What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

A smokey / hazy 101F at 11:39AM..  On the way to 103-105F later.. Not too bad, and hopefully only improving thru what is left of the week.. Could feel that glimmer of fall in the " cooler than it has been all summer air " last night

As of today, it will be day 108 of 100 / 100+ days in a row.  Yesterday marked day 61 of highs above 110F in Phoenix. Pretty close here.  If it doesn't hit 110 again today or tomorrow,  that streak may come to an end for the year as well.





Much bigger improvements as we head thru the up coming weekend??  We'll see,  but it's looking that way  ...FINALLY..  Sub - 70F lows for a few days will be quite nice.

As for the suggested rain chances?  Fingers crossed but, in a summer like we've had,  not giving up on them,  but not counting on them panning out either ...We'll have to see how things look come Friday. 

Would be nice to see Phoenix' es Monsoon Season Rainfall total finally crack 1", Let alone see one last - for the season-  soaking in this part of town. 


 

[sandgroper]

Currently 24c heading for a sunny top of 27c.

[Silas_Sancona]

Mid to LOW  80s  around town at 10:36PM ..what is this madness, lol

[DTS]

Pretty warm for september, not complaining at all! 

[Tyrone]

20 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Currently 24c heading for a sunny top of 27c.

There’s some early warm weather along the west coast. Not so warm on the south coast but boy it’s dry for September. Only 18mm for Sep which for mid Sep is dismal, especially after a dry winter. We normally get 60-120mm in September. We are already getting rainfall that would be normal for late October, November. 

[sandgroper]

6 hours ago, Tyrone said:

There’s some early warm weather along the west coast. Not so warm on the south coast but boy it’s dry for September. Only 18mm for Sep which for mid Sep is dismal, especially after a dry winter. We normally get 60-120mm in September. We are already getting rainfall that would be normal for late October, November. 

It's a bit of a worry really, 28c here today with nothing but sunny skies ahead in the forecast. We had a late start to the winter rains, they were pretty good when they did come but we should be still getting some now. Hopefully we'll get a bit more before the hot dry stuff starts.

[Silas_Sancona]

103F at 2:08PM w some southerly breezes / clouds starting to work their way north out of Mexico = not too bad..  gets BETTER  from here ...




Still keeping a close eye on the potential end-of-weekend / start of next week rain chances,  but,  for now,  those chances are looking reasonably decent..  Thanks in part to a moisture surge from weak, T.S. Ileana as it's remnants get pulled north and enhansed by an approaching ..and somewhat stronger than is typical this time of year trough / low pressure the core of which will pass somewhere between the AZ/ UT border, or squarely across Cen. / Northern Utah come late Sunday or Monday morning..

Fingers crossed the rain pans out..  Even better if totals exceed the 0.30- - 0.55" or so suggested for this side of the valley.



...Regardless,  several day stretch of much nicer temps arrives by Monday, if not sooner,  depending on rain / cloud cover across the area tomorrow, and / or on Sunday. 

At this point, temps. may try to return to the 99 -102F mark by next Sunday, as Astro. Fall arrives in the desert.

Even so, -Not -too -bad..

[Chester B]

It’s turned real hot here again. I thought we might’ve been cooling off but I guess it was due to the hurricane. Back up in the upper 90s again. Today I saw it briefly touch 99F with the humidity adding about 10 degrees to the “feels like” temperature.  

[sandgroper]

A beautiful sunny top of 25c today, a great morning catching up with a mate in Fremantle. 

[sandgroper]

Carbon copy of yesterday here, another beautiful, sunny top of 25c.

[Silas_Sancona]

A reasonable 85F at 12:23AM under mainly CLEAR skies..

Yep,  as i'd suspected, our " Decent " rain chances have vaporized to pretty much nothing as ..what is left of.. what once was T.S. IlIana ( Red dot on the Sat. view grab below ) approaches the Guaymas area in Sonora.



As weak as it was as it entered the Gulf / barely sideswiped the Cape in Eastern Baja Sur,  i'd suspected it might have enough " umph " to really advect much moisture into Cen. AZ. before completely collapsing.  While the NWS held onto the " suggested " forecast, it was pretty obvious by yesterday afternoon  this forecast would end up a total bust.

More optimal " transition Season " set ups involving tropical storm - influenced rainfall  would be a tropical storm / Hurricane landing where the Purple circles are  -before-  completely collapsing. In more cases than not, T.S. falling apart well south of Guaymas = harder time getting that moisture up here, unless it is a big storm and moisture sticks around long enough to get pulled north up the Gulf..

Considering the where predominant region for optimal moisture has set up all summer ( Dark Green arrows ), it figures a majority of what this event might offer would stay well east of the area.. Remnant blob of moisture will likely follow the same path as well ( Dark Red arrow )..

While an approaching, and fairly strong -for this time of year-  Polar low currently near Cen. CA. may try to pull some moisture north / northwest ( Light Green arrows ) to ~roughly~ where the yellow line is situated across the region, I don't think it will be enough to offer much -if any- rain chances overnight / tomorrow  ..before dry air, currently moving into S. CA.,  sweeps it's way east, ending any opportunities for rain sometime tomorrow, per the latest forecast.   BOO!  lol.

No rain tonight / tomorrow ...before all chances are swept away,  could be dry until.......................................... 

No rain chances suggested for the rest of the month in any current forecasts so, Monsoon Season 2024  may end ....tomorrow.





At least we'll see temps. pull back -somewhat-  ..before heading back to the 100's by next weekend. 

Guess if it is going to be bone dry, nights can be nicer.  🙃   Take whatever wins you can here.. 🤷‍♂️




A couple extras for the evening, errr, morning..

Good video discussion from Mark Sponsler ( Stormsurf ) on what what may influencing the odd weather patterns of late.. And not just in the west.  

Could ..whatever.. is influencing things atm be -at least- partially responsible for all the totally blown" hyper"  hurricane season forecasts??  -to this point in time at least-   Tough to say, but  ..i wouldn't doubt it.
 

Latest thoughts on how the forecast may play out for the rest of September / start of October ..and some early musings on what the winter ahead may offer from Daniel Swain.

https://weatherwest.com/archives/43031












 

[sandgroper]

Currently 10c at 6.00am heading for a sunny top of 27c.

[UK_Palms]

It has been pretty decent the past few days, which is good since I am in Cornwall. I have actually got fairly sunburnt on my face and the back of my neck. Lots of sun and blue skies.

24-25C in London through to the weekend, before a deterioration and cooler, cloudier weather moves in.

 

Very strong anticyclone hovering over Scotland right now. Even in Scotland they are seeing mid-20's C in 3rd week of September. Total precipitation block and lots of fine sunny weather, especially up north. Makes a change for the northerners. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 75F at 10:18PM under the last full moon of Astro. Summer..  ..And a barely noticeable Lunar Eclipse..

Forecast says it all .. warm now,  ..a little warmer by the weekend / next week,   but nights stay nice..  ..and no 105+ heat on the board, for now at least..





At the same time ..as thought, racked up a whopping half a dozen drops yesterday but,  ..that's it..  No one around town really got anything either.  So,  ..with no signs of any more rain chances in the forecast thru the end of the month?  can place Monsoon 2024 in the bag now,   instead of 13 days from now..

If they're lucky, ABQ and a few spots in N.E AZ  might have another opportunity or two  to add -something- to their Monsoon season totals,  though those opportunities don't look all that great either going forward, right now at least.

As it stands, ..and if it really does stay dry thru the 30th,  only Tucson will have managed to reach / exceed their Monsoon season rainfall total     ..And just by the hair on a wildcat's  tail ...or Helmet..






Everyone else?  .....Maybe next year..  Maybe, lol.    Regardless,  even  the paa-thetic #'s for Phoenix are better than last year.   Maybe next year  ..we'll improve to  .99" 🙃 😂🤷‍♂️


Flagstaff


ABQ:



El Paso:




Phoenix..  oof!,  ..We'll see how awful  the valley - wide average  is at the end of the month.





We'll see how September shakes out once we reach the end of the month but, for the summer, here are some of the records we broke  ..uhhh, shattered, easily..  AGAIN.

** Hottest summer average on record at 98.9F

** 113 days of 100 / 100+  -In -A -Row,  ...not  total for the year..  We'll see where we end up in that regard later,  let alone how many days at / above 80 and 90 we racked up by the end of 2024..

Previous record of back to back 100 /100+ days = 76  ...Yes,  76.  Believe that was set fairly recently too.

** 103 days ( in a row )  at / above 105F, beating the old record 102 set in 2020.

** Most days w/  overnight lows at / above 90 = 38  ..At Sky Harbour at least..  About as hot here also.

** the 116F we saw just after the start of the month, which tied the all time record ( Recorded in 1950 ). Is also the latest 115+ reading recorded -ever- 115F was the previous record on September 1 set in 2020..

** 61 days ...in a row... at / above 110F

In a nutshell,

Live somewhere where maybe you saw a 3 or 4 days / a week or two of temps at / just above 100?  🤫  ...ya' got nothin' to complain about..


Oh yea.. Just saw this, in regards to where we stand as far as TOTAL 100F days so far this year.. Only need 26 to break the all -time record..  We've broken the rest. Can we add this to the list of PHX accomplishments this year? ...Shouldn't be too hard.   Lets do this people!!  lol



The Graph on the right ..just a little easier for all to read..




...And yea,  We're safe, from Kevo Martin, AGAIN.. 😂😂   Let the countdown begin.. 🤬

[Foxpalms]

Min of 63f/17.2c with a high of 78.8f/26c today with 45% humidity. Crystal clear skies all day. 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 62.2f/16.8c with a max of 74f/23.3c with 48% humidity. Sunny for most of the day.

[Silas_Sancona]

Pleasant 81F at 11:31PM with some clouds around and a quick shower / weak storm on the far N.W. fringes of the valley..  Maybe a little more activity skirting the foothills on the N. side of town before any moisture w/ a passing low heads up towards Flagstaff / N.E.'rn  AZ as it heads out.




Nice tomorrow  ..before the heat returns..  We'll see about the suggested stretch of temps at / above 105F mid/late week,  let alone how long this stretch of 100 / 100+ temps goes.  Would be 9 days if the temp reaches 100 on Sunday.

Looking more and more like Monsoon 2024, which officially ends on the 30th,  will close out bone dry..

[Foxpalms]

Nice clear skies this morning. Currently 17c/62.6c at 7.50am

[sandgroper]

A lovely early morning at the beach heading for a very nice 23c.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 62.6f/17c as the rain came in. Before it started raining it was still 66.2f/19c at 4am. Max of 70f/21.1c with 74% humidity.

My Archontophoenix cunninghamiana var illawarra always seems to grow faster at this time of the year than during the summer. Then slows down again towards the end of October.

Currently 17c at 4am and raining.

[Silas_Sancona]

After a reasonable weekend, another streak of 100s begins. Some records possible too.. Will downtown add 2 ..or 4 more 110F days to the record??..  We shall see.






Yep, just another Autumn day in the desert 🤣

[sandgroper]

Currently a chilly 10c at 6.00am heading for a sunny top of 24c.

[Silas_Sancona]

Today:







....Rest of the week / weekend / start of next week ( ....and  OCTOBER....    )  in the desert.




+





=









Keep an eye out for a swarm of Ice Cream Trucks rolling into town shortly...   Tis' Pumpkin  Spice season,  correct ??







.....

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.00am heading for a top of 28c.

[Tyrone]

Currently 7C at 6.45am and heading for a sunny 27C before thunderstorms and rain this evening, then back into the high teens tomorrow with a day of rain. 

[Silas_Sancona]

111F max, 109F atm ( 4:11PM )

Some other neighborhood readings:

[Tyrone]

14C at around 8am going for 16C and rain,

[sandgroper]

Heading for a cool, rainy top of 19c today.

[Silas_Sancona]

90F at 10:13PM  as the final days of September roll in..

 Weekend ahead still lookin' like a sizzler..  Will Downtown Phoenix reach / eclipse 115F, ....while we flirt w/ 115??  That is the big question for the next 3 days..








As October starts on Tuesday, possible we add our first ever 110F high in October   to this years' crazy list of weather records.  Not totally out of the question the suggested 108 next  Wednesday takes a crack at 110F as well.

[Palm Sundae]

Currently 114. Was supposed to get to 108. Which would have been a record.

 

Can't wait for Fall weather.

[Silas_Sancona]

A nuclear 111F at 4:29PM  ..We sure it is really the end of September,  instead of the end of July?   lol..

Just as hot around the rest of the E. Valley as well..  Yep, a few neighborhood stations are even flirting with the upper one hundred-teens atm as well.



















Since it is supposed to be hotter  tomorrow,  by a few burnt whiskers,   tomorrow's  #'s  should be interesting.. 



Regardless,  Stay hydrated out there... 

[Tyrone]

11C at 9am and we’ve had 44mm of rain since midnight yesterday. Everything is nice and drenched. We had roughly 30mm of ain for Sep but this drenching brings us much closer to the average. Looking forward to 27C on Tuesday but at the moment the fire is raging and going for a max of 16C.

[sonoranfans]

Heavy overcast sky, 81F raining steady the last hour.  940 AM EST

[Silas_Sancona]

105F at 10:24AM  on the way to torch fest later..

Starting off at 85-87F  as the sun rose, a few 108-110F readings on neighborhhod Wx stations before 11AM =  stage is set for exceeding the suggested high of 116F  in downtown ( PHX )  possibly here as well.  114F forecast..  Bet a dime we exceed it.


Note the NORMAL low for today, ..even at Sky Harbour..  Looks like we bottomed out in the 82-85F range here in Chandler as well ..so no, not just a " Sky Harbour " anomaly.




*** As an aside, it isn't just Phoenix / Valley of the Sun locations smashing records under this pattern.. Tucson ..and numerous places up in the Mountains / in S.E. 'rn AZ have also been roasting this week as well.  ***    Not out of the question Tucson makes a run at 110F today.  OOF!




10:24AM  numbers around the E. Valley:   Already a few 108-110's on the board.

[Silas_Sancona]

1:07PM check in:   ..Some 120's  by 4??? 😂












 

[Silas_Sancona]

109F at 5:32PM with some smoke on the western horizon..

As thought, Phoenix managed to out do it's suggested high for the day  topping out at a whopping 117F which makes today the latest 115+F reading recorded in any  year. 



Waiting to see what Tucson reached but, looking at the #'s around 4PM,  suspect they too reached a record today..



While there were numerous 118 -119F readings scattered around the valley thru the afternoon, only one neighborhood station close to downtown managed to crack the 120F mark -briefly..






A run down of neighborhood numbers right around 4PM across the Valley, and down south.


E. Valley and nearby:













Tucson and the Central Borderlands:




















Pretty darn hot in many parts of Las Vegas as well..





While the 110's should break after tomorrow, ..at least for a day... ( 110 is still in the forecast  for at least Tuesday )  100+ heat ain't going anywhere next week.. 


How close could we get to reaching / exceeding the total  amount of 100F days /year here?..  Today would mark day ~126 or 7.. Now add -at least- 7-10 ...or more..  to come, if the forecast stays as it is looking atm.. 

 While it doesn't look like it would reach the same crazy magnitude as we're experiencing,  if what is being seen in some of the longer term forecasts holds,  some hints the heat across the Southwest may try to expand west into CA by mid month as well.


 

[Silas_Sancona]

Running a few deg. lower than yesterday at 105F at 10:58AM w/ a breeze and a cloud or two around.. 108-111F later...

Week ahead is pretty simple  ...More record shattering..  W/ maybe a few more clouds thrown in from time to time.

A very slim - but not zero-  possibility of a shower or two up in the mountains at some point this week as some post - monsoonal moisture swirls around the state  for a few days.












..Starting w/ the low in PHX this morning..  Considering it is almost October and the sun angle is lower,  it's pretty wild to be seeing this kind of overnight heat..  ....Even here where we only bottomed out at 85F right as the sun rose..







🤔 .....I'm starting to think we need to build one here,   ...a literal tower  of   records 😁😂🙃




 

[aztropic]

It's been an exceptionally warm,record breaking summer in Phoenix...🤷‍♂️

 

aztropic 

Mesa, Arizona 

[Silas_Sancona]

93F at 8:08PM after another day of overachieving, lol..

Suggested high here? 109F.  Actual high, 111F

110 suggested for Phoenix today?  Naah, screw that, lets out do it..




Tucson as well..  Looking at temps around 4 this afternoon down there.. just a touch cooler than yesterday w/ more than enough 110F  readings scattered around town.

Similar story locally but ..is there really a difference between the 113-115 readings today,  and yesterdays' 114-118F readings?





Only change to the forecast -for now- ?  Excessive heat warning that was supposed to end on Tuesday, now extends out until  ..Friday.  Wouldn't be surprised if it gets extended again thru next weekend later.

Some of the forecast data this afternoon also seems to hint at upping forecast temps around the same time also, so ..maybe a few more 110s ..at least downtown  on the way???..




As mentioned earlier, ..and maybe a bit ahead of schedule,  looks like the heat is going to pay CA a visit this week as well..

Rare you see temps in the Bay Area reach highs about equal to suggested highs here.  Even more impressive when you factor in the time of year.  Hopefully any 100 / 100+ heat on the way doesn't extend beyond the currently suggested 2 - 4 days..








We'll see if any of the hotter spots in the South  and/ or  East bay manage to reach or exceed 110F,  Let alone if San Francisco can top 90.






Hot around L.A. but,  ..ya kind of expect some Autumnal heat down there this time of year..




Offshore wind component to the forecast out there doesn't look all that strong w/ this event, but i'd still keep a close eye out for any fires that might get going.. 



On the other hand  ..90's in Santa Cruz / 80s in Monterey ...and in other areas along the coast further south...  = some GREAT beach days / evenings,  if you can get over there..

[Silas_Sancona]

A reasonable 104F at 1:22PM.. Could we avoid adding another 110 / 110+ to the tally today??  We'll see.  Some clouds around / buildups in the mountains east of town which might eek out a shower or two up there / provide for a nice sunset down here ..if any of the cloud cover makes it into the valley at that time.

Various runs of the AZ- WRF have been toying with the idea of  upping the " weak shower chances maybe reaching the valley " idea but think what the model is seeing is more a result of being stumped by the current  " odd "  Wx pattern and is having trouble resolving forecast thoughts correctly, rather than something that actually occurs.  Then again, as odd as this year has been, can't totally write off -any- scenario either.

Other than that, no changes to the forecast atm. ..here at least.


Slightly different story for the S.F. Bay Area ..Forecast temps have bumped up a hair and the South Bay is now under an Excessive Heat Warning for a couple days..  We'll see how the current forecast thoughts play out.

Santa Cruz flirting w/ 100?  while Monterey stays in the 80s.  NICE  either way.








-At least- one day  at / above 90 suggested for the warmer neighborhoods up in E. and / or S. San Francisco.




110F now on the board for the Morgan Hill / San Martin / Gillroy area.. 

Sounds crazy but, for now at least,  temps could end up warmer here, closer to the coast,  rather than the usual hot spots in the Cen. Valley like Modesto, Fresno,, and Bakersfield. 

We'll see if that changes over the next couple days.



Could come close in the old hood a little further north.




Relief? As alluded to, that may not happen for awhile..    FYI, Mr. Swain will be back at it w/ another YT Office Hours session tomorrow evening.