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What is your current yard temperature?


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Posted

Currently 29c at 6.00am heading for a warm top.of 41c.

  • Like 1
Posted

10.30am and already 38c, might get a tad warmer than forecast. 

Posted

Currently 25ºF here in Greenville, NC. 10:50pm 

Its gonna be COLD this week. Probably the coldest week yet. It should drop to 22ºF tonight and this will be the coldest it got yet. 

Zone 8a/8b Greenville, NC 

Zone 9a/9b Bluffton, SC

Posted

 A cool-ish 49F at 12: 41AM on X-mass  -and Hanukkah-  Eve, headed for the middle or upper 70s later today before a passing dry cold front pulls temps back to the upper 60s - 71F for the rest of the week.

If they're lucky, a few spots up near the AZ / UT border might see a snow shower or two tomorrow night as tomorrow's storm slides by.



Screenshot2024-12-24at00-14-45ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.a9ef4ad3d9aea03f51279c4ed9eee69d.png


Final days of 2024 / opening days of '25 might see temps try to rebound a touch, but maybe not as much as was suggested by earlier forecasts..

Regardless, weather still lookin good for state 48 as 2024 gets the boot..

Posted

Currently a very pleasant 22c heading for a comfortable top of 24c, apparently the coldest Christmas Day in 30 years. Merry Christmas one and all, I hope everyone has a great day wherever in the world we all are.

Posted

current temperature in the community garden is 5.3 degrees Celsius at 1:02 p.m., location near Lake Constance,  412m,

lowest value -4.5 degrees Celsius at 8:05 a.m. this morning

Posted
18 minutes ago, Mazat said:

current temperature in the community garden is 5.3 degrees Celsius at 1:02 p.m., location near Lake Constance,  412m,

lowest value -4.5 degrees Celsius at 8:05 a.m. this morning

on the sheltered balcony at the same time

IMG_20241225_131958934.jpg

Posted

So far winter has been pretty normal and finally a lot drier than the last winters but it has been SO cloudy. I feel like this is one of the most overcast Decembers I can remember. Today was sunny all the way which was an exception. Had a high of 8.8°C and a low of 4.7°C. ☁️

  • Like 1

  

Posted

A cool n cloudy  ..but dry...  61F as another dry " cold " front passes through town.. 

Final weekend of 2024 looks ...Pretty darn nice..  


Same w/ how things appear to be headed as we reach NYE / NYD    ...Could we notch the first 80F high for the new year,  ...right out of the gate???  ..We'll see..


Screenshot2024-12-26at13-40-23ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.fde95413ebb5fe8611084842248f5163.png

Tucson as well.. where -at least- 2 days may reach or exceed 80F, if the forecast holds.   

Curious as to when they jumped from " Transitioning to 9b " on some new maps,  to a very mid / upper range zone 11- looking start of the new year..



Screenshot2024-12-26at13-39-53TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.437359891bc3228450d19f7422f355b2.png


Final check on what the MJO is thinking as 2024 ends..

  Not a lot of yellow / Orange " Active Phase " lookin' colors on that map between 180 and 120 West, Longer range map below the first, which now goes out to the first few days of Solar Spring in March, esp...  Now suggesting adding a 3rd contour to the High Pressure bias for the Pacific ( Dashed vertical lines ) too.   ='s a classic sign of intensifying La Nina..


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If the current statistical and dynamic OLR ( Measures % ' age of cloudy vs dry skies over the Pac. ) thoughts are correct,  any extra energy input for the parade of storms that has been marching into Cen / N. Cal ( ...and further north ) may come to a screeching halt in Jan. as the dry phase on these two maps reaches the far west Pacific.


Screenshot2024-12-26at13-54-49STORMSURFPowertoolsENSOQuick-Look.png.74c3fc53fc7a8cf376f8bc478fff1e1d.png


As has been the case since ........,  today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys are quite  warm,  esp. in the west,  all the way thru Jan / start of Feb.  right now.  Below normal precip bias likely stays put too...

Same with today's thoughts on the 10 and 14 day outlook from the CPC...

Perfectly cool with all that... :greenthumb:

Posted
On 12/26/2024 at 4:17 PM, Arecaceus said:

So far winter has been pretty normal and finally a lot drier than the last winters but it has been SO cloudy. I feel like this is one of the most overcast Decembers I can remember. Today was sunny all the way which was an exception. Had a high of 8.8°C and a low of 4.7°C. ☁️

This will be the cloudiest year on record for here. Mild so far this winter. Osteospermums still in flower.

  • Like 2
Posted

As per usual it looks like a mild New years Eve in London. Very mild on the isles of Scilly since the sea surface temps are still 12c. So far it's been a warm zone 10a winter and hasn't gone below 0c/32f.

Screenshot_20241228-011854_Chrome (1).jpg

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  • Like 2
Posted

Pleasant low of 61F (16C) tonight. A low pressure system moves across the Southern U.S. tomorrow & brings necessary rainfall to the Coastal Plains. Mild temperatures continue through New Years Eve; then a sharp cooldown is expected, beginning on New Years Day. Additionally, the week of January 6th contains a lot of uncertainty for the Carolinas & the East Coast at large.

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  • Like 3

Emerald Isle, North Carolina

USDA Zone 8B/9A - Humid Subtropical (CFA)

Posted

Currently 24c at 6.00am heading for a warm 39c on this first day of 2025.

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  • Like 1
Posted

Perfect afternoon right around 70, heading into a great night for watching fireworks.. if anyone decides to set em' off.. Regardless....

About as nice as it can get as 2025 gets underway...   Far cry from last year and NYE '23 ..at least in the showery and cool department..  Should be nothing to deter some man made sky fire this evening..


We'll see if the first 80F of 25 arrives by the end of the week. 


Screenshot2024-12-31at17-40-06ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.0cce8ec0bf6fecf9db5c3591ead87a62.png



Can Tucson reach / top 85? ..within the first week   of the new year??   ...We'll see..

Screenshot2024-12-31at17-41-57TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.11f88c2af0dde58b75a180378066ef58.png



As the Sun rises tomorrow, just 11 days left until added day length crosses the +1 minute mark, with just 18 days to go before mornings start getting earlier.

Using meteorological winter,  ..the only measure that matters, here at least..  If we're gonna see anything resembling winter ..it has 30 days to occur..  Once the sun rises on Feb. 1st,  " winter " 24 /25 in the desert is already 3 steps outside the exit door.. 

Even if we can still have a few mornings that can reach freezing, increasing influence of the sun angle is already quick to erase the effect of any late winter chilly mornings, esp. if it stays dry.

By Valentine's Day, .." Winter " is pretty much done..


46 days to go... :greenthumb:


As of yesterday, it has been 130 days since -any- measurable rainfall has been recorded in PHX ( or here at the house ).  ..Could we reach ..let alone surpass.. the record,  set wayy back in 1971  ( ...160 days... ) by the end of Jan???

We'll see..

Posted

55f/12.7c at 2am in London Jan 1st 2025. Another mild New years eve.

  • Like 1
Posted

Watered some cactus today.

With no rainfall of any significance since August, some of the plants that I never have to water in the Winter looked like they could use a bit of help. Still waiting for the first freeze.

Air quality has been pretty bad too. Wonderful temps though!

Posted

Supposedly it started snowing in parts of London a very small amount less than a half a cm before it turned to rain as the warmer wetter Atlantic weather started pushing away the cold front. However there's just rain here. Lowest temp tonight was 34f/1c. Temps currently rising.

Posted

A cool-ish  61F at 12:03PM as clouds finally clear and da' sun returns..

Minor shift in the Wx pattern for the week ahead  looks to bring some .......Wait for it......  closer  to...  Typical.....  -Gasp!!-  winter  weather  to AZ over the next few days.

Essentially, a brief wobbling of the overall hemispheric Wx pattern will allow for a stretch of inside slider type systems to dig far enough south ( ..or southwest ) thru the Great Basin to bring the possibility of  ..Gasp!  ...sprinkles... back into the forecast either tomorrow night, ..and /or again later,  ..depending on how long this taste of actual winter hangs around down here..

Might also bring a few inches of white death to the high country / ..maybe briefly terrorizing Tucson as well.. but it won't last.. 

As it looks right now, all in all, a few inches for the mountains / ..maybe 1/2" on the pavement for a couple hours one morning for Tucson ain't anything meaningful.  Forest fire up near Payson that had started a few weeks ago is still burning.. 


Taste o' winter  may also bring forth the possibility for the chilliest morning lows for the entire winter, though honestly,  we've already seen similar lows so no, if prone to doing so, ...don't start freaking out.   This is  ....Typical.....


Screenshot2025-01-06at10-01-35ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.cb863098c9735fccdb4f62def6630e83.png

....Don't rule out seeing the odd 27-29F reading(s) in the typically chilly outlaying cold pocket 'burbs ..maybe sprinkled around some neighborhoods a little closer to town too ..but nothing scary..

Same thoughts for Tucson ..for now at least...  We'll see how things evolve over the next 26-36 hours.. Let alone if any  White Death threatens them, lol 😂


Screenshot2025-01-06at10-04-59TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.c5c5b6f02584af097c54d7b1ab1bccd7.png


Of bigger concern for now is ..what could end up being... a pretty significant Santa Anna event for S.Cal. 

W/ absolutely no rain since ......  any fires that might ignite could get ugly pretty quickly, as they have done thus far this winter there..


Screenshot2025-01-06at11-31-43Thefirstofatleast2(maybe3!)livestreamsIplantohostthisweekwillbeMonJan6-ewind_fireweathereventinSoCalthisweekplusthoughtsaboutCA....png.2cbba592e78f7eddcb166ca6ae19988f.png



Daniel Swain will be live in a few hours ( 3PM,  Pacific Time ) to add thoughts to this part of the evolving pattern there.. and speak about ..weirdness... Yeahh, i've been hearing about it too..  oof.  ..Some folks desperately need to get a life, ...let alone help.
🤦‍♂️


Screenshot2025-01-06at11-32-03Thefirstofatleast2(maybe3!)livestreamsIplantohostthisweekwillbeMonJan6-ewind_fireweathereventinSoCalthisweekplusthoughtsaboutCA....png.d026384f48abdb864a912a75b20e0610.png


More later ..elsewhere..  :greenthumb:

Posted

Stuck at 62F under some clouds at 11:49AM..

We'll see if we reach the suggested high of 69 later  ...let alone if we'll actually get a ....sprinkle :floor2: later / overnight ( Highly doubt it )

Some minor adjustments to the forecast i'll mention later but, -for the moment, much more significant thing to be watched closely is the unfolding windstorm getting going over S. Cal.. 

While some have tried to down play it, as it's looking atm, this could rival or surpass the 2011 Santa Ana - related event experienced there which resulted in several million dollars worth of damage.  kicker this time around may be just how dry it is compared to that year ...Let alone how much new development has taken place since then.

Already hearing reports of preemptive power shut offs, and ..you guessed it, fire starts..

As his latest thread post suggests, Daniel Swain will likely have live Y.T sessions thru the day into tomorrow..


Screenshot2025-01-07at11-58-52Dr.DanielSwain(@weather.west)ThreadsSaymore.png.dbc4627cd2ca93e25c438d1d3bfc930c.png

For everyone out there, even if your specific neighborhood isn't really effected ( See Dan's posts / video from yesterday ), keep a close eye on this..

More later...

Posted

Awakening to a mild 58F w/ some clouds -and dust- hanging around, with winds out of the east / N. East... Despite sometimes threatening looking skies thru the rest of yesterday and overnight  -not  -a  -drop. Not seeing that anything was recorded in PHX either ....so the dry streak enters day 138 ..or 9.

Slimmest chance of a shower still hanging around in the forecast thru the afternoon as the cutoff low, now centered somewhere between San Felipe and Bahia de Los Angeles, BCN slips further south and east.. If we're lucky? ..maybe a drop or two falls ..whooo hoo, lol..


Of  -far more important-  concern is the wind /fire situation in S.Cal as the sun rises..  

Pre- dawn capture from the COD Satellite page shows a very unusual -and very dangerous situation.  Black dots on the map are current heat sensed signatures of the two bigger fires ..Eaton, near Pasadena / Palisades, near Pac. Palisades, Topanga, and Santa Monica..  Hard to see w/ mountain wave induced cloud cover obscuring it at times but the Hurst fire, up near Sylmar, also continues burning atm..


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Current evac. areas for the Palisades, Hurst, and Eaton fires via Watch Duty    

..Never heard of it?, hands down, the best app / website  for tracking fires -in CA.- or pretty much anywhere..


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Note the new blaze that broke out within the last couple hours ( Woodly Fire ) noted on the map laying out the evac. zones for the Eaton Fire. per a Watch duty reporter update just a few minutes ago, that fire has been contained after jumping Burbank Blvd..




As the title says, Daniel Swain should be back on air shortly ( 8AM PT ) for a morning update on the entire situation / thoughts on today's forecast out there. 


Screenshot2025-01-08at08-46-30OnWedJan8IwillhostaNEWlivestream(linkbelow)startingat8amPTtofurtherdis-readybecomeadevastatingwildfireoutbreak(severewindstorm)....png.7a26db2e4948023f756437b93df6a454.png

....More later...

  • Like 1
Posted

Quick evening update on the Fires...

While winds are  starting to back off, fires continue..  There was a new start ( Lidea Fire ) N.E. of Sylmar, but it appears crews were able to get a handle on it..

Current map from Watch Duty: On tonight's IR Sat map ( Not added here ) heat signatures from the bigger fires is still present, but much less in intensity -for the moment at least- this evening compared to last night / this morning..


Screenshot2025-01-08at18-59-58WatchDuty-WildfireMapsAlerts.thumb.png.01753344f8495fd0cbb1ef35a0424495.png


A snippet of what is being seen post fire, both from Pac. Palasides, and from Altadena .where part of Downtown has been destroyed..

Footage credit:  Christophurious,  and Michael Steinberg ( @norcalchaseing ) ..who has been tirelessly bouncing between fires for the last two days.. Hats off to this guy for providing accurate and non -stop, eye witness coverage,  ....well ahead of many other news reporters on the ground atm..  :greenthumb::greenthumb:


Screenshot2025-01-08at18-52-53Dontevenknowwhattosayatthispoint.PacificCoastHWYontheMalibuCoastlineunbelievable.png.cc62ff065e809a4d8fbeb6b6da9efc35.png


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Back on this side of the hill(s)  53F after as the last ripples of wave clouds clear out  ..and brisky breezes thru the day finally back off..

  • Like 2
Posted

Without the breeziness of yesterday, 60F at 2:23PM on your 2nd Thursday of 2025 doesn't feel so bad.. While the 70s won't be back until -at least- next Tuesday, today should be the coolest of the next 10 days.. Actually impressed to see a couple below avrg. days sandwiched between a very warm winter..

With the cooler days the rest of the week / into the weekend come the inevitable chilly nights..  While some elsewhere may yowl un-endingly about a few cool mornings this time of year,  ..it's January folks..  " Chilly " happens sometimes, whether we like it  ..or not....

Overall, forecast doesn't look bad at all.. sure we'll see some lower 30F mornings over the next few days ..W/ the normally cool spots dipping a tad lower potentially,  VERY dry around here..  Don't anticipate any issues,  thought the Adeniums might spend the weekend inside.. ...Or maybe i'll just leave em' be..  Not even bringing in the Royal P. seedlings, Gasp!

As long as the current forecast holds,  it's back to the " usual morning low range so far this winter "  of 38-mid 40s by this time next week.


Screenshot2025-01-09at12-20-19ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.32a37d0e806a572b1cc18a126c882abe.png


Tucson looks a little cooler ..with areas near the river and out by Agua Caliente, in the Tanque Verde area of the valley, potentially bottoming out in the 25 -29 range on the coldest mornings ahead.. Not bad ( ..and technically still within 9B territiory, ..Gasp, ..Again!, lol )

Screenshot2025-01-09at12-21-25TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.21bc8e9fdf8fa3664708d26b936f6f51.png


They also will emerge from the chill by the middle of next week..


Looking at the current point n' click from the NWS Tucson office, even the far removed from -any- urban influenced towns closer to the border looks reasonably warm  ..for being where they are located..

At the worst, Empire Ranch, where the main entrance to Las Cienegas is located,  Sonoita proper,  and Patagonia bottom out in the low 20s  ..with some high teens likely for the cooler spots in /around  Sonoita. 

Even high teens would be a touch on the warmer side ( ...Considering they are currently listed as Zone 8A and close to 5K ft in elevation )  If that is the only time they see any sub 20s this winter, that's pretty good.

...Will all be back to around ..or just above.. 30 by this time next week ..Unless something changes between now and then..



While some forecasts want to paint minimal, broad-brushed rain chances across parts of AZ over the next 10 days or so ..i highly doubt it happens.. But,  ya never know.. Dry streak continues  -unabated- for now..

Considering we had a couple fires break out east of the valley w/ this last dry and breezy system / Horton Fire up near Payson ..up on the Rim, continues to burn, despite the cooler weather, ..Spring could look ..interesting... this year ..if... it stays as dry as it may..



Overall, enjoy this tiny taste of winter in the desert cuz' a return to the warmth we've seen thus far this winter seems likely as the end of the month nears.  ..As it is looking currently at least..

By that time, we'll be adding a minute to each day ( Arrives by the 12th ) ..and overall days will be getting longer ( Last 7:30AM+ sunrise occurs on the 18th ) 


On a less than thrilled note, it's also looking like another Santa Ana -type wind event may be on the way for S Cal.. Unfortunately..  We'll see.


Screenshot2025-01-09at15-04-28Dr.DanielSwain(@weather.west)ThreadsSaymore.png.06e5adf207a5069eda372f9be1c33dc2.png


Beyond that, we have officially crossed into La Nina territory..  Deny it or not, Can't argue with the pros on the subject.   https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2025-update-la-nina-here

Posted

Min of 32.1f/0c on the coldest weather station on the garden (middle of the lawn) which lasted about 5 mins before the temp rose.  No visible frost. 83% humidity. 

Other than the 21st the two week forecast is sunshine every single day with the only rain on the 21st. On Tuesday temps are forecasted to return back to average of around 9-10c.

cold 850hpa temps over here at the moment whilst Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly seem to be avoiding most of this cold airmass. The isles of Scilly have been very mild so far this winter this warm during a cold period at the coldest time of the year!

The sun isn't strong enough yet in London for it to make much of a difference so sea temps even during the day make more of a difference however by mid-late February thats when the highs here tend to overtake Cornwall and the Scilly isles so long as the 850hpa temps are similar.

mildtresco.thumb.PNG.d2d2d0182f1378723cf86cfebf532cbd.PNG

  • Like 1
Posted

we had a low temperature of -0.4 °C / 31.28 °F at 7:54 a.m. in the community garden this morning and currently 6.1 °C / 42.98 °F with sunshine.
we hope it doesn't get as low on sunday and monday as the weather forecast predicts:

image.thumb.png.5c85e045166eea193990a61e4febd0b3.png

  • Like 1
Posted

A crispy clear 47F at 9:04Am ..headed for the low 60s later..

As expected, A slight downward shift in the forecast' lows for the next couple nights ..locally at least..  Nuthin scary but, watches for potential freeze issues have been expanded to include most of the valley / areas to the west and southwest for Sunday morning currently.  Won't be surprised if it gets extended to overnight Sunday / Monday morning..

Screenshot2025-01-10at08-55-19NWSPhoenix.png.70d55535c72be0254f4b69052c711aca.png

Current point n' click thoughts:

Screenshot2025-01-10at08-57-027-DayForecast33.31N111_89W.thumb.png.1f89b1215bd238fbedc49938daf16776.png

Current thoughts from W.U. :

Screenshot2025-01-10at09-03-58ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.c05625a794a87606291707a0ac398cd1.png

As mentioned above, nippy for a couple night, but nothing frightening..   Upward as next week moves forward.. before perhaps one last threat next weekend / start of the following week..   We'll see..




In contrast to the slight shift downwards up here, weekend forecast remains basically unchanged further south, even closer to the border..  I'd take this forecast in any zone 8A area..

Screenshot2025-01-10at09-32-467-DayForecast31.68N110_65W.thumb.png.2e7dd983ffbcaa9cc00efc39ee68c425.png


No advisories hoisted currently but some potential for frost present in the early -week forecast for typically chilly in January spots in the sheltered / interior parts of the Bay Area / Cen. Valley as well.. 

Like yesterday, very warm -for January-  upper 60s -lower / mid 70s forecast today out there, around the Bay Area at least..


In other news, yes, there was a minor 3.7 thud just off S.F..   As great as the meme is, it really should read: Hank = Non native <  most likely > Californians getting dramatic about a bump in the night.  Bobby = Native Californian's thoughts about said rumble in the night.. 


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Someone else checked in yesterday as well, with some wise advise for the B.S.'ers.  :greenthumb:

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Posted

After slipping to 30F / day #2 hanging between 34-31 around the greater valley ( cooler in the typically cooler spots ) ..for less than an hour ..W/ the exception of the expected 5' x 5' frost pocket out back,  absolutely no frost on the ground, or on neighborhood rooftops.. No icy crust on a couple containers containing water out there either..  

Back to 50F atm.. Headed for the low 60s later.  Chill abates as the coming week unfolds, before -maybe- returning for one last visit  late next weekend / start of late January, right as the sun starts rising earlier each day forward ..and the first big " Hint o' Spring " worth attending  regional event gets underway  ..AKA: the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show / Festival,  which will start next Saturday, on the 18th, ...and extend out into mid Feb.  Has always been the " Winter will end in 1 mile "  highway sign along the road to warmer weather arriving each year..  " Warmer weather " doesn't = 90s return, right away, though..


Screenshot2025-01-12at08-03-53ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.8f638378fd9957819a401c37ee38761f.png


Staying within it's overall suggested theme so far this month,  according to thoughts from the 00z GEFS 840hr  last night,  overall chilly break in an otherwise mild winter should be a memory by the end of the month..

MJO check in: .. Yep,  right in the middle of our  " opportunity for winter   Strong pulse of the Inactive MJO phase nipping at it's heels = weather turning mild ahead seems likely.


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Current Polar Vortex:    Strong like Bull, and likely stayin' resilient ....

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A couple side notes for the day:

For anyone interested / those who want to learn some things  ..from an expert,  ..rather than from arm chair theories spread on Face-plant,  tik tak and that other irrelevant social media platform...   Daniel Swain will be speaking in an interview done by CNN sometime today / this evening. 


Screenshot2025-01-12at10-55-08Dr.DanielSwain(@weather.west)ThreadsSaymore.png.1a4d0bf23afa1bfc39dd4b3c266aa180.png

He and his team of researchers also recently completed a -very relevant-  paper on Hydroclimate Whiplash that is worth diving into.. ..If you want to learn things..


Screenshot2025-01-12at10-55-42Dr.DanielSwain(@weather.west)ThreadsSaymore.png.e215b6351ef8fd9889fb62c42dd9410b.png




Also: ....To all of our brave firefighters, first responders, and aid workers in ..or en-route to... CA from the states,  Canada ...and Mexico...  A Grand   thank You  for your tireless work, determination, and steady hands in the face of adversity..  :greenthumb:

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  • Like 1
Posted

Another day of low 50s all day long today, this portion of the Florida west coast gets this way when the water temps are cold and winds are onshore. It has been a chilly winter, with one break of wamer days since thanksgiving (before New Years) and numerous days not getting out of the 50s. Some daytime highs set at midnight make that day seem warmer than it was too.  Looking forward to a pattern change by Feb, and glad to (so far) dodge a freeze.  Two days of near average temps this month and a few palms notice it, the Cristmas palm most of all with a lot of cold spotting.  The Bentinkia is also not happy but notnsure why; chill could be it since daytime highs have been lackluster even with sun.

Posted

 43F and headed for another brush with 32 come sunup..  As thought, frost / brief freeze potential good enough tonight that frost and freeze products are up for interior areas of the East and South Bay < frost > /  San Joaquin Valley < freeze > as well.. Nothing atypical for mid- Jan. though maybe a slight shock considering it was just in the 70s in spots up there a few days ago.. 

They'll also warm up thru the week, only to see the next frost / freeze threat return by the start of next week - briefly- .. 840hr GEFS still seeing an end to the chill soon..



At the same time, fingers crossed it doesn't try to rival last weeks' event,  next round of Santa Ana conditions are already prompting PDS advisories down south from Tuesday thru Wednesday..  Something to be watched closely again obviously.



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As for any rain chances as we end January / look into Feb.?  ..Don't get any hopes up..  N. Cal / Pac. N.W. ..really all of the west... looking drier thru -at least- the end of the month as well.

New Wx West blog post from Daniel Swain:


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Posted

Weather is all over the place here, warm for a couple of days then cooler, it can't make its mind up.

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Posted

After a few days spent in the 60s, a nice 71 at 1:40PM ..on the way to the mid 70s before sundown..  unlike the past few evenings, staying in the 40s .which will open to another day in the mid 70s tomorrow before backing off again as the next dip in temps rolls into town over the weekend / on Martin Luther King Day..

Depending on which forecast verifies, maybe one last quick frost /freeze threat for the valley / region next week..

W.U. forecast currently suggesting tacking on another sub 30F morning..


Screenshot2025-01-15at12-02-10ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.3ac13f9e267052ff0f233dd6f7a84c5c.png

While the current PHX NWS Point N' Click suggests we'll stay just above the low 30s..

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Either way? ..no big deal..   this weeks round of chill hasn't bothered anything ..except  ..wait for it.. the Old Skool Bougainvillea whose tops are a bit crispy.  Yanking them anyway, ..so i could care less if they get nipped. 

Beyond mid week, next week? ..we'll have to wait and see what lies ahead as January closes out and the final 28 days of Met. Winter begin.. Cool-ish pattern could hang around a little longer into Late month, if some model thoughts pan out..  or begin longer term moderation just beyond the current 10 day... Current ECMWF weeklys / GEFS 840 hour thoughts..

No worries regardless.  Overall days start getting longer by the start of next week.  Cross the " Sun setting after  5:50PM mark shortly after...  Also crossed the " coolest average temp " threshold yesterday   ..So,

Winter 24/25?  your days,  ...at least here in the desert, will be slipping away quickly ...shortly..



For those wanting to learn some things, let alone expert perspective, Mike Steinburg ( norcalstormchasing ) and Zeke Lunder ( The Lookout ) will be coming together  live this evening to discuss various aspects of what Mike witnessed during his coverage of the fires last week..


Screenshot2025-01-15at14-05-08MichaelSteinberg(@norcalstormchasing)ThreadsSaymore.png.91cc7af882f1649363a15c511fc787f7.png


Daniel Swain is currently live on Y.T. discussing the current status of the fires,  and longer term forecast thoughts..
 

 

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Posted

A pleasant 60F at 9:41AM, headed for one more day in the lower to mid 70s  ...before  temps pull back a little for the weekend ahead / next week..

Looks like our NWS office fixed last night's forecast fumble mentioned elsewhere ..so, sorry winter lovers, no Flurries in the forecast here..

If it doesn't flip back to what was suggested yesterday,  might escape another brush w/ frost as well  ..before the next warm up nudges it's way into the area by next weekend.


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All in all, not a bad look as the half way point of  " Winter 24 / 25 " passes into history  :greenthumb:

Posted

Reasonable 65F at 4:06PM...   Stayin ..reasonable... as the weekend ends.

Week ahead lookin' pretty good too.. or now, Coolest day looks to be Tuesday / Wed. Morning, before headed back into the 70s by next weekend.. 

May be one last good cool down left in the tank around the 26- 28th time period when we might add a couple more low 30F mornings to  this side o the winter's totals, but,  we'll see.. 


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Beyond that, as we reach the start of Feb   -and the final month of Met. Winter? :greenthumb:    :greenthumb: = hints of warmer days i'm seeing building in by that time.

On the same note,  now at day ...149?  w/ out any rain. 

Despite the ? marks added to the current 10 day forecast thoughts,  honestly lookin ......dry...   thru the remainder of the month,  so, ..Chances are getting quite good we will tie / exceed the #1 spot of 160 days w/out rainfall in PHX,  before  January ends.




Additionally, starting tomorrow morning,  no more late sunrises / Overall days get longer from here onward..  Dry as a bone landmass will start simmering shortly..


Screenshot2025-01-18at16-03-41SunriseandsunsettimesinChandler.thumb.png.9b50349374184e86178974120fc34825.png
 

Posted

Currently 27c at 6.00am heading for an unpleasant top of 42c.

Posted

38F at 7PM

-Chris

San Antonio, TX - 2023 designated zone 9A 🐍 🌴🌅

(formerly Albuquerque, NM ☀️ zone 7B for 30 years)

Washingtonia filifera/ Washingtonia robusta/ Syagrus romanzoffiana/ Sabal mexicana/ Dioon edule

2024-2025 - low ??WHO KNOWS??/ 2023-2024 - low 18F/ 2022-2023 - low 16F/ 2021-2022 - low 21F/ 2020-2021 - low 9F

Posted

Currently 36c heading for 38c. Got a bit warmer than forecast yesterday reaching 44c.

Posted

46F at 9:03PM, headed for one more morning at / below 32 for  the rest of the month ..as it looks right now..

After a cool and breezy afternoon that only reached 60, warming back into the upper 60s / low 70s for the rest of the week / up coming weekend.

While sub 32F mornings may end after tomorrow morning, with some mornings hanging in the mid 30s, won't be surprised if there are some chances for patchy frost thru the upcoming 10 days ahead.


Screenshot2025-01-21at20-34-06ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.050b44fd47d785619907cb7e6b1f5fad.png

Forecast chance for showers for S Cal ..and locally..  still on the board for the start of next week but honestly,  don't expect to see much, locally at least.

  That said, if any heavier showers impact burn scar areas around Los Angeles as the bulk of the rain chances there roll through, there is a minor  -but " watch - worthy "-  threat of debris flow related issues.

After a couple more days on the cool side as that cutoff low cuts across AZ and heads east later next week?   things across both AZ and CA could get interesting as January ends, and the final month of Met. Winter arrives.. 

While the forecast storm on the way may break the dry streak here and in S. Cal,  that break will be brief as none of the reliable longer term forecast thoughts offer up more rain chances beyond what may  -or may not-  occur at the start of next week.. At this time at least..

At the same time, the overall pattern that has been responsible for generating the repeated Santa Ana events and keeping things cool here may flip as a ridge tries to set up over the west as February begins.

While that would completely shut off any rain chances, as well as warm things up  -Quite a bit locally if some of the more enthusiastic model thoughts on the board today pan out-  a warm ridge setting up more over CA, NV, and AZ, rather than sitting just offshore as it has lately,  would reduce  -or completely eliminate-  the pressure gradient across the southwest that has promoted the recent wind events. At least for the start of the month.

On the other hand, a big ridge setting up over the west that could raise temps 10-15+F above average region - wide could  spell a quick end to what little snowfall is on the ground in a lot of places.

We'll see how that scenario shakes out over the next few days..

 

  • Like 1
Posted

Currently 29c at 6.30am heading fir another top of 40c.

Posted

71F at 3PM under wall to wall sunshine on the final Sunday of the month..  ..while S. Cal enjoys some widely scattered, but much needed  rainfall that -so far- isn't causing too many problems.

W/ heavier rainfall expected to arrive by this evening across the area, fingers crossed no serious issues arise before the rain heads out by tomorrow afternoon.

While suggested rain and snow ( in the mountains ) totals from this storm should provide some relief from just how dry things are out there right now, that relief may only be temporary..  ****  See the CA / AZ winter thread for my early musings for next month,  and the start of Spring 2025..


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Will we see anything here in the valley as this cut off low passes by / while briefly hung up in eastern AZ / Western N.M. Tuesday and Wed???  ..We'll see..  Right now, if we do get anything, rainfall totals aren't looking impressive at all.  That said,  predicting exactly what a cutoff low could do can be tricky.  ..So we'll have to wait and see if our dry streak is ended, or we reach and continue adding days beyond the current #1 spot of 160 days..

Regardless, cooler ..with maybe some sprinkles around / snow for the mountains  for the start of the final week of January.  no frost threats, though i won't be surprised if lows slip a couple more degrees for both Thursday and Friday mornings ..Compared to what is currently forecast.

Further west?  there are frost / brief freeze products issued for the Bay Area, and San Joaquin Valley for tonight - roughly mid week..  San Jose / South Bay may bottom out right around 30F for the coldest mornings while places like Fresno may not even drop below 32F ( Current point n' click forecast thoughts )

Those chilly mornings should moderate by the end of the week.

No frosty stuff predicted currently for S. Cal as the week gets underway, but, i'd watch the forecasts, just in case a night or two in the lower 30s tries to sneak into the forecast for any areas that can run a touch cool in the mornings this time of year.



AS February rolls in next weekend?? ..We'll see if it holds ..or gets yanked again but,  start of next month could kick off with a decent warm up locally.

We'll also see if the famous rat sees an early spring next Sunday morning, or not.  Not that it's thoughts on that subject really count here..  In the Desert, February's arrival = winter's exit has already began.

Posted

Currently 50f/10c with 66% humidity and sunny. Can hear loud thunder to the west of London which shorty will be coming in.  The two previous days have had low humidity for this time of the year with the humidity being 55% yesterday and 41% on Saturday. High so far today has been 51f. 

Posted

Cooler than yesterday, some clouds around ..and a vague scent of rain in the air -somewhere- nearby..  Thus far, no drops at the house ..nor across a lot of spots on this side of the valley. A little rain earlier in neighbors on the west side.. 

Looking at today's satellite..  can see how the cutoff low has stretched out over the area rather than remaining more circular in shape as it slowly works it's way east..  This will direct a majority of any moisture being drawn into the area from S. Cal and the Gulf of CA  -that could generate showers-  more upslope, to be wrung out over the mountains north and east of the valley..

Lack of high cloudiness / " Popcorn " look to cloud cover developing overhead w/ this storm indicates any showers are being driven by daytime heating / sun, rather than being driven by other factors that would help generate rain ..at this point in time at least.  Despite only being the end of January, has been enough heat that some of the showers have contained a few flashes / rumbles at times..


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While shower chances hang around in the local forecast thru at least tomorrow night / early Wednesday, won't be surprised if we don't see more than a few drops since the best dynamics for generating showers will continue shifting north and east as the circulation works it's way toward and into New Mexico over the next 24-38 or so hours.. 

Snow will fall in the mountains, esp as the storm reaches eastern N.M. and directs some wrap around moisture at eastern AZ, but accumulations don't look to amount to much in most areas. Won't be hanging around for long either if it warms up as much as is currently suggested later..

Clouds around + sitting under the " cool pool " ( directly under where the low pressure circulation is located ) for the next couple days  =  daytime highs only reaching the low 60s thru Wednesday around the low deserts.


At the moment, after a cool start to the week,  could the upcoming weekend ahead / opening days of February usher in our first taste of mid -spring heat???


Screenshot2025-01-27at13-00-37ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.98eb00461096ad535d451d2d48aaf47c.png



Screenshot2025-01-27at12-59-59TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.c3c264694a05700cf2dcb50dea99eaf9.png

...We'll see if the currently suggested mid / upper 80F highs for both Chandler ( .and PHX of course ) and Tucson hold, but, pretty strong area of High Pressure may slide east off the E. Pac. and make this cool end of January look like a distant memory pretty quickly if the start of next week is as warm as it could be.. ..at least for the first 3-5 days of next month.

S. Cal will slowly warm back up as the week progresses, but it may not  get quite as " hot " out there as we might as the start of next week arrives..  Something to watch.

Regardless, after one last dash of  " winter " as January ends,   Nice taste of spring awaits as February arrives..   :greenthumb:

 

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