Silas_Sancona Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 After a very dry start to the rainy /snow season, and resultant extreme, extended end to the fire season across Cali and the Southwest, the first in what looks to be a series of storms is currently rolling in across Nor. Cal. and the PAC. N.W. atm. While it's looking like most of it will miss Southern CA. and out here across the low desert for now, the current forecasts are still suggesting subsequent storms should finally bring rain back to both areas and snow up in the mountains. If some of the more aggressive forecast models pan out, much of SoCal. could see at least 3" of possible rainfall towards the end of the month, with higher amounts / possible accumulating snow up in the mountains. Further north, if the same model runs pan out ( various model runs of both the GFS / FV3-GFS over the past few days ), some areas around the Bay Area / further north could see upwards of 5-8+" of rain.. welcome for sure, but could also create potential issues for parts of the region effected by recent and earlier fires this year.. Something to watch closely. I'd also watch fire- effected areas of SoCal. closely also, just in case more rain falls than currently suggested there. Another thing that started showing up on the same models this morning worth mentioning, ( FV3-GFS 12z run, for now): While the West coast has been somewhat shielded from any serious cold so far this year ( going back to the start of 2018) That may change around the start of December. Model just mentioned is picking up onto driving a cut off low down the west side of the Sierras along with a nice pool of cold air ( 540mb line and lower) down over CA., than across AZ, N.M., W. Texas, and Northern Mexico / Baja. While, at this point, such a suggestion would be considered a *wish cast*.. Really, anything beyond 5-7 days out usually is, It's interesting enough to mention, just in case. With the Holiday Season kicking into full gear tomorrow, we all know how busy things can get.. Better to be ahead of the game when it comes to anything we have that might need some protection in the event of frost or freeze. ..This is your *heads up* One things for sure, Tomorrow will be a much nicer Thanksgiving compared to last year here.. Forecast high tomorrow for Phoenix is 72F.. It was 87F last year. Evenings stay in the 40's, maybe some 30's next week. While just a thought, for now, i'm suspecting this might be a hint of what could turn out to be a cooler / wetter winter here, which means more snow for the Colorado River basin / Mountains up north / east of us here. Crossing my fingers, we really need it.. Where it's currently raining, Enjoy it!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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