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Florida Freeze Watch: Jan-Feb 2021


Matthew92

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2 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Don’t look now, but the 13th-19th are looking really chilly.  

Figures. Always when I plan to go out of town for a long weekend... 

Former South Florida resident living in the Greater Orlando Area, zone 9b.

Constantly wishing I could still grow zone 10 palms worry-free, but also trying to appease my strange fixation with Washingtonias. 

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Will have to watch out for the last second changes to the forecast that have become typical lately, but if this holds up, a relatively benign two weeks:

image.png.0b53fc13c51fcf18020e1ef3f077c181.png

 

For a few photos of the frost in the area: https://www.theledger.com/picture-gallery/news/2021/02/04/cold-weather-moves-through-polk/4393810001/

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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This has definantly been a quick turn around from a typicalish strong winter front to an almost immediate warm up with heavy rains and dew points in the 70s and temps in the 80s. It happened so fast that the tile in my house this morning was "sweating" from the suddent jump in heat and humidity after being in the low 60s inside for a few days from the cold spell. I don't ever recall that happening before...usually we slowly transition back to season and continue gradually on to above normal over several days. Today has felt rather summery with lots of sun and then heavy warm rain followed by a still, humid and warm late afternoon. Let's hope the rest of the month stays on the milder side, I already took down my cold protection for the ultra tropicals and I applied fish emulsion today to try to wake things up and feed everything that will start growing this week with temps in the 80s and lows near 70 daily.

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2 hours ago, bubba said:

Party like it’s 1899?

Have to wait until Valentine's Day for that. 

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Totally realize I could be jumping the gun here, and feeling way too optimistic given the cold snap we just went through, but this has me feeling like we could be seeing a real change in weather pattern happening right now. Thunderstorms? Lows all above 55? Certainly sounds like spring to me! At the very least, if nothing changes, I’m excited for 10 whole days without having to lug my coconut palm inside or cover anything with frost blankets!!! :yay:
 

F443B415-A1B3-42B1-B568-4742DDE9A08D.thumb.png.5e87d1d56598b16afb54341e8fb1ebe8.png

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Former South Florida resident living in the Greater Orlando Area, zone 9b.

Constantly wishing I could still grow zone 10 palms worry-free, but also trying to appease my strange fixation with Washingtonias. 

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Latest forecast I heard, as of the 5:30 pm newscast for this side of the Gulf is that our lowest here at the airport (about 20 miles inland) for Saturday is supposed to be 39F with a high of 59F, normal low/high this time of year is about 50F/70F.  This is a significant jump in temps from the forecast the other day when they were calling for freezing temps here and a chance of frozen precip!!!  It seems like this bad Arctic front is moderating and we may dodge the bullet on this one!

John

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6 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Latest forecast I heard, as of the 5:30 pm newscast for this side of the Gulf is that our lowest here at the airport (about 20 miles inland) for Saturday is supposed to be 39F with a high of 59F, normal low/high this time of year is about 50F/70F.  This is a significant jump in temps from the forecast the other day when they were calling for freezing temps here and a chance of frozen precip!!!  It seems like this bad Arctic front is moderating and we may dodge the bullet on this one!

John

I hope that moderation continues.  We had a forecasted low of 30f for this coming Saturday and now it has jumped 16 degrees to 46f.

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They have just revised the forecast down again for the latter part of the weekend for here, back down to freezing with frozen precip!!!  I am getting tired of these "educated" forecasters with all their damn computer models.  I would far rather take my chances with the old fashioned was of looking at the clouds, and monitoring the barometric pressure, isobars, isotherms, and watching the animals to forecast weather, rather than all this high tech crap!!!

John

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1 hour ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

 

They have just revised the forecast down again for the latter part of the weekend for here, back down to freezing with frozen precip!!!  I am getting tired of these "educated" forecasters with all their damn computer models.  I would far rather take my chances with the old fashioned was of looking at the clouds, and monitoring the barometric pressure, isobars, isotherms, and watching the animals to forecast weather, rather than all this high tech crap!!!

John

I'm sick of it too. I thought I learned my lesson in Jan 2019, but am finding myself getting too caught up in computer models and meteorologist forecasts again this winter. My 10 day forecast has jumped up and down like mad just the last few days and has gone from a potential hard freeze to no days below 41 deg. It's crazy how sure a certain pattern has looked only for it to go "poof" or materialize in a different way. It's giving me a headache. I need a break from it and to only take the forecasts less than 5 days out seriously. 

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8 hours ago, chad2468emr said:

Totally realize I could be jumping the gun here, and feeling way too optimistic given the cold snap we just went through, but this has me feeling like we could be seeing a real change in weather pattern happening right now. Thunderstorms? Lows all above 55? Certainly sounds like spring to me! At the very least, if nothing changes, I’m excited for 10 whole days without having to lug my coconut palm inside or cover anything with frost blankets!!! :yay:

If it does pan out as predicted, a ridge of high pressure is what you have to thank to spare FL. It's looking like it will keep the arctic air all to the West (disclaimer- forecast is not 100% confidence yet). If so, will be thanking our lucky stars cause if it wasn't for that ridge it would be a massacre for us given how potent the arctic air outbreak in the CONUS is. Still, these warmer temps are what is going to trigger anything that was still dormant to bloom/leaf out BIG TIME which could set up for a bad situation if the cold air does make it here before the threat of frosts/freezing temperatures truly end. Boy, sometimes I just wish the seasons would behave in the Southeast US. When it gets that warm so early it's almost as though I don't feel like I deserve it given it's still late winter and there's a threat of more freezing weather (of course this is more so for me and somewhat less for you for where you are). Gives me a headache having such fickle temperatures.

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On 2/3/2021 at 8:58 PM, NickJames said:

I heard they didn’t like frost but it didn’t get damaged at all by my heavy frost on Christmas week, isn’t that funny?

How’s it looking now?

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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Latest GFS looking downright frigid for Texas on Monday the 15th.  This is obviously just one model run and chances of it verifying are near zero, but it definitely is signaling a strong blast of artic air.  The Euro seems to push the cold air through quicker and not as deep into the SE. How far South and East it makes it is the better question. 

"Educated forecasters" can only do so much, and they certainly do more than model analysis.  Unfortunately predicting the future, especially 240 hours out, is difficult.

sfct.us_sc.png
Edited by JJPalmer
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4 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

How’s it looking now?

It’s ok. Ill take some more pics in a bit. This was from Saturday. This is the oldest frond on it. None of the existing fronds were in the best condition anyways but this clearly has frost burn on it. The new spear and frond that opened up since I planted it seem not impacted. It definitely was heavy frosted though so I’m happy to see it is alive.

My foxtail continues to show damage. It was slow to appear. It appeared initially like it had no damage. Pics of that later as well....

C868D779-E676-46E9-B209-FE676F000595.jpeg

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19 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Latest forecast I heard, as of the 5:30 pm newscast for this side of the Gulf is that our lowest here at the airport (about 20 miles inland) for Saturday is supposed to be 39F with a high of 59F, normal low/high this time of year is about 50F/70F.  This is a significant jump in temps from the forecast the other day when they were calling for freezing temps here and a chance of frozen precip!!!  It seems like this bad Arctic front is moderating and we may dodge the bullet on this one!

John

Latest GFS 

 

1AA591DE-1DFF-4F30-8E7C-040D5C1F9FF1.jpeg

09E35648-018F-4407-A472-A68DEEB6DFA5.png

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Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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Various Forecasts for my location this weekend.
Saturday:
Accuweather - 57/39 Rain & Thunderstorms
The Weather Channel - 60/37 Rain Showers
National Weather Service - 60/42 Cloudy/Few Showers
Sunday:
Accuweather - 60/40 Mostly Sunny/Breezy
The Weather Channel - 50/29 Chance of Showers/Low chance Wintry Precip Overnight
National Weather Service - 51/33 Mostly Cloudy/Few Showers

Accuweather predicts one night in the 30's
The Weather Channel predicts 7 nights in the 30's, one night in the 20's (13th-19th)
National Weather Service predicts one night in the 30's (Only goes through Monday)

Lots of forecast uncertainty, but hopefully we wont get those scary numbers.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 2 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

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On 2/7/2021 at 9:46 PM, Reyes Vargas said:

I hope that moderation continues.  We had a forecasted low of 30f for this coming Saturday and now it has jumped 16 degrees to 46f.

Reyes, 

Forecasts here keep jumping all over the place.  I hope a miracle will occur, and the whole system will moderate in the next 48 hours, and what is left of it, go east of us!

John

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5 hours ago, NickJames said:

 

8805F030-82B4-47F2-82A4-F487938610CA.jpeg

17356AF1-6A8A-4C6F-8CC5-4B85205F060C.jpeg

187405F4-8F15-40B8-BE7D-B43DE454E586.jpeg

A636A0E3-755C-436F-9B6F-295AE9874DC2.jpeg

C209C95F-1113-4B35-884E-5C9211880CB9.jpeg

45EF050D-3495-4166-8C4F-85E4B359D43F.jpeg

Thanks! It doesn't look great, but not too bad either. I guess it was the frost, upper 20s shouldn't phase this palm.

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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16 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks! It doesn't look great, but not too bad either. I guess it was the frost, upper 20s shouldn't phase this palm.

I also wonder if it not being in great condition to begin with or having only been planted a few months could be a factor as well? Maybe that would only matter if it was the freeze causing damage vs frost. I think the poor thing was in a container for ages. I can’t wait to see it come end of Summer? Once the weather warms up, and I turn on the sprinklers, it will basically sit in water 24/7. 
 

The archontophoenix (I think Alexandra’s and Tuckeri) seedlings I planted around it are hit and miss. The ones I forgot to cover that one frosty night in December died. The ones I covered for this last freeze are ok. 

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59 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Reyes, 

Forecasts here keep jumping all over the place.  I hope a miracle will occur, and the whole system will moderate in the next 48 hours, and what is left of it, go east of us!

John

Here's how this is gonna go, you pass it here, i'll pass it east, and everyone else in Florida will happily pass it east into the Atlantic :)

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 2 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

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1 hour ago, NickJames said:

I also wonder if it not being in great condition to begin with or having only been planted a few months could be a factor as well? Maybe that would only matter if it was the freeze causing damage vs frost. I think the poor thing was in a container for ages. I can’t wait to see it come end of Summer? Once the weather warms up, and I turn on the sprinklers, it will basically sit in water 24/7. 
 

The archontophoenix (I think Alexandra’s and Tuckeri) seedlings I planted around it are hit and miss. The ones I forgot to cover that one frosty night in December died. The ones I covered for this last freeze are ok. 

Yeah, good point about it not being established. You're going to have to watch it again starting in May for sun damage. I think it's big enough to where sun won't be a problem, but full sun will kill younger archontophoenix so it's worth keeping an eye on.

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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7 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Yeah, good point about it not being established. You're going to have to watch it again starting in May for sun damage. I think it's big enough to where sun won't be a problem, but full sun will kill younger archontophoenix so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Thanks. I’m hoping the volume of water this area receives will at least slightly compensate for it!? My elephant ears looked GREAT (even though they don’t want full sun) before the freeze for that reason.

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This morning's NWS discussion from Mobile which covers the below area

EddKbgLUMAAjn4h.png

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...We continue to have a
highly uncertain extended forecast with a highly complex, but active
pattern. The period begins with a surface front having pushed
through our region, with the leading edge of a large, polar airmass
located just to the west of our forecast area. Looking aloft, a
fairly weak shortwave located over the central Gulf coast region
on Friday will move east of our area by early Saturday as a much
stronger shortwave digs into northern Old Mexico. From this point
on into the second half of the extended period, there is a very
large amount of spread between model solutions, so we have a very
difficult and challenging extended forecast.

Questions remain as to the strength of the surface high behind the
front and the quality of the arctic air that will be trying to move
into the area. The overall trend has been a slow backing off of the
quality of cold air, but there are still considerable model
differences.
Model difference in the mid and upper level patterns
remain very different as well. Both of the primary model solutions
keep a generally southwesterly flow, with mainly weak shortwaves to
varying degrees, streaming across our area Friday through Saturday.
This will keep things fairly unsettled Friday and Saturday with the
coldest air still back to the west of our area but with a chance for
rain through that timeframe. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible, but general storms (no severe) expected at this time.

The bigger differences in the model data has been in the Sunday
through Monday time frame in association with the stronger shortwave
digging into the American Southwest. The 09/00Z GFS is coming in a
little more similar to the EURO than the previous run with regard to
that feature. Both solutions now have the trough axis roughly in the
same location by early Monday morning, generally over New Mexico. It
appears both model solutions now indicate that it will be dry for
the most part over our forecast area on Sunday into Monday, which is
consistent with previous forecast and close to 08/12Z EURO and
the NBM solutions. We will continue with this scenario. Models are
now somewhat similar in bringing the weakening axis of this
shortwave east across our area just beyond the extended period
(ie-by early next Tuesday). For the time being, as the previous
shift stated, the overall trend has been trending back on the
extremely cold temperatures this weekend and this still seems to
be the case, so it appears that the very cold air and sub freezing
temperatures likely won`t be pushing into our area until next
Sunday night or Monday.

Will let the forecast temperature numbers in the forecast speak for
themselves without going into specifics here. Things will likely
change as we get closer to the current extended period and hopefully
models continue to increase in consistency and we will better be
able to iron out the details over the next couple of days. This has
been a tough one.
/12

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NWS Mobile mentioned wintry precip in their discussion yesterday which was kind of surprising.
My forecast:

Today - Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after noon. Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight - A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and midnight. Patchy dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night - Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 59. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday - Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night - Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday - A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday - A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night - Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Monday - A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Monday Night - Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday - A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 55.


I currently dont expect anything, but definitely worth watching.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 2 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

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Unfortunately, the next stretch of several days of highs in the 60's and rain is going to trigger an early spring here. Some plants and trees are "smart" and won't bloom out just yet, but my citrus are already putting out new growth and some of the deciduous (saucer) magnolia flowers are starting to open. Sigh... If we had only gotten some of this cold wave then could have had a proper spring after this (hopefully) last big cold wave finishes near the end of the month.

Some of the best springs here were years with intense and longer lasting cold (2010, 2014, and 2015).

Edited by Matthew92
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I'm an amateur but the GFS and Euro long term looks really good for Central and South Florida. I don't see anything as far as a freeze so we're almost out of the woods climatology.

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1 hour ago, TampaPalms said:

I'm an amateur but the GFS and Euro long term looks really good for Central and South Florida. I don't see anything as far as a freeze so we're almost out of the woods climatology.

Agreed.  Just glad I'm not in Texas.  Latest GFS is looney-tunes cold - obviously won't verify, but still.  Even the 12z-EURO has Austin at 10 degrees on Tuesday morning. Sheesh

Edited by JJPalmer
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1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

Agreed.  Just glad I'm not in Texas.  Latest GFS is looney-tunes cold - obviously won't verify, but still.  Even the 12z-EURO has Austin at 10 degrees on Tuesday morning. Sheesh

 

2 hours ago, TampaPalms said:

I'm an amateur but the GFS and Euro long term looks really good for Central and South Florida. I don't see anything as far as a freeze so we're almost out of the woods climatology.

The thing is- if the forecast temps for Texas pans out, it will demonstrate that a cold event making it this far south and rivaling a 1980's or late 1800's cold event is still possible. I've seen some comments in the past from some who think a 1980's type cold event is very doubtful to happen again as our climate warms. Maybe the frequency of such an event is dwindling, but this event would demonstrate it can still happen.

The sobering thing is, (again if this cold event pans out as currently predicted), where this far-south reaching "cold knife" of air reaches down is simply dependent on the setup of the pattern (southeast ridge of high pressure, trough placement etc..) and that's the only thing from keeping it farther east or west. FL would not be immune (only the lower half of the peninsula would be more protected due to ocean influence) if those basic setup dynamics were just a little different.

Even still, I'm watching the evolution of this closely as some of the most recent guidance shows the hard freezing temps making it uncomfortably close to the FL Panhandle. It's also unknown how far east this cold air will move (albeit becoming modified somewhat) after the Valentine's day period.

Edited by Matthew92
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@Matthew92

It'll also show how much has to go right (or wrong :P) for the forecast to pan out. I've noticed many upper air patterns and trends that could easily turn the tables regarding the severity of the event.

Edited by AnTonY
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NWS has DFW dropping to a high of 18° Monday and a low of 6°F Monday night....

Edited by JJPalmer
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3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

 

The thing is- if the forecast temps for Texas pans out, it will demonstrate that a cold event making it this far south and rivaling a 1980's or late 1800's cold event is still possible. I've seen some comments in the past from some who think a 1980's type cold event is very doubtful to happen again as our climate warms. Maybe the frequency of such an event is dwindling, but this event would demonstrate it can still happen.

The sobering thing is, (again if this cold event pans out as currently predicted), where this far-south reaching "cold knife" of air reaches down is simply dependent on the setup of the pattern (southeast ridge of high pressure, trough placement etc..) and that's the only thing from keeping it farther east or west. FL would not be immune (only the lower half of the peninsula would be more protected due to ocean influence) if those basic setup dynamics were just a little different.

These are my thoughts, exactly.  If the Texas event pans out it means that terrible and destructive cold could still strike Florida, depending on the set up.

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1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

NWS has DFW dropping to a high of 18° Monday and a low of 6°F Monday night....

I’m seeing 19f and snow for Houston. :bemused:
 

@Mr. Coconut Palm, looks like 24f is your forecast. 

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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9 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Unfortunately, the next stretch of several days of highs in the 60's and rain is going to trigger an early spring here. Some plants and trees are "smart" and won't bloom out just yet, but my citrus are already putting out new growth and some of the deciduous (saucer) magnolia flowers are starting to open. Sigh... If we had only gotten some of this cold wave then could have had a proper spring after this (hopefully) last big cold wave finishes near the end of the month.

Some of the best springs here were years with intense and longer lasting cold (2010, 2014, and 2015).

Im seeing movement with Maples in the area. 

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 2 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 1 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa

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This is looking like it will be brutal. All four cold fronts are stalling back to back to back without moving east and they keep descending deeper right through the heart of Texas.   Looking at the Shreveport forecast in comparison is unreal. 

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@Matthew92

@ChristianStAug

@TexasColdHardyPalms

Nah. Florida (along and south of I-4) is the sole safe haven for palm growing and subtropical-tropical gardening in the Eastern US. Bar none.

After that, go up along Florida's west coast to St. Andrew's Bay, then draw a line northeast to Jacksonville. This territory of Florida still gets a bit chilly to preclude to real tender tropicals, but it very much exhibits solid, proper subtropical-tropical weather. The area is very much on the cusp of having a good garden. Could possibly toss in some of the extreme coastal areas of GA and SC into that category.

Everywhere else, even the Panhandle of Florida west of St. Andrew's Bay, is tentative at this point - if the event overperforms, then these areas may become complete write-offs.

 

Edited by AnTonY
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Once again, feel horrible for Texas but still believe it will not be as catastrophic as predicted. Something is obviously wrong when Indiantown, Fl., out in the Glades, is reporting 91F at around 1PM. This is with 75% humidity and a real feel of 130 F on February 13, 2021. Winter hot spots like this are usually reserved for RGV, California desert or Yuma, Az. Lower humidity, however...

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What you look for is what is looking

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