What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

After a nice lead up to it,  ..Time for a little ride as a new season ..and March... kicks off...



Yea, they're out there ..but we'll see about any " hinted at by various model run " rain chances ..locally at least... while this cool-ish / unsettled first half of March Wx pattern setting up across the west sets in..  More likely? ..a couple more sub 45F mornings ..and maybe one day the barely reaches 60F..

CA? While it looked like it's influence might throw in the towel as the month started, with a bit of a burst in MJO activity ( Red colors right over 120W ) ...You'll be adding -at least-  a little more rain to the bucket over the next 8-14 days.  We'll see if that also brings us a few spring showers..

Next " Inactive Phase " looks pretty impressive, and stretches all the way to under CA / to Ecuador  which typically = N. Pacific may start to shut down, possibly for the season..




More hints that the unsettled start to March should settle down somewhere between the 17th -20th  ...if the current OLR forecast thoughts pan out as suggested





ENSO status and suggested forecast as we start Spring:



FEB. thoughts from the IRI: 




Final PV check for " Winter " 25? :  ....SSW on the way  ..and Perhaps???  an < Early? > final warming..

After staying quite strong all winter, as we reach March, the P.V. says:  .." I'm your Zero "



WX is cool site:



Tomer Burg's Strato Page:




ECMWF Weeklys ..Yesterday's data..    Goodbye P.V.






Check on West Coast SSTs  via SOTO as the warm season begins...   Still average to slightly above avrg. anomalies right off CA.. Still quite warm a little further offshore




..And basin- wide..   N. Gulf of CA also running a little warm for this time of the year ..Can it maintain itself for another few weeks until the Pacific starts to settle down allowing the Gulf to start warming more?? ..Would be a really good sign for the coming summer if so, esp if the current " warmer in the north / cooler in the south " dipole maintains itself thru the middle of June. 

[Foxpalms]

On 2/26/2025 at 5:26 PM, Arecaceus said:

Neanderthal museum is not part of the city and at higher elevations. Don't know what fairytale zoo is 😂 Usually it feels colder in more rural areas and it often is. My garden is located in the south of the city but the airport station also recorded I think 17-19°C so not much difference that day.

Last August I remember cologne city center was fairly warm at night but when travelling to Dusseldorf airport it was quite a bit cooler.

[Foxpalms]

Yesterdays low was 3.5c/38.3f due to the cold air mass. High was was 13.5c/56.3f with 39% humidity. UV index was a 3 with crystal clear skies all day. Everyday the temp has been overachieving the forecast. In sun trap areas of the garden such as 6ft away from the house it was getting into the mid 60s, microclimates definitely make a big difference.

Forecast looks good for the next week. With a warmer air mass coming in and with the sun getting stronger everyday it could easily be even warmer than forecasted.

[Foxpalms]

The forecast has been upgraded again. Today is running above the forecast so I'd imagine it could be even warmer. Crystal clear skies again today.

 

[PAPalmtrees]

I think spring is here to stay well at least I hope lol.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 39.2f/4c yesterday and a high of 14.5/59.9f with 29.8% humidity.  Today is forecasted to be around 15c, so I'd expect around 15.5-16c.

[PAPalmtrees]

its Currently 54°F with Thunder and lightning storms but next week is going to be really nice

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 68F under a stained glass cealing of Cirrus.. on the wy to somewhere in the mid / upper 70s later,  cooler side of that if the clouds get any thicker..

Another decent day tomorrow as the next storm on the map edges it's way toward AZ..

Skeptical of the actual totals suggested but storm anticipated to pass through sometime on Friday may offer the best " decent " rainfall totals for the region since ......Quite some time ago.   Same idea for snowfall up in the higher reaches of the mountains.. We'll see of course.



After a chilly day Friday, temps quickly rebound to around 80 ..before the next suggested storm in the current forecast passes through.

Some model runs keep it reasonably strong as it passes, others over the last 24 hours, seem to be hinting at a track further north.

Beyond that, We'll see about the storm suggested for the end of next week.  It too may shift further north than is currently suggested as the overall pattern may undergo yet another transition right as Astro. Spring begins.. 

Likely one of those overly enthusiastic  " one and done / toss in the trash " model run but 00Z run of GFS last night was dangling the possible return of 90s in the forecast sometime after the 18th..   We'll see..

[sandgroper]

Currently 26c at 6.00am heading for a warm top of 39c.

[Foxpalms]

High of 60f/15.5c yesterday with 40% humidity. Mostly clear skies however a very thin layer of cloud during the morning slightly suppressed temps. What was surprising was raf lakenheath where they had perfectly clear skies to the north East reached over 16c with 19% humidity which is very low for this time of the year. 

[Than]

Looks like real spring and calendar spring will coincide this year here. This week has been all sunny and warm and will remain so for another few days at least. Maximum of 18 C / 65F today and minimum of 3 C / 37F. The weekend will be warmer apparently. No rain expected.

Today I had to remove spidermites from my Colocasia and it's only beginning of March!!! 😫

[Foxpalms]

Yeterday had a low of 41f/5c with a high of 18.2c/64.8f. humidity was 41%. The same thin layer out clouds suppressed temps during the afternoon hours. Where the skies remained clear all day it almost reached 20c. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A drippy n' dreary Cult 45F out there on your Friday, with some actual wet stuff falling from the sky as a compact, but decent storm rolls on through state 48..

While skies should clear a bit thru the afternoon, temps won't recover much ..Today at least..

Tomorrow and the rest of the weekend ahead look nice.. 14+ deg recovery tomorrow,  mid 70s on Sunday ..82F by the start of next week  ...as storm #2 approaches.. 



We'll see about the suggested rainfall totals w/ that one  ..and / or storm #3 towards the end of next week.

Regardless, A couple more decent rain events, sprinkled between quick warm ups this week, potential for a bigger warmup beyond the 17th, + only a couple mornings that could reach into the uppermost 30s / lower 40s = will push everything to wake up a bit faster..



Still keeping an eye on how things look after St. Patty's Day..   P.V. Collapse / Major SSW still on the way  ...Absolutely no avoiding that..

How this effects the weather pattern across the west for the 3rd and final weeks of March?  = Wx models need a little more time before they start latching onto any trustworthy potential scenarios  involving the SSW / P.V. Collapse..  FTM, other than teasing a hint here / there, none of the models are really " feeling it " so to say..

Have a feeling that by this time next week, there should be some better thoughts on how the last half of March / start of April might look.

 

[Palmensammler]

Here in southwest Germany it feels like spring.  Temps during the day of 17°C/63°F. Next week some showers but still like spring. 

Can't wait to start digging in the dirt.

Eckhard 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 11c/52f with a high of 18c/64.4f. slightly higher humidity today. Clouds suppressed the temps. Not a bad forecast for the next two days before the Arctic air mass moves in.

 

[Xenon]

Winter storm warning with heavy snow up north....

triple digits down south 😆

 

[Mazat]

in the community garden last week we had between -3.3 to -1.6 degrees Celsius/26.06 to 29.12 degrees Fahrenheit lowest temperatures only yesterday 0.1 degrees Celsius/ 32.18 degrees Fahrenheit so in the plus. The daily highs were 15.2 to 21.1 degrees Celsius/59.36 to 69.98 degrees Fahrenheit. Saturday was the warmest day. The differences between minimum and maximum temperatures are very large from our point of view.

[UK_Palms]

15C / 59F here at 4pm. After a run of 18C / 64F days here, the cold front is hitting now. A few parts of England reached 20C last week. It was nice while it lasted, but that is early spring for you. Back to winter again later this week it seems with the risk of overnight frost returning. Really looking forward to summer now.

[Silas_Sancona]

Wavering between 82 and 84F at 2:39PM under wall to wall sunshine....  With another 2 hours of daylight left, can we hit or briefly exceed 85F for the day?? ..We'll see.

Regardless, next storm on the maps reaches the deserts sometime tomorrow right around sunset, after another day of mainly clear skies before it rolls in and reaching the upper 70s / low 80s..



Dynamics associated w/ this system are just within the ballpark for generating some deg. of isolated spring thunderstorm potential as the bulk of forecast precip. reaches the area tomorrow evening..

Any rain lingering around after frontal passage later tomorrow  evening will be winding down / clearing out as the sun rises on Wednesday.. Enough clearing and we should reach the low 70s...


...Next storm arrives by Thursday and may also be positioned in such a manner to up the ante on thunderstorm activity just a hair as the cold front arrives..  Marginal opportunity for some stronger storms?  we'll see..

[Arecaceus]

The last week has been pure spring weather. Several days around 21-22°C and sunny days on end without a single cloud in the sky. Nor any wind. Nights have been pretty cold still. We even had some light frost in the morning a week ago. Tomorrow cold air roles in before it goes back up to spring temps after the weekend. After the dry February it's still very dry and the forecast doesn't promise much rain. I like that it isn't as wet as the last 2 years but now it's too little. Wildfire risk is already elevated. Today's high was 20.2°C and the low 2.9°C. ☀️☀️☀️🌡️🌴

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

With another 2 hours of daylight left, can we hit or briefly exceed 85F for the day?? ..We'll see.

Goal set....





Goal achieved...


Still 85F at 4:17PM..

[PAPalmtrees]

 77 in March definitely not complaining

[Silas_Sancona]

After a wild week of starting in the 80s / ending in the 50s, 50mph winds, dust, and the strongest, legit, monsoon season - esque thunderstorms i've seen -before May-  in at least 3 years on Thursday / drippy n' dreary end of the week  ...wall to wall sunshine at 8:59AM and a nice weekend ahead as we reach mid March..

Mid to upper 60s today,  mid 70s tomorrow and back to the upper 70s- low 80s by St Pat's Day..

As the 2nd -and final- half of the month kicks off,  Phoenix NWS morning discussion sums up where things appear to be headed pretty nicely..




Slight cooldown on Tuesday as another storm swings through the upper Great Basin/ Rockies, before the arrival of a much bigger warmup arrives by the start of 2nd place Spring ...Aka: Astronomical Spring..




While there are no guarantees of course, and the Time and Date 14 day forecasts do jump around about as much as the Wx Underground 10 day forecasts can,    if we do return to the 90s, let alone for 5 straight days,  ..and the current forecast thoughts are under - playing just how warm it could get at that time  ..Could we see our first " neighborhood " 100F readings for 2025??  ..before..  the start of April?  ..Let alone any " official mid / upper 90 deg. readings around the valley / region???



Guess we'll have to wait n' see..   


A little moisture in the ground  as spring gets going / welcome break from the overall dry pattern was nice, but,   now it's time for some heat.. 

Guar- an- tee   everything is going to jump out of the ground and get moving now... 




FYI:  Speaking of dust, captured on Satellite yesterday as the storm that brought storms and dust here on Thursday was scraping it's way east through the plains..   Quite an impressive sight to see such an extensive area of dust, let alone the smoke plumes from various fires reaching wayy up into N.E'rn KS. / far S.E.'rn Nebraska..


Is  also an excellent example of how,  depending on timing,  the spores of subtropical species of mosses, ferns and other stuff whose seeds can easily be transported by wind can be dispersed from Mexico or West TX.  to new areas beyond " known " range boundaries.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect 80F on your Monday, St. Patty's Day, at 1:13 ( PM ) with high Cirrus passing through..  Unless the clouds thicken thru the rest of the afternoon, should reach between 82 -84 before sunset..

Storm passing well to our north will leave us high n' dry, but pull temps. back to the lower 70s tomorrow and Wednesday..

After Wednesday,  the heat dial starts moving up..  If they don't end up returning by the weekend, 90s will be back by the start of next week..

As mentioned on Saturday,  The biggest question as March wraps up becomes .Just how hot could it get / how many back to back days in the 90s could there be before we reach April 1st..

Depending on current forecast thinking from Z, Y, or X website,  we could see anywhere from 2 or 3 days in the 90s ..to ...8, straight.




Morning thoughts from Time and Date's 14 day:




Back to several days at / above 90 in their afternoon forecast:





While some " earliest X or Y temp " record ( for the month of March ) have come and gone un- challenged,  not out of the question some late March temp records could be visited, esp. if we do officially reach 100F at any point over the next 5-9 days.






While they might not count " officially ",  " neighborhood " readings next week could definitely top some of the records on the chart above..  Would not even be shocked to see one or two 105 - 107F readings, if the hotter leaning / longer duration of 90 / 90+ highs forecast thoughts are the ones that actually occur.


Regardless, as things seem to be looking like right now, warm up likely won't be totally confined to AZ either, with a pretty good chance many places outside the deserts / parts of the state beyond S.Cal reach -at least- the 70s, esp. if the prevailing thought on the end of the month forecast holds and any storms in the forecast during that time stay further north rather than slipping further south into CA.

At the same time, some decent hints that spring rains will start to fire up across southern and eastern Mexico as March ends / April rolls in as well.. 

1 or two weeks of " Spring" tucked within  3 months of fore- summer ..in Spring  = that's the desert for ya..

For everyone else nearby, looking like a nice taste of actual spring as March closes out.  We'll see if it holds. 

[Foxpalms]

Next three days look pretty good. 70f forecasted for Thursday.

[Silas_Sancona]

Aside from the breezes, a pleasant 68F at 12:12PM ..Forecast says 71 will be the high for the day.. Thinking we'll beat it, by at least a deg or two, before 5:00..

After the sun sets, breezes diminish, and we're off to the races.. ..Starting with a bump up on Hump Day,  landing somewhere in the mid- 70s tomorrow, if not a couple degs warmer than that. ..


As thought,  at least for the moment,   WX Underground forecast going all in on really cranking up the heat by the start of next week..



Because the suggested highs for each day in these forecasts can be a deg ...or 3... off from the actual high,  " currently suggested " high of 97 on Tuesday could easily translate to 100.. Same w/ Wednesday. 

We'll see if ..or how much.. this changes by Sat. / Sunday.  Still, even if we only top out in the 94-97 range, ...that's still pretty hot for not even the start of April.

Of note too are the warm overnight lows above 60F in the forecast for next week as well.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 72 at 4:47Pm under wall to wall sunshine, as lingering breeziness from yesterday fades away...


    = Forecast from tomorrow  onward..



While a 10 -20% chance of anything is about a slim as it gets,  when good enough to mention in local NWS forecast discussions, that 10-20% chance, for the moment at least, = ..There's a chance



If we don't manage to pull it off next week, we'll have another ..possibly better.. chance at notching the year's first 100 right as April arrives.. Simply put,  ..With the exception of maybe far N. Cal, and the Pac. N.W., overall Wx pattern heading into next month is looking pretty toasty in all of today's longer range model thinking..




With the arrival of 2nd place < Astronomical > Spring,  comes the start of " Fire Rainbow " Season a couple days later as the sun reaches an altitude of 58deg or greater at noon.



Seen nearly year round in the tropics, Fire Rainbows  ..or more correctly,  Circumhorizontal Arcs ( CHA or CHzA for short ) are one of those " signs of Summer " that can be seen any time there is Cirrus present in the sky here in the U.S. during the warmer months,  esp. if the moisture that is generating the Cirrus is tropical in origin.. 

While the sight of one doesn't always signal the other, this particular optical phenomenon is often associated with summer Thunderstorm activity..

Chart below spells out where one can catch sight of this uniquely warm season Atmospheric Phenomenon, and where they are quite rare..



Added dots represent cities not listed on the chart:

Blue = San Jose / Bay Area, Sacramento

Purple = San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson

Orange = hermosillo, San Carlos / Guaymas, and Alamos in Sonora..

Sea Green = Tampa / Sarasota, and Miami

Turquoise = Cabo ( San Lucas ), Todo Santos, La paz, and Puerto Vallarta..

At such a low latitude, imagine CHAs are a pretty common sight in Hawaii most of the year..


A few examples:

Sarasota, FL. July '14




Here in the desert.. #1 and 2: From the old house, 8/ 21..  #3: From Boyce Thompson Arboretum 4/ 21..











A check on current Sea Surface temps via SOTO data as we reach the start of 2nd place Spring..


A little cool off CA atm due in part to recent storm activity stirring up the coastal waters..  Still lots of above normal anoms. further out..  W/ things looking like they're about to really settle down  -and heat up-  imagine the cool anomalies, esp. off S. Cal. won't hang around for long..

Significant heatwave setting up here and over N. Western Mexico in the days ahead / lack of  much N. w'rly winds blowing north to south down it ( helps bring colder waters to the surface ) should = Northern end of the Gulf ( of CA. ) should warm up again pretty quickly too.

Daniel Swain mentioned this in today's yt video check in about his thoughts on the pattern as we head into Spring and beyond.. 

Could be one of those years where there is less N.W.'rly driven winds, thus, SST's at the beaches may trend warmer / less influence from the marine layer thru the spring / into the summer ahead..

GREAT pattern ..potentially at least...  for anyone growing tropical stuff that frowns until the marine layer backs off in June..

Could this be one of those summers influenced by a marine heatwave ??  We'll see.. 


For now, if you're here in the desert, get your fans ( ..and BBQ's ) ready.  ...And don't forget to bring / drink plenty of water if out on the trails.. 

Also, be careful w/ anything that could ignite fires  ..Could be an active Fire Season ahead..

[Foxpalms]

High of 18.5c/65.3f.  currently 18.5c here at 10.57am today going for a high of 21c/70f.  It's been mostly clear skies though there were a few clouds present for half an hour 30 mins ago. If the skies remain clear we could see potentially even higher temps.

[Arecaceus]

This past week the temps have been rising from the cold intervening the week before. The last couple of days were back at around 20°C with today being the warmest and with that even of the year so far with a high of 24.8°C and a low of 6.7°C. Nights still quite cold with one morning starting just above 0°C earlier this week. Still no rain and almost no wind. Very bad air. Skies have been consistently blue with the first hazy (Sahara dust) clouds coming in right now. Therefore still quite warm with 18°C currently at midnight. ☀️🌡️

[UK_Palms]

12 minutes ago, Arecaceus said:

This past week the temps have been rising from the cold intervening the week before. The last couple of days were back at around 20°C with today being the warmest and with that even of the year so far with a high of 24.8°C and a low of 6.7°C. Nights still quite cold with one morning starting just above 0°C earlier this week. Still no rain and almost no wind. Very bad air. Skies have been consistently blue with the first hazy (Sahara dust) clouds coming in right now. Therefore still quite warm with 18°C currently at midnight. ☀️🌡️

You had 24.8C...? Seems a bit much that. The official station is Dusseldorf had 22.9C, so you had almost 2C warmer than that...?

I had 21.7C yesterday and 19.0C today. Both of us have been as dry as a bone though. One thing we can agree on. Some light rain finally arrived tonight after 3 weeks, but the wildfire threat remains extreme for us both. There are 27 active fires tonight in the UK.

[Arecaceus]

13 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

You had 24.8C...? Seems a bit much that. The official station is Dusseldorf had 22.9C, so you had almost 2C warmer than that...?

I had 21.7C yesterday and 19.0C today. Both of us have been as dry as a bone though. One thing we can agree on. Some light rain finally arrived tonight after 3 weeks, but the wildfire threat remains extreme for us both. There are 27 active fires tonight in the UK.

Yes. 2°C is not even much. Often the difference is more during days like these.

I'm slowly starting to hope for rain. I don't want to complain but I also don't want to start watering this early in the year.

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, Arecaceus said:

Yes. 2°C is not even much. Often the difference is more during days like these.

I'm slowly starting to hope for rain. I don't want to complain but I also don't want to start watering this early in the year.

The fires have been relentless here! Over 400 this week alone! The roads have been impacted even. 18 separate fire brigades involved tonight at the Marsden fire and 2,500 acres already scorched since it started at 2pm.

 

[sandgroper]

Currently 32c at 12.00 midday. The first month of Autumn almost over and looking forward to some cooler weather and hopefully some rain.

[Tyrone]

Forecast down here

[Tyrone]

4 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Currently 32c at 12.00 midday. The first month of Autumn almost over and looking forward to some cooler weather and hopefully some rain.

Did you get much rain last Thursday?

[sandgroper]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Did you get much rain last Thursday?

We got a bit here in jandakot but the hills got the majority, fortunately we didn't get any of the damaging winds and flooding that they received so although it would have been nice to get more rain I think we got away lightly compared to some.

[Tyrone]

2 hours ago, sandgroper said:

We got a bit here in jandakot but the hills got the majority, fortunately we didn't get any of the damaging winds and flooding that they received so although it would have been nice to get more rain I think we got away lightly compared to some.

I was in Thornlie at the time and it bucketed down. About 20mm. We got about 130mm here at my place. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty 87F at 4:37PM w/ passing bands of Cirrus... Mild night #1 ahead..  93-95F tomorrow under more sun than today..

Weather for the final week of March / opening week of April hinges on how far away we can keep any storms that try to roll into N. Cal / Pac. N.W. over the coming days..

Longer range thoughts have swung between another surge of heat as April arrives,  and a return to the low / mid 80s. w/ passing clouds and maybe a shower or two for the mountains  across N. AZ at times.

We'll see which scenario wins out.

For the moment, hot enough down here to start the week,  Flagstaff possibly cracking 70F on Tuesday,  and/or on Wednesday = " HOT " by " up on the Rim " standards. Minus the highest peaks, any snow on the ground up there atm = gone by Wednesday or Thursday..

WX Underground's current forecast:




Time N' Dates thoughts:



For Tuesday ..Will we hit the magic 100?, or wait a little longer to cross it, officially??  Morning or two cracking the 70F mark is on the table too.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

90F at 11:39AM

Several hours of wall to wall sun left = ..No way we're pumpin' the breaks at the suggested high of 92F today..

[Tyrone]

The nights here have been around 20C until early morning before sunrise where they drop to around 18C with RH in the 90% range this morning. Moisture and dew everywhere. Been very humid here all summer. Going for a top of 27C today.