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What is your current yard temperature?


GottmitAlex

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Another toasty start, but ..doesn't feel quite as hot as the last few days thanks in part to a decent uptick in moisture moving north from a large, dying MCV that rolled west  across Northern Sonora last night. Dew point is currently sitting at about 60deg, w/ humidity at 30%

On track for another torture fest later but, still looking like -for now,  at least-  today will be the last 115+ afternoon. 116-118F is the forecast here, while Phoenix ( ..at the usual spot ) should add another day at / above 118F ( would be the 3rd day in a row at 119F forecast ) ..which would be a record.


302298457_Screenshot2023-07-21at11-07-35ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.cfbf90d87099dabcae99b8d9a7cec324.png


Tucson looks hot today as well though, similar to what has occurred down there a couple times this week, they may see some afternoon / evening relief if storm activity forecast for the area later develops and rolls into town.


Stays hot for the weekend / next week but moisture continues to build across the state as the 4c High wanders ..then hangs out over a better position near the 4 corners. This, plus a back door cold front that will try to move west across southwestern N.M., and a likely uptick in Gulf surge activity should get us into a better position for better  -but not perfect-  rain chances going into next week..

May be a brief down trend in rain chances locally mid week before they trend up again later ..a fairly typical pattern really.



Today's Gulf of CA SST reading check in: ..exactly what i want to see... 30C temps filling in across the N. Gulf.. Some near shore pockets of 31 / 32C ( 32C pockets tough to see on this map ) ..also filling in a little better. 


gulfcalf_fc.thumb.gif.35a5563bde1657340b247f1e09019d00.gif

Remember, Gulf of CA SSTs  over ~approx. 29.5C  have been directly linked to initiating heavy rain over AZ within a few days of the northern Gulf reaching that threshold.  Passing this threshold also increases Gulf surge activity as well.

Anything over that 29.5C reading?  ..only tilts the odds towards increased rainfall.. so 30C ..and maybe 31C temps filling in = good omen for rainfall ..as long as other factors involved cooperate to get that moisture pooling over the state instead of shoving it west or southwest, keeping it from reaching the state...  We'll see.





A couple interesting notes for 🤔:


Was looking at the two years frequently noted in this latest major heatwave ( ..esp. since we've broken all the records from both years this year ) and found something interesting..

Both 1974 and 1995 were incredibly hot, ..but also came in with decent rainfall totals for the monsoon season in each year, for both Tucson and Phoenix.  In both examples, Tucson wins this contest, though Phoenix does alright too.

Monsoon onset dates for both years ** Using the 3 day average of 55deg Dew point readings rule **:

1974:  July 1st = Early Onset

1995:  July 11th,  = Late Onset  ..Which is also when we reached the 3 day dew point average this year.


Tucson.. Typical Monsoon season rainfall average = 5.69"

1974:


360988326_Screenshot2023-07-21at10-38-11Monsoon.png.2610830b7f164c67ec9ed00967131d3f.png

1995:

217763591_Screenshot2023-07-21at10-37-48Monsoon.png.d69290dfe3405f26a8a58e07f7eff6dc.png



Phoenix... Typical Monsoon Season rainfall average = 2.43"

1974:


139799955_Screenshot2023-07-21at10-43-26Monsoon.png.2481b65367820773e9bb57796e99f35a.png

1995:

1372915979_Screenshot2023-07-21at10-42-57Monsoon.png.a510e0db1049be7a196ba752c256381d.png


While a similar outcome this year is not a guarantee,   it is perhaps something worth watching....  Between the two years, July of '95 stands out since both areas saw little / no rainfall that month, but ended up above average for the season..

Tucson has already received a little rain this month, possibly more to come soon.  Phoenix may record something before the month ends.. 

🤞 ....We'll see what happens..

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Just topped out at the hottest day for the year here at my place 97.3 now down a couple of degrees. 

50E1054D-E479-4AAD-AA58-C0D10AFDFE73.jpeg

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3PM check in...

Hot, ..but not quite as extreme right now as the last few days have been at the same time.  Increase in moisture mentioned earlier ( 55deg. here in Chandler atm ) may be holding temps. down just a hair.. A lot of haze in the air today as well.


2103355669_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-02-00ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.030e9eccf63cfd312136424f7e457715.png

1177299498_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-02-32ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.6b738d642dee2c6b6024e88298556f3e.png

2009934348_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-02-52ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.0418c26eab95567768bc986a6862e4eb.png

1205006656_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-03-28ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.77c3ccbc077a2e6580ca8e7ae176e59b.png

618362752_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-03-40ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d93800d77efe7168dac8a36e8bb02839.png

87648856_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-03-49ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.57b8f06ac3b219808bbc8daac3205249.png

A look at the Satellite ( College of Dupage Nex Lab True Color  imagery ) paints an 🤔 picture for the evening..

879918365_CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Desert_SW-truecolor-2201Z-20230721_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-31-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.cd0d32cc9d0974842367403174df1e0d.gif


High pressure center is spending the afternoon somewhere over N. AZ near ..or just west of Flagstaff..  and will be drifting north into Utah through the rest of the day / tonight / tomorrow.  

While not perfect, flow underneath the high is ideal for priming the pump as far as increasing moisture / storm chances go.

Though tomorrow / Sunday looks better, it isn't entirely out of the question the flow out of the east is strong enough to offer up a chance of scattered showers passing over the valley sometime tonight ..Nothing heavy or widespread, but ..it is something..  and possibly the opening act to a more active pattern setup ahead.  18z HRRR ( AZ WRF Wx Model Data ) is seeing a similar possibility, as well as the possibility of stronger than previously forecast storms making their way into Tucson this evening.

Not pictured in the " Sub- regional " view:  Former MCV ( Mesoscale Convective Vortex ) i mentioned earlier currently headed west off the Baja Spur  could work it's way north around the western edge of the 4C high toward California  tomorrow or Sunday..


Latest point and click forecast update includes the chance  -slim as it may be-  of some showers / weak storm or two roaming around the valley sometime this evening / overnight..  Was not in the forecast earlier today.


1182011803_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-31-167-DayForecast33.29N111_91W.thumb.png.8b9b82aacfde63de50a75da8faf786e9.png

Tucson's forecast:

355362817_Screenshot2023-07-21at15-42-067-DayForecast32.33N110_99W.thumb.png.3d364819de0ecb3f702b98a86bdd021a.png



Not set in stone of course, but something to 👀 closely this evening.. 

At the very least, more clouds, possibly dusty breezes rolling into and through the valley this evening may take the edge off the heat ..for a few hours at least
..  Hot, but below 115F tomorrow.

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Hot and Humid 105F on the way to the lower 100-Teens later, unless cloud cover lingers longer into the afternoon..   Could we see some storms this evening?? 

Overall setup continues to improve as the 4c high drifts toward the 4 corners/ S.W. Colorado.  As i'd expected, Tucson got slammed again last night, as storms tried ..but failed  to reach the Valley up here..  Little dust and a few ..very brief pop up storms / showers on this side of town around 11Pm, but.. Dry otherwise.    We'll try again tonight.     Tomorrow looks even better.....


SPC has the area under " marginal " Sev. Storm risk both days.
 

511636336_Screenshot2023-07-22at10-19-40NWSPhoenix.thumb.png.e16724239c993d06ea101c2fbf6e66e1.png



..Some additional light at the end of the extended forecast tunnel as well??..   Fingers crossed..

464591861_Screenshot2023-07-22at10-22-57ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.58f0db2314ef6b6ac72305f61dae9461.png

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I expected some rain today but it didn't come. The last couple of days always predicted at least some bit of rain but nothing came down. Trees everywhere are starting to drop massive amounts of leaves. I also waited for the rain so I wouldn't have to water the garden but today I had no chance and I gave it a good amount. Today's high was 26.5°C, the low 17.4°C. Until noon it was cloudy it then cleared up with clear blue skies until clouds appeared after the sun went down. 🌥️☀️🌵

  

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117F as we close in on 3PM..

While not quite as hot yesterday as the rest of the week had been, today is trying to make up for it w/ numerous 118-120+ readings on neighborhood Wx stations. While the dew point has dropped 10 deg since this morning, 50 instead of 60,  you can  can feel that extra moisture as soon as you walk outside.


276546325_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-48-29ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d9c50fdeacf3fd9fd12414d2af73a4eb.png

176819886_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-48-49ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.134520e801e4a9980e0774f2a717f5d4.png

1529774148_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-49-40ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.25f3606b21ff8a77517806df8d75bd9f.png

1301248321_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-49-26ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.a3494521acc2101ac528b97c1d221d9c.png




Hot as it is atm, relief,  may be just a few hours away.. 

Current, 18Z AZ WFR HRRR  has changed it's tune regarding the possibility of storms rolling into town this evening..  ...A bit more optimistic, compared to thoughts from other model runs today..  🤔


**** Per the usual caveat, ..This is just one model's thoughts..  Things can change, again.  ****

We'll see if these thoughts actually pan out.


8:00PM:


828114751_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-43-44WRFRADAR.png.765b09dc6c82e36ee1929ba64a73ba6c.png

9:00PM:

1277627864_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-45-23WRFRADAR.png.39d6fb7f8c5fdd1100070843e85ee3f5.png

10-10:30PM

1902536756_Screenshot2023-07-22at14-44-20WRFRADAR.png.f8ca87a95949478a2cb6ad8ef7aeebbd.png

👏Cross  👏Those  👏Fingers /  Wash your cars ( A Phoenix / Tucson thing ) folks!!


 ...You know where i'll be if / ..or when..   the Lightning starts  :greenthumb:

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102 under cloudy and  kinda humid, and dusty skies..

Earlier thoughts for storms in/ around the valley this evening?   .............

We'll try again tomorrow..

So, where did all the energy for storms up here go?   Some of it is headed toward Puerto Penasco atm..

The good news is this massive MCC,  ( Mesocale Convective Complex ) ..Possibly the largest so far this season,   over Sonora should give the 4C high  ..currently centered over S. Utah, ( Is part of the reason did not make it out of the mountains tonight  ) a good nudge to the east, and pump another surge of Gulf moisture into AZ overnight as it slides off to the Northwest toward California..


486910399_CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Baja-13-0506Z-20230723_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-44-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.ecc75a263cd139e362d92c9d70e593e3.gif

Speaking of that,  Don't be surprised if the remnants of this one generates some widely scattered sprinkles/ very light showers over parts of  S. Cal  sometime tomorrow.

Again, we'll see what tomorrow brings..

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Max of 25C / 77F here on Sunday. Rant time however. This July has been shite. It is legit the worst July that I can remember. The lack of sun and heat being the main two issues. After the dullest first half to a July on record here, it looks like we will finish the month with a UK max of just 30.2C / 86F, which is shockingly low, plus it came in early-July. The last 2 weeks of July are supposed to be the hottest period of the year, yet it is going to be the coolest part of summer so far. What a joke. This wasn't in the playbook.

 

If June wasn't so good, I can only imagine how bad it would look. That warm, dry June is making this crap July less noticeable and less of an issue. Although June is actually going to trump July for average high, absolute max and sunshine hours. It really goes to show how poor this month has been. I am now rating it a 2/10, but that will drop down further to 1/10 by the end of the month. Looks like a max of only 20C / 68F on Monday too. Wow. A shockingly poor month by just about every metric. Worst July since 2007 here. August better deliver something.

Average max at Heathrow during the last week of July is around 27C / 80F nowadays. Yet nothing above 24C / 75F for us in the forecast. That is crap! 🙄

796927280_Screenshot2023-07-23at17_15_32.thumb.png.2ccb5d0bd5820f88fb4971a86c6c4b3e.png

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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A beautiful bright sunny day heading for 22c before the rain comes back from the rest of the week. 

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We finally got rain today! Thunderstorms have been passing through all day, interrupted by some sunny bits. It's very refreshing as the air feels purified. Today's high was 24.9°C and we had a low of 18.7°C this morning. ⛈️🥰

Capture2.thumb.PNG.f1f374db37d5a9d2421cababe06e7112.PNG

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@UK_PalmsIt's very strange that the jetstream pretty much for the whole of the month has been sending us weather from the arctic circle. I could only image what it would be like if it was December right now. The jetstream in the USA and Canada seems to be abnormally high over eastern Canada sending us all this crap weather. On the positive side despite being 3c below average for this month, some pretty tropical palms such as Bismarckia nobilis, chambeyronia oliviformis and chambeyronia macrocarpa are still growing despite the very cool temperatures for the time of the year. Which makes me think they don't need as much heat to grow as once thought. It does probably help though that a lot of nights here have been above 60f and it's has been more humid than usual.  Despite the rain the grass is still fairly yellow that I could see when coming in to land at Heathrow the other day.

Screenshot_20230724-210114899 (1).jpg

Edited by Foxpalms
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It's generally around the first week of September that I get to the point where the accumulated heat of summer gets to me.

 

Almost one full week left in July, after a mild June, and I'm there already. 115 today after missing a possibility of a little rain and upper 70's last night. May have missed 0.01" once or twice overnight but have not observed rain in many moons. As is said. Looking forward to low 100's at the start of next week - if it holds this time.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

It's generally around the first week of September that I get to the point where the accumulated heat of summer gets to me.

 

Almost one full week left in July, after a mild June, and I'm there already. 115 today after missing a possibility of a little rain and upper 70's last night. May have missed 0.01" once or twice overnight but have not observed rain in many moons. As is said. Looking forward to low 100's at the start of next week - if it holds this time.

 

 

Mid June- ..about now  ..or mid- ish August is when the heat and i really don't get along..  That said, the past two years, '21 esp., heat wasn't really a big deal.

Same boat here.. We've come close to storm passing nearby, only to have it collapse at our doorstep.  Plenty of dust the other night ..some last night, and the smell of rain in the air, ..but  ..waiting..

Definitely a wait and see if we see anything this weekend, let alone the suggested cool down.

Next thing to be watched concerns how long a cool down / any better rain chances may stick around..

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Max of 23.1C / 73F. It started off sunny and lasted most of the day before cloud cover and rain moved in tonight. A continuation of the poor theme with below average daytime temps.

 

Such crap weather. I can't believe how bad this July has been for sunshine hours and heat. I moaned loads about July 2021, but this has definitely been worse than that. The worst July since 2007 and it isn't even close. At least it is warmer than San Francisco still. That's what it has come to! :lol:

122935071_Screenshot2023-07-27at02_38_38.thumb.png.d2e7d7bcf8c11dcd0bd39b68c48351e1.png

 

This is one of the coldest airmasses on record for the time of year. It is certainly the coolest, cloudiest end to a July that I can ever remember in my lifetime. Even 2007 wasn't this bad at the end. This is probably the worst summer month that I have ever endured. It looks like a number of cold records have fallen over the past 24 hours. Some of the coldest late July nights on record under clear skies. Daytime maxes running below average. Strong winds and quite a bit of rain. It has really felt more like October than July. Such a poor month.

image0.thumb.jpg.e0464bff3def6c8cac57be4c828ab66c.jpg

 

Southern Germany also looking very cold for the peak of summer with maximum temps of about 13C / 56F in the Munich area. Regensburg to the north only reaching 12C / 54F.

1366247750_thumbnail_image1(1).thumb.jpg.1460c66fd4c74a58c8f5e57420690e3e.jpg

Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Quote


NWS Phoenix
@NWSPhoenix
·
1h
Dust storm rolling north through Pinal County towards the SE Valley with 1/4 mile visibility or less and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Pull Aside, Stay Alive. #azwx

 

Can confirm.

 
Edited by Palm Sundae
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1 hour ago, Palm Sundae said:

 

Rolled through this side of the valley as well.. as well as some rain / pretty good light show ..Finally. :greenthumb:

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22 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Rolled through this side of the valley as well.. as well as some rain / pretty good light show ..Finally. :greenthumb:

Hi Nath....mate, a question for you.... i'm following a discussion on a weather forum whereby quite a few posters are questioning the accuracy or otherwise of the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport weather station.  Now. looking at the siting of the station I would agree that it's not ideal as in very close to the runway/taxiway etc.
What do you think ? Does the siting and UHI have a bearing on the max and min temps there ( given that extreme heat is mostly 'spatially coherent' and all things being equal there shouldn't be a great deal of variation other than altitude and UHi for max temps and topography and UHI for min temps ?

 

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9 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Hi Nath....mate, a question for you.... i'm following a discussion on a weather forum whereby quite a few posters are questioning the accuracy or otherwise of the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport weather station.  Now. looking at the siting of the station I would agree that it's not ideal as in very close to the runway/taxiway etc.
What do you think ? Does the siting and UHI have a bearing on the max and min temps there ( given that extreme heat is mostly 'spatially coherent' and all things being equal there shouldn't be a great deal of variation other than altitude and UHi for max temps and topography and UHI for min temps ?

 

UHI may have some influence... but hard to say how much..  Don't go anywhere near downtown,  or the airport,  so i can't say where the sensor is located / what the landscape surrounding it looks like / anything that might influence readings from it, or not.  From what i understand, NWS has very specific standards that have t be met when they set up their weather official stations. 


With this heatwave, there hasn't been a ton of variance in overnight lows across the entire valley,  developed areas esp.  ...so, if for example, Sky Harbor dropped to only 93F,  the local, municipal  Airport's reading ( here in Chandler ....Much less dense development around that airport ) has only been dropping to 87-90F ....Which is still way above the average.  ..Many other neighborhood stations between here and downtown PHX were in a similar range. 

As mentioned in the past, i use neighborhood stations for gauging the high / low in my neighborhood ..since i don't live next to ..or on the property of... an airport..  What is "official" at Sky Harbor, or downtown  is not official at my house / within a square mile or two of it..


Curious as to who is questioning what about Sky Harbor's readings ...and why. 

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A Cloud temperature -based view recap of last night's surprise storms.. 

For reference: White, to Purple to Green  colors = warmest cloud temperatures.  Yellow to dark Orange / red ( ..and occasionally  blackish brown w/ some white { not in this particular storm complex } ) cool to extremely cold ( and high ) cloud tops.



1104430655_CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Phoenix-13-0826Z-20230727_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-77-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.27e6005f1a966e56a6db93633650e444.gif

 

Last few evenings, we'd had storms form over ..or just northwest / east.. of Tucson, then try to make a run up I - 10 toward Phoenix ..or at least parts of town.  In all but last night's case, those storms would collapse well before reaching the county line. 

Last night, storms managed to break that spell and worked their way into ..at least.. the East and Northeast sides of the valley.  On a scale of 1 to 5, i'd place this storm event at a marginal magnitude 3...  Pretty good light show, ...esp for areas near downtown where there was an impressive flare up of lightning activity ( Can see this on the Satellite view as the last storm in the line forms just north east of Downtown Phoenix. ) Was very evident while watching it form / progress.. ( A " Flare up " = the non-stop " strobe light " effect of frequent lightning often seen in storms that are progressing into / through a strong intensification phase.  )

Lots of dust / wall of dust rolling through town extending several K ft into the atmosphere.. Wind,  and decent rainfall totals for many ..though limited to mainly east side locations. Was also some damage and power loss issues noted in a few areas as well.

Earlier in the evening, the same general storm complex itself generated a brief Tornado warning over the open desert due south of Casa Grande..


 While on radar last night, it looked like Sky Harbor might finally be getting some rain, apparently, they did not..  Can see that some areas in  N. Mesa / Scottsdale, Gilbert, and the ( mainly ) open desert areas ( for now ) between Apache Junction and Queen Creek did ok rainfall-wise. 

Closest Flood control district gauge near the house registered 0.04". Would've been nice to see 0.40"- 1.00", but i'll take whatever falls..   Can see who the winners ..and losers were last night. 

In case anyone is wondering, this is a fairly typical pattern when we get rain,  esp. this time of year ..some parts of town get dumped on, while others ..even a couple miles away,  may not get a drop.
 


1617223039_Screenshot2023-07-27at11-04-46ALERTDataMap.thumb.png.69ae4c7ff330d2d7518f182d78dfc2f3.png


As is the usual case after an active night, tonight / tomorrow night may be quiet,  though it being clear this morning / now can sometimes change that " typical " outcome ..so we'll see if any storm activity develops / moves towards the valley later.  I doubt it,  but, ..the Monsoon plays by it's own rules.. Not ours.

110+ Heat continues, thru -at least-  Saturday.   We'll see what the weekend ahead brings.

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4 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

UHI may have some influence... but hard to say how much..  Don't go anywhere near downtown,  or the airport,  so i can't say where the sensor is located / what the landscape surrounding it looks like / anything that might influence readings from it, or not.  From what i understand, NWS has very specific standards that have t be met when they set up their weather official stations. 


With this heatwave, there hasn't been a ton of variance in overnight lows across the entire valley,  developed areas esp.  ...so, if for example, Sky Harbor dropped to only 93F,  the local, municipal  Airport's reading ( here in Chandler ....Much less dense development around that airport ) has only been dropping to 87-90F ....Which is still way above the average.  ..Many other neighborhood stations between here and downtown PHX were in a similar range. 

As mentioned in the past, i use neighborhood stations for gauging the high / low in my neighborhood ..since i don't live next to ..or on the property of... an airport..  What is "official" at Sky Harbor, or downtown  is not official at my house / within a square mile or two of it..


Curious as to who is questioning what about Sky Harbor's readings ...and why. 

Merely the siting of the sensors I'd say....not ideal by the looks of the pics
h3Rqz93l.jpg
YGeLhrGl.jpg
DAuuLFhl.jpg
w6EJ0iHl.png

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11 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Merely the siting of the sensors I'd say....not ideal by the looks of the pics
h3Rqz93l.jpg
YGeLhrGl.jpg
DAuuLFhl.jpg
w6EJ0iHl.png

Ideal /  not ideal,     that's a question for anyone with a question to ask the NWS Office.  I'm sure they'll have an answer.

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We got lots of rain the last couple of days. Thunderstorms are breaking heavy rain followed by sunny bits and so on. Today's high was 24.9°C with a low of 18.3°C this morning. I really appreciate the rain tbh but I hope it won't become too much in at once in one place. ⛈️:greenthumb:

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On 7/27/2023 at 4:15 AM, UK_Palms said:

Max of 23.1C / 73F. It started off sunny and lasted most of the day before cloud cover and rain moved in tonight. A continuation of the poor theme with below average daytime temps.

 

Such crap weather. I can't believe how bad this July has been for sunshine hours and heat. I moaned loads about July 2021, but this has definitely been worse than that. The worst July since 2007 and it isn't even close. At least it is warmer than San Francisco still. That's what it has come to! :lol:

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This is one of the coldest airmasses on record for the time of year. It is certainly the coolest, cloudiest end to a July that I can ever remember in my lifetime. Even 2007 wasn't this bad at the end. This is probably the worst summer month that I have ever endured. It looks like a number of cold records have fallen over the past 24 hours. Some of the coldest late July nights on record under clear skies. Daytime maxes running below average. Strong winds and quite a bit of rain. It has really felt more like October than July. Such a poor month.

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Southern Germany also looking very cold for the peak of summer with maximum temps of about 13C / 56F in the Munich area. Regensburg to the north only reaching 12C / 54F.

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Are you sure those temperatures in Bavaria aren't night time lows? I would wonder if temperatures were that low considering the heat in Southern Europe and much higher temperautes here in the West. I also haven't seen such low highs on the radar. 🧐 I mean 11°C? No way. Though I do know that temperatures around Munich can flucturate extremely but mostly in winter.

  

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The heat goes on.... 113F at 2:06PM

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Suggested uptick in rain chances still looking ok for the weekend / start of the week, though ..right now, i'm a little concerned the Easterly Wave / Inverted Trough that is forecast to boost those rain chances may slide by a little further south / make the turn north a little further west than has been forecast..

Way this season is going thus far, i wouldn't be totally surprised if we miss out on the good rain chances.  We'll see..

While just one of a couple forecast model runs.. If we get -any rain, ..and the associated cool down that comes w/ it, Sunday-Tuesday ...enjoy it ..because the next stretch of  *** bleepin *** extreme heat may return later next week as rain chances tank,  ...again..

How strong ...or long...  that heatwave sticks around -if it occurs, may hinge on what the 12Z GFS is suggesting toward mid month..  From one extreme to another right??? ..Not buyin' it, ..but.. who really knows anymore..  

One thing that stands out is the *** potential *** for the high to strengthen enough again to generate  600+mb heights over the Southwest just after our " break not really a break ",  let alone seeing 600mb readings over the Midwest.
later.


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There was a discussion over on Weather West concerning this subject.  ...the " Theoretical limit" for 500mb heights..  Some had assumed that a high pressure area w/ associated heights right at 600mb was close to that limit ( and fiercely strong as- is ). As Climatologist Daniel Swain ( Who runs Weather West ) pointed out the actual limit may be a bit higher and that High pressure areas in which 500mb heights exceed 600mb ..potentially even 610mb  may come to pass in a warmer climate..

For context:  595-600mb heights are what has brought about the 29 ..and counting.. days above 110 / several days above 115 / 3 or so days ..in a row.. of 119F heat here  ALL  month..  600mb heights over the Midwest could translate to surface temperatures reaching the 110 range  ...IF...  that happens..

I can't even imagine just how hot it could get beneath a high pressure ridge whose 500mb heights reached / exceeded the 600 - teens / twenties, even if just for a day or two..  Think about that..


Again.. more than likely, what is showing up is just a few wacky model runs spitting out these suggestions and not something to take seriously

..Then again, Who'd have thought parts of the PAC. N.W.,  and nearby British Columbia could have seen temperatures exceeding 120F.. 

Needless to say, watching this closely..  Same with those rain chances this weekend / Monday..

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36c /97f straight for the past 7 days.

Lows: 28c

It has been a scorcher.

 

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5 year high 42.2C/108F (07/06/2018)--5 year low 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)--Lowest recent/current winter: 4.6C/40.3F (1/19/2023)

 

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Friday: Min of 64.4f/18c max of 78f/25.5c with 57% humidity

Saturday: Min of 62.6f/17c max of 76f/24.4c with 43% humidity. 

Yesterday, Sunday: Min of 60.1f/15.6c max of 70f/21c with 54% humidity. It was nice and sunny in the morning then later from around 12 it drizzled. Hence why the temperature was so low, that and the way colder than usual airmass above us. Thursday was also a funny day here. The min on Thursday was 62.6f/17c with a max of only 73f/23c however the humidity was unusually high all day the min humidity was 74%. Which is certainly not something that happens often here in the summer. It felt like what some parts of the tropics might feel like in the winter such as somewhere like Noumea. The max dewpoint was 65.5f. There are signs currently that all this crap weather will end around mid August and its forecasted to be around 28-29c and very sunny however we will see. The jetstream at the moment is very messy and all over the place.

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It's raining here.

Temp 83 and falling.

Humidity 53% and rising.

Mostly thunder/lightning but...  rain. A few hundredths of an inch. First measurable observed here for Monsoon. Some areas nearby  have had some in the last week, not here.

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11 hours ago, Palm Sundae said:

It's raining here.

Temp 83 and falling.

Humidity 53% and rising.

Mostly thunder/lightning but...  rain. A few hundredths of an inch. First measurable observed here for Monsoon. Some areas nearby  have had some in the last week, not here.

Overnight temp dropped to 75. Humidity went up to 73%.

I no longer have reliable precipitation readings for my yard, which can vary substantially from closest available readings. Suspect it was at least 0.25 inch. A welcome, but late, start to Monsoon.

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3 hours ago, Palm Sundae said:

Overnight temp dropped to 75. Humidity went up to 73%.

I no longer have reliable precipitation readings for my yard, which can vary substantially from closest available readings. Suspect it was at least 0.25 inch. A welcome, but late, start to Monsoon.

I think we dropped to about 80F for a few hours last night..  Some popcorn-type storms around parts of town last night / last few days but nothing at the house. Hopefully we get something tonight or... may have to wait until sometime around / after the 15th, lol..






Hot / humid atm ..but not bad ..downright cool compared to the last 31 days ..Will it rain tonight?? ..the 20 Million dollar question..

Inverted Trough / Easterly wave that was supposed to bring the region good rain chances over the weekend  weakened considerably as it reached Sinaloa. Has ..and will continue to wash out as it passes over the state  but will provide at least one more day of decent dynamics for storms..

See nothing today, it could be a week / 10 days before rain chances return ..which means another episode of heat.  That said, troughing which is forecast to set up over the northern states during the same time period should temper how strong the high can get ...or is the current forecast suggestion.   Going with that, this round of heat could be short lived. Overnight lows don't look quite as " hot " as they have been either.    We'll see.

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On a side note,  an uncommon ..and classic example of a MCV ( Mesoscale Convective Vortex ) currently working it's way west over San Diego and the rest of S. Cal..  Same complex that formed just south of here last night, and gave Yuma a decent soaking..

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As it passes over the area, possible this disturbance generates some showers / storms over - at least - the mountains around S. Cal. this afternoon / evening..   IF  it is active here tonight, and another storm complex heads west overnight,  parts of S. Cal could see some adtnl. rain/ storm chances tomorrow.

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Whilst I definitely don't trust the jetstream at the moment it looks like mid August should be better. The lows here also tend to be few a degrees warmer than weather online typically suggests. On the 15th there's even a 24c 850hpa temp showing on the gfs run just south of here if that would move up towards us that could mean 36,37,38c easily. The gfs runs are also showing 22c lows for central London and it's always warmer than that. We will see weather the jetstream delivers better weather. Almost all gfs runs are all also showing 39-40c temperature only 110 miles south of here in northern France.

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Ended up 25c today, warmer than London! The rain is coming back in tomorrow though for a couple of days, up to 20mm according to BOM.

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A high of only 23.3°C today. Despite that a low of 18.5°C this morning. Endless thunderstorms and sunny bits. It constantly changes from blue skies to thunderstorms with massive rainfalls. Yesterday was the wildest so far with the daytime high not exceeding 22°C and constant heavy rainfall almost all day. Weird and a bit too much but still appreciated as it might switch back to no rain and heat for weeks anytime. ⛈️:greenthumb:

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A little hot n' humid after ~some~ rainfall last night..   Lookin' like that is it for the rain for ..about a week, maybe 10 days  as we dry out ( again, lol ) and warm up..  I say " warm " only because this next go - around w/ 110f highs looks tempered, rather than shooting for extreme territory again.  We'll see..


Some MCFCD totals from last night..  Last night's storm wasn't a classic, Monsoon Season " Rip Snorter " ( Warren Faidley reference ) ..at least not up here. Was down in Tucson though. 

As you can see, another ...mainly East valley event w/ where rain fell..  Which means the " official " rain gauge at Sky Harbor continues it's looonnggg streak of not recording rainfall.  Unless something changes, looks like that streak will continue thru at least  through mid- month.

Here at the house.. the nearby gauge reading of  .12" fits with my thoughts regarding what fell last night.  Light, ..but steady.. rarely heavy.


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Despite the ...near daily beastly storms rolling through Tucson of late, been watching their totals closely.  Overall, not bad for July.. but under performing -so far- compared to '21.

Tucson Itnl. Airport gauge and a look back at the previous few years for comparison:  Doing alright  to this point compared to all but '21 ( Pretty tough to beat that July total, lol )


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24 hr totals for Pima CO.

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30 Day totals for Pima CO.. Of note: 

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Despite the better ( than most of the greater PHX ) rainfall totals down / around Tucson thus far, very obvious Monsoon '23 has been on the drier side ..so far at least.


We'll see what August has in store. 🤞

Screenshot 2023-08-01 at 10-05-17 Chandler AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast Weather Underground.png

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Been a pretty lousy summer, afternoon storms nowhere to be found... highs in 102-105F range for the forseeable future. 

Will August 2023 be hotter than July? 😂 Hottest ever? Stay tuned

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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Just like yesterday but more severe... Thunderstorms coming out of nowhere with heavy rain for a few minutes and strong winds then sunny calm weather and so on. All day long. It's a bit weird to be honest. I can't even count the amount of thunderstorms in one day. Temperature high today was 24.6°C. Low 17.4°C. ⛈️☀️🤷‍♂️

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A reasonable 105F at 2:52PM under partly cloudy skies as whatever moisture is left from the weekend gets scoured out.  You know the story going forward.

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A look at July from the Tucson NWS.  Phoenix has yet to put out their July climate dashboard..   When the i's and T's  have been dotted and crossed, very curious to look at the past month's stats from across the entire state.. Pretty sure there should be some interesting data for the high country / S.E. AZ

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...And yet, it continues..    

Knowing Tucson in August, this is a little eye opening.. Yea it is still hot down there during Aug. but can't recall it getting nearly this hot.

Unlike up here, Doesn't look to say as hot down there after the weekend and they may see 20-40% rain chances return mid to late next week..  We'll see.


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Something for CA to keep an eye on..  NO ..And i'll say it wayy ahead of time..  there are currently no suggestions of a Tropical system reaching the state as E. Pac activity looks to flare up again, but, some moisture streamin' in / storm-generated swell reaching the beaches in some areas is a possibility at some point next week..   If    some of what has been suggested by various model runs the past few days comes to pass.. ( remnants from one of these storms getting pulled north by a trough passing over the Pac. N.W. )

We are entering that time of year when tropical system - generated moisture surges tends to ramp up, so ..We'll see what the next 60-ish or so days brings for the region.


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Speaking of the heat..  Not just the U.S.Hemi.  seeing crazy heat..  How about 100F, in Winter, at 3-4Kft ..in the Andes..    Again, August in the S. hemi. = ~roughly~ Feb. up here during " winter " .. Pretty crazy..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/02/southamerica-record-winter-heat-argentina-chile/

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In July we got 36.1C (lowland area). Although not particularly unusual, it's more like later August and September.  On 1 Aug.  got to 35.2C. Forecast for today is 35C and then 34's and 33's for the rest of the week. Of course, dry as the proverbial. Last rain 2.6 mm on 27 April.

There's a lot of dry air being pushed up from Antarctica which heats rapidly during the day and cools rapidly at night. Seems like it's occurring to a more extreme extent in South America, and to a lesser extent here.

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Edited by tropicbreeze
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