Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989

[Collectorpalms]

3 hours ago, amh said:

I have a question, how many meteorologist and weathermen do we have on this forum?

Well, the old “weatherman” across the street said that “palms don’t grow here”. An equally really annoying realtor said “palms belong at the beach. “ Neither were meteorologist. Both have been wrong for 20+ years. But statistically they will be right eventually.

This Thread  “NWS in DFW says coldest arctic outbreak since 1989, possible. “ .... still applies for many cold hardy palm growers in Texas. 

As a funny aside joke, the man across the street has two or three palmettos growing in his yard now from birds from my yard. I haven’t spoken to him since. But it is kinda hilarious. I bet that realtor made a profit off houses with palms, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has palms in his yard now too.
 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Meangreen94z]

53 minutes ago, Swolte said:

This is the euro model now for College Station (well, my location on the outskirts). Pretty nightmarish. Have never seen it this low. This morning the low was at 10 degrees and now it moved to 6... Few more days to go so I hope it moderates.

Similar to Leander, just NW of Austin. Luckily everything that can’t survive 6*F is in a container or easily pulled from the ground. I’ve already put a lot  of plants up in the garage and in the house

[SailorBold]

37 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Well, the old “weatherman” across the street said that “palms don’t grow here”. An equally really annoying realtor said “palms belong at the beach. “ Neither were meteorologist. Both have been wrong for 20+ years. But statistically they will be right eventually.

This Thread  “NWS in DFW says coldest arctic outbreak since 1989, possible. “ .... still applies for many cold hardy palm growers in Texas. 

As a funny aside joke, the man across the street has two or three palmettos growing in his yard now from birds from my yard. I haven’t spoken to him since. But it is kinda hilarious. I bet that realtor made a profit off houses with palms, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has palms in his yard now too.
 

 

Thats funny.. yeah sounds about right.. those "famous" Truth or Consequences Filifera have spread around TorC as well... all from birds..I spoke to the longtime yardsman at the resort and he said for whatever reason they all follow one direction.. and its a to b sight of the Rio grande river.  Its good to see them naturalizing tho.. 

[NBTX11]

Why aren't these temps moderating more.  Every time I check forecasts, they go down.  Why can't they go up, instead of down.

[NBTX11]

Tue at 6 am.  I am starting to believe this may be very bad.  

[NBTX11]

[NBTX11]

[NBTX11]

[NBTX11]

[NBTX11]

[NBTX11]

[NorCalKing]

These temps will burn many tropicals including bougainvillea, bird of paradise and others to the ground. Dallas is looking grim 4F would be freezing for many parts of central Canada. Wow! 

Edited February 12, 2021 by NorCalKing

[NBTX11]

12 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

These temps will burn many tropicals including bougainvillea, bird of paradise and others to the ground. Dallas is looking grim 4F would be freezing for many parts of central Canada. Wow! 

This is not a yearly occurrence or even a once a decade occurrence.  If these numbers hold up, it will be over 30 years since it got this cold.  This is madness.  

[Chester B]

I’m seeing 1F as an overnight low for Texas on a couple apps. This is nuts. 

[Collectorpalms]

This started evolving on Monday. The NWS in Dallas has finally put out the first major warning on Thursday, many records to fall. 
 

Johnson-Ellis-Comanche- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, and De Leon 822 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... *

WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Bitterly cold temperatures expected. Near blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of North and East Texas.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. *

IMPACTS...Travel will become nearly impossible and could become life threatening. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precautions should be taken now to secure pipes and anything susceptible to the extreme cold. Have plenty of food and ways to stay warm in case of power outages.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Meangreen94z]

8 hours ago, Chester B said:

I’m seeing 1F as an overnight low for Texas on a couple apps. This is nuts. 

I expect the forecast to continue to drop and the model Collectorspalms posted a few days ago to be pretty much accurate. Atleast for Central and North Texas. He looked like a madman at the time , but now will definitely be the go to guy for Texas forecasts.

Luckily I halfway believed the model and started putting stuff up days ago. Everything still outside is covered in ice and will be a mess to bring in. 

[Swolte]

My weekend: protecting the zone 6/7 hardy plants in fricking central Texas...

[boaterboat]

I ordered strip heaters to at least try to protect the heart of my Livistona Chinensis, but the ice is already snapping fronds, and it looks like it will drop another 20 degrees Sunday and Monday. 
 

I am going to do all I can to protect them, but already planning what to replace them with. I have Pindos I’m not sure will make it. Will Texas Sabals even make it through this?

[Allen]

4 minutes ago, boaterboat said:

I ordered strip heaters to at least try to protect the heart of my Livistona Chinensis, but the ice is already snapping fronds, and it looks like it will drop another 20 degrees Sunday and Monday. 
 

I am going to do all I can to protect them, but already planning what to replace them with. I have Pindos I’m not sure will make it. Will Texas Sabals even make it through this?

 

 

They may survive the ice if the temps moderate.  The absolute lows is what will kill.  All you people in TX need to get on Amazon and order Copper fungicide for after this when temps warm up in a few weeks on a dry day I'd spray all growth points.   Try to get some heat on those hearts!

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[NorCalKing]

11 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

This is not a yearly occurrence or even a once a decade occurrence.  If these numbers hold up, it will be over 30 years since it got this cold.  This is madness.  

Yeah I know. My work head office is in the DFW area. I'm literally awestruck at the insanity of this.*

*If this verifies.

[NorCalKing]

Unbelievably this event is coming in even COLDER in the latest 12z. We are now <100 hrs, and model accuracy normally starts to really tighten. It's one thing to spit out an insane forecast in the 240hr runs, they are what would be termed "fantasyland". But man, I can't believe this hasn't moderated yet.

[NBTX11]

1 hour ago, boaterboat said:

Will Texas Sabals even make it through this?

Yes.  Notice all the Texas Sabals all over Austin that survived the 1989 and 1983 freezes.

[Meangreen94z]

7 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Unbelievably this event is coming in even COLDER in the latest 12z. We are now <100 hrs, and model accuracy normally starts to really tighten. It's one thing to spit out an insane forecast in the 240hr runs, they are what would be termed "fantasyland". But man, I can't believe this hasn't moderated yet.

I just hope it’s another 32 years, and not like the 1980’s where there were several brutal winters within a few years

[NBTX11]

1 hour ago, Allen said:

They may survive the ice if the temps moderate.  The absolute lows is what will kill.  All you people in TX need to get on Amazon and order Copper fungicide for after this when temps warm up in a few weeks on a dry day I'd spray all growth points.   Try to get some heat on those hearts!

You can't spray 30 to 40 foot tall palm trees.  Either they live or they don't.

[NorCalKing]

1 minute ago, Meangreen94z said:

I just hope it’s another 32 years, and not like the 1980’s where there were several brutal winters

For sure. This such an outlier I can't even imagine the statistical deviation this event is*

*If it verifies.

[Allen]

10 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

You can't spray 30 to 40 foot tall palm trees.  Either they live or they don't.

https://www.amazon.com/Hudson-Trombone-Shrub-Sprayer-61224/dp/B000UEENTU

https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/mg/mg31800.pdf

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[NBTX11]

1 minute ago, Allen said:

https://www.amazon.com/Hudson-Trombone-Shrub-Sprayer-61224/dp/B000UEENTU

 

How am I supposed to protect this palm tree.  I had to hire a guy with a 30 foot ladder completely extended out to trim off fronds last time I had it trimmed.

[Allen]

10 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

How am I supposed to protect this palm tree.  I had to hire a guy with a 30 foot ladder completely extended out to trim off fronds last time I had it trimmed.

Protect from cold, difficult, but to spray fungicide get a ladder on the roof gutter and use the sprayer I mentioned above to spray crown with fungicide after this event is over in a few weeks or use a pin nozzle on a regular sprayer.  Only do it if you feel safe doing that of course.  It's up to you whether the palm is worth trying it.  It looks like your area that palm may survive.  I see a low of 10F.  

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[NBTX11]

2 minutes ago, Allen said:

Protect, difficult, but to spray fungicide get a ladder on the roof gutter and use the sprayer I mentioned above to spray with fungicide after this event is over in a few weeks or use a pin nozzle on a regular sprayed.  Only do it if you feel safe doing that of course.  

The roof line is 20 feet off the ground.  I would be taking my life at risk.  This palm is even taller than it appears in this photo.  It is literally a 40 foot plus palm.  There is no way to spray anything in it.  If it dies, it dies.

[NBTX11]

The NWS is forecasting "only" 15 for San Antonio.  Most of the local guys are forecasting about 16.  What are they seeing that these models are not.  I hope they are right, I don't want to see 8 degrees. 

[Collectorpalms]

24 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

I just hope it’s another 32 years, and not like the 1980’s where there were several brutal winters within a few years

 Zone8b Texas- that sweet spot where you can grow a lot of palms, statistically has a "Robusta kill" on average once every 20 years. This last stretch was the greatest run since records began. This is shaping up to be 1983 ( long cold) and 1989 ( fast colder) combined for me, a double busta.

[NBTX11]

The Euro model moderated a few degrees.  Saying around 15 for San Antonio.  Was saying around 10-13 or so.

[NBTX11]

15-17 for Central Houston.

[NorCalKing]

7 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

The Euro model moderated a few degrees.  Saying around 15 for San Antonio. 

That's a good sign. The GFS does have a bit more of a cold bias. 

[NBTX11]

5 for Dallas.

[NBTX11]

Just watched 3 of the local guys weather forecasts for SA.  One said 14, another said 15, and another said 16 for Monday night.  The issue is that it's long lasting, with temps dropping below freezing Sunday evening and not getting above freezing until sometime Tuesday.  That is a long stretch for us.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NBTX11

[AnTonY]

Do models factor in "snowpack" to temperature determinations? If so, that could actually cause a cold bias.

[NBTX11]

Record lows for San Antonio.

Feb 14th - 20F in 1905

Feb 15th - 21F in 1901

Feb 16th - 16F in 1895

120 year old daily records are going down next week.

[Allen]

35 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Record lows for San Antonio.

Feb 14th - 20F in 1905

Feb 15th - 21F in 1901

Feb 16th - 16F in 1895

120 year old daily records are going down next week.

The GFS model better REALLY be sure of itself to break records lasting this long or if it turns out to be wrong it needs to be completely reworked.  It doesn't make common sense to me.  Good luck.  My TN lows for next week have varied from 7F to 20F on a almost daily basis.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Allen

[amh]

1 hour ago, NBTX11 said:

Just watched 3 of the local guys weather forecasts for SA.  One said 14, another said 15, and another said 16 for Monday night.  The issue is that it's long lasting, with temps dropping below freezing Sunday evening and not getting above freezing until sometime Tuesday.  That is a long stretch for us.

I'll take 14 over this forecast.