Xenon Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 55 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said: the surface high is over MO, so deep deep south texas gets a ENE wind by the 14th and probably clouds cool precip. I am obviously focused over northern gulf coast which doesnt help us. Yeah it's not looking so good for Houston, though the forecast still has us hovering around 30F. With such a long duration cold event, heat island might not help so much. I'm mostly worried about zone 10 pushes, foxtails have been popping up recently. I'm also a bit bummed my volunteer jackfruit might not survive its 3rd winter 1 Jonathan Katy, TX (Zone 9a) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 @Collectorpalms @Xenon For less impacts towards Texas from this event, you want the TPV to set up farther east - say, that Eastern Great Lakes region around Ontario/Quebec. I remember it being discussed a while back by Joe Bastardi, northeasterly wind directions provide protection to Houston/East Texas region because it puts the area under the downslope shadow of the Ozark/Ouachitas ranges. Any overruning event then is limited to simply cloudy - partly cloudy skies, when it otherwise would have been a nasty wintry precip event. Any farther west focus and/or orientation of the TPV sets up is worse for Texas. A direct set up over, say, Montana, is the worst case scenario for absolute cold, allowing "inside sliders" to blast right down to Texas - farther west trough axises into the SW US have lesser absolute cold, but can bring nasty, overrunning weather events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBTX11 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Latest models I saw look slightly better for South and Central TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLM Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) Models have been fairly consistent with temps reaching the 18-22F range here, this will be a true test for my Queens. I hope the models start trending warmer! Edited February 7, 2021 by JLM Spelling 2 Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 2 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 2 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 3 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 2 L. chinensis, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 1 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 1 C. cataractarum, 1 S. repens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, NBTX11 said: Latest models I saw look slightly better for South and Central TX. Have you seen Dallas to Memphis, the duration of days below 32 are concerning. Its going to be right on our door step. Its a tsunami of cold air over the USA coming. Models are going 30+ degrees below normal for daytime highs 5-7 days out. Edited February 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 @Collectorpalms It's a strong tug-of-war between the Euro and GFS as of now. There were massive warm-ups on the former, the arctic air stays more bottled up farther north in the plains - the TPV split, with a piece drifting west towards the PNW, eliminating the threat of severe Arctic cold for Texas. The latter keeps the TPV intact, and will be worrisome for cold in the plains and the Southern US. We'll have to see how runs turn out the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
necturus Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I guess the question is, which model do you trust? GFS looks bad, ECMWF looks more meh. I'll leave it to you weather guys to tell me what's what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) I have always used the GFS for temperature outlooks. GFS has always been close enough to get the gist if a major cold spell is coming here whenever I see anything below 20 on GFS 7 day its very rare. They have 16 for Conroe and 13 for Huntsville and upper 10s here too. GFS wants to throw in another whammy and makes it worse for US days 7-10 now. I am not ready to be too too worried yet... But If I was in DFW this looks like a 1983 event as far as duration of days below 32. Although I do not know the exact hours, just the fact that a model is predicting an event like this is wild. Edited February 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms 1 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBTX11 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Some forecasts are not showing any freezes at all for San Antonio now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
necturus Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS runs this morning look pretty terrible, with 25 or less reaching way down into south Texas. The predicted duration of the cold is also striking. Could be worse than our last bad freeze a few years ago even if the absolute lows are higher. Euro also trending colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, necturus said: GFS runs this morning look pretty terrible, with 25 or less reaching way down into south Texas. The predicted duration of the cold is also striking. Could be worse than our last bad freeze a few years ago even if the absolute lows are higher. Euro also trending colder. Yes latest models runs are closing in on the agreement for first time. 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) Both the 06z and 12z are looking quite cold. But notice that in the 12z suddenly has more looseness/increases with regards to the shortwaves/energy coming in from the Pacific - that tugs the TPV father southwest, which delays the eastward movement, and locks the deep cold more in TX/Louisiana, unlike the previous 06z, which has a more intact TPV that swings more towards the east to spread the cold further into the SE. The events in the Pacific are crucial in how this pattern ultimately unfolds. Edited February 8, 2021 by AnTonY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 UKMet, for instance, has what seems to be a stronger TPV, with less disruption from Pacific energy coming in. The result is the TPV taking a path more towards the Great Lakes. Waiting for the EURO to see how that unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palmaceae Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 10:00 AM, Alan_Tampa said: Never predict winter till at least April. It's bad luck. GFS is going wacko again, at least I hope not true, but teens down to the southern RioGrande? Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reyes Vargas Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I doubt that it will get in the teens here in the RGV (finger crossed). It will be cold but I don't think teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just as expected, the 12z Euro is not nearly as cold for Texas, and allows more of it to spread farther east. The coming Pacific energy was suppressed enough to avoid disbalancing the TPV towards the west, allowing it to move more towards the Great Lakes region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 What Alan said... What you look for is what is looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Palmaceae said: GFS is going wacko again, at least I hope not true, but teens down to the southern RioGrande? It’s trending awful and the hours till next week are decreasing. Guess we will know in 7 days. That last map will pretty much take 20 years of my gardening down to stumps. I think I have seen enough. Models can battle it out. Edited February 8, 2021 by Collectorpalms 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenon Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS has a century+-level nuclear devastation event for Deep South Texas and Tamaulipas...over 48 consecutive hours below freezing (!). At this rate, Brownsville will literally be brown and Matamoros is going to be dead. Would push back tropical expansion by decades and severely damage/kill native tropical flora and fauna. There are boas, crocodiles, iguanas etc just a hundred or two miles south of the border that will probably go locally extinct. Massive mangrove and fish kills...goodbye Texas tarpon and snook. Will be really really ugly if the model is right Jonathan Katy, TX (Zone 9a) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I truly hope this does not play out and doubt it will... 1 What you look for is what is looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palmaceae Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just looked at the newest GFS run, not much better, actually longer duration and more artic air moving east to Florida also. The GFS has been all over the place this year so I don't put much faith in it a week out. Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I checked Brownsville, Texas Weather Underground and saw the following the forecast: 2/13-62F/37F; 2/14-49F/34F; 2/15-50F/32F; 57F/44F. While this is cold for Brownsville,South Texas and RGV, it certainly does not represent a cataclysmic event. All will be fine... 1 What you look for is what is looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabal_Louisiana Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 NWS Forecast Center page today shows for the 3-7 day run, a core of Arctic high staying well north with shallow air wedging down into Texas. No cause for alarm as of yet for Florida. It shows minimum temps around Monday as 17F around Dallas, with the 32 line down to south Texas, and east to New Orleans, but not beyond. All models show lack of advancement of really cold air into the Southeast/ Atlantic region. Sounds like they may be overplaying this cold event considering model inconsistency, time of year and persistent zonal flow (which IS supposed to change late this week) but here are snippets from NWS Office Area Forecast Discussions Tuesday morning: Houston: We are still seeing quite a spread between models with GFS being one of the coldest solutions. Latest NBM guidance also suggest a very cold weekend with MaxT in the 30s to low 40s Sunday and from the upper 20 to mid 30s Monday. Given that, have leaned towards the colder solutions for temperatures Saturday into Monday and went fairly close to the 25th percentile of climatology. (FYI, NBM is the National Blend of Models, a calibrated suite of weather models used for guidance) Brownsville: Temperatures may reach the freezing mark, and a few degrees below, during the overnight hours of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. With precipitation forecast during those times, the precipitation may be in solid form, especially as freezing rain. Corpus: Temperatures are forecast to plummet to below freezing by Sunday morning and struggle to get out of the 30s to 40s on Sunday. By Sunday night, a deeper trough is progged to swing across the state aiding in maintaining the cold temperatures. The combination of well below freezing temperatures at the surface, the arrival of better jet dynamics aloft and low level moisture from a bordering coastal trough over the waters may lead to some wintry precipitation across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) The threat of deep Arctic outbreak cold to the extent of the 1899 or the 1980s is definitely diminishing as per latest model runs. The GFS is still the coldest model by far, but even it has started to moderate at bit with regards to the winter weather temps and precip - to maybe a 2011, 2014, and 2018 type of outbreak at worst. But the 12z Euro? Virtually eliminates the threat. The way that's trending, it'd literally just be a cold rain at most for Southern Texas. Edited February 9, 2021 by AnTonY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) ... Edited February 9, 2021 by Collectorpalms 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 10:46 PM, Mr. Coconut Palm said: Hi Everyone, Anyone out there got any hunches or data showing that winter is over for South Texas and the Gulf Coast. Let me know. Thanks. John John, lol. I have some hunches, but you asked for data if winter was over for you. Well that was opening a can of worms. Your sitting pretty good right now where your at. Once we get past Feb 14, the worst for southeast Texas is usually over. 2 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collectorpalms Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) ... Edited February 9, 2021 by Collectorpalms 30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Coconut Palm Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Collectorpalms said: John, lol. I have some hunches, but you asked for data if winter was over for you. Well that was opening a can of worms. Your sitting pretty good right now where your at. Once we get past Feb 14, the worst for southeast Texas is usually over. Ryan, I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas. I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley. I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 @Mr. Coconut Palm Yes, pray for a miracle. Hope with all your soul that the solutions (and TRENDS) depicted in the EURO are correct, and that those of the GFS are wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinandega81 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said: Ryan, I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas. I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley. I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida. John I know you have some great stuff. I would hate for you to get as cold as they are forecasting as of now. I hope you have cold protection ready for you coconut and other tropicals. I am worries about this event as well as it's duration. I see even by the water at the coastal bend highs will struggle to hit 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Coconut Palm Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, chinandega81 said: I know you have some great stuff. I would hate for you to get as cold as they are forecasting as of now. I hope you have cold protection ready for you coconut and other tropicals. I am worries about this event as well as it's duration. I see even by the water at the coastal bend highs will struggle to hit 40. Thanks, Jaime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan_Tampa Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Told you guys, predicting the next periods weather is bad luck. Winter talk after it's over. Only discuss results of most recent events. No predictions! Alan 4 Tampa, Florida Zone - 10a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJPalmer Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 I have family in Frisco, so I decided to check NWS forecast for the region. Today is forecast to be the warmest in the 7-day period with highs of 34, and three straight nights to start next week below 15°. I know Sabal are pretty common in the area and can be pretty cold hardy, but this can’t be easy on them, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaPalms Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is crazy. Single digits all the way to Houston and below zero in Dallas. That will take a huge toll on palms and such there. I believe live oaks can be affected and the trunks can crack once temperatures get that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PalmatierMeg Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 hours ago, Alan_Tampa said: Told you guys, predicting the next periods weather is bad luck. Winter talk after it's over. Only discuss results of most recent events. No predictions! Alan hear, hear 1 Meg Palms of Victory I shall wear Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise) Florida Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal Elevation: 15 feetI'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenon Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 (edited) If this pans out, going to be a great year for landscape work...imagine trying to remove a million+ robusta and queens in Houston Area alone. That's how hyperbolically mortifying this event is sounding haha The beginning of the end is already arriving Edited February 10, 2021 by Xenon Jonathan Katy, TX (Zone 9a) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amh Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Xenon said: If this pans out, going to be a great year for landscape work...imagine trying to remove a million+ robusta and queens in Houston Area alone. That's how hyperbolically mortifying this event is sounding haha The beginning of the end is already arriving Masons and plumbers will be king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorCalKing Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said: Ryan, I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas. I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley. I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida. John I'm hoping things are being overblown for you guys as well. But, "upper 30'sF" is just wish casting. They may be off, but If you think you'll be in the low 40's, you may have to put down the Koolaid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenon Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, NorCalKing said: I'm hoping things are being overblown for you guys as well. But, "upper 30'sF" is just wish casting. They may be off, but If you think you'll be in the low 40's, you may have to put down the Koolaid lol Doom and gloom GFS actually has Port Isabel and South Padre Island (and SpaceX) outside of the freeze line. NWS is calling for an ultimate low of 40F and 42F vs 34F for Brownsville. In an event like this, heat island doesn't seem to be much help at all (look at Houston). You want to be as far south as possible with water directly to the north and northwest, surf temp currently at SPI is ~70F. Edited February 10, 2021 by Xenon 1 Jonathan Katy, TX (Zone 9a) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnTonY Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 @Xenon The 12z GFS 500mb patterns on 18z Sunday reveal potential hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now