Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989

[NBTX11]

The Euro model went up a couple more degrees for San Antonio, now showing 17 Monday night. 

[NBTX11]

Central Houston at 16-17 Monday night.  Looking much worse for those on the west side of town.   

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[NBTX11]

College Station Monday night on the Euro, around 8 or 9F.

[Meangreen94z]

4 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

The Euro model moderated a few degrees.  Saying around 15 for San Antonio.  Was saying around 10-13 or so.

 

I would go worst case scenario at this point. That’s the direction it’s been going for a week

[Josue Diaz]

I just saw that Galveston is going to be down to 23F, and below freezing for roughly 30 continuous hours. This can't be good for all the tropicals growing there... Wishing you all the best this weekend! 

[NBTX11]

3 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

 

Don't go by some phone app.  How much thought do you think they put into their forecast.  Look at models, and look at a variety of your local meteorologists that are actually studying the data.  I watched 3 different stations weather forecasts for San Antonio this morning and looked at the Euro model.  As of now, they have 14, 15, 16,  and 17 for lows.  That could change for the worse for sure.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[Meangreen94z]

9 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Don't go by some phone app.  How much thought do you think they put into their forecast.  Look at models, and look at a variety of your local meteorologists that are actually studying the data.  I watched 3 different stations weather forecasts for San Antonio this morning and looked at the Euro model.  As of now, they have 14, 15, 16,  and 17 for lows.  That could change for the worse for sure.

It’s the weatherchannel forecast, which has aligned much closer with the GFS model for several days that was posted a week ago. As mentioned in the beginning of the thread the Euro model has been way off the whole time

[NBTX11]

9 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

It’s the weatherchannel forecast, which has aligned much closer with the GFS model for several days that was posted a week ago. As mentioned in the beginning of the thread the Euro model has been way off the whole time

OK, maybe so, however why are KSAT and KENS forecasting around 15 or 16 also.  That lines up with the Euro.  Are they all looking at the Euro.   The Weather channel out of Atlanta is not sitting around looking at individual forecasts for SA, they are just spitting out whatever model they are looking at, which apparently is the GFS, so I don't put any extra stock into the weather channel.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[amh]

5 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

OK, maybe so, however why are KSAT and KENS forecasting around 15 or 16 also.  That lines up with the Euro.  Are they all looking at the Euro.   The Weather channel out of Atlanta is not sitting around looking at individual forecasts for SA, they are just spitting out whatever model they are looking at, which apparently is the GFS, so I don't put any extra stock into the weather channel.

My reliable source had predicted closer to what the local news stations are reporting and thinks the GFS is incorrect. But still, fingers crossed I stay above 10F.

[necturus]

I just dug up most of my Schafer hybrids, potted them and put them in the garage. Man, the BxPTVT are beasts. So many roots I had to sever. I hope they and my JXS survive. Not willing to leave them to Mother Nature.

[NorCalKing]

Hopefully the Euro is dialing this in better, because the GFS just came out in the last 15 min with the 18z run and it goes yet colder again, but a slight moderation right at the Gulf Coast.That HAS to be off, no????

Edited February 12, 2021 by NorCalKing

[Meangreen94z]

33 minutes ago, amh said:

My reliable source had predicted closer to what the local news stations are reporting and thinks the GFS is incorrect. But still, fingers crossed I stay above 10F.

Trust me I hope it’s as mild as possible. But after the January 2018 freeze in Houston, I’ve learned to assume worst case scenario. It went from a forecast of 25*F two days before, to 23*F the day of and steadily dropped throughout the day. I ended up seeing 18-19*F and was caught completely off guard. Those 7*F made a massive difference with rain, ice, and snow thrown on top.  I worked until 1-2am trying to protect, but the damage was done. Obviously this situation is even worse. I’ll celebrate with you after the fact.

[Allen]

7 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

Trust me I hope it’s as mild as possible. But after the January 2018 freeze in Houston, I’ve learned to assume worst case scenario. It went from a forecast of 25*F two days before, to 23*F the day of and steadily dropped throughout the day. I ended up seeing 18-19*F and was caught completely off guard. Those 7*F made a massive difference with rain, ice, and snow thrown on top.  I worked until 1-2am trying to protect, but the damage was done. Obviously this situation is even worse. I’ll celebrate with you after the fact.

Our forecast in TN was plain stupid that day in 2018.  The forecast low at 6PM the night of was 8F.  And at 8PM I looked at the temp and it was 8, then 7, 6, 5 etc till we hit 0F.  But the weather forecast always said the low was the current temperature!!  LOL  But the last 2 years these models have had us in TN hitting freakish record low temps that never materialize so I am shy of the models as well.  And I just went outside and wrapped up a couple of my Trachy due to this ice mess and continued uncertainty like you are saying.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[amh]

6 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

Trust me I hope it’s as mild as possible. But after the January 2018 freeze in Houston, I’ve learned to assume worst case scenario. It went from a forecast of 25*F two days before, to 23*F the day of and steadily dropped throughout the day. I ended up seeing 18-19*F and was caught completely off guard. Those 7*F made a massive difference with rain, ice, and snow thrown on top.  I worked until 1-2am trying to protect, but the damage was done. Obviously this situation is even worse. I’ll celebrate with you after the fact.

I'm prepared for the worst, but I'm accustomed to 10F lower than forecasted.

[romeyjdogg]

10 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

Trust me I hope it’s as mild as possible. But after the January 2018 freeze in Houston, I’ve learned to assume worst case scenario. It went from a forecast of 25*F two days before, to 23*F the day of and steadily dropped throughout the day. I ended up seeing 18-19*F and was caught completely off guard. Those 7*F made a massive difference with rain, ice, and snow thrown on top.  I worked until 1-2am trying to protect, but the damage was done. Obviously this situation is even worse. I’ll celebrate with you after the fact.

We were in Houston during that freeze event and had a 10 foot Phoenix Sylvestris that kicked the bucket. I had Christmas lights on it and burlap, but apparently the snow and ice was too much.

[GregVirginia7]

On 2/9/2021 at 6:24 PM, NBTX11 said:

Considering we are technically a 8b/9a climate, we were due for a 20 degree night, which we haven't seen since 2011, I believe.  If memory serves me correct, 16 and 19 are the coldest temps I have seen since the early 2000's when I got here, and those were in back to back winters of 2010 and 11.  I lost a fairly decent size queen palm to the 16 degrees.  Saw quite a few survivors though around.  W. Robusta browned out some but recovered fast. 

In your zone, with an occurrence like this, for a Queen....if you wrapped the trunk And crown with small, incandescent Christmas lights and insulated with burlap or frost cloth and the fronds fried, would it come back once things moderate having heated and insulated the trunk and crown or is it of a zone that can’t recover once it it defoliated from the cold?

[NBTX11]

4 minutes ago, GregVirginia7 said:

In your zone, with an occurrence like this, for a Queen....if you wrapped the trunk And crown with small, incandescent Christmas lights and insulated with burlap or frost cloth and the fronds fried, would it come back once things moderate having heated and insulated the trunk and crown or is it of a zone that can’t recover once it it defoliated from the cold?

No, it can definitely come back.  I don't really remember what I did to protect it, that was like 10 years ago, but I know I did not take extensive measures to protect it.  I have seen queen palms come back from the dead and take well below 20 and recover.  I've seen them recover from 15 or 16 actually.  

[NBTX11]

14 minutes ago, romeyjdogg said:

We were in Houston during that freeze event and had a 10 foot Phoenix Sylvestris that kicked the bucket. I had Christmas lights on it and burlap, but apparently the snow and ice was too much.

I am very surprised P. Sylvestris can't take colder than 19.  I thought they were a lot hardier than that.

[Collectorpalms]

So far the GFS has not been cold enough. 

Expect a complete and utter carnage north of a line of San Marcos to Navasota.

It’s been below freezing since yesterday, it may go 7 days below freezing here. Not predicted by any model cold enough yet. Texas is big, what sets a record in one part of state does not mean it will be in another, but the pattern has evolved and I don’t see any positive outliers to change this.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Allen]

Got a larger prize palm that is certain to get whacked? For you Macgyvers out there that want to try to protect a larger palm where you can't quite reach the crown get a pole like a 16' pool pole, telescoping paint pole or 10' 2x1 lumber piece from Lowes/HD then duct tape a outdoor socket like this from Lowe's on the end aimed down and put a 75-150w incandescent bulb in there.  Hoist it up so it's aimed at spear about 1 foot away and secure to trunk or on ground.  Wrap trunk with blankets.  Turn on as needed.  Goal is to keep heart alive.  

https://www.lowes.com/pd/BELL-150-Watt-Black-Line-Voltage-Plug-in-Incandescent-Spot-Light/1000404851

[GregVirginia7]

2 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

No, it can definitely come back.  I don't really remember what I did to protect it, that was like 10 years ago, but I know I did not take extensive measures to protect it.  I have seen queen palms come back from the dead and take well below 20 and recover.  I've seen them recover from 15 or 16 actually.  

That’s good. Being in zone 7a/b, we’re so limited as to the palms we can choose...thinking we can bend the zone, microclimate or not, becomes a losing proposition over time...of course, depending on one’s desires to protect...but being in a zone that suffers killer cold rarely, the choices for different palms are abundant, rewarding and much longer term. However, even with limited choices for limited protection goals, it’s an enjoyable gardening hobby...

[NBTX11]

25 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

So far the GFS has not been cold enough. 

Expect a complete and utter carnage north of a line of San Marcos to Navasota.

Carnage of what?  Depends on what they planted.  Sabal Palmettos, Sabal Mexicana's, Washingtonia Filifera, and Chamaerops Humilis will not be killed in San Marcos.  

Fronds will be damaged but they will not be killed.  Watch.  The Robusta killing line is slinking further down than I expected, but I expect them to be mostly OK in San Antonio.  There are some old, tall Robusta in Central and South San Antonio that survived the 83 and 89 freezes.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[Allen]

8 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Carnage of what?  Depends on what they planted.  Sabal Palmettos, Sabal Mexicana's, Washingtonia Filifera, and Chamaerops Humilis will not be killed in San Marcos.  

Fronds will be damaged but they will not be killed.  Watch.  The Robusta killing line is slinking further down than I expected, but I expect them to be mostly OK in San Antonio.

I see on weather.com a 10 one night and a 2 another for San Marcos.  The 2018 freeze killed many Carolina Sabal Palmetto at 5-8F so I don't think the others will fare well either.  It all depends exactly what happens temp wise and duration.  Weather.com shows New Braunfels, TX with 30+ below freezing hours and a 12F and 5F low.  That will hit almost anything hard IMHO

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[NBTX11]

2 minutes ago, Allen said:

I see on weather.com a 10 one night and a 2 another for San Marcos.  The 2018 freeze killed many Carolina Sabal Palmetto at 5-8F so I don't think the others will fare well either.  It all depends exactly what happens temp wise and duration.  

Well, I guess it depends on which model and forecast you want to believe then.  If it does actually get to 2 degrees, then yes, you could see death in some of those palms.  I personally am not buying the 2 degrees yet.  I could be wrong.   Weather.com is running a colder forecast than the local forecasters.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[Collectorpalms]

12 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Carnage of what?  Depends on what they planted.  Sabal Palmettos, Sabal Mexicana's, Washingtonia Filifera, and Chamaerops Humilis will not be killed in San Marcos.  

Fronds will be damaged but they will not be killed.  Watch.  The Robusta killing line is slinking further down than I expected, but I expect them to be mostly OK in San Antonio.

Trust me, I am biased and want to be wrong.
But again ***UTTER CARNAGE*** if your out there!!!

Edited February 12, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Allen]

1 minute ago, NBTX11 said:

  I personally am not buying the 2 degrees yet.  I could be wrong.   Weather.com is running a colder forecast than the local forecasters.

Yea 2F would be really odd but it's getting closer to real temps.  I guess we'll know much closer Sunday.  I don't trust the forecast either.  it's hope for the best prepare for worst kind of event

[NBTX11]

Then I guess I better be prepared to lose my lovely 40 foot Robusta palm.  I am going to let it ride and see what happens, I am not doing a thing to it.

[Allen]

1 minute ago, NBTX11 said:

Then I guess I better be prepared to lose my lovely 40 foot Robusta palm.  I am going to let it ride and see what happens, I am not doing a thing to it.

That one is too big to protect unless you have a cherry picker.  Hope the cold misses you!

[NBTX11]

This will be an interesting test case to see what survives and what temperature they tolerated.  We will build some good long tern data from this freeze.

[amh]

Good time to be a plumber, you could retire by March.

[PalmatierMeg]

1 minute ago, amh said:

Good time to be a plumber, you could retire by March.

Or a water damage restoration specialist. We did that for years in VA.

[Collectorpalms]

This is real folks!

[RJ]

 

What is concerning is so far is the models have been busting warm so far. Dallas was modeled to be in the upper 30's currently, when in fact it's in the upper 20's. 

[Collectorpalms]

Repeat: This is the real deal! The overdue 80s style event for north and central Texas. The one I feared but expected has arrived. 

[NorCalKing]

3 minutes ago, RJ said:

 

What is concerning is so far is the models have been busting warm so far. Dallas was modeled to be in the upper 30's currently, when in fact it's in the upper 20's. 

Insane. Weather dot com now has Dallas forecasted for -1°. Wow!

[Dartolution]

Geeze... I hope you guys make it. 

Thankfully we are just to the east of this. I have been watching it for the last week, and so far it looks like Mondays low for us is in the mid 20's. 

 

[Turtlesteve]

Well, just saw all this today.  My condolences in advance to all the Texas zone pushers. We look pretty safe here in the Carolinas, for now.

[Palm Man]

There are some that say we are entering into a new Grand Solar Minimum, a period of few sunspots and resulting colder temperatures. Could this cold spell be evidence of this.....?

[amh]

25 minutes ago, Palm Man said:

There are some that say we are entering into a new Grand Solar Minimum, a period of few sunspots and resulting colder temperatures. Could this cold spell be evidence of this.....?

A singular event wouldn't really mean anything, but check back in 10 years.

[necturus]

Curious what you guys think. I have a few mules in the 7-8 foot range. One is just starting to trunk. 

Would you leave them be or dig them up and move them to the garage? I'm in Houston on the southwest side. My garage is unheated, and it looks like I won't be able to get a propane heater in time.