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Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989


Collectorpalms

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11 minutes ago, necturus said:

Curious what you guys think. I have a few mules in the 7-8 foot range. One is just starting to trunk. 

Would you leave them be or dig them up and move them to the garage? I'm in Houston on the southwest side. My garage is unheated, and it looks like I won't be able to get a propane heater in time.

You have 1-2 more days to see if the temp forecast changes.  If the temp is under 20F they may take damage.  If it goes under 15 it might kill them.  Digging is safest if you don't want to wrap and heat them somehow.  A pole down the middle and fronds tied together and a blanket wrapped around them and tied with a large garbage bag over top would probably pull thru the 15-20 range for 1 night.  

Edited by Allen

YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  18' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia odorata (1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -6F, -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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13 minutes ago, necturus said:

Curious what you guys think. I have a few mules in the 7-8 foot range. One is just starting to trunk. 

Would you leave them be or dig them up and move them to the garage? I'm in Houston on the southwest side. My garage is unheated, and it looks like I won't be able to get a propane heater in time.

Save them! Cover them! Dig them up! if you can.... If you only end up on the best case scenario you could still lose small ones!
 

!!! three more !!!

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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10 minutes ago, necturus said:

Curious what you guys think. I have a few mules in the 7-8 foot range. One is just starting to trunk. 

Would you leave them be or dig them up and move them to the garage? I'm in Houston on the southwest side. My garage is unheated, and it looks like I won't be able to get a propane heater in time.

Heat lamps can be found at most pet and feed stores, they are very inefficient, but can heat a confined area.

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What I can't figure out is why Del Rio has much milder lows forecasted than San Antonio on weather.com. The two are the same latitude, quite close in distance, and the former is actually more inland. 

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I am just outside of Athens,  GA and have lived in Georgia since I moved here in 1998 from Jax, FL. The lowest temp in Athens since 98 was 7 degrees F in January 2014. I didn't see any established palmettos die from that temperature.  If your plant is not established, there may be some trouble. I think the Palmetto is a solid 7b palm when established. I would be concerned about temps below 5F but I think many of the palms would likely make it through 0-5F. 

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This isn’t Georgia! This is a Texas Size freeze folks!

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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4 minutes ago, amh said:

Heat lamps can be found at most pet and feed stores, they are very inefficient, but can heat a confined area.

Yup, literally just got home from petsmart.  150w reptile heat bulb and fixture was like $45 but had no choice.  HD and Lowes were cleared out of anything that produces heat.

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I get that I'm really fortunate living in an apartment with all my palms in pots, but I borrowed a furniture dolly from work to wheel my Washy inside. Still not taking the Xmas lights off of it but it'll be in the warmth. My patio already had ice on it this morning and the cold front really isn't even here yet. 

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13 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

Yup, literally just got home from petsmart.  150w reptile heat bulb and fixture was like $45 but had no choice.  HD and Lowes were cleared out of anything that produces heat.

The lamps for chicks are good too.

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18 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

What I can't figure out is why Del Rio has much milder lows forecasted than San Antonio on weather.com. The two are the same latitude, quite close in distance, and the former is actually more inland. 

Del Río is outside of the trajectory of the coldest air, for now, things can change.

I watched the forecasted low temperatures east of the Mississippi River moderate as the cold zeroed in on the Plains. The lows in NYC’s forecast moderated by as much as 20+ degrees, from low teens to mid 30’s on some nights.

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10 hours ago, boaterboat said:

I ordered strip heaters to at least try to protect the heart of my Livistona Chinensis, but the ice is already snapping fronds, and it looks like it will drop another 20 degrees Sunday and Monday. 
 

I am going to do all I can to protect them, but already planning what to replace them with. I have Pindos I’m not sure will make it. Will Texas Sabals even make it through this?

7A1AB9FF-42F6-4076-9404-869E08689963.jpeg

1AFDA240-54C1-4A2C-B0F5-ADB2C77AACFD.jpeg

In southern texas, sabals can survive this. But in Dallas, their all dead.

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Nothing to say here. 

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North texas will get down to 10f. If you have wood, build an insulated structure and wrap with c9 christmas lights. 

Edited by EastCanadaTropicals

Nothing to say here. 

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On 2/10/2021 at 5:41 AM, Collectorpalms said:

Morning GFS goes for COLDEST EVER TEMP for HOUSTON-HOBBY Downtown (9F Hobby) Predicting 2 to 7 through the metro area. Galveston, College Station, Austin, Dallas, Corpus Christi all within 1 or 2 degrees from all time records. Some of those records go back to the late 1800s. 

gfs_T2m_scus_fh150_trend.gif

Rip to the coconut palms in Brownsville:crying:

Edited by EastCanadaTropicals
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Nothing to say here. 

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Just now, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Youre incorrect, The coconuts wont die in spi. Brownsville maybe but not SPI. 

Must have a great microclimate there.... They still will get damaged.

Nothing to say here. 

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2 minutes ago, EastCanadaTropicals said:

Must have a great microclimate there.... They still will get damaged.

Literally every living thing outside is gonna take some damage this week. 

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The south padre island forecast doesnt even have a freeze forecasted. 36 is the low meanwhile McAllen has a 27 and 22f and Brownsville is 28 and 25f.  That 4 miles towards the water makes a huge difference.  

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39 minutes ago, GeorgiaPalms said:

I am just outside of Athens,  GA and have lived in Georgia since I moved here in 1998 from Jax, FL. The lowest temp in Athens since 98 was 7 degrees F in January 2014. I didn't see any established palmettos die from that temperature.  If your plant is not established, there may be some trouble. I think the Palmetto is a solid 7b palm when established. I would be concerned about temps below 5F but I think many of the palms would likely make it through 0-5F. 

I’m sure with them enduring winters halfway up the East coast, more than likely a few will be able to survive 1 nasty winter in Texas.

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The good news is that this year I was going to start field planting tens of thousands of plants so I'll see what pulls through and make an adjustment or two.  I know filifera will make it but I'm curious about large mexicana, butia and nannorhorps.  

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1 minute ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

The south padre island forecast doesnt even have a freeze forecasted. 36 is the low meanwhile McAllen has a 27 and 22f and Brownsville is 28 and 25f. 

Doom and gloom GFS has consistently been (relatively) sparing the RGV for the past few days' runs. NWS actually has it getting colder than the model which can't be said for NWS forecasts elsewhere in TX

gfs_T2m_contour_scus_fh72-96.gif.219181b67c9df3e76bc87bfdbe69a7bc.gif

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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13 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Doom and gloom GFS has consistently been (relatively) sparing the RGV for the past few days' runs. NWS actually has it getting colder than the model which can't be said for NWS forecasts elsewhere in TX

gfs_T2m_contour_scus_fh72-96.gif.219181b67c9df3e76bc87bfdbe69a7bc.gif

Ignore all models! Its 41 on SPI and the same in McAllen, and the real cold is yet to come. Models resolution not great at the coast. Go from what your seeing now. Any NNW isnt going to help SPI, NNE will, but its even changed on the model that SPI will be worse. This was expected!

Edited by Collectorpalms

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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13 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

The good news is that this year I was going to start field planting tens of thousands of plants so I'll see what pulls through and make an adjustment or two.  I know filifera will make it but I'm curious about large mexicana, butia and nannorhorps.  

I definitely will be interested to see what your results are 

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35 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

The good news is that this year I was going to start field planting tens of thousands of plants so I'll see what pulls through and make an adjustment or two.  I know filifera will make it but I'm curious about large mexicana, butia and nannorhorps.  

This fall I bought a filifera from you off eBay and never received it. I’d like one still.

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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38 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

I’m sure with them enduring winters halfway up the East coast, more than likely a few will be able to survive 1 nasty winter in Texas.

I think so. One thing to note though is when we did have 7°F here overnight, it was nearly 50°F the following day. I hope the length of the cold won't be more decisive than absolute low.

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13 minutes ago, GeorgiaPalms said:

I think so. One thing to note though is when we did have 7°F here overnight, it was nearly 50°F the following day. I hope the length of the cold won't be more decisive than absolute low.

Imagine your worst nightmare's, and then make it worse. Hope for a miracle. Nothing Else even compares to what central and north Texas will endure the next several days.

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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3 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Imagine your worst nightmare's, and then make it worse. Hope for a miracle. Nothing Else even compares to what central and north Texas will endure the next several days.

I hope it won't be that bad. I've got my fingers crossed for everyone impacted by this. 

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The last time I saw anything this cold, I was living in St Cloud MN - 21 years ago. You expect this in Minnesota. You don't expect this in the south 115 miles off the Gulf. I don't even own a coat or gloves. I've got a few hoodies and a pair of Timberland boots. 

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Duration Duration, Duration. I am focused on the Dallas, Austin, Waco, College Station areas as a historic event.

Check out forecast for the next 7-10 days.

dfwgfs.png

ausgfs.png

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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1 minute ago, JohnAndSancho said:

The last time I saw anything this cold, I was living in St Cloud MN - 21 years ago. You expect this in Minnesota. You don't expect this in the south 115 miles off the Gulf. I don't even own a coat or gloves. I've got a few hoodies and a pair of Timberland boots. 

Crazy..  I just looked at houston and they are going down to 11f after a high temp of 21f.  Oh man I feel for you guys..  they dropped our Temps here.. enough where all my palms will defoliate.. I think I'm going to protect my butia/ jubaea hybrids.. and my saguaro too.  Time to get out the heat tapes.. im going and getting some tarps tomorrow..  

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The storm part will be coming right over us on Sunday.  1-4" of snow is what they are saying.. but then it gets cold as the sky falls out.. blech.. 

bfc4bccc484183a94cc5346527ec61d8.jpg

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1 minute ago, SailorBold said:

 

Crazy..  I just looked at houston and they are going down to 11f after a high temp of 21f.  Oh man I feel for you guys..  they dropped our Temps here.. enough where all my palms will defoliate.. I think I'm going to protect my butia/ jubaea hybrids.. and my saguaro too.  Time to get out the heat tapes.. im going and getting some tarps tomorrow..  

When I moved up here, it already blew my mind how vastly different the climate was from Houston even though I'm only ~50 miles or so from the "nawf side" - I mean, it was just 4 weeks ago my hotel was packed with people and TV crews from Houston and Galveston who wanted to see snow. 

 

This. Is. Not. Good. 

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My cold hardy section of yard as of a few day’s ago. 
need palm, Sabal minor, and a oak shumardii,  

Early blooming variety of daffodils and hyacinths that will bloom when it’s cool. It’s going be colder here then the Netherlands where they have windmills, lol and windmill palms.
I am worried for things like my Mexican oak being damaged etc.. amaryllis bulbs freezing Etc.. etc..

A6A67B10-97B8-4DBA-8FA3-2A66240BD19D.jpeg

Edited by Collectorpalms
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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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1 hour ago, Collectorpalms said:

This fall I bought a filifera from you off eBay and never received it. I’d like one still.

I sent you a refund.

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Looks like dfw will easily beat the consecutive hours below freezing record from 1989 if we dont hit 32 tomorrow afternoon when the sun come.

Edit i looked and 1983 was the record not 1989.  1983 was 295hrs. 

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The sun will NOT come out tomorrow...

Its been slowly falling through the day if you look upstream. It will hold steady in the afternoon before it begins to fall rapidly with the main surge of arctic air. No moderation of airmass. Nothing, no life lines. 

Edited by Collectorpalms

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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I saw 100 seconds of sunshine late today then it dissapeared for good....:o( I'd have to look at the weather station but we've been below 32 for a long time already.  

 

Edit I just looked and after this nightmare is over we could easily surpass 200hrs of sub freezing temperatures.  

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2 hours ago, cm05 said:

Del Río is outside of the trajectory of the coldest air, for now, things can change.

That's what I thought at first. But then, when I looked closely at various model parameters, I didn't see anything there that struck me as different from San Antonio in terms of cold air advection. With surface winds, both start getting the full northerly blast from Sunday evening into Monday morning - both actually start getting teens that Monday morning as well, not just Tuesday. But, somehow, Del Rio reaches 37°F that Monday afternoon (weather.com forecast)? The day continues, the surface low moves eastward across the Gulf, and then winds aloft from both locations start turning from the west. 850mb winds from the west should bring downsloping to both areas, and westerly 500mb winds implies misalignment w/ the surface, and resulting lack of depth with the cold (so the skies shouldn't be clear for long).

So I'm thinking that feel either San Antonio's low temps are overdone, or Del Rio's are too warm. My hunch is that the models might be "seeing" greater "snowfall" over San Antonio, and then overdoing the lows for that, even though the "snowfall" in those models also contains sleet. Either that, or it could just be a happenstance of timing regarding their location relative to the surface high + the time of day at such point.

2 hours ago, cm05 said:

I watched the forecasted low temperatures east of the Mississippi River moderate as the cold zeroed in on the Plains. The lows in NYC’s forecast moderated by as much as 20+ degrees, from low teens to mid 30’s on some nights.

Yep. At this point, for Texas, the arctic airmass has already sank in and bled through, all the way to the Gulf, and even down into Mexico. With the cold air already in place, it's obviously all in the hands of the surface low that forms over the Gulf. It's possible that if CAD areas east of the Appalachians overperform with their cold, then the surface low will take a more easterly path, avoiding a "cut" west of the Appalachians. That could mitigate things for Texas, I think.

Edited by AnTonY
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Had 4 hours of temperatures between 32 and 33 today, that's it for above freezing till Wednesday, but probably Thursday.

 

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Just watched all the 10pm forecasts on the local news and they were in the teens for San Antonio.  If they end up accurate, then the GFS is full of crap.

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Just now, NBTX11 said:

Just watched all the 10pm forecasts on the local news and they were in the teens for San Antonio.  If they end up accurate, then the GFS is full of crap.

I hope they're right, but I'm still prepping for 0F.

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