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La Nina or not?


happ

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A strong/persistent westerly flow in the upper atmosphere has delayed/sheared tropical activity [even at the equator  :o

Good news for hurricane weary & drought concerns.  

Excerpt from WxAmerica

Also of interest is the Madden Julian Oscillation, which could have impacts on both extent of hot air in North America (unlikely) and tropical cyclone development (possible). In summer, the effects of the MJO are usually most pronounced in the southern hemisphere. But if a Kelvin wave is strong enough (and the signature most recently seen along the eastern coast of India and Sri Lanka certainly is), two shifts in the atmosphere can occur above the Equator. One is strengthening of the polar jet stream by convective outbursts that stretch poleward. This may induce strong ridging in the eastern Pacific Ocean, enough to induce a profound -EPO or +PNA configuration with resultant cool advection into the U.S. Another is warming of the equatorial ENSO sectors, nullifying the forecast of a La Nina episode. This latter consequence MIGHT shut down easterly flow in the Atlantic Basin, with reduced chances of formation of named storms. For all of this to take effect, the Kelvin wave would have to survive and reach the International Dateline (minoring out is probable upon passing below HI and reaching the Galapagos Islands). As it stands now, a prediction of a weak to occasionally moderate -ENSO (cool) event still seems probable, a middle ground between computer models which proclaim a coming strong La Nina and the more-or-less neutral appearance seen on SST charts in recent days.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on

Sunday, June 24, 2007 at 6:40 A.M. ET

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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The British weather service is calling for a less active season than the Nat'l Hurricane Center.  Hopefully, this comes to fruition.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Ray,

I'm with you!  I would like to have a couple of really heavy rain tropical waves but no hurricanes.  I am still weary from the 3 in the last few years.  I don't want to go through any more!  I am a native and have been through 8 and that is enough.

Palmmermaid

Kitty Philips

West Palm Beach, FL

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