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Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989


Collectorpalms
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1 minute ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Industrial. Hidden behind little flap doors. I guess we just let them dribble and throw some old sheets and towels down or something. The Styrofoam home depot covers won't fit. 

Is there a key on the side or anything like that?

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6 minutes ago, amh said:

Hey now, you dont want to repair your ceiling every time the drain clogs?

After Harvey, for months I had a recurring nightmare about the AC falling through the ceiling and crushing me and my dog every time it rained. More concern for the dog than myself. 

 

Just now, amh said:

Is there a key on the side or anything like that?

Yes. 

 

And they're all stripped out lol. 

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1 minute ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Yes. 

 

And they're all stripped out lol. 

Not good, the freeze resistant faucets usually have a way to shut the water off internally, but since they're stripped.....

 

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Pack them with some fresh out of the dryer rags?

 

I guess I'm having a pow wow with my maintenance guy tomorrow. 

Edited by JohnAndSancho
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2 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Pack them with some fresh out of the dryer rags?

 

I guess I'm having a pow wow with my maintenance guy tomorrow. 

Don't know what to tell you, but he may have a good understanding of the plumbing; hopefully.

Don't panic, but be prepared.

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That's all I can do. I've turned this place into a money maker 2 months in, I'd hate to see all of that profit go up in smoke over a plumbing disaster. 

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I've lived in the south my whole life, dealt more with hurricanes than cold - but we could always tell how severe a hurricane was going to be by watching to see if Waffle House was closing. 

 

If Waffle House closes, it's bad. I'm gonna call and see if they plan to close next week lol. 

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1 minute ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

This will be a devastating event unless something miraculously changes asap.

Good vibes for you. I've got a few plants in my shopping cart on your website. 

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1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Industrial. Hidden behind little flap doors. I guess we just let them dribble and throw some old sheets and towels down or something. The Styrofoam home depot covers won't fit. 

Tried the faucet socks? These are like bags. Should fit?

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1 minute ago, Swolte said:

Tried the faucet socks? These are like bags. Should fit?

I see a trip to Home Depot in my future. I've literally never had to think about this stuff, let alone for work. 

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8 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

This will be a devastating event unless something miraculously changes asap.

I am counting on your business to replace a lot of the hard-to-find losses, good sir! Hope they are well protected!!!

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1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Industrial. Hidden behind little flap doors. I guess we just let them dribble and throw some old sheets and towels down or something. The Styrofoam home depot covers won't fit. 

Just let them run.  Better to waste a few dollars in water costs than have a line freeze.  It's not going to freeze (or shouldn't) if water is constantly moving.  Think about it, rivers freeze a lot slower than a pond with standing water.

Edited by NBTX11
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4 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Just let them run.  Better to waste a few dollars in water costs than have a line freeze.

Still, fingers crossed that our crappy landscaping plants die. All of them. 

 

It's early enough that we can salt the sidewalks, I guess. But they're 99.99999% likely gonna be buried under snow and ice regardless of what I do with the faucets. 

 

We have pool salt because at one point the owners wanted to convert our pool to saltwater. Would that work as a de-icer? 

Edited by JohnAndSancho
Edit. Then edited some more. Then edited again.
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2 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Still, fingers crossed that our crappy landscaping plants die. All of them. 

Hate to tell you, but knock out roses are hardy to zone 5.

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3 minutes ago, amh said:

Hate to tell you, but knock out roses are hardy to zone 5.

Fingers still crossed. 

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Looking a bit better for the RGV, especially Cameron county. Brownsville right on the 35 degree line and South Padre just shy of 40 degrees. Long live the Texas coconuts! :P

gfs_T2m_contour_scus_23.png

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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@Xenon

Yes, the latest GFS is (slowly starting to) back off w/ regards to the southern extent of the crazy cold. Now showing mid teens for the Houston and San Antonio areas, rather than the single digits of before. 

That's because the culprit upper-level disturbances come in much flimsier. And as that continues, things might moderate. (knock on wood).

Edited by AnTonY
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Here's hoping something changes. Here in Fort Worth, it's already miserable. I have 2 large Sabal Palmettos and a Jubaea x Butia hybrid in the ground. I'm not sure if any level of protection is going to save them if lows dip down to single digits. 

Burlap, bubble insulation, and pipe heating cables are going on them tomorrow, but who knows how much that will help :badday:

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12 minutes ago, romeyjdogg said:

Here's hoping something changes. Here in Fort Worth, it's already miserable. I have 2 large Sabal Palmettos and a Jubaea x Butia hybrid in the ground. I'm not sure if any level of protection is going to save them if lows dip down to single digits. 

Burlap, bubble insulation, and pipe heating cables are going on them tomorrow, but who knows how much that will help :badday:

Those are pretty hardy, you MIGHT be ok.  The more you can do to protect them, the better, however they may be able to take single digits and recover.

If the earlier GFS model was to be believed and North Texas was due to drop below 0, palms would have been toast.

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18 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Those are pretty hardy, you MIGHT be ok.  The more you can do to protect them, the better, however they may be able to take single digits and recover.

If the earlier GFS model was to be believed and North Texas was due to drop below 0, palms would have been toast.

Precisely. This latest 00z moderates things a good bit. Way more improvement is needed, but it's still better than the total carnage the GFS was showing earlier.

We need westerly flow aloft, and on the surface to blunt the impact of this event. This latest run shows more of that.

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6 hours ago, Xenon said:

Looking a bit better for the RGV, especially Cameron county. Brownsville right on the 35 degree line and South Padre just shy of 40 degrees. Long live the Texas coconuts! :P

gfs_T2m_contour_scus_23.png

Yeah but baaaddd for Houston, ~10F, that's gonna take out every zone 10 planting, no matter the microclimate and virtually all zone 9 stuff, to the roots.

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20 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Yeah but baaaddd for Houston, ~10F, that's gonna take out every zone 10 planting, no matter the microclimate and virtually all zone 9 stuff, to the roots.

Yeah, tongue-in-cheek. Still in utter belief...this will be a landscape changing (to put it lightly) freeze and colder than anything I've ever experienced (I'm 23).  

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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To all the palm people in Texas, now is the time to photograph/document 30 years of growth. For the sake of posterity 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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Check out the last two runs of the Canadian Model. Genuinely close to what GFS has been spitting out for a few days.

56d493d1-9036-46c9-bc16-316f1e252e93.gif

Edited by Collectorpalms

30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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11 hours ago, amh said:

Exactly, I wish builders wouldn't attach faucets to the houses without a shutoff.

Up north we use hose bibs with the shutoff valve recessed behind the insulation of the home. You can get them in various lengths from 4 inches to 12 inches or so. This way the water is never exposed to the elements and able to freeze. No need to put a cover over the hose bib. 

 

11 hours ago, Keys6505 said:

....Or water heaters in attics, or hose bibs without shutoffs, or cpvc water lines, or......

You will rarely ever see AC units or water heaters in attics. The rare occasions when it is done a basin is used around the units that looks something like a shower basin with a large 2" line for the drain not the little 1/2 inch line that I see used in the SE. The entire process of putting any utilities in an attic is pretty uncommon though. When it is done it's done with a conditioned attic, meaning the the attic isn't vented to the outside air and is more or less the same temperature as the rest of the home.  Most northern houses have basements and that is where all the mechanicals are kept. On the rare occasion that a basement isn't utilized a maintenance closet is usually framed in the garage. (This is pretty common in the PNW as well). 

I see new houses around me being built with instant hot water heaters hung off the side of the house. Many of these units had to be replaced in our cold snap in 2018.  If you have a instant water heater on the outside of your house it could be in trouble during this cold snap.  The heat exchanger usually cracks. 

 

Track builders just don't care enough to build a home the way the should be done, and code inspectors are often too lenient in this regard. 

everbilt-sillcocks-vffaspg19eb-64_1000.jpg

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Does anyone know of this will be a stormy, windy event?  The weather channel doesn't tell me much.  I'm heading out to buy my emergency protection supplies today and would like to know if I need to go crazy anchoring tarps.  

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2 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

Check out the last two runs of the Canadian Model. Genuinely close to what GFS has been spitting out for a few days.

56d493d1-9036-46c9-bc16-316f1e252e93.gif

Atleast it shows Houston going south is mid to high teens now

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Here is the GFS and the Euro, which is warmer than the GFS and cooler then the UKMET. We are getting to the 5 day out period, these models should start to have some consensus. Probably somewhere in between the  Euro and the GFS. A blend of both at this point is prudent. Compliments of Ryan Maue

 

 

Texas GFS 21121.png

Texas 21121.png

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-1.6 C low at my place on Vancouver Island, nowhere near the original forecasted low of -8 C. Hopefully it’s a dud for you Texas folks as it appears to be shaping up as a dud up here in the PNW. 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C (so far!)

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2 hours ago, RJ said:

Most northern houses have basements and that is where all the mechanicals are kept. On the rare occasion that a basement isn't utilized a maintenance closet is usually framed in the garage. (This is pretty common in the PNW as well). 

True and true.  Now that I live in the PNW, I am one of those rare people that actually have a basement and the furnace and water heater are still in the garage.  House was built in 1993.  No shutoffs for the outside water though, whereas in Canada it is standard and most likely a building regulation.

Good luck to all you Texans.

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1 hour ago, ShadyDan said:

-1.6 C low at my place on Vancouver Island, nowhere near the original forecasted low of -8 C. Hopefully it’s a dud for you Texas folks as it appears to be shaping up as a dud up here in the PNW. 

It backed off here as well.  Lowest temp projected is 27 or about -3C.  Below freezing expected to last about 36 hours, but we're going to get hammered with snow starting tonight.

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37 minutes ago, Chester B said:

It backed off here as well.  Lowest temp projected is 27 or about -3C.  Below freezing expected to last about 36 hours, but we're going to get hammered with snow starting tonight.

Yea looks like Seattle and area will be hit the hardest with snow, I some pretty heavy accusations all around Puget Sound.  We are supposed to get some up here, but not as much as locations further south. One more day of below freezing temps on Friday (-4C the low, but I bet I won’t hit that) then the warmup is coming Saturday along with the snow. 

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -9.4C (so far!)

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17 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

So the GFS moderated.  Wonder why.

Yep, @Collectorpalms is correct. The "hurricane" AKA the upper-air disturbance that is responsible for this mess hasn't even formed yet! It's still out on a gyre off the Aleutian Islands, and the forecast is basically contingent on that thing somehow breaking loose, and carving out an upper-level low out west. Imagine that thing doesn't break loose, it ends up destroying the entire forecast (and for the better!).

Anyways, with the recent GFS runs, the carved trough responsible for Monday's event has been flimsier, more progressive, as well as farther north and/or west in general, as well as with the tilt change. That weakens the upper-level cold advection, as well as resulting wintry precip (less heavy snowpack laid out to alter the surface, more sleet/icing instead) with winds remaining more due west at 500mb and even 850mb. With winds more westerly, that could lead to more high cloud cover than predicted on models, to help mitigate the freeze even more than what is shown. Crank the surface westerlies even more, and we'll really be in business w/ moderation, due to downsloping off the Mexican mountains.

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17 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

Yep, @Collectorpalms is correct. The "hurricane" AKA the upper-air disturbance that is responsible for this mess hasn't even formed yet! It's still out on a gyre off the Aleutian Islands, and the forecast is basically contingent on that thing somehow breaking loose, and carving out an upper-level low out west. Imagine that thing doesn't break loose, it ends up destroying the entire forecast (and for the better!).

Anyways, with the recent GFS runs, the carved trough responsible for Monday's event has been flimsier, more progressive, as well as farther north and/or west in general, as well as with the tilt change. That weakens the upper-level cold advection, as well as resulting wintry precip (less heavy snowpack laid out to alter the surface, more sleet/icing instead) with winds remaining more due west at 500mb and even 850mb. With winds more westerly, that could lead to more high cloud cover than predicted on models, to help mitigate the freeze even more than what is shown. Crank the surface westerlies even more, and we'll really be in business w/ moderation, due to downsloping off the Mexican mountains.

I'll say again the GFS has turned out to be BS many times for us in TN when it comes to extreme lows.  I follow this and go thru this every winter and there is always panic from this model.  Most of the time it turns out to be primarily wrong.  I have 32 palms in zone 7A so I pay attention to the weather really close here and it's amazing how wrong this usually is.  Hopefully it's just a bunch of nonsense for TX too as I feel for you palm guys/gals.  My gut thinks you will likely see zone lows or maybe a little below but that's just me thinking.

Edited by Allen
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YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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3 hours ago, RJ said:

Up north we use hose bibs with the shutoff valve recessed behind the insulation of the home. You can get them in various lengths from 4 inches to 12 inches or so. This way the water is never exposed to the elements and able to freeze. No need to put a cover over the hose bib. 

 

You will rarely ever see AC units or water heaters in attics. The rare occasions when it is done a basin is used around the units that looks something like a shower basin with a large 2" line for the drain not the little 1/2 inch line that I see used in the SE. The entire process of putting any utilities in an attic is pretty uncommon though. When it is done it's done with a conditioned attic, meaning the the attic isn't vented to the outside air and is more or less the same temperature as the rest of the home.  Most northern houses have basements and that is where all the mechanicals are kept. On the rare occasion that a basement isn't utilized a maintenance closet is usually framed in the garage. (This is pretty common in the PNW as well). 

I see new houses around me being built with instant hot water heaters hung off the side of the house. Many of these units had to be replaced in our cold snap in 2018.  If you have a instant water heater on the outside of your house it could be in trouble during this cold snap.  The heat exchanger usually cracks. 

 

Track builders just don't care enough to build a home the way the should be done, and code inspectors are often too lenient in this regard. 

everbilt-sillcocks-vffaspg19eb-64_1000.jpg

The new homes and southern houses generally have thinner walls, and a combination of carelessness, greed, and incompetence on behalf of the contractors really screw things up. I'm in an older house built by a competent builder, but I still have those stupid home grade faucets on my house.

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3 hours ago, Keys6505 said:

Does anyone know of this will be a stormy, windy event?  The weather channel doesn't tell me much.  I'm heading out to buy my emergency protection supplies today and would like to know if I need to go crazy anchoring tarps.  

Haven't seen any predictions above 20 mph in my area, but there should be wind the whole time.

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2 hours ago, Allen said:

I'll say again the GFS has turned out to be BS many times for us in TN when it comes to extreme lows.  I follow this and go thru this every winter and there is always panic from this model.  Most of the time it turns out to be primarily wrong.  I have 32 palms in zone 7A so I pay attention to the weather really close here and it's amazing how wrong this usually is.  Hopefully it's just a bunch of nonsense for TX too as I feel for you palm guys/gals.  My gut thinks you will likely see zone lows or maybe a little below but that's just me thinking.

More, or less, I agree as well. It's like tracking tropical cyclones, every little tick makes all the difference.

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This is the euro model now for College Station (well, my location on the outskirts). Pretty nightmarish. Have never seen it this low. This morning the low was at 10 degrees and now it moved to 6... Few more days to go so I hope it moderates.

Weather 3.PNG

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