Cold may be coming to Florida

[JJPalmer]

Latest 3km NAM looking marginally better, still trending cooler than GFS but quite similar to the EURO.  

Edited January 20, 2020 by JJPalmer

[ruskinPalms]

Wow. Awesome graphic. I’d like to point out that Desoto county somehow has a native stand of royal palms 

[ruskinPalms]

That being said I think the forecast graphic is legit. I’m expecting around 35 to 36 here.

[JJPalmer]

1 minute ago, ruskinPalms said:

That being said I think the forecast graphic is legit. I’m expecting around 35 to 36 here.

Here’s a link to the model page: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

[ruskinPalms]

I have lived in this current place since 2015 and I have yet to scrape ice on my windshield. Before that I lived in Bradenton just west of I75 between highway 64 and highway 70 and I remember many a time scraping the windshield. We will see what what happens. 

[ruskinPalms]

It did get down to around 27F in the winter following Irma but there was no frost with that, adjective freeze. I lost about 3 small foxtails and nothing else. I had coconut in the ground that laughed at it. Here is a pic from tonight. 
 

[palmsOrl]

I'm guessing downtown Orlando will see 38-39F, while the warmer surrounding suburbs should be 35-38F.  The outskirts of the Orlando area could see anywhere from 28F-35 as the coldest temperature.  Winters here used to bring much colder cold snaps and I remember much chillier daytime highs as well.  A daytime high below 50F is quite unusual now(every few years) whereas we tended to get at least 1-2 per winter up to about 2010.

Edited January 21, 2020 by palmsOrl

[Estlander]

I’m forecasted to drop to 33F tomorrow morning up here in Destin on the coastal panhandle, and a low of 34 Wednesday morning. We’ll see what my thermometer records in my yard. 

Some crazy temps. for inland panhandle, however. Crestview shows a low of 26F for Tuesday morning, and 23F for Wednesday morning. 
 

Edited January 21, 2020 by Estlander

[kinzyjr]

Looks like it is my turn in the barrel so to speak.  Weather.com is forecasting 32F here for the overnight low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

[GottmitAlex]

9 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like it is my turn in the barrel so to speak.  Weather.com is forecasting 32F here for the overnight low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Hope it doesn't. Keep us apprised. 

[bubba]

61F North of the old Monkey Jungle at 10:13 PM. Weather Underground reports 58F. The low will be 55F. with a high of only 68F. tomorrow.

The undertaker is scheduled for tomorrow but they always forget about that 85°F. Gulfstream 2 miles offshore...This is nothing compared to 2010 or the last ice fair on the Thames in 1812!
 

 

[JLM]

 

2 hours ago, Estlander said:

I’m forecasted to drop to 33F tomorrow morning up here in Destin on the coastal panhandle, and a low of 34 Wednesday morning. We’ll see what my thermometer records in my yard. 

Some crazy temps. for inland panhandle, however. Crestview shows a low of 26F for Tuesday morning, and 23F for Wednesday morning. 
 

Yes, crazy cold here, i have a sheet wrapped around the bud of my largest queen, and other than that just christmas lights. My smallest queen had a sheet over it once upon a time but my dogs pulled it off so now its just lights. Im hoping the wind will be blowing enough so that we dont have any frost issues.

[Estlander]

51 minutes ago, JLM said:

 

Yes, crazy cold here, i have a sheet wrapped around the bud of my largest queen, and other than that just christmas lights. My smallest queen had a sheet over it once upon a time but my dogs pulled it off so now its just lights. Im hoping the wind will be blowing enough so that we dont have any frost issues.

Yeah, it’s getting there. 40F in my yard right now. 33F up where you are. 
Shows you’ll be dropping to 29F in the morning and 28F Wednesday morning.

Your Queens will be fine. I guess a sheet is not a bad idea if you’re expecting frost. 
Be glad you’re not in Crestview. Their expected low for Wednesday morning has now dropped to 22F. Crazyyyyyy!!!!

 

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by Estlander

[RedRabbit]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like it is my turn in the barrel so to speak.  Weather.com is forecasting 32F here for the overnight low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Same here, 32f is now in the forecast. 

[waykoolplantz]

41 projected here

[Hombre de Palmas]

Tonight's the Night-Neil Young.

Euro & GFS seem to be warming a bit. The Rapid Update & Mesoscale are getting colder. NWS seems to be siding more with the Euro/GFS for now.

I'll be happy for tomorrow afternoon.

 

[JJPalmer]

1 minute ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Tonight's the Night-Neil Young.

Euro & GFS seem to be warming a bit. The Rapid Update & Mesoscale are getting colder. NWS seems to be siding more with the Euro/GFS for now.

I'll be happy for tomorrow afternoon.

 

NWS latest forecast for the area as of 1:30am 

[Hombre de Palmas]

That's cold.

Current NWS forecast is 40F here, but some of the models are advertising mid-30s, with a stiff wind.

[Chatta]

So not stoked! 32F really isn't all that cold, and it appears that the humidity is dropping significantly (52% predicted @ 32F). I am covering lotta my young stuff, rooms packed full of plants atm. Might bring in more tomorrow if I feel up to it. Hoping the coconuts can take it. 38F was forecasted last night and it ended up only hitting 40F. Maybe ill be ok and only hit 34F *fingers crossed*

[Jimbean]

47F here in Melbourne.  Not bad at all.  It's been 10B/11A here for several years.

[JJPalmer]

Here’s the latest HRRR - lotta chilly air out there.

[PalmatierMeg]

NWS forecast for Ft. Myers is 29F? I don't believe that map for any location. My forecast low remains at 36F and I don't believe it is off by 7 degrees. I saw 28.5F during the record cold blast 10 years ago and one night at 29F 20 years ago - both records. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

The HRR, NAM & WRF have all been consistently colder than the GFS and Euro. Now the latest run of the GFS has dropped too. I am preparing myself for mid-30's tonight but hope it's better.

 

Right now I'm not optimistic.

[JJPalmer]

28 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

NWS forecast for Ft. Myers is 29F? I don't believe that map for any location. My forecast low remains at 36F and I don't believe it is off by 7 degrees. I saw 28.5F during the record cold blast 10 years ago and one night at 29F 20 years ago - both records. 

Those are windchill forecasts. The temperature forecast is on the left of the graphic. 

[PalmatierMeg]

8 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Those are windchill forecasts. The temperature forecast is on the left of the graphic. 

Okay, that's more like it. Thanks for the clarification.

[Estlander]

Ended up recording -1C/30F as the last night’s low in my yard.  The forecasted range was 33-32F by weather.com. Wunderground got it right. Their forecast said 30F. 
33F predicted for the night ahead.

If we don’t break the last night’s low of 30F tonight, then it looks like another 10A winter for my area. That is, if February won’t have any surprises for us. 
Last year’s winter low was 33F. 
 

[bubba]

No Choppers out in the Glades tonight, at least east of Lake Okeechobee. Those folks are the real professionals (weather) because they have much to win or lose.
 

It can get cold between the lake and the ocean so the lack of choppers should be taken as a serious statement. Lows tomorrow night are in the 60sF. It will be interesting to see how cold it gets near the ocean tonight!

[Walt]

My local forecast is calling for 33 degrees at 7:00 a.m. tomorrow (1-22-20). It also calls for winds to be no lower than 10 MPH (I hope so) all night long tonight. That would mean very little probability of frost.  I taped a remote thermometer sensor to my coconut palm (6 feet above the ground, and on the north side of the trunk) to see just what the low temperature will ultimately be. The only thing I protected is a trailer full of potted palms that I moved into my garage -- after letting them soak up the sun all day in front of my house. I could have pulled the trailer under my large Ficus altissima tree and they would probably be fine, but I figured the warmer the better for the potted palms.

Normally for me the wind dies at night and I wind up with radiational cooling, and with frost. Today, with so much bright sunshine, I shot well water up on my roof to pick up the heat in the shingles and let the warm water run off onto my large ixora super kings. I did this four times (each time letting the roof dry out and reheat from the sun's rays). The soil all around my ixoras is saturated where it could pick up more solar heat to give back off at night. But if the wind blows all night the moist soil won't make much difference. The moist soil mainly helps on radiational cooling nights. I hope this is the coldest air we will see this winter.

[ruskinPalms]

NWS is forecasting 34F for me tonight. Supposed to stay windy but we will see...

[kinzyjr]

The current forecast on Weather.com for tonight has my location at 33F and earlier had a Freeze Warning along with a Wind Chill Advisory for my area.

I caught a major break overnight into this morning.  Forecast low was 38-39F throughout the area.  I woke up to 42.9F at 6am.  Weather.com had us at 41F by 7am.  Weather Underground had several readings of 42F and 43F closer to my end of town, giving me a little more faith in my weather station's reading.

For those interested in Beccariophoenix alfredii hardiness, I have one under canopy here and will report any damage - but the real test is going down in Dade City tonight as @FishEyeAquaculture has multiple specimens: https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/8924-beccariophoenix-alfredii/&page=7&tab=comments#comment-920226

[Hombre de Palmas]

NWS is forecasting 41°F, WeatherUnderground 42°. All of the Mesoscale & Short Term Models are showing mid-upper 30's. The GFS/Euro/CMC are all warmer than that so I believe them.

 

Good Luck All!

[kinzyjr]

9 hours ago, Chatta said:

So not stoked! 32F really isn't all that cold, and it appears that the humidity is dropping significantly (52% predicted @ 32F). I am covering lotta my young stuff, rooms packed full of plants atm. Might bring in more tomorrow if I feel up to it. Hoping the coconuts can take it. 38F was forecasted last night and it ended up only hitting 40F. Maybe ill be ok and only hit 34F *fingers crossed*

I think you will be alright there.  Even if it hits freezing, the duration should be pretty short - as in only a few hours at that temperature.  I may not bother with covering mine tonight if the temperature drop is slow.

[RedRabbit]

The forecast calls for strong winds so it sounds like windchill will be a problem tonight for anything exposed. Otherwise, this probably won’t be a big deal...

Do we have any volunteers to take Wunderground screenshots at 7am tomorrow? I usually go to bed around 3 so that’s the middle of the night for me.

Edited January 21, 2020 by RedRabbit

[kinzyjr]

4 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

The forecast calls for strong winds so it sounds like windchill will be a problem tonight for anything exposed. Otherwise, this probably won’t be a big deal...

Do we have any volunteers to take Wunderground screenshots at 7am tomorrow? I usually go to bed around 3 so that’s the middle of the night for me.

Wind is supposed to be in the neighborhood of 15mph here, but all of my tender stuff is basically windscreened either by the house or by podocarpus and sea grapes.

Which areas should the volunteer grab?

[Hombre de Palmas]

I can take a few. I'm up at 5AM typically.

[JJPalmer]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

The forecast calls for strong winds so it sounds like windchill will be a problem tonight for anything exposed. Otherwise, this probably won’t be a big deal...

Do we have any volunteers to take Wunderground screenshots at 7am tomorrow? I usually go to bed around 3 so that’s the middle of the night for me.

I’ll snag some for ya. I drive across the bay to Tampa at 5:30 every morning. Will be interesting to see the car thermostat change along the drive.

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Wind is supposed to be in the neighborhood of 15mph here, but all of my tender stuff is basically windscreened either by the house or by podocarpus and sea grapes.

Which areas should the volunteer grab?

I think all of FL and coastal GA would be ideal. The more detail the better, this kind of thing is always good to reference later.

Edited January 22, 2020 by RedRabbit

[RedRabbit]

21 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

I can take a few. I'm up at 5AM typically.

 

8 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

I’ll snag some for ya. I drive across the bay to Tampa at 5:30 every morning. Will be interesting to see the car thermostat change along the drive.

Thanks guys! 

[Palmaceae]

Temps are slowly going down, all pretty even in Pinellas county as of 10:00 pm due to the wind.

 

[kinzyjr]

@Palmaceae Very uniform!  I didn't think I would live long enough to see Bartow record the same temperature as inland St. Pete at 10pm during a cold snap.