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Welcome rain now, ..Potential cold to kick off December later??


Silas_Sancona

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After a very dry start to the rainy /snow season, and resultant extreme, extended end to the fire season across Cali and the Southwest, the first in what looks to be a series of storms is currently rolling in across Nor. Cal. and the PAC. N.W. atm. While it's looking like most of it will miss Southern CA. and out here across the low desert for now, the current forecasts are still suggesting subsequent storms should finally bring rain back to both areas and snow up in the mountains. If some of the more aggressive forecast models pan out, much of SoCal. could see at least 3" of possible rainfall towards the end of the month, with higher amounts / possible accumulating snow up in the mountains.

Further north, if the same model runs pan out ( various model runs of both the GFS / FV3-GFS over the past few days ), some areas around the Bay Area / further north could see upwards of 5-8+" of rain..  welcome for sure, but could also create potential issues for parts of the region effected by recent and earlier fires this year.. Something to watch closely. I'd also watch fire- effected areas of SoCal. closely also, just in case more rain falls than currently suggested there. 

Another thing that started showing up on the same models this morning worth mentioning, ( FV3-GFS 12z run, for now): While the West coast has been somewhat shielded from any serious cold so far this year ( going back to the start of 2018) That may change around the start of December. Model just mentioned is picking up onto driving a cut off low down the west side of the Sierras along with a nice pool of cold air ( 540mb line and lower) down over CA., than across AZ, N.M., W. Texas, and Northern Mexico / Baja. 

While, at this point, such a suggestion would be considered a *wish cast*.. Really, anything beyond 5-7 days out usually is, It's interesting enough to mention, just in case.

With the Holiday Season kicking into full gear tomorrow, we all know how busy things can get..  Better to be ahead of the game when it comes to anything we have that might need some protection in the event of frost or freeze. ..This is your *heads up*  

One things for sure, Tomorrow will be a much nicer Thanksgiving compared to last year here.. Forecast high tomorrow for Phoenix is 72F.. It was 87F last year. Evenings stay in the 40's, maybe some 30's next week.  While just a thought, for now, i'm suspecting this might be a hint of what could turn out to be a cooler / wetter winter here, which means more snow for the Colorado River basin / Mountains up north / east of us here.  Crossing my fingers, we really need it.. Where it's currently raining, Enjoy it!!

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Good to hear the West may catch up on H2O! Long term stuff is always interesting. Like Vegas Odds.

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What you look for is what is looking

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Looks like we're going to get a brush with the 30s tomorrow.  Time to start watching for coconut killers in the forecast:

 

201811260000_Weather.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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6 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like we're going to get a brush with the 30s tomorrow.  Time to start watching for coconut killers in the forecast:

 

201811260000_Weather.png

Love your day time temps. Still in the 80's. Nice! But looks like I have you beat by 1 degree tomorrow night. My 39 against your 38 :)

Capture.JPG

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8 hours ago, Estlander said:

Love your day time temps. Still in the 80's. Nice! But looks like I have you beat by 1 degree tomorrow night. My 39 against your 38 :)

It's been pretty chilly there huh? I checked weather stations in Destin/Santa Rosa Beach and it got anywhere from 34-36 degrees there this morning.

I visited home this Thanksgiving- left Orlando in shorts and t-shirt and had to put on jeans and light jacket by the time I got to NW FL. I actually realized I missed the colder weather and the change of seasons we get up there more- it was cold enough to do a firepit in the backyard.

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Yes, we had a pretty cold night with a low of 37F/2.8C in my yard. Gonna be in the high 30’s again tonight.

 

 

Edited by Estlander
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26 minutes ago, Estlander said:

Yes, we had a pretty cold night with a low of 37F/2.8C in my yard. Gonna be in the high 30’s again tonight.

I'll take the "L" by one degree tonight if it means I'm only in the 30s one night instead of 2. ;)  If it hits 38F at the airport, I should bottom out at 41... we'll see :) 

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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