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What is your current yard temperature?


GottmitAlex

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A perfect, albeit slightly cooler Hump Day underway 70F at 11:53PM, on the way to the low 70s later on.. Suggested " storm " that drenched S. Cal over the last couple days?  passing through the desert with little more than maybe some broken clouds, and a breeze.. I highly doubt we'll even see a sprinkle anywhere in the valley as the front slips by.

Next warm up commences tomorrow..  Low to possibly mid - 80s by the weekend.  Next possible storm?  ...looking weaker and weaker as it's suggested arrival / passage inches closer. 


Screenshot2024-02-21at11-45-33ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.dbf880b5c6cad9cf7051d15358479d5a.png

Back to the 80s as " Spring " arrives. 

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22 hours ago, sandgroper said:

A warm but reasonably comfortable 35c in Kalbarri today with a nice breeze from the sea.

Screenshot_20240221_163221_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20240221_163259_Gallery.jpg

She’s arid up there hey. 
 

Those couple of Dutch sailors Pelsart marooned there in the 1600s from the Batavia must have wondered what the hell they’d come too there. Mind you there was more water there than the Abrolhos islands where they’d just been too. 

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Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Storm's coming in. It was quiet all day but now we already hit 60 kph within an hour. If I'm lucky I won't get hit too hard but we will see. A bit sick of it. This winter has been extremely windy in general. Glad I at least get some protection living in an urban area... Today's high was 14.2°C and the low 10.4°C. 💨🌴🤷‍♂️

Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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A perfect final Friday ( ...and weekend.. ) of February 2024.. 79F at 4:07PM after reaching 80 about an hour ago..

Weekend festivities across the Desert = :greenthumb::greenthumb: ...Could Sky Harbour ... And / or other parts of the E. Valley / rest of town see their first " official "  85F reading(s) / " Neighborhood 90s " of the year?, at least on Sunday???   We'll see.  Could be close.


Screenshot2024-02-23at16-01-25ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.9e1b0473da570ca0350dd67368090d85.png

Screenshot2024-02-23at16-05-407-DayForecast33.44N112_02W.thumb.png.55341007b40d1891ca6f60c8cc32a826.png


Forecast as we end the month and step into March ..looks :greenthumb:.  A little cooler perhaps mid week ..Earlier rain chances removed ..From Wx Underground's forecast, For now at least..     ...Then another bump up  ...Before perhaps a more pronounced cool down tries to enter the picture as we start the first full week of next month.  Possible that occurs, but have some doubts.  Looks pretty typical for the early part of March regardless if we do see it.

 

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IMG-20240223-WA0096.jpg

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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A " balmy " n'  cloudy 72F at 12: Noon as we start down the final days of February ...and " Winter " 23 /24..  ...After starting out the morning in the low 60s with a sprinkle around.   Sky Harbour managed to set a daily record high low.      Pretty mild ...for the end of Feb.    around the rest of the valley too.    Thick-ish Cloud cover slated to hang around through the day  =  We'll see if we reach the suggest high of 77F later.  Reached 83 -briefly- yesterday.

Screenshot2024-02-26at11-16-42USNationalWeatherServicePhoenixArizonaPhoenixAZ.png.871fb327ba83f38f595cc47710a0bbb3.png

Not sure what we bottomed out at, but 99% sure it wasn't lower than 60..   A sort of Monsoon-ish feel to the air this morning..  Regardless..


Final week of Feb. / start of March   looks ..pretty normal, imo.


Screenshot2024-02-26at11-50-09ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.07e988ce95b8f3499550d753d4e51176.png

..That said, depending on how a forecast trough sets up next week, we could see a week so so spell of slightly below average Temps ...If that trough digs deep enough to spread cooler air into the lower Southwestern U.S.    Models are all over the place atm, ..so,  ...we'll see..   No rain, trough slides by more to the north,  and sunnier than forecast through that period?  Will be tough to get it to cool off too much since increasing sun angle is quickly having a bigger influence on surface heating..

By the 5th of next month, we'll be crossing the 50deg mark as it relates to where the sun sits at  Solar Noon in the sky..  Higher sun angle = warmer ...typically anyway.. Much harder for lows to reach freezing at least. By the end of the month, the sun ( at Noon ) will be sitting at 60+ deg. overhead.

Beyond what cool-ish weather we might see during the first 12 or so days next month, that may be the last " cool " spell for the season here as the MJO slides into phase 4, which can signal a " warmer West " type of pattern this time of year.  Anything can happen of course, but, at least as it reads on the chart below, odds tilt warmer.  While they've backed off,  there have been occasional whispers in some of the model run output the past few days teasing some mid / upper 80F heat making it's first appearance in the desert roughly mid month.  Don't believe it, ..but, not totally writing it off - for now-   ...We'll see.   Weather looks pretty good as we kick off  " spring " regardless.

Today's MJO  GFS / ECMWF forecasts:


Screenshot2024-02-26at12-21-30CPC-ClimateWeatherLinkageMadden-JulianOscillation.png.cf4c9da0f9f7dddc8af21df65b8974b0.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at12-22-00CPC-ClimateWeatherLinkageMadden-JulianOscillation.png.f388bc5fefec67a9a99a42f23b9c5ca4.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at12-22-29CPC-ClimateWeatherLinkageMadden-JulianOscillation.png.258d2f5e5e167817a63824c8bb3b28f5.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at12-22-50CPC-ClimateWeatherLinkageMadden-JulianOscillation.png.9927d03aa84fe5af3f07600cbd91bd1e.png



MAM time frame Composite Chart ( Temperatures )

Screenshot2024-02-26at12-23-43ClimatePredictionCenter-MJOTemperatureCompositesandSignificance.png.2a37d8cf6a27bce96c75042034befe71.png

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11:35PM and a quite mild 62F..  Still in the upper 60s / low 70s in some spots around the E. Valley.  Will cool more by Dawn obviously, esp if cloud cover breaks, but...

Quite unusual to see such readings  ...at the end of   ...February.


Screenshot2024-02-26at23-32-26ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.bf5e13ad34349805dd7c1d2a82b248ce.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-32-36ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.035ba0e9fef3cebd7271b1574e743174.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-32-59ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.298028a4665e053e8f886dcd7cd656e2.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-33-15ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d3e6936652f80abbd6f1329520170ebe.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-33-27ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.f905f3251d3785aad16a07b8fba7b65c.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-33-41ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.14f9da88d9e01ba74467ee24b85bfb76.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-33-49ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.7bef87de31903ba9df7da81bea622cff.png

Screenshot2024-02-26at23-34-24ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.8b5f6ffc4944ce2224eeb29a74767783.png

 

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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72F at 9am with a projected high of 84F, which is about the same as yesterday.

 

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80 degrees today and the forecast looks amazing. The best time in this part of Florida is now.

Screenshot_20240228-121928.png

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A perfect 75F at 11:25AM  as we await to see if we'll see any rouge shower/ Thunderstorm / Monsoon-esque outflow wind activity skirt this side of the valley later..

Forecast as we finish out Feb and start spring looking steady ..and mild..  


Screenshot2024-02-28at11-31-16ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.115e1ef8fa0b271c035bff64159aaf5e.png

As for this afternoon, an interesting ..and slightly early... taste of " transitional " weather for S. Central and S. AZ  as a cut off low that had been hanging off N. Central Baja the past several days finally decides to head east across far S. AZ through the day. Can see it lurking to our southwest over the far N. end of the Gulf of CA atm. on Satellite.  A few lightning strikes being detected  W. S.W. of Tucson as well..

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Baja-truecolor-1821Z-20240228_counties-usstrd-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-73-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.8b5717918df9e7989b06b175d8ee31d5.gif


While not the most ideal set up for them, should be jusst warm enough / just enough CAPE around this end of the state today to fire off a few weak Thunderstorms / heavier showers as the COL tracks E.N.E. across S. AZ / S. N.M. later..

As it looks right now,  Best rain / possible storm chances should set up south of a line running from ~ roughly~ Gila Bend to Safford,  with far S. / S.E AZ, and SW. N.M  seeing the best opportunities for stronger storm activity, should any develop. 

East / S.E. portion of the valley will be sitting right on the northern-most fringe of any activity passing by..  Close enough that you can't totally rule out seeing a few rain drops / perhaps a clap or two of thunder.  

If we see anything creep into this side of town from the south / southeast, it will likely be light, brief, ..and / or in the dissipating stage.

Because the overall set up is similar to what we'd see during the summer ( Moisture moving north from Mexico/ Gulf of CA ), it's possible any stronger activity to our south could generate a brief, gusty outflow boundary complete w/ a touch of dust that rolls further north toward Phoenix..  We'll see.. 

Storm setups like this this time of year are the first vague hint of transitioning from polar influenced, cooler winter weather,  to a warmer season Wx pattern that is influenced by the tropics here in the desert.

Once the sun sets, any lingering showers generated head east across the state line, where it could cause some trouble for the Gulf coast later. 



Back to your normal, ...and perfect.. early March weather after that..  For now.

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Got a little surprise rain today - maybe an 1/8 inch - to add to the impressive total from the first part of the month.

70's/40's as far as the eye can see and the snowbirds are enjoying it, as am I.

Got almost all the re-potting done and have a bunch of cactus started from seed.

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9 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:




While not the most ideal set up for them, should be jusst warm enough / just enough CAPE around this end of the state today to fire off a few weak Thunderstorms / heavier showers as the COL tracks E.N.E. across S. AZ / S. N.M. later..

As it looks right now,  Best rain / possible storm chances should set up south of a line running from ~ roughly~ Gila Bend to Safford,  with far S. / S.E AZ, and SW. N.M  seeing the best opportunities for stronger storm activity, should any develop. 

East / S.E. portion of the valley will be sitting right on the northern-most fringe of any activity passing by..  Close enough that you can't totally rule out seeing a few rain drops / perhaps a clap or two of thunder.  

If we see anything creep into this side of town from the south / southeast, it will likely be light, brief, ..and / or in the dissipating stage.

Because the overall set up is similar to what we'd see during the summer ( Moisture moving north from Mexico/ Gulf of CA ), it's possible any stronger activity to our south could generate a brief, gusty outflow boundary complete w/ a touch of dust that rolls further north toward Phoenix..  We'll see.. 

Storm setups like this this time of year are the first vague hint of transitioning from polar influenced, cooler winter weather,  to a warmer season Wx pattern that is influenced by the tropics here in the desert.

Once the sun sets, any lingering showers generated head east across the state line, where it could cause some trouble for the Gulf coast later. 



 

While we barely avoided rainfall here, rest of this morning's thoughts on the forecast today were a triple scoring home run..

 No surprises when you trust your gut.

Rain may have stayed just south of Chandler / rest of this side of town, but not the chilly dust storm ( More haze and a Leaf Blizzard than your typical summer - season wall of dust ) generated as what storms managed to form to my south / southeast approached town.

That said, dust generated was dense enough in some parts of town as it rolled in / northwest ward across the valley that the NWS office here issued a rare -for this time of year-  Thunderstorm generated  Dust Storm Warning.

As thought,  as soon as the sun set, lingering debris clouds hanging overhead cleared out..

Reached 78 briefly before the clouds rolled in. Dropped to about 63F when the gust front passed.  59F now ( 8:23PM )  ...Upper 70s back in action tomorrow. 

A 95 frame look at how this unusual, for February " Taste of the Monsoon <TM>" played out on Satellite thru the day.  Can see just how close Thunderstorm activity got to this side of town. 

Had the thicker mid level cloud shield not overspread the area right as we reached peak heating for the day, there might have been just enough CAPE to get storm activity into my back yard.   Maybe next time..


CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Desert_SW-truecolor-0306Z-20240229_counties-map-glm_flash_noBar-95-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.c23b555b6467b668c0ef8087950cdc06.gif

As i'd suspected earlier, strongest storms are currently headed into the Boot heel of N.M.

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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A Sunny,  Seventy Five Deg. at 1:27PM,  on your 1st Saturday of March / 2nd day of  " Spring " ...

Forecast as March gets underway??.. Can't ask for nicer Wea'tter  ...Unless enjoying a Spring Break getaway somewhere in Hawaii, Mexico, or Miami ( maybe ):mrlooney:


Screenshot2024-03-02at13-18-21ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.3d2b5e9c5dd80f457ba15c3a795f67ed.png


Some ramble -y musings as i look into the monthly crystal ball... 

" Overall " Pattern ..Here at least.. looks pretty typical.  Still some suggestions of squeezing out one more minor cool down before mid - month, but i have my doubts..   Regardless,

For now..  Appears ...if that does occur,  that may be it for the cool stuff..  All the Forecast model data i'm seeing is suggesting the pattern trends warmer, esp. beyond the 15 - 20th..

Rain?? ..We'll see.. There might be some gas left in the tank for one final dose of " spring showers " ...but again,  We'll see.. Some Model runs suggests a storm or two might roll through - at some point  before the 20th.  Others keep any possible precip. ( except maybe sprinkles )  bottled up north as far out as the longest forecast goes.. 

Heat? ...We'll see about that also.  If you trust Accuweather's thoughts  ( Who does that,  lol )  March might be nice ..but lean mild, though a pinch warmer than last year..

Other -current-  Wx model thoughts are a bit more varied.. GFS = Mild / warm at times ...But no mid / upper 80s / first 90s of the year  ..Though some runs continue to hint warmer, down the line,  at times..

GEFS 840 hours = Suggesting that cool-ish period before the 20th / warming afterwards / into the start of April..

ECMWF = Mixed thoughts as well, though it too seems to be picking up on a warmer lean toward the end of it's current run ( 12Z / 240 hours )


...Then there's ...This kid..  A  new addition to the T - Tidbits Model Rider's toolbox..   ...And a link to more info. regarding it..
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/177/editorial/aifs-launched   

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system



" Supposedly " the model incorporates AI learning into it's " thoughts.. We'll see how good it is  ...or isn't...  Regardless.....

Of all the current model runs, the " New " EC - AIFS has been leaning the warmest.. 

3 days, leading into St. Patty's Day, as of today's 12Z run..  ** NOTE  the warm up for California too.. Model data goes out 360 Hours, compared to only 240Hrs. -at the most- for the ECMWF.


Screenshot2024-03-02at13-48-44EC-AIFSModel.png.e2e0150c688c25a7f0c8f83e024009da.png


Screenshot2024-03-02at13-57-15EC-AIFSModel.png.2477ee12016f5e6723d44849a98533c2.png

Screenshot2024-03-02at13-49-23EC-AIFSModel.png.acc4794c29943fa9e7a6d7a142223d63.png

Has been leaning warm  -for the most part-  since launched ( on Tidbits ) a few days ago.

Interestingly, WX Underground has been picking up on a similar warm up starting around the 10-11th. Will be closing in on the 17th in a couple days, so it will be 🤔 to see what it thinks at that time.

E' gardless,  Should be fun to follow / see if data from it is trustworthy.  I'm all for a taste of the 90's by mid March / before April 1st / Easter.

I think everyone in CA is getting a bit worn out on constant clouds / rain at this point too.  Time for a change??

**** As usual, everything currently suggested can change ***  Take  the above mentioned thoughts with a grain of Salt..

Here,   more heat  now,  =  better  potential   for making up for last years  S🤬-y  Monsoon,   ....even if the summer ahead ends up jusstt either side of average.    Anything ..except a repeat of last year,  Please..  :greenthumb:





 

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

E' gardless,  Should be fun to follow / see if data from it is trustworthy.  I'm all for a taste of the 90's by mid March / before April 1st / Easter.

...Don't tease me, New Wx model.. 🤣😂

18Z...

82F, at 11am, on St. Pat's Day???  First 90's of the year the day before???  ...Interr - estin,' Entertainin'  thoughts for sure.



Screenshot2024-03-02at19-27-47EC-AIFSModel.png.c6f0f39e92751a32239e9d447b361938.png


Screenshot2024-03-02at19-28-29EC-AIFSModel.png.de791cf435da0dec48a2bbffcb82b5e1.png

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This whole week has been splendid! Temperatures haven't changed too much but it was finally dry and sunny. No rain, no wind, no grey days. Just nice! I got to do all the pruning and I also have the first plants in the ground. Spring is fully on and with the mild temps we had for weeks almost everything in my garden is already pushing and growing. Much of nature as well. Today's high was 21.6°C with a low of 11.1°C. ☀️🌴:greenthumb:

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Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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129 pages of backyard temp readings, so my question to y'all is what are you looking for? What kind of temps make you happy? 

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A pleasant and partly cloudy 53F start to a new work week, headed for the low 70's later on..

As it looks right now,  Week ahead looks a little warmer ..then cooler, briefly,   ...Perhaps our final cool day for this side of the year...  before.....


Watching it closely the past few days,  our " newest WX model on the block "  is holding steadfast in it's suggestions for our first taste of " Spring Heat "  ...starting sometime after the 10-12th.. 

Current GFS seems to be warming up to the idea too, ...though it's thoughts are more tempered, heat-wise ( No 90s )  ...For now at least.

Hints of that heat starting to creep into Wx Undergrounds 10 day forecast as well..  So, .....We'll see..  Could the new kid on the block  have some game???


Screenshot2024-03-04at07-35-53ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.3e3f5f89b4404a1358a8d86eb3981e16.png




EC -AIFS  ..The new kid..  all in on a stretch of 90s / perhaps the first " neighborhood " 100's of the year  ahead.. 

IF it pans out. 

Meantime, enjoy that mid / upper 60s on Thursday.  Might be the last " cool  " day for awhile..

Unlike here, where the heat has been slowly building / rain has all but shut off,  an abrupt switch from persistently cooler n' cloudy / rainy,  to drier, ...and a lil' toasty ( for some )  could catch some folks in CA by surprise.  ...Even if such a pattern change is welcomed by many.      We'll  see... :greenthumb:


Screenshot2024-03-04at07-45-59EC-AIFSModel.png.3e1f4ff44918197f510ce0fefd19e738.png

Screenshot2024-03-04at07-46-29EC-AIFSModel.png.eca75c6bdd78398754113967e54ec131.png

Screenshot2024-03-04at07-46-52EC-AIFSModel.png.d19faf7dfe5e3f573768ee6d9f96a5a7.png

Screenshot2024-03-04at07-47-26EC-AIFSModel.png.593eaf0fdb357d1fe3528987660856b5.png
 

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A pleasant 66 w/ passing Cirrus overhead at 10:49AM ..Headed for the mid 70's later..  Hangin' there until Thursday when a passing cold front will drop temps back to the mid 60's  ..for a day..   ...And might bring a few showers / possible weak, iso. T- storms?? to the valley.   Not expecting much -if it even rains-  at all down here... As usual as we head into the warmer season, better precip. chances for the Ft. hills / upper elevations.

Temps head upward,  from Friday onward.

For now,   EC - AIFS model runs are still lookin'  toasty  as we head toward mid - month.  Taken the suggestion of mid / upper 90F readings on the hottest days out of the more recent forecast runs though ...for the moment at least..

GFS now fully on board w/ some " Spring Heat "  for the same time frame, ...and a day or two beyond ( Goes out to 384 hours, vs. the EC AIFS which only goes out to 360 Hours ) also.

" Heat " may not be confined to the low deserts either.. Plenty of 80s on the maps for S. Cal,  parts of the Cen. Valley, and the Bay Area while we cook..  Day or two where temps. might reach 90 suggested by Pivotol Wx's more detailed surface temperature scale around Los Angeles as well.. 

We'll see...  

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After a couple of weeks spent in cooler weather offshore on the Abrolhos Islands I'm back in the city, today heading for a sunny top of 33c.

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Currently 26c at 9.30am heading for a sunny top of 35c

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On 3/4/2024 at 8:52 AM, Mauna Kea Cloudforest said:

129 pages of backyard temp readings, so my question to y'all is what are you looking for? What kind of temps make you happy? 

Anywhere from 25-35C / 77F - 95F with lots of sun and low humidity. Kind of Mediterranean-like conditions really, so basically May - September weather here as the rest of the year is cool and wet at my northern latitude (51N).

The 2nd week of September 2023 was just perfect here. Nothing excessively hot, but a week straight of 32-35C / 90-95F temps here and lots of sun. Balmy nights as well with minimums close to 20C / 68F. Cannot ask for more in September at 51N.

721A1CE2-223E-4815-A243-EB09E6634536.thumb.jpeg.5947ba0a22fc86665a5087f806cdd57f.jpeg


Right now I am dealing with one of the wettest and dullest 6 month periods on record in my location. I have had 18 inches of rainfall since October alone and below average sunshine, although nights have been fairly mild. It has been such a wet autumn and winter. I look forward to the drier, sunnier and warmer conditions as we approach summer. I expect this summer to follow a Mediterranean climate pattern again for London and southeast England. The taps will shut off again in April/May and June especially will be dry as a bone. July as well too. We will see though.

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Currently 24c at 6.00am heading for a top of 30c with, hopefully, a possible light shower. It would be nice to see a spot of rain but I'll believe it when I see it.

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On 2/28/2024 at 7:11 PM, Palm Sundae said:

Got a little surprise rain today - maybe an 1/8 inch - to add to the impressive total from the first part of the month.

.... and off to a good start for March with about 0.2" of wet stuff this PM. Back to the 70's/40's stuff shortly for about a week before the 80's start coming in. Currently 50 under alternating rain and sun as mini storms pass thru.

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After the little storm than could  ..ahem, did  over perform yesterday, a quieter ..and warmer... day ahead??  61F and partly cloudy at 10:02AM is already a warmer start than yesterday..  That said...

 ..what was supposed to be more of a " nuisance "/ spitter  than an actual rain maker,  yesterday's storm turned out to be quite eventful for many..  Also brought another round of  " chilly " Monsoon -esque storms to the valley..   And could drag a few more showers / Iso. T- shower or two?  down into parts of the valley from the foothills north / northeast of town later today.

Rainfall totals from what was only supposed to bring sprinkles.. The 0.08" here in Chandler is a tad deceiving  since, as hard as it rained, for 45mins, i'm 99% sure at least .25" fell in the back yard.. 

Rainlog.org data looks more in - line w/ what i saw, vs what the MCFCD gauge here picked up.   Regardless, far more than what was expected, esp. in parts of the valley where thunderstorm activity was strongest.

As far as overall T- storm activity was concerned, a step up from the last event, but still too cool for good / longer lasting storms ( Higher tops /  More widespread / longer lasting lightning activity as storms moved across town ).

MCFCD Rainfall totals:


Screenshot2024-03-08at10-06-17ALERTDataMap.thumb.png.9e3087284424f77827db148ee3597303.png

Rainlog.org. Totals:

Screenshot2024-03-08at11-03-48Rainlog_org.thumb.png.d5e50e5b738ea85b91ba655c87b07527.png


Looking ahead? ..while temps will trend warmer, at times,  it appears both the GFS and EC - AIFS have dropped the more major warm up both Wx Models had been advertising ....Or at least kicked the potential of it further down the road, ...more past mid - March ...For now at least..  Low 80s may be the best we see next week.

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Instead,  forecasts are  re- visiting a possible continuation of a messy pattern of brief warm ups, followed by both the potential for more spring shower / storm potential here, ..and the potential for a pretty decent snow event across New Mexico late next week / next weekend.. 

Not sold on that myself, but,  Appears some " March Madness " is in the cards now / Any significant  warm up is off the table / delayed. 🤷‍♂️



Checking in?   El Nino??  Dead ....and rapidly getting dead- er.. ..At least as far as SST readings in the Equatorial E. Pacific are looking.. Still some Nino lean momentum in the Atmosphere though ...or so it appears, for now.


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Taking a quick,  first glimpse into the summer ahead?   NMME  data, going out to October is out.  While it is VERY  early,  duh..   and ..like 2021,  can't assume the current outlooks will pan out, but,   ..Even this far out,  what is suggested by a majority of the models thru the upcoming Monsoon Season  isn't a good look..   Hopefully it changes a bit as we get closer to June ...otherwise,  ....could be another ugly summer ahead..  Hopefully not / Please be dead wrong..

Time will tell..




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4 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 ....And could drag a few more showers / Iso. T- shower or two?  down into parts of the valley from the foothills north / northeast of town later today.

69F at 4:25PM..

As thought, some mountain showers / weak T- storms attempting to roll south / Southeast off the rim as a spoke of energy ( Purple dashed line ) swings south east down the back side of the departing Cutoff Low..


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Lots of dry air over the valley ( Solid Dk. Yellow line ) being reinforced by some drier air at the surface moving in from the W.N.W. ( thin yellow lines )

Red lines depict the slow, but general descent of shower activity off the foothills toward the valley. 

 Looking at the storms on the current Satellite loop, Unless they become strong enough to overcome drier air overhead, other than some debris cloudiness / some sprinkles for those living closest to the Ft. hills / some breezes from that direction later,  highly doubt any of the currently stronger activity up there reaches the valley, let alone this side of town..  Are mainly terrain driven and will likely loose most of their support for continued development as they try to slide further south.

During similar setups in July or August, they'd have a better chance of rolling into / trough town ( More heat to provide energy / help destabilize the atmosphere over the valley as they roll south / southwest ).



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Finally stopped raining. Everything is a pond. I dunno how much rain we've got in the past few weeks, but it's a lot. 

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17 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 Looking at the storms on the current Satellite loop, Unless they become strong enough to overcome drier air overhead,  other than some debris cloudiness / some sprinkles for those living closest to the Ft. hills / some breezes from that direction later,  highly doubt any of the currently stronger activity up there reaches the valley, let alone this side of town..  Are mainly terrain driven and will likely loose most of their support for continued development as they try to slide further south.

Sure enough, our little storm that keeps on giving provided a few spots on the northern fringes of the N.W. and N. East Valley with more rain, some hail ( N.W. side of town ) and some Friday Night Lightning ..off in the distance.

Storms that made it out of the Foothills looked strong enough to make the journey south toward this side of town, but fizzled out.. Just a couple minutes of drops in the back yard..

Regardless, a very Monsoon season - like set up, just w/ much less energy to keep the show going..

Rainfall totals:  Communities on the N.W. / West side of town / N.W. of Fountain Hills, and far N.E. Mesa were the big winners last night.


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65F at 10:08AM on the way to the mid 70s later, depending on if it stays clear or more high clouds move in ( ..and / or if we see more debris stuff drift down from the Ft. hills later )

Nice weekend / start of the week, before our next " Inside slider " rolls down the Great Basin from the Pac. N.W.  May end up hung up over the S.W. by next weekend, providing another opportunity for showers / storms ...and snowfall for N.M.  -We'll see..

For the moment ( ..I don't expect it to hold )  Wx Underground 10 day tries to turn up the heat again by St. Patty's day / start of the following week.. 

I'll believe it, ...if or when...  i see it.

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Much more pleasant weather for the coming week in Perth, cool nights and comfortable days, far better than the nasty heat of summer. I like autumn, I like the cooler change and the chance of a bit of rain, mostly in the second half of the season but it is certainly a welcome relief.

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Another week of pure spring, sunny with nice temps. But in the beginning some nights were very cold. One time it got down below 2°C while the daytime high was above 14°C. It's has been dry for two weeks now but we're awaiting some rain this night. Today's high was 17.6°C with a low of 11.1°C. ☀️🌴🌡️

Yes it's me Hortulanus 😂

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After the front it was 68 for the high today. Orlando meanwhile had spots over 80 and most of the state was closer to 75 than 70.  The spring sea breeze season is here that keeps the nature coast cooler for a while in springtime.

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26 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

After the front it was 68 for the high today. Orlando meanwhile had spots over 80 and most of the state was closer to 75 than 70.  The spring sea breeze season is here that keeps the nature coast cooler for a while in springtime.

It managed to get into the 80s here today.  Stopped by Leu Gardens toward the end of the plant sale today.  It felt comfortably warm here.  As I was coming back, I noticed once I got past Davenport the temperature started dropping like a rock.  When I got out of the car, I could definitely tell the front had made it here.  It's in the mid-60s outside here, but the UHI is keeping most of Orlando in the 70s.  At this point, it's warmer in Orlando than on the east coast at the same latitude.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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3 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

.  At this point, it's warmer in Orlando than on the east coast at the same latitude.

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That's what also happens here. The urban heat island keeps the city centre warmer than the sea does on the east coast.

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Despite the exceptionally mild February, March is currently running a bit below average here. It has certainly been on the cool side, even though there hasn’t been any proper cold or frost. I guess it’s where we are in between that winter - spring transitional phase. We need to get an injection of warmth into the UK.

It will be turning milder for sure in the coming days, but I’m not sure I believe these Met Office figures. We will see.

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The first 20C hPa airmass of 2024 has now been modelled for the UK, yesterday. Of course it is highly unlikely to verify, but such a warm air mass being modelled in mid-March would have been totally unthinkable even just a decade ago. This would have been pretty damn high for mid-summer even ‘back in the day’. For context, 21C hPa temps in September 2023 generated 33-34C temps at ground level, or 2 meters. And we had 25C hPa’s/uppers in July 2022 when we reached 40C.

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There definitely seems to be way more warm/hot air to tap into nowadays coming up from Iberia and Africa. If this 20C hPa/airmass scenario came off, we would be looking at close to 30C temps probably around the 20th March, assuming there is lots of sun too for solar heating. Of course it won’t happen though. But it shows what is possible in todays climate. 👀

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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A pleasant 68-70F around town at 9:57AM  on the way to somewhere in the upper 70s / low 80s later.

Week ahead looking reasonable, though perhaps cooling off again toward the end.. Depending on what it does as it swings into AZ, area of low pressure that may cut off as it heads toward AZ toward the end of the week may up the chances for another round of showers and storms??


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Some model runs keep the storm passing to our north / N. east before it might get hung up over W. TX for a couple days. Other model " thoughts " bring it west south west across the state, then have it hang out somewhere near Yuma for a couple days before getting kicked to the east..

Stays more north and east as it passes..no rain / minimal -at best-  chances for the deserts. More S.S.W.'ly track might tug more moisture north out of N. Mexico. We'll see what happens.

Snow chances for New Mexico are still on the board as well..

For now, possible warm up suggested beyond that? ..Another wait n' see.. Models - all of them-  are really struggling w/ the Wx pattern over the area as we reach " Trad.  Spring "   Temps. want to warm, but a dying El Nino, + some other factors continue to exert their messy interference game across the Pacific for now.. So...

In essence:  " ...I'll believe it,  when i see it "  if it occurs  is the name of the game. 

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7 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Despite the exceptionally mild February, March is currently running a bit below average here. It has certainly been on the cool side, even though there hasn’t been any proper cold or frost. I guess it’s where we are in between that winter - spring transitional phase. We need to get an injection of warmth into the UK.

It will be turning milder for sure in the coming days, but I’m not sure I believe these Met Office figures. We will see.

67651B33-9BA1-4D2A-8EB1-B9CE028731FF.thumb.jpeg.3db2d1ba86410155babde8dfd0586e31.jpeg


The first 20C hPa airmass of 2024 has now been modelled for the UK, yesterday. Of course it is highly unlikely to verify, but such a warm air mass being modelled in mid-March would have been totally unthinkable even just a decade ago. This would have been pretty damn high for mid-summer even ‘back in the day’. For context, 21C hPa temps in September 2023 generated 33-34C temps at ground level, or 2 meters. And we had 25C hPa’s/uppers in July 2022 when we reached 40C.

E5AF4995-D44D-4CC4-A6CF-67757DF791EE.png.9ed0e426e65a89448125dc1008895182.png


There definitely seems to be way more warm/hot air to tap into nowadays coming up from Iberia and Africa. If this 20C hPa/airmass scenario came off, we would be looking at close to 30C temps probably around the 20th March, assuming there is lots of sun too for solar heating. Of course it won’t happen though. But it shows what is possible in todays climate. 👀

I also don't trust those metoffice temps, it has been like that for the past few days. I'm guessing for this week the highest will be between 16-18c. If the skies were clear then maybe warmer. 

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A mild 71F at 2:55PM as we await the next bout of spring showers / storms headed our way..

End of the week / start of the second half of March looks showery ...and possibly a bit stormy  as the same Upper Level Low that dumped snow all over Denver  cuts off from the jet stream and retrogrades W.S.W toward roughly Yuma and sits there for a couple days under a rex block pattern setting up for the weekend over the west ...before slowwllyy heading east sometime after the start of next week.


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Not atypical as the overall Wx pattern starts transitioning toward La Nina but is still influenced by El Nino..

One of those weird situations where the farther west / northwest one heads, the better the weather will be. In fact, looking at various forecast thoughts, Bay Area / Central Valley should have a pretty nice weekend ahead while things stay unsettled here, ...at least for the front half of the weekend.



Can see the low currently slipping W.S.W. across the NV. / AZ. CA. border atm on Satellite. Where it ends up will influence how much moisture it pulls up into AZ from the Gulf ( of CA ) and exactly where storms / heavier shower activity will form sometime this evening, but most especially ( ...for the valley at least ) tomorrow..  Current thinking is .15" - .25" for the low deserts, with higher totals possible for the foothills. Plenty of Snow chances w/ this thing as well up on the Rim / N.E. AZ and parts of N.M. later.  While the valley should trend drier as we head into the weekend, Shower/ Storm / Snow chances will hang around the high country / E'rn AZ thru -at least- Monday.

I'd like to see it warmer than currently forecast for optimal storm chances but.. We'll get what we get.


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Headed into the last half of the month / start of Trad. Spring after this storm heads out,  ..things look messy atm,  imo.. 

While the current 10 day from Wx underground is still advertising a decent warm up as we reach the middle of next week, ..i'm very skeptical it actually pans out..  Everything i see from both the GFS and EC AIFS can't settle on a longer term outcome.. Some model runs leaning warmer / drier, others keeping things unsettled w, / the potential for more passing showers ...with any major warm up delayed. 

We'll see.. 



On a side note, after today, Solar noon Sun angle will be no lower than 55deg.  Reach 61deg. by the end of the month.  Getting harder to keep the heat away.


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Min of 49f/9.5 with a high of 64.8f/18.2c with 59% humidity. Which means the Metoffice forecast was actually closer.  If we had crystal clear skies all day, rather than a mix of rain cloud and sunshine, I'm sure it would of been warmer.  From what the gfs models are showing the 23rd has potential to reach 70f+ with high pressure and a jet stream brining air over from northern Africa with 10c 850hpa temps and the sun angle being 40 degrees.  Tomorrow there's a possibility of thunderstorms with a 10% tornado risk.

 

 

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Currently 26c at 9.30am heading for a sunny top of 33c.

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