temperatures near or just below zero in recorded history and Tallahassee for instance has been to -2F, close to Dallas's all time record low.

However, The Florida Panhandle would NEVER have a week of highs in the teens and 20s (at least there is no precident in recorded history for such).

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9 hours ago, Jcalvin said:

I actually think that we have milder temperatures here in the southern part of Georgia and especially the SE part of the state closer to the coast. It’s snowed here once since I’ve been alive, and it’s never sleeted- ever. It rarely gets below 25. And when it gets below freezing, it’s usually very brief.  Texas is a lot more susceptible to those artic blasts than we are here in southern and SE Georgia. In fact, I believe the cold weather is more milder here where I live than the panhandle of Florida. 

Actually this is not correct.  Southeast Georgia and NE Florida are just as susceptible to extreme cold as Texas.  The record low for Jacksonville, Florida is 9 degrees.  That falls right in line with Houston.  Jacksonville has also seen 10 degrees on 2 other occasions and low teens on many occasions.  It just so happens that this particular cold event drove straight down into Texas.  I can't tell you how many times I have seen Central Texas warm, high, and dry, and a cold event drove straight into the SE and Georgia.  This happens.  This is a real thing that occurs.

All time record lows, Jacksonville FL

  Jacksonville FL Lowest Temperature Each Year - Current Results

1989 - 18F

1985 - 9F

1983 - 14F 

1982 - 16F

1981 - 14F

1970 - 19F

1962 - 14F

1940 - 17F

1928 - 19F

1917 - 16F

1909 - 19F

1905 - 17F

1900 - 18F

1899 - 10F

1895 - 14F

1894 - 14F

1886 - 15F

1880 - 19F

 

Translation:  It can get extremely cold in SE Georgia.  Inland southern Georgia has seen single digits, possibly as low as zero (don't have time to look up every city) on many occasions.  Fact.

 

Edited by NBTX11
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We had a squall line move through a couple hours ago that delivered some much-needed rainfall.  Had a few close lightning strikes and winds probably in the 25-35 mph range.  Evidence of the power of the extreme weather events taking place in the Eastern half of the country.

That rain was cold!

-Michael

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@chinandega81

It's moderating the best it can ... seems that the airmass really is THAT cold. The problem is the upper-air disturbances that keep diving south into Arizona, New Mexico, and the Baja - if the storm track had stayed north, then what you're seeing NOW in Texas would have been the very worst of the event - a low pressure would form in the Northern US, then drag this cold airmass east out of Texas, allowing the state to warm up.

 

@RJ

I didn't mean that they were synonymous. I just sort of threw in Bombogenesis as a buzzword, just to describe the general relative rapid deepening that coastal low pressures can go through versus their counterparts on land.

 

@NBTX11 @Jcalvin

What's happening in Texas right now is basically the equivalent of if there were a massive CAD event east of the Appalachians that extended down into Florida. The cold airmass is very shallow, and the flurry of low pressures aloft from the SW US just won't cease - that keeps lots of cloud cover that prevents insolation. And then one of these low pressures passes south enough to induce cyclogenesis over the Gulf - sucking out all the deep cold air.  Any slight shifts regarding the track of the system has huge implications on the forecast.

I really don't know what the GFS is seeing that is causing it to drive the night time temperatures that low. The Euro is much milder in comparison. Given how shallow the airmass is, the flow aloft is unchanged, so I would think that clearing wouldn't be too long before high-level cloud cover makes it overhead. Lower snowfall totals will also keep things milder.

Edited by AnTonY
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This model does not look good for Austin.  This model is basically predicting the extreme ridiculous cold with stop at Austin, while San Antonio is just brutally cold (teens).  

Austin2.jpg

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44 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Actually this is not correct.  Southeast Georgia and NE Florida are just as susceptible to extreme cold as Texas.  The record low for Jacksonville, Florida is 9 degrees.  That falls right in line with Houston.  Jacksonville has also seen 10 degrees on 2 other occasions and low teens on many occasions.  It just so happens that this particular cold event drove straight down into Texas.  I can't tell you how many times I have seen Central Texas warm, high, and dry, and a cold event drove straight into the SE and Georgia.  This happens.  This is a real thing that occurs.

All time record lows, Jacksonville FL

  Jacksonville FL Lowest Temperature Each Year - Current Results

1989 - 18F

1985 - 9F

1983 - 14F 

1982 - 16F

1981 - 14F

1970 - 19F

1962 - 14F

1940 - 17F

1928 - 19F

1917 - 16F

1909 - 19F

1905 - 17F

1900 - 18F

1899 - 10F

1895 - 14F

1894 - 14F

1886 - 15F

1880 - 19F

 

Translation:  It can get extremely cold in SE Georgia.  Inland southern Georgia has seen single digits, possibly as low as zero (don't have time to look up every city) on many occasions.  Fact.

 

It hasn’t got in the teens in the last 30 years. And, like I said, sustained cold and below freezing temperatures are rare- especially in my lifetime.
 

Look, I get it. I’ve read through this entire thread and you seem pretty passionate about your cold weather and hardiness zone. And, I can’t say that I blame you. 

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24 minutes ago, Jcalvin said:

It hasn’t got in the teens in the last 30 years. And, like I said, sustained cold and below freezing temperatures are rare- especially in my lifetime.
 

Look, I get it. I’ve read through this entire thread and you seem pretty passionate about your cold weather and hardiness zone. And, I can’t say that I blame you. 

Teens in Houston for example is also rare the past 30 years.  I know they got to 19 maybe once.  That's probably it.  Brunswick GA is no warmer than Houston Texas.  Actually, if you look at the records and averages, Houston is warmer...all the time (with the exception of this event).  Now if you're talking about Dallas, and probably Austin, then I would actually agree with you.  This is a once in a lifetime event for Texas.  You can't draw conclusions, based off a one time event, unless I can draw conclusions based off of 1985 in Georgia and Florida. 

In the 1985 freeze, it looks like Brunswick GA got to 3 degrees, while Houston only dropped to 20F.  South Georgia took the brunt of this freeze, with inland South GA dropping to 0F...far colder than anywhere in Texas, including Dallas.

 Jan85Coldest.png (1600×1113) (weather.gov)

1985.jpg

Edited by NBTX11
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I will never understand the arguing over whose marginal climate is better. I also don’t understand why it’s so hard to make objective comparisons. You guys in south Georgia and north Florida keep telling yourself you’ll never get this cold. This event shouldn’t convince you that southeast Texas is colder, it should convince you that the terrible all-time records can and will happen again. Best of luck, now keep that stuff out of this discussion. Thanks. 

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1 hour ago, amh said:

Forecast has been updated to above 5F, hopefully a good trend.

Yes, they are moving slightly in the right direction.  The problem is, however, that the period of extended cold is getting longer.

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