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What is your current yard temperature?


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Posted

60 and perelite sized hail bouncing hard off the porch in a brief downpour....

  • Like 2
Posted

Min of 54f/12.2c with a high of 61.7f/16.5c. a mix of very light rain and sunshine however it was mostly cloudy.

  • Like 1
Posted

Currentky 26c heading for a sunny top of 34c. A beautiful morning for an early snorkel at olmy local beach before it gets too warm in the sun.

20240316_071510.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1
Posted
9 minutes ago, sandgroper said:

Currentky 26c heading for a sunny top of 34c. A beautiful morning for an early snorkel at olmy local beach before it gets too warm in the sun.

20240316_071510.jpg

Does Perth have any warm water coral reefs or do those only start further north?

Posted
3 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Does Perth have any warm water coral reefs or do those only start further north?

A bit of coral around Perth, more further out around Rottnest Island but most of it starts a bit further north in the state 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Posted

Min of 47.3f/8.5c with a high of 58.1f/14.5c with 48% humidity.  Its 3am right now and the temps currently rising throughout the night. 17c is forecasted for today however that will depend on when it changes from cloudy to sunny.

  • Like 1
Posted

This week we got rain on some days and it started out cooler but bounced back by Wednesday. All in all it was another nice spring week with nice temps and lots of sunshine. Today the rain came back and we had the coldest night with a low of 4.4°C and a high of 15.3°C. Forecast looks very nice.  :greenthumb:🌴

  • Like 1

  

Posted

Two days record highs recorded 75 and 74.  By mid week back to cloudy light rain sun breaks for awhile.   

Posted

After a chilly ( by mid March standards ) and stormy start to the weekend, followed by a reasonably nice weekend, Upper 60s at 10: 55AM,  headed for somewhere in the mid- 70s later under plenty of high clouds ..and  what could be  a very interesting afternoon ahead.

After dumping .20 - .40" of rain at the house, ( Depending on whose rainfall data you look over ) and a few claps of thunder on Friday, our Desert wandering CutOff Low continues to provide some interesting weather as it tries to find an escape route outta' the Southwest.

Rainfall from Friday:


Screenshot2024-03-16at12-13-51ALERTDataMap.thumb.png.ef8a9d813e93e7ddfdf7bf9aa7e1341f.png

Screenshot2024-03-16at12-14-49Rainlog_org.thumb.png.fae5e2f1d47ed6c125de64109f38c5e0.png
Screenshot2024-03-16at12-15-34Rainlog_org.thumb.png.f80626ee9b6a689831422e4bb139618e.png

Screenshot2024-03-16at12-16-09Rainlog_org.thumb.png.a34390ebbbc3c1e3c3379df18c411daf.png



After rotating north of the area thru the weekend ( Dashed light blue line on the Sat. screen grab below ) providing the high country w/ more showers / brief storms,  main center of the COL ( Solid Purple " L " ) has managed retrograde back to the west of AZ to a position somewhere near the Coachella Valley / Palm Springs area ( Where it appears there may be a few storms passing overhead atm )

Much warmer here today and appears there will be a decent - by March standards- amount of CAPE to play with.  W/ the center of the low to our west ...and headed south, then E.S.E. back towards AZ later, flow around it is bringing moisture west north west from both N.M. / Chihuahua ( Darker Yellow and Orange lines = circulation in the mid / upper levels ), and, to a lesser extent, from the Gulf of CA ( light Yellow lines = lower level circulation )

Green dots represent two scenarios as the low head east again that may ..or may not.. provide opportunity for showers / storms tomorrow.  Dark green dots ( Scenario #1 ) would be an ideal position.  Even better if the low is just south of Yuma by 9am tomorrow.

For now, while most storm activity that is anticipated to form today should stay up in the mountains, not out of the question some of it ends up spilling into the East Valley, esp. if any stronger storms form in the foothill areas just east of a line between Florence and the Catalinas in Tucson.  An AZ version of a dry line may try to set up somewhere between here and Queen Creek, which could also enhance any storms that end up forming over say the San Tan Mountains / other peaks in the foothills nearby on this side of the valley. 

We'll see what happens.


Screenshot2024-03-18at10-30-37CODNEXLABSatelliteandRadar.thumb.png.2288cd62c4454b6087ded0b6321215a4.png

As mentioned, depending on where our wandering cut off low heads next, tomorrow could offer up one last chance of scattered storms before the low heads outta town where it could create some trouble for the eastern U.S. and FL. later..



Week ahead looks like another roller coaster ride.. W/ the COL finally being ejected from the Southwest by Wednesday / 1st day of Trad. Spring,  temps to head back into the 80s. for the rest of the week.  Next trough roaming the Pacific atm may roll into town by the end of next weekend ..bringing another possible chance of spring showers / snow up on the Rim / cool down ...if it digs far enough south.


Screenshot2024-03-18at10-24-35ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.666fb14655c653221c13cc4d7f6c46c1.png

What happens after that is a big ?????...

For now, for the most part,  GFS wants to keep things mild and " trough-y " over the state / region  thru the end of the month..  Current EC - AIFS has been trending warm (  ....errr, HOT ) again as March ends / April begins..  If ...big 'ol IF... it is correct, we could jump headlong into a stretch of 90s as the month ends / April starts..  Would kind of be nice, imo.

Current 06Z EC AIFS for March 31st:


Screenshot2024-03-18at11-34-42ModelsECMWF-AIFS-PivotalWeather.png.d0eeff2bdf3d4b6ca30402a972f02a08.png


GFS is correct? ..Temps will continue to  stay " tempered " ..if not a dash cooler ( ...but not cold )  than many expect as we end March.

06Z GFS for March 31st:


Screenshot2024-03-18at11-35-25ModelsGFS-PivotalWeather.png.8de5c71698052d139f17d8d1ec20a2eb.png



We'll see who gets it right    ...Let alone if there's some lightning in the neighborhood later today  ..or tomorrow. :greenthumb:

Posted

Storms starting to fire over the Ft. Hills here / Severe storms moving into San Diego Co. atm..  Some addtnl.shower /  storm development across other portions of S. Cal. / N. Baja / possibly north to about Santa Barbara  can't be ruled out thru the rest of the afternoon..

Very easy to pick out where the COL is located / moving.


CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-local-S_California-truecolor-2021Z-20240318_counties-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-79-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.255f2c9a16dc087f6cfa718930286bab.gif

Posted

Yesterday it was 81f in Richland WA that’s in the high desert of the state in Eastern WA. They get pretty hot in the summer mostly triple digit temperatures. The rain fall is something like 6” a year. Lots of cactus and rattlesnakes.  

  • Like 1
Posted
28 minutes ago, Paradise Found said:

Yesterday it was 81f in Richland WA that’s in the high desert of the state in Eastern WA. They get pretty hot in the summer mostly triple digit temperatures. The rain fall is something like 6” a year. Lots of cactus and rattlesnakes.  

The date was march 18th Monday. 2024.  

Posted

Right now in Aripeka/north Hudson Florida its that start of a radiational cooling night. 49.8 degrees in the open, and 5 or more degrees warmer under cover in the yard. Projected low is 41 or 43 with many more hours to go, but the calm wind could start back up again overnight. Took all winter to get a decent sunset temperature plummet, and it happens litterally hours before the moment spring begins.  Better than january but im hoping the trees keep the plants above 45 since the greenhouse is not available. 50 plus for the lows before and after, thank you spring!

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Posted

Autumn in Perth, pleasant days and comfortable sleeping temperatures at night, it's a nice time of year.  It will be nice to start getting a bit of rain though, it's been pretty dry thus far.

Screenshot_20240320_184434_Gallery.jpg

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Posted

Under trees stayed above 45, in the open it hit 41 for a bit before a rapid rise to 64 now. A beautiful day in store and the pollen is starting to calm down too.  The furnace to the south will be back soon enough.

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Posted

Min of 52f/11.1c with a max of 66.2f/19c with 50% humidity.  A pretty mild evening too didn't drop below 60f till 8.30pm. The 850hpa temp was 4-5c with the sun shining through the clouds.  With the 850hpa temp higher tomorrow we will see if it's warmer however cloud is forecasted so it will depend on if the sun comes out. 

 

  • Like 1
Posted

This morning was 22F with a 9F wind-chill.  Tonight gets down to 20f with less wind.  My uncovered Trachy F, Needle, and Sabal minor are shivering!  🥶

  • Like 1
Posted

A nice, sunny 77F at 12:24PM after a sprinkle or two ( here ) as a final round of monsoon-ish like storms tried to roll into the valley, as the cutoff low that had been touring Arizona over the past several days finally heads east..

As we start down the final week of March, lower / lower mid -80s on tap thru Saturday, before another storm attempts to bring the desert a few more showers on Sunday ..and / or Monday.  Low 70s look to kick off the last week of the month, followed by another warm up later on..


Screenshot2024-03-21at11-49-53ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.991ad2c5145bbb3a4402ccedf7b3df2d.png

Depending on which model " thoughts " you choose to pay any attention to, another chance of showers might pass through as the month comes to a close / April starts, or, perhaps the tap finally shuts off and we head into April on a warmer note.  We'll see..

CPC's thoughts for April..


Screenshot2024-03-21at11-34-36ClimatePredictionCenter-OFFICIAL30-DayForecasts.png.9032f4b1fbc3b188047c7c8242eb8d36.png


 

  • Upvote 1
Posted

Thursday: Min of 48f/9c with a max of 65.3/18.5c with 58% humidity. Uv index was a 3.

Friday: Min of 50f/10c with a max of 55.3f/13c with 48% humidity. The cold front from the artic circle moved in and we had thick cloud until around 3.30pm so the sun didn't have long to warm the temps before it started to cool down.

This morning we have crystal clear dark blue skies. The low was 42f/5.5c and the humidity is 72% right now at 7.20am. It's forecasted to change back to sun and clouds around 9.30am the back to clear skies around 3pm. 

Posted (edited)

Min of 45f/7c with a high of 57.2f/14c with 37% humidity. A nice sunny day however not that warm as the arctic cold front moved in and brought along -4c 850hpa temps. 

Whilst this can change and probably will the gfs runs are showing 14c 850hpa temps going into April which = temps in the low 20's c (70-75f).

Northern parts of the UK have a 99% chance of seeing the northern lights today. London though is too far south to see them.

Screenshot2024-03-24185328.png.75ad86fadd437f680de196df6d74c19c.png

Edited by Foxpalms
  • Like 2
Posted

Saturday in the lower 80s and partly cloudy, Sunday, in the lower 60s w/ some breezy spit at times after another .25" of rain sometime last night..  Not horrible, but quite a change if you preferred Saturday's weather, lol..

Week ahead looking to continue the topsy turvy battle between spring,  trying to settle in, and a the last gasps of an El Nino winter season trying to cling on for as long as possible..


Screenshot2024-03-24at15-13-47ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.370a737793efa4e4238f9718f184b5cb.png

On and off spit today, w/ an outside chance for actual showers ..maybe a weak storm- this evening, before rain chances retreat - for the most part- up into the mountains tomorrow / Tuesday.. That said, rain chances for this half of the week can't be completely wiped from the forecast.. One sheared off vort lobe passing through the deserts could add enough moisture to induce more shower activity before this storm heads east mid week.

Another late week warm up looks likely ..How warm depends on what model output you look over over the next few days..  could only reach the lower 80s, or possibly flirt w/ 90 ..for a day at least..  ...Before the next ..possibly more potent  storm arrives just in time for Easter next weekend..

Sets up right and that storm could bring a decent soaking / possibly stronger storms. Temps. drop to the low 60s again ..at least for a day or two..

What happens as April sets in is still up in the air, but.. If the active phase of the MJO we're currently in does weaken as it heads east of the Pacific toward Africa, that could close the door on this year's rainy season ..here at least.. We'll see..





With March just about in the bag, a quick look at the absolute  low various places around S. AZ experienced for the Jan. / Feb. / March time frame this year, compared to last year. 

Planning on tracking this for a few years, just to see if a hunch is within the ballpark as it regards how winters are changing in this half of the state.



Data from Accuweather...

Chandler:                                  Jan.'23:  30F     Feb.'23: 30F      Mar.'23: 36F     .......  Jan.'24: 28F      Feb.'24:  36F     Mar.'24:  39F      

Tucson ( Casas Adobes area of town )  Jan.'23:  30F     Feb.'23:  29F     Mar.'23: 33F    ........  Jan.'24: 28F      Feb.'24: 35F     Mar.'24: 39F**



Sahuarita, AZ:                       Jan.'23: 22F       Feb.'23: 27F       Mar.'23: 27F    ..........  Jan.'24: 22F       Feb.'24: 29F      Mar.'24: 36F**

Corona De Tucson, AZ:         Jan.'23: 24F       Feb.'23: 25F       Mar.'23: 30F    ...........  Jan.'24: 24F       Feb.'24: 34F     Mar.'24: 39F**



Nogales, AZ:                         Jan.'23:  20F       Feb.'23:  25F     Mar.'23: 26F   ...........  Jan.'24: 19F        Feb.'24: 28F      Mar.'24: 32F**

Sonoita, AZ:                         Jan.'23:  18F       Feb.'23: 20F      Mar.'23: 25F    ............  Jan.'24: 19F         Feb.'24: 29F       Mar.'24: 34F**

Patagonia, AZ:                     Jan.'23: 20F          Feb.'23: 21F       Mar.'23: 26F     ............ Jan.'24: 19F          Feb.'24: 28F      Mar.'24: 32F**



** = Since there are a few days left in the month, ** takes into account that those areas might see a low below the suggested lowest low before Apr. 1st..

For example.. Lowest low for Casas Adobes is currently 43F but, a low of 39 ( Tonight, possibly again on Easter ) is suggested in the current forecast for the remainder of the month, per Accuweather's forecast.

In Sahuarita, Nogales, and Patagonia, lows may not drop below the lowest temp recorded there so far this month.  Will update later.

 

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
On 3/21/2024 at 1:11 PM, Silas_Sancona said:



Screenshot2024-03-21at11-34-36ClimatePredictionCenter-OFFICIAL30-DayForecasts.png.9032f4b1fbc3b188047c7c8242eb8d36.png


 

This map is turning out to be true for us in the PNW.  April & May looking the same.  A few days at normal then going above normal.  

Edited by Paradise Found
  • Like 1
Posted

A darn near chilly 71F, tomorrow in the 60s.

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Chester B said:

A darn near chilly 71F, tomorrow in the 60s.

Nice enjoy those cool temps while they last LOL.  Last weekend was nice here mid 70’s. A little warmer south.  

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

Right, me and Fox Palms will be constructing an Ark now at this point. Two of each palm species will have to be moved on board the Ark to ensure survival against the rising flood waters. We might stop by Kew Gardens to save the specimens in the glass houses from the flood waters too. 🙄 🤣

I haven’t been posting much lately as the weather is just so average and benign. Nothing cold. Nothing warm. Just rain, rain, rain. The sun comes out for a bit, temps reach the mid teens C, then heavens open up again and more rain. Deluges even. Another 6mm here today bringing the March total up to 91mm so far. December and February were complete washouts as well, along with October and November. It’s almost like we have been stuck in a perpetual autumn/fall since October, bar a brief chilly spell for 10-14 days in January. We actually have a Ukrainian refugee working for us at the moment and he is moaning about how there was ‘no winter’ and just constant rain since he arrived in October! 🤣

 

The water table is about as high as I have ever seen it in my lifetime. This is both the wettest 6 month period on record and also the wettest 18 month period on record for England going back to October 2022. And it is only going to get worse in the next few weeks with buckets of rain in the forecast. I blame the strong-moderate El Niño mostly as they tend to produce wet or ‘washout’ conditions here in northwest Europe. There is potential for the wettest start to an April on record too now ffs… no end in sight! Southwest England looks to really get hammered with more deluges next week on the ECMWF model. Just look at those rain spikes! 🙄

000A34A4-AAF5-4AE5-A883-9D37C38D7A47.jpeg.13fa23b818392bc1b7f449097445d750.jpeg

1631296E-E2BA-44B0-813D-57443B96E05C.jpeg.7618baf4ae93921e4f4524e5e1410a15.jpeg


This should flip sometime after mid-April or going into May as the ENSO cycle trends to neutral as we approach summer. Neutral ENSO tends to be dry, settled and warm for us here, as is the case with weak La Nina’s too, which we may find ourselves in by August. Also our summers are naturally on the dry side anyway, so I suspect a typical Csb / warm-summer Med pattern again this year with things turning exceptionally dry in mid-May through to September. It has to in order to balance out the nonsense of the past 6 months! 🤣

In the meantime… just yuck! Crap temps and rain most days… :sick:

4257ABE2-81C1-479D-B3F3-5FC84C9D0EA7.thumb.jpeg.ae501e4c0039cf08fa6710fc43a2afac.jpeg

Edited by UK_Palms
  • Like 1

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Posted

On the doorstep of 70F atm ( 11:22AM ), headed to somewhere in the mid / upper 70s later..

"nother round of low / maybe mid 80s for the remainder of the week, before another big, but quick drop ...and perhaps? the last big soaker for the season..  ..Before it tries to warm up again as we kick off the month ahead ...as the roller coaster ride continues..


Screenshot2024-03-27at11-52-31ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.ffce0e3f742f31a34c0455a509dfceac.png

Looking into April,  we'll see how long the ride lasts.. Sun is strong and will quickly  kick the stubborn left overs of  " winter " to the curb soon, " Active " MJO phase should simmer down as it heads toward Asia / looses momentum on this side of the planet, and the current, trough- infested setup in the Pacific may finally shift / settle down a bit, allowing our more typical sustained  spring heat to finally start building in..  Can see hints of that in much of the longer term forecast model output at least.. We'll see of course, since no sane person bets the house on a weather forecast..

That said, calls for a change to warmer are definitely growing louder in various local FB / E- loon's " Disaster X "  Wx - related threads..


Since April can still toss around rain chances in the desert, while the storm for the weekend might be the last bigger soaker for this side of the year, it might not be the last time we see a few drops here and there as we head thru April..  Again, we'll see.. 



 

Posted (edited)

April 1st Laredo TX. Will hit 97f  to. 101f. No joking!
that pretty hot for the first day of April   It will be mid 60s here Pnw.  

Edited by Paradise Found
  • Like 1
Posted

A beautiful early morning at the beach this Good Friday watching people heading out to catch a feed of fish from the marina. Heading for a pleasant top of 27c.

Screenshot_20240329_112221_Gallery.jpg

  • Like 1
Posted
On 3/27/2024 at 10:07 AM, UK_Palms said:

Right, me and Fox Palms will be constructing an Ark now at this point. Two of each palm species will have to be moved on board the Ark to ensure survival against the rising flood waters. We might stop by Kew Gardens to save the specimens in the glass houses from the flood waters too. 🙄 🤣

I haven’t been posting much lately as the weather is just so average and benign. Nothing cold. Nothing warm. Just rain, rain, rain. The sun comes out for a bit, temps reach the mid teens C, then heavens open up again and more rain. Deluges even. Another 6mm here today bringing the March total up to 91mm so far. December and February were complete washouts as well, along with October and November. It’s almost like we have been stuck in a perpetual autumn/fall since October, bar a brief chilly spell for 10-14 days in January. We actually have a Ukrainian refugee working for us at the moment and he is moaning about how there was ‘no winter’ and just constant rain since he arrived in October! 🤣

 

The water table is about as high as I have ever seen it in my lifetime. This is both the wettest 6 month period on record and also the wettest 18 month period on record for England going back to October 2022. And it is only going to get worse in the next few weeks with buckets of rain in the forecast. I blame the strong-moderate El Niño mostly as they tend to produce wet or ‘washout’ conditions here in northwest Europe. There is potential for the wettest start to an April on record too now ffs… no end in sight! Southwest England looks to really get hammered with more deluges next week on the ECMWF model. Just look at those rain spikes! 🙄

000A34A4-AAF5-4AE5-A883-9D37C38D7A47.jpeg.13fa23b818392bc1b7f449097445d750.jpeg

1631296E-E2BA-44B0-813D-57443B96E05C.jpeg.7618baf4ae93921e4f4524e5e1410a15.jpeg


This should flip sometime after mid-April or going into May as the ENSO cycle trends to neutral as we approach summer. Neutral ENSO tends to be dry, settled and warm for us here, as is the case with weak La Nina’s too, which we may find ourselves in by August. Also our summers are naturally on the dry side anyway, so I suspect a typical Csb / warm-summer Med pattern again this year with things turning exceptionally dry in mid-May through to September. It has to in order to balance out the nonsense of the past 6 months! 🤣

In the meantime… just yuck! Crap temps and rain most days… :sick:

4257ABE2-81C1-479D-B3F3-5FC84C9D0EA7.thumb.jpeg.ae501e4c0039cf08fa6710fc43a2afac.jpeg

We've been getting extreme amounts of rain at my location too.

  • Like 1

An Autistic boy who has an obsession with tropical plants.

Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, EJPalm05 said:

We've been getting extreme amounts of rain at my location too.

It has to be the record warm North Atlantic as well, which enables the air to hold more moisture. That would explain the absolute deluges in northwest Europe and the northwest USA. Yesterday I had a bad storm roll through and more deluges. Another 23mm / 0.9 inches recorded yesterday alone.

For perspective of just how wet it has been here, my annual precipitation is typically about 560mm / 22 inches here. So fairly dry overall. However since October, I have had 690mm / 27 inches of rain here, just in the past 6 months! That is 5 inches more than the annual total, just in the space of 6 months! And just since January 1st this year, I have racked up a whopping 310mm / 12.2 inches.

4D0F0C94-1DCB-47C2-B0AF-EF22C5C0F7D2.png.a8628533ebcc6c738dab9ccfa51cc7b0.png

Again for perspective, I only had 230mm / 9 inches of rainfall during the first 9 months of 2022 from January 1st - October 1st. So I have actually had 3 inches more rainfall just during the first 3 months of 2024 than I had in the first 9 months of 2022! That is certainly extreme.

I suppose with climate change and warmer air, it has the capacity to hold more moisture. For every 1C increase in temperature, the air can hold 7% more moisture I think. Our autumns and winters are definitely getting a lot wetter here. Summer will probably be dry though with a typical Csb / warm-summer Med pattern. We will see.

 

@Tyrone When you had that record washout period I think a year or two ago, when you had bad flooding, how much rainfall did you actually record there between autumn and spring? Like during the cooler 6 months of the year? As I said, I am up to 690mm / 27 inches for the 6 month period since October 1st. Definitely the wettest 6 month period on record here. Again, El Niño is largely to blame for this.

 

Edited by UK_Palms
  • Like 1

Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Posted

A  wall to wall sunny 77F on your Good Friday across the valley/ rest of the state as the weekend storm takes shape just west of San Francisco...

Screenshot2024-03-29at11-23-15ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.f031273e2d5d9815e93f3fa771e82e90.png

Before the rain arrives sometime sat. night, winds ...and likely some dust... will be the bigger concern tomorrow as the Low bringing the rain bottoms out causing a pretty impressive wind event as it starts progressing toward the state. Possible we see winds in the 35-45MPH range at some point tomorrow afternoon.  One more day in the 80s as well before temps nose dive on Sunday..

As it looks right now, Sunday may be quite Wet, with the potential of seeing between .50" - 1" of rainfall valley -wide before the storm heads out Monday or Tuesday.  While dynamics aren't especially favorable, Thunderstorm chances do exist, esp later on Sunday / Monday. More clearing behind the main frontal band = more insolation = higher chances for storms.. We'll see.

Once the storm heads east, temps rebound to the upper 70s / lower 80s by the end of the week..   ....Before yet another storm ( ...or two??? )  tries to swing through the state sometime between the 6th - 10th. 

Unfortunately, one of those storms may end up spoiling viewing of the upcoming Eclipse both here and across areas back east where the path of totality is set to cross..  Hoping the forecast changes and the storm(s) that would impact eclipse viewing are erased..




While watching things  -cautiously,  once those two(?) storms roll through,  if they do,   that might be the curtain call for this active pattern, here at least,  with a quick rebound in temperatures / much direr conditions ahead as mid month rolls in..  Again, cautiously optimistic -for now-  since we've seen " the end " of the current pattern show up a couple timesin the day to day model runs, only to have the cooler / wetter weather outcomes extend it's welcome  ( ..or un welcome, ...if you're getting tired of the roller coaster ride  ) again. 

That said, more and more longer range weather model thoughts seem to be settling on things turning much quieter once past the 10th. ...We'll see...


An interesting tidbit on rain ( ..beyond " spit " / " Barely wets the ground " light shower activity ) and well below normal chill  on Easter in Phoenix..

Since records started to be kept in the late 1800's, Phoenix has only seen rain 11 times on Easter.  Last time that occurred was 25 years ago, in 1999.

That was also the last time it was ...ahem, " cold "  on Easter here.  Current forecast calls for 59F on Sunday, which will be well below the typical 80s ( ..and/ or the occasional 90F reading ) we see on Easter here.



Diving a little deeper for a minute or two,  things get a touch more interesting.. 

While cooler springs / Mountain Snow pack that lingers well into the spring ( ..Like last year.. ) often can spell doom for Monsoon season ( ..Uh, last year,  lol )  this year might offer something different. Have to look again, but, something similar may have occurred during the last wet summer year.

Noting the above wx weirdness around Easter of the same year, If you look at how the Monsoon season of 1999 played out, it was quite wet for both Phoenix 1999: 5.19",  vs a yearly average of 2.43"  ...and Tucson  1999: 8.33",  vs a yearly average of 5.69"

Curious as to -any- additional longer term thoughts as i look for some early season hints regarding what we might be looking at in a few months,  was reading over some early summer 2024 forecast thoughts from a couple Ag. - related sites / etc. Both seem to think a large area of High Pressure may set up somewhere over the Plains as we get into Summer, which may lead to some deg. of drought and above normal heat for the Plains / Midwest..

Fairly often, - but not always... a drier / hotter Plains / Midwest - type of Wx set up during mid/ late Summer can signal a wetter / cool -ish signal for the Southwest..  Something that isn't being suggested by any of the longer term forecast models right now..

On one site, 2021 and 1936 were sited as potential analog years for their thoughts on what the summer ahead could look like.  2021 was wet here..  and when Tucson came within about an inch of breaking their wettest Monsoon on record.

1936 was slightly wetter than average here, while fairly wet in Tucson, though not as wet as 2021 ...With rainfall totals landing closer to what they saw in 1999.

While a curious coincidence, for me at least,   this by no means means the same kind of outcome will occur this year..

That said, everyone was convinced 2021 was going to be dry, and look what happened. 

At this point, personally not anticipating a wet summer ahead,  but do hope the summer ahead doesn't end up being  " The Depressingly Abysmal Monsoon,  Part #2 ". 

Don't need  another  645 people ( ..last summers total heat - related total deaths )  to loose their lives ...to another summer of un- ending, extreme heat either.

For now, lets see if the roller coaster ride ends,  and we can start cranking up the heat a bit more...  The rest?   ...We'll deal with later.. :greenthumb:

  • Like 1
Posted

@UK_Palms Here so far this year I have received 7.7 inches of rain. There also appears to be a ssw north of the UK which is pushing very cold air all the way down to the Canary Islands, whilst avoiding the Uk. Then as the air gets brought up from Spain towards us as since it's not particularly warm to start with it leads to us still having cold 850hpa temps despite the air coming from Spain. In fact the 850hpa temps in southern Poland are currently warmer than over the canaries! The same for Spain, it's currently warmer here than in most of southern Spain. Currently 4c warmer than Málaga. It's also constantly sending low pressure towards us.Screenshot_20240330-140256871(1).thumb.jpg.b3310be486c351446f02990da2ef5167.jpg

 

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Posted

Today we had our second Sahara dust storm in one week. It was a very hazy and orange 😂 all day. We also had some very sandy little droplets in the evening. All in all March ends as a relatively warm and dry month except for last weekend where it felt like winter for 2 days. The last week of the month was also very windy which gets annoying when you're doing work outside. Especially after that never ending wind we had all winter long. Today's high was 18.2°C with a low of 9.3°C. 🌤️🟧🌴

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Posted
On 3/29/2024 at 1:13 PM, EJPalm05 said:

We've been getting extreme amounts of rain at my location too.

Seems to be a global phenomenon right now. We also had an extremely wet winter. My guess is that the average global temperature and especially the hot oceans are causing this with so much water being in the atmosphere.

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Posted

Waiting on the rain to start overnight and into April Fool's. Looks like between 0.5 and 1.0 - or "enough but not too much" for the yard. Beautiful.

No egg hunts tomorrow except for the hardy. A couple cool days on tap and then more Snowbird Weather (tm) expected pretty much through April with lots of 70's and 80's on tap. Hard to believe it's the Sonoran Desert.

Posted (edited)

Yesterday I had a min of 47f/8.3c with a high of 63/17.2c with 34% humidity and sunshine for most of the day. The gfs runs look a lot better and drier but we will see. The temps are around average but it is a lot wetter and cloudier than it should be.

Screenshot2024-03-31143352.thumb.png.f450a9819e78cecf62096d20bc538516.png

Edited by Foxpalms
Posted

Woke up to a very sticky 70F.  Overcast again all day with a projected high of 81F.

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chester B said:

Woke up to a very sticky 70F.  Overcast again all day with a projected high of 81F.

That’s ok going to be 101f in Laredo TX will be in the low 100’s tomorrow.  
You should try a musa Zebra or Zebrina they are very ornate and awesome looking. Would love your weather.  

Edited by Paradise Found
  • Like 1
Posted
41 minutes ago, Paradise Found said:

That’s ok going to be 101f in Laredo TX will be in the low 100’s tomorrow.  
You should try a musa Zebra or Zebrina they are very ornate and awesome looking. Would love your weather.  

I am enjoying the heat, but the humidity can be gross.  Especially when you're putting in a new garden bed.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Chester B said:

I am enjoying the heat, but the humidity can be gross.  Especially when you're putting in a new garden bed.

I was cooking Easter dinner and the humidity shot up to 62% that and the heat I was sweating and then all hell breaks loose.  The smoke alarm went off in kitchen, the kitty went hiding under the bed I ran to open the patio door and then things settle down.  Humidity is down to 58% and the sun is out  very thing is back to normal. 
Stay safe this summer.  

Edited by Paradise Found
  • Like 1

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