Winter down under

[Tyrone]

I’m not a certified climatologist but personally I doubt there will be any snow on the Stirlings. It doesn’t feel cold enough. The cold front is still to come through but it was 10C at 6am and plenty of cloud cover and that’s basically too warm for anything to happen. Maybe a bit of frost north of the Stirlings around Amelup and Borden tomorrow morning as the high starts to move in. Unless of course there is a tremendous cold pool coming up from the south in the next few hours then I suppose it’s possible. One things for sure. The town will be going mental with heaps of tourists. The roads have been very busy this week.

[greysrigging]

I'm not a certified climatologist ( but I can lift heavy things and read climate stats )....
"September at Darwin Airport ( Northern Territory of Australia.

The 3rd hottest ( av max since records began in 1941 ) 33.9c ( record 34.1c in 2016 )
The 3rd wettest ( since records began in 1941 ) 86.8mm ( record 129.8mm in 1981 )

Average high - 33.9c ( Long term average 32.6c )
Average low - 23.7c (long term average 23.0c )
Monthly Average - 28.8c ( long term average 27.8c )

Highest maximum - 37.0c on the 8th
Lowest maximum - 31.9c on the 20th
Highest minimum - 25.5c on the 24th
Lowest minimum - 21.1c on the 13th

The maximum exceeded 35c on 8 days during the first half of the month ( also a new record for September )
Top 5 hottest days ( by highest daytime high )
37.0c Sept 8
36.7c Sept 6
35.8c Sept 9
35.6c Sept 15
35.5c Sept 14
Top 5 coolest nights ( by lowest overnight minimums )
21.1c Sept 13
21.7c Sept 12
21,7c Sept 11
21.8c Sept 7
22.0c Sept 6

Total Precipitation - 86.8mm
Total Measurable Precipitation Days - 7
Rainiest Day - 49.8mm ( Sept 20 )
Darwin Airport 1941-2020 Mean Rainfall - 16.5mm on 2.4 days. Median Rainfall 6.1mm.
The daily rainfall of 49.8mm on the 20th was the highest daily Sept recording since 1981."
 

[greysrigging]

6 hours ago, Tyrone said:

I’m not a certified climatologist but personally I doubt there will be any snow on the Stirlings. It doesn’t feel cold enough. The cold front is still to come through but it was 10C at 6am and plenty of cloud cover and that’s basically too warm for anything to happen. Maybe a bit of frost north of the Stirlings around Amelup and Borden tomorrow morning as the high starts to move in. Unless of course there is a tremendous cold pool coming up from the south in the next few hours then I suppose it’s possible. One things for sure. The town will be going mental with heaps of tourists. The roads have been very busy this week.

Mate, if this snow event doesn't happen....well the blokes predicting it are definitely amateurs.....

[greysrigging]

Alice Springs has the following forecast

October 3- 37/19- mostly sunny, windy
October 4- 35/22- becoming cloudy, windy
October 5- 14/13- cloudy, rain, possible heavy falls (80% of 15-50mm)
October 6- 14/11- cloudy, rain at times (60% of 1-8mm)
October 7- 20/11- cloudy
October 8- 23/11- sunny
October 9- 25/13- sunny

Record low maximum for October is 11.7C, very unlikely to beat this.... But still incredibly impressive range.

[Tyrone]

31 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Alice Springs has the following forecast

October 3- 37/19- mostly sunny, windy
October 4- 35/22- becoming cloudy, windy
October 5- 14/13- cloudy, rain, possible heavy falls (80% of 15-50mm)
October 6- 14/11- cloudy, rain at times (60% of 1-8mm)
October 7- 20/11- cloudy
October 8- 23/11- sunny
October 9- 25/13- sunny

Record low maximum for October is 11.7C, very unlikely to beat this.... But still incredibly impressive range.

Yoyoing temps. That’s the desert in spring.

[Tyrone]

Well I need to get on with weed spraying as all the rain and good temperatures for weed growth has made them grow before your eyes, but, the wind will just not give up, except from about 9pm until 6am when it goes still. I’m not weed spraying at night. Anyway in the last week I have managed to jag a couple of hours before sundown to get into it. However you don’t spray if it’s going to rain. We’ve just had constant wind with driving drizzle for ages and I’m sick of it. Looking forward tomorrow evening and Sunday evening before it gets pitch black may be ok. Provided it doesn’t rain on Saturday night. Forget solar power down here. Wind is where it’s at. 

[greysrigging]

12 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

Well I need to get on with weed spraying as all the rain and good temperatures for weed growth has made them grow before your eyes, but, the wind will just not give up, except from about 9pm until 6am when it goes still. I’m not weed spraying at night. Anyway in the last week I have managed to jag a couple of hours before sundown to get into it. However you don’t spray if it’s going to rain. We’ve just had constant wind with driving drizzle for ages and I’m sick of it. Looking forward tomorrow evening and Sunday evening before it gets pitch black may be ok. Provided it doesn’t rain on Saturday night. Forget solar power down here. Wind is where it’s at. 

Haha... Albany....lol !
You have confirmed what the rest of WA ( and Australia ) thinks....
It is an almost unique climate in Australia .......

[Tyrone]

14 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Haha... Albany....lol !
You have confirmed what the rest of WA ( and Australia ) thinks....
It is an almost unique climate in Australia .......

My Juania are almost an easy grow here. They’re very happy.

[greysrigging]

So how did the Stirlings do ? Any snow flurries ?

[greysrigging]

From Weatherzone.
Big Spring Swing in WA

Temperatures have taken a dramatic dive over southern parts of WA as a cold front pushed out the hot air on Friday.

Southeastern parts of Western Australia sweated through their first 40 degrees day in 6 months. Forrest reached a top of 40.2 degrees on Friday, about 13 degrees above average for October. This paired with gusts of up to 63km/h and a relative humidity at 7% led to catastrophic fire danger conditions, with a peak Fire Danger Index (FDI) reading of 118 recorded.

Nearby, Warburton also cracked the 40 degree mark while Eucla reached a top of 38.3 degrees, its hottest October day in 4 years. FDI’s reached extreme at these locations, with FDI’s of up to 83 recorded.

Image: Observed temperatures and FDI’s on Friday afternoon

However, a cold front rolled through in the late afternoon and is bringing a big drop in temperatures today, with the southeast coast expecting to reach about 20 degrees.

Further west in the wake of the front, Bickley (4.1 degrees), Perth Airport (3.7 degrees) and Swanbourne (6.8 degrees) all recorded their coldest October mornings in at least 11 years. Wandering was the coldest statewide, recording a freezing -1.0 degrees this morning, with some light snowfalls recorded over the Stirling Ranges.

Image: Infrared Satellite and observed temperatures on Saturday morning
Another front will push up from the south on Sunday, leading to another round of cold mornings across the south. Wandering and surrounds may dip below freezing once again on Monday morning.
 

 

 

[sandgroper]

Was cold and windy in Perth yesterday, I'm not sure what it got to but I think it was only around 16c. I think today is supposed to be similar before getting more pleasant as the week progresses.  Don't think there was any snow on the Stirlings as it wasn't mentioned on the news, if we do get any snow down there the news splashes it across the telly everywhere as a lead story but I didn't see it mentioned anywhere.

[Tyrone]

It only got to 15.1C here yesterday.  ABC news on the weather section said there was some snow on the Stirlings but they may have assumed that. Social media normally picks those sort of things up and considering the hundreds of people up that way to see it, if it snowed even a flake there would be a picture. But none. It would have been a miserable cold walk up there only to get wet and see no snow. 

[Tyrone]

24C on Wednesday down here. Woo hoo.

[greysrigging]

Preliminary cold records ( October ) in the Red Center. The 9.00am tomorrow reset notwithstanding, there has been, or is going to be, some new records

Alice Springs ?, no, todays 13.0c, despite being Melbourne like, is not an October record....this dubious honour occurred back in 1968 (11.7c ) Even so, today's max of 13 is an astonishing 18.1c below the long term average at the Airport.

And the old Post Office site recorded a 11.1c day way back in Oct 1910 !

Other records today... Kulgera ( most likely sub 11c, but data unavailable atm ) previous record 13.6c

Uluru - 14.0c ( 18.4c below average )

Kintore - 17.2c ( 18.7c below average )

Territory Grape Farm - 16.8c ( 16.5 below average )

Ernabella - 10.7c ( 17.7c below average )

There may well new records set again tomorrow.

[Tyrone]

Had 1C here this morning. Very cold for October. High directly over us.

[cbmnz]

On 10/6/2020 at 12:14 PM, Tyrone said:

Had 1C here this morning. Very cold for October. High directly over us.

Hard to believe it could get that cold at your latitude in October. Your latitude over here is frost free year round,  because the land is only 20km wide. I know logically that is why but it skews perception.

[Tyrone]

39 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

Hard to believe it could get that cold at your latitude in October. Your latitude over here is frost free year round,  because the land is only 20km wide. I know logically that is why but it skews perception.

Yes, this area is an anomaly of anomalies.

Just been looking at the long range climate forecast for the November to February period and although the west coast doesn't really get much from the La Nina, down here it appears we will. So we are looking at wetter weather and warmer temps through that period, especially minimum temps. That sounds awesome to me, and it should hopefully repair much of the frost damage from July 12th 2020.

[cbmnz]

La Nina *should* mean a summer with plentiful rainfall here too, which will mean a great growing season. Everything hinges on it as right now YTD rainfall well behind even last year's total and that was second  driest in 115 years of records.   Been at this address 18 years and every year in winter the lawn would get a bit soft May to Sept. This year right through have been able to place a stepladder anywhere, even the shaded parts and not make a dent.

 

 

 

[Tyrone]

14 hours ago, cbmnz said:

La Nina *should* mean a summer with plentiful rainfall here too, which will mean a great growing season. Everything hinges on it as right now YTD rainfall well behind even last year's total and that was second  driest in 115 years of records.   Been at this address 18 years and every year in winter the lawn would get a bit soft May to Sept. This year right through have been able to place a stepladder anywhere, even the shaded parts and not make a dent.

 

 

 

We’ve had close to average rainfall for the first time in a while, with way above average August rainfall and above average for September. The tap has been turned off now and October is drying out. Last week the front lawn was dying in places from standing water and you couldn’t mow it. It would have been better to grow rice in it. Anyway today we will mow it but I would still get bogged in it if I drove on it. Maybe next week I might be able to drive on it very carefully. Time to make sure all my reticulation is doing things right.

[greysrigging]

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/remarkably-cold-week-in-australia/532655

[sandgroper]

Spring is here.

[Tyrone]

We’ve got almost monotonous but pleasant weather down here now. Basically 11,12C minimums and maximums of 19C for the whole week. Also it’s not blowing a gale anymore. Mild weather compared to Perth. We will get what perth is getting now by about Xmas. 

[tropicbreeze]

Although some of the Top End got a lot of rain recently, the majority of us got very little. Haven't been getting the 10mm every few days as hoped but I'm in the middle of building so it's not too bad. It's been heating up these past few days although towards the end of the week we're expecting some rain again.

[enigma99]

Guys haven’t been following the winter down under, curious was it above or below average?

[sandgroper]

4 hours ago, enigma99 said:

Guys haven’t been following the winter down under, curious was it above or below average?

It varied depending on which part of Australia and New Zealand you were in.

[Tyrone]

7 hours ago, enigma99 said:

Guys haven’t been following the winter down under, curious was it above or below average?

I think on a broad scale it was warmer than average. That being said I only got one frost event and it was a record frost for me. Minus 2.5C. Rainfall was close to average with a very wet August.

[cbmnz]

About two weeks early but had the word frost in forecast for first time at the weekend.  Had two cold mornings 1.8C and 0.5C, but both were after 19C days so took all night to gradually drop to that then the sun rose. Not a hint of damage even to exposed banana leaves and now looking like a nice mild run for next two weeks of 20-21C days and 8 to 10C overnight which  I will happily take in May. Means I can leave the bunch of Lady Finger bananas on the plant for another couple of weeks.  This was 6 weeks ago so they have had some time to grow.

 

 

[sandgroper]

I was going to say "cool bananas" but that would just be silly.

Edited May 4, 2021 by sandgroper

[cbmnz]

That reminds me of the 90's along with "choice"  :)

but the bunch were indeed cool but crucially,  not frozen, bananas two days ago. I did wrap just the bunch just in case.

[Tyrone]

19 hours ago, cbmnz said:

About two weeks early but had the word frost in forecast for first time at the weekend.  Had two cold mornings 1.8C and 0.5C, but both were after 19C days so took all night to gradually drop to that then the sun rose. Not a hint of damage even to exposed banana leaves and now looking like a nice mild run for next two weeks of 20-21C days and 8 to 10C overnight which  I will happily take in May. Means I can leave the bunch of Lady Finger bananas on the plant for another couple of weeks.  This was 6 weeks ago so they have had some time to grow.

 

 

I hate the 5 letter "F" word.

Your bananas are nice and exposed there to further cold. Do they ever get melted to the ground? How cold do you get in winter? They look a ton better than my banana plant.

[cbmnz]

I warp it with frostcloth in winter. Kept the mainstem alive for 4 years by doing that, until it finally fruited this March.. Managed to keep about half the leaves on the two pups to stay green through  this past winter using frostcloth which I'm sure helped it to take off again.

[cbmnz]

Get a handful  of -2 to -3C frosts every winter. Never have a winter when don't drop below -2C.

[Tyrone]

4 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Get a handful  of -2 to -3C frosts every winter. Never have a winter when don't drop below -2C.

That’s cold. Your bananas look amazing considering the temps you get. It’s a credit to you for protecting them like that.

[Tyrone]

I can feel like we are a long way on the descent into winter now. Short daylight hours, overall lowering of the temps. Yesterday we had wave after wave of drizzle and heavy rain at times. It made mowing the lawn a bit unpleasant. We’ve had around 70mm of rain in the last 6 days so the grass had just gone mental. But being so wet the catcher wouldn’t work so it was a slash only event.

[cbmnz]

Had  -0.1C this morning, banana still looking good, must be right on the limit before damage.

[Tyrone]

1 hour ago, cbmnz said:

Had  -0.1C this morning, banana still looking good, must be right on the limit before damage.

Owww. That was close. Any ice on it?

Our coldest morning so far looks like possibly next Friday, when a high clears the sky at night. Forecast so far is for an 8C night but we likely will go down to 5 or 6C which is OK. We've had nothing but cloud cover. It makes the days chilly but at night it seals in a bit of warmth.

[cbmnz]

No. But a peice of wood I was using to weigh down a cover in different part of garden had ice on it. Can tell if banana leaf has frozen, it goes a different shade of green, no sign of that this morning.

[Tyrone]

We are definitely on the on-ramp to winter now and about to cool down. We have nearly 100% cloud cover now for the foreseeable future. The grey and gloom is now going to feel unending. 

[Tyrone]

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hail-in-wa-with-snow-a-chance-this-morning-/534165

Theres still hail in shady areas from this 4am event sitting solid at 12.30pm. 

[sandgroper]

Cold in Perth today, only expecting 16c but the good thing is we are getting rain.