What is your current yard temperature?

[Tyrone]

A cold minimum of 5C last night with a forecast max of 20C. A cold night for November. 

[Tyrone]

Last Friday was a humid 30C. Today couldn’t have been more different. Min of 6.5C and a 17C max with not a glimpse of any sun. 

[Silas_Sancona]

55F at 7:24PM

After a cool  -and dry,  here at least-  start to the month,  back to some of that " Perfect AZ Wx in Fall " weather..   Rain " hint " at the end of the 10 day?  doubt it  ..but we'll see.    I say ..Keep it dry..  ....Until late June '25.

Compared to the current 10 day from the NWS,  WX. U. outlook's thoughts are running a little cool on how warm it may get later next week.









While the last couple storms  ..on top of the man - made stuff they've been laying down...  have created enough snow for some of the ski lifts at AZ Snowbowl up in Flagstaff to open today, -the earliest opening ever according to some,  some of it will likely melt over -at least- the next week as the high country, along with the deserts warms and any real snow making storms that might pass through the region aim more at the northern Rockies rather than bringing much additional snow to N. AZ  next week.

Low / mid 80s here mid / late next week = mid 40s to possibly 60 up there  ...as the forecasts are looking currently...




 

[Silas_Sancona]

A no complaints 77F at 3:25PM after briefly hitting 79 about an hour ago..   Low 80s tomorrow, before a brief cool down as a dry storm passes well to our north.

Headed into the middle of the month?  Can't ask for better weather in the desert at this time of year.. Warm enough for a little sweat while on a hike, cool enough at night for a fire on the patio..  ...And if what is seen by most of the longer- term outlooks pans out, after another "cool" down as we approach Thanksgiving,   it may stay  ..perfect..  as we head into the start of Meto. Winter as December kicks off..

We'll see exactly how " cool " it gets here..




Storm that  ..might..  reach far enough south as it swings thru ( -or under- ) AZ will probably not bring any rain chances ..locally at least.  It may bring something to far  E. AZ, NM,  and points east as it quickly heads from S. NM to the upper Midwest early next week.  Other than that blip on the map,  looks dry for now across the area.  Perfectly fine with that. 



Today's musings regarding current weekly 2m Temp / Weekly mean Surf. Temp forecasts from the ECMWF Weeklys    ..Thru Dec. X mas eve eve = 6 weeks..


2m Temp thoughts:





















Weekly Mean Surf. Temp thoughts:


















Current Dec. Temp outlook thoughts,  pulled from today's Blog update by Judah Cohen over on AER:









Shorter and longer- term MJO Phase check: 

Shorter Term:   Decent Inactive phase inbound.. = Blue / Purple shades on the map.




On the longer- term diagram, the purple circled area represents a window of when the effects of the next  suggested  Active Phase might influence the WX in the US.  Note that the " Active Phase " colors are weak,  and penned in on either side by shades of blue ( Inactive Phase ), esp at 120Lon.



Possibility of another decent inactive phase setting up by the end of Jan / start of Feb is a little stronger on the map today too..


***  As mentioned previously elsewhere, thoughts from this map, this far out,  can wax and wane daily / weekly   ..So,  like any other forecast that extends beyond 5 days,   take what you're seeing  -atm-  w/ some salt.



 

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool -ish 57F at 10:38AM under clearing skies.. 10% chance of ..Spit = nada for " rain chances " as the current storm passing through slips east well south of AZ..  Same storm will probably cause all sorts of issues once it reaches the Cen / Southern plains tomorrow / Monday..

Coolest day of the current 10 day outlook is today.. upper 60s to low 70s return tomorrow, w/ upper 70s / low 80s back in action by late week next week as the Thanks giving week travel window opens..




Some model runs hint at another deeper diving trough which dig far enough south as it rolls up on the west coast to bring rain to CA ..maybe offer chances here sometime next week and / or maybe on or just after Thanksgiving,  but,  i wouldn't put much confidence in that yet as other model runs keep things dry here / showery at times in mainly  N. Cal. 

We'll see..


Despite a few cool-ish nights ahead,  the overall " warm / above average lean " signal  suggested by most current, longer- term forecasts as Nov. ends / December  ..and Meteorological Winter..  begins   is still on the maps as we start down the final stretch of 2024..

As always, ...We'll see how this actually plays out.





On a side note, the current 10 day forecasts from a few spots just south of the border..  Temps in the 70s as Thanksgiving arrives here would be nice enough.  80s ..to possibly flirting w/ 90 at times, in a few areas.. / lows in the 60s and 70s  = pretty toasty.

Kind of wild to think both Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta may see more rain ( if the suggested chances on the maps pan out down there ) than we have thus far this fall / winter season too.



La Paz, BCS:




Cabo:




Mazatlan:





Puerto Vallarta:

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 72 at 12:05PM  Headed for the upper 70s to low 80s around town later..  

Despite the series of potent storms slamming the Pac. N.W. / N. and parts of Cen CA over the next few days ...staying dry and warm here ..for now at least, as Txgvng. week gets underway..  

As it is looking atm, Staying mild thru -at least- Thanksgiving, then maybe pulling back to the upper 60s.. Suggested chance of rain?  ..We'll see..




Beyond that? perhaps something to watch as November wraps up and December begins..

If summer brings on the " Fantasy Hurricane " model runs,  Winter is the season for those frightful ..and freezing.. fanciful model runs..  today's 12Z is a good example of that.

Despite what stands out in most current model output, today's GFS 12Z decided to go extra bold on unleashing an early season outbreak of arctic air invading ..not just the west, ..but quickly advancing east ...and south... as well..




Looking at other model output < Individual runs that go out to about Dec. 5th currently > ...ECMWF, EC-AIFS, for example,  neither  show the same outcome,  so,  ..We'll see if this turns out to be one of those " one and done "/ whack- a- doo  GFS  model scare - cast, or something that hangs around in future runs, and needs to be eye balled a bit more closely.





Digging around a bit more,  yesterday's update from the CFS v 2 also isn't seeing a major continent - wide outbreak of cold in it's current 10, 14, and 3 / 4 week outlooks..  We'll see if that changes tomorrow ..or later..

10 -14 day outlooks:









3 -4 Week outlooks:





For now, staying mild,  with plenty of potential for good Sunset / Sunrise viewing opportunities ahead here in the desert..

[Silas_Sancona]

Can't ask for a nicer Thursday afternoon in November around town and down in the Old Pueblo ( Tucson )..  






















Stayin nice for now, temps. maybe pulling back a little by Thanksgiving Day / Black Friday..



November update from the CPC ( 90 day outlooks ) out today suggests... What you see is more than likely what lies ahead over the coming months..

After 2 pretty wet winters, local reservoir levels are in decent shape ..so a dry / mild winter, if that is how it goes, shouldn't cause too much trouble..

Obviously, the big reservoirs, Powell and Mead, aren't in as great of shape, though the last 2 winters helped raise the water levels in both a little -for now.


If we don't see anything more than the trace of precip recorded thus far at Sky Harbour by the end of November, we will be tied with both Nov. 2017, and Nov. 2020 for the least amount of rainfall recorded during the Autumn months..















Not posted, but looking at today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys? ( Go out to Jan. 6th ) ..Essentially the same picture being suggested by them also.

Only difference compared to it's thoughts from a few days ago is areas east of the Rockies might see a " here today / gone in a day or two " -type cooldown sometime around / just after the start of Dec..

Forecasts being Forecasts,  Pass the salt please   ...We'll see what happens..

[kinzyjr]

Currently a balmy 53-54F throughout the yard.  Downtown is in the mid-50s.  Take a look at the temperature differences outside of the more urbanized sections outlined in green vs. urban Lakeland (diagonally encompassed in red), KBOW (58F - boxed in red), and the chain-of-lakes in Winter Haven (circled in orange).

[DTS]

Bro what just happened 😭 I know yall would hate this weather

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect 79F at 4:13PM after reaching 81F about an hour ago.. 

Aside from some neighborhood  mid / upper 80s locally,  area -wide " warm spot for the day " prize goes to .....Tucson.. 

Always interesting  how they can be a tad warmer than Phx at times this time of year..

Nice everywhere across state 48 regardless..






















As it looks atm, Staying nice locally too as we head down the last stretch of Nov, reach Thanksgiving,  and the first day of December ...and start of Meteorological Winter next Sunday.. 

More sun on Thanksgiving = could be upper 70s rather than the currently - suggested 75F.





Looking further out,  ..if it verifies as currently suggested..  10 and 14 day outlooks looking pretty nice as December gets underway.

Spigot may completely shut off across the Pac. N.W. and N. Cal  over the next week or so as well.










Today's 3-4 week outlook thoughts carry the same basic idea right up to the Friday before X-Mass.  ..Which fits in with what the GEFS ( 840 hour run ) is also currently thinking for the same time period as well.  

70s on X-Mass eve / day  ..and/ or to end '24 / Welcome in '25???    We'll see.

[Foxpalms]

62.6f/17c with 75% humidity now at 6.12am. feels like a summers night. This is a very mild night for late November here. 850hpa temps aren't even that impressive it's the extremely strong wind blowing a tropical Atlantic temps from the 20N's. The Osteospermums have opened up more flowers again tonight.

Whilst the Deciduous trees have lost the majority of their leaves many are already starting starting to produce new leaves. Let's see how early the daffodils come up this year.

[Foxpalms]

High of 64.5f/18c with 63% humidity yesterday. Strong winds all day and thick cloud cover.  Clear skies forecasted today but the tropical air mass has now gone with 2c 850hpa temps today. The high is forecasted to be 12-13c. 11c at 6.30am now.

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 62F w/ some thicker Cirrus passing through..

Clouds may hang around thru part of the day tomorrow, but still pretty nice regardless.  4-78 or so for " Bird Day "  Perfect weekend ahead for getting the holiday season lights up / other stuff done..

Maybe a a few passing showers / a little light snow in the higher elevations wayy up by the AZ / Utah / 4 corners border tonight / tomorrow w/ the current storm quickly passes by   ...Stayin' DRY down here regardless.



70s continue in the low desert thru the start of Dec. / start of Meteorological Winter / ..and the holiday season..  

How long can it continue???




Regardless, 12 days to go before the sun starts setting later, ( Even if the overall days won't start getting longer until Jan. 15th )  ...and just over 90 days until winter ends ( ...Using the March 1st. start date of Met. Spring.   Will probably be able to tie a bow on winter 24 / 25 and send it elsewhere locally by mid. Feb this year,  if the current pattern stays essentially  as - is. thru that time.  

We'll see..

 

[DTS]

Artic blast incoming for me-

[Silas_Sancona]

A       kind of Bird Day underway across state 48. 771, on the way to somewhere between 72 and 77F thru the afternoon under clear skies  ..for now.  some High clouds anticipated to move in later.

After another mild one on Black Friday,  the weekend ahead looks perfect..

Biggest question for the upcoming week will be: Can we / ..Will we  add any more 80 / 80+ highs to this years' tally???    With High pressure anticipated to rule  the roost thru ..at least the next 7 - 10 days.. current thoughts from the local NWS give PHX a 30%+ chance of seeing highs reach the 80 deg mark starting on Saturday..







While we've already passed the Avrg. last date for seeing 80 / 80+ temps ( Nov. 24th ), we've seen 80 deg. readings recorded as late as ...Dec. 30th.... ( ...Winter 1980,  i believe )  so,  ......We'll see how late they extend,  this year..

Regardless,  .Staying nice as December  -and Met. Winter-  get underway...  Cool-ish mornings, Maybe a tad cooler in the coolest spots outside town, /  maybe a deg or 3 warmer in the foothills ( that time of year when neighborhoods located just above the valley floor can stay a little warmer overnight )  .and perfect afternoons for working off today's Thanksgiving feast.

[sandgroper]

Currently 17c St 6.30am heading for a cool, cloudy top of 24c.  We have a few nasty bushfires burning north of Perth which were started by a car crash along Indian Ocean Drive on Monday.  Hopefully the cooler weather will help our fireos as they've had a hard time over the past week with warm, windy conditions. 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 51f/10.5c with a high of 58.5f/14.7c yesterday. 

It's currently a mild 53.6f/12c at 6.30am. Not bad for the first low of December.

[Silas_Sancona]

Low 70s at 11:29AM,  headed for the low 80s later... Will there be any records today??  ..We'll see..   Another opportunity for flirting with records tomorrow.



Overall Above avrg. temps continue for ...at least... the rest of the week before maybe pulling back to more typical December highs next week..  



Mild,  for December, back in / around San Jose too..





Really nice, if not bordering on a bit toasty  further south.. Can the upper zone 13 / lower zone 14 -esque lows hang tough thru January down there??  ..We'll see..




Been some " here today / gone tomorrow " - type whispers from various GFS model runs that try to bring some rain chances back into CA ( maybe reaching here as well ) around ..or shortly after.. the 12 -15th as some N. Pac. Jet energy tries to tap a robust burst of activity in the far W. Pac. and tries to punch a few holes in the predominant La Nina - fueled, solid Inactive MJO phase raging in the Pacific atm.  Regardless,  not something to hang a hat on.





.

[Silas_Sancona]

Now this is how you start off   " Winter " 

Neighborhood..  81F at 2:51 PM.


















Down the street:



















San Jose and surrounding:
























L.A. / San D. :

[CascadiaPalms]

35 F...very cold for Portland OR at 1015am!

[Silas_Sancona]

How do you top a nice start to the first week in December?  ..how about exceeding it the next day..

65 at 7:04PM, after reaching the low 80s earlier..


Warm enough today that Phoenix tossed one very old record in the trash   ...By 2 deg.




With that said, while it stays plenty warm thru the rest of the week, 80s may be done ..for now??,  ...or for the remainder of the year??  ..we'll see..

While it still may disappear from the forecast, looking more and more like a -mainly dry- trough that may sweep past well to our north  at the start of next week may usher in a couple days in the 60s by the start of next week ..possibly bringing a few mornings in the low 40s / upper 30s, ..before another warm up may ensue.



Few nights in the lower 40s / upper 30s,  in December?  =  Nuthin' to whine or worry obsessively about..  ...Especially when all the longer range forecasts atm are maintaining the overall above avrg lean to temps thru -at least- X Mass day.. ..and possibly well into Jan. ( Today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys ..2m Temp. Mean / Surf. Temps. charts to be specific. )



Not sure if it represents the early hint of some sort of pattern shuffling to be watched, or just odd data but the currently running 00z GEFS ( 00Z runs = 840 hours ) does present an interesting " Days above average / nights running average / below avrg."  -esque kinda' scenario setting up after Dec 26th for the West / Southwest.   Odd in the sense that -according to the data showing up at that time- any below avrg leaning mornings are confined mainly to the lower elevation areas of CA. and AZ while temps. stay above avrg on the same mornings in higher elevation interior /  Great Basin / Central Rockies areas  ..which i'd assume should also be leaning cold if such a pattern were to settle in. 🤷‍♂️ 

Regardless,   We'll see if those thoughts hold, or get pushed further out like it has in past days' 00z runs, or erased from that Dec 26th -start of Jan.  time frame entirely.

For now though, hard to beat the weather here in the deserts during the " coldest " part of the year..  When i checked, about the same as yesterday across CA ..which is pretty darn good for December too. 
































 

[CascadiaPalms]

25 F ...cold snap in Portland.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

65F at 10:24AM  headed for the upper 70s ( ..or maybe lowest 80s?? ) later on..

Pretty straight forward forecast headed into the 2nd week of DEC.. Warm the next few days, pulling back to near normal by next week.. Couple cool nights on the board but  nothin to worry about..  It's December... 




Only fly in the ointment in the near- term would be the broad, weak UPLL currently touring the AZ  / NM / Mex. / W. TX. border on satellite atm.. Highly unlikely but it could tap just enough moisture from Southern NM to fire up some light showers / maybe a weak storm or two in far E. AZ this afternoon.. Better odds of a passing shower / storm hang over Southern NM and W. TX. thru tomorrow however.

Notable too is the lack of much snow cover outside the Sierras / Rockies atm on sat as well.  We'll see how long that lasts..




As the area forecast below states.. perhaps a sprinkle or two makes it west of the mountains, ..or ( more likely ) it stays dry ..with some clouds working their way west from  the east around  sunset / overnight, and / or perhaps some distant flashes ...if any mountain storms get close enough to be seen from the valley.




Aside from that, and as advertised above,  still hints in the longer range models of a couple pieces of energy breaking off the main flow over the N. Pac. and bringing some rain to ~ mainly ~ N. Cal / maybe some sprinkles or light rain somewhere further south, and / or locally / light snow up over the mountains north and/ or east of the valley as one or both potential systems pass by.  ..and some cool-ish air at times for the deserts. 

Other than that, ..the " Nice WX locally " trend continues. 


As written on the 10 day, after Monday, Sunsets start getting later.. W/ just 40 -ish days to go before the overall day length starts getting longer..

[CascadiaPalms]

back to mild and 50F (10C)...cloudy, foggy and blah.

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice ..but fairly typical -for December- sunny n' warm side of mild 72F at 1:18 on your Monday afternoon..

Week ahead looks ...typical... with a minor hiccup come Wednesday morning in the form of maybe a little frost here and there after a dry cold front swipes the far N.Eastern corner of AZ as it passes well to our north and east and drags some " colder " air down into the deserts behind it..

In accordance with that hiccup, (  ..and to cover their As -sets i'm sure, ) local NWS here has issued a freeze watch for the typically colder far outlaying burbs n' sticks that can get chilly this time of year..



Looking at current thinking for lows on Hump Day Mornin'

** If inside the 202 loop here in the valley? likely won't drop much below 36F ..Any frost on the roof / shady grassy spots would be brief -at best-

** Burbs'  Just outside " the loop "? 34-37F possible

Further out ..in tha sticks? ( San Tan Valley / Queen Creek, Maricopa, Gold Canyon, Casa Grande, or the tribal lands ( Gila River ) ..You might come the closest to / see   a good frost / brief freeze threat.

Tucson and nearby areas would also fall under the highest frost potential category ..if it happens..

Quick look at some current Point N' Click forecast #'s for Wed. Morning:

Chandler = 36-38F

San Tan area = 33-36F

Casa Grande = 29 -33F

Tucson North ( Casas Adobes / Tohono Chul Park area of town ) = 33-36F

Tucson East ( Tanque Verde / Auga Caliente Park area ) = 32-35F

Tucson south ..Near Downtown / UofA / Tumamoc Hill = 34-37F

Glancing at two of my favorite " wayy out there " spots south of Tucson, Sonoita and Patagonia.. For a " cold spell, it really doesn't look all that cold down there..

Forecast suggested low of 26 -27F in Sonoita / 29F in Patagonia isn't cold for either area.. No urban island anywhere close to each area yet they don't even dive below 25F ..Interesting ..if that is how it plays out..

All in all, for now,  not too cold, in most areas at least ...but maybe cold enough to burn small tender things..

While mornings may stay cool-ish beyond Wednesday, any frost threat should go away..



Days will stay on the warm side of mild..  ..Kinda think the current thoughts on temps later this week / into next week might be a touch lower than they might end up being..

This is why... That's a pretty convincing signal in both current outlooks.. We'll see if anything major flips..






Next possible " taste o' Winter " may come after X-mass  ..if the often inaccurate Accuweather thoughts play out at that time.. ( Currently suggesting the last week of DEC / start of Jan turn chilly, even though it stays dry )  ..We'll see about that...

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A Chappy n' DRY  54F at 6:21PM,  headed for.... ?? 

Interesting evening setting up.. Will be drop to / below 40F before clouds start moving in -before sunset- ..or will those increasing clouds cancel out this possible brush with frost..


Other big factor??  ..Dew Point, which had dropped to -14, but  is now sitting around -7 to 3 deg. around the valley.

Remember, if the temp doesn't reach the dew point, or below it, " dew " ( which then then freezes ...Ala frost ) can't form..  DP will rise a bit through the night but doesn't look to come anywhere close to the suggested low.. ( Below 10 deg if the current forecast is correct. Well below 20 at anytime between now and early Thursday morning regardless )

Gonna get chilly  ..but not that chilly..

As dry as it has been,  unless silly enough to water cold sensitive things or a lawn tonight, i highly doubt there will be much -if any- frost around anywhere come 7AM tomorrow..

We'll see but not at all worried..





Rest of the week / headed into next week? ..looks pretty tame.

[sandgroper]

Was 41c today, currently 32c at 8.30pm. Fortunately cooling down over the coming days. Heading for a top of 35c tomorrow. 

[sandgroper]

Got to 37c today, a tad warmer than expected.  Currently 35c at 1.00pm.

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild  Fiddy' - Six,  headin'  somewhere into the upper 60s to maybe 72 or 3 later..  Weekend ahead lookin good..

As we round out mid- month, and head into the week before X-mass / official start to the X mass travel week,  ( aannd  the start of Astronomical Winter... )

Weather is looking  ..Quite Spring -ish?? ...  Could we make another run at the 80s?, -at least- next Wednesday?.. Current WX. U. forecast = Maybe a touch too optimistic, or perhaps the NWS' current thoughts on next week are leaning a bit too hard into the conservative end of things for the moment..  We'll see.. 



Regardless, Looking quite un- December like as the final stretch of the month  ..and 2024...  comes into view..

[Silas_Sancona]

After a niice Sunday afternoon spent getting stuff done, a not so chilly 53F at 8:04PM as the final full moon of 2024 ascends into crystal clear skies...

Week leading into the final stretch of the holidays  ..looks  ...wild...

W/ no storms in the forecast, how can that be?  ...Simple actually.. 

After living here since ..Spring '16, i can't remember seeing a forecast like this  ...at this time of year.

After starting the week somewhere in the lower to mid- 70s ( Not out of the question the currently - suggested highs get a boost come tomorrow morning either )  very possible the latter half of the week, ..leading into X - Mass Eve... might be one of the warmest in some time. 

At the very least, Phoenix may flirt with a record set in ...1917 on Wednesday or Thursday.  ..At the other end of the " possible outcome scenario "  not out of the question we tack on 2-4 days -in the 80s- next week. 




Tucson too, where it is possible  they see more  80F highs than we do next week... Warmer morning lows too..




Snippet from the morning forecast discussion down there..  Gotta say, Kudos to whom ever writes their forecast discussions at times. Chef's kiss added in at the end of the paragraph is how you get regular folks interested in the weather..




The wild part?    ...is that highs here may not be all that different than what is currently forecast in both La Paz ( In Baja -Sur-  ..near Cabo ),  ..and Puerto Vallarta  ..in late December   ..How often does that happen..

Lows might not be as warm thru the same time period, but, ..at the very least,  Phoenix proper might not drop below the lower 50s on a couple mornings later next week.








As of the current W.U. 10 day forecast thoughts, X-mass eve could be hanging in the mid / upper 70s..  Be interesting to see what X-Mass day looks like when the 10 day updates after 11PM our time.  Right now, it may also be in the mid 70s..

Temps may pull back a little as we close in on the final days of 2024 ..but just a little..  And it's not out of the question a warm opening to the Holidays ends just as warm..  We'll see.


Simply put, ..a very " X- Mass BBQ on the patio, in shorts n' sandals,  after a dip in the pool " ( if you're brave  ..or your pool is heated ) kind of  X- Mass in view this year here in the deserts. 

High country doesn't look all that bad either ( highs in the mid / upper 50s, lows only in the lower / mid 20s  ..9A - type lows... for Flagstaff  < 6,994ft in elevation >  for example )

Absolutely no complaints from state 48...

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Cool start in the upper 30s,  61 atm ( 11:10AM ),  headed for the lower 70s... Only headed up from there..

Morning forecasts = PHX now with 3 days in the 80s forecast, depending on where you're at in town..

Tucson now upped to 4 days in the 80s, w/ 2 more that could get there..

Looking west,  current point n' click NWS Office forecasts suggest we won't be hogging the nice weather this week..


After a chance of rain today, upper 60s to low 70s in / around San Jose is " hot " for late December there..



L.A. basin / SD coastal areas looking good too..







Palm Springs area? =  sharing the 80s..




Quite nice, Even out in the sticks down near the border..  Suggested low temps for Sonoita ( 4560ft elev .No urban Heat Is. influence down there ) would be more typical for here, not an area considered 8A..





Peeking a bit further out towards NYE?

Current 00Z forecast thoughts from the ECMWF, EC -AIFS, and EPS suggesting:   ..Quite warm as we kick 2024 to the curb..  GFS is also currently suggesting HP ridging will build back in over the area at the same time.     Will it stick?    We'll see.













On a side note,  While Scott's Valley ( ..Small town up in the Santa Cruz Mountains near San Jose ) experienced an F1 Tornado over the weekend / San Fran. it's first Tornado Warning -ever, 




...while firefighters are working to contain a small ..220 acre wildfire ( Horton Fire ) up on the rim near Payson ( AZ )
https://www.abc15.com/news/region-northern-az/fire-crews-battling-horton-fire-near-tonto-creek-estates


Not the kind of WX - related things you'd expect to see in either area, in December..

[sandgroper]

Currently 21c at 5.30am heading for a sunny top of 30c.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Courtenay, British Columbia, (Canada). Dec.18, 2024.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 66 at 6:26PM  after reaching the 80s earlier...

That sound you might have heard across the valley,  state  ...region...  Those weren't holiday bells chiming,  those were records falling  ..all over the place.. 

Awaiting any record reports from both the L.A. / Oxnard, and Flagstaff offices but have little doubt records fell in the Los Angeles NWS area today..  As warm as it was today here, i doubt it was " cold " up in Flagstaff / other spots above and / or in N.W. AZ today..

Record reports so far: Tomorrow's record for Phoenix is a biggie   ..if we smash it..













Area temps: ..A few upper 80s / flirting w/ 90 neighborhood readings on the board today as well. Anticipate more will pop up  tomorrow ..And on Friday.
























In / near Tucson as well...


























NICE day for doing some hiking / exploring,  or picking up gifts ( ...or authentic Tamales ) < in Nogales > down near the border too...






..Palm Springs, San D. ..and the rest of S. Cal:
































SF Bay Area left out of the fun today, though it was still mild ( upper 60s / some 70s ) up that way.



Staying warm right up to X-Mass, locally,  ...then a slight  shift in the prevailing pattern perhaps????    ..Still not sure i believe it but the GEFS ( 840 hour / 00Z runs ) continues to advertise a stretch of  " above average high days / cooler < ...than it has been > to below average mornings " kind of pattern trying to edge into both CA and AZ right after the 25th, and possibly hanging around thru about Jan. 7th - 10th..

ECMWF weeklys ( Out to Jan. 27th in today's update )  aren't showing any signs of any big  shift of the warmth - dominant pattern for most of the west, so ..🤔 

Outside the Pac. N.W.,  Precip map on the weeklys looks dry   ..or no strong " above average " lean signal thru the same time period too..

Yea, yeahh,  ...Since things can flip on a dime, and some may howl, ...if it came to be.......


We'll see how it looks this time next week but, ..if... the GEFS' thoughts stick,  ....you've been  ....advised.   ...No being taken by " surprise "  by a few sneaky low 30F mornings showing up in the forecast right around the start of '25.. 


Beyond that,  exactly one month to go before days start getting longer.  Less than that before we cross the +1 minute added to each day mark..  ...and " winter " 24/ 25 turns to face / starts walking toward  ..the exit




 

[sandgroper]

A few warm days coming up, currently 27c at 8.00am.

[Silas_Sancona]

 ..2 more days exceeding 80?  ..two more records shattered..   Yesterday's was a doozy.   






61 at 7:20PM..    Greeting the " winter " solstice under sunny skies and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s tomorrow..


Tucson tossing records around as well, ....aat least yesterday ( Any records tied / broken across that part of state 48 today haven't been posted yet, if any occurred at all )  Did not realize yesterday's record down there also went back to 1917..  Crazy...





Mid / upper 70s ( and / or maybe another 80?  ...in the warmest parts of town ) hangin' on thru X-mass Eve  ..Then lower 70s thru next Sat ..Before possibly warming back to the mid?? 70s as 2024 finally gets thrown in the dumpster.. ( Feel free to hand me that gas can over there behind you ) 

All suggested highs for the rest of the month would  be above normal, even on any days where highs only top out at 70.



Still have eyes on the GFS / GEFS for the start of Jan.  Both still sticking with their thoughts of a potential swipe of cool wx rudely trying to interrupt otherwise perfect " winter ' weather as January arrives..      .....We'll see.. 

For the moment at least,  both are pretty much the outliers  forecast thoughts - wise,  as all of today's individual runs of the ECMWF, EC -AIFS, and EPS, ...and today's ECMWF Weeklys keep the warm streak going, though perhaps w/ some cool- ish mornings tossed in.. 

ECMWF weeklys now go out to Feb. 3rd.. and maintain the above avrg. temp lean across -at least- the Southwest all the way through the suggested forecast period...  ( 2M Temp / Surface Temp. Mean Charts ) Very little rain chances either..

That pans out and  =  Can pretty much kiss winter goodbye by mid - Feb. here this year... Perfectly fine with that, ...even if it means " Nuke Season " may arrive sooner,  later on..


Speaking of...   Had to laugh at the highly, overly enthusiastic neighborhood temp reading noted today..   80s are nice,  100+, now,  would be pretty over the top..




We know you'll be back soon enough, so, if you don't mind, lets save the return of the 100's for after  the first 30 days of the new year 😁
 

[Palmensammler]

Temperatures here in southern Germany are crazy. One day 0°C / 32°F and the next one up to 8°C / 47° F. No snow in sight for Christmas. 😩  My palms in ground are all still thriving (Trachies and hybrids of them). 

Greetings Eckhard 

[flplantguy]

Lows this morning in (near) coastal Hudson Florida were 46F here and 36 inland cold spot. 50 or above in the warmer spots south of here in Pinellas.  Chilly day today before colder tonight, hopefully not too bad🤞

[Silas_Sancona]

A classic example of how elevation can effect overnight lows in winter kind of morning across the valley... Live up in the hills? you might be awakening to lows in the mid / upper 50s ...or low 60s...



Live closer to the rivers ...or in one of the neighborhoods located out on the lower elevation flats away from the warmer city core southwest of town, ..and you might be greeting the middle 30s with your morning cup of coffee  ..or a touch cooler.  






Same idea around Tucson as well.. Maybe some frost on a roof, or that invasive Bermuda grass lawn nextdoor, ..or perhaps a thin crust of ice sitting in the bird bath atm if located near the river.. Warmer and frost free if located in a neighborhood above / further away from..






Upper 70s to low 80s on tap by the afternoon..  On the way to day # 4 -in a row- reaching 80 / 80+ in Tucson..  Day #5 possible down there tomorrow..  Within reach on both Monday and X-Mass Eve.. 

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

Winter solstice in the Northern hemisphere today. Daytime high 52°F / 11°C. Looking forward to more than 8 hrs of daylight. 😁