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Tropical storm Chris

SubTropicRay

By SubTropicRay
in WEATHER / CLIMATE

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SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
Posted

Is the bullseye on us again?

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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steve 9atx Experienced

steve 9atx

Posted
Posted

Ray

Worst case for all of us is, you get it first, and then we (or God forbid NOLA) gets it after it's had time to grow up in the Gulf.  We had a little brush from Rita last year with only about 70mph winds at my house. My bangalows were left pretty wobbly after a half day of those winds broke many of the roots off by working the trunks.  My bananas were shredded into what still look like pinnate palm leaves.  The instant it was gone, we had no power, 98F and 80% RH to deal with.

Keep your head down.

Steve

USDA Zone 9a/b, AHS Heat Zone 9, Sunset Zone 28

49'/14m above sea level, 25mi/40km to Galveston Bay

Long-term average rainfall 47.84"/1215mm

Near-term (7yr) average rainfall 55.44"/1410mm

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Palmarum Grand Master

Palmarum

Posted
Posted

I hope it does not head this way, but what could I do about it. If it comes on Monday, it will ruin a palm meeting and cause me to move all my plants into the house.

Ryan

South Florida

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NBTX11 Grand Master

NBTX11

Posted
Posted

Tampa probably won't get hit unless it gets into the gulf and does a U turn.  The LA, MS, AL gulf coast are probably more likely.  Course South FL or the keys look like they could get hit first.

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SunnyFl Mentor

SunnyFl

Posted
Posted

With any luck at all, the slight south-of-due-west motion would take it into the mountains of Hispaniola.  Not a good thing for Hispaniola, unfortunately, but that would weaken it to the point it probably wouldn't regenerate.

If that motion is only a wobble though, it could go anywhere - most likely farther west.

Problem is, after Chris, there will be others. :(

Ryan, I hope you are spared this Season - you had a bad enough time last year.  Couldn't believe how well Rainforest had recovered by last spring - that had to be a major job, dealing with all that storm damage.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Exotic Life Grand Master

Exotic Life

Posted
Posted

It's a tropical storm now ? not hurricane force winds yet i see on a picture. But for you good luck if it's hit you ...

Southwest

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Walter John Grand Master

Walter John

Posted
Posted

Can someone give us a good link to the storm zone ?

Happy Gardening

Cheers,

Wal

Queensland, Australia.

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SunnyFl Mentor

SunnyFl

Posted
Posted

(Wal @ Aug. 03 2006,05:34)

QUOTE
Can someone give us a good link to the storm zone ?

Don't know about links to the storm zone, but here are two of the best links for tropical wx discussion:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/index.php

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Walter John Grand Master

Walter John

Posted
Posted

Here you go, now, what's it mean ?

084635.gif

Happy Gardening

Cheers,

Wal

Queensland, Australia.

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SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The winds have "subsided" to 45 mph this morning.  Hopefully, it won't charge up again in the gulf.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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cryptobionic Contributor

cryptobionic

Posted
Posted

I'm bummed. I was looking forward to the generous amount of that life-giving rain... (and maybe enough wind to clean out the dead twigs and sheltered mosquitos from my trees and shrubs.)

Minneola, Florida

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SunnyFl Mentor

SunnyFl

Posted
Posted

(Wal @ Aug. 03 2006,07:25)

QUOTE
Here you go, now, what's it mean ?

The colors around the storm designate what probability any particular area would get winds of Tropical Storm (sustained at or above 39mph) within a 120-hour (5-day) timeframe.  Right around the storm itself, you'll see the color that designates 100%.  That's because readings in the vicinity of the storm show that the wind is at TS force - so it's a certainty.  

But as you get farther out in time, the probability decreases that any particular place in the cone will experience those winds.  That's because it's less certain where the storm will actually go, AND it's harder to predict what the intensity will be when it gets there.  Trying to determine a storm's intensity in the 5-day period is harder to forecast than its track.

In the pic, the Tampa Bay area has only a 5% chance of being hit - doubtful the storm would make it up that far.  But Cuba's chance of getting those winds is twice Tampa Bay's because it's closer to the storm, and that's where the storm is expected to track.

Five-day forecasts are good to watch to see which way a storm is trending, and they're improving.  But sometimes something totally unexpected can cause a storm to veer off course - and a forecast only a few hours out will be wrong.

Example is Charley.  Everyone "knew" it would hit Tampa Bay.  Suddenly a right-hook caused by a front - and a largely-unprepared Port Charlotte got nailed.

Was a very frightening day.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

As hoped for, it has petered out.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Hi Joe,

Even when they are off the coast of Africa they're too close for me.  The predicted number of storms has been reduced due to increased activity with the Caribbean and Atlantic trade winds.  It sounds good to me!

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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