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Anyone Got Any Hunches About Winter Being Over In South Texas And The Gulf Coast?


Mr. Coconut Palm
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Hi Everyone,

Anyone out there got any hunches or data showing that winter is over for South Texas and the Gulf Coast.  Let me know.    Thanks.

John

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Not here, looking at a night or two of frost/freezing temps up here this week. After that point, i doubt we will get warm and stay warm, that probably wont happen until late February, hopefully earlier!

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 2 W. bifurcata, 6 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 Butia x Jubaea, 1 Butia x Jubaea x Butia x Syagrus, 1 X Butiagrus nabonnandii, 2 L. chinensis, 1 Cocos nucifera 

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Weather looks pretty decent for the next week or so up here.  Keeping my fingers crossed for a mild February.

image.thumb.jpeg.fe855c3298e1f93c21fc71bea8373ebe.jpeg

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Unified Theory of Palm Seed Germination

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(Where: bh = bottom heat, fs = fresh seed, L = love, m = magic, p = patience, and t = time)

DISCLAIMER: Working theory; not yet peer reviewed.

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10 hours ago, bubba said:

My belief is that the RGV will be very close to Koppen Tropical this year!

Actually not that rare...8 out of the last 30 Januarys meet the 64.4F/18C isotherm.  Last January was the warmest with an average mean temp of 67.2F.

2019-2020 and 2016-2017 were both "fully tropical" winter seasons 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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12 hours ago, bubba said:

My belief is that the RGV will be very close to Koppen Tropical this year!

That would be GREAT!

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I've been running the latest weather models. Fingers crossed for you all on the week starting on Feb 7th.

Edited by AnTonY
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The latest medium to long range weather models have me a bit concerned. 

There is a consensus among the CFSv2, the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian GEM that there will be frigid air building up around Alberta over the next couple of weeks.  Impacts to the southern US remain uncertain.

That arctic air will likely pour down into the US in about a week,  possibly wedging down into Texas and spreading east as well.

The GFS is not looking kind to us between the 7th and the 12th.

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15 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

The latest medium to long range weather models have me a bit concerned. 

There is a consensus among the CFSv2, the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian GEM that there will be frigid air building up around Alberta over the next couple of weeks.  Impacts to the southern US remain uncertain.

That arctic air will likely pour down into the US in about a week,  possibly wedging down into Texas and spreading east as well.

The GFS is not looking kind to us between the 7th and the 12th.

...And with the right set up, as the 12z Euro displays, it could cause wintry hell across Texas and spreading east into Mississippi/Alabama vicinity.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 2 W. bifurcata, 6 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 Butia x Jubaea, 1 Butia x Jubaea x Butia x Syagrus, 1 X Butiagrus nabonnandii, 2 L. chinensis, 1 Cocos nucifera 

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This coming week might prove winter is far from over east of the Rockies. Polar Vortex looks to sinking south and I see a lot of frigid purple and dark blue plunging deep into the US.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
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Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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On 1/31/2021 at 4:12 PM, PalmatierMeg said:

This coming week might prove winter is far from over east of the Rockies. Polar Vortex looks to sinking south and I see a lot of frigid purple and dark blue plunging deep into the US.

Yep next 10 days look to be the test ... mid 20’s so far is my low this winter. Last winter was 23. Looks like some upper teens are in the making :blink2:

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Looks like this cold wave will miss Deep South Texas/RGV entirely...mostly 70s and 80s in the forecast and nothing below 50F.  Odds of any real cold down there by the second week of February are very slim (same sun angle as Miami). Looks to be a weak cold front further north towards Corpus and Houston.  

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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20 hours ago, Xenon said:

Looks like this cold wave will miss Deep South Texas/RGV entirely...mostly 70s and 80s in the forecast and nothing below 50F.  Odds of any real cold down there by the second week of February are very slim (same sun angle as Miami). Looks to be a weak cold front further north towards Corpus and Houston.  

Good. Let's hope it stays that way, because sometimes there's quite a bit of drastic changes that occur when predicting these arctic airmasses.

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NWS showing Brownsville getting down into the low 50's for this weekend, Houston in the mid 40's. 

Houston Forecast --> https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.36046981811523&lat=29.761695072417027#.YBokd-hKjIU

Brownsville Forecast --> https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-97.47988700866696&lat=25.912350197371552#.YBolB-hKjIU

Would definitely monitor the forecast, as already said above things can change quickly.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 2 W. bifurcata, 6 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 Butia x Jubaea, 1 Butia x Jubaea x Butia x Syagrus, 1 X Butiagrus nabonnandii, 2 L. chinensis, 1 Cocos nucifera 

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I'm optimistic but I'm also old enough to realize that there's always a cold snap around Easter. It's gonna suck having to lug most of my plants back inside 

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14 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I'm optimistic but I'm also old enough to realize that there's always a cold snap around Easter. It's gonna suck having to lug most of my plants back inside 

Same here, last week was a tease, but my area isn't out of danger till April. I once had a hard freeze April 20th one year.

If you have any mesquite growing in your area; pay attention to them, they wont put out leaves until the freezes are over.

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2 minutes ago, amh said:

If you have any mesquite growing in your area; pay attention to them, they wont put out leaves until the freezes are over.

I'm not super familiar with area trees, but it's Texas so I'm sure there's some mesquite around. I'm in HuntsVegas though and it's definitely pine country here. The Sam Houston Nat'l Forest is 2 exits away from my home and work. 

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2 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I'm not super familiar with area trees, but it's Texas so I'm sure there's some mesquite around. I'm in HuntsVegas though and it's definitely pine country here. The Sam Houston Nat'l Forest is 2 exits away from my home and work. 

You might not have any in that area, maybe south of you.

Its one of those local wives tale/ folk lore, but the trees have only been wrong once since I've lived here.

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Just now, amh said:

You might not have any in that area, maybe south of you.

I'm in a little pinestraw filled bubble lol. But I'd definitely trust mother nature over any tv weather jerk. 

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16 hours ago, JLM said:

NWS showing Brownsville getting down into the low 50's for this weekend, Houston in the mid 40's. 

Houston Forecast --> https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.36046981811523&lat=29.761695072417027#.YBokd-hKjIU

Brownsville Forecast --> https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-97.47988700866696&lat=25.912350197371552#.YBolB-hKjIU

Would definitely monitor the forecast, as already said above things can change quickly.

Brownsville back to 60+ degree nights for the weekend, still mid 40s for Houston. Forecast has the real cold arriving 2nd half of next week...we'll see how strong and how far south it goes...

Would be really cool to have 70 degree overnight low and a low in the teens all in the same week! Not for the plants of course 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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53 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Brownsville back to 60+ degree nights for the weekend, still mid 40s for Houston. Forecast has the real cold arriving 2nd half of next week...we'll see how strong and how far south it goes...

Would be really cool to have 70 degree overnight low and a low in the teens all in the same week! Not for the plants of course 

Mother Nature: "Hold my beer"

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 2 W. bifurcata, 6 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 Butia x Jubaea, 1 Butia x Jubaea x Butia x Syagrus, 1 X Butiagrus nabonnandii, 2 L. chinensis, 1 Cocos nucifera 

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19 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Let's hope this mini-version of the great mid-February freeze of 1899 does not show up.

 

The 18z GFS run last night was more like Feb 1899. DISCLAIMER: this model run is in fantasy land. 

356151659_GS2.thumb.JPG.2d97765264d6860fe985dde12fc4a75d.JPG

Still, will be looking out for a pattern that supports a freeze potential (just very likely not the above level of cold^) during this period of time.

Edited by Matthew92
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Ugh. Hating the consistency of these runs. Albeit, confidence is still 'low' this far out.

GFS is stubborn in its infatuation with a deep freeze on the Gulf coast: it predicts a stacked high out of the Rockies (1052 mb) will drop south and a trough will dig/buckle in its wake around the 12th, for instance. 

European also shows a big Arctic high of some sort into mid-America, broad enough to drop the temps below freezing over 99% of Texas, as shown here.

 

Capture.JPG

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ugh its stilll looks bad for here. 4 days in a row below 32 for highs.

Edited by Collectorpalms

30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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Now predicting snow showers for Houston and all along the upper TX gulf coast in the AM Friday.  :rolleyes:

Looks like snow all along the I10 corridor in LA too, even New Orleans 

Still no zone breaking absolute lows yet 

Edited by Xenon
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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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We are getting a 3 day stretch of highs in the 50s next week in the RGV.  We have not had a stretch like this all winter.  This is just a wake up call that it's still winter.  At least we're not getting freezing temperatures.

Screenshot_2021-02-05-06-41-21~2.png

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On 2/2/2021 at 11:14 PM, amh said:

Same here, last week was a tease, but my area isn't out of danger till April. I once had a hard freeze April 20th one year.

If you have any mesquite growing in your area; pay attention to them, they wont put out leaves until the freezes are over.

Trees can be fooled.  Trees just respond to the current weather, they can't read the future.  For example, all of my Ash trees have budded out and started leafing.  I guess they didn't look at the forecast.  If we do end up getting a freeze, the buds will be killed and they will have to start the budding process all over again.. 

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Nothing too drastic but predicting 2 freezing nights in San Antonio.  All of my ash trees have started leafing out, I hope it doesn't kill the buds.  Not worried about palms, all I have is hardy Washingtonias, a couple of freezes won't touch them.

Edited by NBTX11
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17 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

Nothing too drastic but predicting 2 freezing nights in San Antonio.  All of my ash trees have started leafing out, I hope it doesn't kill the buds.  Not worried about palms, all I have is hardy Washingtonias, a couple of freezes won't touch them.

As long as the winds are blowing, I'm not worried.

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 latest model run for TEXAS starting the 11th into the 12th through the 14th is very cold. I try to watch model to model run for consistency and this Polar Vortex is still aiming for Texas.

Edited by Collectorpalms

30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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Latest run is sparing Deep South Texas...earlier model had Brownsville and McAllen in the upper 20s 

gfs_T2m_us_35.png.d9bb37d1e17145e364eab629b0ccea48.png

Edited by Xenon
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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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the surface high is over MO, so deep deep south texas gets a ENE wind by the 14th and probably clouds cool precip. I am obviously focused over northern gulf coast which doesnt help us.

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30 Year Zone Average 20F. Ryan: Contact 979.204.4161 Collectorpalms@gmail.com

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