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Tropical Cyclone Dorian


palmsOrl

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Okay, so it appears that Tropical Storm Dorian will pose a significant threat to peninsular Florida this weekend, Labor Day Weekend.  Currently, the storm is forecast to make landfall on the coast of East Central Florida.  This is, of course, subject to change, but track forecasts have improved dramatically in recent years.

What is more uncertain is the strength of Dorian.  While previously believed that the tropical cyclone would pass directly over Hispaniola, the computer model consensus now has Dorian passing between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico or directly over Puerto Rico.  This would cause far less disruption to the storm's circulation and would leave the storm more intact for even greater strengthening between the Antilles and Florida.

The official NWS forecast for Orlando already calls for potential tropical storm conditions Friday night and Saturday (30-40 mph gusting to 55 mph).  

Who has begun making preparations for Dorian?  What are you doing to keep your palms and other plants safe during the storm.  My whole collection at this point is potted so is more vulnerable but I may be able to just move the plants inside.

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I'll probably bring the potted stuff in and trim up some of the shrubs to make them more wind resistant and unable to damage windows, etc.  That ought to be good enough for some tropical storm winds.  We'll see until then.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Sounds like a great plan Jeremy.  I am going to do the same and will take in the potted stuff Friday if warranted.  

A great deal of uncertainty exists in the long range track of Tropical Storm Dorian (doesn't it always?) and some of the reliable computer models are now curving the storm north just east of East Central Florida around the western periphery of the developing area of high pressure in the Western Atlantic around day 5.  This could put Georgia and South and North Carolina in the path of Dorian instead.  I will put more faith in the models once they have run a few more times, taking into consideration the center relocation much further north which occurred earlier today.

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I'm still in a legal battle with insurance company to get repairs of roof from Irma damage. Even a cat 1 would probably strip large sections of shingles off because they're 2 years older & sun weathered. I hope it just vanishes.

I have a few thousand plants in growers pots but doubt they'd be bothered much. I only have a few taller palms that would tip over in 2 gal growers pots so I'll just lay them over ahead of time if it's gonna hit here. Bigger stuff's in 7 gal and not really big plants for container size so they wouldn't tip. Nothing's been transplanted recently that would be risky.

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Thankfully, Irma didn't damage anything here irreparably.  I did have a lot of limbs down and the power out for 4 days, but overall, that's pretty light considering we took the dirty side of the storm.  Hope the legal battle and the storm both end in your favor @NOT A TA!

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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16 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Thankfully, Irma didn't damage anything here irreparably.  I did have a lot of limbs down and the power out for 4 days, but overall, that's pretty light considering we took the dirty side of the storm.  Hope the legal battle and the storm both end in your favor @NOT A TA!

Thanks, the northeast quadrant of Irma hit us pretty hard and I lost about 100 shingles. Mostly tabs and no leaks so far. Wilma in 05 hit us dead center harder and did more damage in the yard than Irma. I had coconuts snap in half from Wilma. I'm between a substation and major roads and a shelter on a high power section so we get power back really fast if we loose it. My street was the only one with power anywhere around here after Irma, was only out 3 days with Wilma '05 while others didn't get power for a month or longer.

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1 minute ago, NOT A TA said:

Thanks, the northeast quadrant of Irma hit us pretty hard and I lost about 100 shingles. Mostly tabs and no leaks so far. Wilma in 05 hit us dead center harder and did more damage in the yard than Irma. I had coconuts snap in half from Wilma. I'm between a substation and major roads and a shelter on a high power section so we get power back really fast if we loose it. My street was the only one with power anywhere around here after Irma, was only out 3 days with Wilma '05 while others didn't get power for a month or longer.

My worst experience was definitely 2004.  Charley, Frances and Jeanne all crossed around the Lake Wales area.  At the time, I was working in a welding shop and the double wide I was staying in split down the middle during Jeanne.  Thankfully, the gym didn't lose power so that made a good place to go after work to cool off a little and shower.  It made sleeping in the car a little more comfortable.

:badday:

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Having the house split in half is worse than I've had that's for sure! I bought in spring '05 so I missed out on the '04 excitement. Wind from Wilma lifted the large peak roof over the front of my house & blew out the support columns kinking the ridge. I've been rebuilding the house both inside & out from various bad things that happened. Not looking forward to replacing the ridge beam. It's a tricky job to do alone without making the house vulnerable.

I actually have a Snap-On welding table in my living room.  ahahaha

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Looks like the track has moved a little north and it will make landfall as a strong CAT2 from this graphic:

201808280800_Dorian.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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3 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like the track has moved a little north and it will make landfall as a strong CAT2 from this graphic:

That would be bad for my roof. If it hits here as a cat 2 I see big blue tarps in my future.

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This is the 11am forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.  Dorian is now forecast to make landfall on the coast of East Central Florida as a major hurricane.

151450_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Just now, palmsOrl said:

This is the 11am forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.  Dorian is now forecast to make landfall on the coast of East Central Florida as a major hurricane.

 

2 hours ago, NOT A TA said:

That would be bad for my roof. If it hits here as a cat 2 I see big blue tarps in my future.

We're definitely trending in the wrong direction on storm intensity.  Hope everything holds up down there TA.  Still a few days until we get our uninvited guest, so still lots of question marks.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Too soon to know, but watching it closely from this coast :wacko:

Still traumatized from being *just* east of Irma's eye wall. :badday:

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Naples (inland), FL - technically 10a but more like 9b in the winter :hmm:

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1 hour ago, palmsOrl said:

This is the 11am forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.  Dorian is now forecast to make landfall on the coast of East Central Florida as a major hurricane.

151450_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The cone predicts where the center of the storm tracks; the middle is not necessarily the highest possibility for landfall i.e it could make landfall anywhere from Miami to Savannah. 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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The middle of the cone is where the experts at the NHC think the center has the highest probability of landfall at that particular advisory.

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Not exactly the Labor Day I had envisioned...

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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I’m really wishing I had hurricane insurance right now. :bummed:

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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Hopefully, it won't be that bad for you in Tampa RedRabbit, even if the center passes near or over the Tampa area.  This is due to the effects of extensive land interaction weakening the storm.  Still, 40-65 mph sustained winds could happen in Tampa, with gusts well over hurricane force.  That last sentence is just my humble opinion based on current forecasts.

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1 hour ago, palmsOrl said:

Hopefully, it won't be that bad for you in Tampa RedRabbit, even if the center passes near or over the Tampa area.  This is due to the effects of extensive land interaction weakening the storm.  Still, 40-65 mph sustained winds could happen in Tampa, with gusts well over hurricane force.  That last sentence is just my humble opinion based on current forecasts.

Thanks buddy! :greenthumb:

I actually wouldn't mind if it hits Tampa. The house I'm in the process of buying is rock solid and can take whatever Dorian throws at it. My place in Nokomis, however, is an older woodframe building so I don't want Dorian going anywhere near Sarasota County. lol

How is your preparation going in Orlando? All ready for the storm now?

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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  I live within earshot of the surf at the beach , even though I am on the mainland .   The Halifax   " river" ( ICW ) is about 450' east of me .

I live in an 80 year old wood frame house , and a neighbors 350 yr old Live Oak partially hangs over my house .

I do have some elevation , so flooding is not a problem , but the high winds certainly are . 

It seems that the it is likely that the storm will hit the coast of Florida somewhere to the south of me , but some chance remains at this time

that it could be directly here as well .  Regardless of that , the winds will be unimpeded straight off of the water . I will begin boarding my 18 windows up this afternoon .

  Not sure yet of further action .

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If the hurricane follows the center of the projected path, it looks like it is going to come right through Lakeland.  I'm expecting a CAT 2 by the time it reaches here.  Time to make room for everything in the garage and trim up some of the loose growth on the plants so it doesn't whack the house.  I'm not worried about flooding where I am at, but a lot of places in Polk are already brimming on flood stage and this will make their issues a whole lot worse.  Each time I check the projections, they get worse.  Now they are figuring Dorian will approach CAT4 strength by the time it makes landfall.

The Ledger - Hurricane Dorian

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Latest update indicates it will come ashore (maybe as a cat 4?) in West Palm, cross the State (and Okeechobee?) and exit over Cape Coral. Shades of Charley, which blasted up the Peace River and kept its cat 4 status inland to Arcadia and beyond. Let's all hope not but now's not the time to freak out if you're in the path.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Pinecrest Gardens is in full hurricane preparation mode. We got badly hit by Irma and are still recovering.

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I might as well take up Knitting, between Lethal Bronzing and one Hurricane after another, I'm ready to quit Palm Gardening altogether.:rant:

Satellite Beach is located in Central FL.  Just Below Cocoa Beach, with Melbourne just across the Causeway. Many of the Models show it coming here.  Been moving plants in all morning. Why Bother? 

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Warrior Palm Princess, Satellite Beach, Florida

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CNN and ABC are reporting it may reach CAT 4 before making landfall.

201908291120_HurricaneDorian_projection.png

201908291210_HurricaneDorian_projection.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Any bets how long this roof will remain if a cat 4 hits? I hate insurance companies. They started 2 years ago after Irma by saying my damage didn't meet the deductible. HA! Roof repair estimates were more than 5 times the deductible. I don't think the roof will last long even if it's only a cat 1 experience here.

20190829_120509_zps45ipyikr.jpg

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The Euro model has this coming in a little north of Ft Lauderdale, going out into the Everglades and making a sharp right. From there it rides up the center of FL and exits back into the Atlantic around Jacksonville.

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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53 minutes ago, NOT A TA said:

Any bets how long this roof will remain if a cat 4 hits? I hate insurance companies. They started 2 years ago after Irma by saying my damage didn't meet the deductible. HA! Roof repair estimates were more than 5 times the deductible. I don't think the roof will last long even if it's only a cat 1 experience here.

20190829_120509_zps45ipyikr.jpg

Needs replacing for sure. My husband says looks like you have an underlayer of shingles from the previous reroof so we assume it doesn't leak. He suggests you glue down loose shingle with Gorilla Glue or apply roofing tar under/around damaged shingles to hold them down. Gorilla Glue dries faster. It may look terrible but if it holds.....

After the storm, go for a metal roof. Costs more but holds up to storms longer and better than tile or shingles.

But do something now.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Needs replacing for sure. My husband says looks like you have an underlayer of shingles from the previous reroof so we assume it doesn't leak. He suggests you glue down loose shingle with Gorilla Glue or apply roofing tar under/around damaged shingles to hold them down. Gorilla Glue dries faster. It may look terrible but if it holds.....

After the storm, go for a metal roof. Costs more but holds up to storms longer and better than tile or shingles.

But do something now.

There's just a single layer. In a normal situation hubby would be right. But in this case the shingles won't matter if a cat 4 hits. That whole section of roof structure would likely be gone, long story. I've been waiting on settlement of the insurance claim to start structural repair of the section in the pic because it all needs to be done at the same time.

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2 hours ago, NatureGirl said:

I might as well take up Knitting, between Lethal Bronzing and one Hurricane after another, I'm ready to quit Palm Gardening altogether.:rant:

Satellite Beach is located in Central FL.  Just Below Cocoa Beach, with Melbourne just across the Causeway. Many of the Models show it coming here.  Been moving plants in all morning. Why Bother? 

I'd stick with palms.  I haven't bought a sweater or a blanket off of you yet, so I don't have any basis for comparison, but I'm guessing you're better at growing selling palms. :)   This too, shall pass.

5 minutes ago, NOT A TA said:

There's just a single layer. In a normal situation hubby would be right. But in this case the shingles won't matter if a cat 4 hits. That whole section of roof structure would likely be gone, long story. I've been waiting on settlement of the insurance claim to start structural repair of the section in the pic because it all needs to be done at the same time.

@NOT A TA Please tell me that you're not staying there for the storm ... 

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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5 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

But closer to the coast and a bit stronger perhaps than Matthew was.

Perhaps. I really thought this wasn't a storm I would have to worry about other then rain after it winds itself down and moved north.... now I'm not so sure. :unsure: 

Still a very fluid situation and anyone from Miami to OBX should be keeping a close eye on it. 

 

 

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I'm concerned it may cross over Lake O or cross the Everglades. Both may re-energize it or keep it from losing strength. In 2004 Charley followed the Peace River (very wide but not as wide as Okeechobee) and stayed a cat 4 well into Central FL. People who fled SE from Tampa - Charley's original destination until it made a last minute right turn - ended up facing the storm's fury anyway. In 2005 Wilma came ashore at Naples, then crossed the Everglades and used that warm swamp water to regrow from a cat 2 to cat 3. People who fled across the State to Palm Beach got slammed. What Dorian could do with the heat energy from Lake O and/or the Everglades gives me chills.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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1 hour ago, RJ said:

Starting to look like it might skirt the east coast. (similar to Mathew) 

 

 

Yep, the later euro model now has it riding the whole east coast from about Ft Lauderdale to Georgia where it heads inland. 

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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Fortunately for that scenario Meg, the preponderance of the model data has stayed clustered on a Florida East Coast landfall between Stuart and New Smyrna Beach, with some outliers farther south into Southeast FL and some in Northeast Florida or even Georgia and the Carolinas.  The computer models are also experiencing the "windshield wiper" effect, going north overall for a run or two then south of the mean for a run or two and back again.  Still, on average, it seems that the most likely point of landfall will be along the East Central Florida Coast.  But nowhere from the Florida Keys to North Carolina should let their guard down.

Also, some models have started depicting a northward turn on or inland from the coast, either riding north up the coast or up the spine of the state.  By tomorrow night we will be within three days of landfall and the track through that time (should) be pretty reliable.

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Thank you for sharing this subsonicdrone.  Looks like according to this model, gale force winds should arrive in the Orlando area around noon on Monday.

This storm sure isn't in a hurry to reach Florida.  It was like watching Hurricane Jeanne for over a week after the models came into agreement that it would loop out in the Atlantic and come all the way to Florida.

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